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This will take discipline. And likely cause pain.

I recently finished a mock draft in which I intentionally punted home runs. It wasn’t easy, but the workaround involved pitching. Lots of it.

I won’t be able to use this technique here. Which is one of the reasons why I chose this topic.

I tend to skew toward starting pitching when I draft. Real leagues place a premium on pitching that is occasionally captured in mock drafts but is not always perfectly represented. In an effort to be aggressive and remain ahead of the curve, I often lean toward pitchers until doing so would hurt my team.

In this draft, I’m not only cutting off the ability to target wins, but I probably have to forego the top tiers of pitchers. It will hurt me personally, but exercise is designed to strengthen. I’m aiming to improve my drafting skill by working around one of the key statistics, as well as lowering the importance I place on the starting pitching position, as a whole.

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Results

The lineup of this 12-team draft is C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 4 P, 5 BN, and was conducted using FantasyPros’ Draft Simulator.

1.6 Mookie Betts (OF – LAD)
I assumed I’d be in this exact position when I started the draft. That is, Gerrit Cole would be gone — and I’d have no issue with it — but Jacob deGrom would be available. Technically, if I could guarantee that he would win twelve games, I’d pounce, but I can’t. He’s ridiculously talented and, even if he hasn’t received run support in the past, the potential is still there. I can’t have that on my team. Instead, I’ll take the well-rounded fantasy asset of Mookie Betts and look for pitchers later.

Others Considered: Jacob deGrom

2.7 Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS – SD)
I’ve made it a point to basically always take Fernando Tatis Jr. in the second round, if possible. The reality is that he might not be worth it. He might be a bust. He might also be a top-five fantasy hitter. He steals bases, hits for a high average, and has 30-home run potential if given a full season. I’ll take that with my second pick, every time.

Others Considered: Anthony Rendon, Justin Verlander

3.6 Pete Alonso (1B – NYM)
I obsessed over this pick because of my restriction, and I’m going in a direction I haven’t in prior drafts. Such is the purpose of this draft. If I can’t add wins, then it’s difficult to add any starting pitcher at this stage. Normally, I target power in the form of Yordan Alvarez. Pete Alonso is available and, while I fully expect a power regression, he remains one of the top home-run producers. I’m getting potential first-round value in the third round.

Others Considered: Blake Snell, Clayton Kershaw, Luis Castillo

4.7 Kris Bryant (3B/OF – CHC)
I’m not actively targeting hitters, but the two top choices at starting pitcher give me cause for concern in terms of ERA and WHIP. I simply can’t afford to add a player in the fourth round who might help in the one category I am punting, but not enough in the remaining areas. I am peeking ahead to the next round, where I might draft a closer. For now, Kris Bryant will join my team and bring some power, a decent batting average, and close to 100 runs scored.

Others Considered: Ketel Marte, Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola

5.6 Kirby Yates (RP – SD)
I mentioned taking a closer in this round, but I didn’t expect it to be Kirby Yates. Apparently my fellow drafters read my comments and jumped ahead of me to grab Josh Hader. No matter. I will adapt! Yates’ ridiculous ERA from last year will probably increase but, if it remains under 3.00 and my team doesn’t care about wins, he’s the perfect fit.

Others Considered: Aroldis Chapman

6.7 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B – TOR)
I have drafted Yoan Moncada in this range almost every time, but I’m going with a different approach here. I have taken relatively balanced hitters already, and I want someone who could dominate a category. Do I expect this year to be the one in which Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. explodes for power? No. But I am looking for an improvement from either his batting average or home run total. One would be enough to warrant this pick — I can slide Bryant to the outfield — but two would be a major victory.

Others Considered: Yoan Moncada

7.6 Aroldis Chapman (RP – NYY)
No deep thoughts here. If I’m moving away from starting pitching, then my bullpen has to be excellent. I’m starting off with two players who could each give me ERAs under 3.00 and I’m jumping way ahead in the saves leaderboard.

Others Considered: Brandon Woodruff

8.7 Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL)
Technically, adding Brandon Woodruff is a risk to my strategy, but I’m doing so to avoid losing the opportunity of strikeouts. If I wait too long to draft starting pitching, then my only source for strikeouts will be players likely to cripple the ratio statistics I worked so hard to secure. In other words, starting pitchers will be a necessity, so I’m targeting them when I have no pull in another direction.

