Kyle Yates’ Week 1 Fantasy Projections (2021 Fantasy Football)

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Denver Broncos vs New York Giants

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Broncos -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 42 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Broncos 22.5, Giants 19.5

Denver Broncos

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New York Giants

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Quarterback

Denver: Teddy Bridgewater’s now the starting QB for a team that has a loaded receiving corps, but it might not necessarily translate to top-tier fantasy production for him specifically. Bridgewater’s a fine QB2 in Superflex formats due to his supporting cast, but he shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than that.

New York: Jones hasn’t exactly progressed the way that the Giants were hoping for when they drafted him early in the first round in 2018 and he has to take a massive step forward this season to even be considered for the starting job next year. Unfortunately, Jones is dealing with an injury-riddled receiving corps already and he has a ridiculously tough matchup right out of the gates. The Broncos’ defense is healthy and stacked to start the year and Jones is most likely going to throw an interception or two in this one. He can be viewed as a QB3.

Running Backs

Denver: The coaching staff just gave another huge vote of confidence to Javonte Williams this season after saying that they trust him in any situation, which is a shining endorsement for a rookie RB. Typically, coaches are hesitant to put rookie RBs on the field on key third downs because of their pass-blocking inconsistencies, but Williams excels in that area of his game. While I do believe that this is going to be a near-even split between Gordon and Williams, Williams has the most upside out of the two backs. With that being said, the New York Giants boast a stout run game and they were top-10 in the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed per game last season. Unless Williams sees a significant target share as a receiver out of the backfield, he might struggle to see enough opportunity to crack the top-24. He can be viewed as a mid-range RB3. Melvin Gordon should remain heavily involved to start the season, but we could see his workload fade away if Williams does indeed perform as the better option routinely as the year progresses. Against the Giants this week, Gordon can be viewed as a mid-range RB3 as well. He doesn’t present ridiculous upside, but he can absolutely be started if you’re in a pinch already.

New York: Barkley appears to be trending towards playing here in week one, but we need to be very cautious with our expectations. This will be one of his first experiences receiving contact since coming back from his injury and the Giants might manage his workload as much as they possibly can. Against a defense that promises to be in the backfield a lot this week with the state of the Giants’ offensive line, Barkley’s going to have to be his former self in order to be productive. Based on where you drafted Barkley, you’re going to have to start him here in week one, but we shouldn’t be expecting top-5 production from him. Barkley lands as a high-end RB2 in my weekly rankings.

Wide Receivers

Denver: Courtland Sutton appears to be on track to play in this matchup based on his appearance in the final pre-season game, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we should be racing to start him this week. While the matchup is fine for Sutton, there’s a lot of unknowns with this Denver receiving corps and how it will play out when everyone is healthy on the field paired with Bridgewater. While Sutton has the talent to be a top-24 wideout, there are too many unknowns for me to rank Sutton anywhere near that range this week. Sutton can be viewed as a boom-or-bust low-end WR3. Jerry Jeudy has all the talent in the world and it appears that he’s worked non-stop this off-season to shore up the drops issues he had in his rookie year. Bridgewater seems to be a better fit for Jeudy and his skillset operating in the short-to-intermediate levels of the field and he should be looking his way early and often this week. Jeudy should see primary coverage from Darnay Holmes this week, who received a measly 48.5 grade from PFF in 2020. Jeudy belongs in your starting lineup as a mid-range WR3.

New York: In a surprising turn of events, Kenny Golladay appears set to play in this matchup. While we don’t know whether or not he’ll be operating anywhere near 100%, he’s most likely in starting consideration for your lineup simply based on where you drafted him. However, if I have him on my roster, I’m doing everything I can to try and find a way to bench Golladay. This is a brutal matchup for opposing WRs and the Giants legitimately might not be able to find the end zone once this entire game. He can be viewed as a low-end FLEX option. Additionally, Kadarius Toney and Darius Slayton are both dealing with their own respective injuries, but both seem to be trending towards playing. This leaves Sterling Shepard as the only remaining truly healthy WR, which would normally put him in the low-end WR3 conversation. However, the Broncos secondary is among the best in the league with Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby, Patrick Surtain, and Bryce Callahan. There’s no one else in this offense that’s going to be able to take attention away from Shepard, which makes him a low-end FLEX play. Even if Slayton and Toney suit up, that doesn’t change my outlook for Shepard.

