Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 48.0
Line: PHI by 3.5
QBs
Carson Wentz: We haven’t seen the loss of left tackle Jason Peters affect Wentz yet, but after seeing what the loss of your left tackle can do to someone like Dak Prescott last week, you need to understand the risk. Now the Cowboys aren’t the scariest of opponents, though, as they are not great to begin with and will be without linebacker Sean Lee this week. Knowing they’ve allowed at least two passing touchdowns in 6-of-9 games helps you feel comfortable, though it’s worth noting that two of the quarterbacks that didn’t were NFC East divisional opponents. The games are often closer than most think, but these are two teams that are headed in completely different directions. Wentz is a must-start QB1.
Dak Prescott: We didn’t get word until Sunday morning that left tackle Tyron Smith would be out for the Cowboys, which was a massive blow to a team that was already without Ezekiel Elliott. Did I add that Dez Bryant was likely playing at less than 100 percent? As of this moment, we don’t know if Smith will play Sunday night, which is concerning for those relying on Prescott. The Eagles boast one of the better front-sevens in football, though their secondary leaves a lot to be desired. They have allowed at least one passing touchdown in every game this year and have allowed five quarterbacks to rush for at least 18 yards, including 71 to Cam Newton a few weeks ago. Expect Prescott to step up this week and turn in a solid QB1 performance as 6-of-9 quarterbacks have done against the Eagles.
RBs
Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount: It’s hard to take much from the Week 9 game they had against the Broncos, because it was basically garbage time the entire second half. We don’t know exactly how they’ll split the carries, but why trade for Ajayi if you aren’t going to use him in a large capacity? Knowing that Ajayi offers more through the passing game, he’s likely to play more snaps. Also, he’s more talented. With Sean Lee out for Dallas, this turns into a situation where you’ll want to play Ajayi as a low-end RB1. If we had more of a sample on how they planned on using him, I’d go as far as saying he’s cash-game viable, but we don’t, so he’s just a tournament play. Blount is nothing more than a handcuff at this point, as he relied on volume to produce, and I just don’t think that volume exists anymore.
Alfred Morris and Rod Smith: Did you know that Smith led this backfield in snaps last week? He played 39 snaps, while Morris played 21, and Darren McFadden played one. This is likely to be Smith’s backfield before long. The Cowboys haven’t been one to go through a timeshare and Morris has bricks for hands. The matchup this week against the Eagles may force the Cowboys hand, too, as the Eagles have allowed just one running back to top 38 rushing yards this season and that was Kareem Hunt who required a 53-yard run to get there. Call it game-script, call it whatever you want, but the fact that the Eagles have allowed just 383 rushing yards on the season is ridonkulous. There isn’t another team in the league who has allowed less than 649 rushing yards. They have allowed a healthy amount of receiving yards, though, as nine different running backs have totaled 22 or more receiving yards. Morris is just an RB3 this week who will need to score to hit value, while Smith can be played as a flex, especially in PPR formats.
WRs
Alshon Jeffery: While I’ve been hard on Jeffery, he played a phenomenal game against the Broncos before the bye week, hauling in six passes for 84 yards and two touchdowns against a defense that hadn’t allowed a top-10 receiver on the year. The Cowboys young cornerback group has played better than expected, though they are beatable, and Jeffery will get Jourdan Lewis the majority of time. He’s their third-round rookie pick from this year and is just 5-foot-10, so he could have issues with Jeffery who is five inches taller and high-points balls very well. He’s averaged 8.8 targets per game over the last four weeks, making him a borderline WR1 in matchups that are above average. Knowing Ertz may not be 100 percent, Jeffery is a solid play.
Nelson Agholor: Some of the hype has died down with Agholor now that he’s totaled 58 yards or less in seven of his last eight games, including four games with less than 40 yards. He’s playing the same amount of snaps, but hasn’t seen more than five targets in seven of the last eight games. Matching up with Orlando Scandrick isn’t an easy matchup by any means, though he’s been inconsistent at times throughout his career, similar to Agholor. With Lee out over the middle and knowing that the Cowboys run a decent amount of zone defense, it’s possible they have some miscommunications over the middle of the field, making Agholor a decent WR4 with some upside.
