Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears
Total: 38.5
Line: CHI by 6.5
QBs
DeShone Kizer: While watching Kizer last week, you can’t help but think that the Browns need to draft a quarterback extremely high in the NFL Draft next year. Some of his decision-making is the worst I’ve ever seen, and it’s now led to 13 turnovers in the last six games. Despite throwing 410 pass attempts this year, he’s thrown just nine touchdowns with 19 interceptions. Now going to Chicago to play in temps that are likely to be below freezing isn’t likely to help. The Bears have a lot wrong with their team, but quarterbacks haven’t been one of them. We’re now 14 games into the season, and there’s been just five quarterbacks who’ve finished with more than 14.1 fantasy points against them. Those quarterbacks were: Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford (twice), and Matt Ryan. Outside of that group, no quarterback has finished inside the top-16 against the Bears defense, so feel free to simply ignore Kizer in fantasy this week.
Mitch Trubisky: This game is likely to have a run-heavy game-script on both sides of the ball, so counting on Trubisky as anything more than a low-end QB2 in season-long leagues would be a mistake. The Browns have allowed multiple touchdown passes to 9-of-14 quarterbacks this year, while just one of them failed to throw at least one touchdown (Marcus Mariota). Knowing that, Trubisky should have a solid floor, but there have been four starts where he’s finished with 25 or less pass attempts. You should expect something in the range of 200-225 yards and a touchdown out of him this week, which is good enough for 2QB leagues, but don’t stream him in standard leagues.
RBs
Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell: Remember that one time when Hue Jackson said they were going to get Johnson more touches? That was funny. He’s seen more than seven carries just once all season. He did out-carry Crowell for the first time all season in their Week 15 loss to the Ravens, which is a step in the right direction. Crowell’s five carries in that game was his lowest total all season, as was his 22 snaps. We don’t know if this was a one-time thing, as Crowell played 36 snaps the prior week, so this is troubling as we head into championship week. The Bears haven’t been a great matchup for running backs regardless, as they’re one of the only teams who’ve not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. In fact, there’s been just two running backs to top 75 yards on the ground against them. Oddsmakers see the Bears as a heavy-favorite, so it’s hard to like Crowell much, as he’s a heavy road underdog who doesn’t contribute much in the passing game, totaling just 21 yards through the air over the last six games. He’s just a touchdown-dependent RB3/RB4 who has scored in just two games all season. Johnson isn’t a great option, either, but he’s the preferred one who will have a similar role no matter the game-script. The Bears have allowed just 532 yards all season through the air to running backs, which ranks as the eighth-fewest, and just one touchdown, which ranks first. Johnson is just a low-end RB3 in standard leagues, but a solid RB3 in PPR formats.
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: There are going to be a lot of questions on my timeline this week about Howard, who has now ‘busted’ in three of the last four games, finishing with less than 40 rushing yards. But when searching for running backs to play, you want them at home as a heavy-favorite, which we have. On top of that, Howard happens to be extremely talented. The Browns have been much better than anticipated against the run this year, but have started to show holes in it over the second half of the season. From Weeks 1-8, they allowed 594 yards on 204 carries (2.91 YPC) with three touchdowns. Since that time, they’ve allowed 581 yards on 149 carries (3.90 YPC) with three touchdowns in two less games, including two 100-yard games to Leonard Fournette and Joe Mixon. Howard should be in lineups as an RB1. Cohen is more of a wildcard, though he’s in the fantasy conversation now that he’s played at least 35 percent of the snaps in each of the last five games. He’s totaled 26 touches over the last three weeks, though 12 of those touches were receptions, making him more appealing in PPR formats. There have been six running backs to total at least 35 yards through the air, making Cohen a risk/reward RB4.
WRs
Josh Gordon: Since returning three weeks ago, Gordon has been the go-to target for Kizer, though there hasn’t been a whole lot of ‘connecting’ between them. He’s seen 28 targets in those games, including 11 last week against the Ravens. The fact that he’s getting so many targets makes him a must-play, especially against the Bears who have allowed nine different wide receivers finish as the WR17 or better, and all but one of them was the No. 1 option in the passing-game, which Gordon clearly is. There have only been five wide receivers to see nine or more targets against the Bears, and they averaged 6.6 receptions for 73.2 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. They’ll ask Kyle Fuller to cover him the majority of the time, and while he has out-played expectations this year, he’s a player the Bears decided to bench for the full season in 2016, though they said it was injury-related. Bottom line, he’s not someone who can stop Gordon – only Kizer can do that. He’s a low-end WR2 who has a high ceiling in this game.
