The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 46.5
Line: IND by 7.0

QBs
Will Grier: It’s been announced that Grier will start for the Panthers this week, which brought me back to last offseason when I was watching the film on him. Here are my notes from my player comparison part of his profile (you can read the whole thing here):

It’s tough coming up with a comparison to a player you don’t view as a starter in the NFL right now, but if required to pick one, I’d go with someone like Andy Dalton. They can throw to a target when they have a clean pocket, but all things go south once they’re forced to scramble. Dalton is definitely a capable NFL quarterback, but he probably shouldn’t have been a long-time NFL starter and trusted as a franchise’s build-around piece. Both he and Grier can likely be good enough with a solid offensive coordinator, they can also burn without one. Grier is likely going to be a backup upon entering the league.

Grier has this odd sense that he’s elusive in the pocket and that he’s faster than he is, which got him in plenty of trouble in college and will only elevate in the pros. The Colts have not been able to generate much pressure on quarterbacks, as they rank 23rd in average pressure-rate. They also play a zone-heavy scheme which should allow for some safe throws for Grier, particularly in the scripted portion of the game. You’re not going to use him as a streamer in his first NFL start, though.

Jacoby Brissett: He looked flat-out awful on Monday night football last week, and it’s somewhat of a continuation of his play as of late. After throwing 14 touchdowns over the first six games of the season, he’s thrown just four touchdowns over his last seven games. The only matchup he scored more than 15.1 fantasy points in was against the Bucs, because well, every quarterback does. The Panthers haven’t been a matchup to avoid with quarterbacks, nor have they been one to attack. They’ve allowed a pedestrian 64.6 percent completion-rate, 7.47 yards per attempt, and a 3.73 percent touchdown-rate. No quarterback has been able to finish better than the QB7 against them, and though five quarterbacks have finished top-12, the names on that list (Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson) have played much better than Brissett. They have had a variety of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, which certainly increases the appeal in Brissett, but this is a game they should be able to rely on their running backs to get the job done. Brissett is just a mid-to-low-end QB2 who’s not playing well enough to warrant a stream here.

RBs
Christian McCaffrey: With two games left in the season, McCaffrey needs 186 receiving yards to become the third player to ever record 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving. Will the Panthers inserting Grier under center influence that? Potentially, though if the Panthers want to build some confidence in the young quarterback, why not design some high-percentage throws to McCaffrey? It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Colts zone-heavy scheme has allowed 86-of-102 targets to running backs to be completed, which is a massive 84.3 percent catch-rate. The Colts run defense is still one of the best in the business, as they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to running backs. Over the 30 games under Matt Eberflus, only Derrick Henry was able to rush for 100-plus yards. But it should bring joy to your lineups that they’ve allowed six different running backs to record five-plus receptions against them, including 13 receptions and 73 yards to Jaylen Samuels, and then six receptions for 96 yards and two touchdowns to Austin Ekeler. You’re starting your stud as the elite RB1 he always is, but hopefully the Panthers interim coaches understand the rare territory McCaffrey can get into over the final two games.

Marlon Mack: Let’s just say the Colts physically showed up in New Orleans on Monday night, but they weren’t really there to play a football game. Mack was continually hit behind the line of scrimmage and gained 16 of his 19 yards after contact. That means he averaged 0.27 yards before contact. It was a disaster but if you made it through that mess to Week 16, you have a great matchup on deck. The Panthers have allowed 15 different running backs to finish top-24 against them, with 10 of them finishing as top-12 options. The 5.31 yards per carry they’ve allowed is the most in the NFL, as is the 24 rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed. There’s no other team that’s allowed more than 14 rushing touchdowns this season. Over the last four games, the Panthers have seemingly gotten worse, too. The Saints, Redskins, Falcons, and Seahawks have combined to rush for 667 yards (166.8 per game) with eight touchdowns in that span. If the Colts offensive line can’t get push on this injury-riddled defensive front, I give up. At home as a touchdown favorite, Mack should be locked into lineups as a high-end RB2 who’s been a disappointment, though this matchup seems to cure all.

