The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -2.5, O/U 47
• Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Josh Jacobs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Last year, Jared Goff‘s 6.9% passing touchdown rate (third-best in the NFL) carried him to a QB7 finish in fantasy points per game. His previous best finish in fantasy points per game was QB11 in 2023. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked second in yards per attempt, 12th in CPOE, and fourth in highly accurate throw rate. Goff could have a field day against the Packers’ secondary if their pass rush doesn’t get home. Last year, the Packers were 16th in pressure rate. Yes, that will go up with Micah Parsons on the field, but I don’t know if he’ll be an every-down player as he’s dealing with a back issue and missed the preseason and training camp with the contract holdout. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Green Bay allowed the 13th-highest success rate per dropback and ninth-highest CPOE, and now they are fielding a downgraded secondary. Their starting trio of corners with Keisean Nixon (2024: 66.3% catch rate and 97.5 passer rating allowed), Nate Hobbs (2024: 67.4% catch rate and 96.3 passer rating allowed), and Javon Bullard (2024: 84.2% catch rate and 119.8 passer rating allowed) doesn’t exactly strike fear in a quarterback’s heart. If Goff’s new look offensive line can keep him clean, he should shred this secondary.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Jameson Williams finally broke out last year as the WR23 in fantasy points per game. He did so while only commanding a 17.6% target share, having a 20% target per route run rate, and 11 red zone targets. Those are solid but not overwhelming numbers. Williams did rank 15th in separation, 23rd in yards per route run, and 35th in first downs per route run, so there’s also some hope that he can take another step in 2025. The Green Bay corner room could yield a big day to Williams, but the coverage he will see most of the day doesn’t really play to his favor if his role stays the same as last season. Last year, in Weeks 11-18, Green Bay utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.6%). Last year, against two high, Williams had a strong 2.20 yards per route run, but he wasn’t the team’s go-to option against two high, which was Amon-Ra St. Brown (30% target per route run rate). Williams had only a 20% target per route run rate and 0.075 first downs per route run. He could eat into St. Brown’s workload against two high this year if he can continue with that strong per-route efficiency, so it’s not inconceivable that he takes another step in this department in 2025. Williams should have no issues shredding Keisean Nixon (2024: 66.3% catch rate and 97.5 passer rating allowed) and Nate Hobbs (2024: 67.4% catch rate and 96.3 passer rating allowed) this week.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Out of the cloudy receiving picture in Green Bay, Romeo Doubs is the wide receiver I want to draft this season. On the surface, there doesn’t appear to be much cause for being over the moon for Doubs, but hear me out. Last year, he finished as the WR47 in fantasy points per game, but he was the clear leader of the Green Bay Packers receiver room, and underneath the surface, he POPS in a number of metrics that matter. Doubs was the only receiver for Green Bay that eclipsed a 75% route share (team-leading 76.7%) while leading the team in target share (18.7%) and first-read share (23.6%). He posted a solid 1.90 yards per route run while ranking 25th among 85 qualifying receivers in first downs per route run (0.104). Here’s where things get really interesting: Doubs, last year among 112 qualifying receivers, ranked 11th in separation and second in route win rate. Ok, bear with me here. I’m gonna pull out my best Charlie Day (aka Andrew Erickson) impression here and connect some dots. New Detroit defensive coordinator, Kelvin Shepard, has been on this Lions staff since 2021, coaching the linebackers. I don’t see him being elevated into the head defensive position and rocking the boat when he has been helping curate their defensive system for the last few years. This leads me to think that Detroit will remain single high leaning despite the departure of Aaron Glenn. Over the last three years, Detroit has utilized single high 54.5-57.4%. If we zoom in further, in Weeks 1-12 last year, when Carlton Davis was the healthiest, this defense had the ninth-highest single high rate (56.1%). Why does this matter? Because Doubs was the team’s clear leading option against single high last year. He led the team with a 21.4% target share, 27.5% first read share, and 0.122 first downs per route run. Doubs should lead the team in targets this week. The Lions’ secondary is talented, but Doubs’ talent is also being slept on. He’ll tangle with Terrion Arnold (2024: 64.2% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating allowed) and D.J. Reed (2024: 58.3% catch rate and 91.7 passer rating allowed) all day.

Matthew Golden (WR)

Matthew Golden should be Romeo Doubs‘ running mate as the only two “full-time” wide receivers in the Green Bay offense this season. Golden finished his collegiate career with an 18.7% target per route run rate and 1.85 yards per route run. Neither of those metrics screams “future alpha WR1” in the NFL, but I could easily be wrong. This week, I think Matthew Golden will operate in the same role they utilized Christian Watson in last year against single high. Ok, bear with me here. I’m gonna pull out my best Charlie Day (aka Andrew Erickson) impression here and connect some dots. New Detroit defensive coordinator, Kelvin Shepard, has been on this Lions staff since 2021, coaching the linebackers. I don’t see him being elevated into the head defensive position and rocking the boat when he has been helping curate their defensive system for the last few years. This leads me to think that Detroit will remain single high leaning despite the departure of Aaron Glenn. Over the last three years, Detroit has utilized single high 54.5-57.4%. If we zoom in further, in Weeks 1-12 last year, when Carlton Davis was the healthiest, this defense had the ninth-highest single high rate (56.1%). Why does this matter? Last year, Watson had the highest aDOT on the team (19.0) and ranked second on the team with a 25% target per route run rate against single high. I’m not sure Golden gets fed a ton of targets this week, but they should be high-value targets down the field. If he connects on one or two, he’ll have a pretty nice stat line. The Lions have a talented secondary as Golden will match up against Terrion Arnold (2024: 64.2% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating allowed) and D.J. Reed (2024: 58.3% catch rate and 91.7 passer rating allowed) all game, but he has the speed to get behind the defense this week. Reed and Arnold are mid-4.5 guys. That’s a far cry from 4.29 speed.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

Sam LaPorta sustained an ankle injury last year that haunted him for much of the season before he exploded down the stretch, looking closer to full health. Overall, he finished the TE8 in fantasy points per game, but it was very much a Jekyll and Hyde season. In Weeks 1-10, he had a 64.8% route run rate with a 10.9% target share, 40.1 receiving yards per game, a 12.6% first-read share, and 0.095 first downs per route run as the TE16 in fantasy points per game. After Week 11, people got to see the version of LaPorta that they were paying up for in draft season. In Weeks 12-18, he had a 77% route run rate with an 18.6% target share, 51.4 receiving yards per game, an 18.5% first-read share, and 0.100 first downs per route run as the TE7 in fantasy points per game. After his health had improved, Laporta faced the Packers in Week 14 last year and finished with five grabs and 54 receiving yards as the TE10 for the week. He could easily have another productive outing again to open the year. Last year, Green Bay allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the 11th-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

