Amon-Ra St. Brown will have more target competition since the Lions are healthy and add speedster D.J. Chark, but Week 1 is a chance to use St. Brown in DFS before his detractors wake up.
The NFL season opened on Thursday, but the main DFS fun starts on Sunday. Week 1 is always fascinating, as it’s unclear how teams will differ from the previous year. Teams have changed personnel, creating a golden opportunity to speculate before seeing how players are used when the games count. Still, the player pool must be trimmed to a manageable number for roster construction. Thus, check out the highlighted players below who should be considered when building rosters for the opening week’s main slate.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
The NFL season opened on Thursday, but the main DFS fun starts on Sunday. Week 1 is always fascinating, as it’s unclear how teams will differ from the previous year. Teams have changed personnel, creating a golden opportunity to speculate before seeing how players are used when the games count. Still, the player pool must be trimmed to a manageable number for roster construction. Thus, check out the highlighted players below who should be considered when building rosters for the opening week’s main slate.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Ravens Analysis: Mark Andrews was the most productive tight end last year. However, Andrews was more productive when Lamar Jackson was out. So, should DFS gamers be concerned? No.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in 11 games Jackson started and finished in 2021, Andrews had 85 targets, 56 receptions, 738 receiving yards, five touchdowns and 1.94 Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR). So, Andrews averaged 5.1 receptions and 67.1 receiving yards per game.
Baltimore's pass-catching corps is bereft of established talent, creating an opportunity for Andrews to hog targets. Understandably, the FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer loves Andrews this week, projecting him as the TE1 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the best value score at the position at the latter.
Jets Analysis: Joe Flacco is starting for the Jets, and that's a boon for Elijah Moore's outlook. Moore was the apple of Flacco's eye. According to 4For4's Market Share Splits App, in two games with Flacco, Moore averaged 8.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, 92.5 receiving yards, 90.0 Air Yards, and 16.2 yards per reception.
Meanwhile, the Jets' defense might look odd as a suggestion as home underdogs. However, Jackson takes sacks and puts the ball in harm's way at a rate beneficial for opposing fantasy defenses. According to PFF, Jackson's 3.6% Turnover-worthy-play rate (TWP%) was the 12th-highest mark out of 31 quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks in 2021. Additionally, according to StatHead, Jackson's 8.12% sack rate was the fourth-highest mark out of 33 quarterbacks who attempted at least 400 pass attempts in 2020-2021. Therefore, gamers should consider the Jets DST as a punt in GPPs.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: NO -5.5
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Saints Analysis: The Saints added talent to their receiving room in the offseason. Nevertheless, it could take time for Jameis Winston to gel with his weapons, and the Falcons are unlikely to push them. As a result, fading them is logical in Week 1.
Falcons Analysis: Kyle Pitts had a historically good rookie season for a tight end and immediately threw his hat in the ring with the best players at the position. Among tight ends targeted at least 40 times in 2021, Pitts was fourth in targets (107), tied for seventh in receptions (68), third in receiving yards (1,026), fifth in Yards Per Route Run (2.02 Y/RR) and first in yards per reception (15.1).
Pitts' excellent performance was made all the more impressive by routinely lining up in the slot and on the perimeter, essentially playing a jumbo wide receiver role. According to PFF, played only 21.8% of passing snap inline, the third-lowest mark among tight ends. Could second-year head coach Arthur Smith attempt to generate more matchups against linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field in Pitts' sophomore campaign? Maybe. And, of course, adding Drake London to the receiving corps might have been precisely the addition Smith needed to move Pitts around more. Finally, the lineup optimizer loves Pitts, tabbing him at the TE3 at both DFS providers and the best value at the position on FD.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Spread: IND -7.0
Over/Under: 45.5
Colts Analysis: The Colts are commanding favorites against the host Texans. Thus, the stage is set for a perfect game script for Jonathan Taylor to feast. Taylor led qualified running backs with 106.5 rushing yards per game and 18 rushing touchdowns. He also added 2.4 receptions and 21.2 receiving yards per game, with two more scores through the air.
