The Primer: Week 11 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

Total: 47.5
Line: ATL by 3.0

QBs
Dak Prescott: Over his last six games, Prescott has proven worthy of streamer status, averaging 238.7 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions, 28.5 rushing yards, and 0.5 rushing touchdowns. That all adds up to 19.4 fantasy points per game, which would be more than Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson have averaged this year. Crazy, right? And that’s without Amari Cooper on his team for four of those games. Now he heads into a matchup with the Falcons who have allowed each of the last eight quarterbacks they’ve played to rack up at least 16.4 fantasy points, including 7-of-8 to post at least 20.7 points. Not one quarterback has finished outside of the top-15 for that particular week, including Baker Mayfield‘s QB5 performance in Week 10. The only quarterback who hasn’t thrown for 300-plus yards against them during this stretch was Ben Roethlisberger in a game where he threw just 29 passes, but netted 250 yards and three touchdowns. While in Atlanta, opponents are averaging a league-high 42.8 pass attempts per game. While Prescott isn’t likely to reach that level of attempts, he might set a new season-high that currently sits at 36 (which was Week 10). He’s one of the best streamers in Week 10 and should be considered a solid low-end QB1.

Matt Ryan: Who would’ve thought that Ryan’s least efficient game of the season would come against the Browns, who were without multiple starters. It was just a bad game for them as a team, but they’ll look to get past it really quick against a Cowboys team that’s been somewhat underrated this year. They’ve yet to allow a team to score more than 28 points and have held 6-of-9 teams to 20 points or less. There’s this tidbit, though: 9, 27, 15, 20, 16, 29, 26, 28, 21. You might be looking at those numbers and wondering what they mean. It’s each of their opponent’s points-per-game ranking this year. So we’re clear, they’ve played just one team who’s been a top-12 scoring offense and that was way back against the Panthers in Week 1. The Falcons bring something they haven’t seen this year and it’ll be difficult for the Cowboys to contain the pass-catchers they have. The Cowboys have allowed a rather-high 69.7 percent completion rate, which suits Ryan well, though they haven’t allowed many plays down the field, as there’s been a league-low 23 pass-plays that have gone for more than 20 yards against them. Knowing that the Falcons had an ‘off week’ and Ryan still managed to finish as a QB1 should tell you a lot. He’s now thrown for at least 330 yards in six of his last seven games and is someone you should slot into lineups without thinking twice about it.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: After struggling to do much of anything against the Redskins and Titans, Elliott exploded in his toughest game of the year against the Eagles where he compiled 187 total yards and two touchdowns. He’s totaled at least 17 touches in every game, no matter the gamescript, making him an elite every-week option despite the struggles on the Cowboys offensive line. The Falcons are fresh off a game in which they allowed rookie Nick Chubb to demolish them for 209 total yards and two touchdowns, while allowing another 46 yards and a touchdown to Duke Johnson. They’d been playing better against the run with Grady Jarrett on the field, but they had another bad day in Week 10. Most teams have issues getting a whole bunch of volume on the ground against the Falcons as they’re often not able to when trying to keep pace, but of the seven running backs who’ve seen at least 13 touches against them, they’ve all totaled at least 18.2 PPR points and finished as a top-12 running back. The 4.86 yards per carry they allow ranks as the seventh-most in the league, and the 158.5 PPR points they’ve allowed through the air to them ranks as the second-most in the league. We know Elliott is getting 13-plus touches and he’s averaging 5.3 targets per game, so let’s do the math. He’s an elite RB1 play this week and could finish as the top running back on the board.

Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith: It was a massive disappointment to see Coleman finish with just 63 total yards on 14 touches in Week 10 against the Browns, as it was a plus-matchup against a team who has been getting crushed against the run as of late. The scary part is that Coleman is in more of a timeshare than most realize, as he’s played just 57 percent of the snaps in three of the last four games, which is close to Tarik Cohen territory. He’s seeing a consistent 12-18 touches per game this year without Devonta Freeman, so he’s still someone who’s going to deliver RB2 numbers more often than not. The Cowboys played well without Sean Lee last week, as they held the Eagles running backs to just 64 scoreless yards on 14 carries, though they’re definitely better with him on the field. He’s going to miss a few more weeks, so Coleman does have a slight upgrade. They’ve allowed just 3.26 yards per carry with him in the lineup, while allowing 3.90 yards per carry with him out of the lineup. The only running back to crack 100 yards against them was Chris Carson in a game he received 32 carries. The area to beat the Cowboys is through the air, as there’ve been nine different running backs to total 20 or more receiving yards, including five of them who were able to crack 40 yards. Over the last four games, we’ve seen Coleman out-target Smith 14-9, so he’s the one who should continue to lead this backfield. Consider Coleman a mediocre RB2, while Smith is in the low-end RB3/high-end RB4 conversation with six teams on their bye.

WRs
Amari Cooper: We now have a two-game sample for Cooper and it’s looking good so far in his new life with the Cowboys as he’s seen 18 targets in those games. The best part is that he’s delivering with those targets despite the lack of knowledge in the offense and rapport with his quarterback. He’s tallied 11 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown, though it could’ve been more if Prescott hadn’t missed him down the sideline when he had his corner beat by multiple yards. The Falcons present another plus-matchup, as they’ve allowed plenty of performance on a per-target basis, as the 2.01 PPR points per target to wide receivers ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. They don’t have a shutdown cornerback that they’ll attempt to shadow Cooper with, and that’s the reason we’ve seen six wide receivers top 100 yards against them through nine games. Knowing that Cooper has double the targets of any other Cowboys pass-catcher over the last two weeks should give you confidence when inserting him as a rock-solid WR2 this week who comes with WR1 upside.

Michael Gallup: There are many blunders by the Cowboys organization over the last few years, but you have to give them credit for moving to Gallup in a full-time role despite paying Allen Hurns to be that player this offseason. Talent evaluation is one thing, but benching a guy you paid $12 million to this offseason is showing the ability to move on, and Gallup is the clear-cut No. 2 receiver as he’s played 105 snaps over the last two weeks compared to just 33 for Hurns. The Falcons haven’t been a team to shy away from with opposing wide receivers, as they’ve allowed 19 performances of double-digit PPR days to wide receivers, which is the most in the NFL. Gallup is clearly the No. 2 option behind Cooper, but he’s now totaled 14 targets over the last three weeks and will only get better as a receiver with experience. He’s obviously not a sure thing considering he’s still yet to finish a game with more than three receptions, but in a potential shootout where opponents have averaged a league-high 42.8 pass attempts, he could see more volume than ever. He’s an upside WR4/5 option this week.

Cole Beasley: After allowing Adam Humphries 82 yards, Sterling Shepard 167 yards, and Maurice Harris 124 yards in the previous three weeks, the Falcons held Jarvis Landry to just 22 yards on five targets in Week 10. Those are all slot-heavy wide receivers, which is obviously where Beasley plays. Brian Poole is the cornerback who’ll be tasked with defending him, which has been a plus-matchup for many receivers, though we can’t feel too confident starting Beasley, as he’s totaled just nine targets and 53 yards in the two games since Cooper arrived and it appears that Prescott doesn’t seem to want to check-down as much. Beasley is the type of guy you want to look at if the other pass-catchers have a tough matchup, but they don’t, so he’s just a semi high-floor WR5 for this game.

Julio Jones: The Falcons have played nine games this year, yet Jones has already cracked 1,000 yards receiving. Not just that, but Jones also tallied 10,000 yards for his career in that game, doing it in just his 103rd career game, setting an NFL record. It was previously held by Calvin Johnson, who reached that mark in his 115th game. Think about that for a minute. Jones tallied 10,000 yards in 12 fewer games than any other wide receiver in history. That’s nearly a full NFL season. He also scored for a second straight game, so that’s nice, too. The Cowboys defense has kept a lot of receivers in check this year, though as mentioned in the Ryan notes, they haven’t played the most potent of offenses this year. Probably his closest comp we can use against the Cowboys this year is DeAndre Hopkins who totaled nine catches for 151 yards, though he was one of just two wide receivers to total more than 83 yards against them all season (other was Golden Tate with 132 yards). This is a crazy stat, but one worth sharing. It took an average of 13.6 PPR points to finish as a top-24 receiver last year. The Cowboys have allowed just four wide receivers hit that mark all season, which is the best in the NFL. I’m still starting Jones as a WR1 here but might be a bit more concerned about Ridley in this matchup.