WRs
D.J. Moore: The move from Kyle Allen to Will Grier may not be ideal for Moore, as it’s unlikely they go to the air 40-plus times like they have five of the last six games with Allen under center. It’s very possible that Grier is a better quarterback than Allen, though with it being his first NFL start, there could be butterflies among other things to affect his passing. Moore’s average depth of target is just 11.2 yards down the field, which should make for some solid, confidence-building throws for the young quarterback. The Colts are a great matchup for a receiver like Moore, as they allow a 70.3 percent catch-rate to wide receivers with their soft zone scheme. They haven’t allowed many big plays in the passing game, but rather aim to keep the ball in front of them and rely on mistakes. The combination of Rock Ya-Sin and Pierre Desir has allowed 69-of-104 passing for 1,062 yards and seven touchdowns in their coverage, so start Moore as a WR2 who should be just fine with Grier under center when you consider the matchup.

Curtis Samuel: If there’s one thing we know about Grier, it’s that he cannot be nearly as bad as Allen when it comes to throwing the deep ball. Allen completed just 11-of-51 passes that went over 20 yards, which was the lowest completion-rate in the league on such throws. Because of that, they started designing end-arounds to get the ball in Samuel’s hands. He’s totaled 11 carries over the last four games, which does add to his fantasy floor. The Colts aren’t a team that’s prone to allowing the big play, though their perimeter cornerbacks have been less-than-stellar. Grier is someone who was able to nail the deep-ball if he hits his drop and throws in sync, though he’s not a great improviser. The move to Grier shouldn’t worry you about Samuel’s efficiency, though it may shake up target distribution. Consider him a high-variance WR4 but one who comes with some upside. *Update* Samuel popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a knee injury and then didn’t practice on Friday. This is usually a bad sign for his availability, so have alternatives available.

T.Y. Hilton: He made it out of the game healthy, so there’s that? I’m simply trying to find the silver lining for his owners with the hope they didn’t play him considering he was highly-questionable when the Sunday games started. If you have him available to you in the championship game, the matchup with the Panthers can best be described as “mediocre.” Sure, they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, but volume has meant a whole lot, as receivers have averaged a massive 22.9 targets per game against them. Will the Colts have Brissett drop back and have him throw the ball a ton in this game? It seems somewhat unlikely, especially knowing how bad the Panthers run defense has been, combined with how bad Brissett has been. The question is whether the Panthers try to shadow Hilton with James Bradberry, because Donte Jackson has been flat-out awful in coverage this year, allowing 17.2 yards per reception and a touchdown every 9.9 targets in his coverage. The sad truth is that Hilton hasn’t scored more than 7.7 PPR points in four of his last five games. He’s in the low-end WR3 conversation as someone we’ve seen dominate this league, but he’s not a must-play with the recent turn of events. He makes sense for some tournament lineups, though.

Zach Pascal/Dontrelle Inman: It would appear the Colts are going to run more 4WR sets with Inman on the roster, which allowed both him and Pascal to run 60-plus percent of their routes from the slot. The problem is that Pascal ran 28 routes while Inman ran 22 during the Week 15 smackdown against the Saints. The reason this is important is due to the fact that the Panthers have been beaten pretty badly in the slot this year. Ross Cockrell has been a perimeter cornerback throughout his career but has been moved into the slot with the Panthers. The biggest concern with these receivers is not only the fact that they split snaps, but that Brissett’s attempts are likely to be scaled back. With Hilton back, it’s unlikely this offense has room to support multiple fantasy relevant receivers. Pascal gets the nod over Inman, though he’s just a mediocre WR5.

TEs
Greg Olsen: It appears that Olsen will be good to go for the Week 16 matchup with the Colts, though he’ll be playing with his third quarterback this year. It’s tough to say what the target distribution will look like with Grier under center, which brings even more uncertainty to an already uncertain position. The Colts have been a plus matchup for tight ends this year, as evidenced by the nine tight ends who’ve finished with 9.4 or more PPR points. This may not seem like much, but there’s been just one tight end who’s finished with less than 4.7 PPR points (was rookie Josh Oliver who saw just two targets), which is actually a good thing for Olsen’s floor. The 73.5 percent completion-rate likely has a lot to do with it, because if a tight end sees just four targets, he’s likely catching at least three of them. There aren’t many sure things at the tight end position, so it wouldn’t be the worst thing to embrace the uncertainty with Grier, right? Olsen should be considered a low-end TE1/high-end TE2.

Jack Doyle: Everything seemed so great when Eric Ebron went to injured reserve. That week, Doyle racked-up 11 targets and turned them into 6/73/1 against the Titans. It’s been a disaster since that time, though. He’s seen a healthy 11 targets over the last two games, but Brissett’s inaccuracy has held him to just four catches for 48 yards in those two games combined, including one against the Bucs defense that hasn’t been able to stop any tight end. The Panthers rank as the second-best team in the league against tight ends, though that doesn’t tell the whole story. When targeted, tight ends average 8.84 yards per target, which is actually the second-highest mark in the league, behind only the Cardinals. They’ve faced just 69 targets by tight ends all season. The two tight ends who got more than six targets (Jared Cook and George Kittle) were able to finish as top-six tight ends against them. Brissett’s struggles certainly give us reserves about playing him, but the matchup isn’t as bad as most think. Doyle is still in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 conversation.

