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Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 9 (2023 Fantasy Football)

Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 9 (2023 Fantasy Football)

Several of my intros last season involved a rundown of all the changing quarterback situations, because they were constantly changing. That has been the case a lot less this year, but for Week 9 we’re back at it again, with bunch of QB situations that warrant checking in on.

  • Minnesota Vikings: The biggest news of the weekend is that Kirk Cousins suffered a torn ACL in Sunday’s game against the Packers and is done for the season. This is a serious downgrade to the Vikings who bounced back from an 0-3 start to reach 4-4, with Cousins playing well the whole time. It’s a bit of awkward timing that this article comes out just a few hours before the trade deadline. The immediate backup is Jaren Hall, a fifth-round rookie out of BYU, but the Vikings may trade for someone today.
  • Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have benched Joshua Dobbs, who started the first 8 games, wherein the Cardinals went 1-7. Kyler Murray is getting close to returning from the Torn ACL he suffered in Week 14 of last season. It appears that this week is a little too soon for that, which means Clayton Tune will start. Tune was a fifth-round draft pick out of Houston this year.
  • Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford sprained his UCL in his thumb on his throwing hand last week, while scoring a 2-point conversion as a receiver. It appears that this won’t be a long-term injury, but could cause him to miss this week’s game against the Packers. Brett Rypien is the backup, while rookie Stetson Bennett remains on the non-football injury/illness list, likely for the season.
  • New York Giants: Last week, Tyrod Taylor went to the hospital with a rib injury. He was discharged Monday and is considered week-to-week, and apparently has a chance of playing this week. Tommy DeVito, an undrafted rookie, was his backup and played quite badly in relief outside of his rushing touchdown – the two QBs combined for -9 passing yards, the lowest mark of the century so far. Daniel Jones has missed three weeks with a neck injury and may miss more, but the Giants sure need a QB right now.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett left last week’s game with a rib injury, and is considered a game time decision for Thursday Night Football this week. Mitchell Trubisky is the backup.

Defenses to Stash for Week 10+

Before we get to my projections for Week 9, here is a list of teams of interest if you want to plan ahead, either as bench stashes, or as streamers worth holding on to.

  • Buffalo (@ CIN this week, then vs DEN, vs NYJ) – I probably don’t need to tell you not to use Buffalo against the Bengals this week, or that you shouldn’t drop them. But you’ll be rewarded for that bench spot, with a good Broncos matchup and a great Jets matchup the following weeks.
  • Dallas (@PHI this week, then vs NYG, @ CAR, vs WAS) – Like the Bills, the Cowboys are a good defense with a bad matchup this week, that you should hold rather than drop. They get three great matchups in a row in weeks 10-12.
  • Indianpolis (@ CAR this week, then @ NE) – The Colts are a reasonable two-week streamer, with the Panthers this week and Patriots next week, before their Week 11 bye.
  • Miami (@KC this week then a bye next week, followed by vs LV, @ NYJ, @ WSH in weeks 11-13) – The Dolphins will be riding the bench for 2 weeks, because they have a bye after this week’s Chiefs game in Germany. But after that they get three excellent matchups in a row.
  • NY Giants (@ LV this week, then @ DAL, @ WAS, vs NE). If you’re playing the Giants this week, they might be worth holding on the bench while they play Dallas, because they get back-to-back good matchups facing Washington in Week 11 and New England in Week 12.
  • Seattle (@ BAL this week, then vs WAS next week). The Seahawks are a reasonable bench stash this week if you want to target their Week 10 matchup against the Commanders.

Week 9 D/ST Projections

There are four teams on bye this week (DEN, DET, JAC and SF), there are more good defenses than bad offenses in that group, so while there are a fair number of good options for streaming this week, there will also be more options as teams who don’t normally stream look to fill-in for the JAC or SF defenses. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.

