Tight end is one of the most, if not the most, frustrating position(s) to manage in fantasy football leagues. Outside of the big-name, prominent superstar talent players like Travis Kelce, George Kittle or once-upon-a-time Rob Gronkowski, there is a ton of variance year-over-year and not a lot of consistency at the position.
In the last four seasons alone, per FantasyData, here is a list of the number of tight ends who averaged double-digit points per game (PPG) in half-point per reception scoring (half-PPR):
- 2021: Six
- 2020: Four
- 2019: 10
- 2018: Six
Across the board, we are not always particularly great at identifying which tight ends will perform annually. What exactly do managers get wrong? Beyond Act of God occurrences (i.e., injury) or suspensions that turn predictions sour, the tendency to chase non-sticky stats like a player’s previous season touchdown total is undoubtedly the most significant. So what can we do? What factors should we be considering?
Because my jumbled research buried in the depths of my Google Docs is indecipherable/unable to be credited at this time, TJ Hernandez of 4for4 will do much of the heavy lifting for me here. Historically, anecdotally and statistically speaking, this information holds up. Here are the key factors to weigh when identifying a quality fantasy tight end:
- Target volume/share
- Evident opportunity for yards (total receiving yards, air yards, etc.)
- Prior non-touchdown-related performance
To crudely condense that information into my own terms, offenses with weak competition at the wide receiver position lend themselves to tight end producers. Not that a player’s individual talent is irrelevant, but fantasy managers are essentially looking for big-bodied receivers with a greater chance to catch the ball more often, not a skilled real-life football tight end. After all, we don’t get points for blocking.
This article will look at a handful of teams that could help or hurt the chances of sustaining a fantasy-relevant tight end in the 2022 NFL season.
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Favorable Offenses for Tight Ends: Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears
This one might be the most evident: the Cowboys ranked sixth in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) team offensive passing grade in 2021. The team no longer has Amari Cooper, will likely miss Michael Gallup to begin the season and recently lost James Washington to a broken foot. TE Dalton Schultz is primed for increased opportunity now, given that his only notable competition for receiving work is CeeDee Lamb. Considering Schultz produced as last year’s TE3 overall in half-PPR with only 43 average air yards per game and 13th-highest target share (16.5%) in 2021 per 4for4, there is certainly room to grow.
Schultz has generally smashed within TE1 range two seasons in a row and finds himself poised to do so again. He finished 2020 as TE15 overall (TE14 if we exclude Taysom Hill of the New Orleans Saints, who got time at quarterback that year) in half-PPR on 15 fewer targets and half as many touchdowns than he saw last season. So, it’s not like we haven’t seen it before from him.
Staying in the NFC, the Chicago Bears are another team without a ton of wide receiver competition and a tight end with some underlying past production that suggests future optimism in Cole Kmet. Beyond Darnell Mooney, the Bears’ wide receiver corps notably comprises of Byron Pringle, a reclamation project in the form of N’Keal Harry and rookie Velus Jones Jr., a player who primarily served as a special teams contributor until his sixth and final year of college.
Losing Allen Robinson in free agency and not doing much to supplement that loss leaves a wide-open door for Kmet. Despite finishing last season as TE22 overall in half-PPR, Kmet saw 83.7% of the team’s total snaps, the 11th-highest target share and 12th-most air yards per game among TEs in 2021 per FantasyData.
He is heavily involved in the Chicago offense, but unfortunately, his most significant issue to date has been in the touchdown department. Kmet has two career receiving touchdowns, both of which came in his rookie season in 2020. Much like we can’t weigh previous high-end touchdown production too heavily, we cannot hold a lack of success against a player who sees the field a ton and is walking straight into an opportunity that could translate into 100+ targets.
Hurtful Offenses for Tight Ends: Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For the record, there is a certain degree of talking from both sides of my mouth as it relates to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Documented evidence exists of my optimism for Pat Freiermuth in 2022. While there is certainly still room for it, recent developments surrounding the fantastic camp performances of rookie wideout George Pickens throw a seemingly-concerning wrench into the situation.
Additionally, as referenced in the piece most recently linked, Diontae Johnson‘s ‘hold-in’ situation resolved itself as he has signed an extension with the team. On top of that, Chase Claypool, Pickens and RB Najee Harris (a player that saw 94 targets in 2021) aren’t exactly going anywhere anytime soon.
As rare as it is to see a rookie tight end produce as Freiermuth did last year, it is admittedly somewhat contradictory to suggest the Steelers’ offense can reliably support a viable fantasy tight end. It is not my goal to backtrack on analysis but rather, given the sheer number of cooks in the proverbial offensive kitchen, to fairly highlight the risk involved with the second-year player.
To wrap up with another busy kitchen, Tampa Bay adding Julio Jones into the fold with Mike Evans, Russell Gage and Chris Godwin makes for a difficult path for any tight end to produce beyond the occasional touchdown. To some degree, a romantic view of “the Gronk replacement” makes sense to have come to mind considering Gronkowski averaged the fifth-most PPR PPG over the last two seasons per Stathead. Still, it’s important to remember there is no replacing Gronk.
Neither Cameron Brate nor Kyle Rudolph is likely to build a rapport with Tom Brady as strong as he had with Gronk or overcome the four receivers mentioned, let alone the running backs, as anything higher than the fifth option in the receiving game at maximum without catastrophic injury. FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) do not reflect that anyone is exceptionally high on any Bucs TE, as Brate and Rudolph are ECR TE35 and TE36, respectively. Still, don’t let yourself fall into that trap unless you are in a deeper league or some sort of tight-end premium scoring format.
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