Calvin Ridley: After his breakout game in Week 3, Ridley hasn’t topped 71 yards and he hasn’t topped six targets in 6-of-7 games in that time. With Jones on the team, he’s not going to see double-digit targets unless Ryan throws the ball a ton, though he hasn’t needed to with the efficiency. As mentioned in the Jones section, the Cowboys have allowed just two wide receivers top 83 yards against them this year, while allowing just four wide receivers top 13.6 PPR points against them all year, which is the lowest mark in the league. He’s going to see the majority of Chidobe Awuzie in coverage this week, the cornerback who’s struggled most on the team, allowing a 77 percent catch-rate and three touchdowns on 47 targets in coverage. The Falcons do move Ridley and Jones around quite a bit, so they’ll both get snaps against Awuzie. If you want to fade Jones in tournaments, Ridley makes sense considering that his usual alignment would put him against Awuzie on roughly 45-50 percent of his snaps. He should continue to be plugged-in as a WR3, though it’s unlikely that both him and Jones have massive fantasy days.

Mohamed Sanu: After seeing his snap numbers dip to the 49-63 percent range over Weeks 6-9 as he dealt with a hip injury, Sanu played a season-high 93.3 percent of the snaps against the Browns last week. He also saw eight targets, which was his second highest total of the season, so it’s fair to say he’s healthy. His matchup with Anthony Brown is a good one, too, as he’s been struggling in coverage over the last seven games, allowing 17-of-24 passing for 242 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. As you can see, he hasn’t been targeted much, but that’s likely due to their opponents averaging just 32.7 pass attempts per game, which ranks as the sixth-lowest in the league. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule to this point, and we’ve seen Golden Tate, Keke Coutee, Dede Westbrook, and Jaron Brown all score touchdowns against them from the slot. He’s an interesting play who should get back to his usual high-floor WR4-type numbers.

TEs
Geoff Swaim: It was good to see Swaim back on the field for the Cowboys, as I think he’s head and shoulders above Dalton Schultz at this point in their careers. Swaim has totaled just 11 targets over his last four games, but Prescott had limited volume in those games, something that likely won’t be the case this week, as quarterbacks average a league-high 42.8 pass attempts in Atlanta. Despite losing both starting safeties and a middle linebacker this season, the Falcons have held it together against tight ends, allowing just the 20th-most fantasy points per game to them. They’ve allowed a tight end touchdown once every 20.7 targets, which again ranks as the 20th in the NFL. Of the five tight ends who posted a top-12 performance against them, all of them totaled at least four receptions, a number Swaim hasn’t hit since back in Week 3. With Cooper on the roster, it’ll take some of those opportunities away from him, though knowing he’s their primary tight end who plays 88 percent of the snaps, he’s on the TE2 radar in this game.

Austin Hooper: The Falcons offense has done a phenomenal job at attacking the weakest point of their opponent’s defense this year, as Hooper’s games have been somewhat easy to predict. His three big games of the year came against the Panthers (rank 32nd against tight ends), Bucs (31st), and Browns (24th) defenses. So, when looking at the matchup against the Cowboys who rank as the 13th-best team against the position, it’s probably not the best time to suggest playing Hooper. Some will point to Zach Ertz‘s 14-catch, 145-yard, two-touchdown performance against them as a reason to start him, but outside of that game, they’ve allowed just two top-10 performances to tight ends (Evan Engram 7/67/1, Jonnu Smith 2/33/1). While their competition has been weak for the most part, the tight end position isn’t a clear weakness for their team, making Hooper a middling TE2 who does come with more upside than most in that range.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Total: 51.0
Line: NYG by 1.0

QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick: He’s now started and finished five games this season, and has totaled at least 400 yards passing in four of them. It didn’t seem to matter much against the Redskins, as his 400 yards passing led to just three points on offense because he was intercepted in the end zone and then fumbled on the goal-line. Dirk Koetter named him the starter on Monday, so he didn’t waver about who to play this week. Koetter also took over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Todd Monken, which makes little sense because the offensive production hasn’t been the problem with the team. Against the Giants, it may be both Koetter’s and Fitzpatrick’s final stand if they cannot put points on the board. Despite being one of the favorites for the No. 1 overall pick, the Giants secondary has held 6-of-9 quarterbacks to 250 yards or less, and has allowed multiple passing touchdowns just three times. They have allowed the second-most rushing yards (208) to quarterbacks this year, and Fitzpatrick has quietly had four games with 23-plus rushing yards. The reason to trust Fitzpatrick in this matchup is because the Giants don’t have the talent at cornerback necessary to cover the Bucs receivers, as they’re currently starting Janoris Jenkins (hasn’t been good), undrafted rookie Grant Haley, and career 111.6 QB Rating in-coverage B.W. Webb. Fitzpatrick is in the low-end QB1 conversation, though we’ll also want to pay attention to the weather conditions given the time of year.

Eli Manning: Coming out of the bye week, Manning looked sharp with all things considered. Not that the 49ers are an elite pass defense or anything, but Manning’s 19-for-31 passing could’ve been better had his receivers helped him out, as they were slipping all over the field. Bottom line, Manning has the starting job heading into a dream matchup with the Bucs. They rank just 23rd in sack percentage this year, so he should have more time than usual. It took three offensive linemen and two starting wide receivers out for the Redskins in order to see the Bucs defense finally hold a quarterback to less than 18.2 fantasy points. That’s right, 8-of-9 quarterbacks have been able to post either 334 yards and/or multiple passing touchdowns. When pulling up my spreadsheet on quarterbacks, there legitimately isn’t anything the Bucs do well against quarterbacks. They rank 3rd-worst in touchdown percentage (7.23), 4th-worst in yards per attempt (8.7), a league-high 73.6 percent completion rate, and have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any other team. This could be one of Manning’s last games at MetLife Stadium and he should deliver. He’s on the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 radar.

RBs
Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers: We’re now past the halfway point of the season and Barber has still yet to eclipse 450 rushing yards despite starting every game for the Bucs. The Giants have looked terrible against the run without Damon Harrison, who they traded to the Lions a few weeks back. In the two games without him, they’ve allowed Adrian Peterson and Matt Breida to combine for 250 yards on 43 carries (5.81 yards per carry) with two touchdowns. They also allowed a receiving touchdown to each of them, but Barber has just nine receptions on the year, so it’s tough to say you should rely on anything there. The game Barber played against a similarly struggling defense (Bengals) a few weeks ago, he did tally 85 yards and a touchdown on the ground, so an RB2 performance is not out of the question, though he should at the very least offer an RB3 floor in this game. Rodgers has played 32-39 percent of the snaps over the last four weeks and saw a season-high eight targets that netted 8/102/0, though he did lose a fumble. The Giants haven’t been particularly susceptible to pass-catching running backs, as they’ve yet to allow more than five receptions or 47 yards through the air to a running back, so he’s nothing more than a RB4 in PPR formats and RB5 in standard.

Saquon Barkley: It felt like we were cheated on Monday night while trying to watch Barkley play on the slippery field in San Francisco. You could tell he couldn’t play like his typical self in those conditions and was forced to change cleats mid-game. He was still able to post another 100-yard game, though he didn’t score for the second-straight game. It’s not likely to become a hat trick in Week 11, as the Bucs have allowed 14 total touchdowns to running backs this year, which ranks as second-most in the league. Prior to slowing down Adrian Peterson last week (who was without three starting linemen), the Bucs had allowed the Bengals and Panthers running backs to combine for five rushing touchdowns against them. To nobody’s surprise, they started slipping when linebacker Kwon Alexander went to injured reserve. It’s not just on the ground, either, as they’ve allowed four running backs to amass 55 or more receiving yards against them, with over 110 yards to both Alvin Kamara and Tarik Cohen. Barkley should be back into lineups as a rock-solid RB1 who can be relied upon in cash lineups.

