The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

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Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears

BUF -9, O/U 41
Bills vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 10, Buffalo has been second in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate. Josh Allen has had some ups and downs as a passer, recently playing at less than 100%, but the Bills continue to ride on his million-dollar arm.
Over their last five games, the Bears have continued the same slow ground-and-pound offense. In that span, they are 30th in neutral pace and first in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Since Week 8, Allen is tenth in PFF passing grade, ninth in passing yards, first in big-time throws, and tenth in passing touchdowns (minimum 100 dropbacks). Allen has been running more recently with at least ten carries in three of his last four games, averaging 55.5 yards on the ground. After beginning the season hot, the Bears have dissolved into a terrible pass defense. Since Week 10, Chicago has been 28th in success rate per dropback, 31st in EPA per drop back, and 31st in pass defense DVOA. Allen will cut them to pieces through the air and on the ground. He’s the QB1 overall this week.

Justin Fields: Since Week 8, Fields has taken steps forward as a passer while continuing to crush as a rusher. Over his last six games played, he’s ninth in adjusted completion rate, ninth in passer rating, and sixth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Over that stretch, he’s been the QB1 in fantasy points per game. Over the few weeks, the Bills have melted down into an average pass defense. Since Week 11, Buffalo has been 16th in success rate per dropback, 24th in EPA per drop back, and 14th in pass defense DVOA. Fields is a top-five fantasy quarterback weekly.

Running Backs

Devin Singletary: Since Week 11, with Cook factoring into the backfield, Singletary has averaged 14.6 touches and 68.2 total yards. He’s played at least 60% of the snaps in three of his last five games while handling 55.5% of the running back red zone work. Singletary is 22nd in evaded tackles, 18th in breakaway run rate, and 22nd in yards created. Since Week 10, Chicago has been 20th in rushing success rate, 26th in EPA per rush, and 26th in explosive run rate allowed. Singletary is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3.

James Cook: Cook has played between 36-43% of the snaps weekly over his last three games. His volume has been a rollercoaster, with 20 touches and 105 total yards in Week 13 but six touches and 27 total yards per game across his last two contests. Cook has seven red zone opportunities over his last five games (Singletary 15, Hines five). Cook is a ball of electricity when Buffalo unleashes him. He’s sixth in yards per touch, tenth in juke rate, first in breakaway run rate, and 15th in yards created per touch. Cook is an upside RB4.

David Montgomery: In his last six games played with Herbert working in, Montgomery has averaged 15 touches and 64.5 total yards. He played at least 66% of snaps in five of those six weeks. In Weeks 5-10, Montgomery was a top 24 fantasy running back (RB16, RB23, RB24) in 50% of his games while never finishing lower than RB38. Montgomery has made the most of his opportunities this season, ranking seventh in yards per route run, eighth in juke rate, and sixth in evaded tackles. Since Week 10, Buffalo has been 17th in rushing success rate, 11th in EPA per rush, and 20th in explosive run rate allowed. Montgomery is an RB2.

Khalil Herbert: Herbert has been designated to return from the IR. We’ll see if he’s activated by Saturday. In Weeks 7-10, working in tandem with Montgomery, he averaged 11.6 touches and 66.6 total yards. In half of those games, Herbert was a top-20 fantasy running back (RB18, RB15) with four red zone carries. Herbert is fourth in juke rate, 22nd in evaded tackles, 20th in breakaway run rate, and seventh in yards created per touch. If he’s active, he’s an RB3.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is coming off two down games as the WR59 and WR40. Diggs should roar back with a vengeance this week against a burnable Bears secondary. Even after his quiet pair of games, Diggs remains the WR4 with a 29.0% target share (ninth-best) and 34.2% air-yard share (14th). He is tenth in deep targets and second in red zone targets among receivers. Diggs remains one of the best receivers in the NFL, ranking fifth in open rate. He’s a top-five receiver play that will run about 69% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (58.7% catch rate, 96.8 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (71% catch rate, 94.8 passer rating).

Gabriel Davis: Davis has been a high-ceiling WR3 this season with the ability to win a week for your fantasy squad but also couple those types of games around duds. Davis has drawn a disappointing 16.9% target share while ranking 81st in target per route run rate. He’s 12th in deep targets while also owning the fifth-highest aDOT among receivers. Davis could pop off for a monster game in this spot against a Bears secondary that’s 21st in DVOA against deep passing giving up the sixth-highest deep completion rate. Davis will run about 91% of his routes against Johnson and Jones.