The reigning rushing champ steamrolled the Texans in 2021. In Week 6, he rumbled for 145 yards and two scores on only 14 attempts, adding a 13-yard reception for good measure. Then, in Week 13, he smashed them for 143 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 32 attempts. He has an upside case for usage on both sites, but he's a better value and scoring-format fit on FD, where the optimizer projects him as the RB1 with the best value score among running backs.
Taylor isn't a one-man show, though. Michael Pittman broke out as a sophomore. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Pittman was tied for the eighth-highest Target Share (25.6%). He parlayed his looks into 5.2 receptions and 63.6 receiving yards per game and six touchdowns. Pittman should benefit from the Colts upgrading from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan at quarterback. Pittman projects as the WR4 on both DFS platforms and pops as a value, netting the WR1 value score at DK and the WR3 value score at FD.
Finally, Mo Alie-Cox is a viable touchdown-chasing punt on DK attached to a good implied total and with a growing role in the offense.
Texans Analysis: Davis Mills exceeded expectations last year. Nonetheless, the Texans have an ugly implied total. So, it's not outrageous to wholly fade them. However, if you're looking for a bring-back in a game stack with Taylor or Pittman, Nico Collins is an affordable option. The second-year receiver with an intriguing athletic profile is the No. 2 wideout for the Texans. According to 4For4 Football, he averaged 2.6 receptions, 37.7 receiving yards, and 52.3 Air Yards per game with Mills at quarterback. Obviously, those aren't exciting numbers, but they give him a foundation to build on. Additionally, he has a path to being busy if the game goes according to the spread and the Texans are in catch-up mode most of the game.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders
Spread: WSH -2.5
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Jaguars Analysis: Christian Kirk isn't the prototypical No. 1 receiver, and he's probably overpaid. Regardless, the Jaguars paid him the big bucks and prioritized signing him after a breakout campaign. Kirk was efficient, tying for 26th out of 101 receivers targeted at least 40 times in 2021 with 1.81 Y/RR. The speedy slot was used vertically, sporting a 12.1-yard Average Depth of Target (aDoT), per PFF.
He'll have a chance to make a great first impression for his new team against a club that struggled to defend wideouts in 2021. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Washington yielded the fifth-most receiving yards (2,926) to wide receivers. So, getting a team's probable top pass-catcher in a plus matchup at Kirk's affordable salary is attractive.
The last time we saw the Jaguars take the field for a regular season game, they clowned Wentz. They now have a competent head coach and upgraded their defensive personnel. Meanwhile, Wentz is protected by a worse offensive line and no longer has Taylor to keep defenses honest. Finally, Wentz is a sack and turnover machine. Since 2020, he's had the fifth-highest sack rate (7.92%) and 12th-highest interception rate (2.3%) out of quarterbacks with at least 400 pass attempts. As a result, the Jags are an exciting DST punt.
Commanders Analysis: Jahan Dotson was the 16th pick in this year's NFL Draft and claimed a starting receiver spot for the Commanders. The rookie wideout was productive in college and showed alignment versatility. According to PFF, Dotson played 23.7% of the passing snaps in the slot and 76.3% wide in 2021. So, he could play in two-receiver formations. Dotson is a talented prospect with a punt salary on DK, and the optimizer tags him with the fourth-best value score at wide receiver there.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Spread: PHI -4.0
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles were a run-heavy team last year after opening the year slinging it around the field. Head coach Nick Sirianni deserves credit for adjusting the offense to his personnel. Yet, the addition of alpha wideout A.J. Brown might be a sign they'd like to open the offense up.
Week 1 is a great opportunity to experiment and see how Jalen Hurts looks airing it out. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions were 27th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, even if Hurts maintains the status quo as a passer, he's a weapon on the ground. Last year, he averaged 52.3 rushing yards per game and scored 10 touchdowns.
