With 2024 best ball contests long since settled, it can be easy to focus on the here and now. However, when we look back at past contests, it can be helpful to look at who has the best and worst advance rates.
Advanced rates can help us gain perspectives on what kind of players we want in each round. Advance rates referenced are taken from Underdog’s Best Ball Mania contest.
Best Ball Advance Rates
Round 1
The first round wasn’t a classic, as only three players advanced above the average rate of 16.7%. Ja’Marr Chase led all players in the contest with an advance rate of 50%. He was by far the best player you could have selected in any round. Chase scored 318 points in this half-PPR format, 60 more than the next nearest first-round player. He had five individual games over 25 points. Quite simply, a cheat code in all formats.
Following Chase, Justin Jefferson (21.9%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (21.8%) were the only others with positive advance rates in this round. On the opposite side of the scale, Christian McCaffrey‘s 4% advance rate was a killer blow to all teams who drafted him. For context, Breshad Perriman had an advance rate of 5.3%, No player had a worse advance rate than McCaffrey’s. Four scoreless games provided zero startable weeks for McCaffrey. It’s somewhat surprising that one in 25 teams that drafted him still managed to advance.
Round 2
The second round was similarly dominated by a single player. Saquon Barkley‘s 48.3% advance rate was second only to Chase’s. Barkley’s 2,283 total scrimmage yards were 300 more than any other player, resulting in his yards per team attempt of 2.10 dwarfing all other running backs.
Barkley was faded for a myriad of reasons that all turned out to be incorrect, leaving egg on the faces of many. Now the question turns to whether he can repeat it in 2025 on the back of 436 rush attempts in 2024.
After Barkley, only De’Von Achane had a positive advance rate at 23.1%, despite Miami being a volatile team in 2025. On the bottom end of advance rates for round two, Marvin Harrison Jr. finished with a disappointing 8.6% advance rate after the incredible hype surrounding him resulted in a season best described as middling. Chris Olave (9.9%) and Brandon Aiyuk (9.5%) both also had advance rates below 10%.
Round 3
This round saw four players post positive advance rates. None so dominant as the first two rounds, but Derrick Henry (35.4%), Kyren Williams (24.7%), Mike Evans (20.4%) and Cooper Kupp (19.10%) were all value-add players for advancing. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr. Tank Dell all came in with advance rates below 11%.
Perhaps Pittman’s 8.5% advance rate is the worst of the lot, as Diggs and Dell both suffered season-ending injuries that changed the course of their seasons. Pittman played 15 games but finished as the WR44, scoring only three touchdowns and ranking 33rd among wide receivers in receptions with 63.
Round 4
The tale of this round was quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes all drafted in this range. Jackson dominated and posted an advance rate of 30%, the second-highest rate of any quarterback in 2024. Jackson scored 35 more points than Josh Allen, who advanced at a rate of 18.7%, slightly behind Jalen Hurts (19.5%).
All three dual-threat signal-callers were far better picks than Mahomes, whose 9.9% advance rate was the second-worst rate in this round. This is a further reminder that drafting non-dual-threat quarterbacks in the duel-threat range doesn’t tend to work out.
Isiah Pacheco‘s 8.1% advance rate was the worst of the round, while Tee Higgins (23%) was the only non-quarterback to post a positive rate.
Round 5
The worst pick of round five was Anthony Richardson, who advanced at a rate of 7.2%, failing to pay off his 58th overall average draft position (ADP). Richardson had the single-worst advance rate of any quarterback in the contest, resulting in him falling off some draft boards entirely for 2025.
This was a good round for running backs, with the only two drafted, Josh Jacobs (29.9%) and James Cook (19.6%), both advancing with strong numbers. Jacobs overcame doubters, once again, to be a workhorse on a run-heavy Packers team, while Cook led all players with 17 touchdowns. The fact that Cook didn’t advance stronger is a reflection of the fact that he ranked 24th among running backs in total scrimmage yards. If he could improve that area and hold the touchdowns, he could be top talent at the position.
Mark Andrews disappointed some in 2024, but his 20.1% advance rate was a solid number, thanks to his 11 touchdowns. He was a far better pick than Dalton Kincaid (12.1%), whose 3.4 receptions per game, combined with only two touchdowns, led to him having the 43rd-worst advance rate among tight ends.
Round 6
In round six, there was a similar theme with tight ends, as George Kittle had the second-highest rate of the round (22.5%), while Kyle Pitts landed at 10.9%, with only Evan Engram, Josh Whyle, Jared Wiley and Kylen Granson recording lower rates among the tight ends.
