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How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football: WRs & TEs (2024)

How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football: WRs & TEs (2024)

Before the 2024 NFL Draft kicked off in the Motor City, I released an article titled How to Value Rookies Pre-Draft (2024 Fantasy Football) to provide some insight into the approach for rookies in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.

The first-year talent that has entered the league the past few seasons warrants excitement because guys are hitting the ground running for fantasy football. The list is impressive: C.J. StroudZay FlowersSam LaPortaPuka NacuaBijan RobinsonJahmyr GibbsBreece HallGarrett WilsonChris OlaveDrake LondonChristian WatsonJustin JeffersonJa’Marr ChaseTee HigginsJonathan TaylorKyle PittsJaylen WaddleNajee HarrisJavonte Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Let’s look at fantasy football rookie wide receivers and tight ends and how you should value them.

2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide

How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football: Post-NFL Draft

Draft capital is a crucial factor to consider when evaluating the potential of rookie players in fantasy football. With every new prospect entering the league, there is a level of uncertainty that needs to be considered when determining their fantasy value.

Understanding how the NFL views a player based on their draft position can provide valuable insight into their potential success at the professional level.

By leveraging this information and historical data on rookie performance, you can create a winning strategy for the 2024 rookie class. This will give you an edge in dynasty rookie drafts, season-long leagues, and best ball drafts by identifying undervalued players and maximizing their potential in your lineup.

Wide Receivers

Ask anybody five years ago how long it takes for a wide receiver to break out, and the typical response would usually be three seasons. But how the college game has evolved in recent years has influenced how impactful wide receivers can be from the start. LSU standouts Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are the peak examples of the phenomenon, shattering records as first-year players. Ohio State WRs Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave found similar success in their most recent rookie seasons. Last season, the trend continued, although it was with WRs being drafted outside the first round between Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, who dominated as rookies.

Rookie Wide Receivers Since 2013

2013-2023
Drafted # Targets (Avg) FF Finish WR1% WR2% WR3% WR4%
1st Round 46 76 58 6% 26% 34% 38%
2nd Round 54 62 76 3% 10% 28% 32%
3rd Round 47 38 93 0% 3% 7% 16%
4th Round 46 23 98 0% 3% 3% 0%
5th Round 45 28 88 2% 2% 8% 9%
6th Round+ 73 10 93 0% 0% 0% 0%

We have reached the point that if a receiver hasn’t hit by “Year 2” nowadays, the panic button goes off as both real-life and fantasy teams look to move on.

And I can’t argue the logic with that. The track record of rookie WRs who do nothing in Year 1 is bad. The most recent “success” story is D.J. Chark, who had a great sophomore year after virtually doing nothing as a rookie. He has done nothing since.

However, compared to running backs, there is a stark contrast in hit rates based on draft capital. Twenty-six percent of first-round wide receivers finishing as top-24 options is slightly more probable than a third-round running back ending as a top-24 option (18%).

Therefore, the data suggests that you should never draft a third-round running back over a WR with Round 1 draft capital.

Rookie WRs versus Rookie RBs

Last year’s rookie draft ADP reflected this.

And aside from Quentin Johnston’s total face plant, you would have come out on top yet again, favoring the first-round WRs versus any other RB outside Round 1 from last season. The only exception is Dolphins RB De’Von Achane, who skyrocketed as a rookie. But even as good as he was in Year 1, his value is only slightly superior to the 3 other WRs selected in Round 1 from the 2023 NFL Draft per the FantasyPros Trade Value Chart.

Simply put, he was an outlier.

In 2022, there were times when Jahan Dotson was drafted after Isaiah Spiller, Dameon Pierce, and Rachaad White. In hindsight, that still looks like a W with Dotson valued higher than both Spiller and Pierce. But if you had conviction on White (I know I liked him a lot), you would have been proven right after two years.

