There are only two teams on a bye this week, and there are only the usual three primetime games (Thursday night, Sunday night, and Monday night), leaving us a large player pool to select options from. Below, I break down every single game on the 12-game main slate.
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Week 8 Matchups
Game: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -13.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa has acquitted himself well in two games back from injury. However, Pro Football Focus grades his offense as the worst in pass protection. Meanwhile, Football Outsiders ranks the Bills first in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and sixth in rush defense DVOA. When these teams met in Week 2, Buffalo’s defense injured Tagovailoa and shut out the Dolphins. Toss in that Mike Gesicki‘s salary is rightfully bumped up at DraftKings and FanDuel, and I’m wholly fading Miami this week.
Bills Analysis: The Bills are commanding favorites. As I noted in Miami's write-up, their defense is elite. However, their offense is elite, too, ranking second with a per-game average of 33.8 points per Pro-Football-Reference.
Buffalo's elite offense starts with Josh Allen. Despite the Bills coming out of their bye, he ranks eighth in passing yards per game (287.2) and tied for seventh in touchdown passes (15). He's also averaging 35.7 rushing yards per game with a pair of touchdown scampers. Allen's ceiling is arguably the highest on the slate, and we project him to be the highest-scoring quarterback at DraftKings and FanDuel on this week's main slate.
Stefon Diggs is the top receiver on the team, and, according to Sports Info Solutions, he ranks sixth in target share (26.4%) and third in Intended Air Yards (780). Joining Diggs among the leaders in Intended Air Yards is free-agent addition Emmanuel Sanders, ranking 12th with 656. Sanders is serving as a fantastic vertical option for Allen, sporting the fifth-deepest average depth of target (16.8) among players targeted at least 15 times this year.
Beyond the top two options, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis could get a production lift from Dawson Knox's absence while recovering from surgery on a broken hand. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Bills utilize 10-personnel (one running back, zero tight ends, and four receivers) at the second-highest rate (11%) this year. Still, there's room for growth to that mark, as they utilized 10-personnel at a 15% rate in 2020. Beasley's the safer option with per-game averages of 5.5 receptions and 50.5 receiving yards. However, Davis is a name to file away as a near-minimum salary contrarian GPP pick.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans
Spread: LAR -14.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Rams Analysis: The high-powered Rams are commanding favorites by more than two touchdowns and successful point-after-touchdown attempts. The offense features a Big Three and ample ancillary options.
The headliner of the Big Three is stud wideout Cooper Kupp. He ranks second in target share (28.2%) and first in targets (81), receptions per game (8.0), receiving yards per game (115.6), and touchdown receptions (nine). As a result of his elite marks and soft matchup, he ranks as the WR1 on the main slate.
The second member of the Big Three, Matthew Stafford, is unlocking Kupp's excellence and thriving in his own right. The strong-armed quarterback ranks third in passing yards per game (310.3), second in touchdown passes (19), and first in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (9.32 ANY/A). Revisiting mention of this being a soft matchup, Houston's coughed up the fourth-highest Net Yards per Pass Attempt (7.5), per Pro-Football-Reference. Further, Houston, we have a big-play problem. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Texans have coughed up the fifth-highest average explosive pass rate (12%).
Last week, I was burned by touting and using DeSean Jackson against the Lions. I fell in love with his big-play potential against a defense that hemorrhages big plays, and he ran only three routes. Nonetheless, I'll continue to list him as a boom-or-bust GPP option when the Rams face a defense that struggles with allowing explosive passes.
The safer big-play option is Van Jefferson. Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee are excellent options, ranking second and third on the Rams in routes, respectively. Jefferson's just a pinch behind them. All three are GPP options.