WRs
Mike Evans: Remember when everyone said that Evans’ production would spike with Fitzpatrick back under center? Well, not exactly. He’s seen 16 targets over the last two weeks, though they’ve netted just four catches for 67 yards. He was matched-up against James Bradberry and Josh Norman, but the guy we saw in Week 1 against Marshon Lattimore would’ve crushed those two. He’s now about to go up against Janoris Jenkins, who used to be a stud, but has been far from that this season, allowing six touchdowns on just 55 targets in coverage. He’s also intercepted two passes, so he’s flashed at times, but it’s clear that he’s nowhere near the player he was prior to last year’s ankle surgery. He’s also allowing a career-high 72.7 percent completion rate in his coverage, so the targets should amount to production for Evans in this game. The question is – which Evans shows up? The guy who crushed Lattimore in Week 1, or the one who’s struggled against Bradberry/Norman the last two weeks? It’s possible that his knee issue that has limited his practice over the last few weeks is affecting him more than they’re letting on, but his targets say something different. You should play him as a high-end WR2 who can pop-off at any point.

Chris Godwin: It seems like the Bucs have no clue what they’re doing with Godwin, as he started the year playing 50-55 percent of the snaps, then they bumped him up to 70 percent in the two weeks following the bye week, and have now dragged him down to just 49-55 percent over the last two weeks. Seriously, what gives? The odd part is that his targets didn’t suffer in Week 10 when he played just 34 snaps, as he totaled seven targets, hauling in every one of them for 103 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 6, but he’s clearly more efficient than Evans right now. He’ll see B.W. Webb in coverage more than anyone else, a six-year veteran who has allowed a 111.6 QB Rating in his coverage over the course of his career. Even against the 49ers weak receiving corps last week, he allowed 5-of-6 passing for 71 yards in his coverage. The snap counts are infuriating but Godwin cannot be kept off the field much longer. He’s risky but should be considered a high-upside WR4 this week.

DeSean Jackson: The drop in snaps last week for Godwin led to more for Jackson, who played a season-high 64 percent of the snaps. He had more targets (8) than all other wide receivers, so the increase in snaps meant something. When he comes onto the field (and Godwin is off), he’s going to see B.W. Webb in coverage, who’s going to have his hands full in this matchup. Not only has he struggled in coverage, but he doesn’t have the speed to hang with Jackson. Webb’s best 40-time he’s recorded is 4.51 seconds, and this is his sixth year in the league. We don’t know if Koetter will call the plays again for the Bucs (as he did in Week 10), but it wouldn’t be a bad thing for Jackson. He’s in the low-end WR3 conversation against the Giants, though it’s worth noting that they’ve allowed multiple top-36 receivers in just two games this year.

Odell Beckham: The net result of his Week 10 performance was nice (23.3 PPR points), but it could’ve been nicer. He dropped a ball on the first offensive play of the game, then slipped on a route in the first half that would’ve had him fall into the end zone after gaining separation from Richard Sherman. With Manning playing one of his best games of the year, Beckham’s arrow is pointing up, as he’s now scored 20-plus PPR points in four of the last five games. There’s been just one game this year he hasn’t seen double-digit targets, and, in that game, he saw nine, so the volume has consistently been great. Against the Bucs, that’s massive. There have been six wide receivers who’ve seen 10-plus targets against them, and of those wide receivers, every single one of them totaled at least 88 yards, with five of them scoring a touchdown (only Julio Jones didn’t). The only team who has allowed more 20-plus point performances to wide receivers is the Saints, as there’ve been seven wide receivers to accomplish that feat against the Bucs.