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

Total: 51.0
Line: NO by 1.0

QBs
Drew Brees: It’s going to be awfully tough to follow-up his record-breaking Monday night performance from last week where he carved-up the Colts secondary. The Titans are the next team up on the schedule, and they have had some injuries in the secondary that have clearly affected the results they’re allowing. They lost Malcolm Butler to injured reserve back in early November and have now been without Adoree Jackson over the last two weeks, which has allowed Derek Carr and Deshaun Watson to combine to complete 44-of-61 passes for 507 yards and four touchdowns. That’s a 72.1 percent completion-rate and 8.31 yards per attempt, so when you combine that with Brees’ 75.8 percent completion-rate and 7.89 yards per attempt, you should net great results. Not just that, but Brees is on a tear right now, scoring 21.1 or more fantasy points in four of the last five games. If the Titans are banged-up in the secondary and aren’t getting pressure (sub 29 percent each of the last two weeks), is there any reason to doubt Brees as a rock-solid QB1 this week? Not that I can see. The Saints are still fighting for a first-round bye, too.

Ryan Tannehill: Since taking over as the starter in Week 7, Tannehill has been fantasy football’s fourth-highest scoring quarterback on a points per game basis, behind only Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, and Drew Brees. There’s been just one game he’s scored less than 18.9 fantasy points, though he still threw for two touchdowns in that game. The Saints are coming off a game where they looked dominant on defense, though it was more of a poor showing by Jacoby Brissett than anything, as the Saints generated pressure on just 27.8 percent of dropbacks. The prior week it was just 23.1 percent. Why is that significant? Because the Saints had generated pressure on at least 31 percent of dropbacks in each of their first 12 games, but after losing Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on the defensive line in Week 14, their numbers have fallen. Brissett was just the sixth quarterback who failed to finish top-15 against the Saints, joining Matt Ryan, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew, and Jameis Winston on that list. That’s a pretty solid guest list, which just goes to show how inconsistent/unpredictable the Saints have been on defense, as they’ve allowed six other quarterbacks 18-plus fantasy points and top-12 finishes, including Jimmy Garoppolo‘s 349-yard, four-touchdown outburst. We also need to factor in that they’ve allowed 5.79 yards per carry to quarterbacks (second-highest mark in the league), as Tannehill is running the ball quite a bit. You likely wouldn’t be where you are without Tannehill, so keep the party rolling with him as a middling QB1.

RBs
Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: Another week has gone by and another week Kamara has failed to score. Despite scoring in just one game this season, Kamara is still the RB11 on the season, which just goes to show he’s been solid, though the lack (disappearance) of touchdowns take away elite upside. He’s totaled less than 15 touches just once since Week 2 and it was the game he was coming off his ankle sprain when he received 12 touches. He’s also totaled at least 84 total yards in 8-of-12 games, so his floor is squarely in the RB2 range, with top-three upside if he starts scoring. The Titans have allowed 13 running back touchdowns this year, which ranks as the 14th-most in the league, and much more than the Colts had allowed (six). There have been six running backs who’ve totaled 100-plus total yards against the Titans this year, too, though five of them did total at least 20 touches, a mark Kamara has hit just twice in the last seven games. This matchup isn’t brutal, nor is it a walk in the park, which puts us in a slightly better spot than we were last week. Are there 12 running backs I’d rather have on my team than Kamara? No, which makes him a low-end RB1 this week, even if he’s performing like an RB2 this year. Murray appeared to have a bigger role last week, though his 11 touches aren’t anything to make him an auto-start. The Titans have been much more giving to running backs in the passing-game than on the ground, as their 3.96 yards per carry suggests. It seems likely the Saints offensive line with be without guard Larry Warford after he was carted off last week, which won’t help make things easier for Murray. He should be considered a touchdown-dependent RB4 who does play for a team that’s projected for 26.0 points.

