For all the added convenience of an online draft, it also creates conformity for those without the conviction to use personal evaluations over the default rankings. Fantasy novices and experts alike can succumb to the framing effect and follow the host’s lead.

Suddenly you’re considering someone you ranked 135 at pick 130 because he’s listed at 115. Don’t follow the herd. Instead, use these biases to your advantage.

While CBS has not posted default site rankings, I conducted a mock draft on Saturday to see how everyone is ordered in the draft room. I found a lot of potholes to drive around, most of which followed a few trends. Let’s look at some players I won’t touch at their listed prices, compared to my rankings, before examining those patterns.

 
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Eliminating Potential Value

I don’t believe in the concept of “Do Not Draft” lists, so please don’t treat this as such. There are a few names I’ve already selected, or at least targeted, in drafts on other platforms.

A few days ago, I inducted Jay Bruce into the All-Boring Team as a strong power source with a 161 ADP in 2018 NFBC drafts. On CBS, however, you’ll have to pay sticker price for last year’s 36 homers without the discount associated with his 2014 and 2015 doldrums. He’s a great value around 150, but an unnecessary overpay at 88.

Sporting a career 25.0 K-BB percentage and 0.94 WHIP, Sean Doolittle makes a great closer target for those who miss on the top guys. On CBS, where you’ll have to take him around the same territory as Felipe Rivero, wait for Brad Hand instead.

I thought I aggressively ranked David Price at 90, but CBS jumps him two full rounds over Aaron Nola at 76. Feel free to pursue the former Cy Young Award winner in Yahoo drafts, where he’s conversely under-ranked at 128.

Catchers and Closers

Standard CBS leagues use two catchers, and I tailored my rankings for one. That does not entirely excuse some of these slottings. Buster Posey’s home runs and ISO have dropped in each of the past three years, so he’d only be worth a top-50 pick in a three-catcher format.

Salvador Perez holds a 93 ADP in NFBC drafts that also deploy two starting catchers, so 76 presents too much inflation for a solid compiler. For those seeking one top option, Evan Gattis, Yadier Molina, and Wilson Ramos do not suffer the same seismic inflation.

There’s no such rationale for seven relievers making this list. Fernando Rodney, Shane Greene, and Brad Ziegler are quintessential “Saves are saves” picks, but those ratio-damaging closers should only get snagged near the end of drafts. Either gamble on a bounce-back candidate (Kelvin Herrera, Jeurys Familia) or someone with top-10 closer upside if given the role (Archie Bradley, Blake Parker) instead of going with Green or Rodney in the top 200.

On the other end, CBS seems to be assuming too much closer security for Greg Holland and Brandon Morrow. Still, without a team in March, it’s time to bump Holland down the rankings. Even if he gets a ninth-inning role before April, the 32-year-old is far from a top-tier lock after posting an 11.1 walk percentage and 3.72 FIP in 2017.

Unless the Cubs sign Holland, Morrow looks poised to open the season as their closer. This price, however, does not account for severe injury risk magnified by working 14 postseason games.

Maybe A.J. Minter winds up wrestling the closing job away from Arodys Vizcaino. He’s a fine flier to conclude a deeper draft, but 262 is way too high for a rookie middle reliever who impressed in 15 innings. Addison Reed doesn’t even make the top 500.

Not Buying Career Years

Aaron Judge isn’t challenging Mike Trout for the top spot after smashing 52 bombs. Zach Davies isn’t close to a top-25 starter because of his 17 wins.

The community is collectively smarter about not paying for career years. Extreme skepticism has even turned some into solid values. Anyone who drafted Jose Ramirez last year is happily nodding in agreement.

Yet CBS is far bolder in forecasting repeats on 2017 breakouts. NFBC drafters are aggressively pursuing Tommy Pham (59 ADP), but CBS vaults him up to 37. In a league where drafters are beholden to the site’s ranks, Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain offer superior five-category value after moving to Milwaukee.

Scooter Gennett’s 143 spot towers ahead of his 201 NFBC ADP. A 20.8 HR/FB rate guided his sudden power surge, which didn’t feature any success against lefties, so don’t be surprised if he tallies 17 homers-which would still be good for the second-highest mark of his career-instead of 27.

Whit Merrifield’s breakout better be legit to take him around pick 61. Let’s exude some caution on a 29-year-old who hit .274 in the minors with no more than 10 home runs in a single season before last year’s 22 (including three in Triple-A). Interestingly enough, Chris Taylor is conversely placed outside the top 100 after his sensational season.

Paying for the Name

There’s another 2017 star CBS isn’t buying. Justin Smoak resides at 133, a whopping 79 spots behind Miguel Cabrera. It’s one thing to take the former Triple Crown masher at even cost, but receiving 75 percent of the old Cabrera won’t do at 54.

At that rate, he needs another .300, 30-homer campaign to justify the risk of taking a 34-year-old with back issues who hit .249/.329/.399 last season. I wouldn’t mind taking the plunge in Round 9, but let someone else worry about him in Round 5.

This is one of several cases of name value guiding a generous ranking. Unless the Giants decide they need to overpay one more veteran past his prime, no landing spot makes Jake Arrieta intriguing at 79. Citing his declining velocity, whiffs, and ground balls with a rising home-run rate, I highlighted my skepticism back in February.

Unless he signs this week, the veteran probably won’t log enough spring reps to be ready for Opening Day. He’ll slide further outside my top 100 if he doesn’t find a landing spot in the next few days.

What’s the fair price on a 34-year-old pitcher who posted a 4.61 FIP and 8.5 K-BB percentage with a fastball that yielded an .872 OPS? Definitely not 187. Good luck finding an entire league of competitors who rank Cole Hamels ahead of Garrett Richards, Kevin Gausman, and Dinelson Lamet like CBS. Although there’s a bit of bounce-back potential at his 236 NFBC ADP, the pitching pool is littered with too many high-upside arms to take a worn-down reclamation project in the top 200.

2018 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid

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