I'm not crazy about Brown as a one-off selection, but he's an excellent stacking choice with Hurts. However, I could slide him in as a solo option as I build more lineups before Sunday, and PFF grades his matchup advantage over the cornerbacks he'll face in coverage as the largest in Week 1.
Dallas Goedert is also a superb stacking option with more solo appeal at a shallower position than Brown at wideout. Goedert had a breakout campaign last year. Out of 30 tight ends targeted at least 40 times, Goedert's 2.34 Y/RR was the second-highest mark.
Moreover, Goedert genuinely flourished after the Eagles traded Zach Ertz. In 11 games, including the postseason, he had 65 targets, 47 receptions, 706 yards, 2.61 Y/RR and two touchdowns. The optimizer isn't sleeping on Goedert. He has the highest value score for tight ends at DK.
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown was a polarizing player in fantasy football circles. The detractors were diminishing St. Brown's electrifying finish to 2021 as only the product of being the last-man-standing, ignoring that targets are earned. St. Brown will have more target competition since the Lions are healthy and added speedster D.J. Chark, but Week 1 is a chance to use St. Brown in DFS before his detractors wake up.
ARSB got out of the blocks slow but cranked it up starting in Week 4. Among receivers targeted at least 40 times from Week 4 through Week 18, St. Brown was 19th in Yards Per Route Run (1.99 Y/RR), 13th in targets (106), tied for eighth in receptions (84), 13th in receiving yards (869) and tied for 16th in touchdown receptions (five). It's impossible to fake what ARSB did last year.
Game: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -3.5
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Patriots Analysis: The Patriots are a fade in Week 1. The combination of Bill Belichick, Joe Judge and Matt Patricia replacing Josh McDaniels for running the offense doesn't inspire confidence.
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins quickly snatched Chase Edmonds up in free agency. He's a talented pass-catching back who can rip chunk runs. Edmonds averaged 3.6 receptions and 25.9 receiving yards per game in 2021. He might show off his pass-catching chops this week. The Patriots ceded the eighth-most receptions (94) and fourth-most receiving yards (826) to running backs in 2021. Further, the Dolphins are favored, creating a chance for a positive game script and a busy day on the ground for Edmonds.
Miami's defense is the best cash-game choice, and they're an excellent GPP pick as a value option. Last year, the Dolphins were tied for eighth in turnovers (26) and tied for fifth in sacks (48). Additionally, they're favored at home. As a result, they have the third-best value score on both DFS sites.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Spread: SF -7.0
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
49ers Analysis: The 49ers are one of the NFL's most intriguing offensive mysteries this year. Dual-threat quarterback Trey Lance is the starting quarterback, and it remains to be seen how he distributes the ball to his talented pass-catchers. Still, Lance's rushing ability is a dimension defenses will have to account for, and the Kyle Shanahan-led 49ers have a knack for successfully pounding the ball down the opposition's throat.
Elijah Mitchell was a revelation as a rookie last year. He averaged 87.5 rushing yards and 12.5 receiving yards per game. Additionally, Mitchell was used as a workhorse, touching the ball 11 times in 14 games, including the postseason. Mitchell had offseason knee surgery and missed the preseason with a hamstring injury, but he returned to practice on Sunday and has been gearing up for the regular season. As long as he doesn't suffer a setback, Mitchell has a chance to tote the rock a ton since the 49ers are seven-point favorites, tying for the largest favorite on the main slate.
Bears Analysis: Chicago's putrid implied total is all you need to know. The Bears are toxic for DFS squads.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
Spread: CAR -1.5
Over/Under: 42.0 Points
Browns Analysis: A Jacoby Brissett-led offense isn't anything to get excited about. Gamers should fade them.
Panthers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey has played only 10 games in the previous two years. That's where the negatives start and end for CMC. The do-it-all back has averaged 6.2 receptions and 113.8 scrimmage yards per game in his career. Fortunately, his receiving prowess hasn't been sapped by injuries. CMC's 2.91 Y/RR was the most among running backs targeted at least 40 times last year, well clear of Cordarrelle Patterson's 2.24 Y/RR in second place.
