Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 47.0
Line: DAL by 6.5

This line looks like it could belong on a game played between these two teams last year, and that’s despite the fact that the Rams will have had 10 days to prepare for this game while the Cowboys will be on just six days rest after playing against the Cardinals on Monday night. This is not the same Cowboys defense that it was last year and it’s not the same Rams offense you’re used to. The Cowboys are extremely thin at cornerback with injuries to Nolan Carroll and Chidobe Awuzie, who missed Monday night’s game, as well as Orlando Scandrick, who was forced to leave that game with his hand injury. It’ll be something to keep an eye on as this game approaches, because they weren’t a talented team at cornerback to begin with.

QBs: This is not a joke – Jared Goff has led the Rams to the most points in the NFL through three weeks. It helps that he played against the Colts and 49ers, but still. 2016 Goff wouldn’t have done that. The Cowboys have now allowed six passing scores and one interception over the last two weeks to the combination of Trevor Siemian and Carson Palmer. Their touchdown to interception ratio in games against non-Cowboys opponents is just four touchdowns to seven interceptions. Goff should be looked at as a solid QB2, though he worries me because of the way he looked in Week 3 of the preseason. That old quarterback is still in there somewhere, though he has played phenomenal thus far. Dak Prescott has overcome a lot to start the season, stacking up 56 fantasy points in the first three weeks despite playing against the Giants, Broncos, and Cardinals. He’s an elite QB1 this week against the Rams who have allowed 8.1 yards per attempt to the combination of Scott Tolzien, Kirk Cousins, and Brian Hoyer. This will be the first game where he can target Dez Bryant relentlessly without a top-10 cornerback draped to him in coverage. The pass rush is really the only thing that hid the Rams secondary, but the Cowboys offensive line is built to withstand the pressure.

RBs: It’s been some start to the season for Todd Gurley, who now sits as the No. 2 fantasy running back behind only Kareem Hunt. We have to keep in mind that he played against the Colts, Redskins, and 49ers, all of whom were bottom-six run defenses last year. The Cowboys were much better than that and have played solid against the run this year. In order for Gurley to get the 20-plus carries he’s been getting, the Rams will need to play out in front of the Cowboys, which I don’t see happening. He’s used in the passing game, which will help against a Cowboys defense that’s already allowed three running backs to eclipse 35 yards through the air. Consider Gurley a low-end RB1 this week, but temper expectations, because he won’t win you a week again. Ezekiel Elliott overcame an extremely difficult matchup against the Cardinals last week to post a rock-solid 18.4 PPR points. It was good to see after the debacle against the Broncos. This figures to be a massive game for him, as the three teams who have played the Rams have averaged 30 carries per game and have scored five rushing touchdowns, the most in the NFL. Aaron Donald has now been back for two games, and they allowed four touchdowns in those games, so it’s not that. Marlon Mack was the RB17, Chris Thompson was the RB5, and Carlos Hyde was the RB6 against them. Start Zeke as you normally would and target him in DFS.

