The Primer: Week 14 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 14 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Since Week 8, the Browns have ranked 12th in neutral pace and neutral rushing rate.
  • Over their last five games, Jacksonville has been a slow-and-throw team with the second-slowest neutral pace and the 13th-best neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday and Friday and has been listed as questionable. He will likely be a game-time decision. I’ll get this out of the way right now. If Lawrence sits, I don’t recommend starting C.J. Beathard, even in Superflex formats. Let’s look at what a limited Lawrence looks like to get a sense of his effectiveness. Lawrence sprained his MCL earlier this season. In Weeks 7-10, among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 26th in passer rating, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 31st in highly accurate throw rate. Add in that Lawrence is facing a strong Browns’ pass defense, and it’s tough to be optimistic about his fantasy outlook this week if he plays. Since Week 8, the Browns have allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest CPOE. Week 14 Positional Value: QB2

Joe Flacco: Kevin Stefanski has declined to name a starting quarterback this week, but the buzz from the team’s beat writers points to Joe Flacco making another start. I can’t stand the head coach “gamesmanship” stuff. Good lord. Just name the starter, but I will stop myself from going on a long rant here. Last week, Flacco finished with 254 passing yards and two scores as the QB13 in fantasy. Among 27 qualifying quarterbacks last week, he was 21st in yards per attempt, second in aDOT, and tenth in highly accurate throw rate. 15.9% of his throws were 20 yards or more downfield (fourth in deep attempts). He should post solid QB2 numbers again this week with the ability to flirt with QB1 numbers. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE. Since Week 8, they struggled mightily to defend the deep ball, giving up the fifth-highest depth-adjusted completion rate and the second-most deep passing touchdowns. Week 14 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Travis Etienne: Etienne is the RB6 in fantasy, ranking fifth in opportunity share, third in weighted opportunities, and 20th in red zone touches. He has settled into a 61-66% snap share since Week 10, averaging 16.8 touches and 67 total yards. Etienne has hit a wall recently and hasn’t rolled up 100 total yards since Week 8. He has only one 100-yard rushing day all season. Etienne’s efficiency has recently taken a hit. Since Week 10, among 44 qualifying backs, he ranks 24th in explosive run rate and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. I would love to say he enjoys a resurgent game against Cleveland this week, but it’s not a sure thing. Last week, he should have smashed the Bengals, but he only saw 11 carries and rolled up 45 rushing yards. Since Week 8, Cleveland has allowed the sixth-most rushing touchdowns, the 13th-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1/2

D’Ernest Johnson: Johnson remains a priority handcuff only. Since Week 10, he has averaged only 6.8 touches and 41.1 total yards. He has had only one red zone opportunity over the last two games. Week 14 Positional Value: Handcuff only

Jerome Ford: Ford is the RB25 in fantasy points per game. He has played at least 64% of the snaps in three of the last five games, averaging 16.4 touches and 71.2 total yards. He ranks 13th in weighted opportunities. Ford has split the red zone work with Kareem Hunt since Week 9, with each back seeing nine opportunities inside the 20. Among 58 qualifying backs, Ford ranks 19th in missed tackles forced and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. He gets a surprisingly plus matchup this week against the Jaguars, who since Week 8, have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.15). 53.9% of Ford’s carries have been on gap plays. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2/3

Kareem Hunt: Since Week 9, Hunt has averaged 11.8 touches and 35.4 total yards. Hunt is the RB38 in fantasy points per game. He has split the red zone work down the middle with Ford since Week 9, with each back seeing nine opportunities inside the 20-yard line. Among 58 qualifying backs, Hunt ranks 53rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 56th in yards after contact per attempt. Hunt is a touchdown or bust flex in a plus spot this week. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.15). 62.4% of Hunt’s carries have been on gap plays. Week 14 Positional Value: Touchdown or bust flex