Basically, CMC is a cheat code in full-point point-per-reception (PPR) formats, such as DK's scoring format. Therefore, CMC is a no-brainer pick in cash games and an excellent pick in GPPs on DK, where he's projected as the RB1 with the best value score. He's also a stellar option on FD, where he's projected as the RB2 with a matching value score.
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals could crank up the pace and passing volume this year. However, they probably don't need to show their hand against the overmatched and Trubisky-led Steelers. The spread is ideal for a favorable game script for Joe Mixon.
Cincinnati's lead back averaged 75.3 rushing yards per game, scoring 20 rushing and receiving touchdowns and chipping in 2.6 receptions and 19.6 receiving yards per game. In addition, he trounced the Steelers last year, rushing for 255 yards and two touchdowns on 46 carries in two games. He also wasn't the only back to shred them, evidenced by Pittsburgh allowing the second-most rushing yards (2,054) to running backs and ranking 27th in rush defense DVOA.
Even if the Bengals don't ratchet passing to a new level in the opener, Ja'Marr Chase proved he didn't need a high volume of targets to eviscerate the opposition. Among receivers targeted at least 40 times, he was seventh with 2.51 Y/RR. He was also fifth in receiving yards per game (85.6) and 10th in Intended Air Yards (1,623). The prolific rookie is a sensational sophomore now, and we project him as the WR2 in scoring on the main slate at DK and FD.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: GB -1.5
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Packers Analysis: This is one of the best games to stack this week. Aaron Rodgers, the back-to-back reigning NFL MVP, will have to adjust to life after Davante Adams. Fortunately, he's played well when Adams has missed time. Regardless, he's a somewhat volatile pick until he shows he's still a fantasy force with a revamped and young receiving corps. But, of course, speculating on Rodgers can payoff in GPPs since he's an elite talent who's torched the Vikings. Last year, he spun it for 385 yards and four touchdowns in Week 11, then 288 yards and two touchdowns in Week 17.
Dillon has been a pleasant surprise in the passing game after rarely receiving looks in the passing game in college, and Jones is a legitimate weapon who's moved around the formation. According to PFF, Jones aligned 7.0% of his passing snaps in the slot, 7.0% inline and 14.2% wide last year. Further, out of 51 backs targeted at least 35 times, including the postseason, Jones was tied for 12th in Yards Per Route Run (1.52 Y/RR) and Dillon was 14th (1.51 Y/RR).
Jones and Dillon also have a good matchup on the ground. Minnesota was 25th in rush defense DVOA in 2021. It's also worth mentioning Jones' phenomenal splits without Adams. In seven games without Adams since 2019, Jones has averaged 67.1 rushing yards, 6.7 targets, 5.1 receptions, 55.4 receiving yards, 21.6 Air Yards and 1.21 touchdowns per game.
Jones and Dillon are exciting selections as standalone plays or part of a game stack. The algorithm likes them, too. Jones has the RB7 value score at DK and is tied with Dillon for the RB8 value score on FD. Finally, Dillon has been the closer if you expect the Packers to smash the Vikings. Last year, Dillon carried the ball 54 times to only 33 attempts for Jones when the Packers led by at least seven points.
The receiving room is a mystery, and the best bet is probably a rotation with multiple wideouts. However, Allen Lazard is trending towards missing Week 1 after missing practice on Thursday.
Matt LaFleur said earlier we'd see later if Allen Lazard would practice.
Romeo Doubs generated buzz in the offseason and flashed in the preseason. Out of 70 receivers with at least 10 targets in the preseason, Doubs was 21st with 2.10 Y/RR, hauling in eight receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns. The rookie also improved his PFF receiving grade every year in his four-year college career and was a vertical weapon, sporting a 14.5 aDoT for his career. Doubs' lid-lifting ability is ideal for hitting homers and delivering for DFS gamers, even if he has a modest Target Share in the opener.
