Waiting on saves is generally a recommended strategy, as there is always a high amount of turnover in the closing landscape throughout the season. And finding the right closer for your fantasy team is much more than simply picking out the most talented reliever – it is also about considering the situation in which he finds himself. How secure is his job? What is his likelihood of getting traded?
So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at the closing situations around MLB for fantasy purposes. These are obviously subject to change, as teams continue to augment their bullpen pieces and more news comes out about the pecking order as we get closer to the season. But, for now, here is your closing situation breakdown, ranked from least to most desirable for fantasy purposes.
Nail your draft by prepping with the FantasyPros Draft Kit. Cheat Sheets, sleepers & more 
30. Texas Rangers (Committee)
As you’ll see, there are about five or six teams that can be described with a shrug emoji, so whether the Rangers slot in as 25th or 30th is a bit irrelevant. There are plenty of potential closers, from Keone Kela to Jake Diekman to Matt Bush. Of course, there’s also the “incumbent” closer, Alex Claudio, who wasn’t always used as a closer at the end of last season and also does not profile as a closer, given that he’s a lefty who does not miss bats often. The Rangers also were about to sign Seung-Hwan Oh before apparent medical issues torpedoed the deal, so they are clearly still in the marker for late-inning relievers. Of all the teams, the Rangers likely have the most murky closing situation.
29. Chicago White Sox (Committee)
Juan Minaya was adequate last year filling in as the closer at the end of the season, but he doesn’t really have the necessary control to be a stopper in the ninth inning given his lack of electric stuff (more than four walks per nine innings last year and over his major league career). The White sox traded for Joakim Soria this offseason, and though he isn’t close to the reliever he once was, Soria remains effective. With the always important “closer experience,” Soria should likely get the first shot to hold the job, though it’s still up in the air at this point. Even if he does get the initial crack, absent a surprisingly competitive season for the White Sox, it’s doubtful that Soria will hold the job for more than half the season. But for now, until we get more word, it should be considered a committee, and an undesirable one at that.
28. Miami Marlins (Brad Ziegler)
Unlike with the Mets, we have some clarity as to who will get the first shot at the closer’s role in Miami: Brad Ziegler. Ziegler has anything but closer’s stuff, but he has routinely found success in the ninth inning over the past three seasons by virtue of his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He’s also 38 years old and pitching on a team that is in full rebuilding mode. Though Ziegler will be the presumptive closer to start the season, both his age and the presence of Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider suggest that he won’t be long for the role.
27. Arizona Diamondbacks (Committee)
The Diamondbacks are almost certainly going to be ranked higher in the next update of this article, because (as Fernando Rodney showed last year) once they name a closer, they stick with it. The best bet for saves right now is Archie Bradley, who put it all together last year to become perhaps the most dominant setup man in the league. He’s an obvious candidate to take over in the ninth inning, but the Diamondbacks have reportedly been having discussions about whether it’s more effective to keep Bradley available in the eighth inning or earlier so that he can be deployed to get the toughest outs. That’s certainly a plausible approach, as the Diamondbacks have both Brad Boxberger and Yoshihisa Hirano, either of whom could likely handle the ninth. If Bradley gets the job, the Diamondbacks will be a desirable situation, but for now, without any clarity, they remain a situation to avoid for the moment.
26. Detroit Tigers (Shane Greene)
Greene took over as the Tigers closer at the end of last season and was certainly adequate, totaling nine saves and finishing the season with a 2.66 ERA. But his underlying metrics suggested he pitched much worse, and either way, it’s hard to be an effective closer walking 4.52 batters per nine innings unless you have dominant stuff otherwise, which Greene does not. More importantly, the Tigers are almost certainly not going to compete, and Greene is arbitration-eligible for two more seasons at what will likely be reasonable prices. Though there isn’t much behind him in the bullpen at the moment, a mediocre pitcher with a decent contract playing on a likely terrible team is not the type of player to target. Thus, the Tigers are one of the worst closing situations in the league.
25. Oakland A’s (Blake Treinen)
It was a tale of two seasons for Treinen, who struggled mightily with the Nationals before excelling in the ninth inning after a mid-season trade to Oakland. Treinen, who tallied 13 saves with Oakland, pitched much closer to his career marks in the second half, and Bob Melvin has stated that he will be the closer entering the 2018 season. Treinen’s ability to hold the role will likely depend on whether he can limit his walks, as he’s allowed more than four walks per nine innings in two of his last three seasons. But with success last year and the job heading into Spring Training, Treinen and the A’s check in a bit ahead of the pack.