Tight Ends

Denver: Noah Fant is reportedly dealing with a leg injury, but he appears to be on track to play in the season opener. Based on where you drafted Fant, you’re going to be starting him this week because of the premium pick you spent on him. However, the Giants were one of the better teams in the NFL last year in stopping opposing TEs with an average of 7.1 points per game. With the other receiving weapons the Broncos have, it’s hard to see how Fant cracks the top-10 in this one.

New York: Evan Engram appears to be a long-shot to play this week at the time of writing and Kyle Rudolph is still recovering from his foot injury. Even if Rudolph does play, he’s merely just a low-end streaming option in this one. Update: Engram has been ruled out for this matchup.

FantasyProjection Buster: Barkley is absolutely the answer here. There’s the possibility that he doesn’t see the number of snaps that I’m predicting, which would dramatically eat into his projected output.

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Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Packers -4
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Packers 27.25, Saints 22.75

Green Bay Packers

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New Orleans Saints

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Quarterback

Green Bay: After the whole suspenseful situation this off-season about whether or not Aaron Rodgers would be back in a Packers uniform for 2021, he’s in town and ready to roll for week one against the Saints. While the Saints were the 8th toughest matchup for opposing fantasy QBs last season, their entire defense has taken a hit due to their salary cap maneuvering. Rodgers should have no issue returning top-10 value this week and he lands as a mid-range QB1 in my initial week one rankings.

New Orleans: It’s Jameis time again, everyone! While this is going to be a ton of fun to watch and see what version of Winston we get on the football field, we can’t be confident rolling him into our starting lineups just yet. This receiving corps has some talented players that have stepped up, but it’s still not anything near what he had in Tampa Bay. Winston should do enough to be worth starting in 2QB or Superflex formats, but we shouldn’t be looking his way just yet in 1QB leagues.

Running Backs

Green Bay: With Jamaal Williams’ departure in free agency, Aaron Jones could be looking at a sizable increase in targets this year out of the backfield. While it’s a bit of an unknown as to how much of a role Dillon will play around the goal-line, Jones still should be an extremely safe option week in and week out that’s attached to a dynamic scoring offense. The Saints were the second toughest matchup for opposing RBs last season, but they lost some key players on their defensive line that attributed to that ranking. Jones should be viewed as a top-8 option this week. AJ Dillon obviously holds ridiculous upside if Jones were to miss time with an injury, but he could also end up being a valuable FLEX play week in and week out if he sees an uptick in work in this offense. It’s still a mystery as to how much work he’ll exactly see, so it’s not worth starting him here in week one. If he gets 10-12 touches in this matchup though, he could very well be on the radar for starting lineups in week two.

New Orleans: Kamara’s a locked-and-loaded top-5 option every week. He should absolutely shred this Packers’ run defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league last year in Rush DVOA and there’s not much more to discuss. Tony Jones Jr. now has the RB2 job locked up in New Orleans after the release of Latavius Murray and he’s absolutely going to be fantasy relevant in 2021. The Saints have consistently utilized two-RBs in this system and made them both fantasy relevant. Murray had his moments throughout his tenure with the team and Mark Ingram certainly was able to thrive alongside Kamara a couple of years ago. We don’t exactly know what we’re going to get out of Jones Jr., despite how good he looked in the preseason, so he’s not someone that we should consider starting in week one unless we’re absolutely desperate already. However, if you followed my advice and drafted him late before the Murray news broke or beat the rest of your league mates to the waiver wire for him, you should be watching this game closely. If Jones receives a significant workload in this one, he could potentially be ranked as a top-30 option moving forward.

