Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Total: 43.5
Line: TEN by 1.5

It’s really odd to see the Titans continually put up points (28.7 per game), but have Marcus Mariota throw just three touchdowns in those three games. It just goes to show how good they can be when they get all their wide receivers on the field together and in sync. After looking like they were an embarrassment on Thursday night football, the Texans showed up to play against the Patriots. The Titans did lose their home opener and will be returning home to Houston trying to redeem themselves.  Outside of Corey Davis, the Titans are relatively healthy for this game. Meanwhile, the Texans secondary suffered while missing Kevin Johnson last week. He’s still out of the lineup this week, meaning the Texans will have to start Eddie Pleasant and Johnathan Banks in his place once again. The line on this game suggests it will be a closer game than some may have thought just one week ago.

QBs: As mentioned above, Marcus Mariota has thrown just three touchdowns the first three weeks, but has somehow managed to still be a top-10 fantasy option. That’s because they haven’t dialed back his rushing attempts, despite his broken leg from a season ago. Mariota’s 77 rushing yards are sixth at the position. He’ll need to move a bit in this contest, as the Texans have a heck of a pass rush. The Texans have done a great job of limiting their opponents pass attempts over the last year and a half with just 33 attempts per game in 2016 and just 30.3 attempts this year. Given his rushing totals, Mariota can be safely played as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 despite the tough matchup. Deshaun Watson bounced back from a fantasy perspective in Week 3 against a Patriots team that can’t seem to stop anyone right now, but it there were some rookie mistakes in that game as well. He stopped targeting DeAndre Hopkins on every play, which helps, but he needs to go back to that well in this game. The Titans are an incredibly good run defense, but struggle in the secondary. They have now allowed seven passing scores through three games, and allowed Blake Bortles and Russell Wilson to combine for 55 rushing yards over the last two weeks. Watson offers QB2 floor in nearly every matchup because of his legs and considering the lack of pass rush that the Titans are generating, he may reach QB1 numbers this week.

RBs: This is typically where the Titans bread and butter is, though the Texans have gotten better against the run every single week. After allowing 142 yards and a touchdown to Leonard Fournette in Week 1, they’ve held the Bengals and Patriots backfields to just 116 yards on 39 carries (2.97 YPC) over the last two weeks with no touchdowns. DeMarco Murray looked healthy on his 75-yard touchdown run last week, so maybe his hamstring isn’t really bothering him after all? It’s difficult to trust him as an every-week RB1 with Derrick Henry marching right alongside of him, because if he struggles, Henry will have no issue stepping in. Take this as a sign if you own Murray – trade him away if you can get great value. Consider him a middling RB2 in this matchup against the Texans, while Henry is just a risky flex play. It hasn’t happened yet, but the Texans are slowly moving more and more towards a timeshare between Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman. On top of that, Alfred Blue is likely to return to game action this week. Miller may be a more efficient running back in a timeshare, but it’s far from ideal for his week-to-week safety. He’s now failed to top 65 yards rushing in six of his last seven games despite averaging 17.8 carries in those games. Considering he’s matched up with a top-six run defense this week that has allowed just six rushing touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, Miller is just a low-end RB2/flex option this week. Foreman has seen his snap count rise, but considering he’s on the short end of the timeshare, it’s impossible to play him in what is a tough matchup.

