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Week 16 Primer: Analyzing All 16 Games (Fantasy Football)

Week 16 Primer: Analyzing All 16 Games (Fantasy Football)

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 47.0
Line: DAL by 5.0

QBs
Russell Wilson:
How in the world did the Cowboys become near a touchdown favorite against the Seahawks? The line opened at just 2.5, but has gone up multiple points since then. It was a nightmare game for Wilson and the Seahawks last week, but look for them to take out their frustration on the Cowboys defense this week. The game will be played indoors, so you don’t have to worry about weather, which is a bonus. The Cowboys have allowed at least 14.6 fantasy points to 11-of-14 quarterbacks, with only Eli Manning (twice) and Kirk Cousins failing to meet that criteria. What do they have in common? They’re divisional opponents. The Cowboys never see Wilson, meaning this is going to be a problem for them. Here’s their last three games against non-divisional opponents: Derek Carr 19.5, Philip Rivers 28.9, and Carson Wentz 16.0 (threw just 27 times). Prior to struggling in a divisional matchup, Wilson cranked out eight straight games with 19.4 or more fantasy points. The Cowboys have three rookies starting in their secondary, and Wilson should live up to his elite QB1 name.

Dak Prescott: I’m guessing the reason oddsmakers are confident in the Cowboys is because they will be getting Ezekiel Elliott back, which is definitely a boost, but what we need to be concerned with is whether or not left tackle Tyron Smith will play. He’s arguably the best left tackle in the game and has an effect in both the pass and run game. The Seahawks have finally started to show the losses they’ve suffered on defense the last few weeks, allowing 30 points to the Jaguars and 42 points to the Rams. I guess we’ll find out if Prescott just missed Elliott this week, because he still doesn’t appear to be himself, struggling against a very beatable Raiders secondary. Despite all the injuries, the Seahawks have allowed just one quarterback to finish better than the QB10 against them this year, and that was Deshaun Watson way back in Week 8. The reason you can be optimistic with Prescott is because the Seahawks have allowed seven different quarterbacks rush for 21 or more yards, which adds a half of a touchdown to his projection and fantasy floor. This game is likely to be a high scoring one, making Prescott a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 and one with a solid floor.

RBs
Mike Davis and J.D. McKissic:
Well, that’s what we get for trusting a Seahawks running back, right? I’ve said countless times throughout the year (and prior to the season) that I didn’t want to trust any of them, but finally did in Week 15. Davis didn’t ever have a chance, as the game got out of hand almost immediately. He only received eight touches, giving you no confidence to play him against the Cowboys this week, especially considering they’re a road underdog. Since getting Sean Lee back, the Cowboys run defense is a tougher one to run on, so it’s not even the greatest of matchups. The Seahawks backfield has still scored just one touchdown all season, and the Cowboys have allowed just six rushing touchdowns all year. They have allowed plenty of receiving yards, though, and at least 53 of them in each of their last four games, so maybe there’s hope for McKissic. He’s caught 22 passes over the last six games, making him an RB4 in PPR formats who has a decent floor. As for Davis, you’re really relying on him getting in the end zone to return value, which is a problem. He’s likely to get over 10 carries this week (like he did the previous two weeks), making him an RB3 by default, though not a high-upside one.

Ezekiel Elliott: We got Aaron Rodgers back last week, and now we get Zeke back? Too bad it comes at the expense of Antonio Brown. It obviously has nothing to do with him, but we get one and lose two. If you’ve seen pictures of Elliott since returning from his trip out of the country, he looks like he’s in better shape than he’s been in quite some time. I’m not concerned about his durability or the matchup. You watched the Jaguars and Rams running backs absolutely demolish the Seahawks defense over the last two weeks, totaling 399 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, and then another 46 yards and a touchdown through the air. Once a dominant defense, the Seahawks are now one to target with running backs, so pop Elliott right back into your lineups as an RB1 who is fresher than most players this time of the year.

WRs
Doug Baldwin:
It’s now to the point where Baldwin may not reach the 1,000-yard mark for the season, as he sits on 866 yards with two games to go. He’s been extremely inconsistent throughout the year, which has fantasy owners wondering what to do with him. He’s been a top-20 wide receiver just five times this year, but has also been outside the top-36 five times. But playing the matchups, this is one that Baldwin should destroy. The Cowboys have been forced to use rookie Xavier Woods in the slot with Orlando Scandrick out the last two weeks, but it seems like Scandrick may give it a go this week. Whatever happens, Baldwin should win this matchup, hands down. Scandrick is dealing with multiple back fractures, so even if he is back, it’s going to be near impossible to cover the route technician Baldwin. Don’t be surprised if he’s pulled after getting beat by Baldwin a few times. As for Woods, he’s a sixth-round pick who has allowed a 105.9 QB Rating in his coverage. Baldwin is a must-play low-end WR1.