You typically don’t want to be that person in your rookie drafts or redraft leagues to pass on one of the seven Round 1 WRs (or two more selected inside the top 34 real-life NFL Draft) in favor of a Day 2 running back (Round 3-plus). It tends to be a bad process that plays out over time and will not work in your favor.

This brings us to this year’s draft, in which a whopping 11 WRs were drafted in the first two rounds.

2024 Wide Receivers Drafted Rounds 1-2

Round No. Selection Team Player Pre-Draft ADP Best Ball ADP (5/1/2024) College
1 4 Arizona Cardinals Marvin Harrison Jr. WR10 WR9 Ohio State
1 6 New York Giants Malik Nabers WR23 WR18 LSU
1 9 Chicago Bears Rome Odunze WR31 WR30 Washington
1 23 Jacksonville Jaguars Brian Thomas Jr. WR38 WR38 LSU
1 28 Kansas City Chiefs Xavier Worthy WR52 WR40 Texas
1 31 San Francisco 49ers Ricky Pearsall WR73 WR65 Florida
1 32 Carolina Panthers Xavier Legette WR70 WR66 South Carolina
2 33 Buffalo Bills Keon Coleman WR58 WR51 Florida State
2 34 Los Angeles Chargers Ladd McConkey WR55 WR46 Georgia
2 37 New England Patriots Ja’Lynn Polk WR76 WR71 Washington
2 52 Indianapolis Colts Adonai Mitchell WR48 WR47 Texas

The current rookie ADP has favored the early-drafted WRs, but Trey Benson is a Round 3 running back who will go before a Round 1 WR.

Although the data suggests that’s an incorrect approach in the aggregate, the White/Achane examples suggest it’s not impossible for their value to exceed one, if not multiple, WRs selected in Round 1 (or the very top of Round 2).

Because not all of the top seven Round 1 WRs are going to hit. That’s for sure.

So, I think it’s fair to go with Benson (or Brooks, for that matter) over some of the Round 1 WRs if you have reservations about them. But you do take on much more risk. As much as I like Benson, he’s still a third-round pick. Nothing would stop Arizona from replacing him after a so-so year. It’s harder for franchises to do that with WRs they draft in Round 1 (unless you are Quentin Johnston).

The current rookie ECR has six WRs ranked before Brooks and seven WRs ranked before Benson. Those WRs who are left out are Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Legette, i.e., the last two picks of Round 1 and the first pick in Round 2.

I’m in lockstep with consensus going with Benson over the likes of Coleman, Legette and Pearsall. Considering these WRs are more fringe first-rounders than top-20/15 guys, I understand going in the RB direction.

However, it’s worth calling out that Blake Corum is ranked ahead of Legette, which I don’t agree with. That’s a prime example of reaching too far on a Round 3 RB versus a Round 1 WR.

The First Two Rounds

The most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers are consistently drafted in the first two rounds. Thirty-eight rookie wide receivers have finished inside the top 36 (WR3 territory) over the last 10 years — 31 were drafted inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft (82%).

Round two or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 62% clip.

Based on the hit rates that I’ve previously touched on, I’d project at least two or three of the seven first-round rookie WRs in this class to finish as top-24 options. Only two are priced as such, which means the others are screaming rookie values, with the other five going outside the top 30 WRs (Odunze is WR30). Of the four Round 2 WRs selected, I’d project maybe one to finish as a top-24 option or at least a top-36 option.

Last year, this is where I suggested Rashee Rice seemed like the best bet based on the opportunity he should see in a high-powered Chiefs option. I also mentioned Marvin Mims (miss).

If we just copy-and-paste the analysis from Rice, Ladd McConkey is the obvious answer, given his easy path to targets. Keon Coleman’s more of an exact match from Rice’s situation, simply based on the opportunity he should see in a high-powered Bills option. Déjà vu.

I’d also estimate that another rookie WR finishes inside the top 36 with 2nd-round picks, offering a 26% fantasy WR3 hit rate. With both McConkey and Coleman going outside the top 36, they should be top draft targets based on their value proposition.