Derrick Henry: His hamstring injury didn’t limit his role too much last week, but it is cutting into his time on the field over the last two games, as he’s played 59 percent of snaps in them after playing 72-plus percent in each of the previous three games. It was just the fourth game all season he didn’t score a touchdown, though Dion Lewis did. The Saints defense stepped up in a big way last week, limiting the Colts to just 39 yards on 16 carries despite being without both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport, who were both hurt in the Week 14 game, which allowed the 49ers running backs to go for 129 yards on 19 carries. It’s hard to take anything concrete from either contest, as it’s a small sample size, though it’s worth noting the Saints struggled to stop the run back in Weeks 1-3 without Rankins on the field. Prior to the Colts getting nothing, the Saints had allowed 427 yards on 79 carries (5.41 yards per carry) with two rushing touchdowns in the four games without Rankins on the field, though the dominating Week 15 performance is enough to throw a wrench into the can’t-miss conversation. On the year, the Saints have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points on the ground behind only the Patriots and Bucs. You’re starting Henry as a mid-tier RB1 in season-long leagues, but it’s not a week to aggressively attack him in cash games.

WRs
Michael Thomas: Does this even need any explaining? He’s 10 receptions off the all-time record and might be playing against a Titans secondary without their top two cornerbacks. Even if Adoree Jackson plays, we’ve seen two other receivers turn in 32-plus PPR points against them with him on the field. He’s the WR1. Stop overthinking it. *Update* Jackson has been ruled out. Thomas might go nuclear. 

Ted Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith: As crazy as it sounds, there’s been no Saints receiver outside of Thomas who’s finished with more than 11.6 PPR points since Week 1. We typically have some outlier performances from time-to-time, but this stems from the fact that Thomas has seen 66.3 percent of the wide receiver targets. There’s little reason to think that changes, despite the fact that Smith has touchdowns in three of the last four games.

A.J. Brown: After not totaling 46 yards in back-to-back games all season, Brown has erupted for 267 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks, just in time for the fantasy playoffs. He’s now totaled at least 114 yards in three of the last four games despite seeing just 16 targets in the three games leading up to Week 15. There are certain times you just need to ride the guy who’s on a hot streak no matter what history tells us, and that’s Brown right now. The Saints have not been using Marshon Lattimore to shadow opposing No. 1 receivers as of late, and it’s unlikely to start now that they’ve acquired Janoris Jenkins off waivers. We don’t know how he’s going to be thrown into the mix, as Eli Apple has played well this season, so sending him to the bench would make little sense. It’s possible they have Jenkins cover the slot, an area they’ve had big problems with. With so many variables, it’s tough to say anything with concrete evidence to support it. What we do know is that there’s been six wide receivers who’ve totaled 100-plus yards against the Saints and that they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. I’m done doubting Brown, who needs to be in lineups as a WR2, at worst.

Corey Davis: Despite Tannehill’s emergence, Davis has totaled more than 8.8 PPR points just twice all season. He has averaged just 4.0 targets over his last five games and hasn’t topped 57 yards since way back in Week 7. You’d think with the way Brown is playing, it would open things up for him, and maybe it has, though he’s not getting enough targets to warrant consideration outside of DFS tournaments where he’d be a solid pivot off Brown, who may be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore.

TEs
Jared Cook: Ever since Brees returned to the lineup, Cook has been on fire. Over the last six games, he’s totaled 32 targets, 23 receptions, 409 yards, and four touchdowns, and that’s despite having to leave the 49ers game in the first half. He’s totaled at least 54 yards in 5-of-6 games, so it’s not like one game lifted his totals. The Titans were one of the best defenses in the league at defending tight ends last year, but this year has been a different story, as they’ve allowed 10 different tight ends to finish top-15 against them, including four top-five performances. The only tight end who saw more than five targets and didn’t finish with at least 13.3 PPR points was Cameron Brate, who tallied just 3/32/0 on six targets. It’s not all touchdowns, either, as five tight ends have totaled at least 73 yards. With so much attention focused on slowing down Michael Thomas, Cook is likely going to have another top-10 fantasy day in Week 16. Start him as a rock-solid TE1 who’s tied to one of the hottest quarterbacks in football right now.

Jonnu Smith: It’s been so difficult to rely on Smith for production this year, as he’s clearly had his ups as Delanie Walker‘s replacement while scoring 9.4 or more PPR points on four occasions, but he’s also finished with 4.8 or less PPR points on three others. His targets since taking over the job have been 7-5-6-0-2-4-5. There’s nothing consistent about that. The Saints just got done holding Jack Doyle to just two catches and 21 yards, though part of the issue was his quarterback play. The Saints have not been a dominant defense against tight ends, as they’ve allowed 7-of-14 finish as top-13 options, though the other seven finished outside the top-20. The 7.53 yards per target they’ve allowed to tight ends is right around the league average, though they have allowed just four touchdowns on 89 targets. Knowing they had Anthony Firkser run 14 routes and MyCole Pruitt run 10 routes last week highlights the possibility that Smith has a wide range of outcomes to his projection. He’s in the middling TE2 conversation with the two performances he’s coming off, but he’s far from a lock.