Dez Bryant: Call me one of the people who was skeptical of Bryant playing a normal compliment of snaps last week, but after seeing him play 83 percent of the snaps, you can feel comfortable playing him as you normally would in this game. The Eagles are getting Ron Darby back this week, their top addition to the secondary this offseason who has been out since Week 1 when he broke his ankle. Knowing he’s coming off a long absence, there is no worry about him limiting Bryant’s production. And understanding that the Eagles limit run games, the Cowboys will be forced to move the ball through the air. It’s also the reason the Eagles have allowed six top-10 performances this year. Bryant is in the WR1 group this week.
Terrance Williams: Against the Eagles, teams are averaging 40.3 pass attempts per game which is easily the most in the league (closest is TEN at 37.8). A lot of that has gone to wide receivers, as they have combined for 207 targets, the second-highest total in the league. Because of that, Williams may see a solid number of targets. I’d feel okay slotting him into lineups as a WR4.
Cole Beasley: It seems redundant, but Beasley has still yet to total more than 33 yards on the season. I know he’s scored multiple touchdowns in two different games, but as you know, touchdowns are impossible to predict. Patrick Robinson has played well covering the slot for the Eagles, as quarterbacks have just a 69.6 QB Rating when targeting him in coverage. Beasley is just a WR4 even if he scores a touchdown, so he’s not startable in fantasy.
TEs
Zach Ertz: After missing their Week 9 game, Ertz appears good to go for this week against the Cowboys who have been destroyed over the last two weeks by both Travis Kelce and Austin Hooper. They had done well throughout the year, but as friend Matt Freedman told me before Kelce’s Week 9 performance, their competition was very bad. Ertz has been the most consistent tight end in football, so there’s no reason to doubt him in this game. He’s right up there with Kelce and Gronk this week, though I’d play those two over him in DFS.
Jason Witten: With Tyron Smith out, you would’ve thought that Witten would’ve stayed in to block a bit more, but instead, he ran 43 pass routes, his second highest total this season. It turned into seven targets, seven receptions, and 59 yards against the Falcons. That may have had to do with both Bryant and Williams dinged up, as well as Elliott being suspended. Knowing those things is important, though just one game isn’t a big enough sample size to know it’s a thing. The Eagles have allowed just two top-10 performances this year and they were to Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce, two of the better athletes (and more like wide receivers) at the position. Witten is just a middling TE2 for this week.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks
Total: 45.0
Line: SEA by 3.0
QBs
Matt Ryan: It’s now been three weeks straight where Ryan has thrown two touchdown passes, which we kind of knew was going to happen at some point. Knowing that Devonta Freeman is likely to miss this game, we could see more of the same in Week 11. It helps his projection knowing that Richard Sherman is out for the year and that Earl Thomas may be playing at less than 100 percent. With the injuries starting to pile up, the Seahawks defense may be running out of options to cover Julio Jones. Still, there has been just two quarterbacks to finish with more than one touchdown against them, so it’s hard to absolutely love Ryan as anything more than a low-end QB1/high-end QB2. We’ve just not seen this defense without Sherman, so it’s hard to know what to expect.
Russell Wilson: He’s been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks for consistency’s sake, as he’s scored at least 15.3 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games, including at least 19.4 points in each of the last four weeks. It helps that they have no run game, as his pass attempts are easy to project. The Falcons haven’t allowed a “massive” game to a quarterback yet, but have allowed four QB1 performances. There hasn’t been a quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns against them and Aaron Rodgers was the only quarterback to throw for more than 264 yards. With the pass-rush they bring, it’s hard to see Wilson having much time. Because of that, Wilson is a QB1, though his upside may be capped against a Falcons team that has been kind of the “bend-but-don’t break” defense.