Paul Richardson: Just like everyone else, Richardson didn’t show up in Week 15. The good news is that he’s seen at least seven targets in four of the last five games, which should provide a solid floor against a Cowboys secondary that has three rookies playing right now. They have allowed nine wide receivers finish as top-40 options against them over the last five games, which should allow both him and Baldwin to finish in that territory. Richardson has just one touchdown since Week 8, but leads the team with nine red zone targets, so if we like Wilson in this game (we do), we should like Richardson as a solid WR4.

Tyler Lockett: He’s the wildcard in the offense who can have a big game at any point, though he’s the most unlikely. He’s averaged just 3.0 targets over the last six weeks, which is not nearly enough to post consistent fantasy results. It’s why he’s finished with 37 yards or less in five of them. The turf should help someone with the speed of Lockett, though he hasn’t demonstrated much of his big-play ability this year, with just three plays over 22 yards. He’s better than most in the WR5 range, but that’s where he’s at.

Dez Bryant: What in the world happened last week? He saw just four targets against a Raiders secondary that cannot defend wide receivers. There’s been a trend in Bryant’s numbers recently, as he averaged 9.7 targets per game over the first 10 games, but has averaged just 5.3 since that time. It’s odd, too, as it’s been during the time the Cowboys didn’t have Elliott, so you’d think they would throw to their only other playmaker. So, do the targets come back now that Elliott is back? Over the last three weeks, the Seahawks have allowed four wide receivers to post top-24 numbers, so there’s a definite possibility for Bryant to get back on track. He’ll primarily match-up with rookie cornerback Shaquill Griffin, who has been playing throughout the year, not only because of the injuries. He’s been solid, so it’s not a cake matchup or anything, but one that Bryant can win with the targets. Consider him a WR2 for this week, and one that can score two touchdowns if given the opportunity.

TEs
Jimmy Graham:
Kudos to Sean Koerner who posted a tweet earlier this week that stated Graham has been the third-highest scoring tight end the last two weeks… on the Seahawks. Crazy, right? He’s now totaled exactly -0.1 points over the last two weeks on five targets. This may sound odd, but we should’ve been expecting some regression for Graham. Did you know that he’s totaled just 472 yards this year? That’s less than Austin Hooper. I’m not kidding. His nine touchdowns have hidden what’s been a very down year for him. With that being said, the Cowboys have shown some real weakness against tight ends as of late. Through their first seven games, they didn’t allow a single top-12 performance, but in the seven games since, they have allowed four of them, including three games with 16.9 or more PPR points to Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper, and Hunter Henry. If you’ve made it to the finals despite Graham’s disappearance, he’s likely to find the end zone in this game, making him a TE1.

Jason Witten: He’s one of the tight ends who has totaled more yardage than Graham this year, though it hasn’t been pretty. He’s been a top-eight tight end three times, been outside the top-40 four times, and everything else is in-between TE10-TE20. The Seahawks have done really well against tight ends as of late, allowing just 49 yards to the last five starters combined, meaning they’ve averaged less than 10 yards per game. On the year, quarterbacks have just a 75.5 quarterback rating when targeting their tight ends against them, which is the second-best in the league. Witten is just a mediocre TE2 this week, which is where he’s been most of the time.

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 40.0
Line: ARI by 3.5

QBs
Eli Manning:
What in the world happened last week to the Giants offense? It was pretty crazy watching Manning throw for 434 yards and three touchdowns against an Eagles defense that has played well for the most part. Will it continue against the Cardinals, though? After allowing seven different quarterbacks total at least 17.4 fantasy points against them from Weeks 1-10, they’ve settled in a bit, holding 4-of-5 quarterbacks to 15.8 points or less, including Jared Goff, Marcus Mariota, and Kirk Cousins over the last three weeks. In fact, the only quarterback who has scored more than 15.8 points against them since Week 10 is Blake Bortles, and he didn’t throw a single touchdown, but ran in for two of them, something we know Manning won’t do. Knowing they’ve cleaned up their defense with Budda Baker taking over at safety, Manning is nothing more than a low-end QB2 in this game.

