We are down to the last two weeks of the season, and that means the fantasy playoffs are upon us. There is one experience early in my fantasy football playing days that has stuck with me all these years that sums up my philosophy on how you handle roster decisions at the end of the year.

The year was 2006, and Marvin Harrison was one of the best players in the league. Jerricho Cotchery was also having a good year, and he was in the midst of a breakout third season, posting 82 receptions for 961 yards and six touchdowns for the New York Jets. In Week 15, he faced a Minnesota D/ST that was 31st against the pass. Meanwhile, Harrison had a Week 15 matchup against Cincinnati. The Bengals D/ST had been hot coming into that game, and they had allowed just 33 points in the four weeks leading up to the game. My opponent decided that the matchup was tough and that he should go with Cotchery over Harrison in the fantasy playoffs.

Cotchery never materialized that week, and even though he played a struggling Vikings pass defense, he finished with just six receptions on nine targets for 56 yards and no touchdowns. Harrison also had nine targets that week and finished with eight receptions for 86 yards. The difference in their games was that Harrison also had three touchdown receptions. That roster decision by my opponent allowed my team to narrowly sneak into the fantasy championship round. Meanwhile, my opponent had to wonder why he benched a future Hall of Fame wide receiver that was still in his prime for a journeyman player. That decision cost him a chance to play for a fantasy football championship.

That lesson taught me something that’s very important to remember at this time of year. As tempting as it is to play the hot young player in the sexy matchup, and as frustrating as some veteran players can be in tough spots at the end of the year, stick with your stars. It is one thing to play around with your flex or try to stream a better kicker. The last thing you want to do at this time of year is to make wild roster decisions by chasing good matchups, only to leave a ton of points on your bench. More fantasy championships are lost than won by fantasy managers trying to be analytical geniuses with matchups when the right play is to play your star players.

If you need some help with your roster and want to pare down a few underachieving players to pick up some waiver-wire help, here are some players that you should be able to safely cut in Week 15. Good luck to everyone as we hit the most important part of the fantasy season.

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Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Jeudy was one of my favorite players in the 2020 NFL Draft, but a bad quarterback situation has torpedoed his consistency. However, two other Denver receivers have been making the most of the situation, and Jeudy has fallen behind them in recent weeks. Tim Patrick has averaged 14.6 fantasy points in his last three games (I’m not counting the Saints game because no quarterback was playing for Denver that week). K.J. Hamler is averaging 10.1 fantasy points per game, although most of those came in Week 14 against Carolina.

Jeudy is the WR106 over the last four games, with 11.4 total fantasy points to his name. Even if you adjust that to take out the New Orleans game and assume he would average the same number of points as he did in the three contests he played with a quarterback, he would be the WR89. I just don’t see the value of hanging onto the third wide receiver in a bad passing offense. I think Jeudy is a tremendous talent that will have fantasy value next year, but he has just not been able to put up big fantasy numbers on this chaotic and inconsistent offense.

Denver Receiving Production; Last Four Games

Sammy Watkins (WR – KC)
There is this prevailing thought that because Watkins plays with Patrick Mahomes II, he must have fantasy upside. He has now been back for three games. Tyreek Hill has a league-leading 87.8 fantasy points in those three games. Watkins has 17.5 fantasy points, which is good for WR65. Kendrick Bourne (18.1) and Quintez Cephus (19.6) both have more fantasy points in that stretch of games than Watkins.

At a certain point, it doesn’t matter if Watkins plays with the best or worst quarterback in the league. It doesn’t matter how creative Andy Reid is on offense, and it doesn’t matter how many points the Chiefs score. Watkins had 18.0 fantasy points in the first game. He has 42.5 fantasy points in the other seven games he has played. You cannot keep rostering him based on how good his team plays. His resume has to stand on its own two feet, and he just does not produce consistently enough to warrant ownership. I will quote Bill Parcells once again, “You are what your record says you are.”

Allen Lazard (WR – GB)
I was excited when Lazard returned from injury back in Week 11. He had played well earlier in the year by posting 16.2 fantasy points against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 and 23.4 fantasy points against the Saints in Week 3. I thought he could be a nice fantasy asset for the home stretch. That has not panned out for him or fantasy managers. In the four games that he has played since coming back from injury, he has posted 2.8, 10.3, 6.5, and 2.9 fantasy points.

The player who has benefited from his return is the player I thought would be hurt by his return. I thought Robert Tonyan, who was on the downswing before Lazard came back, would continue to fall with Lazard there to take away red-zone targets. Instead, Tonyan has scored 52.1 fantasy points over the last four games, and he has posted 12.9, 15.2, 11.9, and 12.1 fantasy points in those four games. He has scored a touchdown in all four games.

Sometimes logic and reason don’t work out in fantasy football. While Lazard is a threat to post monster numbers in any game playing with Aaron Rodgers, it hasn’t worked out yet, and it would be hard for me to hold onto a player that hasn’t been fantasy viable since returning from injury.

Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)
Fournette’s role was dwindling over the last four games before his healthy scratch in Week 13. Fournette tallied only 23.7 fantasy points from Week 9 to Week 12, and he was the RB40. Ronald Jones II tallied 46.8 fantasy points, which was good for 11th. Things just came to a head in Week 13 when Fournette was a healthy scratch, and Jones II finished with 14.9 fantasy points.