Rank Team Vs. Vs. QB PA Sacks Turnovers FPTS Rost%
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1 CLE ARI Clayton Tune 14.75 2.5 1.1 7.53 70%
2 ATL MIN Jaren Hall 16.5 3.0 1.2 7.48 33%
3 NE WAS Sam Howell 18.5 3.3 1.2 7.39 27%
4 LAC @NYJ Zach Wilson 19.25 3.2 1.2 7.19 27%
5 NO CHI Tyson Bagent 16.75 2.3 1.3 6.81 67%
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
6 GB LAR Matthew Stafford 18.25 2.8 1.2 6.95 18%
7 IND @CAR Bryce Young 20.75 3.3 1.2 6.81 8%
8 LV NYG Tyrod Taylor 17.75 2.9 1.1 6.81 13%
9 PIT TEN Will Levis 16.5 2.3 1.2 6.72 59%
10 TEN @PIT Kenny Pickett 19.5 2.9 1.1 6.57 2%
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
11 BAL SEA Geno Smith 18.75 2.6 1.2 6.53 94%
12 NYG @LV Jimmy Garoppolo 20.25 2.7 1.3 6.51 6%
13 HOU TB Baker Mayfield 18.75 2.4 1.2 6.41 10%
14 ARI @CLE Deshaun Watson 22.75 3.3 1.1 6.39 1%
15 MIN @ATL Desmond Ridder 21 2.9 1.1 6.30 9%
16 WAS @NE Mac Jones 21.5 2.4 1.2 5.93 27%
17 BUF @CIN Joe Burrow 25.75 3.2 1.2 5.84 98%
18 CAR IND Gardner Minshew II 23.25 2.9 1.1 5.84 5%
19 CIN BUF Josh Allen 22.75 2.4 1.2 5.65 26%
20 PHI DAL Dak Prescott 21.5 2.4 1.1 5.63 98%
21 NYJ LAC Justin Herbert 22.25 2.3 1.2 5.58 92%
22 TB @HOU C.J. Stroud 21.25 2.3 1.1 5.52 32%
23 LAR @GB Jordan Love 21.25 2.0 1.2 5.47 18%
24 SEA @BAL Lamar Jackson 24.25 2.5 1.2 5.43 64%
25 KC MIA Tua Tagovailoa 24 2.1 1.2 5.04 87%
26 DAL @PHI Jalen Hurts 24.5 2.4 1.1 5.01 96%
27 CHI @NO Derek Carr 24.25 1.9 1.2 4.86 2%
28 MIA @KC Patrick Mahomes II 26.5 2.0 1.2 4.41 70%

Matchups

  1. CLE vs ARI: The Browns will probably be facing rookie QB Clayton Tune in his first NFL start, though there’s a chance they see Kyler Murray instead. Either way this is a great matchup for one of the best defenses in the league.
  2. ATL vs MIN: The Vikings might trade for a QB today, and if they do, he might start this week. If not, we’ll see Jaren Hall in his first full NFL start. Last week he entered the game in the fourth quarter with a 14-point lead, and succeeded in keeping it despite a fumble. So we really haven’t seen much of Hall in the NFL, but at this point there isn’t much reason for a defense to be scared. The Falcons’ defense should be considered a lock against Hall, and a viable choice against any QB who might be making their first start with a new team.
  3. NE vs WAS: Sam Howell had his best game of the season last week. After taking sacks at a record pace from some of the worst defenses in the league through 7 weeks, he only went down once against the Eagles, who are supposed to have the best defensive line in the league. Without pass rushers to keep him down, the fact that the rest of his game is pretty good was able to shine through. Even so, I’m going to need to see at least a couple more games like that to take Howell off the list of must-start defense targets. He is still on pace to set the single-season sacks taken record, after all.
  4. LAC @ NYJ: Jets QB Zach Wilson was able to capitalize on a missed field goal with game-tying field goal drive with just 24 seconds on the clock and no time outs, wherein he completed back-to-back 29-yard passes and spiked the ball with 1 second on the clock. The 13-10 overtime win was exciting at the end, but the New York Jets kind of exciting doesn’t involve a lot of points. Zach Wilson still leads an underpowered offense and has high sack potential, which makes him a great matchup for a competent defense like the Chargers.
  5. NO vs CHI: Bears QB Tyson Bagent was impressive in his first NFL start against the Raiders in Week 7, but he did not replicate that success against the Chargers last week, when he threw two interceptions and led the team to just 13 points. He will get at least one more start as Justin Fields recovers from a dislocated thumb in this throwing hand.
  6. GB vs LAR: With his thumb injury it’s not clear if Matthew Stafford will play this week, or if we’ll see Brett Rypien. I’m currently expecting Stafford, who has shown flashes of his old self but has overall been underwhelming this season. I expect it not to be one of his better days if he’s playing through a throwing hand injury, and Rypien would be a slight upgrade (from the defense’s perspective).
  7. IND @ CAR: The Bryce Young-led Panthers finally got their first win last week (they were the last team to do so), but that only required 15 points against the Texans. This is still a low-powered offense and Young has high sack potential (he has taken 4+ in 4 of this 6 games), so the Panthers are a viable target for a middling defense like Indianapolis.
  8. LV vs NYG: This is one to keep an eye on. If Tyrod Taylor of Tommy DeVito gets the start, this is a good enough matchup that I’ll start a defense as weak as the Raiders. If Daniel Jones is able to return this week, I’m not interested.
  9. PIT vs TEN: Second-round pick Will Levis was a breath of fresh air for Titans fans in his first NFL start, because he understands that “feed DeAndre Hopkins” is a winning strategy. After that performance Levis is not in the category of rookie quarterbacks I’m excited to target, but the Vegas-implied point projection of 16.5 – tied for lowest this week – is too low to ignore entirely. If he plays like we expect from a rookie QB in his first road start and that line is anywhere near accurate, the Steelers could be a good play. But if you think Levis is the truth and want to fade this one, I won’t argue.
  10. TEN @ PIT: It remains to be seen if Kenny Picket will start this week following his rib injury, or if we’ll see Mitchell Trubisky. Either way this is a highly dysfunctional offense under Matt Canada, and thus a reasonable target for the Titans’ defense.

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