**I can’t start Isaac TeSlaa in Week 1 as the talented rookie could be splitting routes with Kalif Raymond. TeSlaa may get a full-time route share in his first NFL game, but with no teams on byes and everyone’s fantasy rosters relatively healthy, it’s a risk not worth taking.**

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jordan Love (QB)

Jordan Love wasn’t able to follow up on his massive 2024 breakout campaign with another successful season. Injuries played a sizable role in this, as Love sustained a sprained MCL in Week 1 and a groin injury in Week 8. In Weeks 4-17, after his return from the knee injury, he was the QB14 in fantasy points per game. Overall, he finished 15th in CPOE, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate. With the lower half ailments, he only amassed 83 rushing yards as well after piling up 247 in the previous season. It all went off the rails as the Packers tried to protect Love, as they had the second-highest neutral rushing rate behind only the Eagles. The Packers will pass more in 2025. The Lions’ pass defense at full strength could give Love fits out the gate. Last year, Detroit’s defense was ravaged by injuries. In Weeks 1-6, with Carlton Davis and Aidan Hutchinson healthy, this pass defense was nasty, allowing the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest CPOE. Yes, Davis is gone, but the Lions replaced him with D.J. Reed (2024: 58.3% catch rate and 91.7 passer rating allowed), who is a stud. Love could have some hiccups in Week 1, but he has the talent around him to overcome them if Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden can make some big plays. The floor is low for Love this week, though, if Doubs and Golden don’t come through.

David Montgomery (RB)

David Montgomery remained the Lions’ early down hammer and preferred goal-line option last year when healthy. Before he was sidelined in the back half of the 2024 season with a knee injury (Weeks 1-14), he was the RB11 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.3 touches per game and 83.1 total yards. Last year, he ranked 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. When healthy, he dominated the inside the ten-yard line work with 33 carries to Jahmyr Gibbs‘ 16. It’s wonderful to be the goal-line king in an offense that led the NFL in points per game and red zone scoring opportunities per game last year. While Ben Johnson‘s departure will have an impact on Detroit, this offense should still sit somewhere in the top 5-10 scoring offenses in the NFL. Montgomery has a rough matchup on the ground in Week 1. Yes, I know the Packers just traded away Kenny Clark, but they should still field a strong run defense in 2025. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, they held rushers to the eighth-lowest success rate, the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest missed tackle rate. Montgomery needs a touchdown to pay off this week.

????WRs who required surgery for a Jones fracture:
Marvin Jones, Julio Jones, Sammy Watkins, Deebo Samuel, Van Jefferson, Dez Bryant, James Washington

????WRs who were able to play through a Jones fracture without surgery:
…

I couldn’t find any.

Jayden Reed tweet. https://t.co/yxJYKz4c38

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 30, 2025

Jayden Reed (WR)

Jayden Reed was a fantasy darling entering the 2024 season after posting a WR26 in fantasy points per game season and ten total touchdowns. His stock came crashing down last year (WR38) as Green Bay continued their stubborn usage of a wide receiver room by committee, and the passing volume dried up. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Reed ranked 15th in yards per route run, but he was outside the top 40 receivers in target share (52nd, 15.7%), receiving yards per game (41st, 50.4), first-read share (49th, 19.9%), and first downs per route run (51st, 0.080). Unless you’re a hyper-efficient receiver, like Reed was in 2023, it’s difficult to produce when you’re only running a route on 69.3% of dropbacks (64th). His usage looks like it won’t change this season. If anything, I’m worried that he will be even more limited this season. Reed is reportedly dealing with a Jones fracture and is attempting to play through it. This is unheard of. I can’t plug him into any lineup until we see how this goes for him and his route share. I worry that he will be severely limited in his route share out the gate (maybe for the entire season). Sit Reed in every format this week.

Tucker Kraft (TE)

Last year, Tucker Kraft stepped up as Green Bay’s clear present and future starting tight end. The South Dakota State alum finished as the TE14 in fantasy points per game in the Packers’ run-heavy offense. Green Bay loves its committee approach with the passing game, so it’s tough to see Kraft becoming a high-end target earner in this offense, but he has the talent to do so. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Kraft ranked 20th in target share and 27th in first read share, but he posted top 12 marks in receiving yards per game (12th-best), yards per route run (seventh), missed tackles forced (third), and yards after the catch per reception (first). Green Bay did feed him an 18.5% designed target rate (second-best among tight ends), but he wasn’t the first option on many passing plays. As much as I love Kraft, I’m not bullish on his outlook this week against Detroit. Last year, in two meetings with this defense, he averaged only 3.5 receptions and 37.5 receiving yards. The Lions were tough on tight ends all year, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards and the 14th-fewest yards per reception.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams

• LAR -3, O/U 44
• Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Nico Collins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

Last year was disastrous for Stroud as he tumbled from the QB7 in fantasy points per game to the QB28. Everything that could have gone wrong did. His offensive line imploded. Nico Collins was in and out of the lineup, while Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs were lost to season-ending injuries. Stroud didn’t help matters with the fifth-highest time to throw and the 15th-highest pressure-to-sack ratio. Stroud will operate behind a retooled offensive line in 2025 that honestly couldn’t be worse than what he dealt with last year. The skill player cabinet has been restocked. Stroud should post solid numbers in Week 1 against a secondary that, in Weeks 10-18 last year, allowed the fourth-highest success rate per dropback, sitxth-highest EPA per dropback, and the 11th-most passing touchdowns.

Nick Chubb (RB)

With Joe Mixon out, Nick Chubb will begin the season as Houston’s lead back. Last year, before he was lost again to a foot fracture, he looked like a shell of his former self. Chubb only had a 2% explosive run rate, a 10% missed tackle rate, and 1.96 yards after contact per attempt. These numbers are all basement-level efficiency metrics. Hopefully, he improves upon these numbers in 2025, but with his lengthy injury history at age 29, it’s far from certain. Chubb is a touchdown-dependent flex to open the year. He could post a nice stat line to begin the year. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, the Rams allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game and the sixth-highest missed tackle rate while having the fourth-lowest stuff rate. The addition of Poona Ford in the offseason will help these numbers. The question is how much?