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos

Total: 38.0
Line: DEN by 6.5

QBs
David Blough: The Lions may be better off putting Shane Falco under center at this point. No, you’re not playing Blough against anyone, let alone on the road as a 6.5-point underdog against the team that’s allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points on the season.

Drew Lock: The Broncos gameplan last week was questionable at best. They had Lock drop back to pass 42 times while trying to run the ball just 13 times against a Chiefs defense that clearly has an issue stopping the run. That’s not to mention the fact that they were playing in a blizzard. Lock completed just 45 percent of his passes, though the snow was clearly an issue. The temperature is supposed to be near 60 degrees when they play this game on Sunday, so that won’t be an issue against the Lions. They’ve been a defense to target with streaming quarterbacks, as they’ve now allowed 11-of-14 quarterbacks to finish with 18-plus fantasy points. That’s right, 11-of-14 quarterbacks have finished as top-12 options against them. With their run defense playing better over the second half of the season, we’ve watched the flood gates open in the secondary, as they’ve now allowed 301.3 passing yards per game. The issue in this game will be the lack of competence on the other sideline. If the Lions can’t score points, Lock will likely wind-up throwing the ball less than 30 times. Knowing he offers very little in the mobility department, that leaves us with a lower floor than we’d like out of our streamer. This game has one of the lowest implied totals because of this. The one big game from Fant will give us something to latch ourselves onto when thinking about him as a streamer, but let’s not forget this team ranks 30th in points per game. He can safely be used in 2QB leagues but there are better options available in standard leagues.

RBs
Kerryon Johnson: From what we know right now, it seems like Johnson is going to play in Week 16. He’s been practicing over the last couple weeks, but wasn’t eligible to play until this week, so there shouldn’t be much concern about his workload. Unfortunately, the opponent he gets this week is one of the tougher matchups in the league. The Broncos have faced the seventh-most rushing attempts against them, but they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. From a production per opportunity standpoint, they rank as the fifth-best team in the league behind only the Steelers, 49ers, Patriots, and Bucs. The good news is that Johnson is a solid receiver and the Lions are extremely short on where targets can go. With Chris Harris Jr. matched-up with Golladay, Johnson should be targeted more than he typically would. It doesn’t change the fact that the Broncos defense has allowed the fourth-fewest points to opponents, and the Lions have averaged just 14.7 points per game since Blough took over as the starter. That crushes any upside you were hoping for with Johnson, though he should still net 15 touches if Bo Scarbrough remains out, which does put him in RB3 territory. *Update* As of Friday afternoon, the Lions haven’t officially activated Johnson, though they’re still expected to. Scarbrough was limited throughout the week in practice and is listed as questionable. This may be a situation to avoid if possible. 

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: This timeshare has been maddening all season, so why should we expect it to be different in Week 16? Here’s a chart of the carries and how they’ve been shared throughout the year.

Looking at this, you can see that Lindsay has totaled at least 15 carries in 4-of-5 wins. The Broncos are clear favorites here, as the 6.5-point spread indicates. Coming off a game where the play-calling was horrendous, expect them to pound the rock. The Lions have been much better against the run over the second half of the season, though their secondary has been bleeding production. The only running back who totaled 15-plus carries against the Lions and didn’t finish as a top-18 running back was David Montgomery, who’s struggled to be efficient in the Bears offense. The fact that the Lions opponents have averaged 29.1 running back touches per game suggests there should be enough to go around in this backfield, and the gamescript should favor Lindsay’s role as the primary 1-2 down back. Start him as a middling RB2 who comes with top-10 upside. Freeman’s production is typically tied to the passing game, and if they don’t need to pass the ball a whole lot here, that’s concerning for his fantasy floor, as he’s failed to top eight carries since back in Week 8. He belongs in the middling RB4 conversation this week.