WRs: It’s been a rough start to the season for Eric Decker who has seen 18 targets, but has turned them into just 10 catches for 91 yards. You want to bet on him to bounce back, as he is someone who scored in 12 of 16 games the last time he played a full season, so maybe it’s just a chemistry thing with Mariota. He’ll match-up with Kareem Jackson, who is a veteran, but one who lacks height (5-10) to defend someone like Decker if he were to box-out in the end zone. It’s difficult to trust Decker in season-long, but he could be worth a look in DFS. Meanwhile, Rishard Matthews has easily been the team’s highest-scoring wide receiver after three weeks. Matthews will see a lot of veteran Johnathan Joseph in coverage, who is dealing with a shoulder injury, but has been solid in coverage. Matthews should have a better week if Corey Davis is out, and it seems like that will be the case once again. If they do allow Davis play this week, he will see the most of Eddie Pleasant, an undrafted free agent from back in 2012. If he plays, consider him a risk/reward WR3, though it was concerning they ruled him out so early in the week before their game against the Seahawks. I want to be honest – this is one trio of wide receivers that I don’t have a clear handle on, simply because all of the new pieces, moving parts, and injuries. This is a week where you should pound DeAndre Hopkins into lineups. He should return to his heavily-targeted role after the Patriots rolled coverage his way in Week 3, limiting his opportunities. The Titans have some real issues in their secondary and have already allowed a combined six touchdowns to wide receivers and tight ends. With Watson looking better in Week 3, it gives Hopkins owners hope that he can get back to WR1 status, though I see him as more of a WR2 a majority of the time. This week, expect him to be more of a WR1 against the combination of Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims. Despite the fact that Bruce Ellington totaled 59 yards and a touchdown, you don’t want to consider him in fantasy leagues. It seems like Will Fuller may potentially return this week, and if he does, the matchup doesn’t get much better, but you don’t want to play a wide receiver coming off a multi-week absence. Give him a week to get acclimated and see where his snap count is.

TEs: Delanie Walker has now lost two touchdowns to rookie Jonnu Smith, though he’s out-targeted him 19 to 6. While it’s frustrating, there aren’t five other tight ends you’d rather have in fantasy football. The Texans have been a really good team against tight ends, though it didn’t really look like it against Rob Gronkowski last week, who posted 89 yards and a touchdown. Obviously, he’s on another level, so approach this game as a tough one for Walker. Still, it’s hard to find another eight tight ends who you’d rather play, so he’s still a TE1. Ryan Griffin has taken the lead now that C.J. Fiedorowicz has gone to I.R. and played a team-high 61 snaps at the tight end position in Week 3. The Titans have enough concerns in the secondary, their linebackers are often dropped back into coverage, but is Griffin enough of a concern to force them to bring a safety down to cover him? Doubtful. Because of that, Griffin is most definitely on the TE2 radar going forward. With the way Bill O’Brien features tight ends in his offense, he could legitimately become someone worth rostering in fantasy leagues.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Total: 44.5
Line: PIT by 2.5

This is really interesting, as the Ravens and Steelers always play in close games and are always playoff contenders, but they’re both coming off embarrassing losses. The wildcard in this game is that the Ravens are coming back from a game in London. Opposite of the Jaguars, the Ravens are one of the oldest teams in the league (8th oldest) and they may not bounce back as well as the younger crowd. Meanwhile, the Steelers, as we know, are not nearly the offense on the road as they are at home. In their games over the last two years in Baltimore, the Ravens have won 14-13 and 20-17 in those two meetings. With the line set where it is, it appears Vegas expects the Steelers to overcome their road struggles and beat the Ravens.

QBs: It hasn’t been the worst start to the season for Ben Roethlisberger on the road, as he posted 263 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns and then 235 yards and one touchdown against the Bears. Had the first ball he threw to Martavis Bryant connected (bounced off his finger tips, would have been a 75-yard touchdown), his stat line would have looked a lot better. The Ravens held him to 264 yards and one touchdown in their 2016 Baltimore meeting, and just 220 yards with no touchdowns in the 2015 game. He’s difficult to trust, though the Ravens traveling literally from a different country will have an effect on them. He’s a high-risk/high-reward QB2 in Week 4. As for Joe Flacco, it’s extremely odd. The Ravens offense has led the NFL in pass attempts over the last two years, but he’s now thrown just 69 passes through three games. There were zero games in 2015 and 2016 where he threw the ball less than 30 times. The offensive philosophy has changed, but it hasn’t produced results. The loss of Marshal Yanda proved to be large last week, as the run game struggled, as did Flacco, throwing for just 1.6 yards per attempt. The Steelers should get T.J. Watt back this week, as well as Stephon Tuitt, which will cause havoc for the Ravens and their injury-riddled offensive line. Flacco needs to be benched until we see that he can play without Yanda covering his behind.