Davante Adams (WR)

Davante Adams proved last year that he still has plenty left in the tank. Last season with the Jets, among 79 qualifying wide receivers, Adams ranked 22nd in separation and 27th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). While in New York, he was only on pace for 176 targets, 104 receptions, and 1,320 receiving yards as the WR7 in fantasy points per game. We’ll see if he or Puka Nacua gets shadow coverage treatment from Derek Stingley Jr. Stingley Jr. shadowed six times last year, following a receiver on 61.1-68.8% of their routes. He held four of those wide receivers to less than 50 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Even if Stingley Jr. doesn’t follow Adams, this isn’t an easy matchup. Houston allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers last year. Adams has the talent and the quarterback to overcome a bad matchup, but it will be a challenging week.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Not much will jump off the page when you look at Dalton Schultz‘s 2024 season on paper. He was the TE27 in fantasy points per game with only eight red zone targets and three TE1 weekly scoring finishes. He drew only a 14.7% target share with 1.16 yards per route run and a 15.2% first-read share. With all that said, if the Rams are horrid against tight ends in 2025 like they were last year, he is a streaming option in Week 1 if you are spinning the tight end roulette wheel. Last year, the Rams allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Before tailing off at the end of last season, with Puka Nacua back in the huddle, Matthew Stafford was performing as the QB11 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he was ranked tenth in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, and 11th in highly accurate throw rate and fantasy points per dropback. Stafford’s back issues are hanging over his head like a black cloud. We’ll see if he can hold up for the entire season once the hits start piling up, but he sounds like he’s good to go for Week 1. Stafford has a mighty test in Week 1 against a talented Houston pass defense. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Houston forced the most interceptions, allowed the third-lowest success rate per dropback, and the sixth-lowest CPOE. As if that wasn’t bad enough, overall last year, the Texans also were 13th in pressure rate and fifth in sacks. Don’t start Stafford in Week 1 unless you’re out of QB2 options in Superflex.

Christian Kirk (WR)

Christian Kirk has been ruled out for Week 1 (hamstring).

Jayden Higgins (WR)

Jayden Higgins is the starting outside wide receiver on the depth chart opposite Nico Collins, but there are reports that Xavier Hutchinson will start over Higgins Week 1. I don’t know if that will be actually true, but we have to add it to the equation when discussing Higgins as a fantasy option in Week 1. Higgins was an underrated player throughout the entire draft process, ranking 27th and 16th in yards per route run and first and 18th in receiving grade during his final two collegiate seasons. He’s a sure-handed receiver who will become a trusted safety blanket for C.J. Stroud after posting a 2.2% drop rate or lower in each of the last three seasons and a 55.6% contested catch rate in college. Last year, in a small snippet (Weeks 15-17) with Darious Williams and Akhello Witherspoon as full-time starters again for the Rams, they allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jaylin Noel (WR)

With Christian Kirk out, Jaylin Noel will be the Texans’ starting slot receiver for Week 1. Last year, Noel ranked in the top 30 in receiving grade and yards per route run while sitting second in deep receiving yards among FBS wide receivers. He’s a deep league flex only as he’ll have a tough matchup in his first NFL game. Last year, the Rams allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers (Kirk 85.7% slot in the preseason). He’ll see Cobie Durant (2024: 56.9% catch rate and 72.3 passer rating allowed) for most of the day.

Tyler Higbee (TE)

Last year, Tyler Higbee spent almost the entire season recovering and ramping up from ACL and MCL injuries. He had a brief cup of coffee in Weeks 16-17, playing 26-29% of the snaps before ramping up further in Weeks 18-20. In Weeks 18-20, Higbee had an 18.8% target share, 2.43 yards per route run, a 25.7% first-read share, and 0.123 first downs per route run. These are all elite usage marks, but I don’t expect them to continue this season with Cooper Kupp exchanged for Davante Adams and Terrance Ferguson added to the equation. Ferguson will likely be a part-time player in his rookie season with a gradual ramp-up, with Ferguson taking over as the team’s starting tight end in 2026 when Higbee leaves as a free agent. Higbee should be a full-time player in 2025. Higbee will be a streaming option this year at times, but not in Week 1. Last year, Houston held tight ends to the 14th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receptions.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -1, O/U 50.5
• Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• Lamar Jackson
• Derrick Henry

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Rashod Bateman (WR)

Rashod Bateman ran hotter than the sun in 2024 as the WR45 in fantasy points per game. He had seven weekly finishes as a top 36 wide receiver and five inside the top 20. Bateman operated as Baltimore’s deep threat (seventh-highest aDOT) and logged nine total touchdowns (ninth-best) despite only eight red zone targets and 15 deep targets. Some of this is just related to the fact that Bateman is incredibly talented, ranking fourth in separation and 13th in route win rate among 112 qualifying receivers. Buffalo was volatile against deep passing last year, allowing the tenth-highest deep adjusted completion rate while ranking 16th in deep passer rating. Last year, Buffalo was fifth in two high rate (55%). In 2024, against two high, Bateman led the team with 2.43 yards per route run and was second with 0.108 first downs per route run. Both are impressive marks. If you need an upside flex in Week 1, Bateman’s your guy. Just know that the floor is quite low. Those impressive metrics will do battle with a secondary that allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers last year.

Mark Andrews (TE)

Last year, Andrews was the TE7 in fantasy points per game, but it was heavily influenced by his 11 receiving scores as he ranked only 14th in receptions and ninth in receiving yards among tight ends. His recovery from tightrope surgery impacted his early-season effectiveness and usage. In Weeks 1-9, he was the TE16 in fantasy points per game, posting an 11.3% target share, an 18% TPRR, 1.77 YPRR, 32.1 receiving yards per game, a 13.9% first-read share, and 0.110 first downs per route run. After Week 9, every discernible per-route metric that we should care about improved for Andrews as he posted an 18.1% target share, a 24% TPRR, 2.31 YPRR, 48 receiving yards per game, an 18.9% first-read share, and 0.127 first downs per route run as the TE5 in fantasy points per game. Last year, Buffalo was fifth in two high rate (55%). In 2024, against two high in Weeks 10-18, Andrews had a 27% target per route run rate, 1.90 yards per route run, and 0.117 first downs per route run. All of those marks are above average to elite. Andrews could have a decent volume-fueled day against a defense that allowed the 12th-most receptions to tight ends last year, but also the 11th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Dalton Kincaid dealt with injuries last season (knee/shoulder) that derailed his season after Week 9. Last year, in Weeks 1-9, he was the TE15 in fantasy points per game, which is a massive disappointment for a player with his talent in a scoring-rich environment in Buffalo. During that stretch, among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranked sixth in target share (19.2%) and first-read share (21.3%), 18th in receiving yards per game (36.9), 17th in yards per route run (1.71), and 15th in first downs per route run. His market share in the Bills offense is encouraging, but his per-route efficiency is concerning, as well as his 64.9% route per dropback rate (19th). I don’t know if we see a role change for Kincaid in 2025, but Kincaid could see a heavy workload in Week 1 against a defense that allowed the ninth-most receiving yards and the tenth-most receptions to tight ends last year.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