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley: Ridley is the WR25 in fantasy. It has been a rollercoaster all season as he has four weeks as a WR1 but he has also finished outside the top 60 wide receivers in weekly scoring four times. After enduring a long red zone drought during the middle of the season, Ridley has bounced back with five red zone targets over his last four games. Overall he ranks 15th in deep targets and 23rd in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 8, the Browns have utilized single-high as the highest rate in the NFL (67.7%). Against single-high, Ridley has a 23.7% target share, a 42.1% air-yard share, 2.20 YPRR, and a 27.6% first-read share. Ridley carries a high weekly ceiling, but the floor is also extremely low. This feels like more of a floor week than a ceiling outcome. Since Week 8, Cleveland has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3

Zay Jones: Jones has had only two games this season in which he was healthy enough to play more than 80% of the snaps (Weeks 1 & 13). In those games, he had a 21.1% target share, a 35.7% air-yard share, 2.08 YPRR, and a 25.9% first-read share. The Jaguars could lean more heavily on their wide receivers this week, with Evan Engram staring down a terrible matchup. Since Week 8, Cleveland has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3

Parker Washington: Last week, with Christian Kirk‘s season cut short, Washington assumed a starting role. He had a 68.2% route run rate, a 15.4% target share, a 12.3% air-yard share, 1.97 YPRR, and a 10.3% first-read share. Washington finished with six receptions, 61 receiving yards, and a score. He could keep the gravy train rolling this week against Cleveland. The one area that Cleveland has been mere mortals at defending is slot receivers. The Browns rank 15th in PPR points per target and 12th in receiving touchdowns (tied) allowed to slot receivers (Washington 80% slot last week). Washington is in play in deep leagues as a flex with upside. Week 14 Positional Value: Deep league flex with upside

Amari Cooper: Cooper has cleared the concussion protocol. He will absolutely smash this Jaguars secondary this week. Last week, before his exit from the game, he saw a 38.4% target share with Flacco. In the first quarter, he had a 60% first-read share. Cooper has had a 20.5% target share, 2.08 YPRR, and a 26.6% first-read share. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed the most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR2/3

Elijah Moore: Last week, with Joe Flacco under center and Cooper banged up, Moore led the team with a 27.3% target share, a 50.3% air-yard share, 2.31 YPRR, and a 39.3% first-read share. Those numbers will dip this week with Cooper back, but Moore remains a strong play. In the three previous games, Moore had settled into a nice high-floor play with at least seven targets and 44 receiving yards in each game. Moore has five red zone targets over his last five games. Jacksonville ranks 15th in receiving yards allowed to slot receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR4 with upside

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Engram is the TE8 in fantasy, coming off easily his best game of the season. Last week, Engram handled a 23.1% target share, finishing with nine receptions, 82 receiving yards, and his first score of the season. He also had a 27.6% first-read share with Kirk out. Overall, he has garnered a 21.3% target share and a 23.6% first-read share and produced 1.59 YPRR. Don’t expect Engram to follow up last week’s performance with a banner game. Cleveland has been a no-fly zone for tight ends all season, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to the position. The Browns have allowed only three receiving touchdowns to tight ends all season, and two of those scores came from Mark Andrews in Week 4. I would consider sitting Engram this week, depending on your options at tight end. Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

David Njoku: Since Week 7, Njoku has seen a 22.4% target share and a 25.1% first-read share as he has rolled up 1.55 YPRR and six end zone targets. Last week broke Njoku’s streak of six straight games as a weekly TE1 (TE10, TE6, TE12, TE7, TE4, TE8). Njoku ranks fifth among tight ends in red zone targets. He should bounce back nicely this week, regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Jacksonville has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the third-highest yards per reception to tight ends this season. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

NE vs. PIT | TB vs. ATL | DET vs. CHI | IND vs. CIN | JAC vs. CLE | CAR vs. NO | HOU vs. NYJ | LAR vs. BAL | MIN vs. LV | SEA vs. SF | BUF vs. KC | DEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | TEN vs. MIA | GB vs. NYG

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Since Week 8, Carolina has ranked 19th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate.
  • Over their last five games, the Saints have begun to slow things down, ranking 13th in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young: At this point of the season, we know what to expect from Young. Sadly, that is single digits in fantasy points. He hasn’t even managed double-digit fantasy points since Week 9. He has only one passing touchdown over his last four games. The hope candle can be lit this offseason, but for now, Young isn’t getting anywhere close to my fantasy lineups.

