Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 16 Rankings
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1.
Josh Allen
BUF (at CLE)
If you thought Allen was already scary enough, welcome to "fighting for the division" Josh Allen. In a situation that we haven't seen in a long time, there is no one dominant AFC East team. As a result, despite small odds, Allen and company are hanging onto hope that they can edge out the Patriots for the division and host a playoff game. Over the last two games, Allen has six touchdowns, zero interceptions, 126 rushing yards, and a rushing score. This is a great stretch, but he has two very difficult opponents coming up. Starting with Cleveland on the road, Myles Garrett is on a mission for the all-time single-season sack record. It's hard to ever say that Allen will have a down week; however, this is a very tough matchup with the weather being a potential factor. The Browns are allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to the QB position, and the last time Allen faced an elite defense on the road was the Texans in Week 12. He finished that game as the QB22. Allen is obviously cemented into your roster, but it will be a tough situation for him to maintain his production of the last two weeks.
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2.
Jalen Hurts
PHI (at WAS)
In what has been a down year for Hurts and the Eagles, he is still the QB6 on the season. To make things even better, he starts the fantasy semi-finals against an abysmal Commanders secondary. The Commanders are allowing the fifth most fantasy points to the QB position and the second most passing touchdowns per game. With AJ. Brown resurfacing as a top wideout alongside Devonte Smith, Hurts could be in for another good fantasy day. Last week, despite playing only 75% of snaps in a blowout victory, Hurts had three passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, and ran seven times for 39 yards. If he continues to use his legs more frequently, Hurts could remind people why he is an elite fantasy QB.
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3.
Drake Maye
NE (at BAL)
The QB3 on the season has a great stretch of matchups to close out the season. All year, Maye has been one of the most consistent fantasy QBs, with no fewer than 12 fantasy points in a week. However, he also hasn't provided the elite upside of some of the other top QBs, failing to have a week with over 26 fantasy points. Either way, he is locked into decent fantasy production, especially with some great matchups coming up. Starting with the Ravens, the Patriots try to lock up their division while Lamar Jackson and company try to chase their own. The Ravens are coming off a game where they held Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow to zero points. That's not an easy thing to do. Keep Maye as a locked-in QB1, and hope your other options can bring you week-winning upside.
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4.
Brock Purdy
SF (at IND)
Since his Week 11 return, Brock Purdy has two QB1 weekly finishes (QB3, QB6). Since Week 11, among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy has ranked 15th in passing yards per game, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, 13th in catchable target rate, and eighth in passing touchdowns (tied). Purdy could spit out QB1 numbers again this week. Since Week 11, Indy has allowed the second-most passing yards per game and the tenth-most yards per attempt despite allowing the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate. During that span they have also ranked 17th in pressure rate, so Purdy should have time to find open receivers this week.
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5.
Lamar Jackson
BAL (vs . NE)
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6.
Dak Prescott
DAL (vs . LAC)
Dak Prescott, having his worst weekly finish since Week 1, was not what fantasy managers needed at this point of the season. Unfortunately, this week's matchup isn't any better. Last week, he faced the Vikings, who are allowing the fewest fantasy points to QBs over the last five weeks. This week, he faces the Chargers, who are allowing the second-fewest points. Thankfully, the Cowboys' secondary can't stop anyone, and likely force Dak to throw all game. However, it wouldn't be wild to consider other options over Dak this week. Even if he has another down week, it'll all be worth it if you get to start him against the Commanders in Week 16.
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7.
Joe Burrow
CIN (at MIA)
Self-admittedly, Joe Burrow said that no team in the NFL would have won last week with him at QB. Considering they failed to score a point at home, he may have a point. Thankfully, Zach Taylor has already made it clear that Burrow will play through the end of the season, and the Bengals will try to end the season on a positive note. For fantasy, the Bengals have a great two-matchup coming up against the Dolphins and Cardinals. On the season, the Dolphins are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. With the Dolphins QB still up in the air, the Bengals defense will likely allow points regardless of who is under center. As a result, we have two strong offenses in a potential shootout this week.
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8.
Jared Goff
DET (vs . PIT)
Jared Goff is having an MVP-caliber season as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks third in passing yards per game and yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, sixth in highly accurate throw rate, and tenth in catchable target rate. Goff has a tough matchup this week, but at this point, I have faith that he can overcome it. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-fewest passing yards per game, and the 14th-lowest success rate per dropback.
