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Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, Half-PPR (2021 Fantasy Football)


 
Discovering your draft position in a fantasy football snake draft is one of the more exciting parts of playing in a league. If you’re new to fantasy football, a snake draft means that the draft order is reversed every other round, allowing for fantasy managers near the beginning and end of the draft order to take two players in a condensed amount of time. Many fantasy managers prefer drafting early or late for this reason, while others tend to like the middle of the round to avoid waiting upwards of 18 to 20 picks until they’re back on the clock.

Below, I’ll explain my thought process and reasoning for drafting each player when I did. Using FantasyPros’ Draft Wizard, I constructed my roster with the 11th position in a 12-team, half-PPR, 1 QB, 2 Flex mock draft.

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Pick 1.11: Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
I was ecstatic to see Nick Chubb fall to me while drafting from the 1.11 spot, as he is arguably the best running back in the league. He could really break fantasy football if he saw 60 or more targets, as 11 running backs reached this mark in 2020. Nonetheless, Chubb generated some impressive statistics, ranking first in juke rate (37.9%) and second in carries of 15 or more yards (14) while averaging 5.6 YPC and racking up 12 rushing touchdowns.

Despite Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE) totaling more carries (198) and targets (51), the Browns signed Chubb to a three-year, $36.6 million deal, meaning he will continue to be fed carries. He’s an efficient workhorse back getting roughly 200 carries behind the league’s top-ranked offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus. Not to mention, Chubb plays one of the league’s easiest strength of schedules. This is a great start to the draft.

Pick 2.02: Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
What’s better than one workhorse running back? Two! Jonathan Taylor had several week-winning performances during his rookie season, including three weeks with 100+ rushing yards. Taylor scored two touchdowns in three of his final four regular-season games, which included a game against the vaunted Steelers defense. It felt like Colts head coach Frank Reich was conservative with Taylor throughout the first half of the season, ceding a lot of touches to Nyheim Hines (RB – IND), including 77 targets.

Taylor likely won’t hit the 60 target total in 2021 with Hines retaining a similar role. However, former offensive coordinator Nick Siriani took the head coaching job in Philadelphia, which means Reich could have more control of the offense with his former quarterback, Carson Wentz (QB – IND). If Taylor sees an uptick in targets with Wentz, he will finish the season as a top-five fantasy running back.

Getting two 1,000 yard rushers who both produced double-digit touchdown totals in 2020 has me excited about the way I chose to construct the foundation of my lineup.

Pick 3.11: Mike Evans (WR – TB)
Two of my favorite wide receivers, CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) and Robert Woods (WR – LAR), went off the board right before my third pick, forcing me to choose between Amari Cooper (WR – DAL), Mike Evans, and D.J. Moore (WR – CAR). Ultimately, I sided with the big-bodied wideout who set a career record in touchdowns (13) on the way to a Super Bowl LV win. That’s right, Mike Evans is my WR1 and I am perfectly fine with that. There’s a lot of skepticism towards Evans after nearly setting a career-low in receiving yards (1,006) but he’s had a full offseason to develop chemistry with Tom Brady (QB – TB).

I expect Evans’ yardage and reception totals to improve in 2021, while he may wind up with nine or ten touchdowns. Receptions and yardage outweigh touchdown totals in PPR formats based on volume. Evans is a high-usage player who makes a living in the red zone, seeing 16 end zone targets that ranked third-highest in 2020. Chris Godwin (WR – TB) and Antonio Brown (WR – TB) don’t scare me enough to deny drafting a wideout who has seen at least 109 targets in each of his seven seasons. Volume alone justifies his ability to function as a competent and reliable WR1, despite echoes of the contrary.

Pick 4.02: David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
Yet another high-volume running back fell into my lap, leaving me with no other choice but to do the sensible thing and draft David Montgomery. He is poised to really break out when, not if, Justin Fields (QB – CHI) takes starting snaps under center for the Bears. In 2020, Montgomery was fed a similar workload compared to his rookie season, carrying 247 times for 1,070 yards and eight touchdowns.

What really excites me about Montgomery is the recent signing of Jason Peters (OT – CHI) at left tackle. He’s a veteran road-grader and mauler who could set the edge for Montgomery to improve his 4.3 YPC output in 2020, including regression at the goal-line, where he wasted several lucrative goal-line touches. Damien Williams (RB – CHI) is certainly a threat to usurp touches based on his performance in training camp and the preseason but the carries will mostly go to Montgomery. If Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI) can create a notable threat opposite Allen Robinson (WR – CHI), and Cole Kmet (TE – CHI) really breaks out in year two, Montgomery will see lighter defensive formations at the line of scrimmage.