Wide Receivers

Green Bay: What is there to be said about Adams that hasn’t been said already? Adams is coming off of the highest fantasy points per game average since Jerry Rice’s 1987 season (22.69 ppg in 12 games) and it appears to be a record that he could easily beat against this season. While 21.5 fantasy points per game is a ridiculous mark, Rodgers and Adams have chemistry that simply cannot be guarded or defended. He’s the WR1 in my week one rankings for a reason. Otherwise, there might not be a Packers wideout that we should feel comfortable starting this week. It’s still a bit of a mystery as to who is going to be receiving the most playing time out of Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Randall Cobb, and Amari Rodgers. It’s probably best to sit back and observe this week to see how the snap counts break down and then evaluate from there.

New Orleans: With Michael Thomas sidelined, Marquez Callaway has the chance to step into a major role in this offense. If the second pre-season game is any indication, Callaway could be a solid contributor for fantasy lineups in 2021 and he deserves to be in the FLEX conversation for week one. With that being said, the Packers’ secondary isn’t exactly a piece-of-cake matchup. Jaire Alexander should cover Callaway in this game – assuming that Alexander does indeed play – and that’s a daunting matchup for fantasy purposes. Because of the uncertainty surrounding him – plus the potential coverage he’ll face – Callaway should be viewed as a high-end FLEX option. Update: Tre’Quan Smith has landed on the short-term IR in NO.

Tight Ends

Green Bay: Tonyan was a true league winner last season with his emergence off of the waiver wire. He posted an absurd 88% catch rate and reeled in 11 receiving touchdowns, which far exceeded expectations. With Rodgers back this season, there’s no reason why Tonyan shouldn’t continue to be incredibly productive. He might not see the amount of volume as other TEs higher than him on the consensus rankings, but his scoring upside is among the best. He can be viewed as a low-end TE1 this week.

New Orleans: None of the Saints TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: Tonyan’s always a player that I consider in this range because of his efficiency. If he can’t keep up the ridiculous touchdown rate, he could fail to reach my expectations.

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Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Rams -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bears 18.25, Rams 25.75

Chicago Bears

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Los Angeles Rams

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Quarterback

Chicago: It looks like we’re going to see Matt Nagy follow through on his word and actually start Andy Dalton in week one. While Justin Fields has looked like the better QB throughout the pre-season, it’s hard to blame Nagy when you think about what this matchup could look like for Dalton. The Bears’ offensive line is already being held together by duct tape and they get to take on Aaron Donald right out of the gates. Dalton’s going to be under pressure all game and it’s probably better to let the stop-gap QB take that beating than the future of the franchise. Dalton’s in no way on the streaming radar in week one.

Los Angeles: Matthew Stafford’s now in LA and we’ll get to see what this offense can do with a superstar QB behind center. While the Bears’ defense took a step backward last year, they’re still a solid group that can get after the QB. However, they also lost Kyle Fuller in a cap casualty move and their secondary is going to be rolling out Kindle Vildor as the CB2 behind Jaylon Johnson. Stafford’s going to be able to throw all over the Bears with the receiving weapons he has and he’s actually a very solid start here in week one, despite what the perception of the matchup might be. He can be viewed as a low-end QB1.

Running Backs

Chicago: Montgomery was fantastic to end the year in 2020 and he helped deliver fantasy championships to people! With Tarik Cohen out of the lineup, Montgomery was able to soak up targets and also take advantage of some easy run defenses to close out 2020. While Cohen is still out of the lineup for week one of 2021, Montgomery does not face an easy run defense here. The Rams allowed the 6th fewest rushing touchdowns per game last year and were the 3rd toughest matchup for opposing fantasy RBs. Montgomery should have a safe floor and he’ll see plenty of touches in this one, but the upside for him to finish as a top-10 option simply isn’t there due to the matchup. He can be viewed as a mid-range RB2.

