Fantasy Football Player Notes

Daniels was a league-winning value last year in his rookie season as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. If we remove the two games in which he failed to play more than 50% of the snaps, he averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game and had 0.61 fantasy points per dropback. Those two figures would have ranked second and fourth among quarterbacks last year. In those 15 full games, Daniels averaged 58.2 rushing yards per game, which would have led all quarterbacks last year by 4.4 yards per game. He also wasn't a pushover from the pocket, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, 11th in CPOE, and sixth in catchable target rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Daniels can improve in the passing department, though, which is incredibly scary for anyone not drafting him as he was 24th in highly accurate throw rate and 17th in off-target rate. Daniels has QB1 overall upside this season with a mid QB1 floor.

In Jayden Daniels' rookie season, Terry McLaurin posted the best fantasy finish of his career as the WR14 in fantasy points per game. He was fueled by a career-high 13 receiving touchdowns while ranking seventh in deep targets and 18th in red zone targets among wideouts. Among 85 qualifying receivers, he was 32nd in target share (21.7%), 26th in yards per route run (2.17), 12th in end zone targets (13), 30th in first-read share (26.8%), and 17th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). We saw McLaurin's role grow as Daniels became more confident down the stretch and Washington leaned into their aerial attack. In Weeks 1-12, McLaurin had a 20.4% target share and a 25.4% first-read share. In Weeks 13-18, those numbers rose to 24.6% and 30%. McLaurin is a rock-solid WR2 this season who could approach WR1 status if Daniels takes another step.

Brian Robinson is a solid if unspectacular early-down back. The real appeal is that he plays in an ascendant offense with what should be a pretty good offensive line. Robinson also benefits from playing with QB Jayden Daniels, since mobile QBs tend to boost the efficiency of their running backs. But Robinson doesn't offer much as a pass catcher -- he had 20 receptions in 14 games last year -- and will give way to Austin Ekeler on passing downs. And don't discount the possibility that intriguing seventh-round draft pick Jacorey Croskey-Merritt could threaten B-Rob's workload.

Deebo Samuel had a tough 2024 season, during which he dealt with numerous injuries. Last year alone, he dealt with a calf strain, pneumonia, a hamstring strain, and rib issues. Samuel has accumulated a lengthy medical record throughout the years. The injury risk remains entering 2025, with Samuel being a year older and his playing style as a bruising, tackle-breaking underneath threat continuing. The 49ers dealt Samuel to Washington this offseason as the Commanders were searching for weapons to add to the fold for Jayden Daniels. If we can get past Samuel's question marks on paper, it's a nice marriage. Last year, Washington ranked sixth in screen passes (per Fantasy Points Data). This should be Samuel's role to grab in 2025 as Washington's WR2. Last year, Samuel was the WR46 in fantasy points per game while ranking 47th in target share (17.2%) and receiving yards per game (44.7), 53rd in yards per route run (1.69), and 63rd in first downs per route run. He logged the lowest yards after catch per reception of his career last season. All of the per-route metrics for Samuel are trending in the wrong direction. This isn't a player that I'll be drafting much at cost in 2025, but if he slips far enough in a draft, then I'll possibly hit the draft button. Samuel is a WR4 with more appeal in PPR formats.

Austin Ekeler is being left for dead in early 2025 drafts, with an ADP in the low-end RB4/high-end RB5 range. But Ekeler was productive when healthy last year and is playing in an exciting, up-and-coming offense in Washington. Ekeler scored double-digit PPR points in 8-of-12 games last season and finished RB31 in fantasy points per game. When Brian Robinson Jr. missed a pair of midseason games with a hamstring injury, Ekeler had 134 yards from scrimmage and scored three touchdowns in those two contests. I'm not expecting a return to the high-end RB1 days for the 30-year-old Ekeler, but I think he's a value in the later rounds.

Zach Ertz had a very "Ertzian" season in 2024, where volume and a perfect set of circumstances helped carry him to a TE10 in fantasy points per game finish. He could repeat that in 2025, but he's best viewed as a TE2 with the arrival of Deebo Samuel. He'll have to compete with Samuel for underneath target volume. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Ertz ranked 12th in target share (16.8%), 17th in receiving yards per game (38.5), 27th in yards per route run (1.45), 14th in first read share (17.2%), and 20th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). A team devoid of a steady option outside of Terry McLaurin was forced to lean on Ertz, who performed admirably, but if Samuel can stay healthy, Ertz's target share and first-read share will decline as he turns in a decent TE2 season.

Matt Gay wrapped up 2024 as the 14th-highest scoring kicker and 13th in PPG (8.7). He was money from 20-49 yards (100% conversion rate), but he was just 3-for-9 from 50 yards. Last year was his final year with the Indianapolis Colts, who released him to save money against the salary cap. He signed a one-year deal with the Commanders with the most guaranteed money for a kicker in NFL history. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to post-life in non-dome games. Gay has never finished worse than K14 in a full season since 2019. The Commanders were top-5 in FG attempts per game in 2024, with Austin Seibert leading all kickers in PPG (12.8) through nine games. If Gay's long-distance kicking can rebound closer to his career average (71%), that could put him over the top.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt was a predraft love lister for me. Sadly, he dropped all the way to the seventh round of the NFL Draft before the Commanders picked up the phone. If Croskey-Merritt hadn't had his 2024 season cut off by an eligibility issue, he would have gone much higher than this. His 2023 season was excellent. He ranked 19th in yards after contact per attempt and 12th in elusive rating (per PFF). He's a no-nonsense runner who makes one cut and gets downhill. He'll have his work cut out for him to climb up a crowded running back depth chart, but he has the talent to do so. He could exit training camp as Washington's RB2 and Brian Robinson Jr.'s clear handcuff.

The Commanders are nearly TD-favorites at home in Week 1 versus the New York Giants. It's just the cherry on top of a very favorable DST schedule for Washington. After Big Blue: Packers, Raiders and Falcons. They also drafted WR Jaylin Lane in the 4th round of this year's draft and he could provide a spark on special teams.

Jaylin Lane enters the NFL as a fourth-round pick by the Washington Commanders, initially expected to make his mark as the team's starting punt returner. But don't rule out a larger offensive role. With Terry McLaurin in the final year of his contract and Deebo Samuel on a one-year deal with an extensive injury history, Lane has a realistic path to becoming the starting slot receiver in Washington - especially with last year's third-round pick Luke McCaffrey failing to impress. Lane is a dynamic playmaker and elite athlete. Measuring in at 5-foot-10, 191 pounds, he ran a sub-4.4 40, jumped at least 11'0″ in the broad, and cleared 40″ in the vertical, making him one of just eight WRs to hit all three athletic benchmarks since 2003. He ranked 4th in the 2025 class in YAC per reception (8.5) and has over 100 career kick/punt returns, reinforcing his playmaking ability in space.