RBs
Tevin Coleman: As of this moment, it appears highly unlikely that Devonta Freeman plays in this game, making Coleman an attractive workhorse. The odd part is that when I went to look at his splits over his career in games with more than 12 carries, his numbers oddly went down. The reason is because in the six games he’s totaled more than 12 carries, he’s scored just one touchdown in those games. The Seahawks struggled against the run for a few games earlier in the season, but seemed to have righted the ship, allowing just 317 yards on 121 carries (2.62 YPC) since the start of Week 4. They have allowed five rushing touchdowns in that timeframe, so it’s not all bad. The Falcons are likely to involve Terron Ward a bit, as he had nine carries in Week 10 once Freeman went down, but he’s not someone I’d consider in fantasy leagues. Coleman should be considered a high-end RB2 this week.
Thomas Rawls and J.D. McKissic: All year long we’ve avoided the Seahawks backfield, so there’s no reason not to now, right? I mean, it helps that Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise are now on IR, but it doesn’t help that we don’t know if Eddie Lacy will be active for this game, which is taking place on Monday night. Adding in another layer of risk, that’s exactly what we need, right? The Falcons have allowed five RB1 performances this year and all but one of them caught at least five passes for 28 yards. Rawls hasn’t caught more than two passes in any one game this year. Knowing the Falcons have allowed just three touchdowns on the year isn’t good for his prospects of a goal-line plunge, either, but if Lacy is out, he’s likely locked in for 15 touches, making him an RB3. Again, just know there’s risk associated with him in multiple ways. McKissic now has a clear role going forward now that Prosise is out for the year, and it’s a semi-valuable one this week, as the Falcons have allowed 439 yards (10th-most) and three touchdowns (4th-most) through the air to running backs. Because of that, he’s in the RB4 conversation, especially in PPR formats.
WRs
Julio Jones: It’s been a down year for Jones, who is averaging 79.4 yards per game, which would rank sixth on the all-time list among wide receivers. Not bad. Him scoring one touchdown is a problem, though. It’s starting to feel like Jones may be stuck in the Andre Johnson category, though Jones has already had a season with 10 touchdowns, so it’s not like he isn’t capable. The Seahawks are going to be a different defense without Richard Sherman, so what better way for them to get acclimated than play against the game’s best receiver? Even with Sherman, they had allowed five top-12 performances, including a 224-yard, one-touchdown game to DeAndre Hopkins. Jones needs to be in lineups as a WR1. Duh.
Mohamed Sanu: It’s been a few down weeks for Sanu, as he’s totaled just 52 yards in the last two games combined, though he did score in their Week 9 contest. The reason we’ve seen him struggle is due to the emergence of Austin Hooper over the middle of the field. The Seahawks have been a team to struggle with tight ends as well, so we may see this trend continue, though they have also allowed some big games to slot receivers like Larry Fitzgerald and Randall Cobb. With Hooper trending up in targets, Sanu is just a WR4 in fantasy leagues, though one of the better ones.
Taylor Gabriel: We liked Gabriel as a potential sleeper last week, and though he posted his second highest yardage total of the season (73), it wasn’t what we had hoped. He’s now failed to see five targets since Week 6 and that’s unlikely to change with Sanu healthy and Hooper seeing more targets as the weeks go on. He’s just a big-play hopeful WR5.
Doug Baldwin: After playing well in a fill-in role last year, Falcons slot cornerback Brian Poole hasn’t been very good this year. On 51 targets in coverage, he’s allowed 42 receptions for 407 yards, though he hasn’t allowed a touchdown… yet. That’s nearly an 83 percent catch rate against Baldwin, who typically has an abnormally high catch rate anyway. Knowing how well Wilson is throwing the ball, we have to assume Baldwin’s touchdown total will increase from three, as he had 21 touchdowns in the last two seasons combined. He’s now totaled at least 92 yards in three of the last four games, making him a steady WR1 once again.
Paul Richardson: Yes, Richardson has relied on touchdowns as a large part of his production, but that’s also part of his game. When Wilson is in trouble, he’s comfortable throwing the ball up to Richardson, who has five touchdowns on the season. He seems to always make highlight-reel catches no matter where he is on the field. The Falcons duo of Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford haven’t been what I’d call “giving” this year, as the secondary as a whole has allowed just seven wide receiver touchdowns through nine games. Knowing that Richardson leads the wide receivers in red zone targets (8), you can never take him off the WR4 radar, which is where I’d put him this week.