James Cook (RB)

Well, in 2024, James Cook finally answered the question, “What could happen if Cook could score more than two rushing touchdowns in a season?” After back-to-back seasons with only two rushing scores, Buffalo loaded him with the seventh-most carries for a back inside the ten-yard line, and Cook responded with 16 rushing touchdowns (18 total touchdowns) as he finished as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 46 qualifying backs, Cook ranked 20th in explosive run rate, 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Don’t expect Cook to get off to a marvelous start this week. Baltimore’s run defense is legit. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, they allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Zay Flowers (WR)

Over the last two seasons, Flowers has been the WR31 and WR32 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 85 qualifying receivers, he ranked 14th in target share (24.1%), 27th in receiving yards per game (62.3), 17th in yards per route run (2.35), 18th in first-read share (30%), and 20th in first downs per route run. Last year, Buffalo was fifth in two high rate (55%). In 2024, against two high, Flowers led the team with a 23% target per route run rate, but he had only 1.53 yards per route run and 0.068 first downs per route run. Don’t expect a ton from Flowers this week against a secondary that allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers last year.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Last year, Khalil Shakir broke out as the Bills’ number-one receiver. Now, this breakout didn’t lead to a wonderful eruption of fantasy points, but it was a solid season that offered hope that his 2025 season could be even better. He finished as the WR33 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 1-6, Shakir garnered a 16.3% target share with 49.8 receiving yards per game, 2.62 yards per route run, a 16.9% first-read share, and 0.126 first downs per route run. Shakir’s yards per route run and first downs per route run in that sample were elite, but his market share numbers were middling at best. Well, the Bills noticed Shakir was balling out on a per-route basis and increased his role. In Weeks 7-17, Shakir saw a 23.1% target share with 57.2 receiving yards per game, 2.15 yards per route run, a 27.9% first-read share, and 0.086 first downs per route run. The efficiency numbers took a dip, but he was featured more heavily while also seeing eight red zone targets in that ten-game stretch (only two touchdowns). Shakir looks headed for a down week, even if his ankle is 100%. Last year, Baltimore allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. He’ll have to deal with Marlon Humphrey all day (2024: 62.1% catch rate and 62.9 passer rating allowed).

Keon Coleman (WR)

Keon Coleman had a disappointing rookie season in which he missed four games with a wrist injury. He finished as the WR55 in fantasy points per game, operating as Buffalo’s man coverage option and deep threat (sixth-highest aDOT, 15.3). He ranked outside the top 40 wide receivers in target share (14.4%, 59th), yards per route run (1.87, 41st), first-read share (19.9%, 50th), and first downs per route run (59th, 0.074). Coleman had a 27% target per route run rate (TPRR) versus man coverage, while only a 14% TPRR versus zone coverage. Among 71 qualifying receivers, he ranked 37th in separation and 44th in route win rate against man coverage. Those are solid numbers, but not spectacular. To open the season, it’s a good schematic matchup for Coleman, but a tough one with the corners he’ll have to compete with. Last year, Baltimore ranked 12th in single high rate (55.9%) and 11th in man coverage rate (31.6%). Coleman’s usage versus man has already been discussed, but against single high, he had a 22% target per route run rate, 2.49 yards per route run, and 0.105 first downs per route run. Now for the negative. He’ll have to deal with Nate Wiggins (2024: 53.5% catch rate and 74.8 passer rating allowed) and Jaire Alexander (2024: 56% catch rate and 79.9 passer rating allowed) all game, and a secondary that allowed the fifth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. I lean more in the negative direction with the lean that Coleman isn’t burning one of the best perimeter corner tandems in the NFL, but I could be wrong here and underestimating his possible growth in year two.

Joshua Palmer (WR)

Joshua Palmer‘s 2024 surface stats don’t jump off the page. In the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps last year, he had a 13.7% target share, 1.57 yards per route run, a 17.2% first-read share, and 0.075 first downs per route run. It’s when we pop open the hood and peek at his per-route metrics that things get interesting. Last year, among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Palmer was one of the best separators in the NFL, ranking 16th in separation and 12th in route win rate. Among 71 qualifying receivers, he ranked fifth in separation and route win rate against man coverage. If Josh Allen wants to test Baltimore’s man coverage, Palmer could be his preferred target and not Keon Coleman. Last year, Baltimore ranked 11th in man coverage rate (31.6%). The Ravens’ secondary, especially against perimeter wide receivers, is nasty. Palmer will have to tussle with Nate Wiggins (2024: 53.5% catch rate and 74.8 passer rating allowed) and Jaire Alexander (2024: 56% catch rate and 79.9 passer rating allowed) all game, and a secondary that allowed the fifth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Palmer will have plenty of flex-worthy games this season, but this isn’t one of them.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

DeAndre Hopkins, at this stage of his career, offers more real-life veteran/locker-room appeal than fantasy production. Last year, he was a part-time player for both Tennessee and Kansas City, never eclipsing a 65% route share in any week. In ten games, he had less than a 55% route share, so we have to evaluate what he did from a per-route basis only, instead of the raw counting or market share metrics. Among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 52nd in separation and 36th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Among that same sample, he was 47th in yards per route run and 32nd in target per route run rate. Hopkins could be a full-time player, but he could also be the newest version of Odell Beckham for this offense. During Beckham’s tenure with the team, he was a part-time player and operated more situationally for the passing attack. Hopkins is a sit this week to see what his actual role for the offense could be this season.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

• MIN -1.5, O/U 44
• Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Jefferson
• T.J. Hockenson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Aaron Jones (RB)

Jones is coming off a season where he played 17 games for only the second time in his career. He amassed a career-high 306 touches with 1,546 total yards and an RB20 finish in fantasy points per game. Minnesota added Jordan Mason this offseason to take some of the load off Jones, as Ty Chandler wasn’t up to the task as Jones’ running mate. Jones wasn’t nearly as efficient as in previous seasons, but he was still effective, ranking 17th in yards after contact per attempt, 11th in receiving yards per game, and 18th in first downs per route run. Minnesota could lean on its ground game this week. Last year, Chicago allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and had the fourth-lowest stuff rate. They added Grady Jarrett this offseason, but I don’t know if that is enough to slow down the Vikings’ ground attack this week.

