The Primer: Week 14 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Las Vegas Raiders

MIN -3, O/U 40.5
Vikings vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Dobbs under center, Minnesota has ranked 19th in neutral pace and 22nd in neutral passing rate.
With Aidan O’Connell as the Raiders’ starter since Week 9, they have had the fourth-slowest neutral pace and ranked 13th in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joshua Dobbs: Dobbs will retain his starter gig this week. In his four games as the Vikings’ starter, he was the QB5, QB3, QB14, and QB28 in weekly fantasy scoring. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Dobbs has struggled as a passer this season, ranking 34th in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating, and 32nd in highly accurate throw rate. His rushing equity has helped him immensely for fantasy. Dobbs ranks third in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks this season. The Raiders have faced a ton of middling quarterbacks this season, which has helped their pass defense stats. Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, and Tua Tagovailoa outed them as frauds, though. Against those three quarterbacks, the Raiders have allowed 8.1 yards per attempt, a 104.9 passer rating, and an 86.9% adjusted completion rate. With Justin Jefferson back, Dobbs should shred this secondary. Week 14 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell has been a decent game manager since taking over as the starter. He hasn’t had a ceiling for fantasy purposes, though, with QB24, QB21, QB21, and QB17 weekly finishes. O’Connell has zero rushing upside, zero games with multiple passing touchdowns, and only one game this season where he has surpassed 7.6 yards per attempt. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest CPOE, and the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns. Week 14 Positional Value: Basement-level QB2

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison: Over the last two games, Mattison has continued to lead the Minnesota backfield with 56-65% of the snaps played, averaging 15.5 touches and 71.5 total yards. In that span, he has handled 71.4% of the backfield’s red zone opportunities. Mattison ranks 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. The Vikings should look to move the ball through the air this week, as the Raiders’ run defense has improved over the last few weeks. Since Week 9, they have held backs to the lowest yards after contact per attempt, the sixth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the eighth-lowest explosive run rate. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3

Ty Chandler: Chandler remains a handcuff only. Over the last two games, he has averaged only 32% of the snaps played, and Mattison has still owned the red zone work. In Week 12, Chandler played only 33% of the snaps with five touches and 11 total yards. The matchup is also not conducive to him producing healthy yardage totals on limited volume. Since Week 9, the Raiders have held backs to the lowest yards after contact per attempt, the sixth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the eighth-lowest explosive run rate. Week 14 Positional Value: Handcuff

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is the RB12 in fantasy, ranking fifth in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in weighted opportunities. Since Week 9, he has averaged 23.6 touches and 100.3 total yards. Under his new head coach, he has finished as the RB3, RB21, RB37, and RB5 in weekly scoring. Jacobs remains the billboard king of volume because his efficiency metrics have remained in the toilet. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 51st in yards after contact per attempt. Jacobs will need all the volume he can get this week against a strong Vikings run defense. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the fifth-lowest rushing yards per game. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson: Justin Jefferson is back. He is practicing in full. He has a 26.0% target share, a 37.9% air-yard share, 2.99 YPRR, and a 35% first-read share this season. Here’s the #analysis. Play him. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Jordan Addison: With Dobbs under center, Addison has had a 22.4% target share, a 42.1% air-yard share, 1.94 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. All of those numbers will decline with a healthy Justin Jefferson back in the huddle. The question is, by how much? Even with Jefferson out of the lineup, Addison has been volatile, finishing as WR29, WR33, WR48, and WR40 over his last four games. Addison should level out as a weekly WR3/4, with Jefferson providing a boost to Dobbs’ efficiency and the overall efficiency of this passing attack. Since Week 8, the Raiders have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3/4

Davante Adams: With O’Connell tossing the rock since Week 9, Adams has handled a 29.1% target share, a 49.5% air-yard share, and a 34.8% first-read share with 2.24 YPRR. In those four games, Adams has finished as the WR45, WR21, WR8, and WR32 in weekly scoring while seeing three red zone targets. Overall, Adams is the WR20 in fantasy points per game, ranking fourth in deep targets and first in red zone targets among wide receivers. Adams should have a strong day in Week 14 against a secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR2