Drew Stanton: I wish I didn’t have to write a paragraph on him, but against the Giants, we have to at least consider whichever quarterback is playing. Stanton has been so bad, which is why it was shocking to see Bruce Arians announce him as a starter. Over the last two years, he’s completed 64-of-140 attempts (45.7 percent) for 645 yards (4.6 YPA), five touchdowns, and five interceptions. Now, the Giants did just allow Nick Foles to throw four touchdowns against them, and have held just one quarterback to less than 15.9 fantasy points since the start of Week 4, and that was Alex Smith in the game where there were 25 MPH winds. Because of that, Stanton is most definitely in the QB2 conversation, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable recommending him to those who are looking for a streamer in standard leagues.

RBs
Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman:
It seems like Gallman may be the one for the Giants going forward. He’s played 73 snaps over the last two games, compared to just 41 for Darkwa, so it’s possible that they’re trying to see what they have in him before the offseason, which makes sense with the coaching change. With that being said, neither of them are running backs you should aim to play in Week 16. Despite all of their struggles, the Cardinals have been a great run defense this season, allowing just 3.38 yards per carry on the season, which ranks fifth-best in the league. They’ve also allowed just seven rushing touchdowns on the season, including just one over their last four games. Gallman is just a weak RB4, while Darkwa is not a recommended play at all.

Kerwynn Williams: We’ve faded Williams for the last two weeks and it’s ultimately worked out, especially if you play in a PPR format. He’s not a part of the passing game at all, meaning he better be scoring touchdowns or racking up the yardage. He’s witnessed his yardage go down in each of the last two weeks, and hasn’t scored since way back in Week 1. It’s really been hit-or-miss against the Giants for running backs, as six of them have finished inside the top-10, but all other starting running backs have finished outside the top-20. Williams is likely to get 15 carries or so, making him a high-floor RB3/RB4 option, but nothing more.

WRs
Sterling Shepard:
It seemed to catch everyone out of nowhere, but they knew Shepard was going to see eight-plus targets, right? When you are seeing that many targets in a matchup without a top cornerback, you deserve a spot in fantasy lineups. The Cardinals are likely to shadow him with Patrick Peterson, which is concerning, because he’s among the best in the league. The reason for optimism, however, is that they don’t typically have Peterson go into the slot, which is where Shepard plays about 75 percent of his snaps. This reminds me of last year when Stefon Diggs was playing out of the slot, and the Cardinals allowed Peterson to shadow him into the slot. Diggs wound up with six catches for 37 yards on seven targets. Shepard is in the WR3 conversation, but there is plenty of risk if the Cardinals decide to stick Peterson on him all game.

Larry Fitzgerald: The move to Stanton doesn’t hurt Fitzgerald much at all, as he’s totaled 15 receptions for 183 yards in the two games that he started. The Giants obviously don’t worry you very much, especially when they allowed fellow slot receiver Nelson Agholor 7/59/1 last week. The secondary is not playing well, and that includes Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who allowed all four targets in his coverage last week to be completed for 32 yards and a touchdown. Fitzgerald will come with some risk because of who his quarterback is, but he belongs in the low-end WR2 conversation.

TEs
Evan Engram:
He’s now seen a ridiculously-high 35 targets over the last four games, which is numbers we aim for with wide receivers, let alone a tight end at the most volatile position in fantasy football. While the Cardinals were once an extremely tough defense against tight ends, they haven’t been this year. There have been just five tight ends who’ve seen more than five targets against them, and every one of them caught at least five passes, and four of them scored 15.9 or more PPR points. He needs to be in lineups as a TE1.

Ricky Seals-Jones: After having a week to establish himself in a great matchup, Seals-Jones failed to impress, totaling just two catches for 11 yards on six targets. He also saw a lot of his targets once Blaine Gabbert took over, so we have no idea about the relationship between him and Stanton. With Jermaine Gresham out, he didn’t see much of a snap increase, as Troy Niklas played double the snaps. He does appear to be their No. 1 pass-catching tight end, even with Gresham on the field, so we have to at least consider him against the Giants defense that has now allowed 13 top-15 tight ends against them. In case you’ve forgotten, they’ve only played 14 games. There aren’t many sure things at tight end, so Seals-Jones definitely belongs in the streaming conversation, though it’s about as risky as it gets.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