Tyler Lockett: Prior to the season, I recall having conversations about Lockett and whether or not he could be a post-hype sleeper. My concern was that his ankle injury he suffered at the end of 2016 was the type that can change a player who relied so much on speed and agility. Seeing his yards per target and yards per reception down despite how well Wilson is playing, it worries me that those fears may be true. Over his last five games, there has been just one game where he posted more than 29 yards and it came against Houston, a team that everyone is beating like a drum. Lockett is waiver wire material at this point.
TEs
Austin Hooper: He’s now seen at least six targets in five of the last six games, so this is no fluke. His two touchdowns in the last three weeks (should be three) are more than Julio Jones has scored on the entire season. He’s not pumping out yardage, but he’s been steady, ranging from 36-50 yards in the games he sees six or more targets. The Seahawks have allowed four tight ends to total 60 or more yards against them and have so many new parts with the Sherman injury, it’s likely that there’ll be some miscommunication. I’m not ready to say he’s a must-play every week, but Hooper is right there at the tail-end of the TE1 conversation.
Jimmy Graham: Not only are the targets there for Graham, but he’s making them count. He’s caught six touchdowns in the last five games, taking full advantage of Wilson’s recent hot streak. He’s totaled 39 yards or less in three of the last five games, but the touchdowns are more than making up for that. The Falcons have only allowed one tight end touchdown all season and it came to the Jets backup tight end Eric Tomlinson. They’ve also allowed fewer than 50 yards per game to opposing tight ends, putting Graham in a tier well below Kelce, Gronkowski, and Ertz this week.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 44.0
Line: PIT by 7.0
QBs
Marcus Mariota: The line on this game looks worrisome, but from what we’ve seen from this Steelers defense their last two games, there isn’t much to be worried about for Mariota. The combination of Matthew Stafford and Jacoby Brissett completed 41-of-69 passes for 645 yards (9.3 YPA) with two touchdowns. The Steelers also lost cornerback Joe Haden in their close win over the Colts, making their secondary a bit thinner than it was two weeks ago. With the way the Steelers offense scores points at home, there should be great game-script for Mariota and the Titans passing game in this one. The Steelers have been getting after the quarterback, but with Mariota’s elusiveness, I’d consider him a low-end QB1 in this game.
Ben Roethlisberger: Another game on the road, another weak performance for Roethlisberger. We’ve been through this before. We can’t explain it, but when you’re looking at a four-year sample, it’s real. But you don’t have to worry about that this week, as Roethlisberger and the Steelers will be at home against one of the worst secondaries in all of football, the one I recommended you play Andy Dalton in cash against last week (and panned out). There have been just three quarterbacks who didn’t finish as a top-15 quarterback against the Titans and they were: Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles, and DeShone Kizer. The Titans sack the quarterback on just 3.68 percent of their dropbacks, the worst in the NFL, while the Steelers have allowed Roethlisberger to be sacked on just 3.46 percent of his dropbacks, fourth-best in the NFL. He’s going to have plenty of time to sling it around this week and is a top-six play at the quarterback position.
RBs
DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry: I’m not buying the whole “Murray is rejuvenated after the bye” thing. He looked like the same running back he’s been since Week 10 of last season, but he just happened to get the goal-line work and scored three touchdowns. I mean, after all, Mike Gillislee did that in a game this year. He still averaged 3.0 yards per carry in that games and shared the workload with Henry (14 to 11 carries). The Steelers have been extremely hit-or-miss this year against the run and have been good lately, but they’ve also played against Frank Gore, Ameer Abdullah, Joe Mixon, and the struggling Kareem Hunt in the last four weeks. Earlier in the season they allowed 100-yard games to both Jordan Howard and Leonard Fournette, but those are high-volume downhill running backs, not necessarily Murray’s style and workload. This will come down to him scoring and hitting value or him winding up with maybe 60-70 total yards. The Steelers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since back in Week 5, but Murray can be played as an RB2 because he’s the receiver out of the backfield, something they’ll need if they fall behind. Henry is kind of like a Tevin Coleman type, but without the receiving numbers. Because of that, he’s just a touchdown-dependent flex.