Jordan Mason (RB)

Jordan Mason moved from San Francisco to Minnesota in an offseason trade to become Aaron Jones‘ running mate. Mason sustained a shoulder injury and an ankle injury last year. The bum ankle ultimately ended his season. In the brief six games, he played 64% or more of the snaps as the starter for the 49ers, Mason averaged 21.3 touches and 111.8 total yards. He was a top-24 fantasy option at the running back position in four of those six outings and an RB1 in 50% of them. Mason finished top six among running backs last year in explosive run rate (second), missed tackles forced per attempt (sixth), and yards after contact per attempt (third). Minnesota could lean on its ground game this week. Last year, Chicago allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and had the fourth-lowest stuff rate. They added Grady Jarrett this offseason, but I don’t know if that is enough to slow down the Vikings’ ground attack this week. Mason is a decent flex that could easily have a nice fantasy day if he falls into the endzone.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Rome Odunze didn’t come close to producing as many had hoped during his rookie season. He finished as the WR56 in fantasy points per game despite sitting as the WR37 in expected fantasy points per game. Yes, Caleb Williams and target competition were massive problems for Odunze last year. Both of those factors remain prevalent when projecting how his 2025 season could unfold. Last year, among 85 qualifying wide receivers, Odunze ranked 84th in catchable target rate. Woof! His overall numbers didn’t look much better among the same sample of pass catchers, as he was 46th in target share, 50th in receiving yards per game, and 65th in first downs per route run. Those numbers don’t look any better, even if you attempt to account for Williams’ inaccuracy. Last year, Odunze also ranked 78th in separation and 54th in route win rate. If we filter only for catchable targets and exclude screens, Odunze ranked 61st in yards per route run and first downs per route run. With all of that said, he could lead the way for the Bears’ passing attack in Week 1. Last year, Minnesota led the NFL in two high rate (63.6%). Last season, among 101 qualifying receivers, Odunze ranked 40th and 42nd in separation and route win rates against two high. It’s tough to feel great about his outlook in Week 1, lining up against Isaiah Rodgers (2024: 50% catch rate and 85.4 passer rating allowed) and Byron Murphy (2024: 70% catch rate and 79.3 passer rating allowed) all game, but he’s the best on-paper option for Caleb Williams to feed.

Olamide Zaccheaus (WR)

Last year, Olamide Zaccheaus didn’t get a full-time foothold in the Washington offense until Week 16. In Weeks 16-18, he was awesome (69.4% route share), earning a 20.8% target share, averaging 68.7 receiving yards with 2.22 yards per route run and 0.108 first downs per route run. He finished as the WR6, WR13, and WR62 in weekly scoring in this brief stretch. Zaccheaus will open the 2025 season as the Bears’ starting slot receiver. Zaccheaus could start the season off with a bang. Last year, Minnesota led the NFL in two high rate (63.6%). Last season, against two high, Zaccheaus had a stellar 28% target per route run rate and 0.123 first downs per route run against two high. Add in that Minnesota gave up a ton of production to slot receivers last year, and their new nickel (Tavierre Thomas) isn’t a matchup to fear, and we have a perfect storm for Zaccheaus to outperform expectations in Week 1. Last year, Minnesota allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Last season, Thomas defended only five targets, but if we go back to 2023 (his last substantial playing time), he allowed an 82.1% catch rate and 110.6 passer rating in coverage. Zaccheaus is a sneaky flex in Week 1 that offers some enticing upside.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Adam Thielen should open the first few weeks of the season battling T.J. Hockenson for the second spot in the target pecking order in Minnesota until Jordan Addison returns from suspension. Adam Thielen proved last year that he still has something left in the tank. In the nine games last year that he played at least 58% of the snaps, he drew a 19.7% target share while averaging 63.9 receiving yards per game with 2.08 yards per route run with a 25.8% first-read share and 0.094 first downs per route run. Down the stretch (Weeks 12-18), when Bryce Young was revitalized, Thielen was the WR21 in fantasy points per game. Thielen isn’t dust. Not even close. Last year, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 26th in separation. Chicago will feature two high coverage this season. In two of Dennis Allen’s last three seasons with New Orleans calling defensive plays, his defense was top eight in two high usage (seventh & eighth), utilizing it 51.7-52.1% of the snaps. Last year, against two high, Thielen had a 22% target per route run rate, 2.19 yards per route run, and 0.092 first downs per route run. Thielen is a viable flex, especially in PPR formats.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

J.J. McCarthy (QB)