While my running backs aren’t high target-volume players, they certainly dominate the running game behind elite or improved offensive lines. Montgomery is a fourth-round pick that could wind up as a low-end RB1 if the Bears offense takes a step forward. If not, Montgomery will still get enough volume to justify slotting him into one of my two Flex spots without hesitation.

Pick 5.11: Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
Punting on wide receiver paid off, as I was able to wait and draft Tee Higgins, who is one of my favorite second-year wide receiver prospects. During his rookie season, Higgins saw the second-highest targets per snap percentage (13.4%) amongst Bengals wide receivers, averaging 6.8 targets per game. Joe Burrow’s (QB – CIN) torn ACL tanked Higgins value, as well as the rest of the Bengals’ skilled players in what was ultimately a lost season.

The addition of rookie Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) helps, not hurts, Higgins in regards to the coverage he’ll face, particularly if Zac Taylor opts to continue running 12 personnel, which was where Burrow succeeded the most in 2020. This means it would be two wide-receiver sets with Chase and Higgins split out wide, while two tight ends get added to the line of scrimmage to help execute play-action or provide additional pass protection.

Higgins averaged double-digit FPPG in six of ten games played with Burrow. A full offseason with Burrow and the upgraded depth at wide receiver make Higgins a WR3 with WR1 upside, an exciting player to draft as my WR2.

Pick 6.02: Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
Drafting a true dual-threat quarterback in fantasy football is a maximum advantage to give yourself. This is exactly the strategy I followed when taking Lamar Jackson at the beginning of the sixth round. He provides a 1,000-yard rushing floor and has scored seven rushing touchdowns in each of his last two seasons. Most PPR leagues value passing touchdowns at four points, while rushing touchdowns are valued at six points. This gives an edge to an explosive, dynamic runner like Jackson, who is able to elude the best defenders when given a few inches of space.

The Ravens completely reformed their offensive line this offseason and return a healthy Ronnie Stanley (OT – BAL) to left tackle. Left to right, all of the new linemen should fit well within the run-centric scheme of offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The one massive hesitancy with Jackson is his passing accuracy, which notably regressed in 2020. Despite the regression, he still ranked fourth in touchdown rate, scoring a touchdown on 6.9 percent of offensive snaps. Now, Sammy Watkins (WR – BAL), Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL), and Tylan Wallace (WR – BAL) provide bigger targets for Jackson to deviate from Marquise Brown (WR – BAL) and Mark Andrews (TE – BAL), making it more challenging for defenders to stifle Jackson.

Getting the QB4 in the sixth round is an incredible value. This makes my team a potent unit only six rounds in, as I have a stable of heavy-volume running backs, two high-floor wide receivers, and an explosive dual-threat quarterback. Very nice.

Pick 7.11: Damien Harris (RB – NE)
Since there are two Flex positions in this mock draft, I thought about drafting a third wide receiver. However, I chose to take a moderate risk by drafting Damien Harris. He’s a talented running back who has dealt with numerous injuries during his first two years in the league, limiting his opportunity substantially.

The quarterback battle in New England appears to be trending in the direction of rookie quarterback and 2020 Heisman finalist, Mac Jones (QB – NE). Cam Newton (QB – NE) was the team’s goal-line weapon, leading all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns (12) but finishing with a putrid eight touchdowns to ten interceptions for under 2,700 passing yards. Bill Belichick certainly won’t be pressured by fans and local media but he is too smart to ignore the talent of Jones and how he can unlock the Patriots offense under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. I expect Jones to be the starter no later than Week 4, meaning Harris will get bigger running lanes as defenses are forced to stay on their heels to prevent precision passes that effectively move the down markers.

Harris getting the majority of goal-line carries is enough to see him finish as a mid-range RB2 in 2021. James White (RB – NE) will continue to be the primary target out of the backfield but as long as Jones is under center, Harris’ stock is way up. For these reasons, I had to draft him over other competent wide receivers such as Corey Davis (WR – NYJ) and Robby Anderson (WR – CAR).

Pick 8.02: Raheem Mostert (RB – SF)
I’ve come around on Raheem Mostert after fading him earlier in the offseason. Kyle Shanahan is nearly impossible to trust in regards to projected volume with his running-back-by-committee approach, which is the primary risk when drafting Mostert. However, as my RB5, I have the ability to bench Mostert or slot him into my second Flex spot. He only played eight games in 2020, so durability issues continue to be a concern. However, when he is healthy, Mostert averages 5.0 YPC and uses elite burst to excel in the zone-run blocking scheme of Shanahan’s hybrid West Coast offense.

