FanDuel NFL Cash Game Lineup Advice: Week 10 (2019)
I’m serving as a pinch-hitter this week for the FanDuel NFL Cash Game Lineup Advice piece, but the format should look familiar. Some of the highest-priced options are featured below as building blocks on cash rosters, but they’re offset by some value options to make it work. Additionally, one super-cheap defense stands alone as the only touted play in this piece in order to free up salary space for the heavy-hitting offensive options.
Lamar Jackson (BAL): $8,600 at Bengals
My preferred cash games quarterback option is forthcoming, but if you’re ponying up, Jackson is the guy (with an honorable mention for Drew Brees noted below). Jackson torched the Bengals in the middle of October for 30.64 FanDuel points, rushing for a whopping 152 yards and a score while adding 236 passing yards. He was without his best field-stretching receiver (who is highlighted below), so there’s some potential for him offsetting likely rushing regression with more impressive pass numbers this go-round.
Having said that, Jackson should still do significant damage against the Bengals on the ground again. Cincinnati’s yielded the most rushing yards (352) to quarterbacks this year, per Pro-Football-Reference. Obviously Jackson’s massive outburst impacts their overall rushing yardage allowed to quarterbacks this year, but even if you eliminate the 152 yards he rushed for in their previous meeting, Cincinnati’s rushing yardage total coughed up to quarterbacks would be the second-highest total. Jackson and the Ravens boast a gaudy implied total of 27.5 points, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and the dual-threat quarterback should eat.
Kyler Murray (ARI): $7,700 at Buccaneers
Speaking of dual-threat quarterbacks eating this week, Murray’s my favorite cash games option at quarterback when accounting for a sizable $900 discount spinning down from Jackson. The Cardinals are 4.5-point underdogs, but they have a solid implied total of 23.75 points.
Murray has flashed in his rookie season both as a passer and a runner. In nine games this year, he’s eclipsed 300 passing yards three times, tossed multiple touchdowns three times, and rushed for more than 30 yards in four games. He showcased his massive weekly ceiling in a soft matchup in Week 6 against the Falcons, erupting for 340 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and adding 32 rushing yards.
He’ll have another opportunity to showcase his massive ceiling this week in a soft matchup against a different NFC South club. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Buccaneers 26th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Bucs have ceded the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Look for Murray to further Tampa Bay’s woes defending the pass, and pass along the savings of using him at quarterback to some of the other big-ticket players on this slate.
Christian McCaffrey (CAR): $10,500 at Packers
There’s no bigger-ticket player to spend some of your savings using Murray at quarterback on than Run CMC. McCaffrey’s 1,244 yards from scrimmage are the most in the NFL, and they’re 12 yards clear of second-place Dalvin Cook‘s mark totaled in one more game. He also leads the way in rushing and receiving touchdowns combined with 13, rushing yards per game (110.1), and rushing touchdowns (10). Of course, McCaffrey’s value doesn’t end at what he does on the ground, and among backs this year, he’s third in receptions (42) and receiving yards (363), and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (three). He was a limited practice participant Thursday, but barring bad news in Friday’s practice, gamers should be prepared for this matchup-proof stud to be all systems go. Don’t get sticker shock and make the mistake of fading a player who’s providing fantasy scoring that’s akin to using two players in one roster spot.
Devin Singletary (BUF): $6,700 at Browns
Injuries have limited Singletary to only five games this year, and they also helped delay his first blowup game until last week. In Week 9, he throttled Washington for 95 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries while adding 45 receiving yards on three receptions. His usage was massive, and it was his third game catching at least three passes, demonstrating his value in the passing attack and helping make him game script proof. He’s just the 14th-most expensive back this week with his salary failing to catch up to his usage last week, and volume’s king in fantasy, so don’t look this gift horse in the mouth in a solid matchup against a Browns defense that’s surrendering 4.87 yards per carry and 10.02 yards per reception to backs thus far this year, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Michael Thomas (NO): $8,700 vs. Falcons
The Saints are 13.5-point favorites with a silly implied total of 32.25 points. Their offense received a lift prior to their Week 9 bye with the return of Brees, and they’ll come out of the bye licking their chops in anticipation of facing a pass defense that FO ranks 31st in DVOA. Even with Brees out, Thomas was a monster.