Finally, Darrell Henderson Jr. rounds out the Rams' Big Three. He's a workhorse back in every conceivable measure. First, according to our snap counts leaders, Henderson's 81% snap share is the third-highest mark among all running backs. Second, he's averaging 16.0 rush attempts and 2.5 receptions per game, resulting in 92.5 yards from scrimmage per game and five touchdowns. A favorable game script should enhance his robust role, and his matchup is mouthwatering. The Texans rank 30th in rush defense DVOA. Further, they've coughed up the most rushing yards to running backs (891) this season at a whopping 5.24 yards per attempt. This is a smash spot for Henderson.
Texans Analysis: Tyrod Taylor has returned to practice this week, positioning him to reprise his role as starting quarterback, barring a setback from his hamstring injury. He was lights out to open the year, carving up the Jaguars for 291 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and 40 rushing yards. Taylor was cooking in Week 2 and completed 10 of 11 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown, adding a 15-yard touchdown rush for good measure. The Rams rank fourth in pass defense DVOA, so this is unquestionably a challenging matchup. Nevertheless, Taylor's salary is so low. He's a viable option that allows remarkable lineup flexibility.
His return would also enhance the outlook for receivers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins. Cooks and Taylor demonstrated chemistry in the opener, with the veteran receiver hauling in five of seven targets for 132 yards. Collins returned from injured reserve in Week 6, and he's second on the Texans with 54 routes the last two weeks. He's also tied for second in those games with six receptions, and he's alone in second with 11 targets and 72 receiving yards. Sure, those marks aren't eye-catching. Yet, if the offense takes a step forward with Taylor and Collins builds on his modest production, he can be helpful as a punt, namely at DraftKings.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Spread: SF -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
49ers Analysis: This game's total is ugly. However, what's not ugly is Deebo Samuel's statistical contributions this season. According to Pro Football Focus, among players targeted at least 15 times this year, Samuel's ranks fourth with 3.27 yards per route run (Y/RR). Further, he ranks tied for 12th in touchdown receptions (four), tied for 11th in receptions per game (6.3), fifth in target share (27.0%), second in receiving yards per game (108.0), and first in yards after the catch (310). We project him as WR4 this week. So, he's a stellar option, suffice to say.
The 49ers are favored, so rookie running back Elijah Mitchell might get the neutral and favorable game scripts he needs to succeed. This year he's played in four games, reaching triple-digit receiving yards in two, including rumbling for a season-high 107 and a score on 18 carries last week. Unfortunately, he has a bagel in targets in two games, ceding pass-catching duties to JaMycal Hasty. Thankfully, the game script projects to and the matchup skew in Mitchell's favor in Week 8. The Bears rank 17th in rush defense DVOA.
Finally, San Francisco's defense should be among the non-punts you consider using. Rookie Justin Fields is struggling mightily, launching five interceptions and taking 20 sacks in five starts. According to Pro Football Focus, among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, Fields has the eighth-slowest average time to throw (2.58 seconds) and third-highest turnover-worthy-play percentage (4.9%).
Bears Analysis: Fields' struggles discussed above make the Bears mostly a fantasy wasteland. However, rookie Khalil Herbert is rising above the offense's ineptitude to parlay a workhorse backfield role into excellent production. Remarkably, he ran for 100 yards and added five receptions for 33 yards against Tampa Bay's stout run defense last week. He's reached triple-digit yards from scrimmage in both of his starts. This week, Herbert doesn't have an easy matchup, but San Francisco's 10th ranked rush defense DVOA is lower than Tampa Bay's fourth-ranked unit. So, it is an easier matchup. Usage trumps any other context for running backs, and Herbert has it in spades.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Spread: CIN -10.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Bengals Analysis: This should be a one-sided affair for the heavily favored Bengals. Cincinnati's top daily fantasy option is otherworldly rookie Ja'Marr Chase. He's not just playing great for a rookie, either. Chase ranks 11th in Intended Air Yards (661), tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (six), third in receiving yards per game (107.7), second among players with at least 15 targets with 3.35 Y/RR, and first in yards per target (14.8 Y/Tgt).