WRs: It was good to see Sammy Watkins get onto the stat sheet last week with 106 yards and two touchdowns, and owners should be pleased that this matchup calls for another big game. The Cowboys don’t have that alpha at cornerback, so they’ll try to defend him by committee, which should end well for Watkins owners. With their injuries piling up, they’ve allowed the combination of Emmanuel Sanders and Larry Fitzgerald to post 19/211/3 against them. Slot Watkins in your lineup as a WR2 before his schedule gets extremely difficult. Of course this all hinges on whether or not Watkins gets cleared from his concussion. Cooper Kupp had a quiet game last week, but it really came down to matchup, as Watkins was the one with the best matchup on the field. It’s difficult to say how tough/easy his matchup is right now without knowing which defensive backs will be available, but if Orlando Scandrick is out, you should upgrade Kupp to a WR3. As of now, consider him a WR4 who should take a backseat to Watkins once again. Yes, Robert Woods had a solid performance against the 49ers, but you don’t want to trust him on a weekly basis – he belongs on waiver wires. This is the moment you’ve been waiting for Dez Bryant owners. While Trumaine Johnson is a solid cornerback, he’s not on the level of Patrick Peterson or Janoris Jenkins, who were both able to shut Bryant down. While Johnson hasn’t allowed a touchdown in coverage yet this year, he is allowing over 10 yards per target and has been susceptible to the big play. The great news for Bryant is that he’s now averaging 9.0 targets per game, the second-highest mark of his career. He’s a WR1 in this contest. It seems that the Cowboys are starting to phase Cole Beasley out of the offense, as he’s garnered just 14 targets through three games, including just one in Week 3. Don’t get impressed with Brice Butler just yet – he played exactly seven snaps against the Cardinals. While he should see the field more, he’s well behind Terrance Williams in snaps, who had 33 of them. Nobody outside of Bryant should be trusted in season-long leagues.

TEs: It’s a mess at tight end for the Rams, as there are three of them playing snaps. Tyler Higbee is the one who continues to lead them in snaps, so he’d be the one to bet on, though you don’t need to do that. The Cowboys allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last year and don’t seem much better through the start of 2017, but Higbee hasn’t topped three targets this season. I warned you about the Cardinals defense against tight ends last week, so hopefully you sat Jason Witten. The Rams were also very good against tight ends last year, but not to the extent of the Cardinals where I would completely avoid Witten. They only allowed two tight ends to top 52 yards last year, but with all the uncertainty at the tight end position, Witten belongs in the back-end TE1 conversation.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons

Total: 48.5
Line: ATL by 8.0

There were some people who were actually predicting the Bills to beat the Broncos last week, but it’s doubtful that you’ll find anyone to say that in Week 4. The Falcons are clicking on all cylinders and the only reason the game was close last week against the Lions was due to Matt Ryan‘s two interceptions that put the team in a bad spot. The Bills defense has been very surprising through the first three weeks, but this will be the first real test they’ve had. With the line sitting at 8.0 while I’m writing this, Vegas doesn’t seem to think they’ll hold up to the test.

QBs: After what looked like might be the end of Tyrod Taylor against the Panthers, he came back with a phenomenal performance against the Broncos, posting 17.8 fantasy points, and just 1.3 of them came from rushing. The Falcons defense has faced 95 attempts over the last two weeks from Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, but only allowed 607 yards and three touchdowns. That’s not bad considering how many passes were thrown. With that being said, they’ve allowed 12 of the last 19 quarterbacks they’ve played to score 16 or more fantasy points. There were three quarterbacks who rushed for 30 or more yards against them last year, though just one of them scored. Consider Taylor a high-end QB2 in what should be a high-scoring contest. Matt Ryan hasn’t looked quite as efficient as he was in 2016, but it’s also worth noting that the running backs have accounted for five of their nine offensive touchdowns. That will change soon. Ryan has only thrown an average of 31 pass attempts per game, which isn’t going to net him elite QB1 numbers over the season. The Bills have played Josh McCown, Cam Newton, and Trevor Siemian through three weeks, so it’s hard to judge their new defense, though it’s been better than suspected. At home, though, Ryan has been lights out, so we’ll give him and the offense the benefit of the doubt and start him as a QB1.

