The Game Plan: Week 4 Edition (2021 Fantasy Football)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Packers -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Packers 26, Steelers 19.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

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Green Bay Packers

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Quarterback

Pittsburgh: At this point, what have we seen from Big Ben that makes us feel confident putting him in our starting lineups? He’s averaging just 6.2 YPA, he has a 1:1 TD/INT ratio, and he’s averaging just 267 passing yards per game. Against the Packers’ defense, Big Ben should be viewed as nothing more than a low-end QB2.

Green Bay: After falling on his face in week one, Aaron Rodgers has rebounded nicely and is now playing at a very high level over the course of the past two games. He completed nearly 70% of his passes in week three against the 49ers and averaged 7.9 YPA to go with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Rodgers now gets to take on a defense that’s allowing an average of two passing touchdowns and 266.3 passing yards per game. He should easily be able to hit those marks in week four and he’s worth firing up as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2.

Running Backs

Pittsburgh: Do you remember how crazy it was when Darren Waller – a Tight End – got 19 targets in week one? Well, Najee Harris wanted in on the action as he saw the exact same number of targets in week three against the Bengals. With Big Ben looking like he’s essentially done at this point of his career, he looked to dump the ball down to Harris early and often last week and it translated to the second-highest target total in an NFL game for an RB since targets started being recorded in 1992. While Harris has been very inefficient on the ground, it’s not entirely his fault. According to PFF, Harris has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 70% of his carries. He has 123 rushing yards on the season, but 111 of those yards have come after contact. This Steelers offense is downright dysfunctional currently and the offensive line is largely to blame. However, if Harris continues to be peppered with targets the way he has been to start the year, it won’t matter much for fantasy football. He can be viewed as a low-end RB1 again this week.

Green Bay: Ever since the massive disappointment in week one, Aaron Jones has gone on to see 36 carries for 149 yards, and two touchdowns on the ground. He’s also added eight receptions for 62 yards and five receiving touchdowns. He’s been unstoppable and a true force for fantasy lineups. He has a tough matchup this week in front of him against the Steelers defense that is only allowing 9.9 fantasy points per game so far this season, but there’s no reason we should be concerned about Jones and his fantasy outlook. He can be started as a mid-range RB1 in week four.

Wide Receivers

Pittsburgh: At the time of writing, it appears as though Diontae Johnson may miss this next game as well. However, we’ll continue to monitor the situation and update notes as soon as we receive more information. If Johnson sits again, Chase Claypool should be in line for a hefty target share yet again. With Juju also banged up and questionable, Claypool could be walking into a massive workload in week four. He absolutely has the talent to capitalize on the opportunity and there’s a very good chance that he brings a very high floor, but with the current state of the offense, it’s hard to see the upside. If Johnson and Juju both sit, Claypool can be viewed as a low-end WR2 based on pure volume. However, it’ll be worth adjusting expectations once we get more news.

Green Bay: Davante Adams took a scary hit at the end of week three, but it appears that he’s going to be all set for this matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s dominated the past two weeks and it’s evidenced by his massive 58.1% target share in week three! He was able to connect with Rodgers and find the end zone last week, which should only continue as this offense gets more and more into rhythm. The scare of week one is past us and Adams belongs back in our starting lineups as a top-3 option at the WR position. Marquez Valdes-Scantling got involved in the action last week and was able to find the end zone, but he still only had a 12.9% target share. With Adams dominating the targets, it’s hard to trust any other receiving option in this offense as anything more than a dart throw. MVS can be viewed as a boom-or-bust FLEX option in week four.

Tight Ends

Pittsburgh: Pat Freiermuth was able to come through with the shovel-pass touchdown in week three, but the fact that Eric Ebron is still running plenty of Receiving Routes in this offense makes trusting Freiermuth for fantasy difficult. Big Ben trusts Freiermuth and it’s starting to translate to fantasy production, but we can’t view him as a trustworthy start just yet until we see Ebron phased out of the offense. He can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end TE2 for week four.

