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NFL Week 14 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2022)

NFL Week 14 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2022)

Welcome to week 14 and the last bye-apocalypse of the season. This is a 10-game main slate due to the number of teams missing, so finding the values is crucial for those hoping to win some money this Sunday.

Last week’s article had some hits, identifying the QB7, WR6, WR9, and TE8. It also had a couple of misses, including both running backs. Unfortunately, misses are part of the process. Let’s get into this week’s research and identify some good values the board has to offer.

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN) $6,100 vs. DET

Through 12 games, Kirk Cousins is averaging 16.9 DK points per game and has five QB1 finishes. After a rough outing last week against a very stout New York Jets defense, Cousins is set to get a free class in remedial defensive coverage this week against the Detroit Lions.

The Lions allow the most fantasy points to the quarterback position this season. On average, they’re allowing 264.5 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. Despite that, they put up points, keeping the back-and-forth facet of the matchup intact and forcing Cousins to drop back to pass in an effort to keep up.

With a 51.5 over/under per BettingPros, this game has shootout potential, and if weapons like Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and T.J. Hockenson could all have big games, it starts with Cousins. Cousins is a high-floor tournament option in a plus matchup.

FanDuel

Jared Goff (QB – DET) $7,100 vs. MIN

The over/under on this matchup should put this game, and all of its pieces, in play for DFS this weekend. Goff was in serious consideration for this article last week. He went off for 340 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns on his way to his first 20-plus point performance since October 2nd and a QB4 finish for the week.

The recipe for this week is not uniquely different. The Vikings defense allows the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the third-most to wide receivers. As mentioned above, in a shoot-out potential type of game, this is a game to target for DFS purposes. Goff has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of his last five games and has a full complement of weapons around him. He is definitely in play at his salary.

Running Backs

DraftKings

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL) $6,700 vs. HOU

Despite the myriad of running backs on bye this week, there are some really running backs available and some really good matchups to exploit. Tony Pollard breaches this gap and joins the two together.

Over the last five weeks, Pollard has been the RB3 overall in PPR scoring formats. In that stretch, he has the sixth-most rushing yards (346), the eighth-most receiving yards (138), and five combined touchdowns.

If all of that was not attractive enough, he draws a Texans run defense that is allowing an average of 144.2 rushing yards and 28.5 receiving yards per contest. They’re allowing 1.2 rushing touchdowns and surrendering the most fantasy points to the position.

Yes, Ezekiel Elliot is splitting work with him, but it has been no secret that Pollard has been the more productive back. In a great matchup with a proven track record of involvement, burst, and fantasy points, Pollard can be trusted for DFS purposes.

FanDuel

D’Onta Foreman (RB – CAR) $6,900 vs. SEA

Handling lead-dog duties since Christian McCaffrey was traded, Foreman has shown the ability to handle prodigious workloads. He has handled 15 or more carries in four of his last six games and 20 or more in three of those. During that same span, he has rushed for over 100 yards four times.

The Seahawks allow the second-most fantasy points and 112.7 rushing yards on a per-game average. They’re also allowing 1.2 touchdowns to running backs. On a per-game basis, the Seahawks allow 25.2 FD points to running backs.

Foreman checks the boxes for both volume and matchup despite offering little as a receiver. He has also been the primary ball carrier inside the 10-yard line and has had four rushing touchdowns since assuming the leadership role in this backfield.

With safe volume, touchdown upside, and a good matchup, Foreman can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) $6,600 vs. TEN

Honestly, the last time I mentioned Kirk as a great value player, he served up a stinker. If he does it twice, I will begin to take it personally. And it is worth mentioning there is a caveat to this play: Trevor Lawrence. Per Friday’s practice reports, it is looking likely that Lawrence will suit up for their tilt versus the Titans. Being part of the 1:00 P.M. set of games, his status will be updated early enough to pivot if required.

Over the last five weeks, Kirk has been the Wr9 in PPR scoring. During that stretch, he has accumulated 331 receiving yards and three touchdowns and is averaging a healthy 19.4 fantasy points per game.

The Titans are far better at defending the run than the pass, and with Derrick Henry on the other side, points are to be expected. The Titans allow 192.3 receiving yards and 1.4 touchdowns to the position on a per-game average.

Monitor pregame status for Trevor Lawrence, and if he is good to go, Kirk should be in lineups as a value play with a friendly rostership percentage.

FanDuel

Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN) $6,500 vs. KC

There is not a lot of confidence in starting too many pieces from this Denver Broncos offense. Jerry Jeudy should be on the radar for players who want to take a stab at a receiver with a low rostership percentage and a bump in opportunity. Granted, this is a GPP contest play and should probably be avoided in cash games.

Courtland Sutton has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury, leaving Jeudy and Kendall Hinton to operate as the primary targets for a struggling Russell Wilson. Jeudy saw four targets in his first game back from a two-week absence and caught all four for 65 yards.

This week, the Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs, a division rival with a friendly secondary to attack. They’re allowing the fourth-most points to the position and surrendering 167.8 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per contest.

The expectation is that Patrick Mahomes and company will establish an early lead, forcing Wilson to throw more which benefits Jeudy. It’s not the sexiest pick at the position, but for those looking for that one-off piece that could make a difference in a tournament, Jeudy is at least interesting.

Tight Ends

DraftKings

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) $6,500 vs. PIT

Yes, this is right at the top of the tight-end salary food chain, and Lamar Jackson is doubtful to play. Questions are understandable. Hear me out here.

Tyler Huntley appeared in seven games last season, and Andrews was an absolute beast during this stretch. For the sake of reference, here are the splits.

Variables With Tyler Huntley With Lamar Jackson
Games 7.0 10.0
PPR Points 19.5 16.5
Targets 9.9 8.5
Receptions 7.3 5.6
Receiving Yards 87.7 74.7
Receiving TD 0.6 0.5
Target Share 28.6 25.4

*splits courtesy of DLF

Andrews averaged three more points per contest with Huntley under center. So, there is a bump we can historically count on. The matchup against the Steelers is neither the most exploitable nor the worst. They’re allowing 50.8 receiving yards per contest to the position.

The Ravens have little to work with from a pass-catcher standpoint, so Andrews will remain the primary read and heavily involved. For those looking for the contrarian play, Isaiah Likely is only $2,700.

FanDuel

Cade Otton (TE – TB) $4,700 vs. SF

Let’s open with some honesty. The matchup is not ideal. The 49ers are easily one of the most complete defenses in the league right now. However, Otton is uniquely interesting this week when all the pieces are added up.

Running the ball against the 49ers will prove to be a fruitless endeavor, so dial-up Tom Brady for 45-plus pass attempts in this one. The target tree is wide between Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Julio Jones, who should all command some defensive attention. That leaves the short to intermediate targets to the likes of Cade Otton and Rachaad White/Leonard Fournette.

Otton is averaging 4.7 targets per game over his last nine games, including a head-scratcher in Week 12, where he simply disappeared. There will be targets available for him, and he’ll command much less of the coverage, assuming the offensive line can somewhat protect Brady.

The matchup is filthy, meaning Otton is likely to be less rostered than the current projection, and there is a path to meaningful targets. He’s a low-cost tournament option with at least a floor and an obscure path to some upside.


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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.

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