Well, Week 1 has come and gone. I regret to inform everyone out there that I did not win the FREE $1 billion perfect lineup contest. Austin Hooper and Tarik Cohen just weren’t in the cards. The good news though is that my addiction to DFS has been completely re-invigorated.
My Week 1 value plays were a mixed bag. ‘Downtown’ Josh McCown and his rushing touchdown made for good value at $4,600. Rams D/ST, Zach Ertz, and Todd Gurley were hits as well. As for Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson, and Kendall Wright… not so much.
But that’s OK, because I’ve moved on to Week 2 now, and like always, I have the $1 million line-up for this week. Here are my top DraftKings value plays for Week 2.
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Quarterback
Carson Palmer (ARI): $6,000 v. IND
Did you hear that the U.S. is going to send Carson Palmer to North Korea? They figure that he’s the only one that can overthrow Kim Jong-Un.
All jokes aside, Carson Palmer’s Week 1 performance against the Lions was no laughing matter if you happened to pair him with Andrew Luck and start him in season-long leagues for the first few weeks due to his soft schedule (not that I did that or anything). Palmer was horrible as he threw three interceptions, and somehow couldn’t even manage nine standard league points on 48 passing attempts.
Palmer isn’t extremely low priced for a QB at $6,000, but he also won’t be an overly popular play with most DFSers gravitating toward the higher priced guys in what are projected to be high-scoring affairs (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan). The good news for Palmer is that the Colts are already really banged up in the secondary, and they made Jared Goff look like “not Jared Goff” in Week 1. Unfortunately for the Cardinals as a football franchise that hopes to actually win games, they are going to have to rely more on Palmer’s arm with David Johnson out, and the Colts showed pretty well against the run vs. the Rams in Week 1 as they held Todd Gurley to 40 yards on 19 carries. Expect Palmer to air it out once again, and hopefully be more efficient with those attempts, against an Indy defense missing top cornerback Vontae Davis.
Running Back
Ty Montgomery (GB): $5,800 v. ATL
Montgomery is going to be in a lot of lineups this week and for good reason. Montgomery took the ball 19 times for 54 yards and a touchdown against a stout Seahawks run defense while adding on four catches for 39 yards. He’s going to be a big part of the offense, and the Falcons had a tough time in Week 1 containing Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. His price isn’t nearly high enough yet.
Chris Carson (SEA): $4,100 v. SF
I have a feeling those who spent big on Tarik Cohen and ignored Chris Carson are going to regret it. The Seahawks offense was horrific against the Packers, in particular, the offensive line, but Carson was a bright spot as he led the backfield in snaps and carried it nine times for 36 yards. The Seahawks backfield is a bit muddled right now, but there is some clarity on the horizon. Eddie Lacy is done, and I’d be surprised if he was still on the team four weeks from now. C.J. Prosise is the preferred passing option, and Thomas Rawls is due back. Rawls’ return is going to scare people away from Carson, but the reality is that Rawls is frequently hurt and just not very good (3.2 ypc last season). There’s also the reports that head coach Pete Carroll is ”anxious to see more” of Carson.
Somebody in Seattle’s backfield is going to have a big game because they play the 49ers. I actually got a tattoo last year that says, “RBs v. SF 2016” and I just got it updated to say “& 2017,” so the 49ers are going to be a defense to target for running backs. Otherwise, my tattoo will look stupid, and nobody wants that.
Wide Receiver
Randall Cobb (GB): $5,900 v. ATL
Here’s another Packer who is going to see his price rise in the coming weeks, but it’s not there yet. Cobb has always been a playmaker but took a backseat to Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams in 2016 as Rodgers threw for 40 touchdowns. Cobb caught 9-of-13 targets for 85 yards in Week 1 which seemed to fulfill head coach Mike McCarthy’s offseason desires to get him more touches.
J.J. Nelson (ARI): $3,800 v. IND
The Colts pass defense is going to be one to target all year, and Nelson has the speed (4.28) to bust out a big play or two. Nelson was targeted six times in last week’s loss to Detroit, catching five balls for 42 yards and a garbage-time touchdown. Nelson has been on a bit of a touchdown binge dating back to last season as he has five touchdowns in his last six games, and he and Palmer have a great rapport. The injury to David Johnson doesn’t hurt either as there will be a whole bunch of targets to be disseminated among the remaining receiving options for the Cards.
Also, keep an eye on John Brown who was limited in practice on Wednesday which may just be rest or may be a reoccurrence of his quad injury. If Brown sits, Nelson would enter must-play territory.
Tight End
Cameron Brate (TB): $3,000 v. CHI
Brate’s value has taken a tumble due to the selection of rookie TE O.J. Howard out of Alabama, but rarely do rookie TEs make a big impact. Winston trusts Brate, and the Bears allowed the biggest game to a tight end in Week 1 as Austin Hooper torched them for 128 yards and a score (on only two catches). If you’re going to bypass Gronk, take a chance on Brate in Week 2.
Defense/Special Teams
Rams D/ST (LAR): $3,000 v. WAS
I’m going back to the well with the Rams this week. The hot play is going to be the Cardinals in Indy, but Jacoby Brissett is not nearly as terrible as Scott ”Not Another” Tolzien ”Movie.” The Rams will be getting top DT Aaron Donald back, and the Redskins looked like a mess against the Eagles. The chemistry seems to be off there, and it’s important to note that their former OC, Sean McVay, is now head coach of the opposing team. There’s no run game to speak of either with ”Bad Eddie Lacy” (Rob Kelley) leading the charge. The Rams are still much too undervalued.
Let’s make a million in Week 2! Good luck!
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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.