Corey Coleman: While I love me some Gordon, the Browns have gone too far away from Coleman, who has easily been their most efficient wide receiver this year. He’s now seen just 13 targets over the last three weeks, while Gordon has seen 28 targets. Heck, even Crowell has seen nine targets over the last three weeks. Because of that, Coleman comes with much more risk than he should. The Bears will have Prince Amukamara on him the majority of the day, and he’s been a surprise for the Bears, allowing just a 57 percent catch rate and one touchdown on 44 targets in coverage. He’s a big part of the reason that the Bears have been competent against the pass throughout the season, though 12 of the 16 passing touchdowns they have allowed have gone to wide receivers. Coleman is the definition of a high-risk WR4 and not one I’d go out of my way to play.
Dontrelle Inman: After totaling 22 targets over a three-week span from Week 10-12, Inman has become an afterthought in the Bears offense, totaling just four targets over the last three games combined. He did catch a touchdown on one of them, but he’s fallen out of favor to both Kendall Wright and Josh Bellamy, making him unplayable, even in a good matchup.
Kendall Wright: Nobody knows what changed or why it changed, but Wright has emerged as the clear No. 1 in the Bears offense, totaling 24 targets over the last two weeks, and turning them into 17 receptions for 188 yards. His snaps did jump from 54 percent in Week 13, to 62 and 67 percent over the last two weeks, so there are signs that show his production can be sustained. The issue here is that the Bears will resort to a run-heavy gameplan, which can leave Trubisky with just 25 or less attempts, as he’s done on four separate occasions this year. Because of that, Wright is still just a WR4 despite the target increase over the last two weeks.
TEs
David Njoku/Seth DeValve: Two tight ends splitting snaps and targets on an offense led by what might be the worst quarterback in football right now? No thank you. The Bears did allow a touchdown to Eric Ebron last week, but that was just the fourth one they’ve allowed this year, so it’s not as if you’re missing out on a good matchup or anything.
Adam Shaheen: He had to miss last week with a chest injury, but if he returns to practice and plays this week, he’s in the streaming conversation. The Browns have been a great target for streamers all season, as they’ve now allowed 12-of-14 tight ends to finish inside the top-15 for that particular week. That’s extremely hard to do with all of the bad tight ends out there, and Shaheen has shown promise in his limited playing time, hauling in 12 of his 14 targets for 127 yards, including three touchdowns. In his last game, he saw a season-high five targets, so pay attention to the practice reports. If he’s forced to miss again, Daniel Brown can be considered a really deep sleeper play at tight end.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Total: 53.0
Line: NO by 5.5
QBs
Matt Ryan: It’s been a down year for the reigning MVP, as he’s finished outside of the top-10 quarterbacks in 12-of-14 games. He only has two weeks outside the top-20, but both games have come in the last three weeks. Maybe part of the problem is throwing to Justin Hardy in the red zone more than anyone else? But hey, what do I know? The Saints have been a completely different defense than most expected, and are now a matchup to avoid if possible. They held Ryan to just 221 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions while at home two weeks ago, so what do we think he’s going to do on the road? Oddly enough, though, Ryan has played much better on the road this year, averaging 260 yards and 1.6 touchdowns, while averaging 238 yards and 1.0 touchdowns at home. If you go back and see the games where the Saints defense struggled, it was without their top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who is back and healthy for this game. He’s lived in the QB2 territory all season, which is where he’s at for the championship week. He does make a lot of sense in a tournament lineup, as this game could wind up being a shootout, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if that does happen.
Drew Brees: Similar to Ryan, Brees hasn’t been an elite fantasy option this year, though it’s had little to do with his play. He’s finished as a top-12 quarterback just four times this season, though it’s all in-part to his lack of passing attempts. He’s thrown the ball more than 36 times just once in the last eight games, which happened to be his second-best fantasy game of the year. The run-game has limited his upside, but he’s also one of the safest quarterbacks around, totaling at least 14 fantasy points in each of the last seven games. The Falcons have been among the worst pass defenses since back in Week 7. In that nine-game span, they have allowed at least 17.0 fantasy points to all but one quarterback, and that was Ryan Fitzpatrick, who scored 13.3 points. The running backs are going to do their thing, but I’m betting on Brees doing his as well. Consider him a QB1 for the championship game.