Isaiah McKenzie: McKenzie still logged a 69% route run rate last week with the return of Cole Beasley. Beasley managed a 16.7% route run rate, which could grow this week with another week back on the team. McKenzie’s 10.8% target share (four targets) isn’t flashy, but his 19.0 aDOT is interesting, as that mark led the team in Week 15. McKenzie is WR5 that could finish the week with decent flex numbers as he’ll run most of his routes against Kyler Gordon (81.8% catch rate, 111.6 passer rating). Gordon has been a corner that opposing teams have picked on all season. McKenzie carries a decent amount of risk as Beasley could eat into his role further, so if you’re flexing him the hope is a deep target against Gordon for a score.

Chase Claypool: Claypool has been listed as doubtful (knee). In his last two games active, he played 63-67% of the snaps with a 22.4% target share and 50% end zone target share that amounted to WR67 and WR59 finishes in fantasy. Even if Claypool is active, he’s a WR5 that’s better off not making it into your lineup this week.

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox: Knox has been on a heater since Week 11 with three top-five tight end finishes over his last five games. Since Week 10, he has had a 15.4% target share averaging 47.2 receiving yards with an 80.6% route run rate. In that span, he’s 15th in yards per route run, seventh in targets, and second in receiving yards behind only Travis Kelce. The Bears have been a stout matchup for tight ends sitting at 12th in catch rate, ninth in yards per reception, and sixth in receiving touchdowns allowed. Knox is a borderline TE1.

Cole Kmet: After a super productive mid-season run of games with Fields breaking out, Kmet has calmed down. He has only managed one top-12 fantasy game since Week 11. He hasn’t scored a touchdown or sniffed a red zone target since Week 10. Kmet is eighth among tight ends in target share (19.1%), 13th in receiving yards, and sixth in deep targets. Kmet is a TE2 this week against a pass defense that has been among the league’s best at defending the position. Buffalo has climbed to first in DVOA against tight ends giving up the seventh-fewest receiving yards and holding the distinction as the only defense yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end.

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns

CLE -3, O/U 31
Saints vs. Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Deshaun Watson under center, the Browns are 25th in neutral pace and 22nd in neutral passing rate.
Over their last five games, New Orleans is 27th in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate. This game will be incredibly slow, which could cap the ceilings for a few players from a volume perspective.

Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton: Dalton is a QB2 that continues to run the Saints’ offense efficiently. He’s second in PFF passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, 11th in adjusted completion rate, and 13th in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The problem for Dalton and his fantasy value hasn’t been how well he’s playing but the pace and offensive design for New Orleans. Dalton is 16th in passing attempts and 17th in dropbacks since taking over as the Saints’ starter in Week 4. Since Week 10, Cleveland has been 20th in success rate per dropback, sixth in EPA per dropback, and sixth in pass defense DVOA.

Deshaun Watson: Since returning to the NFL, Watson has struggled to find his form. He’s been QB30, QB14, and QB21 in fantasy. Since Week 13, he’s 24th in PFF passing grade, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 18th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). New Orleans won’t be the matchup that helps Watson right the ship. Since Week 10, the Saints are sixth in success rate per dropback, 11th in EPA per drop back, and eighth in pass defense DVOA. Watson is a QB2.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: Without Mark Ingram last week, Kamara didn’t see a spike in his snaps as David Johnson worked in. Kamara played 62% of the snaps with 24 touches and 104 total yards. This season, he remains without a touchdown outside of his blow-up week against the Raiders. Kamara is a weekly low-end RB1/high-end RB2 on volume alone. His lacking touchdown equity this season has kept him outside the upper echelon of fantasy backs. He has had four red zone carries over his last six games. His efficiency metrics paint the depressing picture of a runner that’s slowing down. He’s 49th in juke rate, 47th in breakaway run rate, and 32nd in evaded tackles. This week’s game against the Browns could help boost some of those figures. Since Week 10, Cleveland is 26th in rushing yards per game, 27th in EPA per rush, and 30th in explosive run rate allowed.

Nick Chubb: Chubb was a DNP on Tuesday and Wednesday before managing a limited session on Thursday. The Browns have stated Chubb will play this week, so I’m projecting he sees his usual workload if active. Since Watson’s return, Chubb has averaged 18.3 touches and 77.7 total yards. Chubb is the RB7 in fantasy, ranking second in juke rate, first in evaded tackles, and sixth in breakaway run rate. Since Week 10, the Saints have been a shell of their former selves as a run defense. Any thoughts of this defense being good at stopping the run need to disappear from your mind. They have been 28th in rushing yards per game, 28th in EPA per rush, and 16th in explosive run rate allowed. Chubb remains an RB1.

Kareem Hunt: Hunt has only two RB3 finishes over his last five games played. Over that span, he has averaged seven touches and 37.6 total yards. Hunt has four red zone carries over his last two games, so his touchdown equity while on a lifeline is still present in this offense. He could take on some more volume this week with Chubb banged up. Hunt is an intriguing RB4/flex option with a wondrous matchup incoming.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Olave has been ruled out. The Saints will also be without Jarvis Landry (IR). The team will have to lean on Shaheed, Johnson, and their ground game this week.