Sterling Shepard: If you’re looking for a pivot off Beckham this week, Shepard has a phenomenal matchup. The Bucs held rookie slot cornerbacks M.J. Stewart out last week with a foot injury, though his replacement Javien Elliott hasn’t been any better throughout his career. I’m not kidding, he’s allowed 26-of-26 passing for 247 yards and a touchdown in his coverage during his three-year career. So, for those who were wondering why Stewart hadn’t been benched, Elliott is why. It really doesn’t matter which of the two play, as Shepard should be one of the focal points of the passing attack this week after being somewhat of an afterthought against the 49ers, though he did score. There’s a lot of ways to beat the Bucs defense, so there’s some risk in playing any Giants skill-position player, but Shepard had seen at least seven targets in each of his previous six games before Week 10. He should be on the high-upside WR3 radar this week and a solid pivot play from Beckham in DFS (or you can play both).

TEs
O.J. Howard: Many are worried about Howard after his one-catch, 15-yard performance against the Redskins, but what’s he supposed to do with two targets? It was also a brutal matchup against D.J. Swearinger, so don’t overthink it. The Giants haven’t been a great matchup for tight ends, as they have allowed just one touchdown to them, but as a whole, they’ve been pretty average. The 44 receptions they’ve allowed is the 14th-most, with the 512 yards being the 16th-most. George Kittle was able to rack up nine catches for 83 yards on 10 targets from Nick Mullens last week, and he was the clear-cut No. 1 threat in that pass-attack, while the Bucs have a lot of different ways to go. Strong safety Landon Collins has been struggling as of late, allowing 15-of-17 passing for 147 yards and a touchdown over the last five weeks, so feel free to plug-and-play Howard as a middling TE1 this week.

Evan Engram: Prior to the season, I put together an Engram player profile and had legitimate concerns about his volume in this offense given the talent around him. He’s seen 14 targets the last two weeks, which is much better than you could’ve expected, and he’s going to need them considering he’s not going to produce unless he sees plenty of them. What do I mean? Here you go:

Every player needs targets to produce, but six-plus targets will be hard to come by in this offense. If you go back to his 2017 production, a lot of it came when Beckham and Shepard were out of the lineup and they didn’t have Barkley. Against the Bucs, it really shouldn’t matter. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, which includes a league-leading 701 yards allowed to them. After starting safety Chris Conte went to injured reserve, things didn’t magically get better. They’ve allowed six tight ends to rack up 15-plus PPR points against them, while no other team in the league has allowed more than three such performances. With his recent increase in targets, it’s promising, so combine that with the matchup and he’s a solid TE1.

Houston Texans at Washington Redskins

Total: 42.5
Line: HOU by 2.5

QBs
Deshaun Watson: After throwing for 300-plus yards for four straight games from Week 2-5, Watson has averaged just 192.0 yards per game over his last four and hasn’t topped 239 yards in any of them. It helps to know that he threw for five touchdowns in the game against the Dolphins, but a big issue is his lack of volume, as he’s thrown the ball 25 times or less in each of the last four games. The bye week should’ve been great for his health and we should see him ramp up his rushing production as the weeks go on. The Redskins have been a defense to attack through the air as of late, as they’ve allowed an average of 330.5 passing yards per game since their bye in Week 4, so it’s a large sample size. During that stretch, they’ve allowed four 300-yard passers, and there hasn’t been a single quarterback who’s thrown for less than 275 yards. They have intercepted five passes over the last three games, which collides with Watson’s current three-game no-interception streak. The Redskins have boasted a 6.9 percent sack rate this year (16th in NFL), so they should be able to get pressure on Watson, but his athleticism should be able to overcome some of that. Knowing he’s healthier and could be running for his life, Watson should be on the middling to low-end QB1 radar in this game.

Alex Smith: It was wise to downgrade Smith last week with his three starting linemen, two starting receivers, and top pass-catching running back out of the lineup last week. Keep in mind that was against the Bucs defense, while the Texans defense will be fresh coming off their bye week. They’ve been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks, as they’ve yet to allow a quarterback throw more than one touchdown since way back in Week 4. That was also the last time they allowed a 300-yard passer against them. Their pass-rush has generated 2.6 sacks per game, though they’re continually getting pressure and forcing quarterbacks to get the ball out, which has made their injury-filled secondary look better. Because of that, they’ve allowed just 6.9 yards per attempt, which ranks as the fourth-lowest number in the league. They’ve also allowed just 108 yards on the ground, so it’s unlikely Smith’s legs can save him here, either. He’s not a fantasy option until his offensive line gets back in order, especially in a matchup with the Texans.