Los Angeles: Many people are scared off of Darrell Henderson after the addition of Sony Michel, but Henderson’s clearly the lead RB in a potential top-5 scoring offense. It doesn’t need to be that difficult sometimes and he should have a solid game here against the Bears. While the run defense is the strength of the Bears’ defense, Eddie Goldman – the Bears’ nose tackle – is reportedly dealing with an injury that could keep him out of this matchup. That’s a good sign for Henderson and he should see enough volume – plus scoring opportunities – to return top-20 value this week. He can be viewed as a low-end RB2.

Wide Receivers

Chicago: After playing with guys like Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky for his entire career, Robinson finally has the chance to put up absurd numbers when Fields takes over. He’s still made it work and has been a fantastic fantasy asset for many years now, but this has the chance to be special eventually. For right now, especially this week, it’s worth tempering our expectations due to the matchup. Robinson should draw coverage from Jalen Ramsey, which is a difficult assignment for any receiver. With Dalton projected to be under pressure continuously throughout this game, we might not see dominant numbers from ARob in week one. He’s still a must-start option based on where you drafted him, but it’s probably best to lower him down your rankings a couple of spots. Darnell Mooney absolutely showed out last year after being a 5th-round pick out of Tulane, but he was constantly let down by his poor QB play. While Dalton is an upgrade over Trubisky and Nick Foles, it’s probably not going to be pretty here in this matchup. The Rams were the toughest matchup for opposing fantasy wideouts last season and only allowed an average of 16.5 fantasy points per game! While Brandon Staley is no longer the defensive coordinator in LA, it’s still going to be a top-tier unit. Mooney’s a FLEX play at best here in week one.

Los Angeles: Since joining the Rams in 2017, Robert Woods is 9th in total targets, 8th in receptions, and 9th in total receiving yards. He’s done all this with Goff as his QB and he’s now gotten a massive upgrade with Stafford in town. The Bears are going to attempt to ask Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor to slow down the receiving duo of Woods and Cooper Kupp and it’s probably not going to end all that well for Chicago. Both Woods and Kupp land as top-12 options in my week one rankings.

Tight Ends

Chicago: Can Cole Kmet be good for fantasy football? Yes. Will he be with Jimmy Graham still on this roster? That remains to be seen. Graham’s getting paid a lot of money this year, so we know he’s not just going to sit on the bench and do nothing. He will be involved, especially around the end zone, which puts a damper on Kmet’s fantasy ceiling. Based on where you drafted Kmet, you’re not starting him in your traditional leagues, but he’s worth looking at as a streaming option in 14-team or larger leagues.

Los Angeles: Do you remember the stretch of dominance Higbee had at the end of 2019? We could be heading towards that same level of production here in 2021 without Gerald Everett on this depth chart. The Rams are going to be in the red zone a lot this year and Higbee’s size is going to be a massive advantage in this tight area of the field. The Bears have a solid LB corps, but they were extremely susceptible to opposing TEs last year as they allowed the 5th most fantasy points to the position. Higbee should be viewed as a mid-range TE1 this year.

FantasyProjection Buster: The entire Bears offense could greatly struggle in this game, which would hinder all projections.

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Baltimore Ravens vs Las Vegas Raiders

Date/Time: Monday September 13, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Ravens -4.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Ravens 27.75, Raiders 23.25

Baltimore Ravens

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Las Vegas Raiders

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Quarterback

Baltimore: The Ravens made significant strides this off-season to surround Lamar Jackson with receiving weapons this off-season, but unfortunately the majority of them either have or will miss significant time this year. There’s been very little continuity built with this receiving corps, but that doesn’t quite make a difference for this matchup against the Raiders. Las Vegas was the 5th worst team in Defensive DVOA last year and they surrendered an average of 20.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Even if Jackson has half of the receiving corps around him that he usually has, he’ll still be a top-tier fantasy option this week because of the matchup. Jackson has overall QB1 upside this week against the Raiders.