Yes, I know we haven’t seen J.J. McCarthy play outside of an abbreviated preseason sample last year, but I’m a big believer in his talent and Kevin O’Connell to get the best out of him. The Vikings remain loaded with skill players and added to the offensive line this offseason to give their new signal caller all the time in the world to dice up opposing pass defenses in 2025. Sam Darnold (yes, that Sam Darnold) finished as the QB9 in fantasy points per game last year. In his final collegiate season, McCarthy ranked inside the top 12 FBS quarterbacks in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, yards per attempt, adjusted completion rate with downfield throws, and against pressure. McCarthy will have a tough assignment against a new-look Bears pass defense this week. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will install a two-high heavy scheme. In two of his last three seasons with New Orleans, his defense was top eight in two high usage (seventh & eighth), utilizing it 51.7-52.1% of the snaps. This should mesh well with Chicago’s defense. Last year, when utilizing two high, Chicago held quarterbacks to the eighth-lowest CPOE, the third-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Let’s call a spade a spade here. Caleb Williams had a VERY tough rookie season. The ballyhooed savior of the Windy City didn’t exactly have the start to his career that many people hoped for and hyped. Williams was the QB21 in fantasy points per game, which was aided greatly by his legs (seventh in rushing yards among quarterbacks). Williams was the QB12 in expected fantasy points per game, so the disappointment was very real. When we discuss what he did as a passer, the true tragedy becomes apparent. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranked 34th in yards per attempt, 24th in CPOE, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate. Williams had the ninth-highest off-target rate and the second-lowest catchable target rate (only Anthony Richardson was worse). The Bears have added a TON of personnel to help Williams find his footing in year two with offensive line upgrades, a strong play-caller (Ben Johnson), and the additions of Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. Williams looked good in brief preseason action, but we need to see him do it in the regular season. Asking Williams to hit the ground running against a Brian Flores defense in Week 1 is probably asking too much, though. Last year, Minnesota blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL while also ranking sixth in pressure rate. The Vikings also kept quarterbacks in check, giving up the 12th-fewest yards per attempt and passing touchdowns and the second-lowest passer rating.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Last year, D’Andre Swift was the RB21 in fantasy points per game as he soaked up volume. He ranked tenth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, tenth in carries, and 15th in targets among backs. Swift was inefficient every step of the way, ranking outside the top 32 running backs in explosive run rate, yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards per touch. Swift will be running behind a new-look offensive line this year, but he might not find too many open rushing lanes this week. Last year, Minnesota allowed the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Yes, Minnesota lost Harrison Phillips and Jerry Tillery along the defensive line this offseason, but any easy argument can be made that with Jalen Redmond and the additions of Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, they shouldn’t really miss a beat in 2025.

DJ Moore (WR)

D.J. Moore had a rough 2024 season despite still drawing a high-end target share in the Chicago passing attack and finishing 98 receptions as the WR26 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Moore still drew a ton of volume, ranking 13th in target share (24.4%) and tenth in first-read share (31.8%), but his per-route numbers were rough. Yes, Caleb Williams was partially to blame as Moore ranked 55th in catchable target rate, which could partially explain his 1.53 yards per route run (60th), 56.8 receiving yards per game (35th), and 0.068 first downs per route run (67th). It doesn’t, however, wipe away his 76th ranking in separation and 59th standing in route win rate. Last year, Minnesota led the NFL in two high rate (63.6%). Last season, among 101 qualifying receivers, Moore ranked 60th and 68th in separation and route win rates against two high. It’s tough to feel great about his outlook in Week 1 with the coverage matchup and lining up against Isaiah Rodgers (2024: 50% catch rate and 85.4 passer rating allowed) and Byron Murphy (2024: 70% catch rate and 79.3 passer rating allowed) all game.

Colston Loveland (TE)

Ben Johnson seemingly got his Sam LaPorta. I don’t think Colston Loveland is on the same talent plane as LaPorta, and I don’t mean that as shade, but their skill sets are different. Loveland has stellar per-route efficiency and the route-running chops to match, but he isn’t the same mauler after the catch, with only eight missed tackles forced in his collegiate career. Across his final two collegiate seasons, he ranked fifth in yards per route run in both seasons and third and tenth in receiving grade. Loveland’s route share to begin the season (and all year) is a mystery. I don’t think Cole Kmet is just going to disappear, so we could see Loveland’s route share capped, which could make him Dalton Kincaid 2.0. His Week 1 matchup against Minnesota is ok, but it’s not anything to get overly excited about. Last year, Minnesota was 15th in receiving yards and 17th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Loveland is a risky TE2 who could easily overperform or disappoint. The range of outcomes is wide this week.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -8, O/U 47.5
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• A.J. Brown
• CeeDee Lamb

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Dak Prescott (QB)

Yes, I know it sounds crazy, but toss Dak Prescott‘s 2024 abbreviated resume in the trash. Last year, the Dallas offense was a dumpster fire as defenses aimed at taking away CeeDee Lamb, and Dallas didn’t have a counterpunch or run game earlier on. The only thing I will bring up from last year is that Dallas will still rely upon their passing game. Last year, in Weeks 1-8, Dallas ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and tenth in pass rate over expectation. I prefer to take a glass-half-full approach when looking at the Dallas offense in 2025. With Prescott healthy and the addition of George Pickens, we should see a revitalized offense for the Cowboys this season. I think we will get a version of Prescott in 2025 closer to the 2023 model, when he was QB4 in fantasy points per game, seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in CPOE, and sixth-best in highly accurate throw rate. Last year, Philly was no doubt one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing the fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the third-lowest passer rating. They did have some shortcomings last year, though. The Eagles also had the fifth-lowest pressure rate and blitz rate, and with the loss of Josh Sweat and Milton Williams, we’ll have to see if they can improve upon those numbers in 2025. Prescott could have clean pockets in Week 1, where he has time to diagnose Vic Fangio’s defense. Last year, after Week 14 (including the playoffs), the Eagles had the tenth highest rate of two high (54.4%). If we rewind to 2023, Prescott ranked ninth in CPOE, 11th in fantasy points per dropback, and ninth in passer rating against two high. Prescott will have a tall task in Week 1, but he might surprise with a strong QB1 stat line.

Javonte Williams (RB)

The Cowboys put Javonte Williams in bubble wrap during the preseason. He didn’t play a single snap in the preseason, so his expected workload and role remain a mystery. Considering the context of this depth chart, though, I do expect him to be the team’s workhorse out of the gate. Now, projecting him to maintain that role for the entirety of the season is where it gets tricky. It comes down to which version of Williams we get this year. Last season, Williams finished as the RB36 in fantasy points per game. Last year, Williams struggled after Week 8 as he didn’t force a single missed tackle for the rest of the season. His production in Weeks 1-8 offers some hope that we could see a better version of him in 2025. Yes, he hit a wall down the stretch last season, but in the first eight games, among 43 qualifying backs, Williams ranked 13th in missed tackle rate (20% per Fantasy Points Data). The Eagles return most of their run defense from last year, with some changes along the defensive line. Williams could surprise people in Week 1 against a Philly run defense that in Weeks 10-18 last year allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards after contact per attempt.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

Hopefully, you took advantage of DeVonta Smith‘s value in drafts this season. It was criminal. He has finished as a top 20 wide receiver in fantasy points per game in each of the last three seasons (WR15, WR20, WR14), and yet in some leagues, he slipped into WR3 territory. Smith was awesome in nearly every metric last year. He was 11th in target share, 19th in yards per route run, 12th in first downs per route run, 17th in separation, and 11th in route win rate. This is a wonderful opening matchup for Smith, who could hit the ground running to open the season. Dallas’ new defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus, over the last three seasons of coordinating a defense has featured single high with 54.5-60.2% of his defensive snaps while ranking ninth, 14th, and fifth in its usage over that span. Last year, against single high, Smith ranked eighth in separation and fifth in route win rate while posting 2.60 yards per route run, a 31.1% first-read share, and an absurd 0.134 first downs per route run. Last season, Dallas also allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Expect a strong showing against Dallas for Smith.