RBs: It was good to see Le’Veon Bell get going last week, even though the Steelers offense as a whole just looked putrid. The Bears was a ‘get-right’ spot for him and while it was a solid fantasy day, we know he’s capable of more. The Ravens allowed him 137 yards and two touchdowns in their Week 16 meeting last year that was win-or-go-home, though that game was in Pittsburgh. Earlier in the year, the Ravens held him to just 70 total yards and no touchdowns. The Steelers offensive line simply hasn’t been creating the separation that Bell needs to produce elite numbers, but it would help if right tackle Marcus Gilbert could return, as well as left guard Ramon Foster, who left the game against the Bears with a hand injury. Bell is still an RB1, but until they get it right, he won’t be posting his video game numbers. Terrance West played in the London game, but did nothing to reassure us when we put him in lineups when he totaled just six carries and fumbled. He actually played just 10 snaps, the same as backup Alex Collins. You cannot trust West in fantasy lineups right now. Javorius Allen is someone to consider now that West is in the doghouse, as he played a position-high 34 snaps, though the results weren’t ideal in a tough matchup against the Jaguars. Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, and Benny Cunningham combined to catch 12 passes last week for 73 yards against the Steelers, which bodes well for Allen who has seen 13 of the backfield’s 17 targets since Danny Woodhead went down. Consider Allen a solid RB3 in PPR formats, but a tad riskier in standard leagues.

WRs: You’re starting Antonio Brown every week and Jimmy Smith doesn’t change that. He burned the Ravens for 7/85/1 in their first meeting last year, and then 10/96/1 in the second meeting. He’s a WR1 every week, regardless of the opponent. This matchup is also one where I wouldn’t fade him in DFS lineups. Martavis Bryant technically has the better matchup with Brandon Carr, who doesn’t have the wheels to hang with Bryant (not that anyone does). He’s done a fine job in coverage, but is also a 31-year-old whose best years are likely behind him. The touchdown that speedster Allen Hurns scored last week was in his coverage. Start Bryant as an ultra-high upside WR3. It seems like JuJu Smith-Schuster is eating into Eli Rogers‘ snaps sooner than expected and they’re cancelling each other’s ceiling. The slot is a good place to be against the Ravens, but it’s hard to trust either of them in season-long. If you’d like to take a shot in DFS, Smith-Schuster would be the best bet. It was good to see Jeremy Maclin clear the concussion protocol last week and get back in the game because it allows him to practice throughout the week. With the way the run game is struggling, it wouldn’t shock me if Flacco drops back to pass 35-plus times this week. Because of that, Maclin should be played as a WR3 in season-long leagues and is the only wide receiver you can semi-trust on this offense. The duo of Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman have combined for 18 targets, but have just… wait for it… four catches for 26 yards to show for it. There is the whole narrative of Wallace against his old team, but it’s not enough to make me play him in season-long leagues.

TEs: As it turns out, Jesse James hasn’t been a fantasy asset. Who would’ve thought? He actually suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3 and may not be available to play against the Ravens. If that’s the case, Vance McDonald would step in to the TE1 role for the Steelers to play against a Ravens defense that just allowed three touchdowns to the dinosaur, Marcedes Lewis. On 13 targets to the tight end position in 2017, the Ravens have allowed 11 receptions for 130 yards and four touchdowns. If James missed this game, McDonald is a high-end TE2 with upside for DFS. Some will cite Ben Watson‘s strong performances in back-to-back weeks, but I’d urge you to consider that he didn’t do anything until the final possession with Ryan Mallett in the game. Watson has just four targets in the two games that weren’t against the Browns, so cool your jets on calling him a starter. The lack of places for targets to go in this offense forces you to at least consider him, though, especially when we project Flacco to throw this much. You should also know that he’s blocking on nearly 60 percent of his snaps, while Nick Boyle is also seeing similar playing time. It’ll be touchdown-or-bust most weeks. Watson is just a low-end TE2 who’ll likely be asked to block a lot more with the offensive line struggling the way they have.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Total: 40.0
Line: CIN by 3.0