Considering all 11 of the Round 2 or higher rookie WRs, there’s a strong chance that more than half will finish as WR3s in their first season. Round 2 or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 62% clip.

Presuming that the “Big Three” account for three of those top 36 finishes (given the ADP, that is the expectation), you could expect four/five of the remaining first- and second-rounders to finish inside the top-36 with decent odds.

Considering eight of them have an ADP outside the top 36 based on the current best ball ADP, you need to draft them aggressively until the market adjusts. Xavier Worthy is probably my favorite bet to do so, based on his landing spot with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Round 3 Wide Receivers

After we get out of Round 2, expectations need to change.

Don’t be overly bullish on the Round 3 guys like Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Jalen McMillan or Luke McCaffrey.

Similar to the running back position, there’s another drastic fall from Round 2 to Round 3. Just four of 45 third-round wide receivers have finished top 36 since 2013, including one hit over the past four seasons—Tank Dell as the WR37. He likely would have easily surpassed this rank had it not been for the injuries.

Last year I fell for the Tennessee WRs as Round 3 picks and got burned. But that won’t detract me from trying to find this year’s Tank Dell in Round 3 among the rookie WRs. My target is Jermaine Burton.

He was rumored to fall in the draft due to off-the-field issues. So, it’s a massive win for his NFL outlook for him to earn Round 3 draft capital (80th) overall by the Bengals.

The writing is on the wall that Tee Higgins is not in the Bengals’ long-term plans. Whether he gets moved this year or next offseason, Burton’s stock will be on the rise this time in 2025.

It’s better to get ahead of it now rather than later. Because Burton can straight-up ball when his head is on straight. He was used exclusively downfield during his final year at Alabama, with a 20.2 aDOT (3rd-highest in the FBS) in 2023. And zero drops. Burton finished 12th overall in yards per route run. He possesses an explosive skillset with 4.45 wheels and jumps in the 82nd percentile-plus.

He’s an awesome fit as the future Robin to Ja’Marr Chase‘s Batman in Cincy’s WR room. It’s been reported that Burton’s been training with former Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, so there’s a comfort level between Burton and the Bengals organization.

Rounds 4-7 Rookie WRs

Outside the top-100 picks, it’s better to ignore the majority of WRs taken from Rounds 4-plus.

There have been 35 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round from 2013-2020. Not a single one finished as a top-50 wide receiver in their rookie year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only fourth-round WR to buck the trend since 2013. The Lions’ rookie wide receiver was the extreme outlier in this category in 2021, finishing as the WR21.

It was more of the same in 2023, with fourth-round rookie WRs between Derius Davis, Tyler Scott and Charlie Jones.

The primary takeaway is to aggressively pursue wide receivers with round one or round two draft capital but be extremely wary of those who go round three or later. St. Brown’s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated.

And neither is Puka Nacua’s unprecedented ascension to WR1 status in 2023.

It’s funny to bring his name up in retrospect, as I name-dropped him in this article last year.

Here’s what I said.

“It’s easy to tell yourself a story that guys like Derius Davis, Tyler Scott or Puka Nacua can have a stretch of fantasy production. But realistically, you are just praying for a spike week. I wouldn’t touch any of these guys outside the 18th round of a best-ball format. And in the case of Davis/Scott, it would only happen if I rostered Justin Herbert or Justin Fields as my quarterback.

My one sole exception for drafting Day 3 WRs would be the new Patriots and former LSU wide receiver Kayshon Boutte.”

???

Another L. Although, I was correct about him not clogging your dynasty roster.

But in all seriousness, there still are some Day 3 WRs that have caught my attention.

Javon Baker, Troy Franklin, Malik Washington, Jacob Cowing and Ainias Smith.

Javon Baker (NE)

Baker’s my favorite, as I think he could ascend to No. 1 WR status on the Patriots.