George Pickens (WR)

He’s FREE! George Pickens has been liberated from quarterback purgatory and will enjoy the best quarterback play of his career in a contract year. Last year, Pickens finished as the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He proved that he could operate as a number one option, ranking 16th in target share (23.9%), 25th in yards per route run (2.18), ninth in first-read share (32%), and 24th in receiving yards per game (64.3, per Fantasy Points Data). His numbers were even better in Weeks 1-13, before his hamstring injury, when he ranked 18th in separation, eighth in yards per route run (2.53), and 25th in route win rate. While I’m high on Pickens’ season-long outlook for 2025, I don’t love this matchup for him out of the gate. Last year, Philly allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the fourth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Yes, they lost Darius Slay in the offseason and replaced him with Adoree Jackson, but this is also a tough schematic matchup for Pickens. Last year, after Week 14 (including the playoffs), the Eagles had the tenth highest rate of two high (54.4%). In 2024, against two high, Pickens had only 1.07 yards per route run and 0.040 first downs per route run. Against two high, among 101 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 59th in separation and 71st in route win rate. Temper your expectations for Pickens this week.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Last year’s disappointing season for Jake Ferguson can be largely attributed to the absence of Dak Prescott. Prescott was lost for the season after Week 8. In Weeks 1-8, Ferguson was the TE12 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 17.9% target share (tenth-best), averaging 43.8 receiving yards per game (tenth-best), and commanding a 19.5% first-read share (ninth-best, per Fantasy Points Data). During this stretch, Ferguson wasn’t an efficient player, ranking 25th in yards per route run and 30th in first downs per route run. Without Prescott, after Week 9, Ferguson didn’t have more than 40 receiving yards in a game for the rest of the season. After Week 8, Ferguson didn’t see a red zone target until the final game of the season. This is a good schematic matchup for Ferguson, but he’ll face a defense that was amazing in defending tight ends last year. Last year, after Week 14 (including the playoffs), the Eagles had the tenth highest rate of two high (54.4%). Last season, in Weeks 1-8 against two high, Ferguson had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.04 yards per route run, and a 26.5% first-read share. Those are all wonderful numbers, but here’s the issue. In 2024, Philly allowed the lowest yards per reception and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Ferguson could overcome the tough matchup with volume or a score.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

Dallas Goedert has finished as a TE1 in fantasy points per game in EVERY season since 2019. Goedert dealt with injuries again last year with a knee issue and a hamstring ailment. When he was on the field and playing at least 60% of the snaps, he produced 11.8 PPR points per game, which would have equaled the TE8 in fantasy points per game last year. In that sample, he earned a 20.2% target share, churned out 55.1 receiving yards per game and 2.23 yards per route run, and garnered a 25.2% first-read share. Among 47 qualifying tight ends last year, those figures would have ranked sixth, fourth, fourth, and third last season. Goedert should have a solid opening to the 2025 season. Dallas’ new defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus, over the last three seasons of coordinating a defense has featured single high with 54.5-60.2% of his defensive snaps while ranking ninth, 14th, and fifth in its usage over that span. Last year, against single high, Goedert had a wonderful 28% target per route run rate, 3.32 yards per route run, and 0.155 first downs per route run. Last season, Dallas allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception and the ninth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• KC -3, O/U 45.5
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Patrick Mahomes

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Last year, Justin Herbert finished as the QB14 in fantasy points per game, but his season was a tale of two halves. Herbert sustained a foot injury in camp and a high ankle sprain in Week 3 that impacted his early-season efficiency. In Weeks 1-6, Herbert was the QB27 in fantasy points per game, averaging 163 passing yards per game with 6.5 yards per attempt and 5.2 rushing yards per game. In Weeks 7-18, all of those numbers improved as he was the QB11 in fantasy points per game. During that span, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked seventh in passing yards per game (254.6), sixth in yards per attempt (8.1), fourth in CPOE, second in hero throw rate, and averaged 23.3 rushing yards. Last season, he was the QB23 and QB19 in weekly scoring against the Chiefs, but one of those meetings was in Week 4 when lower-body injuries hampered him. Last year, Kansas City was a middle-of-the-road passing defense, ranking 16th in CPOE, 17th in passing yards per game allowed, and giving up the 14th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Kansas City had the second-highest two high rate last year (60.9%). Herbert was successful against two high last season, ranking 11th in yards per attempt and 12th in fantasy points per dropback against the coverage. Herbert could outperform expectations in Week 1, especially if Kansas City takes a lead early and forces the Bolts’ hand to lean into a pass-heavy approach.

Omarion Hampton (RB)

Omarion Hampton should be considered the lead back for the Bolts, especially in the early going chunk of the season when Najee Harris‘s workload is up in the air. I know that’s not a shocking revelation considering Hampton’s first-round NFL draft capital and the hype machine around him all offseason. Across his final two collegiate seasons, Hampton ranked 12th and 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th and 26th in elusive rating. Losing Rashawn Slater this season will impact the Bolts’ ground game, which really isn’t up for debate. The question is, how much will it hurt? We’ll see in Week 1 as Hampton will face a stout run defense. Last year, Kansas City allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Hampton should get enough volume to overcome the matchup for fantasy, but don’t expect a ceiling performance to open the season.