Vikings Analysis: First, Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn are only included on the table as double-stack choices with the stars of the table, Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins. In other words, Thielen or Osborn are moon-shooting picks for a Cousins' double-stack with Jefferson, especially in a game stack with Jones, Dillon or Doubs as a bring-back pick.
Earlier this week, I wrote about Cousins as an FD value for numberFire, and I'm enamored with Cousins' dome stats. According to the dome stats for Cousins listed at Pro-Football-Reference, he's averaged 264.39 passing yards per game, tossing 74 touchdowns and only 20 interceptions in 36 games. Now, he's no longer dragged down by dinosaur Mike Zimmer. Instead, former Rams' offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell is his head coach, infusing new life into the offense. Thus, there's a compelling case to hop on Cousins in tournaments before the Vikings showcase a newly explosive offense.
Finally, Jefferson is projected as the WR1 at both DFS platforms, owning the WR1 value score at FD and tying for the WR2 value score at DK. As a result, he's the crown jewel at receiver. According to StatHead, Jefferson's 91.4 receiving yards per game through his first two seasons were the third-most for a wide receiver who played at least 10 games since the NFL merger in 1966. Finally, Jefferson was first in Target Share (29.1%) and Intended Air Yards (2,218) last season. The dude is a certified stud.
Game: New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
Spread: TEN -5.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Giants Analysis: Game-script-proof running backs are few and far between in 2022. However, Saquon Barkley fits the bill. According to the FantasyPros snap counts, Barkley played at least 84% of New York's snaps in three of four games before suffering a fluke ankle injury in Week 5 in 2021.
Barkley's another year removed from reconstructive knee surgery, and he'll get a massive lift from Big Blue's decision to replace the trio of incompetent coaches Joe Judge, Jason Garrett and Freddie Kitchens with offensive-minded Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka. Including Barkley's good and bad years through his four-year career, he's had per-game averages of 66.8 rushing yards, 4.3 receptions and 33.7 receiving yards. There's a lot to like here. Moreover, if Barkley recaptures the magic from his first two years in the NFL, he won't sniff this salary again in 2022. So, being proactive and hopping on an every-down back we project for the RB2 value score at DK and RB3 value score at FD is exciting.
Kadarius Toney has been an enigma, but he flashed jaw-dropping ability around injuries and mediocrity. First, Toney was 11th out of 101 receivers targeted at least 40 times in the regular season with 2.14 Y/RR as a rookie. The athletically-gifted receiver also commanded targets when he was on the field, evidenced by earning a target on 27.0% of his routes. Toney's target-per-route-run percentage was higher than Pittman's (22.3%), Tee Higgins's (22.4%), Tyreek Hill's (26.5%) and CeeDee Lamb's (21.7%) mark last year, to add perspective.
Big Blue's passing-game pecking order is unclear. Sterling Shepard is working back from tearing his Achilles in December. In addition, ESPN staff writer Jordan Raanan said Kenny Golladay "has been running routes this summer with the stiffness of a mannequin." As a result, there's an opportunity for Toney to skyrocket to the top of the passing-game hierarchy. The algorithm is a fan of Toney on DK this week, ranking him as tied for the WR4 in value score there.
Titans Analysis: Derrick Henry is the notable omission for the Titans. Fading King Henry can go horribly wrong. However, Tennessee's offense might be a tire fire this season after they traded Brown to the Eagles and replaced him with a rookie, Treylon Burks, who's garnered negative headlines throughout the offseason.
Additionally, Henry was wildly inefficient in his return from foot surgery. The bulldozing runner ran 20 times for only 62 yards in a playoff loss to the Bengals. Further, Henry's inefficiency reared its ugly head before his injury, rushing for 154 yards on 57 carries in his final two games in the regular season before getting injured, good for a pathetic 2.70 yards per carry. Finally, while Henry backers celebrated his surge in passing-game usage early in the season, Henry had only five targets in his final five games in 2021-2022. Yikes. As a result, there's a valid case for fading Henry. Fingers crossed, this decision doesn't backfire.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: LAC -3.5
Over/Under: 52.0 Points
Raiders Analysis: Adams is an awesome real-life addition for the Raiders. Still, after sitting out the entire preseason, there might be an adjustment to catching passes from his former college teammate Derek Carr instead of multi-time MVP Rodgers.