Joe Mixon headlined this round with a massive 26% advance rate on the back of his highest yards per game (72.1) total and most touchdowns since 2021 (12). Kenneth Walker scraped by at 17.1%. Brian Thomas had a 17.1% advance rate, which was the second-best by a wide receiver in this round, behind Chris Godwin‘s 19.1%, despite him not playing from Week 7 onwards.
CJ Stroud‘s 8.8% advance rate was the third-lowest among quarterbacks, making him a difficult click in his third year in the league. Stroud might prove a better fantasy asset this year, now that he’s not being drafted in a range that demands upside.
Round 7
Five players advanced at a positive rate in the seventh round, with Alvin Kamara (30.4%), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (23%), David Montgomery (22.8%), Jordan Addison (22.7%) and Jameson Williams (18.4%) highlighting the great value available in this round.
Kamara, in particular, was a stand-out value, despite failing to reach 1,000 rushing yards for the eighth year in a row. Smith-Njigba had a second-year breakout and now finds himself the top dog in Seattle, while Montgomery’s numbers could have been stronger if he hadn’t gotten injured late in the season. On the bad end of the scale, Kyler Murray (13.1%), Keon Coleman (13%) and Evan Engram (10.9%) were all disappointments.
Round 8
In round eight, Joe Burrow was the standout pick, boasting a massive 39% advance rate, which led all quarterbacks. Thanks to the Bengals still failing to upgrade their defense, he could again be a strong fantasy option in 2025.
Meanwhile, Brock Bowers cast aside doubts about him being a rookie and posted the second-highest rate among tight ends (26.3%), on his way to breaking all kinds of records. With an ADP putting him in the second round in 2025, it’ll be harder for him to repeat this. Courtland Sutton also advanced at a very strong rate, casting aside doubts about the Broncos’ offense and Bo Nix with a 28.7% advance rate, the fourth-highest among wide receivers. Running backs James Conner (21.4%) and D’Andre Swift (19.6%) rounded out those with a positive advance rate.
Round 9
One of the more balanced rounds, every player advanced at a rate of at least 13%, but no higher than 22%. Jayden Daniels was the best selection (21.4%), leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards, and only scoring fewer rushing touchdowns than Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. The doubts about his small frame seem silly in hindsight.
Khalil Shakir was the only wide receiver with a positive advance rate at 21.2%, despite just five games over 15 PPR points. Shakir also had seven games at or below 11 points. Thankfully for those who drafted him, he executed well enough to help them advance. Zack Moss (13%) and Joshua Palmer (14.4%) were the worst selections in this round, but both missed time with injuries that impacted their numbers.
Round 10
Three players hit the 20% or higher mark in this round, with Chase Brown (27%) the sixth-highest running back overall, joined by Jakobi Meyers (26%) and Dallas Goedert (20%). Brown ended up being one of the best value picks at running back in the entire draft, averaging 20.6 PPR points per game from Week 9 onwards, with 23.6 touches per game.
Goedert is perhaps a more surprising name to see here, only playing in nine games and finishing as the TE15 or worse in four of those nine games. Goedert advanced positively because while he wasn’t Brock Bowers, who helped you tremendously, he didn’t necessarily harm you.
Rashid Shaheed had a 17.5% advance rate, 0.8% above the baseline, despite not playing since Week 6 when he injured his meniscus. Shaheed had been the WR10 up to that point with four games over 16 PPR points. That went a long way. On the negative end of the scale, Trey Benson (9.8%) and Tyjae Spears (8.7%) were the worst picks you could have made in this round.
Best & Worst Late-Round Picks
Best Late-Round Advance Rates
After round 10, when things became trickier, there were plenty of hits. Chuba Hubbard headlined all players with a 31.5% advance rate, with eight top-12 weekly finishes and scoring over 20 points on six occasions.
Jerry Jeudy peaked at the right time, averaging 7.4 points in Weeks 1-9 before averaging 17.2 for the rest of the season. Erick All scored 25.8 half-PPR points in 2024, but still advanced at a rate of 20.2%. His 209 ADP meant he was a cheap piece for your roster who didn’t harm you, even if he never helped you.
Worst Late-Round Advance Rates
The players with the worst advance rates outside of the top 10 rounds include mostly undrafted names. MarShawn Lloyd is the main name of note in this range, having had an ADP of 153.6. Lloyd had one carry in the preseason before injuring his hamstring and missing time until Week 2, when he injured his ankle and went on injured reserve (IR).
Following this, Lloyd then dealt with appendicitis, which curtailed his rookie year. There were plenty of reasons Lloyd failed, but in another world, it’s easy to see how he could have been a better pick than he was.
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