Quarterback Joe Burrow is rolling as well. The second-year signal-caller has tossed multiple touchdowns in every game. However, he's especially hot over the last four weeks, averaging 329.0 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns. Burrow's four-game heater coincides with head coach Zac Taylor opening up the offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, in Week 4 through Week 7 in a neutral game script (i.e., when the offensive scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points), the Bengals are passing at the second-highest rate (66%).
The pass-heavy leaning offense can support more than Chase. Enter second-year receiver Tee Higgins as a nifty GPP alternative to his rookie teammate. If it's possible to quietly receive 15 targets, Higgins did last week. Unfortunately, he only hauled in seven receptions for 62 scoreless yards. On the plus, Higgins' lack of a blow-up performance this year might suppress the percentage of teams he's on slightly, enhancing his GPP appeal.
Finally, as double-digit favorites, the Bengals could revert to running the ball more this week. Joe Mixon would chiefly benefit from a more run-heavy approach coming to fruition. The Jets rank 27th in rush defense DVOA, and Cincinnati's offensive line ranks eighth in Adjusted Line Yards, per Football Outsiders. Further, Mixon's talented enough to take advantage of the matchup, ranking seventh with 77.0 rushing yards per game.
Jets Analysis: The Jets rank dead last in scoring offense (13.3). Now, rookie Zach Wilson is hurt. A fifth-round pick in the 2018 NFL draft, Mike White, is bumped up to starter duty, and he made his NFL regular-season debut last week. The situation is dire for New York's offense.
The only player who warrants modest consideration is rookie running back Michael Carter. However, he's only worth a look at DraftKings, and I'm fading him. Thus, I'm not featuring a table of usable Jets. This is a situation best avoided.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 51.0 Points
Titans Analysis: Tennessee's offense is a two-man show. Further, Derrick Henry is the clear lead dog. King Henry's name is littered atop the 2021 NFL leaderboard. For example, he leads the NFL in rushing attempts (191), rushing yards per game (124.1), touchdowns (10), yards from scrimmage (1,023), and touches (209).
Also, he's no longer threatened as significantly by a negative game script since he's setting new career-highs in receptions per game (2.6) and receiving yards per game (22.0). Equally important, his 105 routes in 2021 are 16 more than Jeremy McNichols has run. Finally, when the Titans faced the Colts in Week 3, he rumbled for 113 yards and hauled in three receptions for 31 yards in a 25-16 win. Unfortunately, it was one of only two games this year he didn't produce a touchdown. Nevertheless, he's a building block for cash games and a high-ceiling GPP option.
A.J. Brown is the other key cog in Tennessee's offense. He's tied for the team lead with two receiving touchdowns (two) and leads with 4.2 receptions and 59.0 receiving yards per game. However, his per-game totals are dragged down by exiting early in Week 3 against the Colts. Additionally, he resembles the stud we became acquainted with his first two years over the last two weeks, securing 15 receptions for 224 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets.
The matchup is right for Brown to stretch his hot streak to three games. The Colts rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA, and they've permitted the ninth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wideouts.
Colts Analysis: The Colts traded for Carson Wentz in the hopes of him recapturing his peak form exhibited in 2017, playing with current head coach Frank Reich as his offensive coordinator. Unfortunately, his offseason was marred by injury and resulted in a slow start to the season. Thankfully, he's rounded into sharper form over his last four games, tossing multiple touchdowns in each contest and adding a touchdown scamper last week. Thus, he's an intriguing value option against a mediocre pass defense.
However, Michael Pittman Jr. is the most attractive option from the Colts. He squares off against a Titans' defense that coughed up the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to receivers. The big-bodied second-year wideout leads the team in targets (50), receptions per game (5.0), and receiving yards per game (72.6). Further, he's efficient, tying for 20th among qualified pass-catchers in yards per target (10.2) and ranking 21st among receivers targeted at least 20 times with 2.11 Y/RR. As a result, our optimizer loves Pittman's outlook, awarding him the seventh-highest value score among receivers on FanDuel and the highest value score at the position on DraftKings.