Green Bay: Robert Tonyan was barely involved in the offense last week as the majority of the targets were funneled to Davante Adams. Whether or not this was due to Rodgers liking the other matchups on the field or not remains to be seen, but it is concerning for Tonyan and his fantasy outlook moving forward. Through three weeks, Tonyan has just six receptions for 66 yards and one score. He’s now moving into the mid-range TE2 territory that is simply a touchdown-or-bust option.

FantasyProjection Buster: Robert Tonyan is a completely touchdown-or-bust option.

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Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Broncos -1
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Broncos 22.75, Ravens 21.75

Baltimore Ravens

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Denver Broncos

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Quarterback

Baltimore: Lamar Jackson certainly struggled as a passer last week against Detroit. While the numbers could have been much better if his receivers had been able to reel in a couple of key passes deep downfield, the numbers weren’t great. However, he still saved his fantasy day by picking up nearly 60 yards on the ground to provide fantasy managers with a high floor. Now, Jackson has a tough task in front of him as he goes up against the Denver Broncos defense that is the toughest matchup for opposing QBs so far this season and is only allowing 11.6 fantasy points per game. However, we know that he can still be a safe fantasy asset with his rushing ability. He can be viewed as a mid-range QB1 this week against Denver.

Denver: Teddy Bridgewater has now led the Broncos to a 3-0 start to the year and he’s had his moments of being a relevant streaming option. However, this is not one of the matchups that we should be looking at Bridgewater in our 1QB formats. The Ravens know how to get home and create pressure and they still have a very solid secondary. Bridgewater can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end QB2 in week four.

Running Backs

Baltimore: After unquestionably being the Ravens’ best RB through the first two weeks, Ty’Son Williams looked like he was in a prime spot for fantasy purposes in week three against the Detroit Lions run defense. Unfortunately, someone forgot to tell the Ravens coaching staff that relying on Williams is one of their best chances to win football games and Williams only got five total carries on the day to Latavius Murray‘s seven. Moving forward, it’s going to be very difficult to trust Williams in starting lineups with this type of uncertainty. The coaching staff should get back to featuring Williams this week because they barely escaped with a win last week, but that’s not a guarantee. In a tougher matchup, Williams is a difficult player to confidently start this week. He can be viewed as a high-end RB3 this week.

Denver: If one of these Denver Broncos RBs were by themselves in this backfield, they’d absolutely be in the top-15 conversation every single week. However, they are firmly in a near 50-50 split and it’s a mystery each week as to which one is going to lead the team in carries. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams have both had their moments of shining so far this season for fantasy, but it’s difficult to predict which one exactly is going to come through for fantasy purposes. Against the defense that’s allowing just 79 rushing yards per game on average so far this season, both Gordon and Williams can be viewed as high-end RB3 options.

Wide Receivers

Baltimore: It was a rough outing last week for Marquise Brown. Even though the final stat line looks okay with 3-53-0, it doesn’t tell the bigger story. Brown could have had a massive day receiving and could have helped the Ravens to an easy victory over the Lions, but he had three key drops last week that would have been massive gains and/or scores. Brown has struggled with drops throughout his NFL career and they showed up in a big way on Sunday. In a matchup against the Broncos secondary, Brown’s going to have a tough time getting free for those big gains and he’s a risky play in this one. He can be viewed as a high-end FLEX option where you can live with the potential range of outcomes. Rashod Bateman has the potential to make his NFL debut this week against the Denver Broncos. While he has a very bright future in this league ahead of him, it’s not worth the risk of starting him this week in a tougher matchup.