RBs: After two bad outings, LeSean McCoy is going to be under-owned in DFS this week, something that you should take advantage of. The Falcons have seen the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL through three games, so it’s difficult to say that they turned around what was one of the weaker run defenses in the league last year. McCoy is involved regardless of game-script, and this one plays into his pass catching abilities, as running backs have already accumulated 25 receptions for over 200 yards and two touchdowns against them. McCoy is a high-end RB1, especially in PPR formats. Mike Tolbert will be a pain and score touchdowns from time to time, but would you start Matt Asiata last year? He’s a lesser version of Asiata, so avoid him. Devonta Freeman is on a touchdown-scoring frenzy, as he now has four rushing scores through three games. He’s also been much better at home or inside domes over his career, so there’s no reason to avoid him in this contest, even though the Bills run defense has looked extremely solid under Sean McDermott. They’ve allowed just one touchdown through three games, but they haven’t been what we would call high-powered offenses. Freeman has taken command of the timeshare into what we thought it would be when the season started and has now out-snapped Tevin Coleman 116 to 74. Freeman is a low-end RB1 for this contest due to it being at home. Coleman has averaged 9.7 touches per game to this point, which means that he’ll be big play or bust the majority of the time. It’s difficult to say that’ll come this week, as we’ve already talked about – the Bills haven’t allowed much scoring. Coleman is just a desperation option at flex, who shouldn’t be relied on without Freeman missing time.

WRs: If you want to know which Bills wide receiver to start every week, you might as well go and flip a coin. Both Jordan Matthews and Zay Jones are playing all of the snaps, but they have combined for just 23 targets through three games. Jones has been one of football’s least-efficient wide receivers in the league, averaging just 3.25 yards per target. If you’re betting on one against the Falcons, Matthews would be the most logical, simply because he’s the best player. The Falcons cornerback trio of Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford, and Brian Poole isn’t out of this world good, but they’re competent enough to limit upside. It’s hard to trust Matthews as anything more than a WR4 until we see his targets rise, while Jones belongs on waiver wires. Andre Holmes is third on the team in snaps, meaning you don’t want to trust him on a team that throws the ball just 26 times per game. It’s gotten quite frustrating to continue watching Julio Jones be underused in the Falcons offense in the prime of his career, as his 26 targets ranks 11th behind guys like Golden Tate and Emmanuel Sanders. Both Tre’Davious White and E.J. Gaines have played solidly in 2017, but they haven’t had a test like Jones. He’s a team player, but don’t be surprised if Jones speaks up behind closed doors and says he needs more looks. Gaines was burned for nine touchdowns in coverage last year with the Rams and White is still a rookie, so don’t let this matchup scare you. He’s an elite WR1 who will likely be under-owned in DFS because of his lackluster start. Mohamed Sanu has seen just five fewer targets than Jones and he’s got another plus-matchup out of the slot with Leonard Johnson this week. With me projecting Jones to have a big day, it’s hard to say that Sanu is anything more than a WR4, though he has a solid floor. Taylor Gabriel is the clear No. 3 wide receiver on the team, so he’ll rely on the big play with limited targets, but he’s also someone who’s played better in the dome. Don’t play him in season-long leagues, but you can take the contrarian approach in tournaments.

TEs: This is a game where the Bills will likely have to throw a bit more, so pay attention to Charles Clay, who has a team-high 18 targets, which amounts to a 23 percent target share. I can’t explain how massive that is. The Falcons were brutal against tight ends last year, but seemed to have righted the ship a bit in 2017. On 32 targets to the tight end position, they’ve allowed just 16/156/0. Still, Clay is in the TE1 conversation because of his projected targets in a game where they’ll throw more than usual. It’s frustrating to see Austin Hooper not be in Steve Sarkisian’s offense, having just two targets in each game. If you were to remove the one 88-yard touchdown against the Bears, Hooper would have just four catches for 58 yards and no touchdowns. On top of that, the Bills have played tight ends solidly through three weeks. He’s strictly a DFS-only option who can score a touchdown at any time with his athleticism. He simply needs to be used more.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 47.0
Line: LAC by 1.0

This isn’t a game where I thought the Chargers would be favored, but as of the time I’m writing this, they are. They are now 0-3 and just lost a game to the Chiefs, while the Eagles are 2-1 and coming off a big divisional win. With that being said, we saw the Raiders choke after traveling across the country last week, so maybe that’s a real thing. The Chargers also found out last week that they lost cornerback Jason Verrett for the season, which puts them in the same spot they were last year. The Eagles just lost Darren Sproles for the season to a torn ACL and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is also highly questionable for this game. Maybe the Vegas oddsmakers are questioning how the Eagles will cover the Chargers wide receivers, and that’s actually a solid point.