WRs
Kenny Golladay: He was the first receiver all season who saw seven targets against the Bucs and finished outside the top-30 wide receivers. Do we understand how bad Blough is by now? Even with T.J. Hockenson and Marvin Jones on injured reserve, he saw just seven targets last week. Now he’s on to play the Broncos, a secondary that’s allowed just three wide receivers to finish top-12 against them all season. It took an average of 11.7 PPR points to finish as a top-36 wide receiver last year, a number the Broncos have allowed just 14 wide receivers to hit through 14 games. Naturally, we want to anoint Golladay as the clear-cut option on the Lions, though he’s going to get the Chris Harris Jr. treatment in coverage this week. He’s someone who started out the year on fire, but has trailed off as the year’s gone on. Over the last four weeks, he hasn’t been someone to avoid, as he’s allowed 20-of-23 passing for 243 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. It’s worth noting he played against Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and John Brown, but those are still not the type of numbers he would’ve allowed earlier in the year. Golladay remains on the low-end WR3 radar, but you saw his risk last week.

Danny Amendola: We loved him last week, so to see him tally eight receptions for 102 yards was fantastic, but the matchup this week is not one you should be targeting the slot receiver. As a whole, the Broncos have allowed just 66-of-96 passing for 627 yards and five touchdowns in the slot this season, which amounts to just 6.53 yards per target, a far cry from what the Bucs have allowed. We can’t look past the 29 targets he’s seen over the last three games with Blough, but this is more of a floor game for Amendola than a ceiling one. If you play in PPR formats and want someone who should score at least 6-8 PPR points, he can fill that role, but he’s unlikely to finish as a top-40 option this week.

Courtland Sutton: It was good to see Sutton finish with 79 yards last week, as the weather conditions weren’t exactly friendly. He’s now tallied at least 72 yards and/or a touchdown in 11-of-14 games despite playing with three different quarterbacks. The 10 targets he saw in Week 15 were a season-high. Crazy, right? Now on to a matchup with the Lions who’ve allowed 14 different wide receivers finish as top-20 options against them, including eight inside the top 10. He’s going to see Darius Slay for much of the game, and though he’s their best cornerback, he hasn’t been untouchable this season. He’s allowed just a 57 percent catch-rate in his coverage, but he’s also allowed 14.4 yards per reception, so receivers are getting over the top on him. Sutton’s 427 yards on targets that travel 20-plus yards in the air rank fifth in the NFL. There’s been just one game this year where the Lions didn’t allow a top-28 wide receiver performance, which is an amazing floor for Sutton. Plug him in as a solid WR2 and expect him to overcome the matchup with Slay.

TEs
Logan Thomas and Jesse James: It seemed like Thomas was the tight end who was going to fill the receiving role after tallying four targets in Week 14, but then we saw James get targeted five times last week. The pass routes are split with Thomas 46 and James 35, so it’s not going to feel good to recommend either of them versus the Broncos. They’ve allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to the tight end position, though a lot of that is due to volume, as the 1.59 PPR points per target ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in football. They’ve also allowed just three touchdowns to the position despite seeing 114 targets, which doesn’t bode well with the fact that Blough has thrown one touchdown over the last two weeks. You’re not going to want to stream either of these guys.

Noah Fant: He had to leave the game multiple times last week as he battles through the bumps and bruises of an NFL season, but he did keep returning, so we should expect him out there for this game. He’s played just 56-of-118 possible snaps over the last two weeks, and knowing the Broncos have nothing to play for, he comes with some additional risk of being benched if there is any sign of lingering pain. The Lions have required elite volume to produce against them, as each of the five tight ends who finished as top-12 options against them saw at least six targets. There have actually been three tight ends who’ve seen seven-plus target against them and failed to post double-digit PPR points, so it’s not a smash-spot or anything. Fant has seen more than five targets just twice all year, so he’s far from a lock for volume in a game the Broncos shouldn’t have to throw a whole lot. He’s done well with his targets from Lock, totaling 7/174/1 on 10 targets, though relying on big plays can get dangerous. He should be considered a high-end TE2 who comes with some risk.

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 45.5
Line: LAC by 5.5

QBs
Derek Carr: It may be the best season in Carr’s career, though that hasn’t amounted to much fantasy success. He hasn’t finished better than the QB10 all season and is heading into a matchup with the Chargers, a team that’s allowed just one top-12 quarterback all season. If there’s something we’ve learned about Carr against the Chargers under Jon Gruden, it’s that the scheme doesn’t appeal to him from a production standpoint. He’s played three games against them since the start of last year and in each game, he’s failed to produce more than 13 fantasy points. The first game netted 268/1/1, the second 243/0/0, and the third 218/1/0. None of those games suggest he’s a solid streamer, and in fact, he’s coming into this game with even fewer weapons. There have been just two quarterbacks all year who’ve thrown for more than 253 yards against the Chargers, and both of them (Deshaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill) came in the first seven weeks of the season. Add in the 19 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed through 14 games and you have yourself a clear fade.