Interestingly, the optimizer is enamored with Jonathan Taylor as well. It awards him the seventh-highest value score among running backs on FanDuel and the best mark on DraftKings. The excellent projects coincide with Reich seemingly finally unleashing his stud second-year back. Taylor played a season-high 69% of Indy's snaps last week. In addition, Taylor's run 46 routes in the previous three weeks compared to only 20 for Nyheim Hines. Taylor's sky-high ceiling makes him a fantastic GPP option.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 42.0 Points
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers come out of their bye for a road tilt against the division-rival Browns. Their offense leaves a lot to be desired. Nevertheless, they have a pair of usage hogs that warrant daily fantasy consideration.
First, Najee Harris leads all running backs with an 86% snap share. Despite the bye, he's also tied for third in touches (136). Harris is a bell-cow back. The rookie entered the bye on a roll, producing his three best rushing yardage totals with 62, 122, and 81. The rushing production is more than a cherry on top, but any discussion about Harris needs to include his receiving prowess. He's averaging 5.7 receptions and 40.7 receiving yards per game. Therefore, he's game-script proof with a high floor and ceiling.
Meanwhile, top receiver Diontae Johnson is locked into a voluminous role. He's received double-digit targets in four of five games played in 2021. In the outlier game, he reeled in both of his targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. Johnson's caught nine passes in three games, eclipsed 70 yards four times, and produced a 5-36-1 line in his worst performance in Week 1 against the Bills.
Browns Analysis: The Browns will either be led by Baker Mayfield and his significantly injured non-throwing shoulder or underwhelming backup quarterback, Case Keenum. Neither quarterback inspires confidence in leading a high-scoring, fantasy-friendly offense.
Meanwhile, Nick Chubb might be back from his calf injury. However, maybe he'll be eased back into a full workload after D'Ernest Johnson shined on Thursday Night Football last week. Unfortunately, Cleveland's offense isn't particularly palatable, so I'll fade it.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Spread: PHI -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Eagles Analysis: This game has shootout potential. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles play at the fifth-fastest situation neutral pace. Further, both defenses are flawed, with the Eagles ranking 23rd in defense DVOA and the Lions ranking 27th. In addition, the Lions struggle mightily containing passing attacks, yielding the second-highest average explosive pass rate (15%).
So, I'm fixated on Jalen Hurts and his top pass-catchers, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Quez Watkins. Smith's easily the top option in the passing attack, and his average depth of target of 14.1 yards is tailor-made to expose Detroit's susceptibility to explosive passing plays. Watkins isn't as heavily involved, but his average depth of target of 13.8 yards is a stylistic fit for punishing the Lions deep. So, he's one of my favorite bargain GPP options.
Hop aboard the rocket ship that is Goedert's fantasy value in the wake of the Eagles trading Zach Ertz. Last week, he played a season-high 93% of the snaps and set or tied season-highs for targets (five), receiving yards (70), and route percentage (94.6%). As a result, Goedert's a darling in our projections, projecting for a TE2 finish with the highest value score at both daily fantasy providers.
Hurts, the man throwing the ball to the trio above isn't playing at a high level from a reality perspective. Nonetheless, he's a weekly stud in fantasy thanks to his passing and rushing combo. The second-year quarterback averages 245.1 passing yards and 51.6 rushing yards per game, with 10 passing touchdowns and five scores via rushes.
Finally, Kenneth Gainwell should enjoy a role boost with Miles Sanders week-to-week with an injury. Gainwell is already a factor through the air, averaging 2.7 receptions and 23.4 receiving yards per game. He'll probably share carries with Boston Scott, but if he can bump up his 3.7 rush attempts and 17.1 rushing yards per game to eight to 12 carries, Gainwell can smash value at his bargain salary.
Lions Analysis: Detroit's offense is highly consolidated between the one-two punch of D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Swift is averaging 93.3 yards from scrimmage and 6.0 receptions per game with five touchdowns. He projects at RB5 in scoring this week with a great value score. Thus, he's a great option in all game types.