Denver: All the stars aligned for Courtland Sutton to have a massive performance in week three, but he simply wasn’t needed in a game where the Broncos could rely on their run game. Sutton still saw a substantial 20.8% target share, but it only translated to five receptions for 37 yards. He’ll be needed more this week against Baltimore, but it is a bit tougher of a matchup. Sutton can be viewed as a high-end WR3. Tim Patrick consistently gets undervalued by the fantasy football community. Despite the fact that he’s the WR24 over the course of the past two weeks, Patrick is still only 32% rostered in Yahoo leagues. Patrick saw the exact same target share as Sutton in week three and yet finished with 98 receiving yards to his 37. With KJ Hamler now out for the year as well, Patrick should continue to soak up targets and get the job done for fantasy football. Even in a tougher matchup against the Ravens’ secondary, Patrick is worth viewing as a high-end WR3. Pick him up off of your waiver wire if you haven’t done so already and start him confidently this week.

Tight Ends

Baltimore: Mark Andrews has not brought the amount of upside this year that fantasy managers were expecting, but he’s still getting the job done. He’s currently averaging 4.3 receptions, 62 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns through three games and we know that the touchdowns will come eventually. The Broncos have shut down opposing TEs so far this season, but they also haven’t played anyone of Andrews’ caliber just yet. Start Andrews with confidence as a mid-range TE1.

Denver: Noah Fant wasn’t needed much in a blowout win last week over the Jets and his fantasy stock took a hit because of it. Fant ended the game with just two receptions for 15 yards, but he should be needed more in this matchup against the Ravens. With Hamler and Jeudy now out, the targets are available for Fant to be a steady contributor at TE for fantasy lineups. He should get back on track in this matchup and he can be viewed as a low-end TE1.

FantasyProjection Buster: Marquise Brown belongs in this category every single time he’s suiting up.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -7
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 49 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Buccaneers 28, Patriots 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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New England Patriots

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Quarterback

Tampa Bay: 68 passing yards. That’s how many Tom Brady needs to be able to break the all-time passing yards record in Foxborough. Coming off of a humiliating loss to the Los Angeles Rams, Brady was already going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Add in the fact that he’s facing off against the team that didn’t want him anymore when he knew he still had more to give? Brady might throw for 10 touchdowns in this game and I’m only kind of kidding. Even though Bill Belichick knows Tom and his tendencies better than any other defensive coach in the league, Brady’s receiving weapons are going to be too much for the Patriots to handle. Start him with confidence this week as a mid-range QB1.

New England: It hasn’t been a pretty start to Mac Jones‘ NFL career. Jones has struggled with accuracy, his lack of arm strength has shown up on multiple occasions, and he’s looked jittery in the pocket when he’s faced pressure. All of these concerns were on his Alabama tape and they’re showing up in the NFL in a big way without top-tier receiving weapons that are able to help take the pressure off of him. Jones is averaging just 6.1 YPA through three weeks and he has only two touchdowns on the season to three interceptions. On top of all this, he now gets to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense in Tom Brady‘s return to New England. There are unlikely to be any matchups this season in which we can feel comfortable starting Jones for fantasy, regardless of the league format.

Running Backs

Tampa Bay: Leonard Fournette was the Bucs RB to lead the team in carries over the first two weeks, but he only saw four carries to Ronald Jones‘ five in week three. Normally, this would mean simply stay away from the Bucs backfield altogether, but Giovani Bernard is most likely going to miss this game. This means that the receiving work out of the backfield will most likely fall to Fournette, but that workload can still be hit-or-miss. Fournette is yet again a volatile RB3 play.

New England: The Patriots got buried early on last week and had to turn to their passing game, which left Damien Harris on the sidelines. Harris only saw six total carries in week three and then was replaced by James White and eventually Brandon Bolden. The Patriots are going to attempt to get their ground game working in week four to keep Brady off the field as much as they can, but they’re playing the wrong defense for that. The Bucs are allowing just 63.7 rushing yards per game so far this season, which is going to make life difficult on Harris even if he does end up getting more carries than he did last week. If you can afford to, I recommend sitting Harris this week in favor of someone with more upside. Otherwise, Harris can be viewed as a high-end/mid-range RB3 just simply based on the lack of proven options at the position.