Jakobi Meyers: With O’Connell as the team’s starter over the last four games, Meyers has seen his target share dwindle to 15%, his air-yard share fall to 18.3%, and his first-read share sits at 18.5%. Meyers has surpassed 50 receiving yards only once in this four-game sample. Since Week 8, Minnesota has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR4

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: In Weeks 1-5 with Jefferson in the lineup, Hockenson was the TE4 in fantasy, commanding a 19.1% target share and a 22.4% first-read share with 1.54 YPRR. In those four games, he had six red zone looks. The Raiders have allowed the second-highest catch rate and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

Michael Mayer: Since Week 9, Mayer has had a 56.4% route run rate, an 11% target share, 1.37 YPRR, and a 14.1% first-read share. Since Week 7, he has finished as a TE1 only once. The Raiders have taken the air out of the ball in this run-first offense, which has crushed Mayer’s fantasy value. He also has only two red zone looks over his last six games. Minnesota ranks 19th in fantasy points per game, and receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE2

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

SF -12.5, O/U 46.5
Seahawks vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, Seattle has ranked third in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate. Chef Geno could be back in the kitchen.
Over their last four games, the 49ers have ranked dead last in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith is dealing with what is considered a two-week injury to his groin, and as much as the Seahawks QB would like to try to play through it, Seattle is not expected to decide on his availability for Sunday’s game vs. the 49ers until pregame warmups.https://t.co/jRUZqyT7FW

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 10, 2023

Geno Smith: Don’t look now, but Chef Geno could be back. He has finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in two of his last four games (QB5, QB1). His deeper metrics have stated loudly all season that he hasn’t been playing as badly as public perception detailed. He is 12th in yards per attempt, sixth in hero throw rate, and 17th in CPOE. He’s set to duel this week against a secondary that tormented him in Week 12, but this time around could be different. The 49ers have been an average pass defense for much of this season. Since Week 8, they have ranked 14th in passing yards per game, 20th in passer rating, and 14th in CPOE allowed. Smith stumbled over a player in practice and tweaked his groin. He has been listed as questionable, so his status for this week is up in the air. Smith is a game time decision. If Drew Lock draws the start, bump down your expectations for the entire Seattle offense. Week 14 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Brock Purdy: Purdy keeps torching defenses weekly. He is the QB6 in fantasy points per game, with QB1 outings in four of his last five games. Across his last six games played, he has only failed to reach 270 yards passing and 9.0 yards per attempt once. Yep, you guessed it. That was against Seattle. He was the QB22 in fantasy that week. Purdy ranks first in yards per attempt, third in CPOE, and 11th in adjusted completion rate. He faces off against a Seattle pass defense that has shown some cracks in the armor since Week 8, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, fourth in passing touchdowns (tied), and 11th in passer rating. Purdy should rebound with a QB1 showing in Week 14. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Seahawks’ RBs Kenneth Walker III (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee), both listed as questionable for Sunday, both are expected to play vs. the 49ers, per sources.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 10, 2023

Kenneth Walker: The Seattle backfield will be a mess this week. Walker didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he was limited on Thursday and practiced in full on Friday. He has been listed as questionable (oblique). Assuming he suits up, I anticipate him being the team’s early down thumper. Assuming both he and Charbonnet play this week, Walker will handle the rushing load. In Week 10, he played 48% of the snaps, handling 19 rushing attempts with 63 rushing yards. He did have two targets and took one of them 64 yards for a score, but he only ran eight routes (16.3% route run rate). Since Week 9, San Francisco has tightened the screws back down against rushing attacks allowing the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3

Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet is working through a knee issue. He was a limited participant in practice on Thursday and practiced in full on Friday. He has been listed as questionable this week. Assuming he plays this week, he’ll be the passing down back for Seattle. In Week 10, with both he and Walker active, he played 52% of the snaps with ten touches and 62 total yards. This is a tough matchup for Charbonnet. Since Week 9, San Francisco has tightened the screws back down against rushing attacks allowing the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Overall, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-lowest yards per reception to backs this season. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3/4

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey remains the RB1 in fantasy, ranking second in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, second in weighted opportunity, and first in red zone touches. In his last meeting with this defense, he finished with 24 touches and 139 total yards (two scores). McCaffrey should have no issues burning this run defense down again in Week 14. Since Week 8, Seattle has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most missed tackles per attempt, and the highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: THE RB1

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf: After his monster performance against Dallas, Metcalf is now the WR18 in fantasy points per game. He ranks ninth in deep targets and sixth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 8, he has had a 24.1% target share, a 47.2% air-yard share, 2.41 YPRR, and a 32% first-read share. Over the last six games, he leads the team with nine end-zone targets. Since Week 12, the 49ers have utilized two-high at the seventh-highest rate (56%). Since Week 8 against two-high, Metcalf has seen his target share dip to 17.6%, his air-yard share fall to 37.2%, and his first-read share fall to 24.6%. This game sets up as a sneaky Tyler Lockett game. Week 14 Positional Value: WR2

Tyler Lockett: This game screams Tyler Lockett week. He is finally not on the injury report. Lockett is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, ranking 19th in red zone targets. Lockett has surpassed 60 receiving yards in a game only once since Week 9. That trend halts this week. Since Week 12, the 49ers have utilized two-high at the seventh-highest rate (56%). Since Week 8 against two-high, Lockett has had a 22.0% target share, a team-leading 45.6% air-yard share, 1.92 YPRR, and a team-leading 29.5% first-read share. Lockett should turn back the clock this week. Week 14 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba just quietly had his breakout game against Dallas with 11 targets, seven receptions, and 62 receiving yards. Add in the touchdown that was called back, and Smith-Njigba would have been cooking. Since Week 8, he has had a 16.4% target share, a 15.3% air-yard share, 1.75 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. Since Week 12, the 49ers have utilized two-high at the seventh-highest rate (56%). Since Week 8 against two-high, Smith-Njigba has had a 16.5% target share, 1.41 YPRR, and an 18% first-read share. Chef Geno will lean on Lockett this week. Since Week 9, the 49ers have allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3/4

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR14 in fantasy points per game. The last time he faced this secondary, he secured two of his four targets with 50 receiving yards and a score (WR30). Seattle’s corners have played well all season, but recently, they have shown some flexibility with the 12th-most PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers since Week 8. Since Week 9, Seattle has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (82.2%). In the eight games that Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle have been full-time players, Aiyuk has led the team with a 22.5% target share, a 42.7% air-yard share, 3.47 YPRR, and a 28.7% first-read share against zone. Don’t be surprised if Aiyuk leads the 49ers in receiving this week with a big game. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1/2

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been crushing since his Week 10 return, with at least 15.9 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He has now risen to the WR15 in fantasy points per game with the sixth-most total touchdowns among wide receivers. Since Week 9, Seattle has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (82.2%). In the eight games that Aiyuk, Samuel, and George Kittle have been full-time players, Samuel has had a 20.5% target share, 2.74 YPRR, and a 22.3% first-read share against zone. Samuel has returned to the wide back role, but he has also chipped in at least three rushing attempts, 15 rushing yards, and a rushing score in three of his last four games. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1/2

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle is the TE5 in fantasy points per game while ranking first in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets among tight ends. Kittle has been quiet the last two weeks, with less than 11 fantasy points in each game. This would be a nice spot for him to erupt, but it isn’t easy to forecast this week with so many other 49ers in advantageous spots. Since Week 9, Seattle has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (82.2%). In the eight games that Aiyuk, Samuel, and George Kittle have been full-time players, Kittle has had a 17.9% target share, 2.10 YPRR, and an 18.1% first-read share against zone. Seattle has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends, but they have also held the position to the fifth-fewest receiving touchdowns per game. I expect Kittle to take a backseat this week. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