Now that the Bengals are 0-3, this has to be considered a must-win, right? I mean, I’m not sure of the odds, but I can’t imagine there have been many teams who’ve made the playoffs after starting 0-3, let alone 0-4. The Browns were finally a favorite last week, but then went on to allow Jacoby Brissett and the Colts to post 31 points against them. It doesn’t appear that they’ll get Myles Garrett back by this game, so their pass-rush will continue to suffer, which is going to hurt them bad against the Bengals. The reason Dalton has struggled is because they were going against stiff pass-rushers and their offensive line is not skilled enough to handle that. The implied team total is just 21.5, which is mildly concerning, but that may go up as the week goes on. It should also be noted that the Bengals defense now gets Vontaze Burfict back on the field this week, which should boast their overall defense quite a bit.

QBs: If you were able to see the Bengals offense last week, you know they looked a lot better, but there were still a lot of things to clean up. Andy Dalton is still anticipating pressure even when it’s not there, something that needs to end. He also showed some willingness to throw the ball to A.J. Green despite tough coverage and that worked out well for him. They still need a confidence-building win and though this game is on the road, it may be the perfect place to start. The Browns have now allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 23 of their last 29 games. They’ve totaled just six sacks through three games, which is the biggest stat needed. Without Garrett, they just aren’t generating a pass-rush, and it also hurt that linebacker Jamie Collins also missed last week. Dalton should be played as a safe high-end QB2 with upside for more. DeShone Kizer saved his fantasy day in the second half in what was garbage time. He looks like a rookie quarterback out there and one that likely shouldn’t be. He’s got some skills, but there are a lot of little mistakes in his approach that could use honing. The Bengals are not the defense where that will happen, as they have held 14 of the last 19 quarterbacks they’ve played to either zero or one passing touchdown. Kizer is still on the QB2 radar due to his legs, but don’t get excited about it.

RBs: It’s happening, guys and gals. Joe Mixon was the feature back in the first game under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, as he played 34 snaps compared to just 27 for Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. He also totaled 21 touches, which was obviously a season-high for anyone on the Bengals. This game should present another extended look at Mixon, as the last two teams to play against the Browns (Ravens and Colts) have racked up 60 combined carries. Mixon is a strong RB2 and I suspect he’ll score his first touchdown this week. Bernard is trending into the RB4/5 in PPR leagues, while Hill is just waiver wire material. It’s been an ominous start to the season for those who supported Isaiah Crowell in 2017. After a few tough matchups, Crowell had what was arguably his best matchup on the schedule against the Colts in Week 3 and totaled just 44 yards on 12 carries. The argument can be made that Duke Johnson deserves more touches than him going forward, as he’s been electric with the ball in his hands, totaling 204 yards on 17 touches, including a tackle-breaking, highlight-reel touchdown last week. Crowell cannot be trusted as anything more than a low-upside RB3 against the Bengals with Burfict, while Johnson doesn’t need game-script to be in his favor. We’ve had hype built around Johnson before, so he can’t be trusted more than a RB3/RB4 just yet, but the arrow is pointing up. If he gets 15 touches a game, he’ll produce RB2 numbers.