24. New York Mets (Committee)
New manager Mickey Callaway has not only already deemed the situation a committee, but has expressed his preference to keep it a committee. That’s . . . not good for fantasy owners. But Dave Eiland threw some water on that idea on Wednesday when he said that Jeurys Familia will likely get most of the saves. For now, however, the situation should still be viewed as a committee as a) Callaway obviously makes the final calls and b) Familia started showing cracks in his armor back in the 2016 season when he struggled with his control, so it’s hard to simply throw out last year’s porous numbers because of the blood clot. If Familia struggles, the Mets have a ready-made replacement in AJ Ramos, and both Anthony Swarzak and Jerry Blevins (if lefties are due up in the ninth inning) can fill in. But for now, it’s not a situation to avoid entirely.
23. Atlanta Braves (Arodys Vizcaino)
Vizcaino took over the closer’s role from Jim Johnson last season and performed extremely well, tallying 14 saves and posting a 2.83 ERA on the season. But the underlying metrics suggest he was somewhat lucky. Vizcaino’s FIP and xFIP were significantly higher than his ERA, and he allowed just a .248 BABIP despite a drop in his ground ball rate. If his numbers do decline, the Braves have plenty of other options, including Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter, and Dan Winkler. If Vizcaino can prove last year was not a fluke, he should be able to hold the job all year, but if his luck reverts to the mean, his job security may be in danger.
22. St. Louis Cardinals (Luke Gregerson)
The Cardinals signed Gregerson this offseason and declared him their presumptive closer, a surprising move considering that Gregerson had a 4.57 ERA last year and struggled to keep the ball in the yard. Gregerson may have the job as of this moment, but his hold on it should be considered tenuous, as any of Tyler Lyons, Dominic Leone, or Bud Norris could easily step in should Gregerson struggle. Gregerson has succeeded as a closer in the past, including a 31-save season in 2015, so he could easily take the job and run with it. But given how quick Mike Matheny was to switch it up in the ninth inning last season, Gregerson’s hold on the role should be viewed with skepticism at this point.
21. Minnesota Twins (Fernando Rodney)
Rodney’s numbers last season were mediocre, but when you consider how awful he was in April, it’s clear that he had an extremely solid season overall. Let’s face it, Rodney simply has alligator blood, and he has managed to prolong his career – and remain successful – far longer than his skills suggest he should have been able to. Back in the American League, and with a capable replacement in Addison Reed waiting in the wings, there are plenty of reasons to doubt Rodney. But that’s rarely been a successful strategy for fantasy owners.
20. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Blake Parker)
Parker had an excellent 2017, raising his strikeout-rate and lowering his walk-rate to eventually take over as the closer, to the extent Mike Scioscia was willing to actually make that declaration. There are few reasons to be concerned about him coming into this season, but it’s worth noting that Cam Bedrosian was considered the closer of the future at one point and remains in the Angels bullpen. And although it’s purely speculation, Arte Moreno has been known to like to make a splash, and with Greg Holland still sitting out there, it’s at least possible that the Angels make a move. But for now, draft Parker with relative confidence.
19. Baltimore Orioles (Brad Brach)
The Orioles used to represent one of the safest closing situations in the game, but the times, they are a-changin’. After missing significant time with an injury last season, Zach Britton popped his Achilles in the offseason, and he’s expected to miss approximately two months or more of the season. Enter Brad Brach, who capably filled in for Britton last season, totaling 18 saves. Brach’s 3.18 ERA was a bit of a mirage, as a drop in his strikeout-rate and jump in his walk-rate left his FIP and xFIP significantly higher. And both Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens can easily fill in should Brach falter. But Brach has had enough success in the role to warrant a decent leash, and he should likely have the job for a couple of months, at least.
18. Kansas City Royals (Kelvin Herrera)
Herrera finally got his shot to start the year as the Royals closer, and he had a . . . choppy year to say the least. He regressed from his stellar 2016 in almost every statistical category and battled injuries at the end of the year. Although he should still be the closer in Kansas City to begin the season, he almost certainly won’t be there at the end. The Royals are highly unlikely to be in contention this season and Herrera is in the last year of his deal. In other words, even if he completely finds his form, chances are that he’ll be moved to another team by the trading deadline.
17. Chicago Cubs (Brandon Morrow)
Morrow was outstanding last season with the Dodgers, but it’s a little surprising that he was signed to the be the Cubs closer. Morrow threw 57 1/3 innings last season including the postseason, but he hadn’t thrown more than 33 1/3 innings in a season since 2013. And he essentially set career-bests across the board. In other words, a team with World Series aspirations is planning to rely on an oft-injured 33-year-old who just had by far the best season of his career to be their ninth-inning guy all season. I don’t know about you, but that strikes me as optimistic. With Carl Edwards Jr., Pedro Strop, and Steve Cishek ready and able to fill in, Morrow’s job security is far from great. But Theo Epstein obviously thinks he can do the job, and he pitches for a team that should provide plenty of opportunities. So, there are certainly worse situations.