KC -1, O/U 49
Bills vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Joe Brady at the controls, the Bills have been second in neutral pace while dropping to 20th in neutral passing rate.
This game should fly. Since Week 9, Kansas City has ranked seventh in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Allen remains the QB1 in fantasy. With Joe Brady calling the shots, this offense has looked much better. Since Week 11, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, Allen ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 15th in turnover-worthy throw rate, fifth in hero throw rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 9, Kansas City’s once fearsome defense has begun to spring some leaks, ranking ninth in passer rating, 17th in CPOE, and 15th in adjusted completion rate. A large part of this has been their new issues defending the deep ball. Since Week 9, they have allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Allen will let it fly in Week 14. Week 14 Positional Value: THE QB1

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is the QB7 in fantasy points per game, but there have been some adventurous weeks lately with his subpar wide receiver room. Since Week 8, Mahomes has finished as the QB31, QB13, QB15, QB8, and QB16 in fantasy. Over his last five games, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating, 12th in CPOE, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. Those are eye-opening numbers. Mahomes could enjoy a resurgent week against a Bills secondary that has recently struggled, allowing the sixth-most passing touchdowns, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate since Week 9. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

James Cook: With Brady calling the shots, Cook has been thriving. Over his last two games, he has played 43-46% of the snaps, averaging 21 touches and 101 total yards as the RB10 and RB12 in weekly scoring. Since Week 11, Cook has garnered 50% of the backfield red zone opportunities. Among 58 qualifying backs, Cook ranks 27th in explosive run rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Cook should have another field day against a Chiefs’ run defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and third-highest yards after contact per attempt while also logging the fourth-lowest stuff rate. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco has been ruled out.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Edwards-Helaire will lead the backfield this week, per Andy Reid. We’ll see what that means and how much he plays versus Jerick McKinnon. Edwards-Helaire has played sparingly this season, with only 47 touches this season. Among 68 qualifying backs, he is 43rd in explosive run rate and 50th in yards after contact per attempt. I reasonably expect Edwards-Helaire to log 10-12 touches this week, with some room for more. The biggest problem for Edwards-Helaire is that Buffalo’s run defense has improved a lot over the last few weeks. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the 13th-lowest rushing touchdown rate, the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the eighth-lowest missed tackles per attempt. Edwards-Helaire is a flex play that is better off on your bench this week. Without Pacheco, Reid likely leans into the passing game more in Week 14. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3/4

Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon will be back this week. He practiced in full on Thursday and Friday (groin). McKinnon has played sparingly this season, with only two games with more than a 35% snap share. The highlight of his utility for Kansas City and for fantasy purposes will be through the air. This is a fantastic game for McKinnon to return value as a dart throw PPR flex play. Buffalo has allowed the fourth-highest receiving yards per game and yards per reception to backs this season. Week 14 Positional Value: High upside dice roll flex play

