The 2017 season is nearly over, and I will remember it as the “Year of the Replacement Quarterback.” It’s been one after another, due to benching or injury, with many surprising results, starting with the Week 1 shock of Jacoby Brissett as the Colts’ starter. Even Deshaun Watson replaced Tom Savage initially.
Case Keenum may have led Minnesota into the playoffs, but he started off the season on the bench. Those are only some of the most successful – it would take far too long to list all the bad ones.
It’s been beneficial for finding value in DFS lineups, as it is again this week, but rough for fans of watching good quarterback play between the injuries and the benchings. At least this week, it was only a benching of Blaine Gabbert. I can handle that.
(Statistics via Pro-Football-Reference)
Create Optimal FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool 
Quarterback
Drew Stanton (ARI): $6,000 vs. NYG
It’s an ugly week for quarterback value, so Drew Stanton for the minimum salary against the worst defense (by fantasy points allowed) feels strangely like a gift. Above Stanton, there’s no one I’m interested in until the high $7,000 range, which makes him a value quarterback in my eyes. While he’s not an exciting play, he should be a solid one against a Giants defense that has allowed fewer than 24 points only three times all year and once in the last eight games (the very strange victory over the Chiefs).
Stanton managed just over 15 fantasy points in both his starts this year – not exciting, but enough – and has the potential for more against this defense. He’ll have Larry Fitzgerald mostly matched up against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who has been shredded this season.
John Brown is still questionable, but there’s no lack of receivers in Arizona and Stanton will also have at least one solid pass-catching tight end active. He’s at the top of our Value Play rankings.
Running Back
Devonta Freeman (ATL): $7,000 @ NO
Tevin Coleman is expected to be back this week, but that doesn’t lower my enthusiasm about Devonta Freeman. $7,000 is the upper limit of what I can call a value play, but there’s no other way to describe his salary given the situation.
Freeman is unlikely to lose many touches to Coleman. Coleman has gotten 10 or more carries just four times all season. Freeman was inactive for two of them and left after two carries in a third.
The carries Coleman gets will take away from guys like Terron Ward, and the Falcons could still be cautious with Coleman in his return to action. A few weeks ago, against the Saints, Freeman carried it 24 times for 91 yards and a touchdown, even though Coleman had his typical nine carries.
Let’s talk about the Saints’ defense. One of the stories of the year has been their historic improvement over last year. For the season, in spite of Coleman’s aforementioned nice day, they’ve allowed the 18th-most fantasy points to running backs.
It’s not exactly a juicy matchup. But they’ve just taken some devastating losses, with both linebacker A.J. Klein and safety/slot corner Kenny Vaccaro being placed on injured reserve.
Vaccaro was Pro Football Focus’ sixth-best safety against the run. Klein meant even more to the Saints, with other players calling him their “field general.”
He read the offense and called out plays. He was responsible for getting the defense set. His stats for the year won’t set any records, but his impact on the team was huge.
But don’t take my word for it. Head coach Sean Payton thinks Klein “was a big part of [their] success and [their] improvement defensively.”
Both losses are massive for the Saints, and it won’t be easy for their defense to compensate. Devonta Freeman ran over them once already. It should be easier this time.
Mike Gillislee (NE): $4,500 vs. BUF
Who doesn’t want a piece of a running back against the Bills defense, a defense that allows the most fantasy points to running backs on average by more than one point? But it’s not quite that simple because the Bills are facing the Patriots and Bill Belichick is notoriously fickle with his running backs. Even having Rex Burkhead out of the picture doesn’t help, because Mike Gillislee, a healthy scratch for weeks now, is set to re-enter the rotation – and against his former team, no less.
Whether it’s because Gillislee likely knows the Buffalo defense well or because Belichick wants to shove the signing of their cast-off running back in Buffalo’s face (I suspect it’s the former and hope it’s the latter), I expect Gillislee to get a healthy workload. Dion Lewis has been playing well, but Gillislee will be fresh and fully healthy (after not playing in eight weeks), and the Patriots seem intent on balancing the workload between three backs.
I think the most significant thing is that Lewis has gotten almost none of the work inside the 10-yard line – an area of the field where Mike Gillislee flourished when he was active, especially right on the goal line. That valuable work had been going to Rex Burkhead.
Figuring out the Patriots’ running game plans is mostly educated guesswork, but when considering the Gillislee vs. Lewis question, it’s important to remember that Dion Lewis costs $2,200 more. Yes, Lewis is less risky. But not that much less risky.