For the year, Thomas leads the NFL in receptions (73), receiving yards (875), and receiving yards per game (109.4). He’s also added four touchdown receptions. Speaking of touchdowns, Lineups ranks the Falcons 31st in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Among receivers this year, Thomas’ 13 red-zone targets are tied for the fourth most, again according to Lineups. In Week 8, Brees targeted him twice in the red zone, and one of the passes resulted in a 9-yard touchdown reception. Brees completed all 11 of his targets to his stud wideout that game for an impressive line of 11-112-1. Thomas should have little trouble torturing a Falcons’ secondary that’s tied for the third-most FanDuel points per game allowed to wideouts this year.
Marquise Brown (BAL): $5,300 at Bengals
Brown’s a much cheaper piece of exposure to Baltimore’s tasty implied total than his second-year quarterback is. “Hollywood” has missed some time with injuries and hasn’t bested 50 receiving yards since Week 2, but his 3-48-0 line on four targets last week is nothing to sneeze at against New England’s lockdown secondary and in his first action since Week 5. The sledding will be much easier for the field-stretching wideout this week in a matchup that’s dreamy for his skill-set.
Cincinnati’s been burned for an eye-popping 16.2 yards per reception by receivers this year, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most 20-plus yard passes this season (36), according to NFL.com. As I said, Brown’s a field-stretcher, and his average depth of target of 12.2 yards that’s tied for 21st deepest among receivers and tight ends targeted a minimum of 40 times this year, per Sports Info Solutions, substantiates that claim. He doesn’t necessarily need a boatload of targets to do damage and hit value at his modest salary, and he’s my favorite cheap receiver this week on FanDuel in any format.
Mike Gesicki (MIA): $5,300 at Colts
The tight end position is weak this week. Hunter Henry and Darren Waller played in the Thursday Night Football game, George Kittle — if he’s healthy enough to suit up — and the 49ers play Monday night, and the Eagles duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are on bye. Paying up for Travis Kelce is an option (and he’s in the other notables section), but my preference is to pay down for Gesicki or a forthcoming tight end who’s flopped by staring at the cream-of-the-crop matchup for tight ends.
Miami’s second-year tight end has been in a groove since the team’s Week 5 bye. In four games since the bye, he’s eclipsed 40 receiving yards in a game three times and hauled in three or more passes in each of those games. Furthermore, as colleague Mike Tagliere pointed out on Twitter recently, Gesicki’s been an air yards darling among his tight end peers.
There have been just six tight ends who’ve averaged at least 55 air yards per game since the start of Week 5. #FantasyFootball
Gerald Everett 👀
Mike Gesicki 👀👀👀
— Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL) November 4, 2019
Toss in the potential for an increased role with rookie Preston Williams out for the rest of the year after suffering a season-ending injury last week and a favorable matchup, and Gesicki’s a solid value option. Further elaborating on the favorable matchup, the Colts are tied for the fourth-most FanDuel points per game allowed to tight ends this year.
O.J. Howard (TB): $5,000 vs. Cardinals
Howard’s been nothing short of a colossal bust in season-long leagues this year, but he has a chance for a bright week in an otherwise disappointing season. That’s all that matters in daily. Howard’s excellent first two seasons and efficiency made him a popular breakout candidate, so his skills aren’t in question. His usage has left a lot to be desired, however. There isn’t a better get-right matchup for a tight end than facing the Cardinals, though.
Arizona’s allowed the most FanDuel points per game to tight ends thanks to coughing up the most receptions (62), receiving yards (785), and touchdown receptions (9) to the position this year. Perhaps Howard flubs this matchup, but it’s unlikely to hurt you too much in cash contests if that happens. There simply aren’t many high-ceiling options at the position this week, Howard’s cheap, and he should be fairly chalky as a punt option against a defense all daily gamers know is getting trounced by tight ends.
Panthers (CAR): $3,300 at Packers
Stated plainly, in order to afford the likes of McCaffrey, Thomas, and others featured in this piece, paying down at defense is a must. As such, I’m not even feigning interest in other notable defenses. Aaron Rodgers takes care of the football, and the Packers have the third-fewest turnovers (seven) this year, so that throws a wet blanket on Carolina’s upside on defense.
Having said that, Rodgers’ aversion to throwing picks sometimes results in sacks. He’s taken multiple sacks in five of nine games, and he’s avoided any sacks in just one game. Over the last two weeks, he’s been sacked eight times. The Panthers have done an above-average ob getting after the quarterback. Their 25.1% pressure percentage is the 11th-highest mark this year, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Getting home with a few sacks should be enough to help them hit value at a salary that’s tied for the third-lowest salary among defenses this week. That’s good enough for me.