WRs: It was very nice to see A.J. Green get the targets he deserves last week, turning in a performance of 10 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. This week should promote a similar result, as the Browns are coming off a game in which they allowed T.Y. Hilton to go off for 153 yards and a touchdown. Don’t forget that Antonio Brown totaled 182 yards against them in Week 1. If you want to take Green in DFS again, I urge you to do so, because it’s hard to say that there’s another receiver who I’d rather have at his price. Brandon LaFell recorded just five yards on two targets under Lazor, which is more along the lines of where he should be. Tyler Boyd was active once again, but he’s also off fantasy radars. The only other player who can eventually provide value is John Ross, and he’s completely off fantasy radars right now. It helps all of them that we know Tyler Eifert is out for the foreseeable future, as the targets have to go somewhere, but this is a game where it’s hard to see Dalton throw the ball more than 30 times. Just one week after seeing 11 targets, Rashard Higgins went back to being the guy who was on a practice squad two weeks ago, hauling in just two passes for 11 yards against the Colts. Don’t give up on him just yet, though, as he’ll have the best matchup on the field in Week 3 against the Bengals Darqueze Dennard, who was bench material in 2016. Higgins doesn’t come without risk, but he’s looking like a WR4 in this matchup. Kenny Britt saw a team-high 10 targets, and though he caught just three of them, one was a touchdown. He will match-up with a mixture of Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones on 90 percent of his routes, so avoid him wherever possible.

TEs: If you own Tyler Eifert, embrace for the worst, as he announced earlier this week that he’s going to miss some time with his back issue. In his absence, Tyler Kroft played 60 snaps and running as the clear starter. He saw four targets and hauled in three of them for 28 yards in his first game, which was more than LaFell and Boyd combined. He’s most definitely on the streaming radar against the Browns, who have already allowed 191 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends, and that’s despite Jack Doyle‘s bust last week. If we dug into last year, the Browns allowed quarterbacks a 130.5 rating when targeting their tight ends, which was by far the worst in the league. He’s a sneaky tournament play this week and I’d even consider streaming him in season-long leagues. It’s now been two weeks in a row where athletic-freak David Njoku has scored a touchdown, but he’s still second-fiddle when it comes to snaps played among tight ends to Seth DeValve. In fact, Njoku is also being kept in to block more often that DeValve as well, so that production won’t continue the way it has. The Bengals are a solid matchup for tight ends, but it’s hard to play DeValve when his snaps haven’t turned into fantasy production. They are both just fliers until one of them has a significant snap advantage. There have been three red zone opportunities and Njoku has gotten two of those targets, while DeValve has gotten the other one.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Total: N/A
Line: N/A

With all of the question marks surrounding Sam Bradford, the oddsmakers are not releasing a line on this game until there is more clarity. As of this time, I’d assume the Vikings let him rest up after Case Keenum looked at least competent against the Bucs last week. The Lions almost won their game against the Falcons last week, but they really had no business winning that game, as they couldn’t stop the Falcons offense all day. Matt Ryan almost gave the game away, but don’t get it twisted, the Lions weren’t great last weekend. It’ll be another tough test for them on the road in Minnesota against a Vikings defense that has been kind of a bend-but-don’t-break defense to this point.

QBs: Matthew Stafford has cooled off a bit after that 292-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Cardinals in Week 1, but has still remained in the QB1 conversation. They are still trying to figure out the best pass to run ratio in the offense, which is why we’ve seen the extreme of 45 pass attempts, to the low of 21 pass attempts. If they want to attack the Vikings where they struggle the most, it’s over the middle of the field with tight ends or over the top with deep threats. The issue is that the pass-blocking hasn’t been giving him much time and his perimeter wide receivers aren’t getting much separation. Look for him to feed Eric Ebron and Golden Tate, en route to a middling QB2-type game. While Case Keenum looked solid last week, we must remember that the Bucs were fielding a B-squad defense that was without multiple starters. The Lions were without middle linebacker Jarrad Davis last week, but he should be able to return for this game. Each week, the Lions have allowed more yards per attempt and fantasy points to the opposing quarterback, but they have still yet to allow more than 13.7 fantasy points. Keep in mind they played against Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, and Matt Ryan. Keenum isn’t starting in season-long leagues.