Wide Receivers

Tampa Bay: The Bucs were playing from behind last week and the ball was spread all over the field. However, Chris Godwin still managed to stay heavily involved and provided fantasy managers with a high floor yet again. Godwin now has 19 receptions on the season for 241 yards and two scores through three games and he’s clearly one of Brady’s most trusted targets. In a game where Brady is going to be playing with his hair on fire, Godwin has the best chance to benefit. Start him as a mid-range WR2 yet again. Mike Evans has now put together two very solid performances back-to-back and he benefited greatly from having Brown out of the lineup last week. With AB most likely back and ready for action against the Patriots this week, Evans moves back into low-end WR2/high-end WR3 territory that has the potential to hit big or come up empty. Antonio Brown wasn’t able to get off the COVID-19/Reserve list in time for last week’s game against the Rams, but he’ll almost certainly be back for this matchup against his former team. Brown disappointed in week two after a massive performance in week one, but he still has enormous potential when he’s on the field. Brady is going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder this week and you’re going to want to start any and all of the receiving options he has this week. Brown can be viewed as a high-end/mid-range WR3 with upside.

New England: Jakobi Meyers was one of the sole bright spots on offense last week for the Patriots. He saw a 27.5% target share in week three and reeled in nine of 14 targets for 94 yards. In a game that could easily see Jones throw for 45+ times again, Meyers should benefit greatly. With that being said, there’s very little upside to the talented wideout from a fantasy perspective. With the QB play struggling to get the ball into the end zone, Meyers’ upside is capped. He’ll bring a safe floor though as a high-end FLEX play.

Tight Ends

Tampa Bay: Rob Gronkowski missed practice on Wednesday, but there’s still optimism that he suits up this week in Foxborough against his former team. If he plays, he’s an automatic start for your lineup. If he doesn’t play though, there’s not another option worth looking at confidently for fantasy in this Bucs TE room.

New England: Jonnu Smith is currently tied for the seventh-most targets at the TE position so far this season, but it’s failing to translate to fantasy success. Smith has been credited with three drops by PFF and just a 4.1 ADOT, which are not encouraging signs for his fantasy outlook. In a game where the Patriots are going to have to throw to keep up, Smith could easily see 5+ targets yet again. But with the way he’s been playing lately – combined with the state of the offense – we simply can’t trust him in our lineups right now. Smith is a mid-range TE2 this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: Jonnu Smith is still seeing the targets in this offense, but he’s struggling to reel them in. His projections could change if his catch percentage goes back up.

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Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers

Date/Time: Monday October 4, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chargers -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 52.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chargers 28, Raiders 24.5

Las Vegas Raiders

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Los Angeles Chargers

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Quarterback

Las Vegas: Derek Carr is currently only four fantasy points away from being the QB4 on the season. He’s been utterly dominant so far this year and is putting up some truly ridiculous statistics. He now has 1,203 passing yards through three games, he’s averaging 8.8 YPA, and he’s credited with the most Big Time Throws in the NFL with 13. Big Time Throws is a stat measured by PFF that quantifies a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field. He’s been outstanding and deserves to be in consideration every single week as a solid starter. With that being said, he now gets to take on the Chargers defense that just kept Patrick Mahomes in check for the majority of week three and is only allowing 14.9 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Carr can still be started due to the assumed safe floor, but the upside might not be there in this matchup. He can be viewed as a high-end QB2.

Los Angeles: Everything was there to indicate that things would line up for Justin Herbert for fantasy eventually. We saw that play out this past week against the Chiefs and Herbert put on an absolute show. He threw for nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns to zero interceptions and there’s very little reason to think that that can’t continue. The Raiders’ defense has been playing much better so far this season, but they’re not going to be able to slow down Herbert and this Chargers passing attack. He can be viewed as a mid-range QB1 in week four.

