Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., took a step back in 2022, which was expected once he got out of the bandbox parks of Dunedin and Buffalo. He continued to smash the ball, sitting in the 90th percentile in avgEV, MaxEV, and HardHit%. It is somewhat concerning that his K% went up while his BB% went down, but the slight drop in counting stats is projected to normalize back to his 35/100/100 levels. While the fifth-year player probably isn't going to gift fantasy managers with double-digit steals, Guerrero can keep four categories and all ratios afloat, allowing you to build around that foundation. Be prepared to grab him on the turn at the end of Round 1.

After a volatile offseason that saw him sign with the Dodgers, Freddie Freeman settled in and got to work being the hitting machine fantasy managers have come to know and love. While his HR total dropped to 21, his runs (117), RBI (100), and SB (13) kept him in the fantasy MVP conversation. What we really love, though, are his ratios. He may not duplicate his .325/.407/.511 line again, his three-year average of .312/.415/.563 says that range is possible with his elite skills. Ranking in the 90th percentile in K%, BB%, and xwOBA is all you need to know to feel confident in grabbing the 33-year-old in the second round.

The Polar Bear was dethroned at the 2022 HR Derby but otherwise had a phenomenal campaign, hitting 40 HR with 131 RBI, 95 runs, and lowering his K% to a career-low 18.7. He had an impressive xwOBA of .354, an ISO of .246, and WRC+ of 143 while batting cleanup in New York. Projections for the 28-year-old look similar to this stat line, though he will have a boosted lineup ahead of him to knock in with the re-signing of Brandon Nimmo, return of Francisco Lindor, and anyone else Steve Cohen decides to add to his luxury tax mountain. The beauty of Alonso is that he has all of the power without cratering your batting average (.271 last season). He remains worthy of a second-round pick in 2023.

Paul Goldschmidt won the NL MVP in 2022, putting together a strong campaign that saw him hit 35 HR with 115 RBI and 105 runs while slashing .317/.404/.578 in his age-34 season. Strangely, all of his underlying metrics were actually worse in 2022 than in 2021 with the exception of his BB% bouncing from 9.9 to 12.1. One striking reason for this was a .368 BABIP, while another was facing a lot of atrocious pitching in the NL Central. His Statcast page reads like a warning when comparing his expected numbers with his actual ones. All of this adds up to that Goldy is due for some regression in 2023, which could be dramatic. The positives are his solid floor, and a good surrounding lineup will keep the numbers afloat. Just make sure you're not paying for his MVP iteration on draft day.

After signing an 8-year, $168 million contract with the Atlanta Braves, Matt Olson did his best to replace franchise icon Freddie Freeman in one of the weirder series of transactions in recent memory. The 28-year-old's numbers were lower than what fantasy managers had come to expect, losing 31 points off his batting average and dropping his OBP from .371 to .325. His K% jumped precipitously (16.8 to 24.3), while his walk rate went the other direction (13.1 to 10.7). The good news is that his expected numbers were all higher than the actuals, and he still hit 34 homers with 86 runs and 103 RBI. Olson played in all 162 games last season, continuing his career of solid durability, so fantasy managers can draft him with the expectation that his numbers will normalize in his second year in Atlanta with a good lineup around him.

Jose Abreu signed a 3-year, $58.5 million with the Astros to serve as their first baseman. Entering his age-36 season, Abreu's Statcast page suggests that he is still a solid hitter, though there was a significant decrease in home runs, dropping from 30 to 15. So now the primary question is how much is his age impacting his power. His counting stats should get a boost, batting in one of the best lineups in baseball, and if his home runs correct at all, he will serve as a nice corner infield piece on fantasy squads.

Vinnie Pasquantino can hit. This wasn't really in question before his arrival in the big leagues last summer, but he slashed .295/.383/.450 in 72 games for the Royals when he finally got the call-up. His BB% was actually higher than his K%, though there is a good chance this won't hold in 2023. However, his xwOBA was .374, so you can believe in those on-base skills going forward. With a current ADP of 93, the 25-year-old should produce good value for fantasy managers who focus on position scarcity in the early rounds.

Nathaniel Lowe became something of an on-base machine in 2022. The 27-year-old slashed .302/.358/.492 with 27 HR, 76 RBI, and 74 runs scored in 157 games. That put him in the Top 10 first basemen at the end of the year and those who rode out his atrocious stretch at the beginning of the year were definitely rewarded. His .363 BABIP is due to regress so draft him with the knowledge that his batting average may drop 15-20 points. Short of that, though, he is a solid choice in the ninth round, particularly in OBP leagues.

Rhys Hoskins lost 67 points off his ISO but hit three more home runs than he did in 2021. His strikeout rate remains quite high, and he won't bat for much average, but the addition of Trea Turner should boost his counting stats high enough for fantasy managers not to care much. He finished as 1B15 last year, but there is a good chance he could move up the chart with his impending free agency looming. Hoskins makes for a nice CI option.

C.J. Cron hit 22 home runs with a .302 average and .400 wOBA when he played at Coors Field in 2022. Away from Denver, the 33-year-old hit seven homers with a .214 average and .274 wOBA. If your league is deep enough to stream a 1B based on home/away location, then Cron is a perfectly fine option. For those in shallower leagues, 81 games of production aren't quite as enticing.

Christian Walker was ridiculously underrated/ignored in 2022 given the fantasy production he was putting out. The 31-year-old turned his Statcast page crimson, landing in the 92nd percentile in xSLG and xwOBA, two important categories to show out in. Walker raised his HR total from 10 to 36 and ended his 160-game campaign with 94 RBI and 84 runs scored. An improved offense around him should only boost his numbers in 2023.

Ryan Mountcastle is an underrated power hitter who fell prey to a narrative that isn't exactly true. Yes, they moved the fences back at Camden Yards, but he actually improved his EV and added length to his average fly ball distance. The 13.3% HR/FB ratio should correct, and if he maintains an improved K% and HardHit%, he will be an absolute steal at his current ADP.

The biggest plus Andrew Vaughn has going this season is that Tony La Russa won't be there to block his playing time. He should also get to move back to the infield and play 1B now that Jose Abreu is in Houston. Vaughn has underestimated power and maintains a good batting average. With everyday playing time, 2023 could be a big year of growth for the 24-year-old.

 

 

 

Assuming Ty France no longer qualifies at 2B, the complexion of his fantasy value changes. However, he does qualify at 3B, which might be even shallower this season. The 28-year-old is this year's definition of "boring" - he's projected for 20 HR, 70/70 for runs/RBI, and a solid batting average. There is nothing wrong with boring, as long as you don't reach for it.

Jose Miranda should finally take his rightful spot as the Twins' everyday third baseman - not because he's a great defensive third baseman (he's not) but because they need his bat in the lineup. In his rookie season, he hit 15 HR and 66 RBI with a .751 OPS and had above-average slugging numbers and K%. Miranda is right on the edge of being a sleeper if he's able to build on last year, but he also runs the risk of some growing pains in his sophomore season.