Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Middle Round Advice (2025)

Welcome back to another summer of best ball fantasy football drafting. There’s no better way to gear up for the start of redraft season than by drafting best ball teams to your heart’s desire.

This piece will break down the early rounds of fantasy football drafts. It’s Part II of a three-part series and is a part of the FantasyPros best ball draft kit. We are tackling the middle rounds of best ball drafts. Before diving in headfirst, be sure to read my Early Round Fantasy Football Strategy: Best Ball (2025), where we covered the first four rounds.

Welcome back to another summer of best ball fantasy football drafting. There’s no better way to gear up for the start of redraft season than by drafting best ball teams to your heart’s desire.

Fantasy Football Best Ball: Middle Round Strategy

If you want more best ball content, be sure to check out the weekly FantasyPros Twitch show, featuring me and the United Kingdom’s No. 1 fantasy football fanatic/addict (his words, not mine), Tom Strachan. Tom’s also been doing a ton of best ball work for the site.

Enough housekeeping, let’s dive into the analysis.

I’m fascinated by the middle rounds of fantasy football best ball drafts. Because this is where there are so many make-or-break picks.

League winners can and often emerge from this range, but there are also landmines drafters need to be wary of. You are spending enough draft capital in the middle rounds that a big swing and miss can hurt you.

Conversely, a home-run pick in rounds five to nine or picks 50-100 (the range we will be referring to as middle rounds for this piece) can put you over the top. Note that some of the middle round principles can apply to rounds three and four.

Players who have emerged as big hits in 2024 — either overall or points per game (PPG) — such as James Cook, Rashee Rice, Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, George Kittle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Daniels, Courtland Sutton, Ladd McConkey, Jameson Williams and Brock Bowers, previously offered exceptional value and advanced their teams considerably from their positions in the middle rounds.

But around a lot of these middle-round players who hit were guys who were either major disappointments or just easily replaceable — Non-difference-makers.

With that in mind, let’s explore further and look at how you should approach the middle rounds of your best ball drafts for 2025.

Middle Round Best Ball Strategies

A lot of conversation surrounding fantasy football is on the topic of upside. Upside wins championships. And as much analysis we do for every single player across all 32 NFL teams, there’s probably a handful of players who are truly difference makers every single season. Most are selected in the top two rounds, while others massively outperform their late-round average draft position (ADP).

These are the players that annually “define” that year in fantasy football.

Finding these players should be the focus. The “types” of players that can make huge leaps.

The players drafted in the middle rounds are the market’s way of projecting the most likely candidates to make the leap. Or at least that’s how it should be.

Because mixed in with upside picks are the value plays. Players who fall because of a “lack of upside” but still offer value in the best ball format, where it’s best not to load up on too many players that could be total zeroes.

“Staying out of the middle” is a concept I think is very actionable through many facets of our fantasy game. I discuss in my redraft “2025 Perfect Draft” piece, but the takeaways apply to best ball as well.

We (the royal we) think that the middle-round players are next in line to finish up at the top. But in reality, they are more likely to finish closer to those going behind them. More specifically, at running back/tight end and somewhat at quarterback. The middle tiers of the onesie positions tend to perform poorly versus cost. Hence, late-round tight end and late-round quarterback strategies are often profitable. They offer the same return as the middle guys… at a fraction of the cost.

If you don’t draft an actual elite option at quarterback/tight end, you don’t want to be next in line to address that position. For quarterbacks, it doesn’t mean you have to completely avoid the entire middle tier, but waiting a bit can help you unearth value. Don’t draft Baker Mayfield 78th overall when Kyler Murray/Brock Purdy go one or two rounds after him, despite extremely close median projections.

At running back, the conversation is around the dead zone. The actual “zone” has moved in recent years, but there are still plenty of dead-zone archetype backs littered in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. Simply put, they are often retread veterans that are one-dimensional rushers without much receiving upside, who see a boosted price based on situational factors such as lack of “perceived” competition.

I could say just avoid all those positions in the middle tier, but that’s easier said than done. You can’t just draft five wide receivers straight (maybe?).

It’s just shifting your focus to the types of players you draft at those specific positions.

Ask yourself. Can this quarterback/running back/tight end leap into the elite tier? Are we going to draft them higher in 2026?