Running Backs

Las Vegas: At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether or not Josh Jacobs will return to practice this week. If he does play, he’s absolutely in consideration against the Chargers defense that is allowing the most rushing yards in the NFL through three weeks. However, if he sits, Peyton Barber showed enough in week three that he can be dropped into your starting lineup if you’re in a pinch. We’ll continue to update as the week progresses. Kenyan Drake has gotten the opportunity to step up with Jacobs sidelined, but it’s not translating to much production. Drake totaled just seven fantasy points in week three against the Dolphins and there’s very little upside to starting him with or without Jacobs in the lineup. He can be viewed as a low-end RB3.

Los Angeles: We’re now through three weeks of the season and Austin Ekeler‘s been getting the job done for fantasy football yet again. He’s the RB5 in all of fantasy football and he’s getting the key opportunities around the goal-line that fantasy managers have been hoping for. Against a defense that’s allowing the 12th most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, Ekeler belongs in your starting lineups as a locked-in low-end RB1.

Wide Receivers

Las Vegas: Henry Ruggs is starting to come alive in this offense and the Raiders are beginning to utilize him the way that they should have all along. They are working to get him free releases off the line of scrimmage and simply get the ball in his hands to pick up easy yardage, which is what he is so good at. Through three weeks, Ruggs has the 14th-most receiving yards at the WR position in the NFL and he’s the WR25 on the season. Even in a tough matchup against the Chargers, Ruggs belongs in your starting lineup as a high-end FLEX play. Hunter Renfrow is truly fun to watch on the football field. Despite not being one of the strongest or fastest players on the field, he’s so dedicated to his craft and it comes through on the screen. If you haven’t watched it, make sure to check out the route that Renfrow made on his touchdown reception last week. It’s a thing of beauty. Renfrow’s a key part of this offense and Carr trusts him completely. Renfrow will draw coverage this week from Tevaughn Campbell, who is allowing just .12 Fantasy Points per Route Run this season, but he should see enough target volume to offset the tough matchup. He can be viewed as a safe FLEX play in Full PPR formats for week four. Bryan Edwards was talked about as a late-round sleeper during the off-season and it certainly has come to fruition through three weeks. Edwards has been stellar for the Raiders so far this season and he’s been a key reason why Carr leads the NFL in passing yards. Edwards is now averaging 21 YPR on the season and he’s been providing fantasy managers with plenty of upside – particularly in Standard formats – from their FLEX spot. In a tougher matchup against the Chargers secondary, it’s easy to see a path where Ruggs and Renfrow outperform Edwards, but he’s still certainly worth considering as a FLEX play in deeper formats due to his big-play potential.

Los Angeles: Keenan Allen has picked up right where he left off last year and he is producing at a high level yet again. Through three games, he is now averaging seven receptions, 86 receiving yards, and .3 touchdowns per game to go with a 27% target share. The Raiders aren’t going to have many answers for Allen and this Chargers passing attack and he can be viewed as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 yet again. Mike Williams has been utterly unstoppable through three weeks. He is now 6th in the NFL in receiving yards, tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns, and is the WR2 in fantasy football. We need to start discussing Williams as a locked-in low-end WR1 every single week with tremendous upside with the way he’s playing. Fire him up with confidence this year.

Tight Ends

Las Vegas: Since seeing 19 targets in week one, Darren Waller has dropped to just 13 targets over the past two games. While that certainly puts a damper on his fantasy ceiling, he’s still producing for lineups with his talent level and opportunity. The Chargers are currently allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season, so we could see the Raiders alter their game plan to feature Waller again this week. Continue to fire up Waller as a top-5 option every single week.

Los Angeles: With Allen, Williams, and Ekeler dominating so much of the target share in this Chargers offense, there’s not much left over week in and week out for Jared Cook. He falls into the same bucket like so many other TEs in fantasy football – a touchdown-or-bust play. He can be viewed as a mid-range TE2.

FantasyProjection Buster: Jared Cook has a wide range of outcomes and it all depends on whether or not he finds the end zone.

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Kyle Yates is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @KyleYNFL.