DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 13 (2020 Fantasy Football)
This week’s DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice features a stud running back who’s underpriced relative to his top-flight running back peers. He’s joined by a surging speedy wideout who’s been in good form in a bad offense. A massive five-man game stack rounds out the picks with a pair of pivot options gamers who are multi entering GPPs can turn to in order to mix their stack up a bit.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC): $7,100 vs. Patriots
In his return from Injured Reserve, Ekeler quickly shook off the rust and played like one of the best running backs in the NFL. He toted the rock 14 times for 44 rushing yards, but, per usual, it was his receiving work that was headline-grabbing. He led the Chargers in targets with 16, and he parlayed his hefty target load into team-leading totals of 11 receptions and 85 receiving yards. Ekeler’s played three full games with Justin Herbert starting at quarterback, and this is his second game with 11 receptions and more than 80 receiving yards. In the outlier contest, all he did was total 148 yards from scrimmage with four receptions. Suffice to say, Ekeler’s salary should be much closer to Dalvin Cook’s $9,500 and Derrick Henry’s $9,200 at the top of the heap for running backs.
Besides having a sky-high ceiling — which is most important in GPPs — his floor is quite high, too, as a game-script proof back. The Chargers are hosting the Patriots and are one-point underdogs with an implied total of 23.25 points, according to the consensus line at BettingPros. As for the matchup against the Patriots, New England ranks in the middle of the pack in DraftKings points yielded to running backs. However, they’ve had a few meltdowns this year defending the run, coughing up 154 rushing yards to the Seahawks in Week 2, 135 to the Broncos in Week 6, 197 to the 49ers in Week 7, 190 to the Bills in Week 8, and 138 to the Cardinals last week, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Favorite Value Play
Breshad Perriman (WR – NYJ): $3,900 vs. Raiders
After consecutive strong showings with Joe Flacco at quarterback, Perriman maintained his momentum with the return of Sam Darnold last week. In Week 12, he finished in a tie for the team lead in targets (eight) and receptions (four) while leading the way in receiving yards (79). Further, he had a big showing in the air yards department, accounting for 42.14% of the team’s air yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The veteran burner is a field-stretching wideout as evidenced by his average depth of target of 14.8 yards downfield that’s tied for the fifth-deepest mark among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 35 times in 2020, according to Sports Info Solutions. A matchup with the Raiders is tailor-made for Perriman’s vertical usage. The Raiders sit in the middle of the pack in pressure percentage but have the second-lowest sack total this year with just a dozen of them. Darnold should be able to be kept clean and upright while Perriman gets deep. I’ll be overweight on him GPPs.
- Philip Rivers (QB – IND): $5,900 at Texans
- Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): $5,700 at Texans
- Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND): $4,900 at Texans
- Pivot: T.Y. Hilton (WR – IND): $4,300 at Texans
- Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU): $5,600 vs. Colts
- Pivot: Keke Coutee (WR – HOU): $3,500 vs. Colts
- Jordan Akins (TE – HOU): $2,900 vs. Colts
With a game total of 50.5 points and the Colts favored by 3.5 points, there’s shootout potential. The most prominent pieces and a majority of the stack is comprised of the favored Colts. Veteran Rivers is the trigger man and playing well from a fantasy perspective after scuffling out of the chute in his first year with the Colts. Rivers has four multi-touchdown efforts in his last six games, three of those featuring 285-plus passing yards, and another contest with 300-plus passing yards and a single touchdown toss. With the Texans tied for the 11th-most DraftKings points allowed per game to quarterbacks, per Pro-Football-Reference, Rivers has a favorable matchup to continue rolling.
Pittman has emerged as his top option in the passing attack over the last few weeks. The rookie wideout was second on the team in targets last week with nine, and he’s led the team in targets in two of his last four games played. He has per-game averages of 6.75 targets, 4.0 receptions, and 62.75 receiving yards during the last four games. He’s also bested 100 receiving yards in one game — adding a 21-yard run in that contest — and scored a touchdown in one contest. Hilton is a usable pivot coming off his best game of the year with a 4-81-1 line in Week 12.
Taylor might seem like an odd stacking inclusion with Rivers since Nyheim Hines is the team’s top pass-catching back, but Taylor’s caught multiple passes in his last six games played (he was on the reserve/COVID-19 list last week) and in eight of 10 games this season. Additionally, his matchup on the ground is dreamy.
The Texans have yielded the second-most DraftKings points per game to running backs and been smashed to the tune of 5.25 yards per carry by them, according to Pro-Football-Reference. It should come as no surprise with such a gaudy yards per carry coughed up to backs, the Texans are tied for the sixth-highest average explosive run rate at 13%, per Sharp Football Stats. As long as the game script stays neutral or favorable, Taylor should eat.
Running it back the other way, Cooks’ already team-high target share (22.2%) should surge in the wake of Will Fuller’s suspension. Volume’s king and a tough matchup isn’t enough to dissuade me from using Cooks when he projects to be force-fed the ball.
Fuller’s absence, coupled with the release of Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb’s presence on Injured Reserve, leaves the cupboard mostly bare at receiver. Pivot Coutee is one of the last standing options at receiver, but pass-catching tight end Akins also, theoretically, should see an uptick in work.
Akins has been targeted only 28 times this year in eight games, but he’s demonstrated intriguing efficiency. Among qualified players, his 9.8 yards per target is tied for the 17th-best mark. I don’t expect him to maintain that efficiency with more work, but an increase in targets would more than offset a slip in efficiency. Also of note, Travis Kelce isn’t on the main slate due to playing in the Sunday Night Football game, removing the only stud tight end from the pool and enhancing the appeal of spinning down to a cheap option like Akins at just $2,900.
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