If the answer is not a resounding yes, you can probably look elsewhere. Or wait and get the value at the position for a cheaper price.

Kicking Things Off

At this point in the draft, entering round five, you have already selected a good chunk of your team. You’ve built the foundation and have a strategy path laid out in some capacity.

I laid out several first four-round starts in my Early Round Fantasy Football Strategy: Best Ball (2025) article.

Hero RB: Christian McCaffrey, A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Jalen Hurts
Zero RB: CeeDee Lamb, Brock Bowers, Davante Adams, Xavier Worthy
Robust RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Superhero RB: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Kenneth Walker/Ashton Jeanty, Christian McCaffrey, Garrett Wilson, George Kittle
Elite QB: CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Jalen Hurts/Christian McCaffrey, A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Jalen Hurts
Elite TE/Zero RB: CeeDee Lamb, Brock Bowers, Davante Adams, Xavier Worthy

Now the focus needs to be on going best player available.

Too many times, drafters make the mistake of drafting for need in the middle rounds, when the priority should be filling your roster with as many potential level jumpers or league-winners as humanly possible. Especially at the wide receiver position.

Because the name of the game at wide receiver is still all about value. You want to scoop up value in the middle to later portions of drafts, with the position counting for the biggest part of your best ball roster. Take advantage of receivers who fall in ADP, while other teams “reach” on the other positions, which I don’t want to prioritize.

You will be shocked how quickly the wide receiver position dries up despite the false narrative that the position is deep every year. It’s not deep overall. It’s deep within the top couple of tiers,

If anything, it’s extremely diluted, which makes it much more essential that you draft the remaining wideouts toward the start of the middle rounds. You’ll feel (and perform) much better knowing you aren’t trudging out receivers ranked outside the top 40 as your weekly WR3.

Wide receivers in the middle rounds are often the ones that tend to take massive leaps and vastly outperform their ADP. And when in doubt, just keep drafting those who have breakout potential. Chances are they all won’t hit… but all you need is one to hit big to reap the benefits. You’ll want at least eight or nine receivers overall, with a minimum of three and up to four cracking your starting weekly lineup. Gravitate toward the pass-catchers in a high-powered offense with some target ambiguity versus the guy who has a more obvious high-end target floor in a bad offense.

In best ball, we don’t necessarily need to overpay for targets/routes.

Other things to keep in mind…

Some of the best return on investment (ROI) picks you can make are drafting real-life No. 2s discounted solely because they are viewed as No. 2s by the market. It’s not because they aren’t talented or are in bad situations. It’s the opposite usually, which is why they are the perfect targets in drafts. And their prices will almost always be kept in check to some extent due to the presence of the No. 1 wide receiver on their team. Call it the WR1 firewall.

But be wary that you need to be price-sensitive to these No. 2 WRs. For example, in 2023, the most expensive No. 2 WRs — Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins — failed to live up to expectations.

In 2024, Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Kupp and Jaylen Waddle (again) were busts as the three most expensive No. 2 WRs. See a pattern?

But the majority of cheaper real-life WR2s by ADP (outside the top 24) — Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Brian Thomas Jr., Jameson Williams — were excellent value selections who drastically beat their ADPs.

And they were all drafted in the middle rounds…

Some of my favorite wide receivers to targets from rounds 5-9 (picks 50-100) include Tetairoa McMillan, Jameson Williams, Jaylen Waddle, Calvin Ridley, Jauan Jennings, Rome Odunze, Jakobi Meyers, Ricky Pearsall, Jayden Reed and Josh Downs.

In 2025 early best ball drafts, some of the cheaper real-life No. 2 WRs (outside top-24) include: Jameson Williams, George Pickens, Chris Godwin, Jaylen Waddle, Jordan Addison, Rome Odunze, Deebo Samuel, Ricky Pearsall, Matthew Golden, Cooper Kupp, Darnell Mooney, Michael Pittman Jr., Keon Coleman, Jayden Higgins, Tre Harris, Rashid Shaheed, Rashod Bateman and Marvin Mims.

To hammer your edge at wide receiver, you need to hit on these discounted No. 2 WRs in the middle-to-late rounds as the actual difference-makers/level-jumpers.