After being drafted, he broke the internet with this quote: “I make people in wheelchairs stand up.” New head coach Jerod Mayo described him as “all ball.”

So even though the Patriots drafted Washington’s Ja’Lynn Polk two rounds ahead of Javon Baker, I believe the 4th-rounder offers a much higher ceiling as a potential alpha in New England’s passing game. Baker ended the 2023 college season fifth in yards per route run among the 2024 WR draft class (3.21). He also finished fourth in targets and third in receptions of 20-plus air yards in 2023. The only other WRs in the class to do so (Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers) were selected in Round 1. New England has desperately needed to add a WR with an edge to his game, and the former UCF product brings that immediately.

Troy Franklin (DEN)

Franklin’s fall into Day 3 isn’t ideal, but his age-adjusted production profile is hard to beat.

In another year where WR wasn’t as deep, he likely would have gone earlier. Other teams were scared off due to his poor combine showing, slight frame and lack of play strength. But more importantly, he lands on a relatively weak WR depth chart where his 4th-round pedigree won’t hinder his playing time.

Payton had come out and said that he envisions Franklin in the “Z” role, which Jerry Jeudy occupied last season.

And if you are Bo Nix, it seems likely you’ll lean on your teammate with whom you’ve built chemistry over the past several years rather than a second-year Marvin Mims who struggled to earn playing time/targets as a rookie.

But with both players, you need to acknowledge they are attached to rookie quarterbacks, who are notorious for limiting WR fantasy production.

Malik Washington (MIA)

Malik Washington, Jacob Cowing, and Ainias Smith are all attached to great quarterbacks but will likely need an injury (or two) to force their way onto the field.

All those WRs are at least 23 years old, so they have the experience to hit the ground running. If I had to bet on one hitting, I’d push my chips in Washington.

As a YAC machine, he’s a perfect fit in the Dolphins’ offense, which desperately needs another WR playmaker behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. And unlike Baker/Franklin, Washington has a quarterback who can fuel fantasy production—which needs to be considered when looking at a Day 3 WR to smash through expectations. They need opportunity AND a quarterback.

Mike McDaniel is extremely high on Washington. He was bugging his general manager to draft him several rounds earlier.

Here’s what else he said about the sixth-round draft pick from Virginia.

Rome Odunze (CHI)

At the end of the day, you want to be overly aggressive attacking rookies in the 2024 WR draft class. The top three guys are priced appropriately, but they are inherently keeping this next tier of rookie WR prices in check. Exploit them.

Last season, all non-Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR30) rookie WRs were being selected after WR45. In 2022, the top six rookie names were in the WR34-WR54 range.

Again, rookie WRs last season — in a weaker class — were going ahead of all the non-Brian Thomas/Xavier Worthy WRs.

It’s funny to draw another JSN/Odunze parallel with their situations eerily similar as rookies: No. 3 projected WR on a new team, Shane Waldron as the OC, etc.

I’ll be surprised if Odunze disappoints like JSN did last year. I said that he was the best value pre-draft among the “Big Three,” and he remains their post-draft.

Xavier Legette looks like he’s being devalued the most despite Round 1 draft capital. Reminds me of Josh Downs and Jahan Dotson’s falls. One of Legette’s closest comps is Davante Adams, per Mock Draftable. Another close comparable is Donte Moncrief, also a 2014 prospect.

The last thing I want to note — tying things back to the 2014 NFL Draft, which was strong at WR and weak at RB — the talent/production pool fell off a cliff after round two. Even in a talent-rich WR class, NFL coaches and GMs sniffed out almost all the top producers in the first two rounds.

In a sense, nobody besides John Brown and Martavis Bryant slipped through the cracks. So, with everybody on a quest to find “this year’s Puka Nacua” – I know it drives clicks—the best rookie WR who provides the biggest edge in fantasy football will likely be one of the guys selected in Round 1 or 2. Look for those values first.