Meanwhile, Hockenson projects as the TE3 in scoring. However, his value score is much more attractive on FanDuel. It hasn't been smooth sailing every week for Hockenson. Yet, he ranks near the top of the leaderboard at tight end in many categories. I prefer to spend up for a forthcoming tight end or spin down to Goedert on most of my teams. Still, Hockenson's on my radar in GPPs, namely as a game-stack counterpart to Smith, Watkins, or Hurts.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: ATL -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Panthers Analysis: The Panthers are in a tailspin, leaving only one usable daily fantasy option. D.J. Moore is the last-man-standing. The talented wideout ranks seventh in receptions per game (6.6), receiving yards per game (83.7), and Intended Air Yards (783), and sixth in target share (29.1%). His workload positions him to rip Atlanta's 30th-ranked pass defense DVOA to shreds.
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons came out of the blocks slowly after the offensive starters hardly played in the preseason. Matt Ryan is on fire now, though. Over his last five games, he's averaging over 300 passing yards per game with 12 touchdowns. In addition, since Week 2, Matty Ice has been orchestrating the third-most pass-happy offense when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points (64%).
My favorite pass-catching option in Atlanta's offense is burgeoning rookie unicorn tight end Kyle Pitts. The supremely athletic tight end ranks 13th in receiving yards per game (78.6), best among tight ends. Pitts has come into his own the last two weeks, reeling in 16 receptions on 18 targets for 282 yards and a touchdown. He's correctly priced as the most expensive tight end and boasts a TE1 projection this week. I'm willing to spend up for his elite upside.
Unfortunately, the Calvin Ridley takeover in the wake of Julio Jones getting traded to the Titans hasn't materialized. On the plus side, he's received at least eight targets in all five games played, including reaching double-digit targets in four straight. Eventually, getting force-fed the ball should result in a blow-up performance, rendering Ridley a nifty GPP option.
Finally, Cordarrelle Patterson's surprising breakout campaign looks more sustainable after a massive backfield dynamic shift out of Atlanta's Week 6 bye. Patterson handled a season-high 73% of the snaps in Week 7, carried the ball 14 times to only four times for Mike Davis, and netted five targets. He's a Swiss Army Knife, running one route inline, four out of the backfield, six in the slot, and 17 wide in Week 7. The dynamic veteran's versatility gives him multiple avenues to scoring fantasy points, so I'm using him in GPPs.
Game: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: LAC -5.0 Points
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Patriots Analysis: How confident are you in the Patriots keeping the game in a positive or neutral game script with a rookie quarterback on the road against a talented Chargers squad coming out of their bye? I'm not confident. Therefore, I'm fading Damien Harris. However, if you think New England can keep it close, Harris can thrive. The Chargers rank dead last in rush defense DVOA. Los Angeles is also coughing up a staggering 5.29 yards per rush attempt to running backs. For Harris' part, he's gone over 100 rushing yards in back-to-back contests, rushing for 207 yards and three touchdowns on 32 attempts. I see the path to success this week. However, my pessimism about Mac Jones keeping the Patriots in this game from start to finish will keep me off Harris in daily games this week.
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers have had an extra week to lick their wounds and stew about getting drilled by the Ravens in a 34-6 loss in Week 6. Now, they face a mid-pack defense in their backyard. They have a nifty implied total of 27.0 points.
Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert is cooking with gasoline in Joe Lombardi's offense. He ranks sixth in passing yards per game (295.2) and ninth in passing touchdowns (14). Further, the offense is quarterback-friendly, passing at the third-highest rate (64%) when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points. Yet, it gets better! They're also playing at the fastest situation neutral pace.
Unsurprisingly, an up-tempo pass-happy offense supports multiple pass-catchers. Mike Williams ranks in the top-10 in receiving yards per game (83.0), and Keenan Allen checks in eighth with 6.5 receptions per game. The former scuffled playing through a knee injury in the last game before the bye, but it's reportedly feeling better. Otherwise, Williams has been a borderline unstoppable force, going over 80 receiving yards with at least one touchdown in four of six games.