Be aggressive drafting receivers in this range and load up on the position with so many roster spots to fill. Eight to nine receivers should suffice. And stack wide receivers not just with their quarterbacks but with their wide receivers/tight end teammates as well. An underrated aspect of this is that if one of them goes down or misses time, the other likely benefits from a higher target share, especially in the case of No. 2s.

Your league title starts here. Get the tools and strategy you need in the 2025 Draft Kit.

WR Scoring Cliff

Another thing to consider is that wide receiver scoring tends to be flatter. Again, you have the elite elite wideouts at the top. In 2023, the top five scorers were at 17+ PPG. They were also in the top seven overall picks in ADP.

In 2024, the top five scorers were at 15+ points per game. The ones who played a full season were drafted as top-eight overall picks in ADP.

If you can draft a truly elite fantasy wideout in rounds one or two, as alluded to at the top, it’s worth it. But after the elite guys, we see things stagnate and scoring flatten. Wideouts ranked sixth to 21st fluctuated between 15-14.7 and 12.5-12.1 PPG. Receivers from 22nd to 46th score between 12 and 9.5-9.0 PPG. Ergo, non-elite fantasy wideouts are basically all just fantasy WR2s. And low-end fantasy WR2s are just a massive tier that leaks into the WR4 range.

The significant point drop after the elite tier, although admittedly there is a strong tier behind Ja’Marr Chase/Justin Jefferson/CeeDee Lamb, is a flatter scoring curve for the wide receivers ranked 10th and beyond, up to the WR4 range (top-48).

In past years, the data suggested it’s a viable strategy to wait on drafting wide receivers after the elite options are off the board, particularly in drafts where the value of securing top performers at other positions (such as running backs or quarterbacks who may have a steeper drop-off in scoring) could outweigh the benefits of selecting an elite or pseudo elite wide receiver outside the top 10. The reasoning here is that you might still be able to draft wideouts with similar scoring expectations later, allowing you to maximize value at other positions in the earlier rounds.

But this year, with wide receiver at the top being a bit deeper because of the 2024 WR class, we as drafters can have our cake and eat it, too. We can access elite WR1 seasons later in round one and round two because of how great it is at the top. The exact tiering might vary, whether it’s eight, 10 or 12, etc. But I’m finding it hard, if not extremely difficult, not to select at least one of my top-12 ranked wide receivers in the first two rounds.

Non-elite fantasy wideouts tend to just be fantasy WR2s. And low-end fantasy WR2s are just a massive tier that leaks into the WR4 range.

So, it’s not WR1, WR2, WR3, etc. It’s more like Elite WR, WR2 and WR4 as the three tiers of wide receivers based on last year’s scoring. A fantasy WR3 isn’t a thing.

This supports the strategy of potentially waiting to draft wide receivers after the top performers are off the board, as the variance in performance increases, but it doesn’t drastically change once you move past the top 20 at the position.

Focus on players who could make major leaps based on archetype. Not necessarily their median projection. Can this wide receiver break out in 2025? And if they also have a decent median projection, you are drafting the ideal wideout in the middle rounds.

If a receiver in the middle rounds looks and smells cheap, they probably are. And the same goes for if you feel they are overvalued.

Because inherently the way receiver scoring is, those with higher ADPs are more difficult bets to return the investment on their ADP. They are preferred for a reason — upside arguments, etc. But there’s no denying you can always grab another wide receiver a round later that will probably meet or potentially exceed a player before them in scoring.

However, you must acknowledge you can’t keep punting the position because there is another cliff after the WR4 tier. Eventually, you need to compile points at the position, even if it’s a neutral or negative-EV selection at the time of drafting.

Be firm and concise in creating three or four tiers for receivers, with an elite tier (potential for top-five scoring), a pseudo elite tier (just on the cusp), a top-20 tier and then a 21-48 range tier where you can pick your flavor. Based on your platform’s ADP, you can mix up your receiver exposure in this range.

For me, the top three wideouts are clear as day. After that, I could see a lot of arguments for the next 6-8 wideouts.

It’s not until we get to Terry McLaurin that things start to taper off in the back-end WR2 range.

And after we hit George Pickens as my WR36, there’s a clear drop-off in the wide receiver rankings with rookies, second-year receivers and third-year receivers entering the conversation.

The Follow-Up and Stacking

We want to go beyond “just draft wide receivers” in the middle rounds to build the best squad. And that brings us to stacking.

