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Tight Ends With New Offensive Play Callers (2022 Fantasy Football)

Tight Ends With New Offensive Play Callers (2022 Fantasy Football)

Coaching changes occur every year, and the result is new systems implemented around many NFL teams. That was certainly the case this offseason. Be it a new head coach or offensive coordinator, many teams have new offensive player callers ahead of 2022. Let’s take a look at the players impacted by these changes, along with their rankings and player notes.

Player rankings based on our redraft Expert Consensus Rankings for half-PPR leagues.

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Tight Ends With New Offensive Player Callers

Teams with new offensive play callers:

Buffalo Bills – Ken Dorsey, OC

Dawson Knox
Dawson Knox has major red flags on his profile from his impending touchdown regression to super-low target rate per route run (14%), so any role that O.J. Howard potential earns
coming in is a massive problem.

Considering Knox is being drafted in the middle-range of TEs (TE9) that typically have poor ROIs compared to guys going later, the Bills tight end remains hands-off.


Chicago Bears – Luke Getsy, OC

Cole Kmet
Cole Kmet ranked inside the top 12 amongst tight ends in targets (93, eighth), target share (17.7%, 11th), receiving yards (612, 12th), and air yard share (17.6%, 11th). With the depth chart devoid of receiving talent outside of Darnell Mooney, Kmet should see a similar share of the passing offense (if not more) in 2022. With touchdown regression poised to strike his box scores, Kmet is a high floor and ceiling option in fantasy.


Denver Broncos – Nathaniel Hackett, HC

Albert Okwuegbunam
Albert Okwuegbunam tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season (23%). Now entrenched as the presumed full-time starter with Noah Fant traded to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, the uber-athletic tight end can break out in Year 3.

It bodes well in Albert O’s favor that Noah Fant finished last season as the TE12 while the duo played in 14 games together.


Detroit Lions – Ben Johnson, OC

T.J. Hockenson
We have likely seen the ceiling already for T.J. Hockenson, but that shouldn’t be construed as shade. Hockenson has now logged back-to-back TE7 finishes in fantasy points per game which is still extremely good, but it’s doubtful he ever reaches the heights of top 3-5 status. He’s also ranked 11th in each of the last two seasons in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). With added target competition with the additions of Jameson Williams and D.J. Chark, Hockenson remains a top ten option at the position. Still, his ceiling is likely capped, keeping him outside the top five.


Houston Texans – Pep Hamilton, OC

Brevin Jordan
The Miami product enjoyed a decent rookie season, finishing with a 19% target rate per route run and four top-12 weekly finishes over his last nine games.

Jordan also dominated the receiving usage over the team’s last two games, running 40 routes to Pharaoh Brown‘s 18 and Anthony Auclair’s five. It’s a great sign that Jordan should lock down the primary receiving role at tight end in Houston, especially with Jordan Akins signing with the New York Giants this offseason.

It’s easy to envision Jordan carving out a solid receiving role in a lackluster/unproven receiving corps behind Cooks. He’s an athletic tight end with YAC-ability that I will gladly draft as my second or third tight end across any squad.


Jacksonville Jaguars – Doug Pederson, HC

Evan Engram
Evan Engram‘s PFF receiving grade has declined over the last four seasons, bottoming out in 2021 at 54.9 – 40th among 44 qualifying tight ends.

And he hasn’t disappointed due to a lack of opportunities, either. He finished top-15 in route participation (68%) and had almost zero competition for targets with injuries to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard.

Alas, Engram failed to command any worthwhile target share with his abysmal 14% target rate per route run. So consider me slightly hesitant to buy into Engram breaking out in 2022 because his new head coach has a history of featuring tight ends. Sure, it works in Engram’s favor, but last I checked Dan Arnold is still on the team. And Doug Pederson has also been known to heavily feature two tight ends in his offense, which doesn’t always translate to fantasy success.


Las Vegas Raiders – Josh McDaniels, HC

Darren Waller
There’s bound to be some hesitancy about drafting tight ends early after guys like George Kittle, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson and Logan Thomas failed to live up to their lofty projections (due to injury or not).

But the process was still sound behind adding some of those players in the early rounds if you look at their per-game production. Speaking to Waller, the Raiders tight end came in third in expected fantasy points per game (14.6), which ranked top-20 among all tight ends and wide receivers. He also ranked sixth in points per game (12.1) and second in targets per game (8.5)

The major concern with Waller in 2022 is how much Davante Adams will eat into his targets. However, I’d focus more on valuing Waller based on how good the Raiders offense as a whole can be with the addition of Adams. I’d be willing to forego one or fewer targets per game for Waller, if it means more scoring opportunities.

The big-bodied Black Hole tight end is primed for positive touchdown regression after converting just two of his 10 end-zone targets into touchdowns in 2021.


Miami Dolphins – Mike McDaniel, HC

Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki may see his target numbers dip in 2022 in a run-heavy offense alongside target magnets Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. That will make his 2021 production difficult to replicate.

The tight end/slot receiver hybrid finished sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, fourth in route participation (78%), and fifth in target share (17%) through 18 weeks of action of the 2021 season. This receiving and route volume led to only moderate success in fantasy football, as Mike Gesicki finished as TE9.

His efficiency metrics left something to be desired, though – he was 13th in fantasy points per game (9.9) and 15th in yards per route run. Part of that does fall on the up-and-down quarterback play, but it just further cements Gesicki as a good, not great tight end in fantasy football.

My biggest concern is that Gesicki has almost always underwhelmed after the catch – which will likely be a large part of the Dolphins new-look offense. His 3.2 YAC/reception ranked 41st of out 42 qualifying tight ends.