RBs
Lamar Miller: So, is Miller who we thought he was? After back-to-back 100-yard games against the Jaguars and Dolphins, he went back to his old ways and totaled just 21 yards on 12 carries against the Broncos before the bye week, with Alfred Blue out-carrying him and out-gaining him (39 yards on 15 carries). It was a very close game, too, so they didn’t just put in Blue for garbage time. The Redskins had a hiccup against the Falcons a few weeks ago when they allowed Tevin Coleman 156 total yards and two touchdowns, but they’ve been a brutal defense to running backs for much of the year. Outside of Coleman, they’ve yet to allow a running back more than 61 yards on the ground, which includes Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Christian McCaffrey, and Ezekiel Elliott. Miller has totaled just five receptions since Week 3, so it’s difficult to expect him to make it up through the air, though that’s been the area where running backs can contribute points. Miller should be considered just a high-end RB3 this week who might be in more of a timeshare than people think. The snap counts for Miller/Blue over the last three games are 119-78.

Adrian Peterson: Now dealing with injuries all over the offensive line, Peterson has totaled just 85 yards on 28 carries (3.04 yards per carry) and no touchdowns over the last two weeks. While that’s bad, it’s even worse when you know that those games were against the Falcons and Bucs, who are both bottom-eight teams against running backs. The Texans are on the other end, as they’ve allowed just 3.54 yards per carry on the season with just three rushing touchdowns. The reason the Texans have allowed four top-12 performances this year comes down to all the points they allow through the air to running backs, as they’ve allowed eight different running backs rack up at least 21 yards through the air, including five receiving touchdowns, the second-most in the league. Despite Chris Thompson being out for much of the last month, Peterson has totaled just 32 receiving yards over his last five games. If the Redskins want to get him going, they’ll need to use him more in the passing-game this week, making him a risky low-end RB2/high-end RB3.

WRs
DeAndre Hopkins: He’s now caught a touchdown in six of the last eight games and has posted at least 14 PPR points in every game this year despite Watson’s low yardage totals over the last month. He’s the go-to in this offense and will likely be shadowed by Josh Norman this week, which shouldn’t scare you off him. Prior to Mike Evans‘ three-catch, 51-yard performance, he allowed Julio Jones 7/121/1 and Odell Beckham 8/136/0. Truth be told, Jones’ game could’ve been even bigger had Norman not tackled him to take the pass interference call on a would-be 50-yard touchdown. Norman isn’t the cornerback he used to be and even without that play, he’s allowed four touchdowns on 43 targets in coverage this year. Hopkins is a must-play WR1 every week and Norman shouldn’t scare you off him, especially when you know the Redskins have allowed an average of 330.5 passing yards over their last six games.

Demaryius Thomas: We knew it would be tough for Thomas to grasp the offense quick enough to make an impact with the Texans in his first game, but now that he’s had a few weeks to take in the playbook and work with Watson, he should be a bit more reliable. He played well in his first game with the Texans, too, catching all three of his targets for 61 yards. With the lack of options in the passing-game, Thomas will be relied upon more than most think. With Josh Norman likely to cover Hopkins, that would leave seventh-round rookie Greg Stroman on Thomas, provided Quinton Dunbar misses another week with his shin injury. Stroman has been picked-on by teams when he’s been in action, allowing 263 yards and two touchdowns on just 25 targets in coverage. While he’s no longer the No. 1 option in his offense, he can play a role in fantasy leagues and should be played as a somewhat high-floor WR3/4 option this week.