Others Considered: Jorge Soler

9.6 Matt Chapman (3B – OAK)
I just can’t ignore Matt Chapman in the ninth round. Indeed, my third base position is already filled twice, but Chapman brings power and runs scored. The only other consideration here would have been a closer, but, with three on the board that I like, I’ll take the risk that at least one will make it to the tenth round.

Others Considered: Edwin Diaz, Brad Hand, Taylor Rogers

10.7 Ken Giles (RP – TOR)
None made it to the tenth round. I’m a failure. I’ll have to settle for the fourth on the list of three. Although this one actually makes sense for me. I normally worry about Ken Giles because of the Toronto Blue Jays’ potential to trade him. Since I will have saves firmly in hand by the end of this draft, I actually don’t care if Giles is the closer for the entire season. Get me twenty saves instead of thirty, keep the ERA and WHIP low, and we’ll all be just fine.

Others Considered: Jesus Luzardo

11.6 Max Fried (SP – ATL)
I was so close! Jesus Luzardo would have been the perfect next pick for my team. He went one spot before my turn. I clenched my fists and groaned. Reluctantly, I’ll take Max Fried. He follows the same mold as Woodruff, and he’ll either be an excellent breakout here or get lost in my lineup. I’m obviously expecting the former, but the importance I’m placing on starting pitching is so low that the latter wouldn’t hurt me.

Others Considered: David Dahl

12.7 Nick Anderson (RP – TB)
Had I not been sniped in recent rounds, I would have taken the chance that Nick Anderson makes it back to me for my next pick. I can’t. The league is out to get me and my paranoia is warranted. Nick Anderson is the perfect pitcher for me largely because of his status. He should be the closer for the Tampa Bay Rays, but the level of confidence the fantasy community has in Tampa Bay sticking to a pitching plan is minuscule. I personally don’t care if he pitches in the ninth, eighth, or second inning. I’ll take his sparking ERA and WHIP.

Others Considered: David Dahl

13.6 David Dahl (OF – COL)
It is becoming abundantly clear that I will be over-exposed to David Dahl in 2020. I have, however, done enough mock drafts to know that he is still undervalued. Here, I considered taking him in each of the last two rounds but went elsewhere. The third time appears to be the charm as the acquisition price is too low for someone of Dahl’s potential. As I continue to write, he only needs to stay on the field in order to be productive, and I’m always willing to risk a pick in this range that it happens.

Others Considered: Franmil Reyes

14.7 Hansel Robles (RP – LAA)
I’ve ended up with Hansel Robles on most of my teams, and it’s because of his ranking against other closers. He does not have the best job security but, among other options with the same problem, he’s one of the most talented. We’re usually taking more risk than we realize when drafting closers, and Robles is no exception. He just projects to be one of the better shaky options.

Others Considered: Sean Manaea

15.6 Luke Weaver (SP – ARI)
If I were buying into Luke Weaver in a standard, 162-game regular season, then why wouldn’t I want him in a shortened schedule? One of the only issues with Weaver appeared to be an eventual innings limit — he threw only 64.1 innings in 2019 and was not likely to add more than 80 innings to his total in 2020 — but this should no longer be a problem. More accurately, the risk was not in Weaver cutting his season short — we could have reasonably projected where it ends — but in dangerously scaling his numbers from 12 starts to 30. Now, we’re only asking Weaver to approximate what he did, last year. I’ll take any associated risk with him failing in the 15th round.

Others Considered: Mitch Keller

16.7 Mitch Keller (SP – PIT)
It’s almost a joke at this point. Almost. I must own Mitch Keller in every format and every draft. One of the reasons is obviously because I expect him to outperform his low ADP. The other purpose of my constant targeting is to track his price. Which has not risen. Throughout this extended offseason, I have written about players like Zac Gallen and the aforementioned Weaver gaining steam via hype, but these same pitchers — young with unknown inning totals — are all likely to benefit from a short season. To my surprise, Keller has not seen the same inflation in his draft stock like Gallen. I remain convinced that his ugly ERA from 2019 is the contributing factor. I’ll take it and the discount he continues to carry.