16. Philadelphia Phillies (Hector Neris)
Neris wasn’t quite as sharp last year as he was in 2016, but he wasn’t all that far off. Although he always seemed to be in danger of Pete Mackanin pulling him from the ninth inning, Neris found his way to 26 saves, and lowered his ERA by more than a run over the second half of the season (though his gains were not necessarily supported by the underlying metrics). Neris’s success last season should mean that he will get a long leash under new manager Gabe Kapler. And with an improving team, Neris could wind up as a draft-day bargain.
15. San Francisco Giants (Mark Melancon)
After several years of dominance, Melancon had a disaster of a 2017, combining injuries with ineffectiveness before eventually undergoing surgery to alleviate pronator syndrome. Early reports on his forearm are positive, and given his contract and history, he’ll obviously be given the closer’s role heading into the season. But Sam Dyson was more than capable as a replacement, Hunter Strickland has closer stuff, and Tony Watson has some closing experience. In other words, there’s no reason for Bruce Bochy to hesitate to make a change if he feels it necessary to do so. But for now, it’s fair to (mostly) write off last year’s poor numbers to the injury and assume Melancon should be effective and hold the job all year if everything goes well.
14. Seattle Mariners (Edwin Diaz)
Diaz couldn’t repeat his remarkable 2016 season, but his overall numbers – 34 saves, 3.27 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 12.14 K/9 – were more than adequate. The problem with Diaz isn’t his end-of-the-year numbers, but rather the roller coaster ride he took to get there. There were times when he simply could not throw strikes, and he was removed from the closer’s role at one point. But in the end, Scott Servais kept his eye on the ball, and made sure Diaz knew he had Servais’s confidence. With another year under his belt, the young flamethrower should find success, though it’s worth noting that the signing of Juan Nicasio, as well as the presence of Nick Vincent and David Phelps, certainly gives Servais other options if need be. Those slight negatives leave Diaz and the Mariners as a good, but perhaps not great option.
13. Tampa Bay Rays (Alex Colome)
Colome wasn’t as good as the 2016 version of himself last season, but his fantasy owners could hardly complain after he led the league with 47 saves. Colome simply didn’t miss bats as much as he needed to, seeing his strikeout percentage drop from 31.4% in 2016 to 20.6% in 2017. His walk-rate also rose a bit, leaving fantasy owners, and probably the Rays, to wonder who the real Colome is. He should likely be able to hold his role for as long as he’s on the Rays, but ultimately, that is the burning question – how long will he be with the Rays? After trading Jake Odorizzi and Evan Longoria, the Rays aren’t expected to compete for a playoff spot, and there will surely be suitors for Colome. That uncertainty, and less so the worries about Colome’s job security, leaves the Rays outside of the truly safe situations.
12. Houston Astros (Ken Giles)
Giles had a bumpy year in 2017, nearly losing his job several times, but his numbers were ultimately just fine and more than passable for any fantasy closer. The problem, of course, is that Giles completely imploded in the postseason, going 0-2, allowing 10 runs in 7 2/3 innings, and ultimately losing his role in the ninth inning. All indications are that he’ll be the closer for the Astros this season and, considering that he totaled 34 saves with a 2.30 ERA last season (which was backed up by his underlying metrics), it’s fair to write off the postseason as just a disastrous stretch and to expect Giles to hold the role all season. Still, once a closer loses his job, the aura of invincibility is gone, and Joe Smith, Will Harris, or Chris Devenski could fill the role if need be. It’s hard to feel comforted by the Astros’ situation, but it’s also hard to find too many that are better.
11. Cleveland Indians (Cody Allen)
Allen is always one of those relievers who, depending on when you watch him, can look totally dominant or utterly lost. At the end of the season, however, you know you’ll see a sub-3.00 ERA, plenty of strikeouts, and more than 30 saves. Andrew Miller‘s presence is always looming, but it’s pretty clear that Allen will continue to get the lion’s share of the saves and is in little danger of losing his job anytime soon. Although he has a fairly high floor at this point, his ceiling remains low, as he’s never topped 34 saves in a season. But in the grand scheme of relievers, you could do far worse than Allen and the Indians.
10. Pittsburgh Pirates (Felipe Rivero)
Rivero burst onto the scene last year, taking over as the closer for Tony Watson and totaling 21 saves with a 1.67 ERA. His reward was a four-year contract worth $22 million, a strong sign that the savvy Pittsburgh front office believes in the young lefty. There’s no reason to think that Daniel Hudson will threaten Rivero’s job, but it’s worth noting that Rivero’s 2017 season was essentially the best version of him that we’ve seen, and there’s no guarantee he can repeat it. Even if he does, save chances for the Pirates will likely be few and far between, which keeps Rivero and the Pirates just a tick below the elite level.