As a result, Hunter Renfrow is an intriguing cheaper option with an established rapport with Carr. The shifty slot wide erupted for 6.1 receptions per game, 61.1 receiving yards per game and nine touchdowns last year. He was also tied for 20th in Yards Per Route Run (1.94 Y/RR) among receivers with at least 40 targets. Finally, even though Renfrow is primarily a slot, he also played 35.6% of his passing snaps aligned wide, and Greg Cosell said he doesn't believe Renfrow will be only a slot in new head coach Josh McDaniels' offense.
Thus, Renfrow is a sweet piece of a projected AFC West shootout as a one-off pick or bring-back to a Chargers stack.
Chargers Analysis: First, let's take a macro look at an exciting offense. According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers played at the sixth-fastest situation-neutral pace in 2021. Additionally, they were a pass-happy offense. Per Sharp Football Stats, the Chargers tied for the fourth-highest pass rate (61%) in neutral game scripts.
Justin Herbert thrived in the offensive environment passing for 294.9 yards per game with 38 touchdowns. Keenan Allen continued to hum along, with 6.6 receptions per game, 71.1 receiving yards per game and six touchdowns. So, they're both nifty picks. In fact, Herbert is projected as the QB2 at both sites with a matching value score at FD.
Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams were excellent, too. Moreover, they enjoyed role changes under new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Ekeler has been one of the NFL's elite pass-catching backs throughout his career. However, Lombardi finally unleashed him in the red zone. According to the FantasyPros red zone stats, Ekeler parlayed 46 rushes and 15 targets inside the 20 into 11 rushing and seven receiving touchdowns. Overall, Ekeler was tied for the NFL lead with 20 rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Ekeler truly has the upside to lead running backs in scoring this week, and he's projected as the RB4 on FD and RB3 at DK, tying for the RB3 value score at the latter.
Williams also thrived in Lombardi's offense. The big-bodied receiver was no longer used as only a deep threat. Excluding Williams' injury-limited rookie campaign, his lowest aDoT before last year was 15.6 yards downfield. Last season, he had a 12.0-yard aDoT. Targeted on higher-percentage throws, Williams had career-highs of 1.97 Y/RR, 4.8 receptions and 71.6 receiving yards per game. He also scored nine touchdowns, the second-highest mark in his career.
Joshua Palmer is a GPP dart. He rotated with Jalen Guyton as the No. 3 receiver for the Chargers last year as a rookie. Palmer emerged late last year and is emerging as the clear-cut third receiver this season. In three games (Week 14, 16 and 18) in which Palmer played at least 60% of the offensive snaps, he had 20 targets, 14 receptions, 154 receiving yards and three touchdowns. So, Palmer was rock-solid when he played last year, and a growing role makes him a helpful punt in a probable shootout.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: KC -6.0
Over/Under: 53.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs will look different this year, but Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are still arguably the best players at their respective positions. Last year, Mahomes was fifth in passing yards per game (284.6) and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (37). He's projected as the QB3 at both DFS outlets, with the QB3 value score at FD.
Kelce has aged like a fine wine, continuing to roast defenses. Including the playoffs, out of 35 tight ends with at least 40 targets, Kelce was seventh with 1.92 Y/RR. Further, he averaged 8.3 targets, 6.1 receptions and 74.9 receiving yards per game, with 12 touchdowns in 19 contests. He may be asked to carry a heavier load in the wake of the Chiefs trading Hill. Kelce is projected to finish as the TE2 at DK and FD, with the TE2 value at the former and the TE3 value at the latter. I'm more bullish than the algorithm and believe he'll lead the position in scoring in Week 1 in an uptempo between the third-fastest (Chiefs) and seventh-fastest (Cardinals) situation-neutral offenses in 2021.