RBs
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman: It was good to see Freeman involved in the passing game once again, as it seems like the Falcons have tried to get too cute at times on offense. Freeman took a lot of big hits in that game, but popped right up after them and appears good to go. Coleman hadn’t cleared concussion protocol in time for this game, but it’s rare that a player misses multiple weeks from a concussion, so we have to assume he’s back in the lineup. The Saints have holes against the run and have allowed four different running backs run for more than 100 yards against them. Freeman himself finished with 91 yards and a touchdown against them just two weeks ago, and it was a continuance of what he did against them last year, totaling 246 yards on the ground in the two games against them, and another 136 yards through the air. There have been just seven running backs who’ve totaled more than 14 carries against the Saints, and each one of them was able to total at least 12.9 fantasy points, with six of them scoring at least 15 PPR points. Freeman should be in lineups as an RB1, while Coleman is just a flex-option.
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: There were some who questioned whether or not Kamara would receive a full workload in his return to the lineup, but there was literally no reason he wouldn’t. Returning from concussion is completely different than returning from a knee or shoulder injury. He totaled 18 touches against the Jets, so you likely understand that now. The last time these two played, Kamara racked up three catches for 25 yards in the first couple minutes before being knocked out of the game with a concussion. It was a smart gameplan against the Falcons, who allow the seventh-most yardage through the air to running backs, which is similar to last year when they allowed the most. In PPR formats, Kamara gets an even bigger bump knowing that the Falcons have allowed 94 receptions, the most in the league by a pretty wide margin. On the ground, the Falcons have allowed just five touchdowns this year, and two of them came to backup Peyton Barber in Week 12. Outside of him, they haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since back in Week 9. In fact, the Falcons have allowed just one running back to reach 80 rushing yards against them, and that was Jay Ajayi back in Week 6. This game should favor Kamara, though Ingram is still a must-play. Both are RB1’s, but if you made me choose, it’s Kamara.
WRs
Julio Jones: It’s to the point now where we shouldn’t even be surprised that Jones doesn’t get valuable red zone targets. Even when he does, the ball is out of his reach like it was against the Bucs where Ryan didn’t even give him a chance to catch the ball. Jones now has 57 yards or less in three of his last six games, though it’s hard to put the blame on him. As a fantasy owner, you have to trot him out there, but this isn’t a week where you should expect a monster performance against Marshon Lattimore. He’s been a rookie of the year candidate all season, and held Jones to five catches for 98 yards on 11 targets just a few weeks ago. The reason you play Jones is because if the Saints continue to trust Lattimore in one-on-one coverage against Jones, he’ll get burned. You need help with Jones, as the Bucs did throughout Monday night, bracketing him with a cornerback and safety. In a game that means so much, Jones had better be a big part of the gameplan.
Mohamed Sanu: Even in a great matchup, Ryan couldn’t get anything going against the Bucs, leading to another weak performance out of Sanu. He’s now finished with 43 yards or less in five of the last seven games, making him a risky play, even in good matchups. The Saints present a much tougher matchup for the Falcons, but Sanu has the best matchup of the bunch. Of the six top-12 performances the Saints have allowed, four of them have gone to slot receivers, including Sanu. He posted 6/83/1 against them just two weeks ago, and not much has changed in his outlook. Jones will match-up with a healthy Lattimore, while Taylor Gabriel will see a lot of Ken Crawley, leaving Sterling Moore on Sanu. Consider him a WR3 in what looks to be a great matchup on paper, though he comes with risk (as you saw last week).
Michael Thomas: We had talked about it throughout the entire season, telling you to buy Thomas before he caught fire. Well, it’s happened. He’s now finished with at least 70 yards AND a touchdown in each of the last three games, and that doesn’t even tell the whole story. He had two touchdowns reversed last week, before catching another one late in the game. He’s now totaled at least 70 yards in 10 of his last 13 games, a number that’s hard for most wide receivers to hit more than a handful of times all season. His consistency is ridiculous, and the Falcons don’t have a way to stop that. They have allowed three top-24 wide receivers in the last two weeks, including Thomas himself when he posted a season-high 10 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. That was with Kamara out for the majority of the game, so don’t expect those numbers again, but he’s locked in as a WR1.