Derek Carr: Carr has cleared the concussion protocol and will start this week. He is the QB26 in fantasy, with only one QB1 finish in his last five games. He is 18th in yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate while ranking 15th in CPOE. Carr will finish somewhere in the middle of the pack this week in QB2 land. Since Week 8, Carolina has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the fewest passing touchdowns, and the tenth-lowest passer rating. Week 14 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard: This is Hubbard’s backfield. Last week, he played 65% of the snaps, which is his highest snap share since Week 9. He had 25 carries with 104 rushing yards (zero targets) while also seeing all of the red zone work for this backfield. Among 58 qualifying backs, Hubbard ranks 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. He should see 20-plus opportunities against a Saints’ run defense that has struggled over the last few weeks. Since Week 8, New Orleans has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the highest yards per carry to zone runs (Hubbard 58% zone). Don’t be surprised if Hubbard is a strong RB2 this week. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2/3

Miles Sanders: Sanders is droppable at this point. He played only 32% of the snaps last week, with nine touches and 29 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics have been basement-level all year. Carolina has made it clear Hubbard is the guy now. Week 14 Positional Value: Droppable

Alvin Kamara: Over the last two weeks, Kamara has played 58-64% of the snaps, averaging 19.5 touches and 114 total yards. Kamara is the RB4 in fantasy, ranking sixth in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 16th in red zone touches. Since Week 8, he has shown some life in his tackle-breaking, but it’s still not pretty. Among 36 qualifying backs, he ranks 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, Carolina has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns, the fourth-highest rate of missed tackles per attempt, and the 13th-highest explosive run rate. Kamara is a lock for 15-20 touches in a plus matchup. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen: Thielen’s season has gone in the toilet. Over his last five games, he has surpassed 45 receiving yards only once and had only one WR2 or higher finish (WR21). Since Week 9, he has had a 21.4% target share, a 26.0% air-yard share, 0.95 YPRR, and a 27.8% first-read share. It has been tough, as he has averaged only 33.3 receiving yards per game with 0.22 fantasy points per route run. It’s tough to consider Thielen as anything more than an uninspiring flex play at this juncture. Thielen will run about 71% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (since Week 8: 65.4% catch rate and 101.3 passer rating). Since Week 8, New Orleans has ranked 14th in PPR points per target allowed to slot receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3

Jonathan Mingo: Since Week 9, Mingo has had an 18.5% target share, a 30.3% air-yard share, 0.87 YPRR, and a 26.9% first-read share. Mingo is the WR71 in fantasy points per game, with only two WR3 or higher finishes this season. Mingo will run about 68% of his routes on the perimeter against Paulson Adebo (58.5% catch rate and 52.6 passer rating) and Isaac Yiadom (57.9% catch rate and 86.3 passer rating). Week 14 Positional Value: WR5

Chris Olave: Olave is the WR19 in fantasy, ranking first in deep targets and 23rd in red zone targets among wide receivers. Olave has a 24.5% target share, a 41.2% air-yard share, 2.19 YPRR, and a 31.4% first-read share. Since Week 8, Carolina has utilized single high at the fifth-highest rate (64.2%). Against single-high, Olave has eaten with a 45.3% air-yard share, 3.06 YPRR, and a 34.9% first-read share. Since Week 8, Carolina has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-lowest PPR points per target. While that is absolutely concerning, Olave should see a heaping dose of volume to outkick efficiency concerns. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1/2

Rashid Shaheed: Shaheed has not practiced all week (thigh). The Saints are playing injury-reporting games this week. They have listed him as questionable. I doubt he will play this week, and even if he is active, I can’t count on him playing a full-time role. Sit Shaheed. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: Hill didn’t practice at all this week as he is dealing with a hand and a foot issue. The Saints continue their injury-reporting nonsense with Hill by listing him as questionable. There have been plenty of weeks to roll the Hill dice. This isn’t one of them. If he is active, he could only play a handful of snaps. With fantasy playoff hopes on the line this week, I can’t rely on Hill in my lineups. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit

NE vs. PIT | TB vs. ATL | DET vs. CHI | IND vs. CIN | JAC vs. CLE | CAR vs. NO | HOU vs. NYJ | LAR vs. BAL | MIN vs. LV | SEA vs. SF | BUF vs. KC | DEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | TEN vs. MIA | GB vs. NYG