QBs: Through three games, Carson Wentz has looked solid, though the lack of a run game is eventually going to catch up with them. Against the Chargers, the best way to attack them is on the ground, but Wentz will be asked to do more than the first few quarterbacks have, as none of them have topped 33 pass attempts. All three quarterbacks have been able to throw for at least 7.0 yards per attempt and they are going to be without Verrett for the season. The pass rush of the Chargers will have a tough time breaking through a stiff Eagles offensive line, so I’d expect Wentz to post competent QB2 numbers in this game with upside for more. Philip Rivers gets a plus-matchup here against the Eagles who are coming off a game in which they allowed Eli Manning to throw for 366 yards and three touchdowns, almost all in the second half. They simply don’t have the talent in their secondary to stop the Chargers passing attack, so it’d be shocking to see Rivers not finish as a top-10 quarterback this week. In his lone home game this year, he completed 31 of 39 pass attempts for 331 yards and a touchdown. Play him in season-long leagues and DFS this week.

RBs: It may seem like LeGarrette Blount is the running back to own in the Eagles backfield, but I’d urge against that. Wendell Smallwood out-snapped him 43 to 22 and contributes in the passing game in ways that Blount cannot. The Chargers have allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushers in Jay Ajayi and Kareem Hunt, but I wouldn’t bet on either of them from this timeshare doing that. The Chargers haven’t allowed a running back more than 14 yards receiving through three weeks and have allowed just one touchdown to the position. In a game they won’t run away with, it’s tough to play either of them as anything more than an RB3. If Blount doesn’t score, he will leave a lot to be desired. Corey Clement did score a touchdown last week, but he played just seven snaps, leaving him off the fantasy radar this week. Melvin Gordon is reportedly dealing with a bone bruise on his knee, which is what led to Branden Oliver playing more snaps in Week 3. The Chargers are saying that it’s not a big deal, but it’s also enough for me to downgrade him to an RB2 against an Eagles defense that has allowed just 111 yards on 42 carries (2.64 YPC) outside of one 53-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown run. It’s not to say that Gordon isn’t startable, as he’s now scored in 10 of his last 15 full games. This game should land more on Rivers. Oliver himself shouldn’t be considered in fantasy leagues, as he won’t be needed to catch many passes in this game.

WRs: Alshon Jeffery has had a few tough matchups this year, though it should be noted that the Giants didn’t shadow him with Janoris Jenkins. Still, he’s now seen 28 targets through three games, so the production will follow. The issue with trusting him this week is that the Chargers will absolutely shadow him with Casey Hayward in coverage. He was responsible for shutting down opposing No. 1 wide receivers last year with Verrett shelved and he wound up being a Pro Bowler. Jeffery is just a low-end WR2 in this contest who should still be started simply because of all the targets he’s been getting, but don’t expect big results. Avoid him in DFS this week. Torrey Smith is always one play away from posting WR2 numbers, and it could be one of those weeks with Smith dealing with Hayward. Trevor Williams is the cornerback who’ll see him the majority of the time, and he’s someone who struggled when he was asked to play a bigger role last year. He’s an undrafted free agent from 2016 who is competent, but not untouchable. Smith isn’t someone I’d want to trust in season-long leagues, but he may be worth a shot if you’re running a few tournament lineups. After his strong Week 1, Nelson Agholor has gone back to being… well, Nelson Agholor. He’s got just six targets and 29 yards the last two weeks. He’s not startable. Even though Keenan Allen posted a respectable five-catch, 61-yard performance against the Chiefs, it was a severe disappointment in a plus-matchup against Phillip Gaines. He struggled because of Rivers, but considering we like Rivers this week, we have to trot Allen back out there as a solid WR2 against the Eagles, who just allowed Sterling Shepard to eat them up in the slot for 133 yards and a touchdown, though a lot of that came on one play. Patrick Robinson is their slot cornerback and he actually played for the Chargers not long ago, so it’s possible he knows some of Rivers’ tendencies. This could be the week Tyrell Williams owners were waiting for, as he’s seen seven targets in two of their three games, but both of those games were in tough matchups with the Broncos and Chiefs. He’ll get Jalen Mills in coverage, which is who the Eagles decided to cover Odell Beckham with last week. We all know how that ended. Mills was among the worst cornerbacks in football last year, so that was a questionable decision, at best. I’d consider Williams a high-end WR3 this week and one I’d take a few shots on in DFS lineups. Travis Benjamin was the forgotten Chargers wide receiver this offseason, but he’s just a couple fantasy points off Allen’s production. He’s kind of the Torrey Smith of this offense with a better deep-ball quarterback, so he’s going to be big-play-or-bust a majority of the time. This matchup is solid, so consider him a contrarian play to my Tyrell Williams take, because it shouldn’t shock anyone if he gets behind the Eagles secondary.