Wide Receiver
Robert Woods (LAR): $6,600 @ TEN
The Rams have been such a surprise all year with their league-leading offense, and Robert Woods has been one of the top beneficiaries, despite the early-season notion that Sammy Watkins would be the new go-to guy. Watkins hasn’t been bad, but Woods has dominated the target share. Since Week 3, he’s averaged 7.6 targets per game.
Even in last week’s thrashing of the Seahawks, when the game seemed over by the end of the first quarter, he got seven looks from Jared Goff. Despite being his first game back from injury, he converted those seven targets into six catches for 45 yards and a touchdown.
The Titans have a much softer secondary than the Seahawks. I was shocked that they’re as low as 11th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, given how terribly their pass defense has performed. This week is bound to be even worse.
Cornerback LeShaun Sims has already been ruled out. He hasn’t played well, but his replacement will be worse. Fellow cornerback Logan Ryan is still questionable, but he’s been absent from practice Wednesday and Thursday. His story is the same as Sims: bad, but better than the guy behind him.
These injuries will shake up what was an already-shaky Tennessee secondary. The biggest threat to Robert Woods is that Todd Gurley will put the game away before Woods can score enough fantasy points.
Chris Godwin (TB): $4,500 @ CAR
With DeSean Jackson looking doubtful for Sunday, Chris Godwin will enter the starting lineup for the Buccaneers. The rookie out of Penn State has impressive speed that is not quite Jackson’s equal (4.42 to Jackson’s 4.35 40-yard dash)…but he’s also three inches taller and 25 pounds heavier. He’s had a relatively quiet season, but has filled in adequately when needed.
The Panthers’ pass defense has gotten torn up all year, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers. Mike Evans can’t get every single target from Jameis Winston, but he will draw a lot of defensive attention and give Godwin some breathing room.
I expect Godwin to get at least five targets against a lousy defense. You can’t ask for much more from a minimum-salary wide receiver punt play.
Tight End
Ricky Seals-Jones (ARI): or Jermaine Gresham (ARI): $5,200 or $4,500 vs. NYG
We don’t know yet if Ricky Seals-Jones or Jermaine Gresham will start for the Cardinals this week. Gresham missed last week’s game with an illness. So far, he’s practiced in a limited capacity, and it’s not clear whether he’ll be ready for Sunday.
Whoever gets the start, get him in your lineup. Hopefully, it will be Gresham for the $700 savings and his more-defined role in the offense, especially with Drew Stanton under center. However, Seals-Jones is the more athletic player (at this point in their respective careers), so he does bring a certain upside and excitement that Jermaine Gresham lacks.
Playing tight ends against the Giants has rarely gone wrong this season. They allow the most fantasy points to the position by a margin of nearly two points over the second-most (Cleveland Browns).
Drew Stanton, in his two games this year, has looked to his tight ends frequently. He targeted them on 20% of his throws: nine times against Seattle (seven to Gresham, two to Troy Niklas, primarily a blocking tight end) and six times against San Francisco (split evenly between Gresham and Niklas). Against a defense that can’t stop tight ends, I think Stanton will rely on them even more.
Kicker
Josh Lambo (JAC): $4,800 @ SF
Josh Lambo has been a real weapon for the Jaguars since they acquired him mid-season. He’s made 17 of 18 field goals and 19 of 20 extra points. The Jaguars offense has found a spark lately, and the 49ers defense is unlikely to extinguish it.
They’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to kickers this season, which is in part a function of them giving up a ton of real points, both touchdowns and field goals. After three games at home, the Jags are back on the road. I could see Bortles taking a step backward and Jacksonville needing to kick more field goals after stalled drives, but even if he doesn’t, Lambo will be fine.
D/ST
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST: $4,500 vs. MIA
I’m not sure why the Chiefs D/ST is so cheap. Did the unlikely victory over the Patriots boost FanDuel’s opinion of the Miami offense? Hard to say. But it shouldn’t have, as evidenced by Jay Cutler’s return to form in his three-interception loss to the Bills.
This game is at home in Arrowhead Stadium. While I’ve never seen it in person, even on TV, I can tell what a loud and intimidating place to play it is for the visitors. It’s probably not going to make things easy for Cutler.
Kenyan Drake has continued to impress, but the Chiefs have been stout against the run. The Dolphins allow the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses.
It’s easy to forget about the “Special Teams” part of “D/ST,” but for teams like Kansas City, we definitely should not. Having a guy like Tyreek Hill running back kicks significantly increases the chances of a return touchdown, the holy grail of D/ST scoring. At $4,500, the Chiefs are the top-ranked D/ST in our Value Play tool.
Create Optimal FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Steve Repsold is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him @SteveRepsold.