Houston Texans vs. New York Jets

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Since Week 9, Houston has continued to blaze a pace and passing rate trail ranking sixth in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.
  • Across their last five games, the Jets have continued to operate quickly and pass centric ranking 11th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is the QB4 in fantasy, ranking third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Stroud has finished as a QB1 in 50% of his games this season. He ranks third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 8, the Jets have continued to field a strong pass defense with the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and the fifth-lowest passer rating and adjusted completion rate allowed. Since Week 8, New York has operated with the seventh-highest rate of two high (53.4%). Stroud ranks fifth in yards per attempt and eighth in fantasy points per dropback against two high. Stroud probably won’t finish with a ceiling performance in Week 14, but he can still churn out QB1 numbers. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

NYJ QBs: Unless you are telling me that Aaron Rodgers is starting under center in Week 14 for the Jets, I have no interest in their signal caller for fantasy. The Jets’ quarterback position has been a black hole for fantasy production all season. That won’t change in Week 14.

Running Backs

Dameon Pierce: Last week, Pierce reclaimed the early down role for Houston with 38% of the snaps played, 15 carries (zero targets), and 41 rushing yards. Pierce handled four of the five backfield opportunities inside the red zone. Among 58 qualifying backs, Pierce ranks eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 41st in yards after contact per attempt. After some lag, the Jets have picked their run defense standards back up. Since Week 8, they have had the 10th-highest stuff rate while ranking 17th in yards after contact per attempt and allowing the sixth-lowest stuff rate. Pierce is a decent flex play this week. Week 14 Positional Value: Flex play

Devin Singletary: Prior to last week, Singletary had two baller performances and a solid game. Apparently, that wasn’t enough for him to retain his bell cow workload, with Pierce getting healthier. Last week, Singletary’s snap share dropped to 46% as he handled only nine touches, churning out 40 total yards. Singletary ranks 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. In one week, he saw a massive dip in snaps, lost the early down workload lead, and had his red zone usage demolished. Singletary has fallen quickly to a low-end flex play. Since Week 8, the Jets have had the 10th-highest stuff rate while ranking 17th in yards after contact per attempt and allowing the sixth-lowest stuff rate. Week 14 Positional Value: Low-end flex play

Breece Hall: Since Week 6, Hall has been the RB13 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17 touches and 69.7 total yards. He is 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. The bulk of his production has come through the passing game, with 5.1 receptions and 41.4 receiving yards per game. He has averaged only 28.3 rushing yards per game over his last seven contests. Since Week 6, he has surpassed 40 rushing yards in only one game. His offensive line has been the worst unit in the NFL. Since Week 6, the Jets have the lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. They have a full 0.21 yards before contact per attempt below the next closest offensive line (LAC). Hall is set for another long day at the office in Week 14. Since Week 8, Houston has the second-best stuff rate while also allowing the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game. Hall didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday before returning to a limited session on Friday (ankle). He has been listed as questionable. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins: After last week’s blow-up game, Collins has climbed to WR9 in fantasy points per game while ranking 23rd in red zone targets (eight red zone targets in his last five games). Last week, Collins had a 42.9% target share, a 56.9% air-yard share, 6.59 YPRR, and a 55% first-read share. Those are elite numbers, no matter how you slice them. Overall, Collins has a 22.3% target share, a 30.6% air-yard share, 3.20 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share. Since Week 8, New York has operated with the seventh-highest rate of two high (53.4%). Against two-high, Collins has had 2.40 YPRR and a 27.2% first-read share. Collins will have to roll up his sleeves again this week against a strong secondary. Since Week 8, the Jets have allowed the fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. With Tank Dell out, Collins should see an elite workload again this week, which can help him overcome the brutal matchup. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Noah Brown: Last week, while Brown only drew two targets, he did return to a full-time role with a 74.3% route run rate while playing 69.2% of his snaps on the perimeter. With the unfortunate season-ending injury to Tank Dell, Brown should be Nico Collins‘ running mate for the rest of the season. In Weeks 8-10, Brown had a 17.1% target share, a 23.4% air-yard share, 4.55 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share, as he averaged 127.3 receiving yards per game over that stretch. Brown is a viable flex this week, but temper your expectations considering the matchup. Since Week 8, the Jets have allowed the fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR4