TEs: After updating my rest of season rankings this past Monday, Zach Ertz sits as the clear-cut No. 3 option at the position who now has 114 targets over his last 12 games. The trade of Jordan Matthews helped his stock more than anyone and he’s taking full advantage of it. After dropping a touchdown last week, Ertz caught the very next pass for his first touchdown of the year. He’s got three red zone targets through three weeks, so touchdowns should rise from seasons past. The Chargers were a mediocre matchup for tight ends last year and it appears to have leaked into 2017. There have only been 10 targets to tight ends through three weeks, which have resulted in nine catches for 125 yards, though Travis Kelce only saw one target for whatever reason last week. Consider Ertz a rock-solid TE1 who is seeing massive targets. Hunter Henry has now gone two of three weeks without a target, despite playing 51.3 percent of snaps through three games. Antonio Gates is playing slightly more snaps, but he’s gotten nearly double the targets that Henry has. Until we see Gates play fewer than 50 percent of the snaps, Henry is not going to be anything more than a tournament play in DFS. Gates isn’t a great guy to play, either, as he’s not going to be racking up the yardage any time soon. If he doesn’t score, you’ll regret playing him. The Eagles struggle over the middle, which makes it tempting to play one of them and it’s hard for me not to say Henry because he doesn’t rely on hitting pay dirt like Gates does. Henry could be a sharp play in DFS this week, while Gates isn’t safe enough for cash and likely doesn’t have the upside for tournaments.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 44.5
Line: ARI by 7.0

After seeing the Cardinals and 49ers on primetime television, we can likely understand why the Cardinals are touchdown favorites. Through three weeks, the 49ers have allowed 76 points to the Rams, Seahawks, and Panthers offenses. None of those teams are considered potent offenses, and while neither are the Cardinals at this point of the season, it’s fair to expect points out of your Cardinals fantasy players. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense has now had 10 days to heal up and prepare for this game, but the area where they excel (running the ball) is where the Cardinals are playing their best on defense. It’s just hard to see how the 49ers score points in this game, making the line appear right where it should be.

QBs: After scoring less than six fantasy points in his first two games combined, Brian Hoyer posted some solid totals against the Rams last Thursday night. Do not assume that this trend will continue, as his offense can only move two ways – either through Carlos Hyde or Pierre Garcon. Considering that Patrick Peterson will be covering Garcon, it’s safe to say that Hoyer is not an option. He will be outside the top-24 quarterbacks this week and that’d despite the Cardinals defense not being near as good as they used to be. Carson Palmer didn’t look so bad against the Cowboys last week, eh? Their secondary is extremely weak and allowed the Cardinals wide receivers to run wild. The 49ers secondary is even worse. Their pass rush has only totaled three sacks through three games, which should allow the statue Palmer to have time to go through progressions. Palmer has been extremely inconsistent over the last two years, so it’s tough to trust him as anything more than a high-end QB2, but the matchup here says that he should be one of the safest quarterbacks of the week.