The pecking order behind Kelce is muddied. In fact, it will probably be a committee approach.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes sends out an apology in advance to Fantasy Football folks. He says "it will be a different guy every week" at the WR position having a big game.
I've been banging the drum for fading JuJu Smith-Schuster, which starts in Week 1. His apologists have handwaved his lack of production away as entirely Ben Roethlisberger's fault, but that doesn't pass the sniff test compared to the other receivers for the Steelers.
Still, if the Chiefs rotate wideouts, going for the gusto with field-stretchers is intriguing. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a vertical weapon. According to PFF, MVS's 18.2 aDoT was the deepest among receivers targeted at least 40 times in the 2021 regular season. He's drawn the ire from Rodgers for mistakes, but a change of scenery to another MVP-caliber quarterback and offensive genius, Andy Reid, could benefit MVS this year.
Justin Watson is an entirely speculative GPP dart based on a steady drumbeat for him in the offseason. I analyzed him as a value option on FD for numberFire, and I'm doubling down with an endorsement on DK as well. Watson received offseason and preseason reps with the first team, and he even caught a deep ball from Mahomes in a preseason contest.
The underrated part of this play by Mahomes is the anticipation and trust he has for Justin Watson to be in recognizing and attacking the void. His head isn't even around and the ball is already out when Mahomes is getting hit. Perfect placement. #JacobsEyeInTheSky#Chiefspic.twitter.com/LKgHNhUrxi
Finally, Jerick McKinnon was Kansas City's best back during the 2021 playoffs. He's shown the ability to work as their passing-down back and could fill that role in the opener. McKinnon reeled in 14 receptions in three playoff games for 165 yards, one touchdown and 1.49 Y/RR on 17 targets. Jet was also more effective as a runner than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, rushing for 150 yards on 34 attempts versus 96 yards on 13 attempts for CEH. Sadly, the floor is low for McKinnon since Kansas City's backfield is unsettled, but he's a defensible GPP choice on DK's full-point PPR platform.
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals' pass-catching corps is severely depleted. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended, and Antoine Wesley, Rondale Moore and Ertz are banged up. Wesley is out, and Ertz and Moore are trending in that direction.
As a result, Marquise Brown, A.J. Green and rookie Trey McBride are among the last players standing. Hollywood Brown had career-highs last year for receptions per game (5.7) and receiving yards per game (63.0). He also snared six touchdowns. This year, he rejoins former college teammate Kyler Murray. So, they have some previous chemistry. He's the most explosive pass-catcher for the Cardinals and the best bring-back for a Chiefs stack.
Green and McBride are also viable options at opposite ends of their career. Green's career is winding down, but he bounced back from the dead in his first year for the Cardinals in 2021. His 1.60 Y/RR was adequate, and Green averaged a respectable 3.4 receptions and 53.0 receiving yards per game. Admittedly, the veteran isn't what he once was, but he had two games north of 100 receiving yards and three scoring a touchdown last season. So, Green might have something left in the tank.
Finally, McBride was the 2021 John Mackey Award winner, an honor bestowed upon college football's best tight end. In his senior campaign, he erupted for 90 receptions and 1,121 yards in 12 games for Colorado State. Additionally, McBride had PFF's highest receiving grade among tight ends targeted at least 40 times, and he was fifth with 2.78 Y/RR. McBride was also used as a modern-day mismatch weapon, playing wide on 10.5% of passing snaps, in the slot for 20.2% of them and aligning inline for 69.3% of passing snaps. The Cardinals thought enough of McBride to spend the 55th pick in the NFL Draft on him, and he could receive a baptism by fire in NFL action because of the lack of healthy receiving options.
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Josh is a savvy, grizzled veteran in the realm of make-believe sports. He's thoroughly experienced playing in season-long re-draft leagues, keeper formats and daily games. His fantasy advice for baseball and football has been found at many locations around the internet. He's finished in the top 10 accuracy scores among experts here, at Fantasy Pros, in three of four years competing with his colleagues including a first-place finish in 2012.
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