Las Vegas: Is Derek Carr an underrated QB and can he be very effective for fantasy football? Absolutely. However, it might be several weeks before we’re talking about Carr as even a streaming option this year. Las Vegas has a brutal start to the schedule and they go up against some top-tier defenses in that time span. The Ravens allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt last season with only 5.9 on average per game. The Raiders receivers could take a massive step forward this year, but it’s going to be hard to trust Carr when he has a tough start to the year like he does here. He can be viewed as a low-end QB2.

Running Backs

Baltimore: With Gus Edwards now done for the year after suffering a season-ending Torn ACL in practice, Ty’Son Williams continues to climb up the rankings. While it is a complete leap of faith to play someone who we have barely seen in pre-season action, let alone an actual NFL game, Williams is absolutely in the low-end RB2 conversation this week because of the matchup. The Raiders bleed fantasy points to opposing RBs and Williams is going to receive a heavy workload in this game, as he’s the only RB that currently knows the playbook. You might not have to start him based on where you drafted him or when you scooped him up off waivers, but he’s a solid play this week. It’s just a complete leap of faith. Latavius Murray has been signed to this active roster and he should play a role behind Williams as early as Monday night. With that being said, this backfield could be a complete mess behind Williams. With Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman also lurking in this situation, plus Trenton Cannon already being on the roster, this could end up being a gross situation to sift through for fantasy managers. Murray is worth picking up and stashing at the bottom of your bench in case you have room, but I’m not going crazy with my expectations for him just yet.

Las Vegas: After seeing his entire offensive line dismantled, Josh Jacobs watched the Raiders front office bring in another RB to this backfield on a pricy deal via free agency. With Drake in this backfield now, all hope for Jacobs’ increased involvement as a receiver came crashing down. While Jacobs should remain heavily involved as a runner, the path for upside is now capped with the state of the offense around him. Additionally, the schedule to start the year for Jacobs is absolutely brutal. The Ravens allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns per game last year on average with only. 7 and they were top-6 in rushing yards allowed per game. This is where Jacobs will need to make his opportunity count and it’s going to be tough sledding for him out there. Jacobs is a low-end RB2 at best this week. Kenyan Drake was brought into this offense this off-season to be the pass-catching complement to Jacobs and he should see plenty of work in this matchup if the Raiders are going to be playing from behind as expected. However, that doesn’t mean that he’s going to be ultra-efficient with his opportunity. Drake only averaged 5.5 YPR in 2020 and wasn’t able to create much on his own. He can be viewed as a low-end RB3 in Full PPR formats.

Wide Receivers

Baltimore: Marquise Brown is a fine dart throw as a boom-or-bust FLEX option this week due to the matchup, but otherwise no Ravens WRs should be considered for your starting lineup. Based on their pre-draft ADP, you might not even need to start any of them here. I’d recommend looking elsewhere if you can.

Las Vegas:  While there’s some optimism surrounding Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs going into this year, we’re going to need to see it play out on the field before we feel confident starting them. The Ravens were the sixth toughest matchup for opposing WRs last season and their secondary seems to be as powerful this year as it was in 2020. Ruggs and Edwards can only be played as low-end FLEX options in week one.

Tight Ends

Baltimore: Mark Andrews is fresh off a contract extension and he should see all the targets he can handle this week with so many of the Ravens WRs battling injuries. Andrews received a 22% target share in my projection model and there’s a very solid chance that he could finish with even more than that at the end of this game. The Raiders are going to struggle to slow down Andrews all game long and we know the force that he can be in the red zone. Fire up Andrews as a top-5 option this week.

Las Vegas: What is there to say about Darren Waller that hasn’t already been said? He’s a top-tier fantasy TE that should continue to see an absurd target share in this offense. You drafted him within the first three or four rounds of your fantasy football draft, so you get to start him and just sit back and see how many points he can put up for your lineup.

FantasyProjection Buster: Jacobs wasn’t exactly the most efficient RB last year and he has a brutal matchup against Baltimore. The Ravens could go up big early and Jacobs could be relegated to the bench for Drake as the Raiders play from behind.

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Kyle Yates is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @KyleYNFL.