Dial in on the rookies with round one or two draft capital and reap the rewards, especially in the late rounds. Grabbing these late-round WRs allows you to stockpile RBs, QBs, and TEs earlier in your best-ball drafts.

Valuing Tight Ends in Rookie Drafts

There was once a time when you could always look the other way in redraft leagues when it comes to rookie tight ends. Kyle Pitts from three years ago looked like the lone exception to the general rule of thumb. He was used more like a wide receiver in the Atlanta Falcons offense, which is why he found success as the TE7 overall in his first season. The dude is also just a unicorn, and no standard rookie tight ends should be compared to him. But give credit to Matt Ryan, no stranger to fueling fantasy success.

At the time, Pitts joined Evan Engram as the only rookie tight end to finish as a top-12 option over the last 10 years. Although Pat Freiermuth came close in 2021, finishing 2021 as the TE13 thanks to seven receiving touchdowns. The Penn State product is also the first rookie tight end selected in the second round to finish as a top-18 option since 2013.

I am burying the lede here, of course. In 2023, we received an elite rookie tight end and the overall fantasy TE1 in Sam LaPorta. Fellow rookie Dalton Kincaid also finished as a TE1 (TE12). We have now had four rookie tight ends finish inside the top 12 as rookies. And all played with good quarterbacks. Don’t forget that.

Tucker Kraft was also productive at TE28, as was fellow rookie Packers TE Luke Musgrave (TE31). Michael Mayer was the TE33 to round out a beyond-productive tight-end rookie class.

Rookie Tight Ends Since 2013

Drafted # Targets (Avg) FF Finish TE1% Top-18% TE2%
1st Round 10 67 23 30% 40% 60%
2nd Round 22 38 39 5% 9% 28%
3rd Round 30 19 51 0% 3% 7%
4th Round 25 24 46 0% 4% 12%
5th Round 25 11 58 0% 0% 4%
6th Round+ 26 11 62 0% 0% 0%

Still, a rookie tight end also needs strong draft capital to produce in Year 1 in addition to quarterback play. 2022’s best-performing rookie tight end, Chigoziem Okonkwo, as a fifth-rounder is out of the norm.

Simply put, a rookie tight end almost always needs to be drafted in round one for hopes of fantasy relevance in Year 1 with a respectable 67 target average (TE20 last season). Round two is much tougher to get behind for any tight end historically — at least until last season.

Brock Bowers (LV)

For those that have high hopes on rookie tight end Brock Bowers delivering in Year 1, you are in luck. He’s the TE9 in best ball ADP after being selected 13th overall in the NFL Draft. But the Georgia product is not being slept on in any capacity compared to last year’s first-round TEs between Mayer (TE21) and Kincaid (TE25). Kincaid’s price got up to TE16 after he was drafted by Buffalo in Round 1.

However, Bowers is being drafted very close to his ceiling as a locked-in fantasy TE1, and I can’t support that price given his unfavorable landing spot. Part of the reason why highly drafted rookie tight ends have failed is they go to bad teams with bad QBs.

Hello, 2024 Las Vegas Raiders.

I just can’t get behind this landing spot. Are we honestly convinced that new Raiders OC Luke Getsy is going to create an offense that takes advantage of Bowers as a true big slot while feeding WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers? Let alone in an offense that HC Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball 30-plus times per game? With Aidan O’Connell/Gardner Minshew at quarterback?

We know that tight ends can be the most landing-dependent offensive pieces. Kyle Pitts was a good rookie with Matt Ryan. Done nothing since.

Ben Sinnott (WAS)

After Bowers, we only had one tight end drafted in Round 2. Ben Sinnott by the Washington Commanders. And just one more drafted on Day 2, with Illinois’ Tip Reiman by the Arizona Cardinals in Round 3 (82nd overall).

Twenty-eight percent of Round 2 tight ends finish as top-24 options, so expect 1-2 to be fantasy-relevant in Year 1. Unless Trey McBride is injured, it’s pretty easy to see Sinnott finishing in the top-24 conversation as the clear-cut TE2 in the class.