Unfortunately, Allen's ceiling has taken a hit due to Williams' ascension. Still, he's caught four or more passes every game, and he's recorded at least 75 receiving yards or a touchdown in four of six contests. Allen's work this year is nothing to scoff at.
Tight end Jared Cook is a usable punt on DraftKings. Among tight ends in 2021, he ranks 10th in routes, tied for ninth in targets (33), tied for 12th in receptions (21), 17th in receiving yards (235), and tied for 12th in receiving touchdowns (two). So, are his ranks elite or exciting? Of course not, but he's priced as a punt. So, Cook's ranks are stellar for a cheap option on DraftKings, resulting in the fifth-best value score for tight ends there.
Additionally, Austin Ekeler's always in the daily fantasy mix as a do-it-all back. He's averaging 99.6 yards from scrimmage per game. He's also scored seven touchdowns and shined in the passing game (4.5 receptions per game), per usual. Ekeler's receiving excellence is nothing new, but his increase in goal-line usage in 2021 is an exciting development. He carried the ball only two times and netted one target from inside the five last year. However, this year, Ekeler's already carried the ball four times, scoring three touchdowns. As a result, we project him to finish as RB2 at DraftKings and RB3 at FanDuel.
Finally, the Chargers aren't a defense I'm crazy about. However, their salary is palatable when considering a potential mismatch between their pass rush and New England's pass protection. Pro Football Focus grades the Patriots 18th in pass protection and the Chargers 10th in pass rush.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Jaguars Analysis: The saying goes, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink. In this case, head coach Urban Meyer isn't a horse, but he's a donkey. And, the water is essentially James Robinson. Gift wrapped a talented running back; Meyer needed injuries to Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde before he leaned on J-Rob as a feature back. The path to get there is baffling, but Robinson's rightfully used as a workhorse now. The three games before Jacksonville's Week 7 bye, the second-year back played 95% of the snaps, 68%, and 85%. In those three games, he's touched the ball at least 19 times in each, reaching triple-digit scrimmage yards twice and amassing 76 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns in the outlier contest. He's scored a touchdown in four straight games, adding a third game to his 100-plus scrimmage yardage ledger extending back to Week 3. The game's small spread is conducive to Robinson being included in the offense from start to finish.
In Jacksonville's previous two games, we've been provided a glimpse into what the passing-game hierarchy is without D.J. Chark. A look under the hood generates interest in a pair of bargain options, Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold. Meyer said the following about Agnew.
In the previous two games, Agnew was third on the team in routes (58), tied for second in targets (12), second in receiving yards (119), and first in receptions (11). Therefore, he's an integral piece of the offense who's priced as a punt.
Arnold is fourth on the team with 57 routes in Week 5 and Week 6, fourth in receiving yards (91), and tied for second in targets (12) and receptions (eight). Thus, you could do worse picking a punt tight end than the heavily-involved Arnold.
Seahawks Analysis: I'm not touching this Geno Smith-led offense with a ten-foot pole. They've scored 30 points and amassed 528 yards of offense in two games with Smith starting. This is a roaring dumpster fire.
Game: Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Football Team Analysis: I love Terry McLaurin. However, I can't bring myself to spend the requisite cap space to use him this week with the alternatives available near him. Instead, I prefer to root around the bargain or sort-of bargain bin on the Football Team. Using Antonio Gibson creates an uneasy feeling in the pit of my stomach while he plays through a fracture in his shin. Still, Denver's been trounced on the ground in two of their last three games, coughing up 182 yards to the Browns in Week 7 and 147 yards to the Steelers in Week 5. Therefore, the game should remain in a neutral script, allowing Gibson to stay involved. Also, I think the Football Team springs the upset. So, I think Gibson could end up with a positive game script.
The other bargain options are Ricky Seals-Jones and Washington's disappointing defense. RSJ has made three straight starts for an injured Logan Thomas, ranking eighth in receiving yards (15), seventh in receptions (15), sixth in targets (20), and second in routes (121) among tight ends from Week 5 through Week 7.