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9.
Jacoby Brissett
ARI (vs . ATL)
HE DID IT! I didn't think he could, BUT HE DID IT! Jacoby Brissett kept the streak alive last week. He has STILL finished as a QB1 in every start this season. Since Week 6, he has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Brissett has ranked first in passing yards per game, first in dropbacks (the next closest quarterback is 60 dropbacks behind him), second in passing touchdowns, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, and 26th in catchable target rate. Brissett should keep the QB1 train rolling along in Week 16. Since Week 11, Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game, the 12th-most yards per attempt, and the eighth-highest CPOE.
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10.
Bo Nix
DEN (vs . JAC)
Last week, Nix put on a clinic against a talented Green Bay pass defense as the QB2 for the week with 302 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, 8.9 yards per attempt, and a 67.6% completion rate. Overall, among 44 qualifying passers, Nix ranks 14th in passing yards per game, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, 15th in hero throw rate, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. Nix needs to answer the call again this week against a strong pass defense. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, the third-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback. Nix may overcome the tough matchup again, but we have also seen him struggle plenty of times this season against strong pass defense, so it's a coin flip.
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11.
Justin Herbert
LAC (at DAL)
Over the last two games, Herbert has had a sizable decline from the version that we have seen the rest of the season. It's understandable, but unfortunate. He has finished as the QB17 and QB27 in weekly scoring. That QB17 finish was also massively influenced by his 66 rushing yards, which we saw last week, and isn't sustainable (in Week 15, he had zero rushing yards). Since Week 14, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert has ranked 25th in passing yards per game, 25th in yards per attempt, 29th in catchable target rate, and 29th in fantasy points per dropback. Dallas's horrible pass defense could help to elevate Herbert back to QB1 status this week, but it's better to view him as a QB2 with upside. Since Week 11, Dallas has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the ninth-most yards per attempt, and the tenth-highest CPOE. During that span, they have also had the ninth-best pressure rate, which could also help to tamp down Herbert's stats if the Chargers' battered offensive line allows the pass rush to get home regularly.
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12.
C.J. Stroud
HOU (vs . LV)
Since Week 5, in CJ Stroud's seven starts, he has three QB1 finishes in weekly scoring (QB1, QB11, QB8). Since Week 5, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud has ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 16th in passing yards per game, 33rd in highly accurate throw rate, and 35th in catchable target rate. Stroud could post another QB1 performance in Week 16. Since Week 11, the Raiders' pass defense has fallen apart, giving up the sixth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the second-highest CPOE, and the second-highest success rate per dropback.
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13.
Jordan Love
GB (at CHI)
Jordan Love is the QB16 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 weekly finishes in his last five games (QB8, QB2, QB11). Overall, among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Love is eighth in yards per attempt, 12th in passing yards per game, 18th in catchable throw rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. Love could be a QB1 again this week, but he's best viewed as a high-floor QB2 against an improved Chicago pass defense. Since Week 11, Chicago has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game, the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback, and the sixth-lowest passer rating.
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14.
Jaxson Dart
NYG (vs . MIN)
Since Week 4, the only quarterback with more fantasy points per game than Jaxson Dart is Josh Allen. Since Week 4, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Dart has ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 23rd in highly accurate throw rate, 18th in catchable target rate, and third in hero throw rate. Since Week 4, he has averaged 7.6 rushing attempts and 44.4 rushing yards with seven rushing scores. Dart will need all of the rushing equity he can muster against a strong Vikings' pass defense. Since Week 11, Minnesota hasn't allowed a passing touchdown while also giving up the fourth-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, and the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback.
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15.
Baker Mayfield
TB (at CAR)
Mike Evans returns to the lineup, and Baker Mayfield sports his first 20-point fantasy outing since Week 10. A coincidence? I think not. Mayfield didn't look like the same quarterback that came screaming out of the gate to begin the 2025 season, but it was a better showing than we have had from Mayfield in the last few weeks. Mayfield is still providing some rushing equity with at least 27 rushing yards in three of his last five games. Among 44 qualifying passers this season, he is 21st in passing yards per game, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, 28th in catchable target rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. Mayfield could post a QB1 stat line this week. Since Week 11, Carolina has allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.
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16.