Rashid Shaheed: Since Week 13, Shaheed has been a full-time player in the Saints’ offense. He’s had at least 53 receiving yards in each of his last three games. Across his last two games, he has a 17% target share, 29.8% air yard share, 81.1% route run rate, and 3.95 yards per route run. Among all receivers with at least 19 targets, he’s 19th in PFF receiving grade and fourth in yards per route run. These are impressive numbers, but it’s an incredibly small sample. Still, I don’t want to take anything away from a player that’s consistently earned more playing time and targets throughout the season. Shaheed has seen 31.6% of his target volume this season downfield, posting a beautiful 158.3 passer rating on deep shots. The Browns are 29th in pass DVOA against deep passing with the ninth-highest deep completion rate and seventh-most deep passing yards. Shaheed is a WR3/4.

Amari Cooper: With Watson under center, Cooper has a 25.6% target share, 57.1% end zone target share, and 34.1% air yard share. While these usage metrics are fantastic, the results haven’t been. Cooper hasn’t managed more than 58 receiving yards or better than a WR44 finish in his last three games. Watson’s lumbering rust has trickled down through the entire offense. Cooper is the WR17 this season, ranking 16th in deep targets and 13th in red zone looks. He’s a low-end WR2/WR3 against a secondary that’s allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 10.

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Peoples-Jones has a 22.1% target share (63 receiving yards per game), 28.6% end zone target share, and 40.3% air yard share with Watson tossing passes. Peoples-Jones has a 20% target per route run rate, 1.99 yards per route run, and three top 30 wide receiver weeks (WR28, WR13, WR30) over that span. Peoples-Jones is a WR3.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson: Since Week 7, Johnson has been the TE5 in fantasy with a 14.5% target share and 30.8% end zone target share. Across his last seven games, he has been a touchdown machine leading the position with seven scores while also ranking 23rd in yards per route run and 19th in receiving yards (minimum ten targets). Johnson is a TE1 against a Browns’ defense that’s second in catch rate but 28th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

Taysom Hill: Hill has four TE1 weeks this season and should add a fifth in Week 16. Over the last four weeks, he’s been a consistent cog in the Saints’ offense playing at least 42% of the offensive snaps while averaging 6.3 rushing attempts and 26.3 rushing yards. In that span, he’s also managed one reception and 12.5 receiving yards, plus 28.8 passing yards per game. With the weather being a concern in this game and exploitable run defense incoming, Hill is a top-ten tight end option this week with top-three tight end upside.

David Njoku: Njoku is the TE7, ranking fifth in yards per route run, tenth in deep targets, and third in red zone targets. With Watson, he has a 23.1% target share, 20% end zone target share, 81% route run rate, and 23% target per route run rate (1.36 yards per route run). Njoku is a TE1, but he faces one of the best defenses against tight ends for the last several years in Week 16. New Orleans is second in DVOA, holding tight ends to the lowest catch rate, third-lowest receiving yards per game, and second-lowest fantasy points per game.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

TEN -7, O/U 38
Texans vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Over their last five games, the Texans are 21st in neutral pace and ninth in neutral rushing rate.
Since Week 11, Tennessee has been 23rd in neutral pace while sitting at a surprising 15th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Davis Mills: Since reclaiming the starting quarterback job in Houston, Mills has been losing snaps to Jeff Driskel, playing 50% and 83% of snaps in his last two games. Mills finished as the QB27 and QB11 in fantasy since Week 14. Last week’s QB1 game was because Mills ran hot with touchdowns posting two through the air and an odd rushing score. Mills only passed for 121 yards while completing 50% of his passes. The Titans have been a dreadful pass defense, but that still doesn’t make Mills worth starting in 1QB leagues, as he’s still a risky bet even in Superflex formats. Since Week 10, Tennessee has been 22nd in success rate per dropback, 28th in EPA per drop back, and 29th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

Malik Willis set to start against Texans https://t.co/Ze18nLNFQb via @Tan_Dursky #Titans

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) December 21, 2022

Malik Willis: Willis will draw the start for the injured Ryan Tannehill. In his two starts earlier this season, Willis averaged 13 passing attempts, 67.5 passing yards, 6.5 rushing attempts, and 26 rushing yards. He only managed 5.1 yards per attempt. He was the QB31 and QB25 in fantasy those weeks. Since Week 10, Houston has been 30th in success rate per dropback, 22nd in EPA per drop back, and 19th in passing yards per game. Willis is a QB2 with a limited ceiling unless the Titans take the training wheels off and let him run a ton or chuck the football.