Ted Ginn: It was odd to hear that Ginn would be out last week, as it didn’t seem like his injury was that serious. Apparently, he’s not a guarantee to be in the lineup for this game, either. When playing in a championship game, the last thing you want is a player who’s playing at less than 100 percent, especially one who has been as volatile as Ginn has. There are reasons to like him against a Falcons secondary that has been struggling, but nothing more than a desperation WR4 if he does suit up. He’s finished with 27 yards or less in three of his last five games.
TEs
Austin Hooper: As mentioned here for weeks, Hooper is not a tight end that you want to trust with your fantasy lives. He’s simply not there yet. The Falcons have seemed to grasp this as well, now that he’s seen just 10 targets over the last three weeks combined. He’s failed to top 38 yards in each of the last five games, and hasn’t scored since back in Week 10. When playing him, you’re essentially betting on a touchdown, which is something the Saints have only allowed four of this year to the tight end position, and just one since Week 6. He’s not a recommended play.
Josh Hill: We’ve unfortunately lost the whole “start Drew Brees‘ tight end” guarantee that we had for so long, as he’s moved on to better things. Hill has maxed out at three targets since taking over for Coby Fleener, not nearly enough to consider starting him. He’s yet to top 29 yards in a game, so even if he did score, it’d feel pretty empty. The odds of him scoring is low to begin with, so feel free to avoid tight ends in this game.
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 43.0
Line: DET by 5.0
QBs
Matthew Stafford: It’s kind of crazy how predictable Stafford is year-over-year, finishing in low-end QB1 territory seemingly every year. He’s right there again, sitting as the QB10 after 14 games played. He’s had just three games with more than 18 fantasy points, but just two games with less than 13 fantasy points, meaning you can pretty much lock him in for low-end QB1/high-end QB2 territory. This week, however, you may want to put him higher on your priority list with the way the Bengals have been playing. Over the last three weeks, they have allowed 69-of-97 passes to be completed (71.1 percent) for 797 yards (8.22 YPA) with five touchdowns. It doesn’t help that they were without Adam Jones, Dre Kirkpatrick, or Vontaze Burfict, but we don’t even know if they’ll return for this game. The game will be taking place in Cincinnati, so the weather may be a factor. If choosing between Stafford and someone else, take a look at the practice report to see if Kirkpatrick or Burfict is going to play (Jones is on IR), as well as the weather. For now, let’s pencil in Stafford as a solid low-end QB1.
Andy Dalton: Nobody ever wants to say that a team quit on their coach, but this Bengals team looks awful over the last few weeks, including Dalton. He’s been benched in back-to-back games after completing just 25-of-51 passes for 254 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions against the Bears and Vikings. Now granted, those weren’t great quarterback matchups, but Dalton has looked awful. The Lions have been a matchup to target as of late, allowing at least 16.4 fantasy points to six of the last seven quarterbacks to play against them. The only one who didn’t was Mitch Trubisky last week, as he finished with 314 yards and a touchdown, but also threw three interceptions. If there was a matchup that was made to get back on track, this is the one, but this Bengals team just seems too far gone at this point, making Dalton a risky QB2. If you want to get some exposure to his upside, just do it in DFS, as he makes for an interesting tournament option.
RBs
Ameer Abdullah and Tion Green: As of this moment, you shouldn’t be expecting Theo Riddick to play, as he apparently hurt his wrist last week. Don’t forget that he had to have surgery on both of his wrists this offseason. Green totaled 10 carries in the win over the Bears in Week 15, but will he continue to carry the load over Abdullah, even after a mediocre performance? The Bengals have been gashed by running backs without Burfict in the lineup, allowing 327 yards and three touchdowns on the ground over the last two weeks. If Burfict misses another game, this becomes a backfield to target, though we need to pay attention to what head coach Jim Caldwell is saying about who is starting as the week goes on. As of now, I’ll assume that Abdullah takes Riddick’s role, while Green gets 10-15 carries. Both roles can have value, though I’d feel better playing Abdullah, because there’s a chance he goes back to the lead back, while Green is just ‘a guy’ to them. The reason you can’t get too excited about either is because their offensive line is in shambles, and may be down three of their five starters for this game. If Riddick is out, Abdullah can be looked at as an RB3 who should do some work in the passing game, while Green is just an RB4.
Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard: Here’s to hoping that we see Mixon back on the field this week, as he failed to pass concussion protocol for the second straight week. It left Bernard with 14 carries against the Vikings, though it led to just 30 yards. He did score, but it was far from a successful performance that would eat into Mixon’s workload. At this point, Mixon should be well-rested and ready to rock against the Lions, who have now allowed 14 rushing touchdowns on the season, including 11 of them in their last nine games, which is behind only the Bills. The Bengals have to stay competitive in this game in order for Mixon to have an RB1 ceiling, which could prove to be a chore for them after watching the last two games. Meanwhile, the Lions are in a playoff race and trying to win a wild card berth. If Mixon suits up, you have to play him as a high-end RB2 who should score. Bernard should go right back to his role of 5-8 touches per game and not fantasy relevant in the championship week. If for some reason Mixon can’t go, Bernard becomes a must-play RB2.
WRs
Marvin Jones: Despite seeing 10 fewer targets than his teammate Tate, Jones has accumulated 85 more yards and four more touchdowns than him. I know they play different roles, but it’s a pretty big difference, something that wasn’t the case in 2016. With that being said, his production has slowed down a bit as of late. After seeing 36 targets over a three-game stretch from Week 6-9, Jones has averaged just 5.8 targets per game since then. A big part of that is the emergence of Ebron as a weapon in the offense who is seeing more and more targets, as is Tate. Jones is still Stafford’s safety blanket and the one he’ll throw to in most one-on-one situations, though you’ll want to pay attention to the injury report for the Bengals. If Dre Kirkpatrick misses another week, Jones is a must-play low-end WR2, whereas if he plays, Jones is more of a WR3 who comes with some risk, though I’d still likely play him.
Golden Tate: While Jones has seen his targets dip a little bit, Tate has seen his rise, totaling at least eight targets in three of the last four games. The Bengals have been forced to slide Darqueze Dennard to the perimeter with Dre Kirkpatrick out the last two weeks, which has left them starting Josh Shaw and KeiVarae Russell in the slot, who have allowed all seven targets in coverage to be completed over the last two weeks. Dennard isn’t very good himself, but if he’s forced to cover the outside, Tate is going to tear this defense to shreds. If Kirkpatrick is out, Tate is a must-play high-end WR2. If Kirkpatrick plays, Tate is in the high-end WR3 conversation who should still be played.
A.J. Green: For as much as everyone will blame the matchup with Xavier Rhodes, he wasn’t the reason that Green wound up with just two catches for 40 yards – Dalton was. Green saw just four targets in Week 15, making it impossible for him to do much of anything, and though we don’t want to believe that will happen again, he’s got another tough matchup in Week 16. He’s going to be covered by Darius Slay, who has done a fine job this year in coverage, and hasn’t allowed a touchdown since back in Week 6. The Lions do use him in shadow coverage, so he’s going to be covering Green all game long. As I mentioned last week, that just because a cornerback is talented, it doesn’t mean that you automatically bench him. Green is a better wide receiver than Slay is a cornerback, but that’s not the issue we’re dealing with right now. We’re wondering whether or not Dalton is competent enough to get him the ball. If I have Green, I’m playing him, but lowering my expectations to the WR2 area.
Brandon LaFell: If you’re looking for a wide receiver to get you 24-55 yards and a touchdown every fourth game or so, LaFell is your guy. In all seriousness, he’s not someone I’ll ever feel comfortable recommending because he’s like the Frank Gore of fantasy wide receivers, only worse. With Darius Slay matched up with Green, it should give LaFell opportunities against Nevin Lawson, which is an above average matchup. If you want to play him, do so in a DFS lineup. I’d hate for your fantasy season to hinge on him.
TEs
Eric Ebron: The streak continued in Week 15, as Ebron finished with at least 33 yards for an eighth-straight week. Again, if this were a wide receiver (like Brandon LaFell), we wouldn’t care. But at tight end, such a volatile position, we do. He’s now seen seven or more targets in three of his last five games, and has produced results with them, so there’s little reason to believe it stops here. The Bengals haven’t been a matchup to target with tight ends, but also not one to avoid, either. They have allowed 10 different tight ends to accumulate more than 30 yards against them, which is right in Ebron’s wheelhouse. They have only allowed four touchdowns to the position, so it’s not a week where I’d consider him a TE1, but more a high-end, high-floor TE2.
