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Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 12 (2019)

by Raju Byfield | @FantasyContext | Featured Writer
Nov 20, 2019

Matt Ryan is set up to be a top option at QB in DFS this week.

Analyzing Vegas’ odds is a critical aspect in successful DFS lineup building. While you should not be rostering players exclusively from high total contests on a weekly basis, the over/under for a contest can be the deciding factor when choosing between two competing options that you have similarly projected and ranked. A high over/under suggests that a contest will be high scoring. More scoring generally equals more opportunities for fantasy points. In that vein, we will be taking a look at the players from two of the contests with the highest over/under totals of Week 12.

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Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Moneyline Home Moneyline
Sunday, 11/24 at Atlanta -4.5 Tampa Bay 51.5 -240 +190

 
In a contest the Atlanta Falcons have a very strong chance of matching or exceeding their implied score in, Matt Ryan looks like one of the strongest DFS options of the week. He is facing a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. He is priced as one of the elite options of the week, but due to the plus matchup, he is still worth an extended look. 

Jameis Winston is always a candidate to put up gaudy fantasy numbers, but as we have seen on multiple occasions this season, he can also hurt you with multiple interceptions. He has a plus matchup but is priced like one of the elite options of the slate this week, which makes looking elsewhere a prudent strategy. 

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have disappointed in consecutive weeks. They continue to be priced as elite options due to their sky-high weekly upside, but coming off of a Week 11 in which Cameron Brate saw 14 targets, a week that saw two of the highest-priced receivers see just 14 combined targets, there are other options more worthy of your coin at this type of price point. 

Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley both saw 25 percent target shares in Week 11. While 25 percent is a solid number, DFS owners were expecting more with Austin Hooper out of the lineup. With that being said, both Julio and Ridley were able to produce as expected against a banged-up Panthers secondary. They are both very strong plays this week against a Buccaneers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Ridley is priced like one of the potential bargains of the week. 

Brian Hill remains a volume-based, multiple lineup option, but should be ignored for those playing single lineups. Hill is facing a Buccaneers defense that has relinquished just 3.41 yards per carry this season. The Falcons have also been solid against the run and have allowed just 3.98 yards per carry to opposing running backs on the season, making inefficient timeshare backs Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber safe to ignore after the entire Buccaneers offense saw just eight carries in Week 11. 

At tight end there are no options worth single lineup consideration. Cameron Brate offers some intrigue after a stunning 14 target Week 11, but if Bruce Arians releases O.J. Howard from the doghouse he landed in after an ugly drop led to a Jameis Winston interception than this will be a situation to avoid as per usual. Jaeden Graham saw two targets in Week 11, leading the tight end group for the Falcons, but played just 52 percent of the snaps. He is a hard pass.

Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Moneyline Home Moneyline
Sunday, 11/24 Seattle -1.5 Philadelphia 48 +102 -124

 
Russell Wilson is one of the elite options on the main slate and is priced like it. He is worth a long hard look if you are able to find the bargains elsewhere that you feel comfortable with. Wilson leads the league with 23 touchdowns and should be good for two of three more against an Eagles defense that has surrendered 296.6 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game to the QB1 types they have faced this season. Carson Wentz has thrown more than just one touchdown in just one of his last six contests. Despite the high total for this contest and his low price tag, Wentz is not worth considering for single lineup entries. 

Seattle’s wide receiver corps is suddenly full of talent. Tyler Lockett leads the way as one of the top options of the week against a Philadelphia Eagles defense allowing the fourth most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Lockett was unable to finish Week 10’s overtime thriller, but head coach Pete Carroll expressed optimism that Lockett would be able to get cleared in time to play the Eagles. D.K. Metcalf should remain Wilson’s top shot play option, and should still get some screen game work even with Gordon in town. Gordon may siphon a target a piece from Lockett and Metcalf, but the majority of his targets will be the ones that used to go to players like Jaron Brown, David Moore, and Malik Turner. Lockett, Metcalf, and Gordon are all worth looks in a plus matchup.

The wide receiver corps in Philadelphia is a mess. DeSean Jackson is on injured reserve, and Alshon Jeffery, who has been a disappointment for the majority of the season, missed Week 11, and will be at less than 100 percent if he is able to suit up against the Seahawks. With Wentz struggling under center, the Eagles entire receiving corp is safe to ignore for Week 12. 

Chris Carson is always worth consideration due to the volume he continues to receive. Carson has recorded at least 89 rushing yards in six of his last seven contests. He has averaged 22.14 carries, and 99.28 rushing yards per game over that timeframe. The Eagles have been rock solid against the run this season, allowing just 3.36 yards per carry. Their surprising effectiveness makes Carson more of a volume play than a high upside option to chase. Only Ezekiel Elliott has solved the Eagles run defense this season. 

The Seahawks have held opposing running backs to 4.04 yards per carry on the season. Miles Sanders played 85 percent of the snaps in Week 12 with Jordan Howard sidelined, but will go back to his change of pace, and receiving back role if Howard can get cleared. Sanders is in a position to have a solid day against a Seahawks defense allowing 5.5 receptions per game to opposing running backs. Howard should see volume if he suits up, but will be a largely touchdown dependent play against a stingy run defense. 

The tight end position provides us with two exciting options in Jacob Hollister and Zach Ertz. They are the number two and number one fantasy tight ends in fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. Both are plug and play options in this high total contest. Ertz is back to being priced like one of the elites at his position. Hollister is priced like a potential bargain at DraftKings.

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.

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