RBs: Everyone reading this likely knows about my love for Carlos Hyde, right? Well this is a week where it’ll be difficult him to post anything more than middling RB2 numbers. Of all the things the Cardinals have trended down in over the last year, run defense is not one of them. They have allowed just 2.76 yards per attempt on the season and it’s a large sample size, as every team has totaled at least 22 carries against them. Where you’ll hang your hat with him is around the end zone, as we know he gets all the red zone carries for them and the Cardinals have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns in their last 19 games. In their two games last year, Hyde totaled 22/78/1 in the first meeting and then just 13/14/0 in their second game. Dating back to last year, the Cardinals have allowed just three starting running backs to average more than 3.75 yards per carry. That’s amazing. If Hyde doesn’t score, he’s going to hurt your fantasy team this week. Matt Breida is just a handcuff to Hyde who has no value at the moment. Coming off a very poor outing against the Cowboys, it’s unclear whether or not Chris Johnson will remain the Cardinals starter. I’d argue that Andre Ellington has never had an issue with effectiveness, but rather remaining healthy. They won’t need to pass to their running backs through this game, so unless they publicly make the switch to Ellington, it’ll be difficult to know who to trust. I’d take my shot on Ellington if forced, as he presents the most upside of the group. The 49ers are allowing over 100 yards on the ground per game, so there is likely some value to be had with one of them. Ellington should be looked at as a risk/reward RB4, while Johnson is a boring RB3/4.

WRs: As mentioned in the quarterback paragraph, Pierre Garcon is going to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, who has held Dez Bryant to 2/12/1, T.Y. Hilton to 4/49/0, and Marvin Jones to 2/37/1 through three games. We know that Garcon isn’t the scoring type, so it’s fair to call him a risky WR3 this week. I’d prefer to play an upside WR4 over him this week. Trent Taylor is the starting slot receiver who’ll match-up with Tyrann Mathieu, so you really don’t want to target that matchup. That leaves Marquise Goodwin as someone who could surprise in his matchup with Justin Bethel, who has been abused in coverage so far this year. Goodwin has seen 17 targets, so it’s not like he hasn’t been targeted, either. We saw him connect with Hoyer last week on a 50-yard pass play, so maybe the chemistry has started to develop. You really don’t ever feel confident playing him in season-long, but he’s worth a dart throw in DFS. It was good to see Larry Fitzgerald get on track, though it came after two subpar performances in great matchups. It’s unlikely that he sees 15 targets again, but if there were a matchup to see them, it’s this one. The 49ers slot cornerback K’Waun Williams isn’t really the only matchup that can be exploited, though, which is the reason we can’t go all-in on Fitzgerald. You can almost pick how you want to attack them, so it could be Fitzgerald, Jaron Brown, or J.J. Nelson. If you’re a betting man, Fitzgerald is the one to play as a WR2, though Nelson may be the play in DFS after his massive letdown in Week 3. Outside of Fitzgerald, they all come with risk in a game where they shouldn’t need to throw the ball more than 25-30 times.

TEs: Through three games, Garrett Celek is the 49ers tight end with the most production in standard leagues, but he isn’t the one you’d play if forced. Rookie George Kittle has played more than double the snaps of Celek and has seen eight more targets than him. In this matchup, he may see more targets than usual with Garcon being draped by Peterson. The issue is that the Cardinals are the best in the league at defending tight ends, so just sit back and avoid this game. Can we just pretend that Jermaine Gresham didn’t play last week so that we cannot consider the Cardinals tight end an avoid? Still, you should avoid even Gresham against the 49ers, as there are multiple other ways to beat this defense. They actually held Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham to a combined three catches for 19 yards over the first two weeks, so it’s not even one that should make you consider Gresham.