9. San Diego Padres (Brad Hand)
Go back and read the write-up on Rivero and you’ve pretty much got the gist of Brad Hand and the Padres. Hand is an outstanding lefty who totaled 21 saves after taking over for the incumbent last year and was rewarded with an extension. Hand has had a bit more time in the majors than Rivero and already had a fantastic season under his belt, so it’s fair to have a little more confidence in his ability to continue to find success. Regardless, there’s little behind Hand right now in the bullpen, so his job should be in no danger. If he pitched for a better team, he might rank higher, but for now, Hand and the Padres slot in at number nine.
8. Washington Nationals (Sean Doolittle)
Doolittle did extremely well with the Nationals, with 21 saves in 30 appearances, and Dave Martinez said he’ll remain the closer entering the season. Just like last year, there are plenty of options behind Doolittle, as both Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Madson have a ton of closing experience. But the real threat to Doolittle is simply his health – he threw only 52 2/3 innings between 2015 and 2016, and always seems to be battling some sort of injury. But, for now, that is about the only reason to doubt Doolittle, who finds himself as the main man on one of the powerhouses in the league.
7. Cincinnati Reds (Raisel Iglesias)
The knock on Iglesias is really just that he’s so capable of pitching multiple innings that the Reds don’t hesitate to deploy him in the eighth inning even when the game is tied, limiting his save opportunities. But that’s about it. And the upside is that Iglesias throws more innings than most closers, so his sterling numbers have more of an impact than nearly any other reliever. Iglesias is under contract for several more seasons and there is no one of consequence behind him, so the ninth inning should be his for the foreseeable future.
6. Toronto Blue Jays (Roberto Osuna)
Osuna set a career-high in saves last season with 39, and he did plenty of great things otherwise. Although his ERA was 3.38, he lowered his walk-rate and raised his strikeout-rate, and his “struggles” were largely a product of bad luck, as he had a ridiculously poor 59.5% left-on-base percentage. The only true worry with Osuna is that he missed a minimal amount of time with anxiety, and that’s obviously not an ailment that can be quantified in terms of how much time, if any, he could miss in the future. The best approach is to ignore that component, and continue to target the Blue Jays and Osuna as a fantastic relief-pitching option.
5. Milwaukee Brewers (Corey Knebel)
Knebel was better than fantasy owners could have hoped for after taking over for Neftali Feliz, garnering 39 saves with a 1.78 ERA and an absurd strikeout rate. If there’s anything to worry about with Knebel, it’s that he struggles to limit walks, approaching nearly five walks per nine innings last season. That’s been a problem for Knebel throughout his career, and it could create issues for him in the closer’s role if he is unable to limit hits like he did last season. But after last season, there’s little reason to expect Knebel to suddenly become hittable, and with how the Brewers have improved this offseason, there is little reason to lack confidence in Knebel at this point.
4. Colorado Rockies (Wade Davis)
The completely unhittable version of Davis may be gone, but the present version is still pretty darn good. His walk rate is starting to trend into the danger zone, and he’s obviously moved into one of the worst hitting environments in the game, but Greg Holland showed last year that a hard-throwing righty can easily succeed in Colorado. Most importantly for Davis, his three-year contract gives him complete job security, and the Rockies should again be playoff contenders and provide him plenty of opportunities. In other words, the Rockies now have one of the best closing situations in baseball. Weird.
3. New York Yankees (Aroldis Chapman)
Chapman battled through a shoulder bug last season that seemed to affect his performance. Whether it was the injury or just a slump, Chapman was bad enough to lose his job for a bit over the summer, before rebounding in September and continuing his recovery through the postseason. There’s plenty of talent behind Chapman if he struggles again, as both David Robertson and Dellin Betances could see save chances. But for now, assume Chapman’s blip over last summer was just that, and have faith in the Yankees’ situation.
2. Boston Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel)
After two years of decline, Kimbrel rebounded in a big way in 2017, notching the lowest walk-rate of his career and second-best strikeout rate. Kimbrel was virtually unhittable, with a .140 batting average against and a 0.68 WHIP. He did total just 35 saves, however, as the Red Sox do not find themselves in all that many close games. But after Kimbrel returned to peak form, there should be zero concern with the Red Sox closing situation.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (Kenley Jansen)
Jansen just continues to get better and better, and he put together the finest season of his illustrious career in 2017. He’s now topped 40 saves in three of the last four seasons, and had an absurd 14.36 K/9 rate last year. Pitching at an elite level for a playoff-caliber team, there is little doubt that Jansen is your top closer this season, and the Dodgers are the best closing situation.
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | Google Play
Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow his on Twitter at @danharris80.