Running Backs

Week 15

Player	Rushing attempts	Targets	Routes	Red zone opportunities
Royce Freeman	11	1	4	0
Dare Ogunbowale	8	0	14	1
Rex Burkhead	0	4	9	1

HOU RBs: Without Dameon Pierce, this backfield dissolved into a useless three-way committee. Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale split the early downs while all three backs contributed in the passing game. Since Week 10, Tennessee has been sixth in rushing success rate, second in rushing yards per game, third in explosive run rate, and ninth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. None of these running backs are worth even trotting out as a flex play against a defense that has shut down backs all year.

Derrick Henry: Henry is the RB4 in fantasy points per game, averaging 23.2 touches and 120.2 total yards. After a rough patch, Henry has bounced back with back-to-back 100 yards rushing days, bringing his season total to seven. Henry is second in opportunity share, third in red zone touches, and fifth in weighted opportunities. He’s eighth in evaded tackles, fifth in breakaway runs, and third in yards created. Henry is a top-three back again this week. Since Week 10, Houston is 11th in rushing success rate, 27th in rushing yards per game, and 28th in explosive run rate allowed.

Wide Receivers

Chris Moore: Moore has been the Texans’ target hog, with the rest of the receiver room ravaged by injuries. Over the last two games, he has had a 38% target share (9.5 targets per game) with a 39.8% air yard share and 2.45 yards per route run (36% target per route run rate). Moore is a volume-based WR3/4 this week if Cooks and Collins remain sidelined. He has only two red zone targets over the last two games because the Houston offense is such a wretched carnival sideshow. Moore will run about 69% of his routes against Roger McCreary (70.7% catch rate, 113.8 passer rating) and Greg Mabin (80% catch rate, 118.3 passer rating). Moore has been limited all week (foot) in practice. He’s been listed as questionable.

Brandin Cooks: Cooks practiced in full on Wednesday and Thursday. He should be back this week while carrying a questionable tag into Week 16. Cooks hasn’t finished as a WR3 or better since Week 4. In Weeks 7-12, he managed a 16.3% target share without drawing an end zone target but mustering a 1.97 yards per route run mark. Cooks has a red zone target in his last three games. He will run about 73% of his routes this week against McCreary and Mabin as a WR5. If Moore is out, Cooks bumps up to WR4 territory.

Nico Collins: Collins has been placed on the IR.

Treylon Burks: Burks practiced in full all week and should be back. Burks wasn’t active for Willis’s two starts earlier this season. In Weeks 10-12, Burks had a 20.6% target share (6.7 targets per game) with zero end zone targets, a 57.9% route run rate, and 3.31 yards per route run. With Willis under center, Burks’ raw target volume will take a hit, so temper your expectations. With his shaky route run rate also playing a factor, Burks is tough to trust in fantasy this week. Burks’ talent is real, as he’s 31st in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Burks will run about 79% of his routes against Desmond King (74.4% catch rate, 94.6 passer rating) and Tremon Smith (61.5% catch rate, 65.1 passer rating) as a WR4.

Robert Woods: Woods remains a fantasy ghost. He has logged nine weeks outside the top 50 fantasy wide receivers. He has one touchdown this season and one game with more than 70 receiving yards. Don’t play Woods.

Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo: Okonkwo is a borderline TE1. His usage metrics, as I’ve outlined previously, are frightening. He’s played only 50-56% of the snaps over the last three weeks with a 19.1% target share (5.7 targets per game) and 54.1% route run rate. He’s continued to run white hot with a 2.78 yards per route run and a 28% target per route run rate. In his last three games, he’s finished as the TE8, TE3, and TE15. With Willis drawing the start this week, bump Okonkwo to TE2 land, as the passing volume will be further drained. Since Week 10, Houston is 29th in catch rate, 26th in receiving yards per game, and 23rd in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Josh Allen Justin Fields Devin Singletary James Cook David Montgomery Khalil Herbert Stefon Diggs Jaylon Johnson Jaylon Jones Gabriel Davis Isaiah McKenzie Cole Beasley Kyler Gordon Chase Claypool Dawson Knox Travis Kelce Cole Kmet Deshaun Watson Andy Dalton Alvin Kamara Mark Ingram David Johnson Nick Chubb Kareem Hunt Chris Olave Rashid Shaheed Amari Cooper Donovan Peoples-Jones Juwan Johnson David Njoku Davis Mills Jeff Driskel Royce Freeman Dare Ogunbowale Rex Burkhead Dameon Pierce Derrick Henry Chris Moore Roger McCreary Greg Mabin Brandin Cooks Nico Collins Treylon Burks Robert Woods Chigoziem Okonkwo