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Diggs could get shadowed by L’Jarius Sneed this week, who has been shadowing top receivers all season. Since Week 11, he has continued to shadow, following Romeo Doubs, Davante Adams, and A.J. Brown on roughly 71-83% of their routes. Doubs and Adams both surpassed 65 receiving yards in Sneed’s primary coverage, so this matchup isn’t the coffin nail that it was earlier in the season. Also, Brown was held to only eight receiving yards in Sneed’s shadow, so there’s still the chance that Sneed shuts him down. Diggs is the WR6 in fantasy, ranking sixth in red zone targets. Since Week 8, with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid integrated into the offense, Diggs has had a 23% target share, a 21.3% air-yard share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 29.7% first-read share. Since Week 9, Kansas City has utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (74.3%). Over his last five games, against two-high, Diggs has had a 20.9% target share, 1.89 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Gabriel Davis: Davis is the WR41 in fantasy, ranking 13th in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. If Allen is looking to attack deep, Davis should be part of the equation. He leads the team with 17 deep targets (Diggs 14). Since Week 8 with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid integrated into the offense. Davis has seen a 17.1% target share, a 31.8% air-yard share (team-leading), and a 22.0% first read share with 1.39 YPRR. Since Week 9, Kansas City has utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (74.3%). Over his last five games, against two-high, Davis has a 15.1% target share, a 32.9% air-yard share, and a 19.6% first-read share. Since Week 8, he has led the team with three deep targets against two-high. If Sneed is covering Diggs all day, Davis will see Joshua Williams (66.7% catch rate and 119.2 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (60% catch rate and 117.5 passer rating) all day. Davis is primed for a monster day. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

Khalil Shakir: Since Week 8, Shakir has had an 11.2% target share, 2.29 YPRR, and a 6.8% first read share. Over the same timeframe, Shakir has ranked second on the team in deep targets, behind only Davis. Since Week 9, Kansas City has utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (74.3%). Over his last five games, against two-high, Shakir has seen a 14% target share and a 16.8% air-yard share with a team-best 2.88 YPRR. Shakir will run about 76% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (70.9% catch rate and 104.1 passer rating). Shakir is a flex play that could crush all expectations this week. Since Week 8, Kansas City has allowed the third-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: Flex play with WR3 upside

Rashee Rice: The Chiefs don’t have the luxury of messing around anymore with these wide receiver committees. It’s go time, and Rice has been leaned on the last two weeks. He has played 67-69% of snaps since Week 12 with a 65% route run rate, 28.4% target share, 3.42 YPRR, and a 34.1% first-read share. Since Week 9, Buffalo has utilized two-high at the fourth-highest rate (60%). Against two-high, Rice leads the team with a 28% target per route run rate and three end zone targets while also ranking second on the team with 2.27 YPRR. Mahomes will feed Rice again this week. Week 14 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: Since Week 7, Kincaid has handled a 19.7% target share and a 21.8% first-read share, producing 1.90 YPRR. Since Week 7, Kincaid has been the TE7 in fantasy with four red zone targets. Since Week 9, Kansas City has utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (74.3%). Since Week 7, Kincaid has had a 20.4% target share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 23.7% first-read share against two-high. This doesn’t project as a huge Kincaid game. Kansas City has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Dawson Knox could be activated for this week’s game. With how well Kincaid has played without Knox in the lineup, it’s hard to see the team moving back to a two-tight-end system where Knox limits Kincaid’s usage, but we’ll see. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

Travis Kelce: If you have Kelce, you are starting him weekly. No matter what. He remains the TE1 in fantasy, ranking second in targets, target share, and red zone targets. Since losing Matt Milano, Buffalo has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -2.5, O/U 44
Broncos vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, Denver has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Over the same span, the Bolts have ranked 12th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: Wilson is the QB15 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings in his last four games (QB11, QB12, QB11). Wilson’s rushing has helped pump up his fantasy value this season. He ranks eighth in rushing yards and ninth in carries per game among quarterbacks. Wilson has rushing scores in each of his last two games. Wilson ranks 20th in yards per attempt, eighth in CPOE, and third in adjusted completion rate. Wilson could flirt with QB1 value again this week. Since Week 7, the Bolts have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-most passing touchdowns, and the sixth-highest CPOE. Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Justin Herbert: Herbert is the QB5 in fantasy, but he has finished as a QB1 in only three of his last six games as the Bolts offense has had problems. Since Week 9, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert has ranked 28th in yards per attempt, 20th in passer rating, 27th in CPOE, and 27th in adjusted completion rate. It hasn’t been pretty. Herbert could be headed for another lackluster stat line this week. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the fewest passing touchdowns. Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