Total: 44.0
Line: PIT by 9.5

QBs
Ben Roethlisberger:
This is a crossroads that I hate to come to in Week 16, as I don’t want to play Roethlisberger on the road, but I also don’t want to pass on a solid quarterback playing against the Texans soft defense. We’ve talked about this before, but hey, let’s do it one last time for old time’s sake. Here’s the splits for Roethlisberger on the road over the last four seasons:

Games Pass Comp Pass Att Comp % Yds/gm TD/gm INT/gm FPts
Road 29 22.9 35.7 64.1% 267.1 1.14 0.97 14.27
Home 27 27.1 40.1 67.6% 333.8 2.78 0.89 23.58

 

When extrapolating those numbers over a 16-game season, they would amount to 4,273 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. To give you a comparison this year, he’s essentially been 2017 Jay Cutler who has 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, though Roethlisberger has slightly more yardage per game. On top of that, he’s without Antonio Brown, his favorite target. The Texans have been so bad, it’s hard to avoid him, though. Since Week 6, there’s been just one quarterback who’s failed to score at least 15.1 fantasy points against them, which is high-end QB2-type numbers at minimum. I may regret it, but Roethlisberger is a low-end QB1 on my board this week while playing indoors, which should eliminate some of the risk with him.

T.J. Yates: He’s thrown for just 303 yards over the last two weeks on 57 attempts, though he has thrown three touchdowns on them. The Steelers have been struggling ever since Joe Haden went down, but rumor has it that he’ll return this week. Still, they’ve allowed just 17 touchdowns through 14 games, while intercepting 14 passes. If you’re relying on Yates to win you a fantasy championship, you’re likely still dreaming… so wake up. You aren’t playing him in anything fantasy related.

RBs
Le’Veon Bell:
Knowing how bad Roethlisberger has been on the road, what has that done for Bell? He’s actually averaged more points on the road over the last four years, though it’s not much of a difference. The Texans run defense hasn’t struggled nearly as much as the pass defense has, but they’ve seemingly given up. After allowing just one rushing touchdown over the first 11 weeks, they have now allowed seven touchdowns over their last four games. Keep in mind that they didn’t play any top-tier backs in that time, either. Just one running back has topped 100 rushing yards against them since Week 5, which is why they are one of just two teams who have allowed just one 20-point PPR running back all season, with the Titans being the only other one.  You’re playing Bell with all the touchdown upside, so why are we still here? He should see tons of targets in the passing game as well, so his ceiling is higher than most.

Lamar Miller: We’re witnessing what might be the beginning of the end for Miller as the starting running back for the Texans, as he finished with a season-low nine carries and 32 yards in Week 15. He’d been in-between 51-75 rushing yards in 12-of-13 games coming in, but the Jaguars did him in. We’re going to find out if it was just a one-week thing or if it’s a trend, but my suspicion is that he’s back to his 15-18 carry role this week where he’ll wind up with 70-75 yards against a soft Steelers defense that has missed Ryan Shazier the last few weeks. In the last three games without him, they’ve allowed 342 yards on 63 carries (5.43 YPC) with five touchdowns. Miller has scored in just three games this year, but those numbers are extremely encouraging. Consider him a must-play RB2 who comes with a solid floor.

WRs
Martavis Bryant:
In case you missed it, Antonio Brown isn’t playing this week, meaning that Bryant will be the No. 1 perimeter wide receiver for Roethlisberger against a Texans secondary that has allowed nine different wide receivers finish as top-12 options against them. The Steelers have had Roethlisberger drop back and throw at least 30 attempts in 12-of-14 games this year, and those targets have to go somewhere. The Texans have specifically struggled with speed as of late, allowing T.Y. Hilton 5/175/2, Brandin Cooks 5/131/2, Tyler Lockett 6/121/0, and Keelan Cole 7/186/1. He should be in lineups as a high-upside WR3, though the only risk is “Road Roethlisberger.”

JuJu Smith-Schuster: He’s actually got 11 fewer targets than Bryant, but has totaled 221 more yards and two more touchdowns. He looked like he was healthy when breaking off his 69-yard reception that was nearly a league-winner. His matchup with Kareem Jackson is tougher than Bryant’s, but not enough to scare you off him. Jackson has allowed a 75 percent catch rate in coverage with four touchdowns, so he’s far from untouchable. He’s a high-floor WR3, though I slightly prefer Bryant of the two.