It’s hard to beat the landing spot that Sinnott got with the Washington Commanders, a team desperately looking for additional playmakers. Pre-draft, the Commanders’ top three playmakers were Terry McLaurinJahan Dotson, and Zach Ertz (cringe).

Dyami Brown and Jamison Crowder are penciled in to see a ton of WR snaps, which likely isn’t ideal. Ertz is not a long-term option at tight end. Given the overwhelming evidence of more than 1 of these Washington decision-makers drafting a tight end with Day 2 capital, I expected the Commanders to draft a tight end in this year’s draft. And Sinnott fits what Adam Peters (formerly of the 49ers) would want at tight end. Great after the catch, super productive at the college level, above average athleticism, and experience as a fullback.

He’s Sam LaPortaGeorge Kittle, and Kyle Juszczyk, all wrapped up into a fun package. The best part is that he has a path to targets in the Commanders’ offense.

Now, it remains to be seen how effective Jayden Daniels will be in Year 1. But it’s clear that Sinnott has firmly stamped his TE2 ticket in this class after hovering in that area pre-draft.

I liked him a lot as a tight-end prospect, so I don’t need to be convinced any further with this great situation he finds himself in.

Just praying that Kingsbury doesn’t play Ertz over Sinnott as he did McBride during his rookie year. I also don’t love Peters’ praise of Sinnott’s blocking.

He’s the TE24 in early best ball ADP.

It wasn’t until Day 3 that tight ends started to fly off the board. Most of these guys are facing a major uphill battle for Year 1 production.

I’ll take shots at Ja’Tavion Sanders, Theo Johnson or Erick All, where I can at least envision them rising depth charts on their respective rosters.

Ja’Tavion Sanders (CAR)

Sanders was viewed as the rookie TE2 (pre-draft ADP TE25), and his price has taken a hit (TE29). But the Panthers are a very sneaky fantasy football landing spot for a tight end – given that Dave Canales “awarded” Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton an elite role in 2023. The Bucs tight end played nearly every single snap and ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks (3rd among TEs). Look out for Sanders in a full-time receiving role for the Panthers. Sorry Tommy Tremble.

The former Texas tight end just turned 21. He broke out early in his college career at age 19 during the 2022 season, posting a 21% dominator rating with 5 TDs, 54 receptions (7th in the nation), and 613 receiving yards.

In 2023, he was still extremely efficient even with his counting stats falling amid an ankle injury and competition from two highly drafted WRs this year – Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. He recorded zero drops on 67 targets and finished 3rd in total YAC among the 2024 tight end class. He averaged over 15 yards per catch – second highest in the class (15.2) – with his downfield presence. But he wasn’t featured in the red zone.

Sanders isn’t a complete blocker—much more of a tight end receiver type—but he has enough athleticism to be a solid receiving threat at the next level. Given his youth, there’s room for Sanders to grow.

Theo Johnson (NYG)

The rumor was the Giants were searching for a pass-catching tight end in this year’s draft, with Darren Waller likely retiring. Johnson has a chance to command targets in Big Blue’s offense, which is a win in my book. Daniel Bellinger is more of a blocking tight end. And after fellow rookie Malik Nabers, HC Brian Daboll is searching for playmakers to get the ball to. The former Nittany Lion is TE38 in early best ball ADP.

Erick All (CIN)

All have injury concerns, but he also has the smash landing spot to make a LaPorta/Kincaid-level impact. The Bengals don’t have an established TE1 and they have an elite passer in Joe Burrow. Tee Higgins gets traded, and other Bengals WRs don’t work out besides Ja’Marr Chase…and bingo. All says he will be ready for training camp, so I am “ALL” about buying the dip at his TE40 ADP. When in doubt, draft a former Iowa tight end. 11-inch hands (98th percentile).

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