Le’Veon Bell: It hasn’t been a great last two games for Bell, as the passing game’s struggles have allowed teams to key in on him. Oddly enough, Bell has averaged 3.8 or less yards per carry in 6-of-9 games this year, relying on volume more than anything. That’s not great against a Titans team that has shut down opposing run games. They’re allowing just 3.45 yards per carry on the season and allowed just their third rushing touchdown last week. This coincides with what they’ve done the last two years, allowing just six rushing touchdowns in each season. They do, however, allow plenty through the air to running backs, allowing nearly six catches and 52 yards per game to them, along with three touchdowns. Bell is an RB1 every single week, though if you want to play him in a tournament, do the unorthodox thing and pair him with Roethlisberger.
WRs
Corey Davis: This is why you snagged him off the waiver wire – Davis is about to have a solid stretch of games and it helps that the Steelers just lost Joe Haden for a few weeks. He’s now seen 25 targets in the three full games he’s played, and the Steelers have now allowed four receivers in the last two weeks to total at least 86 yards. I’m plugging him into lineups as a WR3 with confidence.
Rishard Matthews: In the three full games Davis has played, Matthews has totaled 23 targets, so it’s not like we just cross off his name now that Davis is back in a full-time role. The Steelers play a zone defense that should be able to defend a deep threat like Matthews pretty well, unless there is a miscommunication. That happened twice last week against the Colts, but that’s because they had shaded a safety to T.Y. Hilton‘s side of the field, freeing up Chester Rogers and Donte Moncrief for long touchdowns. Matthews isn’t a bad play by any means, but he’s more of a high-end WR4.
Eric Decker: I can only imagine what Taywan Taylor would have done with 44 targets this season, as the Decker experiment appears to be a failure. He’s totaled 34 yards or less in all but two games and has scored just one touchdown. Mike Hilton has covered the slot for the Steelers this year and done a great job, so there’s no reason to think Decker should surprise.
Antonio Brown: He’s now totaled just 182 yards in his last three games combined, a number that he hit back in Week 1 alone. He’s also scored just three touchdowns on the season after scoring at least 10 in each of the last three seasons. Something is about to give and it’s the Titans secondary. He’s the WR1 this week and it shouldn’t be all that close. The Titans have allowed seven top-12 performances on the season, including both A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell last week. My bold prediction: 100-plus yards and two touchdowns.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Let me start by saying that I was wrong on Smith-Schuster last week. I predicted the Steelers to blow-out the Colts and that he’d only have 4-5 targets in the game. The important note is that he played 53 snaps to Martavis Bryant‘s 37 snaps, a big plus for his consistency going forward. The Titans have Logan Ryan out of the slot, and while he is their best cornerback, he’s not unbeatable. Knowing how much time Roethlisberger should have and that Smith-Schuster has seen 17 targets over the last two games, he has the looks of a solid WR3 this week.
Martavis Bryant: As mentioned in the Smith-Schuster paragraph, Bryant is the No. 3 receiver on this team. That doesn’t mean he’s unusable in fantasy leagues right now, especially in games where we’re projected Roethlisberger to throw three touchdowns. With the lack of pass-rush that the Titans are getting, the Steelers will take some shots down the field. He’s the ultimate high-risk/high-reward WR4.
TEs
Delanie Walker: It seems that Walker is back to normal after dealing with multiple injuries through the middle of the season. He saw nine targets in Week 10, which was his second-highest total of this season, though he’s still yet to find the end zone through the air (he’s scored a rushing touchdown). It’s not likely to come against the Steelers, though, as they’ve allowed just two tight end scores through nine games. They’ve also held all tight ends to 58 yards or less, which included Travis Kelce and Jack Doyle. Walker is still on the TE1 radar, but it’s not a great matchup for him.
Jesse James and Vance McDonald: This isn’t the ideal timeshare to target in fantasy, as they’re both playing a lot of snaps and the amount of pass routes they are running is similar. McDonald is the higher upside play, though he’s run just 15 pass routes in each of his last two games. In those games, James has run 6 and 21 routes. The Titans have only allowed two tight end touchdowns this year, so it may not be worth it to chase one or the other in this game, though it’s tempting with their offensive powerhouse in Heinz Field.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