DeAndre Hopkins: It’s kind of a miracle that Hopkins continues to produce, even with the third-string quarterback against the best defense in the league. He only caught 4-of-13 targets from Yates, but that was against Jalen Ramsey, one of the league’s best cornerbacks. The Steelers don’t have anyone close to Ramsey’s talent level, so there’s no reason to shy away from him. He’ll match-up with Artie Burns the majority of the time, who has been consistently mediocre for the Steelers, who have now allowed 11 top-20 wide receivers over their last seven games. You’re playing the guy who got you here, and there’s no reason to think he’ll disappoint.

Will Fuller: There are still some people who ask me about Fuller, but no… don’t do it. He’s failed to record more than 44 yards or a touchdown in any game without Deshaun Watson. He’ll see a lot of Joe Haden, who is slated to return this week, and was playing well before going down with a leg injury. There’s better options on the waiver wire right now.

TEs
Jesse James:
It’s very likely that James sees an increase in targets this week with Brown out of the lineup. He’s actually seen a rather-high 17 targets over the last two weeks, though it helps that Roethlisberger threw the ball 99 times in those games. The Texans offer a great matchup, as there’ve been seven different tight ends who have finishes as the TE7 or better against them. It’s not just due to yardage or touchdowns, either. It’s both of them, as seven wide receivers have totaled 51 or more yards, and they’ve allowed eight touchdowns, which ranks third in the league. James should be on the streaming radar as a high-end TE2.

Stephen Anderson: It’s really odd that Anderson’s production has actually gone down since becoming the clear-cut starter, but he’s caught just 2-of-9 targets the last two weeks, finishing with just 16 yards in the two games combined. That should be enough to stay away, but if you needed more, quarterbacks have just a 56.5 rating when targeting tight ends, the lowest mark in the league.

Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 47.5
Line: PHI by 8.5

QBs
Derek Carr:
I cannot wait to get to the end of the season to go back and analyze what exactly happened to Carr this season, as it seems to have been a giant step backwards, though he wasn’t someone we were high on to begin with. My brother drafted both him and Ben Roethlisberger, and I told him that he’d wind up playing Roethlisberger more, despite drafting Carr multiple rounds earlier. He’s now finished outside the top-12 (QB1 range) in 10 of his last 11 games. It’s not going to help if he’s missing Amari Cooper again, which is very possible with the Raiders mathematically eliminated. This game will also be on the road where Carr has averaged just 224.5 yards, 1.1 touchdowns and 1.1 interceptions, or 13.9 fantasy points. The Eagles aren’t even what I’d consider to be an elite pass defense, but they don’t need to be in order to limit Carr and the Raiders. The reason there’s the slightest bit of optimism for those of you DFS players is that the Eagles have allowed eight passing touchdowns in their last three games, after allowing just two touchdowns in their previous four games. The Raiders will also be traveling across the country, something Carr really struggled with back in Week 3 against the Redskins where he finished with 118 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. He’s just a low-end QB2 this week, though he’d get a slight bump if Cooper plays.

Nick Foles: He’s thrown just 52 passes this season, but there’s already plenty of fantasy analysts willing to prop Foles up on a pedestal. We recorded our start/sit podcast before writing this, so I saw his consensus ranking at No. 10 this week. Really? He averaged 6.2 yards per attempt against the Giants, though the four touchdowns do mask a lot. If you want to continue projecting him for a high touchdown rate, that’s on you, but his matchups won’t get better than the one he had last week. The Raiders did struggle to start the season, allowing 19 passing touchdowns through their first 11 games, forcing them to fire their defensive coordinator. Since that time, they have allowed just 692 passing yards (230.7 per game), one touchdown, and three interceptions in all three games combined. They apparently got the memo, though they are still talent deprived. This game could feature a lot of rushing attempts for the Eagles, making Foles a tad riskier. He’s not a bad start, but he’s more of a mid-to-high-end QB2 than the QB1 most are labeling him as.

RBs
Marshawn Lynch:
What does he do now that he plays on a team that is eliminated from the playoffs? This isn’t something we’ve seen him go through in quite some time. On top of that, he’s facing a negative game-script while on the road, and he doesn’t offer much in the passing game. He’s now finished with at least 57 rushing yards in six straight games, so he’s been able to provide a solid floor despite the overall incompetent offense. The Eagles have been one of the best run-stopping teams in the league, and have still yet to allow 100 yards to any running back, but the area of hope lies since their bye week. After their bye in Week 10, they have allowed at least 64 yards to 3-of-5 starting running backs. Before their bye week, they had allowed just one running back to top 38 rushing yards in their first nine games. Consider Lynch in the group of limited upside running backs like Samaje Perine and Kerwynn Williams, which is RB3 territory.

Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement: Another week in, and another week where Ajayi has seen his highest snap-rate with the team. He played a team-high 51 percent of the snaps last week, up from the 47 percent in Week 14. This should give us more confidence when putting him into lineups, as should the fact that he led the team in receptions last week, meaning he’s going to be involved on all three downs. The Raiders have been what you’d call an extremely average defense this year, allowing 4.1 yards per carry with seven touchdowns. Seeing that opponents are averaging 27.3 rushing attempts against them, there should be enough for everyone to get a share. They’ve also allowed a decent amount of receiving yardage to running backs, though it’s unlikely they’ll need to pass very often in this game. It’s likely to be a 55/35/15 timeshare between these three, but seeing the trends in Ajayi’s snaps is very telling and give us the most confidence in him. He deserves to be in lineups as an RB3, while Blount is more of a risky RB4, and Clement is just a touchdown-hopeful that shouldn’t be played.

WRs
Michael Crabtree:
Whew, I figured that Crabtree was a must-start last week because he’d be targeted a lot, but I didn’t expect 17 targets. It was the fourth-most targets a wide receiver has seen this season, but his 39 yards were… let’s say far from ideal. He did score two touchdowns, so we can’t be too mad. The Eagles have allowed a 100-yard receiver in back-to-back games, but both of them were slot receivers, an area of the field where Crabtree doesn’t find himself very often. It’s not as if the matchups against Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby are lose-lose situations, as we saw both Tavarres King and Roger Lewis finish with 144 combined yards and two touchdowns last week. I’m not expecting Cooper to play in a game that means nothing to them, so Crabtree should approach double-digit targets once again, making him a WR2.

Amari Cooper: Don’t expect him to play in a meaningless game to the Raiders. If he does, he’s just a re-injury risk WR4.

Alshon Jeffery: The move to Foles didn’t seem to impact Jeffery as much as some thought, but we talked about it here last week, that it was a cake matchup and that he should be able to step-up even with Foles under center. The Raiders are just as talent deficient in the secondary, but for whatever reason, teams aren’t throwing to their wide receivers against them. They’ve only faced 236 targets all year, which is the third-lowest in the league. It’s likely the reason they haven’t allowed a top-20 wide receiver in each of the last four games, which included Demaryius Thomas, Sterling Shepard, Tyreek Hill, and Dez Bryant. You’re likely going to play Jeffery as a low-end WR2, but this matchup may not be as good as you think. If he does get the targets, he’ll beat their corners.

Nelson Agholor: He’s one of the players I was completely wrong on last week, as I didn’t think there’d be enough for Jeffery, Ertz, and him in the offense, but I underestimated how bad the Giants secondary actually is. He saw a very-high nine targets from Foles, giving me more confidence than I thought I could. When you see that many targets in a quarterback’s first start, good things are bound to happen. He also produced on those targets, hauling in seven balls for 59 yards and a touchdown. The Raiders slot cornerback T.J. Carrie has allowed a 71 percent catch rate in coverage, though he’s limited his opponents to three touchdowns on 81 targets, leaving Agholor as a safe-floor WR4, but as I mentioned in the Jefferey paragraph, they haven’t allowed a top-20 wide receiver since Week 11.

TEs
Jared Cook:
Welcome to the elevator that is Jared Cook. We go up, we go down, but rarely do we stay in the same spot… He’s not someone you’re going to want to trust with a fantasy championship on the line, as he’s totaled 17 yards or less in three of his last four games, and that’s despite Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both essentially missing two games. The Eagles have allowed just three top-10 tight ends this year, and every one of them scored, something Cook has only done twice this season. He’s just a mediocre TE2.

Zach Ertz: It’s fitting that Ertz is the last player I’ll write about in The Primer this year, as he’s been a league-winner for those who took a chance on him in fantasy drafts. I mentioned last week that Ertz and Foles have a history together, and it showed in the matchup last week when he totaled 6/56/1 on nine targets. Granted, it was against the Giants, but this week’s matchup is almost just as good. The Raiders have allowed a massive eight tight ends finish as top-eight options against them. It’s not as if they’ve turned it around, either, because here’s their last three games: Evan Engram 7/99/1, Travis Kelce 7/74/0, Jason Witten 4/47/0. Start Ertz as you have all year, and expect a big performance.


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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

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