Robert Woods: Woods is droppable. Last week, he saw his route run rate drop to 42.9% as he worked in with John Metchie lll. Brown and Collins were the only full-time wide receivers for Houston. Week 14 Positional Value: Droppable

Garrett Wilson: Wilson has seen his fantasy stock wither as the Jets’ quarterback play has gotten even worse, as crazy as that is to say. He has failed to surpass 10 fantasy points in two of his last three games. He is the WR28 in fantasy points per game, ranking ninth in deep targets and 11th in red zone looks. Wilson has a 27.8% target share, a 46.7% air-yard share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 38.9% first read share. He is the only playable Jets wide receiver option. Since Week 8, Houston has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: Schultz has been ruled out (hamstring). 

Brevin Jordan: With Schultz out, Jordan draws the start this week. Last week, in relief of Schultz, Jordan had a 62.9% route run rate, a 14.3% target share, 2.91 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Jordan finished as the TE9 in fantasy last week as he secured three of his four targets with 64 receiving yards. The Jets are tied for the most receiving touchdowns per game allowed to tight ends and have given up the third-most fantasy points per game to inline tight ends (last week, 68.2% inline). Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Tyler Conklin: Conklin has a 13.5% target share, 1.54 YPRR, and a 13.7% first-read share. He is in the desperation streaming conversation this week because of the matchup. Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Week 14 Positional Value: TE2

NE vs. PIT | TB vs. ATL | DET vs. CHI | IND vs. CIN | JAC vs. CLE | CAR vs. NO | HOU vs. NYJ | LAR vs. BAL | MIN vs. LV | SEA vs. SF | BUF vs. KC | DEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | TEN vs. MIA | GB vs. NYG

Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Since Stafford’s return in Week 11, the Rams have ranked eighth in neutral pace and 19th in neutral passing rate.
  • Over the same stretch, Baltimore has had the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Stafford is the QB18 in fantasy and has been on a mini-tear since his return. Over the last two games, he has finished as the QB7 and the QB8 in fantasy. Since Week 12, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 15th in yards per attempt, 16th in CPOE, and 20th in catchable target rate. His fantasy success has been fueled by his seven passing touchdowns, which are tied for the most in the league over that stretch with Dak Prescott. Stafford will come crashing back to earth this week as he faces a Baltimore pass defense that has wrecked quarterbacks. Since Week 8, Baltimore has allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, the lowest adjusted completion rate, and the lowest CPOE. Sit Stafford. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit / QB2

Lamar Jackson: Jackson has faced two definitive pass funnel defenses this season in Tennessee and Detroit. Against those defenses, he finished as the QB2 and the QB9 in fantasy. This should be a huge Jackson game this week. He continues to excel as a passer, ranking fifth in yards per attempt, sixth in CPOE, and fifth in hero throw rate. Since Week 8, the Rams have given up production to Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love to the tune of 7.5 yards per attempt, a 107.3 passer rating, a 70.5% completion rate, and six passing touchdowns. Prescott was the only one who posted a monster stat line, but Love and Murray had quietly efficient games. If the Rams can push Baltimore this week, we could see Jackson go nuclear. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Kyren Williams: Since his return to the lineup, Williams has blown run defenses apart, averaging 23 touches and 158 total yards with weekly finishes as the RB1 and RB9. Williams ranks 16th in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Williams played 94% of the snaps last week. Williams is in a low-key SMASH SPOT this week. Baltimore, since Week 8, has been gashed by gap runs and has fielded an overrated run defense. Since Week 8, they have had the eighth-lowest stuff rate while allowing the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt, the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.02). 67.2% of Williams’ runs have been on gap plays. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1

Keaton Mitchell: Mitchell has seen his snap share increase in four straight games. In Week 12, he played 46% of the snaps with 11 touches and 89 total yards. Mitchell is slowly taking over the backfield. The biggest problem Mitchell will continue to face is his red zone usage. Over his last two games, he has had only a 20% red zone opportunity share (two red zone touches). Edwards has led the backfield with a 53.8% share since Week 10. Mitchell’s rushing metrics are the stuff of legend, with a 17.2% explosive run rate, a 55% missed tackles forced per attempt rate, and 7.52 yards after contact per attempt. With that said, this will be a tough week for Mitchell to produce big numbers on limited volume. Since Week 8, the Rams have allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3