Stack offenses when possible, but please don’t overreach. Throwing ADP out the window to draft a guy a few rounds ahead for stacking purposes won’t help you in the long run. Other teams in some tournament settings will have the same stack but have a more well-rounded roster because they didn’t reach a half-round or full-round versus ADP.

Who you select in the early rounds will set the foundation for stacking in the middle rounds as you put offensive pieces from the same teams together.

But again, don’t overextend yourself. Chances are that if many of the drafters are stacking, the right pieces will fall back to you at value or even at a suppressed ADP. Practice discipline stacking.

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Back to Running Backs

Once you’ve got a plethora of breakout and staple wideouts to work with (after all, late-round wide receiver is not usually a winning formula), I now permit you to dive back into the running back pool before we enter the double-digit rounds.

I can guarantee you will feel better about overloading with receiver breakouts than settling for an RB2 because you have to in the first six rounds.

Because after wide receivers, breakout running backs are the next target in the middle rounds. Specifically, once the drafts enter the late RB2/early RB3 range (RB20-RB38) — running backs with a top-40 ADP.

For simplicity, let’s consider it as round seven.

That group has traditionally had the greatest hit rate for fantasy running backs.

However, last year was not the case — RB20-RB36 was terrible. Part of that was due to the majority of backs staying healthy last season without any rookies rising to the occasion. Last season was not the norm.

For whatever it’s worth, we still did see a few running back hits toward the later portion of this range: Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins and Rico Dowdle (RB37-RB44 range).

Here are some of my favorites in 2025: RJ Harvey, James Conner, TreVeyon Henderson, Kaleb Johnson, Isiah Pacheco, Jaylen Warren, Jordan Mason, Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, Bhayshul Tuten, J.K. Dobbins, Trey Benson, Braelon Allen and Rico Dowdle.

Identifying running backs with the potential to see/possess goal-line roles in high-scoring offenses is key. Pinpointing a team’s primary red-zone back is an easy way to hit on a fantasy running back.

Last year’s examples? James Cook and Brian Robinson Jr.

If you are low on the “starter,” you should naturally be higher on the No. 2 RB in the same backfield. Didn’t believe in Rachaad White? You should have drafted more of Bucky Irving (I wish I did).

Target impending free agent running backs.

The biggest hits from 2022 include Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders and Jamaal Williams. In 2023, it wasn’t as successful, but I wanted to see if this was a trend or more of an outlier. In 2024, we saw a ton of running backs on new teams hit in a big way after signing big contracts.

What’s interesting, though, is that many who were forced to play on one-year deals, such as Dobbins, Jones, Conner, Harris, Dowdle and Hubbard, provided solid returns.

Conner and Hubbard earned extensions before the season ended after showing out. What’s even more interesting is that these two backs played on the two teams that invested some of the highest draft capital into running backs in the 2024 NFL Draft. Tangent time? You bet:

At the time, the draft selections of Trey Benson and Jonathon Brooks made sense. The veterans were on expiring deals, so these two would lead the backfields in 2025. Not the case as we fast forward to this season.
Kyren Williams‘ offseason is the closest to that of Hubbard and Conner, given he is entering a contract year while the team drafted a back in this year’s draft (fourth round).
Travis Etienne‘s situation best resembles Hubbard’s situation, playing on the final year of his rookie contract under a new head coach. They also drafted a running back (fourth round).
Kenneth Walker, Brian Robinson and Isiah Pacheco are also in the final years of their rookie contracts, with their teams adding seventh-round backs in this year’s draft.
Breece Hall and James Cook (potential holdouts for new contracts) are also in the last years of their rookie contracts. But neither team added a rookie back (but they did draft notable rookie running backs in 2024).

Notable running back free agents at the end of the 2025 season include:

Kyren Williams (new contract pending), Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler, Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, Rico Dowdle, J.K. Dobbins, Nick Chubb, Elijah Mitchell, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, James Cook, Miles Sanders, Rachaad White, Brian Robinson Jr., Tyler Allgeier and Isiah Pacheco.

Target running backs on quality offenses (cumulative offensive ADP deemed above average).