Isiah Pacheco (RB)

Last year was another season dinged by injury for Pacheco. He missed a combined ten games with a rib injury and a broken fibula. Once he returned from injury last year in Week 13, he looked like a shell of himself. We should easily toss those numbers out for Pacheco, as he was clearly not fully healthy, and he failed to play more than 46% of the snaps in any game for the rest of the season (including the playoffs). In those games, he had only a 6% missed tackle rate and 1.63 yards after contact per attempt. In 2023, he ranked 11th in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt while posting a 16% missed tackle rate. Last year, in the first game of the season, he played 80% of the snaps with 17 touches and 78 total yards. Pacheco could approach that type of workload, but I expect it to be a tad lower with Kareem Hunt involved on early downs and Brashard Smith stealing routes. Even in a more diluted role, Pacheco is still in a good spot in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Los Angeles allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if the Bolts’ run defense is improved this season, but I have my doubts after the team lost Joey Bosa, Poona Ford, and Morgan Fox in the offseason.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey was amazing in his rookie season. Last year in Weeks 8-18, he was the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in receiving yards per game (89), fifth in yards per route run (2.97), and ninth in first downs per route run (0.127). He did all of that while only ranking 26th in target share (22.9%) and 21st in first read share (29.9%, per Fantasy Points Data). Last season, Kansas City had the second-highest two high rate last year (60.9%). Last year, against two high, McConkey didn’t post amazing numbers with only a 21% target per route run rate, 1.62 yards per route run, and 0.072 first downs per route run despite leading the team with a 22.8% first-read share. McConkey could cede more of the two high work to Keenan Allen this year. His role as the team’s slot receiver is also likely to take a hit with Allen back on the roster. Last year, McConkey had a 69.3% slot rate, which is sure to decline. The real question is how much? This matters a ton for Week 1 in particular. Last year, Kansas City allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Now, I will also say that they were eaten alive by slot receivers (allowing the most fantasy points per game and the 11th-highest PPR points per target last year). If McConkey and Allen rotate in and out of the slot, McConkey can still walk away with a solid day despite my concerns. The big thing that I want to impress here is that there’s a lot of volatility for his outlook this week, so tread carefully.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

With Rashee Rice serving his six-game suspension to begin the season, Xavier Worthy should step right back into the “Rice role” until Rice returns. Last year in that role, in Weeks 13-17, he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game, with a 21.3% target share, 57 receiving yards per game, an aDOT of 6.3, and a designed target rate of 25.6%. In those five games, Worthy had a whopping nine red zone targets. Worthy faces a Chargers’ secondary that had the third-highest two-high rate last year (58.6%). Sadly, last year, even in Weeks 13-17, Worthy wasn’t very effective against two high with only an 18% target per route run rate, 1.0 yards per route run, and 0.016 first downs per route run despite seeing a 20.8% first-read share. It’s tough to get excited about Worthy this week. Last year, the Bolts allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Yes, they have Donte Jackson (2024: 61.3% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating allowed) and Cam Hart (2024: 58.9% catch rate and 90.0 passer rating allowed) on the outside this year, which is a change, so maybe that offers some hope for Worthy. He’s a volume play only this week.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Keenan Allen returns to the Bolts after a one-year dalliance with Chicago. I’ll lead this off by saying that we can toss Allen’s yards per route run and first downs per route run in the trash, as every Bears wide receiver’s efficiency metrics were tanked last year by Caleb Williams‘ struggles. Allen finished as the WR31 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, he didn’t have any issues, still earning volume at a high rate, ranking 20th in target share (23.5%) and 26th in first-read share (28.8%). His route running and separation skills remained solid. Among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 45th in separation and 40th in route win rate. Last year, his slot rate dipped slightly to 54%. I expect that to creep back up toward the 60% mark in Los Angeles. Last year, the Chiefs were ripped in half by slot receivers (allowing the most fantasy points per game and the 11th-highest PPR points per target last year). Allen could have a nice volume-fueled day against the Chiefs. Last season, Kansas City had the second-highest two high rate last year (60.9%). In 2024, against two high among 101 qualifying wide receivers, Allen ranked 41st in separation and 48th in route win rate. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but they are still quite solid. Allen is a strong flex in Week 1, especially in PPR formats.

Travis Kelce (TE)

Last year, Travis Kelce finished with the fewest receiving yards of his career since becoming a starter in 2014. He still gobbled up targets, but he was hopelessly inefficient last year, and entering his age-35 season, I’m not sure if that changes. Last year, he finished as the TE6 in fantasy points per game, which was aided by Andy Reid’s pass-happy offense and Kelce having the third-most targets among tight ends. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, Kelce ranked fourth in target share (22%), fifth in receiving yards per game (51.4), and first in red zone targets, but that’s where the good news stops, as he was also 18th in yards per route run (1.62), 40th in yards after the catch per reception (3.86), and 18th in first downs per route run. Kelce has a tough matchup to open the season. Last year, the Chargers allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game, the second-lowest yards per reception, and the fewest receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Najee Harris (RB)

After weeks of wondering whether he would make it back for Week 1, Najee Harris is a go against the Chiefs. While his status is now known, his role in the offense isn’t set in stone. His workload remains a mystery, especially early in the season. This isn’t the week to explore Harris’s upside as a flex in a tough matchup without any idea of what his touch count could look like. Last year, Kansas City allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Marquise Brown (WR)

Hollywood Brown dealt with an ankle issue during camp and the preseason. He looks likely to suit up for Week 1, but it’s tough to muster any level of excitement to toss him into a flex spot in a lineup. Last year, Brown suffered an SC joint injury and was limited to only two games in the regular season, where he played 27-40% of the snaps. In those two games, he was hyper-targeted to get him involved, seeing a 19% target share and 43% TPRR (unsustainable). The postseason gave us a better indication of where he is in his career when he had a 70% route share (three games) and sadly only had a 15.7% target share, 0.67 yards per route run, 14.5% first-read share, and 0.040 first downs per route run. He’s likely not 100% healthy right now, so we could see his routes limited in Week 1. Even if I knew he was a full-time player against the Bolts, I can’t say that I would be telling anyone to plug him into a fantasy lineup.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

It’s impossible to have any confidence in flexing Quentin Johnston in Week 1. I don’t see Ladd McConkey or Keenan Allen in any danger of leaving the field, but Johnston could see his routes cut into by Tre Harris or KeAndre Lambert-Smith (or both). For you deep league degens, I’ll still discuss his outlook, though. Johnston had two up and down meetings with Kansas City last year, even as a full-time player with a WR89 finish in the first go around and a kinder WR22 finish in Week 14. Last season, Kansas City had the second-highest two high rate last year (60.9%). In 2024, against two high, Johnston had only a 19% target per route run rate but he managed 2.37 yards per route run rate and a 21.6% first-read share. Johnston could turn only a handful of targets into a decent day, but it’s impossible to bet on him in most leagues because of this volatility, when we haven’t seen how the Bolts will deploy their wide receivers after McConkey and Allen.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*