As for Washington's defense, for all of its faults, rushing the passer isn't one. Pro Football Focus grades them as the second-best pass-rushing defense. Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus grades Denver 15th in pass blocking, and Teddy Bridgewater doesn't do them any favors in pass protection. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 33 quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 dropbacks, Bridgewater's 2.88-second average time to throw is tied for the eighth-slowest. Further, he's tied for the 13th-worst turnover-worthy-play rate (3.3%). Thus, Washington stands out as easily my favorite punt defense. The lineup optimizer also digs them, awarding them the sixth-highest value score on FanDuel and the highest value score on DraftKings.
Broncos Analysis: It's tempting to fade Denver's offense fully. Albert Okwuegbunam's likely return this week quietly hurts Noah Fant's value. Meanwhile, a returning Jerry Jeudy muddies the pass-catching waters for Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Further, Washington's pass rush might make it difficult for deep passing plays to develop for Sutton's downfield usage. Still, Jeudy appears underpriced on DraftKings as a possible matchup fit as an intermediate option to mitigate Washington's relentless pass rush. The optimizer validates my assertion, tagging Jeudy with the fourth-highest value score among wide receivers at DraftKings.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: TB -6.0 Points
Over/Under: 50.0 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: Antonio Brown is trending toward another absence. However, Rob Gronkowski looks like he'll be back. Last week, I didn't have a strong opinion regarding whether Mike Evans or Chris Godwin was the better still healthy receiver. This week, I prefer taking the minor discount to use Godwin and avoid Evans' challenging matchup with Marshon Lattimore. It can be a mistake to overrate wide receiver and cornerback matchups, but Lattimore has unquestionably gotten the better of Evans numerous times. Also, Gronk's return adds a red-zone stud to the mix to cut into Evans' work in scoring territory.
Regarding the red zone, Brady's 63 attempts in the red zone are 14 attempts clear of the second-highest total. Additionally, the Bucs pass at the highest rate (66%) when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points. Further, they never take their foot off the accelerator. When they're leading by eight points or more, their 58% pass rate is the second-highest and way above the league average of 45%. Finally, the matchup screams for a Brady aerial assault. The Saints have faced 227 pass attempts compared to only 170 rushing attempts because their run defense is stout, ranking third in rush defense DVOA.
Gronk is chiefly a touchdown-chasing option. He's scored four touchdowns in three games, garnering five targets resulting in four touchdowns in the red zone this season. However, he's clearly not merely a touchdown-or-bust option with per-game averages of 5.3 receptions and 61.3 receiving yards.
Finally, Tyler Johnson is a sneaky punt. The second-year receiver's 28 routes were the third-most for the Bucs last week, not too far behind Godwin's 34 and Evans' 31. If my expectation of the Bucs airing it out even more than usual comes to fruition, Johnson could clear the low bar set for value at his small salary.
Saints Analysis: Teams frequently avoid running against the Bucs. Nevertheless, Khalil Herbert demonstrated it's not impossible to gain some yardage on the ground against them. Still, it's a challenging matchup for Alvin Kamara. However, last week's blow-up game in the passing attack supports ponying up for Kamara's services. He hauled in 10 of 11 targets for 128 receiving yards. Further, Kamara's usage is dreamy, touching the ball 21 times or more in five of six games. Kamara's insane usage puts him on the GPP radar, despite a less-than-ideal matchup.
Finally, Deonte Harris is a home-run threat punt if he returns this week. Unfortunately, his return is up in the air, given his lack of practice activity this week while nursing a hamstring injury. The Bucs are beatable through the air, ranking 11th in pass defense DVOA. Most importantly for Harris, Tampa Bay's allowed the ninth-highest average explosive pass rate (10%). Among receivers targeted at least 15 times this year, the speedy Harris ranks first with 3.42 Y/RR. So, monitor his playing status for this week, and file his name away as a contrarian GPP play if he suits up.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