Trey Lance (QB – SF) is just a rookie still learning the ropes within a complex offense, however, he’s an inevitable starter before the 2021 season ends. Big play-making ability with his legs and arms will allow Mostert to see less stacked formations and wider running lanes behind the ninth-ranked offensive line unit heading into 2021. He’s a veteran within the system and will get first-team reps on a run-heavy offense. If anything Mostert allows me to have a Flex-caliber player while also creating tempting trade material for other teams in the league when injuries inevitably begin to pile up.

Pick 9.11: DeVante Parker (WR – MIA)
It certainly wasn’t an exciting pick but drafting the Dolphins’ top wide receiver in the ninth round is good for my wide receiver depth. To this point, I had only taken Evans and Higgins, while building up extreme depth at running back in the late middle rounds. Parker is entering his seventh year in the league, all with Miami, and is only 28 years old. Sure, injuries have kept him questionable leading up to plenty of kickoffs and he’s left games with hamstring issues in the past but it’s bad to play fantasy football factoring in injury history. It’s too difficult to predict with any certainty and the chance you pass up on a great player with consistent production becomes greater if you let prior injuries scare you away.

Parker only caught 63 of his 103 targets in 2020 but Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) struggled to get comfortable during a tumultuous transition as the starting quarterback. Eventually, Parker earned his quarterback’s trust, seeing double-digit targets in two of his last four starts. Will Fuller V (WR – MIA) and Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) completely transform this once conservative offense into a more explosive unit, however, Parker will be the forgotten man on many plays. He was efficient as a chunk yardage receiver, producing a 10.5-yard average depth of target (ADOT) and finishing as the WR42 in half-PPR formats on a lackluster 2020 Dolphins offense.

A more explosive offense and the possibility of a rejuvenated and sharper Tagovailoa make me happy about Parker’s ability to finish as a WR3 in 2021. Substituting Mostert or Parker in my second Flex position isn’t the best-case scenario but it does provide consistent volume, either with carries or targets. This is all you can really hope for from your second Flex position, as most of the top-tier production typically comes from a fantasy manager’s top two running backs and wide receivers. My team certainly fits that stereotype, so don’t be disappointed as the draft gets into the later rounds. Instead, try to find undervalued players or potential high-usage players to fill the final Flex spot.

Pick 10.02: Nyheim Hines (RB – IND)
It’s crazy to say it but Nyheim Hines was third in targets (77) amongst all running backs in 2020. Don’t expect much to change under Frank Reich with the addition of Carson Wentz, as he’ll likely continue to lean on Jonathan Taylor in early-down and goal-line situations while relying on Hines to relieve him and use his exceptional hands to pick up yardage on third downs.

This isn’t necessarily a handcuff situation with Jonathan Taylor as my RB2. Hines could be deployed in one of my two Flex spots if Mostert winds up losing touches to rookie Trey Sermon (RB – SF) or Parker’s nagging injury history persists. Hines carried 187 times, averaging 5.0 YPC but scoring the majority of his touchdowns through the air (5) while adding three rushing touchdowns. He’s the polar opposite of Taylor but can also function as the primary ball-carrier if injuries befall Taylor in 2021.

Pick 11.11: Russell Gage (WR – ATL)
It’s now the 11th round and I only have three wide receivers. Russell Gage, a great late-round prospect on a historically pass-centric team, remains available and I love every bit of it. Gage likely will sit on my bench but is a viable Bye Week plug-in or potential trade fodder for a desperate fantasy manager.

In 2020, Gage saw 109 targets with Julio Jones (WR – TEN) and Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL). Now, rookie Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) is assumed to be taking the second-in-command role within the offense but Gage could continue to find himself open on shorter routes, where he succeeded by averaging just 7.2 yards per target and catching 66 percent of his targets. He’s a cheap floor player with WR3 potential but the offense could slow down its tempo and pass-centric focus under new head coach Arthur Smith. I’ll gladly accept the risk compared to the upside that comes attached to Gage in 2021.

Pick 12.02: Jonnu Smith (TE – NE)
I deployed a popular strategy used by fantasy managers when they are unable or unwilling to invest high-level draft capital in a tight end. Outside of Travis Kelce (TE – KC), Darren Waller (TE – LVR), and George Kittle (TE – SF), I’m more than willing to build up my running back and wide receiver talent pool and wait for a talented tight end to take near the end of a draft. Fortunately, Jonnu Smith was available in the 12th round, which allowed me to roster a low-end TE1 who is capable of producing touchdowns. Smith was fourth in touchdowns (8) scored in 2020, adding another rushing touchdown on a designed run.

