Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 18 Rankings
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1.
Patrick Mahomes II
KC (at LV)
Mahomes will be the highest-rostered quarterback on this two-game slate in DFS for a good reason. Mahomes is likely near the top in every statistical category, regardless of what leaderboard you peek at. Mahomes is second in PFF passing grade, fifth in fantasy points per dropback, fourth in yards per attempt, and sixth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Mahomes should rip the Raiders apart through the air. Since Week 12, they have been 24th in passing yards per game, 19th in EPA per drop back, and 28th in explosive pass rate allowed.
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2.
Josh Allen
BUF (vs . NE)
We're getting skinny with a Josh Allen stack here. The Patriots' run defense has been stout, and the Bills' backfield usage unpredictable, so I'm fading Devin Singletary and James Cook and making the bet that Allen is the goal-line back we need. The Patriots have been tough against tight ends, and Gabriel Davis has never topped 42 receiving yards against this defense, so I'm limiting Allen to a pairing with his man Stefon Diggs. Allen ranks sixth in PFF passing grade, 12th in yards per attempt, and second in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Allen faces a Patriots' secondary that has shown vulnerability recently. Since Week 12, they have been 30th in passing yards per game, 22nd in explosive pass rate allowed, and 26th in success rate per dropback.
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3.
Jalen Hurts
PHI (vs . NYG)
The QB1 in fantasy returns for a motivated battle with the Giants. Hurts finished this season top-ten in yards per attempt, fantasy points per dropback, and accuracy rating. His rushing upside could be curtailed this week as he protects his healing shoulder, but that doesn't mean Hurts can't still produce sexy passing numbers through the air. Hurts has tossed for 300-plus yards four times this season, including in two of his last three starts. Hurts also has three games this season with three or more passing touchdowns. Since Week 12, the Giants have been 18th in EPA per dropback, 16th in passing yards per game, and 19th in explosive pass rate allowed. Hurts was limited in practice all week (shoulder) and has been listed as questionable.
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4.
Joe Burrow
CIN (vs . BAL)
Since Week 9, Burrow has led all quarterbacks in PFF passing grade while also sitting at 11th in yards per attempt, third in big-time throw rate, and tenth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Burrow should have a field day. Since Week 12, Baltimore has been 28th in success rate per dropback, 28th in EPA per drop back, and 25th in yards per attempt.
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5.
Trevor Lawrence
JAC (vs . TEN)
Jacksonville should look to deploy a pass-heavy approach this week against Tennessee. Since Week 9, Lawrence has played at an inspired level ranking second in PFF passing grade, 11th in yards per attempt, and fourth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 12, Tennessee has been 32nd in success rate per dropback, 32nd in EPA per dropback, and 27th in fantasy points per game. Lawrence and Mahomes are my favorite quarterback plays for this slate.
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6.
Aaron Rodgers
GB (vs . DET)
Rodgers hasn't been exciting in fantasy this season, but that doesn't mean he can't carve up the Lions on the way to another playoff berth. Rodgers is ninth in PFF passing grade, 28th in yards per attempt, and 17th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 12, the Lions have been 18th in passing yards per game, 24th in EPA per dropback, and 31st in explosive pass rate allowed. Rodgers is another MME play. If you're only running 1-3 DFS lineups, he won't make the cut.
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7.
Dak Prescott
DAL (at WAS)
Since Week 9, Prescott has ranked 14th in PFF passing grade, eighth in adjusted completion rate, eighth in yards per attempt, and 15th in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Dallas could opt to lean on their rushing attack here. Since Week 12, Washington has ranked seventh in success rate per dropback, fifth in passing yards per game, and seventh in explosive pass rate allowed. Prescott is a large-field GPP play only.
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8.
Geno Smith
SEA (vs . LAR)
The last time Chef Geno faced the Rams, he broiled them with 367 passing yards, 9.4 yards per attempt, and three passing scores. Smith is ranked tenth in yards per attempt, 12th in fantasy points per dropback, and fourth in true completion rate. Smith should have another fantastic day against a secondary that, since Week 12, has been 31st in success rate per dropback, 27th in EPA per drop back, and 26th in explosive pass rate allowed.
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9.