Trevor Lawrence
JAC (at DEN)
After last week's monster game, Trevor Lawrence is the QB7 in fantasy points per game with QB1 outings in weekly scoring in five of his last seven games. Since Week 9, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence ranks 12th in passing yards per game, sixth in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns (tied), 13th in highly accurate throw rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. The generational talent has bubbled to the top for Lawrence. It has been amazing to watch. The true litmus test for Lawrence is this week. Denver still fields one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Since Week 11, Denver has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback.
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17.
Matthew Stafford
LAR (at SEA)
Matthew Stafford is the QB4 in fantasy points per game with QB1 weekly finishes in eight of his last 11 games. The last time that he played Seattle, he was the QB16 for the week, though. Stafford will have an uphill climb this week to be a top 12 quarterback, but it's possible. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford ranks seventh in yards per attempt, 13th in catchable target rate, second in hero throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 11, Seattle's pass defense has remained nasty, giving up the lowest passing yards per game, the fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback. Stafford could be a QB1 this week, but losing Davante Adams this week doesn't help his outlook.
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18.
Tyler Shough
NO (vs . NYJ)
Since Week 9, Tyler Shough has been the QB16 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings. During that stretch, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Shough has ranked 13th in yards per attempt, fifth in catchable target rate, tenth in hero throw rate, and 13th in passing yards per game. Across his last four games, he has had at least 18 rushing yards in each game while also sporting two rushing touchdowns. Shough could post another QB1 stat line this week. Since Week 11, New York has allowed the eighth-most yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE.
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19.
Caleb Williams
CHI (vs . GB)
Caleb Williams has been a QB2 in weekly scoring in four of his last five games, including a QB16 performance against Green Bay. The last time he faced the Packers, he had a 54.3% completion rate with 186 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. This week, Williams could be without Rome Odunze and Luther Burden, which won't help his outlook. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranks 17th in passing yards per game, 25th in yards per attempt, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and 39th in catchable target rate. There's not much to like there. Williams should have more time in the pocket this week with no Micah Parsons, but this pass defense isn't a pushover. Since Week 11, they have allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards per game while ranking 17th in CPOE and 15th in success rate per dropback. Williams should be viewed as a decent QB2.
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20.
J.J. McCarthy
MIN (at NYG)
J.J. McCarthy BABY! Over the last two weeks, he has looked like the quarterback that I know he can be as the QB9 and QB6 in weekly scoring. Since Week 14, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, McCarthy has ranked fifth in yards per attempt, 12th in catchable target rate, first in hero throw rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback. He has been COOKIN'! McCarthy can continue the hot streak this week. Since Week 11, the Giants have allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passer rating, the highest CPOE, and the 14th-highest success rate per dropback.
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21.
Aaron Rodgers
PIT (at DET)
Aaron Rodgers is the QB24 in fantasy points per game as he continues to play low aDOT point guard for Pittsburgh. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he still has the lowest aDOT (6.0) and the highest percentage of his passing yards from yards after the catch (67.3%) while ranking 21st in yards per attempt, tenth in passing touchdowns (tied), and 25th in passing yards per game. Since Week 11, Detroit's pass defense has been horrible, giving up the most passing yards per game, the third-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and the 12th-highest success rate per dropback. They might surprise this week, though. Overall, this defense has allowed the fourth-lowest yards after the catch and the third-fewest missed tackles, which strikes at the core of the Pittsburgh passing offensive design. Rodgers is a QB2 again this week.
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22.
Bryce Young
CAR (vs . TB)
Bryce Young is the QB25 in fantasy points per game with four QB1 weekly outings this season, including two in his last four games. Young has been an impossible player to predict this season, with these random spike week games when you least expect it, and duds when we chase the previous performances. Young is lined up well again this week to have a strong game, but who knows if that will actually happen. Among 44 qualifying passers, Young ranks 27th in passing yards per game, 34th in yards per attempt, 35th in highly accurate throw rate, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. This week, he faces a Bucs pass defense that, since Week 11, has been one of the worst in the league, giving up the third-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-highest CPOE, and the fourth-highest success rate per dropback.
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23.
Kirk Cousins
ATL (at ARI)
Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins can't play the Buccaneers weekly. In his last three meetings with Tampa Bay, he has finished as the QB1, QB3, and QB3 in weekly scoring, so I guess last week's performance shouldn't be a surprise. It was, though, because last week was just the second time this season he has thrown for multiple passing touchdowns, and the first game that he surpassed 240 yards through the air. Overall, among 48 qualifying passers, Cousins is 30th in yards per attempt, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, 40th in fantasy points per dropback, and 33rd in hero throw rate. Cousins likely doesn't equal last week's output, but he could surprise and flirt with QB1 production. Arizona's pass defense has fallen apart. Since Week 11, Arizona has allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, the second-highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE.
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24.
Sam Darnold
SEA (vs . LAR)
Sam Darnold is the QB22 in fantasy points per game, with QB1 weekly finishes in only three of his last seven games. This includes a QB25 outing in his last meeting with the Rams. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game, second in highly accurate throw rate, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 13th in fantasy points per dropback. The Rams are a below-average matchup for Darnold. Since Week 11, the Rams have ranked 15th in yards per attempt and allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, but they have also held quarterbacks to the second-lowest CPOE, the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback, and have forced the third-most interceptions. Darnold should be viewed as a decent QB2 this week.
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25.
Marcus Mariota
WAS (vs . PHI)
Marcus Mariota will be Washington's starter for the rest of the season. He has three QB1 outings this season while averaging 6.4 rushing attempts and 36.7 rushing yards as the team's starter. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 30th in catchable target rate, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. Mariota is best viewed as a decent QB2 this week with a tough matchup. Since Week 11, Philly has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-fewest passing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest CPOE.
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26.
Gardner Minshew II
KC (at TEN)
With Patrick Mahomes tearing his ACL, Gardner Minshew will be the Chiefs' starting quarterback for the remainder of the 2025 season. This is a wonderful spot for him to get his first start in a Chiefs' uniform. Last year, Minshew didn't register a single QB1 outing in weekly scoring. Among 47 qualifying passers last year, Minshew ranked 34th in yards per attempt, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, 32nd in catchable target rate, and 42nd in fantasy points per dropback. None of that is impressive or honestly good, but Minshew could still put up QB1 numbers this week because the Tennessee pass defense is that bad. Since Week 11, they have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, the second-highest yards per attempt, and the seventh-highest success rate per dropback.
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27.
Quinn Ewers
MIA (vs . CIN)
Quinn Ewers will get the start for Miami this week with Tua Tagovailoa benched. Ewers has attempted eight passes in the NFL, completing five of them with 6.6 yards per attempt. It's anyone's guess how he'll perform this week. I wasn't enamored with him as a prospect entering the NFL, but I do hope he proves me wrong and plays well this week. This is a great matchup for him to get his first NFL start, though. Since Week 11, Cincy has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the 12th-most passing yards per game, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback. Ewers could easily post solid mid-range QB2 numbers this week.
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28.
Shedeur Sanders
CLE (vs . BUF)
After a wonderful performance against the Titans in Week 14, Shedeur Sanders came crashing back to earth last week with a 51.4% completion rate, 177 passing yards, zero passing touchdowns, and three interceptions (QB31 for the week). Since Week 12, among 33 qualifying passers, Sanders has ranked 13th in yards per attempt, 15th in hero throw rate, 24th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in catchable target rate. This week, he's a QB2 that is best left on the bench. Since Week 11, Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and they have ranked 16th in success rate per dropback. Sanders should at least have time in the pocket this week. Since Week 11, Buffalo has had the second-lowest pressure rate.
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29.
Cam Ward
TEN (vs . KC)
Cam Ward is the QB33 in fantasy points per game, with only one weekly performance better than QB17 this season. He hasn't thrown for more than 265 yards in any game this season, but he does have two passing touchdowns in each of the last two games. Ward should be able to muster decent QB2 numbers this week. Since Week 11, Kansas City has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game, the 14th-most yards per attempt, and ranked 15th in success rate per dropback.
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30.
Philip Rivers
IND (vs . SF)
Before we get into last week's numbers, I want to say Philip Rivers surprised me. Considering that he hadn't played in the NFL in five years and suited up on short notice, he looked good. Did he look like a 45-year-old quarterback at times, moving around in the pocket? Yep. Would I like him to have more zip on some passes? Yep. Does that mean he can't play point guard for this offense right now? Nope. Last week, Rivers played point effectively with a 4.8 aDOT, a 66.7% highly accurate throw rate, and a 77.8% catchable target rate. Sadly, that amounted to only 120 passing yards, one passing touchdown, 4.4 yards per attempt, and a QB28 finish for fantasy. Rivers is a low-end QB2 again this week, but he should be able to manage the game effectively again. Since Week 11, the 49ers have allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest CPOE, and ranked 16th in yards per attempt. It should also help Rivers that during that span, this defense has had the third-lowest pressure rate.
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31.
Brady Cook
NYJ (at NO)
Last week, Brady Cook completed 66.7% of his passes with 176 passing yards, three interceptions (one touchdown), and 39 rushing yards as the QB26 for the week. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 47th in highly accurate throw rate, 46th in hero throw rate, and 47th in fantasy points per dropback. Cook is headed for another tough week against an improved Saints' pass defense. Since Week 11, New Orleans has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing yards per game, the ninth-lowest CPOE, and the lowest success rate per dropback.
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32.
Geno Smith
LV (at HOU)
Pete Carroll has stated that the Raiders' offense could have Geno Smith back under center for Week 16. I don't care if Smith is starting or Kenny Pickett this week. I don't want to play the Raiders starting quarterback in fantasy lineups this week. Whoever it is will be in for a long day. Since Week 11, Houston has allowed the 14th-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback.
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33.
Kenny Pickett
LV (at HOU)
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34.
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA (vs . CIN)
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35.
Tyrod Taylor
NYJ (at NO)
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36.
Trey Lance
LAC (at DAL)
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37.
Riley Leonard
IND (vs . SF)
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38.
Teddy Bridgewater
TB (at CAR)
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39.
Tyler Huntley
BAL (vs . NE)
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40.
Davis Mills
HOU (vs . LV)
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41.
Joe Flacco
CIN (at MIA)
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42.
Jameis Winston
NYG (vs . MIN)
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43.
Mason Rudolph
PIT (at DET)
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44.
Max Brosmer
MIN (at NYG)
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45.
Tyson Bagent
CHI (vs . GB)
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46.
Malik Willis
GB (at CHI)
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47.
Mitchell Trubisky
BUF (at CLE)
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48.
Justin Fields
NYJ (at NO)
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49.
Joshua Dobbs
NE (at BAL)
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50.
Zach Wilson
MIA (vs . CIN)
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51.
Spencer Rattler
NO (vs . NYJ)
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52.
Joe Milton III
DAL (vs . LAC)
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53.
Hendon Hooker
NYJ (at NO)
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54.
Mac Jones
SF (at IND)
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55.
Jarrett Stidham
DEN (vs . JAC)
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56.
Jimmy Garoppolo
LAR (at SEA)
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57.
Brett Rypien
IND (vs . SF)
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58.
Tanner McKee
PHI (at WAS)
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59.
Nick Mullens
JAC (at DEN)
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60.
Collin Hill
FA (BYE)
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61.
Andy Dalton
CAR (vs . TB)
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62.
Shane Buechele
BUF (at CLE)
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63.
Brandon Allen
TEN (vs . KC)
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64.
Russell Wilson
NYG (vs . MIN)
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65.
Jake Browning
CIN (at MIA)
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66.
Dillon Gabriel
CLE (vs . BUF)
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67.
Cooper Rush
BAL (vs . NE)
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68.
Anthony Richardson Sr.
IND (vs . SF)
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69.
Taylor Heinicke
FA (BYE)
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70.
Kurtis Rourke
SF (at IND)
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71.
Will Howard
PIT (at DET)
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72.
Sam Howell
PHI (at WAS)
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73.
Aidan O'Connell
LV (at HOU)
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74.
Drew Lock
SEA (vs . LAR)
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75.
Case Keenum
CHI (vs . GB)
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76.
Desmond Ridder
FA (BYE)
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77.
Jake Haener
NO (vs . NYJ)
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78.
Trevor Siemian
TEN (vs . KC)
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79.
Tommy DeVito
NE (at BAL)
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80.
Jeff Driskel
ARI (vs . ATL)
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81.
Graham Mertz
HOU (vs . LV)
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82.
Michael Pratt
FA (BYE)
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83.
Seth Henigan
FA (BYE)
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84.
Matt Corral
FA (BYE)
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85.
Bryan Bennett
FA (BYE)
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86.
Matt Barkley
FA (BYE)
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