Philip Rivers: Just when everyone’s about to give up on ol’ Philip, he goes out and throws for 314 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars. Then… he follows that up with a three-interception game against the Vikings the following week. He’s still in danger of getting benched at any point, so you need to know that going in. His first game against the Raiders this year didn’t go so well, as he threw for just 207 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. He fared much better last year against the same scheme, as he tallied 339/2 in the first game, and then 223/2/1 in the second one. The Raiders defense has slowly faded with Rivers down the stretch, though, as they’ve now allowed 9-of-14 quarterbacks to score 18.7 or more fantasy points, including each of the last four. In fact, the only teams that have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last four weeks are the Colts and 49ers, two teams that were obliterated by Drew Brees. They’ve generated pressure on just 18.5 percent of their opponents dropbacks the last two weeks, which is the lowest mark in the NFL, and a far cry from the 41.5 percent pressure-rate in their first game against Rivers. These two teams clearly know each other well, but given the Raiders’ struggles as of late, we have to give Rivers the benefit of the doubt and consider him a mid-tier QB2. He would be higher if not for the risk of him being benched after a slow start. He has finished outside the top-20 quarterbacks in six of his last seven starts after all.

RBs
DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard: After pushing Josh Jacobs out there to play last week, Jon Gruden said on Tuesday it’s unlikely that Jacobs will play this week. Because of that, we should plan for Washington to get the start against the Chargers. He did a great job filling in Week 14 when he tallied 96 total yards and a touchdown on 20 touches against the Titans, which isn’t exactly a great matchup, either. The Chargers pass defense has been on-point for most of the year, so the way to move the ball has been on the ground, which is why they’ve allowed the 11th-most points to running backs. The biggest issue against the Chargers is lack of plays, as their games net a league-low 120 plays per game, while the Raiders’ games have netted just 121.9 plays, which is the third-lowest mark. Still, opponents have decided to pass the ball on just 54.7 percent of plays against the Chargers because they know it’s not as efficient. In the first meeting between the two teams, we saw the Raiders backfield combine for 74 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while racking-up a massive 10 catches for 101 yards and another touchdown through the air. All-in-all, the running backs alone scored 39.5 PPR points. While Washington isn’t quite on Jacobs’ level, he should net 15-plus touches and deliver a low-end RB2/high-end RB3-type performance. Richard is going to be involved as well, though he hasn’t topped nine touches all year, so he’s the one who needs to be highly efficient in order to do anything more than someone like Duke Johnson would, which is mid-to-low-end RB4 territory. Richard totaled seven carries and three targets in the game Jacobs missed in Week 14 while Washington totaled 21 opportunities, so it’s a 70/30 type split between them. *Update* Jacobs has been ruled out, putting Washington squarely in the low-end RB2 conversation. 

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: If you missed what happened in Week 15, Gordon was benched for fumbling twice. You shouldn’t expect that punishment to last long, as it’s just the second game he’s fumbled in since his rookie season. It was an Ekeler-type gamescript against the Vikings regardless, but it’s something to add to the timeshare fuel. The last time they played the Raiders, the gamescript was somewhat neutral and the touch split went Gordon 23 – Ekeler 8. That gap has surely shrunk over the last month (since that game), as Gordon has totaled 68 touches to Ekeler’s 50. Meanwhile, the Raiders run defense has been trending in the wrong direction as the season’s gone on, as they’ve allowed four rushing touchdowns over their last three games, but they’ve struggled all year against pass-catching backs, as indicated by the 1.84 PPR points per target that ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. The gamescript is expected to be in Gordon’s favor as the Chargers are 6.5-point favorites, and the Raiders have allowed just 10 running backs to finish better than RB24 this year, so it’s going to be tough for the Chargers to get both Ekeler and Gordon in that territory like they did last time. Ekeler hasn’t finished with fewer than 12.8 PPR points since back in Week 8, while Gordon’s first time below 12.0 PPR points in that same timeframe was last week. It’s getting harder and harder to side with Gordon as the better play, but given they’re nearly a full touchdown favorite, we have to side with him as a solid RB2 while Ekeler slots in as a low-end RB2. Both are playable.