Tyler Kroft: He went from someone who looked like a great Tyler Eifert replacement, to one the Bengals refuse to use. He’s seen just 14 targets over the last five games combined, and hasn’t topped 30 yards since Week 9. He did have a nasty drop in Week 15, so that’s not going to help his target share going forward. The matchup against the Lions is a great one if you’re hunting for a touchdown, as the Lions have turned back to their 2016 ways, allowing a touchdown seemingly every week. They have now allowed five tight end touchdowns in the last five games, so Kroft might pop back up on the radar this week. He does, after all, have five touchdowns this year. Consider him a middling TE2 who has a better opportunity than most to score.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Total: 46.5
Line: CAR by 10.0
QBs
Jameis Winston: He played what might have been his best game of the season last week, even though the Bucs lost at home to the Falcons. He threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns despite not having ANY tight end for almost half the game. Most don’t realize what that does to an offense, but Winston looked very poised during the game. He also didn’t have DeSean Jackson for a majority of the game, making his performance all that much better. The Panthers defense has started to slip against opposing pass games, and have now allowed 13 passing touchdowns in their last six games. They’re also going to be without linebacker Thomas Davis for this game, who was suspended for his dirty hit on Davante Adams. When these two teams played back in Week 8, Winston threw for just 210 yards with two interceptions, though that was when he was dealing with some shoulder pain. While the Panthers have gone in a different direction since that game, so has Winston, who has now thrown seven touchdowns in his last three games. This is a division matchup, so the teams know each other very well, and the Panthers are still fighting for the playoffs, though they’re likely in. Winston threw just one touchdown in each of their matchups against each other last year, so we must temper expectations against a similar defense, though the loss of Davis is impactful. Consider Winston a high-end QB2.
Cam Newton: The swagger is back for Newton, as he’s playing with more confidence than he’s had all year. Knowing that the Bucs are coming to town, I don’t think it’s going anywhere. He’s now finished with at least 17.5 fantasy points in five of his last six games, including four games over 20 points, and two games over 30 points. Yeah, that’s pretty good. The Bucs defense has been a shell of what they were supposed to be, and injuries have made it even worse. Going back to their Week 8 meeting where Newton threw for just 154 yards and one touchdown in Tampa Bay, you need to understand how different the Bucs have been at home and on the road this year. They’ve allowed just 17.7 points per game at home, but 30.3 points per game on the road, which is the most in the NFL. They’ve now allowed five different quarterbacks rush for at least 22 yards against them, including Newton himself when he ran for 44 yards. He’s an elite QB1 this week and one that seems to have Greg Olsen back to full speed.
RBs
Peyton Barber and Doug Martin: Who knows what the Bucs are going to do at this point, but I’ll tell you one thing – you don’t want to trust either of them if you can help it. After forcing Martin to miss a game for violating team rules, Dirk Koetter came out after the game and said, “we’re past that now.” What does that mean? Like the team has moved on? Or that they’re past that and are now going back to Martin as the starter? I’d assume that Barber is the one to score more fantasy points this week, but the Panthers have still yet to allow a running back total more than 85 yards on the ground, and neither Martin or Barber are heavily involved in the passing game. This game-script can go the wrong way really quick, making both of them less-than-ideal options. The Panthers’ opponents have averaged just 21.6 carries per game, which is the second-lowest in the NFL, so if there’s even the slightest timeshare between the two, all hope goes out the window. Barber is a high-risk RB4, while Martin isn’t playable.
Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey: Did you know that Stewart ranks 14th among running backs in carries this year? Most would be shocked to learn that, but it’s why he’s remained in the fantasy picture, even with the wide receiver McCaffrey. Stewart ranks just 39th in PPR points among running backs though, not showing much efficiency with his touches. For those wondering, he’s 28th in standard leagues, so not much better there. This matchup against the Bucs has come at the perfect time, though. They have now allowed seven rushing touchdowns over their last four games, and it’s actually eight if we include Devonta Freeman‘s fumble touchdown last week. Yes, two rushing touchdowns in each of the last four games, and it’s not likely to get better without run-stuffer Gerald McCoy on the defensive line. Six running backs have been able to score multiple touchdowns against them this year, so Stewart is likely to hit pay dirt at least once. Because of that, he’s in play as a low-end RB2. McCaffrey shouldn’t be needed as much this week, as the Panthers are likely to coast over the Bucs. Seeing that he’s finished with eight or less carries in all but three games isn’t ideal, but he’s still going to line up out wide and catch some passes. He’s scored at least 5.2 standard points in each of his last seven games, including at least 9.7 points in five of them. He’s a high-floor RB2 in standard leagues, but a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in PPR formats.