Javonte Williams: Williams is the RB32 in fantasy points per game, ranking 23rd in opportunity share, 24th in weighted opportunity, and 14th in red zone touches. Williams is still searching for his first rushing touchdown of the season. Over the last two games, Williams has played 65-70% of the snaps, averaging 18.5 touches and 70.5 total yards. He ranks eighth in explosive run rate and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. Williams should have no problems with finding running room this week against a Bolts’ run defense that has taken a step back. Since Week 8, the Chargers have allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the third-most yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

Samaje Perine: Perine is a handcuff only. He only played 12 snaps last week with three touches and six total yards. Across his last seven games, he has seen more than two carries only once. Week 14 Positional Value: Handcuff

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the RB15 in fantasy, ranking tenth in opportunity share, 21st in weighted opportunities, and 16th in red zone touches. Since Week 6, he has averaged 17.2 touches and 72.1 total yards. At this juncture, I don’t know if we will see the 2022 version of Ekeler this season. He has looked a step slow all season. This could be due to the ankle sprain or volume adding up. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 36th in explosive run rate and 52nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. At this point, the hope is that Denver will be the magic elixir to get Ekeler jump-started again. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the tenth-highest missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Sutton is the WR24 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in red zone targets and third in total touchdowns among wide receivers. Sutton has had a 21.7% target share, a 42.8% air-yard share, 1.88 YPRR, and a 27.5% first-read share. He has a whopping 13 end-zone targets this season. Since Week 6, the Bolts rank 14th in PPR points per target and receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Sutton should have another solid day. Week 14 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy is the WR57 in fantasy and droppable. He has scored one touchdown all season and surpassed 60 receiving yards only once since Week 3. The hope that he will turn his season around is dead. Wilson has leaned heavily on Sutton all year long, and that doesn’t seem to be changing. Steve Smith was right. Week 14 Positional Value: Droppable

Keenan Allen: Allen is the WR2 in fantasy, ranking first in targets, second in target share, and 11th in red zone targets. Prior to last week’s down game against the Patriots, he had rattled off three straight games with at least 14 targets, 10 receptions, and 106 receiving yards. Denver has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to opposing slot receivers. Allen is no stranger to overcoming tough matchups, so fire him up as usual as a WR1 this week. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Quentin Johnston: Josh Palmer has returned to practice. We’ll see if he can gain clearance to play this week. If he does, it does not hurt Johnston’s value because he has done very little with Palmer out of the picture. Last week, Johnston had a season-high in targets with seven, and he only turned it into 52 receiving yards, which sadly was also a season-high. Week 14 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: Everett has played 64% of the snaps in each of his last two games, which are his highest snap share marks since Week 6. Over the last two games, Everett has had an 11.1% target share with 1.78 YPRR. This week, Everett could be knocking on the door of TE1 production. Denver has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Weekly Advice Aidan O’Connell Joshua Dobbs Jared Goff Patrick Mahomes Tua Tagovailoa Justin Jefferson Alexander Mattison Ty Chandler Josh Jacobs Jordan Addison Davante Adams Jakobi Meyers T.J. Hockenson Michael Mayer Geno Smith Brock Purdy Kenneth Walker Zach Charbonnet Christian McCaffrey D.K. Metcalf Tyler Lockett Jaxon Smith-Njigba Brandon Aiyuk Deebo Samuel George Kittle Josh Allen James Cook Isiah Pacheco Stefon Diggs L’Jarius Sneed Romeo Doubs A.J. Brown Khalil Shakir Dalton Kincaid Gabriel Davis Joshua Williams Jaylen Watson Trent McDuffie Rashee Rice Travis Kelce Matt Milano Russell Wilson Justin Herbert Javonte Williams Samaje Perine Austin Ekeler Courtland Sutton Jerry Jeudy Keenan Allen Quentin Johnston Josh Palmer Gerald Everett