Gesicki did deliver worthwhile fantasy production at times, as displayed by his TE6 standing from Weeks 3-15 (11.5 fantasy points per game). And 94% of his snaps came lined up in the slot or out wide in 2021, which is another advantage for creating mismatches.

But all in all, he tends to only rise to the occasion for fantasy purposes when targets become available in the offense because of injuries to other players.

The athletic tight end will end up meeting his mid-range 2022 ADP/ECR based on his consistent play the past two seasons, but won’t enter the top-tier fantasy tight end conversation.


Minnesota Vikings – Kevin O’Connell, HC

Irv Smith
Assuming Irv Smith is at full health to start the season, he could compete with Adam Thielen as the second target in Minnesota behind Justin Jefferson. Let’s not forget that Smith was eighth in yards per target and second in QBR when targeted among tight ends in 2020. The Vikings surprised everyone by ranking 12th in neutral passing rate and eighth in neutral pace last year. If that repeats, the volume will be there for Smith. As an unrestricted free agent in 2023, Smith should be heavily motivated to post career-best numbers.


New England Patriots – Joe Judge, Matt Patricia, or Bill Belichick

Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry emerged as Mac Jones‘ No. 1 red-zone weapon in his first year with the New England Patriots, finishing second in end-zone targets (13) and tying for first in red-zone touchdowns (9) with Mark Andrews.

But Henry’s dependency on scoring touchdowns for fantasy made his production extremely volatile with just a 14% target share (13th). In seven of his games he finished as a top-12 tight end. In the other eight games, he finished outside the top-18.


New Orleans Saints – Pete Carmichael, OC (he has been the OC, but Sean Payton called the plays while he was HC)

Adam Trautman
Adam Trautman missed three games last season due to an MCL sprain, but his season was still a massive disappointment outside of the injury. His 1.05 yards per route run and 4.1 yards after the catch per reception won’t get anyone excited for his 2022 prospects. Last year’s depth chart was a perfect storm scenario for him to step forward if that was in the cards for his career arch. Sadly he only logged one top 12 tight end fantasy finish last year. The hope helium has been drained from his balloon. He’s waiver wire fodder or a streaming option should injuries strike the Saints depth chart.

Other tight ends on new teams:

Noah Fant (SEA)
There was hope that a QB upgrade in Denver could take Fant to the next level. Unfortunately, Fant was part of the trade package that enabled the Broncos to acquire Russell Wilson. Fant is athletic and has demonstrated his pass-catching chops, but Seattle’s bleak QB situation is going to be a limiting factor.

Gerald Everett (LAC)
Gerald Everett was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks. Everett proved he can be a featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch – sixth-most among tight ends. His peripheral metrics in Seattle’s offense – 12% target share, 63% route participation and 17% target rate per route run – were nearly identical to Jared Cook on the Chargers’ offense last season. Cook finished as TE16 overall which seems like Everett’s fantasy floor heading into 2022. The tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook’s average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1). L.A. ranked third in that category last season (39.6). Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season’s star at the position.

Evan Engram (JAC)
Evan Engram‘s PFF receiving grade has declined over the last four seasons, bottoming out in 2021 at 54.9 – 40th among 44 qualifying tight ends. And he hasn’t disappointed due to a lack of opportunities, either. He finished top-15 in route participation (68%) and had almost zero competition for targets with injuries to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard. Alas, Engram failed to command any worthwhile target share with his abysmal 14% target rate per route run. So consider me slightly hesitant to buy into Engram breaking out in 2022 because his new head coach has a history of featuring tight ends. Sure, it works in Engram’s favor, but last I checked Dan Arnold is still on the team. And Doug Pederson has also been known to heavily feature two tight ends in his offense, which doesn’t always translate to fantasy success.

Austin Hooper (TEN)
Austin Hooper signed with the Titans this offseason after being cut loose by the Cleveland Browns. The formerly highest-paid tight end in the league has seen his fantasy stock crash since leaving the Falcons, finishing back-to-back seasons outside the top-20 in TE scoring. Even as the perceived starter in Nashville, Hooper has an extremely low-ceiling in the Titans’ run-heavy offense. Despite all the injuries last season, no tight end on TEN saw 45 targets or a greater than 10% target share.

Hayden Hurst (CIN)

Bengals tight end Hayden Hurst is hardly a world-beater, but it’s hard to not view him as a winner post-draft. The former Falcon is in sole possession of C.J. Uzomah‘s vacated role from last season offers some fantasy appeal.

Uzomah’s 78% route participation ranked fourth-highest among tight ends in 2021

Every-down tight ends on the field that often in high-scoring environments will stumble into fantasy scoring. It’s a highly coveted role primed to ooze fantasy points. However, being on the field doesn’t always translate to the requisite fantasy production especially in offenses loaded with other weapons. Uzomah’s 13% target rate per route run ranked last among tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2021. Hurst’s 15% target rate wasn’t much better.

It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that Hurst is the clear-cut late-round tight end to target in 2022, but he is well worth targeting late in drafts. Hurst is just one year removed from a TE9 overall finish in 2020.

Kyle Rudolph (TB)
Kyle Rudolph arrives in Tampa Bay after a one-year stint with the Giants as a role player behind Evan Engram. Last year he only logged three games with 60% or higher snaps while seeing 21% of his target volume in the red zone. Rudolph could fill a similar role alongside Cameron Brate. Brate filled a role eerily similar to Rudolph’s with the Buccaneers last year. Rudolph ranked 31st in yards per route run and 21st in YAC per reception last season among tight ends (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). Rudolph will only be a matchup streamer in 2022 unless there are injuries to the tight end room.

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

 

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