Let’s run through some of my favorite 2025 fantasy football draft values from the top NFL offenses determined by ADP. pic.twitter.com/b0x4iClBU7

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 3, 2025

Aim for running backs on teams with no clear-cut starter — aka ambiguous backfields. This is where breakout running backs are often found.

Other major hitters were running backs who boasted pass-catching chops.

Volume is and remains king. When in doubt, draft the back who has a proven track record.

Bet on explosive backs who can make plays as receivers.

Bet against running backs on offenses that have not yet proven to be above average, while treading lightly on running backs that don’t have a lot of job security.

With running backs, ask yourself: What would it take for “X” to lose the starting job?

Seriously. Do it.

Fade expensive early-season opportunities in favor of late-season production when the weeks and points become more critical in specific formats. You need to strike a balance between early and late-season production. Drafting the upside rookie early is fine as long as you draft the dusty old veterans later on to backfill the weeks while the rookies get ramped up.

Hitting on the right running back late can be the true difference-maker.

And this year, I want to be clear. This rookie running back class is going to make noise. So please keep in mind that my RB Dead Zone analysis is not suggesting to fade the rookies. They are the types of players that emerge from the dead zone. I have my favorite rookie favorites and ones I won’t be as high on compared to cost, but I think you’ll net positively having more exposure to this rookie class than less.

Build your team responsibly. Don’t draft a rookie highly in the middle rounds expecting them to match production right away with veterans in the same range. Not realistic. Just acknowledge that you likely need to backfill that lack of production through other means, such as late-round veteran running backs. Perhaps even discounted backfield teammates of highly coveted rookies.

The Onesie Positions

I discussed ad nauseam the advantage you can acquire by drafting an elite tight end or quarterback in the early portions of your draft. But chances are you aren’t doing both. Savvy drafters won’t let the elite onesie positions go by too frequently. There’s a chance you might need to address the position as the middle rounds kick off.

But you need to be disciplined with your approach by waiting until the late middle rounds unless you believe the quarterback can make the jump into the elite tier.

Also, drafting a quarterback that just meets expectations in the middle rounds isn’t necessarily a bad thing (locked-in starter with job security, etc.). It’s more palatable to draft these quarterbacks in best ball compared to season-long leagues, where you have access to a massive late-round pool through waivers. The late-round quarterbacks in redraft go a tad bit earlier in best ball (rightfully so), so you need to alter your perception a bit of the middle tier of quarterbacks.

Within best ball, the last thing you want to do is to completely punt the quarterback position entirely until the late rounds. That’s a no-go.

After all, they score the most points (particularly in half-PPR), so you will want to have at least one elite potential option and one that has a high chance of being a back-end QB1 or top-15 option. Waiting and relying too heavily on late-round quarterbacks that turn into duds kills advance rates. Remember, best ball isn’t the same as redraft. Therefore, no waiver wire makes the late-round quarterback approach completely different.

Draft one quarterback as early as rounds four, five or six, and at least one more no later than rounds 11 or 12. This does leak over into the late rounds, so just be aware of that.

The earlier you draft your QB1, the later you can draft your QB2 (stacking withstanding).

Other things to look for when scoping out the QB position…

Among the top-10 quarterbacks in total points scored in 2022, eight rushed for at least 250 yards. In 2023, six of the top eight rushed for at least 240 yards. In 2024, 10 of the 13 highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks rushed for at least 300 yards while attempting 500+ passes.

Call it the 50-30 rule. Can quarterback “X” throw 500+ times and/or rush for 300 yards? Those are your top targets.

The quarterbacks that accomplished this feat in 2024 were Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray. Drake Maye likely would have hit it as well had he played a full allotment of games.

Per Mike Clay’s 2025 fantasy football projections, quarterbacks with at least 520 projected pass attempts and 250+ projected rushing yards are Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, Bryce Young, Geno Smith and Cam Ward.

The tight end position is a different beast altogether, despite being the other “onesie” position. I consistently preach that you want to stay out of the middle at tight end (even more so than when drafting quarterbacks).

The only two exceptions would be if a tight end I view in a higher tier falls into the middle rounds (happened in past years but not really applicable to this season with a clear top three), or for stacking purposes. But even when it comes to stacking, I am not aggressively stacking middle-round tight ends and would hope they fall past their ADP before selecting them. Don’t feel bad if you miss out on them, but be open to taking them if they become obvious value-stacking assets.