WRs
Mike Evans: If you follow me on Twitter, you would’ve seen my tweet Sunday morning saying that if you own Evans, you start him. He should’ve had two touchdowns on Monday night, but the one was called off due to a tic-tac penalty that the broadcast team blew out of proportion. Whatever the case, Evans is perfectly fine and should be targeted a ton this week with Jackson and the tight ends ailing. There have been four wide receivers who’ve seen more than 10 targets against the Panthers, and here were their totals: Jermaine Kearse 7/105/1, Adam Thielen 6/105/1, Julio Jones 6/118/0, and Randall Cobb 7/84/1. Considering Evans should reach that level of targets, you should be starting him as a WR1 again.
DeSean Jackson: We don’t know if Jackson will be able to suit up for this game, after he played just 22 snaps in Week 15. In fact, if we go back to Week 14, he played just 30-of-71 possible snaps in that game, so it appears this is an injury that he’s been trying to play through. I wouldn’t be shocked if they trot him out there as a decoy against the Panthers, but I wouldn’t rely on him for the fantasy championship. There’s simply too much risk, as his production was unstable even when healthy.
Devin Funchess: There are a lot of upset fantasy owners after last week’s one-catch, 19-yard performance against the Packers last week, but you have to understand that happens with even the best of wide receivers. Not that Funchess is among the best, but you know what I’m saying. Fortunately, he’s got another positive matchup this week against the Bucs, whose cornerbacks are Brent Grimes (5-foot-10) and Robert McClain (5-foot-9). This is your reminder that Funchess is 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds. The last time these two teams played, Kelvin Benjamin was still on the team and finished with 3/39/1 against them, even though Newton had a terrible game. Newton has his swag back and should find Funchess for a touchdown in this game. He’s a rock-solid WR2 despite what happened last week.
Damiere Byrd: After looking like he could be a player in the preseason, Byrd suffered an arm injury that kept him out for much of the season. Over the last two weeks, he’s starting to see an extended role, as he’s totaled nine targets, turning them into eight catches for 62 yards and two touchdowns. His snap percentage over the last three weeks has gone like this: 40, 59, 66. It’s obviously trending in the right direction, and with Russell Shepard dealing with a shoulder injury, we may see him in a full-time role against the Bucs, making him an interesting last-ditch WR4/WR5 who can step-up in a pinch.
TEs
Cameron Brate: It appears unlikely that O.J. Howard will be able to go this week, as he was spotted in a walking boot after Monday night’s game against the Falcons, meaning that Brate would see an increased role. That leads to the other issue, which is Brate’s knee, as he was forced to miss almost the entire first half, though he returned to the game to finish with four catches for 49 yards. If he’s okay and practices for a majority of the week, he’s a solid streaming option against the Panthers. They’ve allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends on the season, including multiple touchdowns to both Zach Ertz and Darren Fells. Brate totaled 64 yards on five targets against them earlier in the season, and that was with Howard playing the majority of snaps. Brate should be played as a low-end TE1 who can surprise. The fact that the Panthers will be without linebacker Thomas Davis also helps matters.
Greg Olsen: After completely dogging him, saying that he was playing with an injury similar to Sammy Watkins‘ last year, Olsen went out and silenced all doubters with a nine-catch, 116-yard, one touchdown performance against what was the league’s best defense against tight ends. After that game, they moved back to No. 6 on the list. He apparently got over the mental portion of his injury, which can sometimes be the most difficult part, so go ahead and put him into lineups as a TE1 against the Bucs, who actually rank No. 2 against tight ends on the season. It’s because they’ve only allowed three touchdowns to them on the year, though, as we saw Eric Ebron rack up 10 catches for 94 yards against them just two weeks ago. There’s game-script concern for him, but he can also be a part of what turns the game upside-down.
