Happy Fourth of July Eve! If you are a typical person during this week, you are grilling outside and talking to your family, neighbor, or just about anyone else who will listen to you discuss LeBron going to the Lakers, or how insane the World Cup has been. Since you probably don’t have a ton of time to do DFS research this week (but if you did, you’d have quite the leg up on your competition), I’ve found a lot of the value picks for you below. There is a Coors game on tap, along with Lucas Giolito and Alex Cobb sightings. Take advantage.
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On a more serious note, America is the land of second chances. And scrolling through my Twitter feed last night, an unreal Kevin Pillar highlight caught my eye. Pillar made a mistake last year regarding his language and actions, but he has righted himself and made himself a better human. He made this play, which to my estimation, has not gotten enough attention perhaps as a result of his mistake so I wanted to bring it to your attention in case you missed it:
Tough to rob a homer with a wall that high.@KPILLAR4 just made it look easy. 😱 pic.twitter.com/O2BQw1gVQW
— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2018
May you enjoy your holiday.
Pitcher
Dallas Keuchel (HOU): $8,500 vs. TEX
Keuchel has been the definition of inconsistent over the past month. He’s been shelled by the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mariners, while earning quality start shutouts against the Royals. Given that he is facing the Rangers tonight, he is more likely to be “Good Keuchel,” even if they hit him hard last time they faced him, and the Ballpark at Arlington tremendously benefits hitters. The Rangers rank in the middle of the pack in homers, wOBA, and BABIP, and don’t appear to fare better against left-handed pitchers. Everyone beneath Keuchel in dollars on this slate is just as volatile as he is, so you might as well go with the past Cy Young winner.
Anthony DeSclafani (CIN): $7,600 vs. CWS
This poor guy. He has always shown so much promise (3.28 ERA, 7.66 K/9 in 123 innings in 2016), but injuries have simply derailed him. So far this year, he has a 4.45 ERA in 28 innings, and is averaging just under 15 points a game in DK. However, he gets to face the White Sox. Regardless of Desclafani’s home park being a launch pad, it’s the White Sox. He should provide some nice value, which should help you stack up on some bats.
Other Notables
Domingo German (NYY): $8,500 vs. ATL – dominated in his last start, but the Braves have a great lineup
Andrew Heaney (LAA): 7,700 @ SEA – got rocked by the Red Sox last time out, but still has a sub-4 ERA with a good K rate
Danny Duffy (KC): likely to be under-owned, better as of late, but the Tribe could smash him
Catcher
Yan Gomes (CLE): $3,200 @ KC
Gomes is hitting in a pitcher’s park on Tuesday, sure, and he hasn’t been all that hot lately. But, remember that line about the Tribe potentially smashing Duffy? Well, it starts here. Gomes is 9-for-23 lifetime against Duffy with two homers and three doubles. In what is a fantasy wasteland, I like the safe floor here at the low price.
Other Notables
Wilson Ramos (TB): $3,600 @ MIA – quietly been a top 3 catcher in 2018
Max Stassi (HOU): $3,500 @ TEX – Great hitter’s park, poor opposing pitcher. You do the math.
First Base
Eric Hosmer (SDP): $3,800 @ OAK
Ah, do you remember the days when first base was deeper than shortstop? I sure do. Nowadays, and especially with this slate, it seems that first base drops off a cliff. After Hosmer, there’s a swamp of guys who I currently would not touch, mainly due to being cold (does Greg Bird ring a bell?) or being on the wrong side of a platoon on Tuesday (Yonder Alonso, for example). Hosmer has stolen base upside, even if he’s not likely to hit a home run. A’s pitcher Chris Bassitt has been wild, so the ability to get on base and score runs is a big reason to get Hosmer in the lineup. Personally, I’ll be paying up for a guy like Joey Votto or Edwin Encarnacion. If you don’t toss Zach Greinke, get Matt Carpenter in the lineup – he mashes Greinke.
Other Notables
Ryon Healy (SEA): $3,600 vs. LAA – if you don’t go Heaney as your SP2, could be a value play here
Second Base
Whit Merrifield (KCR): $3,800 vs. CLE
Whit has a lot of things going for him on Tuesday night. Thing 1 is that he is facing Justin’s cousin, Shane Bieber (just kidding). Bieber has been great since coming up to the big leagues, but he’s shown some cracks in his armor that are not being discussed (90% strand rate, higher walk rate than the minors). Thing 2 is that Cleveland just lost LeBron James, and are very likely to be mopey and lethargic in the field. Okay…that’s just a theory. In all seriousness, Merrifield is crafty and can provide points in many different ways, and again, there’s not much going on beneath him.
Other Notables
Jonathan Schoop (BAL): $3,400 @ PHI – was just given a 3-day mental break, which should help him reset to the All-Star that he is
Third Base
Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,800 vs. HOU
The Beltre Watch continues yet again in this space. Beltre is 21-for-68 lifetime against Keuchel, which includes two homers, seven doubles, and an astounding eight walks. If you don’t throw Keuchel, you got to have Beltre in the lineup – simple as that.
Other Notables
Christian Villanueva (SD): $3,800 @ OAK – can make for a nice contrarian stack with Hosmer
Todd Frazier (NYM): $3,600 @ TOR – opposing pitcher Estrada inconsistent as they come, 7-for-22 lifetime against him
David Freese (PIT): $2,900 @ LAD – solid track record against Kershaw, also qualifies at first
Shortstop
Scott Kingery (PHI): $3,300 vs. BAL
The only basis I have in getting good vibes from Kingery is that 1) he did well against a poor starter Friday night and 2) he faces a very poor starter Tuesday night. Alex Cobb has a 6.75 ERA and 50 Ks in 74 2/3 innings. Kingery should be able to collect all the points.
Other Notables
Aledmys Diaz (TOR): $3,100 vs. NYM – last time I checked, Zach Wheeler isn’t that good, and he’s the slated Mets’ starter
Andrelton Simmons (LAA): $3,900 @ SEA – Simmons is truly an offensive stud now, and he should fare well against Wade LeBlanc
Outfield
Brandon Guyer (CLE): $2,900 @ KC
Guyer is 1 for his last 40 against righties. Good thing Danny Duffy is a lefty, and boy, does he crush Mr. Duffy. He is 7-for-14 against him with a homer and two doubles. At a broader level, Guyer has 22 of his 28 career homers against lefties, and has hit .278 against them. Putting Guyer in your lineup will then allow you to put together a nice Indians’ stack.
Marcell Ozuna (STL): $3,600 @ ARI
Ozuna is 6-for-14 lifetime against Zach Greinke with three bombs. Ozuna has shown more life lately, hitting .324 with seven homers over the past month. He has not gotten that recognition on DraftKings, and you should take advantage.
Manuel Margot (SDP): $3,500 @ OAK
Margot has been doing well over the past 83 at-bats, collecting 24 hits with two homers. He has yet to really flash his speed in 2018, but he’s capable of getting a multi-steal game any night. He will pair well with a Villanueva/ Hosmer combo.
Other Notables
Any starting Reds outfielder (Jesse Winker ($3,900), Adam Duvall ($3,400), Billy Hamilton($3,400)) not named Scott Schebler. The Reds are red-hot and facing Lucas Giolito, and you need to take advantage of that.
Be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB. Go get ’em!
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Carmen Maiorano is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.