He’s a diverse talent and will be a safety blanket for Mac Jones or Cam Newton, as tight ends tend to be the safest target due to their close proximity to the line of scrimmage and quarterback. Irv Smith Jr. (TE – MIN) is another late-round tight end I considered, as his path to be the team’s second or third target leader is greater than Smith’s probability in New England. At the end of the day, I’m always able to venture onto the league waiver wire to bid on two-thirds of tight ends who went undrafted, where a few talented, league-winning prospects are hiding in the early weeks of the season.

Pick 13.11: Giovani Bernard (RB – TB)
Only a maximum of four running backs can be started in this format but I really liked Gio Bernard’s signing with Tampa Bay during free agency. He has the perfect skill set to fill the role of a true pass-catching back, allowing Ronald Jones II (RB – TB) and Leonard Fournette (RB – TB) to chew up yardage between the tackles. Bernard saw 59 targets with Cincinnati in 2020 and boasted an impressive 79.7 percent catch rate with three touchdowns.

He’s not known for his rushing prowess but Bernard did score three rushing touchdowns on 124 carries for the Bengals last season, so he’s certainly capable of punching in any goal-line carries that he’s fed within one of the league’s best offensive units. This is a great depth piece and rounds out the maximum amount of running backs I’m allowed to roster, meaning I could use him as another piece of trade bait when other needs arise throughout the fantasy season.

Pick 14.02: Baltimore Ravens (D/ST)
Not much to analyze with drafting the Baltimore Ravens D/ST unit. They are a perennial powerhouse under head coach John Harbaugh, allowing the fourth-fewest FPPG (88.94) and allowing the second-fewest points scored (291) by other teams. Getting a top-five fantasy D/ST is yet another way to give yourself an edge over other managers in your league, as consistent sacks, interceptions, yards allowed,  and points allowed can prove to be the difference in a close matchup.

Pick 15.11: Jakobi Meyers (WR – NE)
Miraculously, Jakobi Meyers has yet to score a touchdown in the NFL. He became Cam Newton’s favorite target in a disastrous passing attack in 2020 but his 72.8 reception percentage was notably higher than Damiere Byrd (WR – CHI), who saw four fewer targets (77) as the Patriots’ second wide receiver.

Meyers saw double-digit targets in 14 games, which included three games at the beginning of the 2020 season where he totaled only one target for seven yards. Now that the team recognizes his talent and sure hands, I expect him to get targets funneled despite signing Nelson Agholor (WR – NE), Kendrick Bourne (WR – NE), Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry (TE – NE). Although Newton grew an affinity for Meyers, Jones could deliver better passes in stride that allow the third-year wideout to extend plays and go the distance, finding the end zone multiple times in 2021. He’s my favorite late-round wideout, valued as the WR68 in half-PPR formats.

Pick 16.02: Jason Sanders (K – MIA)
Kickers are a controversial and highly debated topic of discussion within the fantasy football community. If you do play with a kicker in your lineup, make sure you wait until the final two rounds. I understand wanting to draft Justin Tucker (K – BAL) or Younghoe Koo (K – ATL) based on their elite efficiency and huge legs. However, there are plenty of good kickers in the league available in the last round of fantasy drafts. It all depends on their offense and whether or not they can finish in the red zone. For instance, the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins both struggled to succeed with red zone opportunities in 2020, allowing Koo and Jason Sanders to attempt the second-most field goals (39) across the league.

Sanders converted 92.3 percent of his field-goal attempts last season and could face a similar workload in 2021 thanks to a more explosive offense. As long as your kicker gets a couple of opportunities to net three to five points per game, that’s really all you can ask for.

Final Draft Grade: 97/100 (A+)

The Draft Wizard deemed my draft a wild success with a 97 A+ rating. It definitely feels good to be validated by an objective and updated source that breaks down every aspect of the decisions made while on the clock. My strategy to hammer running backs early and in the late middle rounds proved successful, as my RB2 and Flex positions were ranked the strongest components of my lineup.

Do you have thoughts on my mock draft? If so, please share them with me on Twitter!

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Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with Starting Your Own Fantasy Football League or head to a more advanced strategy – like What is the Right Amount of Risk to Absorb on Draft Day? – to learn more.

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer and editor for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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