Gus Edwards: Edwards has seen his snaps dwindle in his last three games as Mitchell has taken away more of the work weekly. In Week 12, he played only 27% of the snaps with nine touches and 37 total yards. Edwards has been reduced to a touchdown or bust flex play. Edwards has led the backfield with a 53.8% share since Week 10. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 35th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, the Rams have allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: Touchdown or bust RB3 / flex

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua: In the last three games with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp playing full-time roles, Nacua has led the way in the passing attack with a 27.3% target share, a 41.7% air-yard share, 3.67 YPRR, and a 30.9% first-read share. The Puka Juice remains strong. While he is dealing with a shoulder issue, the Rams have stated it will not impact his game-day availability or playing time. Fire him up as usual. Nacua is the WR10 in fantasy points per game, ranking 23rd in red zone targets. The Rams should look to feed the ground game this week, but when they do take to the air, it’ll be all Nacua. Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers since Week 8 (one receiving touchdown). Week 14 Positional Value: WR2

Cooper Kupp: Kupp has looked like a shell of his former self. In the last three games, he and Stafford have been full-time players, he has seen only a 19.2% target share, a 16% air-yard share (5.5 aDOT), and a 22.1% first-read share with 0.92 YPRR. In those three games, he saw zero designed targets which were his bread and butter when he was cooking the entire league. In those three games, Kupp has seen his slot usage increase (68% slot). Kupp will tangle with Arthur Maulet (68% catch rate and 76.1 passer rating) all day. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3

Zay Flowers: In the two games Flowers has played this season without Mark Andrews, he has handled a 31.5% target share, a 22.0% air-yard share, and a 53.3% first read share with 1.69 YPRR. Since Week 9, the Rams have had the 11th-highest rate of single-high (61.1%). Against single-high, Flowers has had a 25.7% target share, 2.02 YPRR, and a 28.1% first-read share. Flowers will run about 69% of his routes against Derion Kendrick (58% catch rate and 84.4 passer rating) and Akhello Witherspoon (45.5% catch rate and 69.0 passer rating). Week 14 Positional Value: WR2

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr. has been walking a tightrope weekly. Since Week 10, he hasn’t played more than 35% of the snaps in any game. In his last four games, he has had two touchdowns, and in another game, he snagged four balls for 116 receiving yards. Beckham Jr. isn’t on the injury report this week, so we could see a snapshare spike for him. If that’s the case, he could post a nice stat line this week. Since Week 9, the Rams have had the 11th-highest rate of single-high (61.1%). Against single-high, Beckham leads the team with a 24% target per route run rate, 2.71 YPRR, and four end zone targets. Beckham will run about 89% of his routes against Derion Kendrick (58% catch rate and 84.4 passer rating) and Akhello Witherspoon (45.5% catch rate and 69.0 passer rating). Week 14 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR2/3 upside this week

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Higbee has not practiced this week (neck). He has been listed as doubtful. I don’t think he suits up this week, and even if he does, he is a sit candidate. Baltimore has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-lowest receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit

Isaiah Likely: In Week 12, as Baltimore’s starting tight end, Likely had a 69.4% route run rate, a 15.6% target share, 1.60 yards per route run, and a 13.3% first-read share. All of those usage metrics are TE1-worthy. Likely has had an up-and-down history when called upon as Baltimore’s starter, but he should piece together a solid stat line this week. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

NE vs. PIT | TB vs. ATL | DET vs. CHI | IND vs. CIN | JAC vs. CLE | CAR vs. NO | HOU vs. NYJ | LAR vs. BAL | MIN vs. LV | SEA vs. SF | BUF vs. KC | DEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | TEN vs. MIA | GB vs. NYG

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Weekly Advice

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Derek Brown

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Derek Brown is a senior fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.

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24 Players Who Will Rise Up Fantasy Football Draft Boards (2024)

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