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Week 13’s Toughest Start/Sit Decisions: Jonathan Williams, DeVante Parker, Miles Sanders

Week 13’s Toughest Start/Sit Decisions: Jonathan Williams, DeVante Parker, Miles Sanders

Every week fantasy football owners are confronted with difficult lineup questions. Who should you start, and who should you sit? That’s what many are left asking, often with little help. It’s good you landed here, as we can help each week using our Who Should I Start tool. Simply type in several players that you are deciding between per position or for your flex and we will let you know who the experts would start and who they would sit.

Here’s a look at the toughest start and sit decisions of the week along with our expert’s advice.

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Start Nick Foles (QB – JAC) or Carson Wentz (QB – PHI)?
65% of Experts Would Start Foles

Foles
You have to wonder if Doug Marrone starts to consider going back to Gardner Minshew at some point, as Foles hasn’t been the answer to their issues. He’s completed 65-of-95 passes for 568 yards over the last two games with two touchdowns and one interception. If there’s a team he needs to take advantage of on the schedule, it’s this one. The Bucs are the only team in football who has allowed quarterbacks to outscore running backs. The gap is 5.46 points, too, so it’s not small. It’s safe to say the Jags will be leaning on Foles this week. He’s had the volume, which is precisely what quarterbacks have racked up against the Bucs, with the 41.7 attempts per game being the most in the NFL. No other team has seen more than 39.7 per game. Oddly enough, just three quarterbacks have topped 7.60 yards per attempt against them, but the volume speaks volumes, as there’ve been six quarterbacks who’ve totaled at least 314 yards. There’ve been just three quarterbacks who’ve failed to throw multiple touchdowns against them, with two being in divisional matchups where each team knows each other well. Matt Ryan‘s lackluster performance in Week 12 was the first time since way back in Week 2 where a quarterback finished worse than the QB14. Knowing seven of the last nine quarterbacks they’ve played to finish as top-10 options, Foles should offer streamability in this matchup, though his lack of mobility keeps him in the high-end QB2 range.

Wentz
He apparently suffered a bruise on his throwing hand towards the end of that game last week, which may limit his practice this week, but he’s expected to be fine. The question is: Will his receivers be? He was down to Mack Hollins, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and Jordan Matthews last week. Matthews was cut just one day after the game, which indicates they’re expecting someone back. For now, we’ll expect both of them to return. The Dolphins aren’t a team they should have to throw much against, regardless. Opponents have averaged just 31.7 pass attempts per game against them (5th-fewest), though that’s been enough to produce, as they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. They’re the best matchup for a pocket-passer, as they’ve allowed the most fantasy points per pass attempt (not including rushing totals), as well as a league-high 7.45 percent touchdown-rate. The only two quarterbacks who didn’t throw at least two touchdowns against them were Sam Darnold (he actually did, though they overturned one of them) and Brian Hoyer. They’re generating a sack on just 3.9 percent of dropbacks, which is easily the lowest mark in the league. There’s not much to worry about here with Wentz, who should get back into the low-end QB1 territory provided his receivers play.

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Start Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) or Jonathan Williams (RB – IND)?
85% of Experts Would Start Sanders

Sanders
It doesn’t appear Jordan Howard is expected back any time soon, leaving the backfield to Sanders and Ajayi. Sanders ran extremely well, totaling 63 yards on 12 carries and chipping in with three receptions for 23 yards. If there were one game the Eagles could impose their will on the ground, it’s this week against the Dolphins. There have been six running backs who’ve tallied 100-plus yards on the ground, including another seven running backs who’ve amassed 55-plus yards. This is possible due to the league-high 27.7 carries per game they’ve faced. Most teams haven’t had to utilize their running backs in the passing game very much, as the matchups at receiver are great, but the Eagles might need to. When targeted, running backs have averaged 1.96 yards per target against the Dolphins, which is the second-highest mark in the league. Provided Howard is out, Sanders should be locked into lineups as a high-end RB2 with tremendous upside if Pederson lets him run with the job.