Others Considered: Kyle Tucker

17.6 Kyle Tucker (OF – HOU)
I find it interesting that I have now landed on Kyle Tucker in both of my mock draft experiments that involve limiting factors. Overall, I am likely on the lower end of the industry scale for Tucker, but I have no qualms with selecting him in the later rounds. Still, it’s curious that it has happened in these specific “punting” articles. I suspect this is because, with my options limited early, I am pushing my risks to the later rounds. Instead of trying to offset early chances with stability — as I would in other situations — I can only afford to roll the metaphorical dice at this point.

Others Considered: Khris Davis, Lorenzo Cain

18.7 J.D. Davis (3B/OF – NYM)
I just wrote about risk with Kyle Tucker and then drafted one of the least risky late-round players in J.D. Davis. Granted, no one is a guarantee at this stage of the game, but any potential regression is undoubtedly factored into Davis’ price. If we were basing his value on last year’s numbers, alone, would he not be five rounds higher? Maybe ten? Instead, Davis is rightfully being downgraded because of the small track record. The 18th round is a “downgrade” enough for me.

Others Considered: Paul DeJong

19.6 Garrett Hampson (2B/SS/OF – COL)
Quite frankly, I’m always surprised to see how late Garrett Hampson is being selected in both real and mock drafts. His power is clearly lacking, but he should give double-digit steals from the second base position. The fact that he has only played a total of 129 through two seasons also means that we haven’t fully seen what Hampson could do. This is the same player who stole a total of 123 bases and hit above .300 through his first three Minor League seasons.

Others Considered: Chris Archer

20.7 Chris Archer (SP – PIT)
I’ve been targeting Chris Archer in many of my mock drafts, but he became a necessity given this particular format. As a starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Archer has a low ceiling for wins. That’s perfect for my win-averse roster. He does bring excellent strikeout potential and, if I’m losing one pitching category, I need another. Archer has been on my radar for a few rounds, but I was confident that I could get him as late as the last round. I just didn’t want to take the chance of missing out on him for this team.

Others Considered: Avisail Garcia

21.6 Caleb Smith (SP – MIA)
This is a first for me in terms of drafting Caleb Smith, but my writeup on Archer should explain exactly why I went with Smith in the following round. His team limits his win totals, but he carries a strikeout rate of at least one per inning.

Others Considered: Ryan Pressly

22.7 Robinson Chirinos (C – TEX)
As usual, if I’m not filling my catcher position earlier, then I’m using my last round pick to meet the roster requirements. Robinson Chirinos is far from a disaster at the plate, but, like almost every option available to me, will hurt my team’s batting average. He’ll give me some pop, though, and his new home ballpark appears to be extremely hitter-friendly — assuming he plays his home games in the Texas Rangers’ ballpark and not elsewhere due to the current state of the 2020 season.

Others Considered: Tucker Barnhart

Summary

Yikes. 71 out of 100. A grade of C-. A last-place projection.

In all honestly, I expected the FantasyPros Draft Simulator to like my team better than it did, but I get it. I didn’t share my disdain for this lineup while writing it as much as I have with others in the past, but I clearly don’t like it. Still, I thought I could cover the hole without wins from other areas. I couldn’t.

In fact, that’s the one takeaway that should have been obvious. If I’m punting wins, I’m also punting strikeouts. I didn’t want to admit that, but it’s blatantly clear. There simply aren’t enough starting pitchers who could keep my win total low but still produce elsewhere. Even taking Jacob deGrom instead of Mookie Betts would not have helped.

In the end, not only do I believe this strategy is not viable, but I personally don’t like it. I always lean toward starting pitching and, even if I’m targeting hitters early, I want to load up on arms later. To go an entire draft without ever making a serious effort to fill out my pitching staff left me uncomfortable to the end.

A team without win potential — and, really, a complete starting pitching rotation — is pathetic.

Find more of our category-punting MLB mock draft articles:

• 12-Team Mock Draft: Punting Strikeouts
• 12-Team Mock Draft: Punting RBI
• 12-Team Mock Draft: Punting Runs
• 12-Team Mock Draft: Punting Batting Average
• 12-Team Mock Draft: Punting Steals
• 12-Team Mock Draft: Punting Home Runs

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.