WRs
Tyrell Williams: After scoring a touchdown early in the game last week, Williams disappeared like he has all season. He’s now finished with less than 50 yards in 9-of-12 games this year and he’s totaled more than three receptions just once since Week 2. It’s touchdown-or-bust for him against his former team that held him to just three catches and 25 yards in their first meeting this year. The Chargers defense is the worst matchup for someone like Williams, as they’ve allowed a 70.4 percent catch-rate, which bodes well for receivers who get a lot of targets, but Williams is someone who relies on the big play and touchdowns to produce. Well, the Chargers have allowed fifth-fewest pass plays of 20-plus yards and have allowed nine touchdowns to receivers all year. Can he catch a touchdown to salvage another bad day? Sure, but you shouldn’t bank on it in this matchup. He’s just a low-ceiling WR4/5 option.

Keenan Allen: After a brutal stretch that had some questioning whether Allen was startable, he’s returned to the same player you thought you were getting when you drafted him. He’s now totaled at least five receptions and 68 yards in each of the last five games. The matchup with the Raiders netted eight catches for 68 yards back in Week 10, though it took 11 targets to get there. While the Raiders were a slot machine to slot receivers earlier in the year, here’s a list of the recent ones they’ve played: Dede Westbrook 2/14/0, Sammy Watkins 0/0/0, Jamison Crowder 2/18/0, and Tyler Boyd 1/0/0. While none of them are on Allen’s level, even those receivers would’ve crushed this matchup earlier in the year. With the way Allen has played lately, he should be in lineups as a high-end WR2, but the matchup in the slot isn’t as good as it is on the perimeter, which is why there are better options in DFS cash games.

Mike Williams: We talked about the matchup he had last week and why it was likely he would produce. He didn’t disappoint, posting 71 yards and a touchdown. He’s now had a 39-plus yard catch in seven straight games. The Raiders are another matchup Williams should be able to do extremely well, as they’ve really struggled with perimeter wide receivers. After trading away Gareon Conley, they have resorted to rookie Trayvon Mullen and a combination of Nevin Lawson and Daryl Worley as the starting cornerbacks, though Worley had to miss Week 15. The combination of Mullen and Worley have allowed just a 56 percent catch-rate in their coverage, but the receptions have gone for 14.01 yards apiece with a touchdown every 18.0 targets. This matchup should be right up Williams’ alley, though it’s a tad worrisome he saw just three targets in their last meeting (that netted two catches for 55 yards). He should be considered a risk/reward WR3 this week, but one I’d probably side with if struggling with a “who to start” choice.

TEs
Darren Waller: After nearly being out of the league a year ago, Waller surpassed 1,000 yards in Week 15 and currently sits as the No. 3 tight end in PPR formats behind only Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. He’s also totaled at least six catches and 72 yards in each of the last three games while seeing 25 targets in those games. The Chargers matchup is a tough one with Derwin James back patrolling the middle of the field. Despite missing James for most of the year and being down to their third-string safety at times, the Chargers have allowed the ninth-fewest points to tight ends. With that being said, there’s been just five tight ends who’ve seen at least five targets against them this year. Jordan Akins (TE5), Travis Kelce (TE1), Darren Fells (TE8), Nick O’Leary (TE9), and Waller (TE22). So, Waller was the only one who didn’t finish as a top-10 tight end, as he caught three passes for 40 yards on his five targets in their Week 10 meeting. With less options to throw to, we should see that target number increase. With him acting as their No. 1 receiver, Waller should be in lineups as a middling TE1 even with the tough matchup.

Hunter Henry: After seeing an elite target share in each of his seven games, Henry has fallen by the wayside in the Chargers offense, as he’s seen just nine targets over the last three weeks. He’s caught just two passes in each of those games and hasn’t totaled 40 yards in any of them. Does that automatically mean he’s got no chance of returning to his big role in the offense? No. It just simply means you have to understand the risk associated with him and if you have someone else that’s safer, you may want to go that route. The Raiders are a team he caught four passes for 30 yards and a touchdown against back in Week 10, though that was when he had his larger role in the offense. After being the worst team in the league against tight ends last year, the Raiders are in the bottom-six this year. They’ve allowed nine different tight ends to finish with double-digit PPR points against them, though a lot has relied upon big plays and touchdowns. The 63.0 percent completion-rate they’re allowing to them is actually the best in the league, but the 12.81 yards per reception ranks second-most, while the touchdown they allow every 11.1 targets is the third-most often. Henry should be considered a mid-to-low-end TE1 with his decreased role the last three games, but he should win the tiebreaker if choosing between him and another potential streamer.