Kirk Cousins
MIN (at CHI)
Before imploding last week against the Packers, Cousins had reeled off three straight games of at least 24 fantasy points, 299 passing yards, and two passing touchdowns. Look for Cousins to rebound with a stellar game this week. Cousins ranks fourth in passing yards, sixth in passing touchdowns, and top-ten in deep ball and red zone completion rates. Chicago has dissolved into a trainwreck pass defense. Since Week 12, they are 29th in success rate per dropback, 30th in EPA per drop back, and 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed.
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10.
Justin Herbert
LAC (at DEN)
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11.
Jared Goff
DET (at GB)
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12.
Brock Purdy
SF (vs . ARI)
Purdy hasn't flashed a massive ceiling, with only one 20-plus fantasy point game this season as the starter. Still, with multiple passing touchdowns and a season-high 284 passing yards in Week 17, it's also arguable that we haven't seen his absolute ceiling yet. Purdy ranks 18th in PFF passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, and tenth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The Cardinals could elicit a huge performance from Purdy. Since Week 12, they have been 21st in success rate per dropback and 15th in passing yards per game. The 49ers' passing attack is built upon creating after the catch, and there's no defense in the NFL that's allowed receivers to do this more. Arizona ranks 32nd in YAC and 28th in missed tackles allowed.
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13.
Deshaun Watson
CLE (at PIT)
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14.
Russell Wilson
DEN (vs . LAC)
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15.
Jarrett Stidham
DEN (vs . LAC)
I joked all last week about "Studham" starting for the Raiders, but apparently, the joke was on me. Last week Studham finished fourth in PFF passing grade, second in yards per attempt, second in passing yards (behind only Tom Brady), and 14th in adjusted completion rate. This week he faces a similarly stout Kansas City secondary. Since Week 12, the Chiefs have been fourth in success rate per dropback, tenth in EPA per drop back, and eighth in explosive pass rate allowed. Stidham is the unsexy third-best quarterback option of this two-game DFS slate, but he could easily rival the top dogs on this slate if the Raiders are pushed to throw. Studham's Week 17 performance could be a total outlier, but if it's not, he could be a solid value and an easy way to be different.
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16.
Kenny Pickett
PIT (vs . CLE)
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17.
Sam Darnold
SF (vs . ARI)
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18.
Mac Jones
NE (at BUF)
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19.
Andy Dalton
CAR (at NO)
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20.
Baker Mayfield
TB (at ATL)
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21.
Tom Brady
FA (BYE)
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22.
Desmond Ridder
ATL (vs . TB)
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23.
Joshua Dobbs
CLE (at PIT)
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24.
Davis Mills
HOU (at IND)
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25.
Sam Ehlinger
IND (vs . HOU)
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26.
Skylar Thompson
MIA (vs . NYJ)
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27.
Joe Flacco
FA (BYE)
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28.
Sam Howell
WAS (vs . DAL)
Howell makes his first NFL start this week. He's an interesting GPP play. In the preseason, he ranked ninth in yards per attempt and seventh in aDOT, so Howell has no issues pushing the ball downfield. Add in his three preseason carries for 94 rushing yards, and we have a cheap Konami quarterback to cling to on this slate. Since Week 14, Dallas has struggled to defend the pass, with injuries crippling their secondary. They have been 30th in success rate per dropback, 29th in EPA per drop back, and 25th in explosive pass rate allowed. Howell will make it onto one of my three max teams this week.
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29.
David Blough
ARI (at SF)
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30.
Nathan Peterman
FA (BYE)
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31.
Tyrod Taylor
NYG (at PHI)
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32.
Davis Webb
FA (BYE)
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33.
Anthony Brown
BAL (at CIN)
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34.
Blaine Gabbert
FA (BYE)
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35.
Daniel Jones
NYG (at PHI)
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36.
Jeff Driskel
FA (BYE)
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37.
Teddy Bridgewater
FA (BYE)
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38.
Kyle Trask
TB (at ATL)
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39.
Nick Mullens
MIN (at CHI)
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40.
Gardner Minshew II
IND (vs . HOU)
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41.
Chase Daniel
FA (BYE)
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42.
Taylor Heinicke
ATL (vs . TB)
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43.
Cooper Rush
DAL (at WAS)
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44.
Malik Willis
TEN (at JAC)
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45.
Chris Streveler
NYJ (at MIA)
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46.
Bailey Zappe
NE (at BUF)
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