Two of his last three games are against an Atlanta Falcons team that is seventh against fantasy running backs. Sandwiched in between that matchup is a dream game against the Detroit Lions 31st ranked fantasy running back defense. The problem is that Fournette isn’t even guaranteed to be an active player, and even if he does play, he’ll likely see fewer than 10 touches for the game. A healthy scratch usually means it’s time to move in another direction, especially at this time of year.

Le’Veon Bell (RB – KC)
Bell was back to being the backup running back this week, and he finished with two rushing attempts for 21 yards and two receptions for 14 yards. He was the RB47 on the week, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the RB20 with 11.6 fantasy points.

Bell is a good insurance policy for CEH in real football, but he has been a disaster for fantasy managers. He does not have good enough standalone value on his own, but he takes away just enough touches to hurt CEH and make him a more unpredictable fantasy asset. At this point, Bell is what he is, and that is the RB56 since Week 7. In the one game that CEH was not able to play and Bell was the lead back, Bell finished with 6.5 fantasy points. That was good enough for RB35 that week.

There is no upside in holding onto him, and the Chiefs play at the New Orleans Saints and at the Atlanta Falcons the next two weeks. The Saints are first against fantasy backs, and the Falcons are seventh. That is further reason to move on from Bell.

Phillip Lindsay (RB – DEN)
Melvin Gordon III has had a strong finish to the season. Throw out the game against New Orleans when the Broncos didn’t have an actual NFL quarterback, and you have a player that tallied 18.4, 14.7, and 10.6 fantasy points. The problem is that Lindsay has lost his role in the offense, with Gordon having this strong finish. In those same games, Lindsay has only 8.2, 2.6, and 4.1 fantasy points. Gordon has been a strong RB2 with RB1 upside in those games, while Lindsay has been more of an RB5 or RB6.

This Denver offense is just not strong enough to support two running backs in fantasy, and Gordon III has been the clear frontrunner over the last month. Denver has the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers on the schedule for the next two weeks, teams that are 15th and 16th against fantasy running backs. That means Gordon III is probably in line to continue being an RB2, but the matchups aren’t good enough for both Denver backs to play great football. I would cut Lindsay loose if you are still holding onto him at this point.

Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN)
Cousins wasn’t terrible in Week 14, but he wasn’t great, either. He rounded out the week as the QB16 with 17.10 fantasy points. He has two tough games coming up in the fantasy playoffs. He plays at home against the Chicago Bears and their third-ranked defense against fantasy quarterbacks, and then he’ll travel to New Orleans to play their fifth-ranked defense.

Cousins rarely plays well against the Bears. He has played the Bears four times since joining Minnesota in 2018, and he has beaten them only one time. He averages 229.75 yards passing per game, and he has five touchdown passes and three picks. It is not a good spot for him to have monster fantasy numbers.

After that, he’ll travel to New Orleans to face a Saints team that has been tough against fantasy quarterbacks. He played them on the road in the playoffs last year, and he had just 242 yards passing and one passing touchdown. I think the reality is that Cousins has a slow finish to the year against two very tough opponents. There is not much upside to hanging onto him unless your league plays meaningful Week 17 games. Minnesota closes out the season at Detroit.

Matthew Stafford (QB – DET)
Stafford has a fantastic matchup against the Tennessee Titans and their 28th-ranked defense against fantasy quarterbacks. The problem is that Stafford suffered a rib injury last week, and he is unlikely to play this week. The Lions seem destined to lose that game, so then the question becomes whether it’s worth it for them to drag him out there for the two remaining games or if they just shut him down to end a lost season.

They do have a good matchup in Week 16 against a floundering Tampa Bay defense, and if your league has meaningful Week 17 games, the Minnesota Vikings are also a good matchup. The problem is even if the Lions do put Stafford back out there, Stafford is only the QB15 over the last four weeks. I don’t think that it’s worth holding onto him in the hope that his rib injury resolves itself in time for him to play Tennessee. If you need the roster spot, releasing Stafford is a calculated gamble that should pay off for you.

Jonnu Smith (TE – TEN)
This is a gift to Smith’s managers, because every time I put a tight end in this article, the tight end seems to blow up. Read about why you should cut Tonyan and Mike Gesicki from previous weeks. The tight end has been impossible to project because there is so little talent that a hot touchdown streak vaults that tight end into the TE1 conversation. The same could happen with Jonnu Smith, as he was one of the best tight ends in the league earlier in the year.

Smith was held without a catch against Indianapolis, missed the Cleveland game, and had a great bounce-back spot against Jacksonville. He was not even the most targeted tight end on his team and finished with 2.3 fantasy points. He has not had more than 32 yards receiving since Week 6, and the touchdowns that were keeping him fantasy relevant have evaporated.

The Detroit Lions are seventh against fantasy tight ends, and the Green Bay Packers are sixth. He has bad matchups, a dwindling role in the offense that spreads targets to three tight ends, and the touchdowns have dried up. The question is whether there are any better options on the waiver wire at a position that is devoid of fantasy relevance. If there are better options, fantasy managers should explore them.

Trey Burton (TE – (IND)
Burton had scored a touchdown in both Week 11 and Week 12, and there was some hope that he might emerge at the end of the season. Instead, he has 1.6 fantasy points and 0.0 points in the last two weeks. He was not even targeted against the Las Vegas Raiders, as Jack Doyle led the tight ends in targets with three. Burton needs to be on the waiver wire at this point, as his floor is just too low to be a reliable fantasy streamer in the playoffs.

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Derek Lofland is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland.