Remember the good old days when most NFL teams had a bell-cow running back that you could count on for 20-25 touches every single week? Ahhh, such sweet memories.
Nowadays, the number of true every-down backs can be counted on one hand (ok, maybe two). The rest of the league’s backfields present us with some kind of timeshare puzzle to work through. The basic calculus is fairly obvious but worth clarifying: How many fantasy points will a team’s backfield create, and how will those points be divvied up?
The answers to those questions are largely dependent on league format. Take the Lions. If you’re in a PPR league, a pass-catching specialist like Theo Riddick can pay the bills. If you’re in a league that is heavily weighted towards touchdowns over yardage, there may be a place for a goal line vulture like Zach Zenner. In standard leagues, you’re looking for the best combination of yardage and scoring potential, so Ameer Abdullah should probably be the first Detroit RB off your board.
Teams approach the running back position very differently, whether due to deeply-held offensive philosophies or simply coaches’ gameday whims. But one of the best ways to get a grasp on the running back landscape is to think about the categories of running backs that are out there, based not only on their skill set but on their role in the offense and the scoring potential of that offense.
These roles are always subject to change at a moment’s notice because coaches are fickle and running back is the league’s most interchangeable position. NFL teams are also notoriously secretive (the “Belichick factor”), so there’s only so much we can know before the games actually start to count, especially on teams that have had a coaching change or a lot of roster turnover.
But we’re now reaching peak fantasy draft season, so it’s worth taking a stab at breaking down the current running back landscape. The sections below are loosely sorted by the amount of fantasy value that category of player will generally have in standard leagues, but it doesn’t fully account for team context. For instance, you’re likely better off with 15 carries from an RB on the Falcons (Devonta Freeman) than 20 carries from an RB on the Bears (Jordan Howard). So the order below shouldn’t be taken as a substitute for running back player rankings.
If you have thoughts on any of this or just want to ask me a question about your draft/team, give me a shout on Twitter. Now on to the running back categories.
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Every-Down Backs
David Johnson
Le’Veon Bell
Ezekiel Elliott (likely suspended)
LeSean McCoy
Melvin Gordon
Jay Ajayi
Jordan Howard
Todd Gurley
These are the running backs that can be safely expected to get 20 or more touches in every game they start in 2017. They were all in the top-12 in carries and at least fairly active in the passing game last season, and nothing has happened during the offseason to suggest that won’t happen again this year. The one obvious exception is Elliott, who is likely to miss the first six games of the season but should return to an every-down role following his suspension.
Highly-Productive Committee Chairs
Freeman finished just outside the top-12 in total carries last year, but he ranked just 22nd in carries per game. His backup, Tevin Coleman, is likely to again see more action than any of the backups to the every-down backs. But the Falcons should again be an elite offense, giving Freeman ample opportunities to pile up yardage and TDs, and he remains one of the most targeted top-tier running backs in the passing game. Once he gets over his concussion, another big season should be in store.
Possible Bell Cows With Young Competition
Murray finished tied for third in carries and added 53 catches last season, and he could well do it again on a Tennessee team that is committed to the running game. But he has more wear on the tires than the surefire every-down backs and also has a highly-skilled young running back behind him in Derrick Henry.
Lynch finished in the top five in carries every year from 2011 to 2014 before getting hurt in 2015 and then famously taking last season off. He is the clear starter on what should be an explosive Oakland offense but has two young backs behind him (DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard) and needs to prove he still has some juice left in his Skittles, so to speak.
Young RBs Who Could Become Bell Cows
Leonard Fournette
Kareem Hunt
Dalvin Cook
Christian McCaffrey
Joe Mixon
These are the five rookie running backs with the clearest path to an immediate fantasy impact. Fournette is the only one who has already risen to the top of his team’s depth chart, but he has to contend with a nagging foot injury — and probably inept quarterback play, too. Hunt has had an excellent preseason and looks poised to take the starting job and run with it following Spencer Ware’s knee injury. Cook and Mixon could each quickly ascend to a starting role but face competition from established veterans for both early down/goal line work (Latavius Murray and Jeremy Hill) and third-down involvement (Jerick McKinnon and Giovani Bernard). McCaffery is an incredible talent, but he’s unlikely to overtake Jonathan Stewart (or Cam Newton) for goal line work and is likely looking at a backfield timeshare with Stewart to begin the season.
Low-ish Upside Lead Backs
Lamar Miller
Isaiah Crowell
Frank Gore
Terrance West
These backs should get their touches. The question is how much production they can accrue with those opportunities. None of them play on what project to be high-scoring offenses, with the possible exception of Gore should Andrew Luck finally get healthy. However, they all lack any real competition for early-down duties to begin the year. All stand a good chance of providing steady, workmanlike RB2/3 fantasy production if they hold that role all season.
Lead Backs With Workload Concerns
Carlos Hyde
Ty Montgomery
Doug Martin
C.J. Anderson
Rob Kelley
Bilal Powell
Paul Perkins
Ameer Abdullah
Jonathan Stewart
These backs presumably sit atop the depth chart to begin the season, but their names are written in pencil, not indelible marker.
Hyde, Montgomery, Kelley, and Stewart face competition from rookie draft picks, and have some talent, health, or durability concerns. Martin will miss the first three games due to suspension, giving Jacquizz Rodgers another opportunity to steal carries, and Martin is also a perennial injury risk. Powell and Abdullah have some talent but are unlikely to be given the opportunity to be every-down backs and probably don’t fit that mold anyway. Anderson and Perkins simply don’t instill a lot of confidence, but their teams lack better options — for now.
Second-String RBs With Stand-Alone Value
Once again, Atlanta’s high-powered offense presents a unique situation. Coleman is clearly the backup to Freeman, but last season that translated into a top-20 finish in fantasy points among RBs in standard leagues — in just 13 games. Coleman’s role makes him fairly boom-or-bust, but as long as the Falcons continue to move the ball with regularity he should again provide plenty of fantasy production.
RBs Fighting For Lead Roles In Good Situations
Thomas Rawls
Eddie Lacy
Mike Gillislee
Rex Burkhead
Mark Ingram
Adrian Peterson
The Seahawks, Patriots, and Saints all have dynamite offenses that are worth investing in, whenever possible. Unfortunately, all three teams have murky backfield situations with the regular season fast-approaching.
In Seattle, Rawls and Lacy each have elite fantasy years on their resumes, but they’ve also had lost seasons. If one of them can establish himself as the early down and goal line back, he’ll have significant value, even though neither is likely to seize third down/passing back duties.
The Patriots’ backfield is a complete mystery, as usual, but Gillislee and Burkhead look like the current favorites for between-the-tackles work. LeGarrette Blount‘s 18-TD performance last year shows the upside of that role, but given New England’s constant backfield shuffling, Gillislee and Burkhead are each ultimately risky, boom-or-bust selections on draft day.
The Saints don’t run the ball a whole lot, but Ingram has proven that efficiency and scoring opportunities can more than make up for a reduced workload. The problem is that he and Peterson are both highly-qualified for the job at hand, and it’s anybody’s guess how it will play out. Will they split the job or will one of them emerge as the clear-cut guy? The best guess is that they’ll both have some value but neither will match their previous peaks as fantasy studs.
Suspended Players’ Handcuffs
Darren McFadden
Jacquizz Rodgers
With Ezekiel Elliott and Doug Martin facing suspensions of six and three games, respectively, McFadden and Rodgers should both start the season as desirable fantasy starters. McFadden gets the longer opportunity in what should be the better running game, but he is injury prone and could share the workload with Alfred Morris. Rodgers should cede third down work to Charles Sims, but he has a better chance than McFadden of establishing year-long value since Martin is probably less entrenched as a bell cow than Elliott.
Passing Game Specialists With Touchdown Upside
Danny Woodhead
Darren Sproles
James White
Theo Riddick
Shane Vereen
Outside of PPR leagues, RBs that specialize in pass-catching are generally not great fantasy commodities. But that’s not the case when the “scat” back also has a meaningful role in the red zone.
Thanks to their abilities as both runners and pass-catchers, Woodhead and Sproles each have nine- and eight-touchdown seasons on their resumes. Yes, they achieved those TD totals with different teams than they currently play for, but both the Ravens and Eagles at least appear committed to utilizing Woodhead and Sproles in a similar fashion to how the Chargers and Saints did.
Riddick scored six times last season and has continuity on his side. White scored five TDs last year, and he has some potential even in standard leagues if he can hold onto the Patriots’ passing down role. Vereen has never surpassed four touchdowns in a season, but he could be asked to take on a bigger role in the offense if Paul Perkins falters.
Young Upside Fliers
Derrick Henry
Samaje Perine
Jamaal Williams
Joe Williams
Jonathan Williams
DeAndre Washington
Jalen Richard
D’Onta Foreman
Marlon Mack
Alvin Kamara
De’Angelo Henderson
James Conner
Now we get to the young backs who could explode on the scene or be a total non-factor in 2017. Henry is one of the highest-upside handcuffs out there, and Jonathan Williams also could have significant handcuff value in deeper leagues. Perine, Jamaal Williams, and Joe Williams could all conceivably challenge for the starting job quickly if the presumptive starter fails to impress. The rest of this group might have some more depth chart climbing to do before they are on the cusp of fantasy value.
Older Upside Fliers
Charles and Lewis each have a massive range of outcomes that spans from RB1 production to getting cut before the season even starts. They each have been impressive fantasy commodities in the not-too-distant past and play for teams that should be able to run the ball effectively. They aren’t bad late-round fliers in leagues where it’s easy enough to move on if it doesn’t work out.
Early-Down And Goal-Line Grinders
Jeremy Hill
LeGarrette Blount
Wendell Smallwood
Robert Turbin
Zach Zenner
These running backs simply aren’t that talented as runners, but they could pile up touchdowns if the stars align. Hill and whichever back emerges in Philly could begin the year as the technical “starter,” but they’re quite unlikely to end up as their teams’ best fantasy back. The league has fewer touchdown vultures than it used to have, but Turbin sure was one last year, scoring eight times while rushing for just 164 yards.
Vets Losing Ground
Latavius Murray
Spencer Ware
Matt Forte
Chris Ivory
T.J. Yeldon
Devontae Booker
Each of these backs used to generate some degree of fantasy excitement, but they’re all trending in the wrong direction. Murray has some solid-if-not-spectacular seasons on his resume and could ascend to the Carlos Hyde category of backs if Dalvin Cook struggles out of the gate. Ware was set to be the lead back in Kansas City before suffering a knee injury, but now he’s likely to miss a good chunk of the season and could struggle to regain his starting job from explosive rookie Kareem Hunt when he returns. Forte is on the tail end of an excellent career and playing for what looks like an awful team. Ivory could become interesting again in standard leagues if Fournette struggles with injuries. Yeldon and Booker appear to have squandered their shots at fantasy relevance.
Third Down Backs
Duke Johnson
C.J. Prosise
Giovani Bernard
Chris Thompson
Charles Sims
These backs are unlikely to amass enough yardage to make up for their lack of scoring potential, outside of PPR leagues. They also lack any real handcuff value and are best utilized as desperation bye-week streamers.
Potentially Useful Handcuffs
Chris Johnson
Charcandrick West
Branden Oliver
Alfred Blue
Alfred Morris
Damien Williams
Kenyan Drake
Orleans Darkwa
Chris Carson
These backs have no stand-alone value but could make a significant fantasy impact if the cards play out right. Chris Johnson is a boring handcuff, but he would be worthy of RB2 consideration if something happened to David Johnson. Spencer Ware’s injury could vault West into must-have handcuff status behind talented but unproven rookie Kareem Hunt. Oliver, Blue, and Morris need to solidify the number two spot on their respective depth charts, but if they manage to do so they are one injury away from fantasy relevance. Williams, Drake, Darkwa, and Carson have even more muddled paths to fantasy value because none seem destined for a heavy workload even if an injury occurs to their teams’ starters.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