Keke Coutee: It’s no lock that Coutee will play this week, though things are trending in the right direction as he returned to the practice field on Monday. It’ll be interesting to see how they use Coutee with Will Fuller on injured reserve, as they don’t use Hopkins or Thomas in a field-stretching way, but Coutee has that ability, even if they haven’t shown it yet. The Redskins have second-year cornerback Fabien Moreau covering the slot and he’d been doing a respectable job, but he’s been slipping as of late, as he’s allowed 16-of-19 passing for 254 yards and a touchdown over the last four weeks. Still, we haven’t seen a slot-heavy receiver top 59 yards against them since back in Week 5, so it hasn’t been an area to attack. If Miller can’t get anything going on the ground, they may lean on Coutee in the short passing game like they did earlier in the year, so Moreau would be tested. It’s not a terrible matchup for Coutee at this point, but he’s also coming off a multi-week soft tissue injury, so we’ll keep him in the WR4 range for this game.

Josh Doctson: Go figure that even with Paul Richardson on injured reserve, Doctson saw his lowest target total (4) since Week 3. He’d seen at least five targets in four straight games, so he appeared on the right track, but the regression isn’t great, though Smith threw the ball just 27 times in that game. He has caught a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, so it’s possible that he’s earning more of Smith’s trust despite his lack of separation. The Texans have cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Kayvon Webster on injured reserve, and then have both Aaron Colvin and Johnathan Joseph questionable for this game with ankle injuries. It seems they’re likely to play, but the matchup hasn’t been good for wide receivers despite all the injuries. They’ve allowed just 1.55 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the fourth-fewest in the league. The area where Doctson delivers fantasy points is the end zone, and the Texans have allowed just six wide receiver touchdowns through nine games. He’s not a recommended play this week outside of a WR5 hail-mary where you’re looking for a random touchdown.

Maurice Harris/Jamison Crowder: We don’t know what the return of Crowder will do to Harris, as he’s been valuable in the big-slot role and has shown chemistry with Smith that we haven’t seen from anyone else on the team, but Crowder is essentially a slot-only receiver which creates a problem. You may think this is a typo, but Harris leads the Redskins wide receivers in yards this year. He’s likely to stay in the lineup due to his recent production but moving him outside will have a negative impact on his numbers. Crowder has been out since Week 5 and has totaled just 134 yards on the season to this point. With Aaron Colvin and Johnathan Joseph likely returning to the lineup, that would mean Kareem Jackson would go back to the slot, where he’s played very well this year. This is obviously a situation to avoid if possible, as there’s just too many variables in a matchup against a Texans defense that’s hasn’t been one to target. If you’re forced to pick one, I’d say Crowder just because the slot role should see more volume with the Texans pass-rush. Update: Crowder has been ruled out for the game, so Harris moves into WR4 territory, though he doesn’t offer a massive ceiling in a tough matchup. 

TEs
Jordan Thomas: Despite Ryan Griffin returning to the lineup against the Broncos in Week 9, Thomas was the one who found the end zone for the third time in two games. Both tight ends played a lot of snaps in that game, as did Jordan Akins, which has to do with their lack of depth at wide receiver. With Coutee expected back, Akins is the one who’ll see his snaps dip. With that being said, you really don’t want to play a tight end against the Redskins, especially one in a timeshare. They’ve taken out opposing tight ends this year, allowing a league-low 5.6 yards per target to them, including holding O.J. Howard to just one catch and 15 yards last week. They’ve also allowed just three touchdowns, so it’s not as if you can bank on those opportunities for Thomas, either. The Redskins have allowed just three top-12 performances this year, and all three of them scored a touchdown, though none topped 26 yards. He’s not on the streaming radar this week.

Jordan Reed: I guess we can say that last week was a step in the right direction for Reed and Smith, as they connected on 4-of-6 targets for 51 yards, but we mustn’t forget that it was against the Bucs who’ve been demolished by tight ends all season. But here’s the good news – the Texans aren’t much better. They’ve allowed a 79.3 percent completion rate to tight ends, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league. They’ve also allowed 9.1 yards per target to them, which is the fourth-highest mark, so this matchup should suit Reed very well. They don’t ask him to block much (66 percent of the time he’s running a route), but they’ll likely need to keep Vernon Davis/Jeremy Sprinkle in to help block a bit considering the Texans pass-rush. It’s been a maddening season for Reed, but if there’s one of the Redskins pass-catchers who you should be most confident with this week, it’s him. Consider him a low-end TE1 this week.