Williams
Williams is clearly the lead back in Marlon Mack’s absence, as he carried the ball a massive 26 times in the loss to the Texans, racking up 104 yards and a touchdown. The Titans are coming off a game in which they allowed Leonard Fournette to score twice, but that’s been a rare occasion under Mike Vrabel. Coming into that game, they’d allowed just 12 rushing touchdowns over 26 games under him. Mack had a lot of issues finding room back in their Week 2 meeting when he carried the ball 20 times for just 51 yards, resulting in the RB38 performance on the week. To be fair, Wilkins broke a long run in that game and wound-up with 82 yards on just five carries. Still, there have been just eight running backs who’ve finished better than the RB24 against them this year, which isn’t the greatest thing for Williams’ floor. But we cannot ignore his back-to-back 100-yard games as the lead back in the offense, and it also helps to know he caught three passes in their Week 12 game, which provides us with a stable floor. Mack had just two games all season with three catches. Opponents have averaged 66.8 plays per game against the Titans this year, which should allow for plenty of touches for Williams, who should be considered a low-end RB2 for this game.

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Start Tevin Coleman (RB – SF) or Ronald Jones (RB – TB)?
68% of Experts Would Start Coleman

Coleman
Outside of the one game where Coleman crushed the Panthers, he’s been horrendous and has actually finished with 45 or less rushing yards in five of his last seven games, including each of his last four games. Shanahan has taken notice of his struggles, as he hasn’t topped 12 carries since back in Week 7, though he has received four targets in each of the last four games, which supports a decent floor. It seems like Breida has a good chance to return this week, though nothing is set in stone. The Ravens are a brutal matchup for running backs, and it’s why they’ve averaged a league-low 21.0 touches per game against them. They’ve faced a league-low 190 carries and have allowed a league-low 41 receptions to the position. This should be interesting because the 49ers have averaged 34.8 running back touches per week. If we bring that number down significantly, suddenly no one is looking at more than 10-12 touches. Outside of the Week 4 game against Nick Chubb when they were without Pro Bowl defensive tackle Brandon Williams, the Ravens have allowed just 633 yards on 164 carries (3.86 yards per carry) with five rushing touchdowns in the other 10 games. We also haven’t seen a running back hit 50 receiving yards against them all season. Coleman is nothing more than a middling-to-low-end RB3 in this matchup.

Jones
This is still, unfortunately, a timeshare between the two, though Jones is at the top of it. Since being given the starting role, Jones has received 45 carries and 17 targets while Barber has 26 carries and four targets. That’s over a span of four games. If there’s a week for Arians to give Jones his true “breakout” game, this is it. The Jaguars have been the worst run defense in the league over the last three weeks, allowing a massive 584 yards on 81 carries (7.21 yards per carry) with five rushing touchdowns. During that three-week span, there have been six running backs who’ve finished as a top-24 option. There’s been just two games this year where Jones has totaled more than 14 carries, but here’s to hoping it’s his third. If you don’t trust him in this matchup, you never will. Plug him in as a low-end RB2 with top-10 upside.

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Start Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN) or DeVante Parker (WR – MIA)?
70% of Experts Would Start Sutton

Sutton
Week 12 was just the second time all year where Sutton finished a game with less than 72 yards and/or a touchdown. He saw eight targets from the inaccurate Brandon Allen but was only able to haul in one of them for 27 yards. That’s not a great confidence booster heading into the matchup with the Chargers intense pass defense this week. They have allowed the third-fewest points per game to the wide receiver position and may be getting star safety Derwin James back from injury as well. There have been just five wide receivers all year who’ve finished with 13-plus PPR points against the Chargers, though there is a caveat. There have been just 10 receivers who’ve seen seven-plus targets. There should be a decent floor here for the receiver who’s seen at least seven targets in 10-of-11 games. His ceiling is still limited considering the lack of competence out of Allen, leaving him in high-end WR3 territory.

Parker
Another week has passed, and another week Parker has amassed 55-plus yards. He’s now done that in 9-of-11 games this year, something only Michael Thomas, Courtland Sutton, and Parker can say. He’s now finished as the WR32 or better in each of his last eight games. Again, if you were to remove his name, everyone would be starting him as a low-end WR2 every week. The Eagles looked like a plus on the schedule a month ago, but they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to them over the last four weeks. It helps that they’ve seen just 16.3 wide receiver targets per game, but they’ve allowed just 1.59 PPR points per target in that time, which would rank eighth in the league over the course of the season. Volume hasn’t guaranteed success against them this year, either, as they’ve faced seven-plus targets 14 times, and just eight of them have finished better than the WR40. Jalen Mills is the one he’ll see about 45 percent of the time. He’s a cornerback who’s had lapses in coverage throughout his career, though he’s played solid in the five games he’s been a part of this year, allowing just a 51.6 percent catch-rate, though he did allow his first touchdown last week. It’s a tougher matchup than most realize, but Parker should be played as a middling WR3 with how stable he’s been.