RBs: Well you can’t blame Ameer Abdullah‘s struggles on lack of trying, right? The third-year running back has now seen at least 17 touches in every game, but hasn’t been able to break many long runs. The addition of Greg Robinson has proved to do exactly what we thought it would – nothing. He is a turnstile at left tackle and the rest of the line simply isn’t good enough to create space. Still, it’s tough to find a running back who sees this much work every week, so keep trotting him out there in fantasy lineups. The Vikings aren’t a game to get excited about him, either, as they’ve allowed just 171 rushing yards on 56 carries through three games and just another 87 yards receiving. He’s just an RB3 in this matchup who’ll have better days. While in a full-time role last year, Theo Riddick was only able to post 134 total yards on 29 touches against the Vikings in two games combined. He’s just a desperation play in PPR leagues and belongs on benches in standard leagues. Dalvin Cook has been the workhorse of this offense to this point, racking up 71 of the 96 touches for Vikings running backs. He also got a goal-line carry last week and scored his first touchdown. There are concerns about his potential with Keenum under center, but you’re going to play a running back who is at home with a strong defense behind him. The Lions aren’t the best matchup for running backs, however, as they’ve only allowed one running back to top 86 yards rushing against them in their last 15 games and that was Devonta Freeman with Davis out last week. With how active he was in the passing game with Keenum last week, Cook still finds his way into the low-end RB1 conversation.

WRs: If you were to peek at the NFL’s NextGenStats through three weeks, you’d see Marvin Jones as the wide receiver with the least amount of separation when targeted, meaning he’s getting 50/50’s or jump balls essentially all the time. It’s the reason his only production has come from touchdowns. That’ll be tough to do in Week 4 against the Vikings, who field some of the better cornerbacks in the league, and Jones will see a lot of Xavier Rhodes, who has shut down Antonio Brown and Mike Evans the last two weeks. Don’t play Jones this week if you can help it. On the other hand, Golden Tate is a fine play as a WR2 who’ll match-up with 39-year-old Terence Newman in the slot. Newman has been solid over the last couple years, but he’s showing signs of fatigue, already allowing two touchdowns in his coverage this year on just 16 targets. As you’ve seen, Kenny Golladay is someone who’ll contribute when the Lions are in a high-scoring game where Jones and Tate have tougher matchups. They play in three-wide sets almost as much as any team in the league, but if he’s not getting the targets, you can’t trust him. He’s waiver wire material. Stefon Diggs bounced back in a big way after Week 2’s letdown. Am I here to tell you that Diggs is a WR1 despite who is at quarterback? No, I’m not. The Bucs didn’t have their No. 1 cornerback last week and it showed. The Lions will use Darius Slay in coverage this week, and while he isn’t a lockdown cornerback by any means, he is above average. With Keenum under center this week, Diggs is a WR2 who might not live up to your expectations. Adam Thielen also got going last week with Keenum, so he can be re-inserted confidently as a WR3 into lineups, as he will have a better draw in coverage than Diggs. Laquon Treadwell isn’t a fantasy option at this point in time.

TEs: Most don’t know it, but there was just one game last year in which Eric Ebron scored fewer than 8.0 PPR points, which was the best in the league among tight ends, of those who played at least half the season. He’s already failed to score even 3.0 PPR points in two of the three games. While he may not be as big of a part of their plans this year, he’s going to bounce back. It’s the matchup you’d want this weekend as well, as the Vikings have already allowed two touchdowns to opposing tight ends. In fact, tight ends have been targeted just 17 times, but have turned those targets into 15 catches for 131 yards and two touchdowns. Ebron is on the TE1 radar this week. Just one year after leading all tight ends in targets, it seems as if Kyle Rudolph went back to the way he was being used pre-2016, which was not TE1 territory. He’s seen just 11 targets this season, which ranks 20th among tight ends. He’s produced when targeted and the Lions have a soft spot against tight ends, so get him back into lineups and expect results. The Lions have allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends in their last 19 games, including one of them to Rudolph when they played last year.