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Start Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) or Sammy Watkins (WR – KC)?
69% of Experts Would Start Watkins

McLaurin
The good news is that he saw a team-high 12 targets versus the Lions despite being mixed up with Darius Slay most of the game. That accounted for 41.4 percent of Haskins’ attempts. It was actually the first time all year McLaurin reached double-digit targets. The Panthers are one of the most zone-heavy teams in the league, which hasn’t been the best thing for McLaurin, as he’s someone who’s been much better versus man coverage. On the year, quarterbacks have an 84.1 QB Rating when targeting him in zone, but a near perfect quarterback rating of 140-plus against man. He’ll see a good mix of James Bradberry and Donte Jackson in coverage, a duo that’s combined to allow just a 59 percent completion-rate, 13.2 yards per reception, and four touchdowns on 104 targets in coverage. The Panthers have allowed 15 receivers to finish as top-36 options, so it’s not all bad, though they can really be beaten in the slot, where McLaurin runs just 23 percent of his routes. Of the 14 wide receivers who finished inside the top-30 against the Panthers, 13 of them had seven-plus targets, so he’s going to need the high volume to continue. Consider him a mid-to-low-end WR3 who comes with some risk.

Watkins
There might not be a more disappointing player in fantasy football this year than Watkins. Because he’s WR39 on the year? No, because he’s WR39 on the year with all the massive volume he’s received. He’d seen at least six targets in every full game he played prior to Week 11 when he saw just three of them. With the way he’s struggled to produce, they should be giving Hardman more looks. He saw 13 targets the last time they played the Raiders, though they net just six catches for 49 scoreless yards while every other Chiefs receiver went off. I still believe he benefits greatly from Hill on the field, as he’s no longer the focal point of the passing attack, therefore he’s not the focal point of the defense. The Raiders have Daryl Worley and Trayvon Mullen covering the perimeter with Nevin Lawson in the slot (as long as Lamarcus Joyner is out). Watkins has run 57 percent of his routes from the slot, so that should be big for him. Lawson is coming off a game where he allowed 4-of-5 passing for 49 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. Even if Joyner comes back, he hasn’t been good in coverage. Watkins has a great matchup, but will he take advantage? Knowing how mediocre he’s been, he should be considered a high-end WR4 who still plays with Mahomes.

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Start Ryan Griffin (TE – NYJ) or Jack Doyle (TE – IND)?
72% of Experts Would Start Griffin

Griffin
Despite having just seven targets over the first four games with 17 scoreless yards, Griffin has turned on the jets and caught 23-of-26 targets for 265 yards and five touchdowns. The issue with expecting his production to keep up is the fact that he’s seen more than four targets just twice all season. The Bengals have allowed a league-high 9.61 yards per target this year, though the issue is that tight ends have been targeted just 5.6 times per game against them. There’s been just three tight ends who’ve seen more than four targets against them this year, and those were guys who continually see large target shares (Mark Andrews twice, Darren Waller). Griffin should be efficient with the targets he gets, but it could be a 2-4 target game that could leave him with a lower floor than most in the high-end TE2 conversation.

Doyle
We learned earlier this week that Eric Ebron would be out the remainder of the season, which would seem to open a door for Doyle. Well, Doyle had already been playing quite a bit. He’s played 60-77 percent of the snaps all year, as he’s more of the in-line tight end while Ebron was used as more of a receiver. Just 46.4 percent of his snaps have been used to run routes. Do they move Doyle into the move tight end role now and slot Mo Alie-Cox in as the in-line tight end? It’d make sense as Alie-Cox has run routes on just 22.0 percent of his snaps. The Titans have allowed eight different tight ends to finish as top-15 options against them this year, though touchdowns are a bit part of that, as five of them required touchdowns to get there. There have been just three tight ends who’ve topped 40 yards against them, and they were Austin Hooper, Travis Kelce, and Hunter Henry. That leaves Doyle in what seems to be a touchdown-dependent spot, though targets should be relatively easy to come by. The Colts are lacking receivers and just lost Ebron who accounted for nearly five targets per game. Doyle should have a 5-6 target floor, making him a playable low-end TE1, though it is a tough matchup.

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