Fantasy Football Player Notes
2022 Half PPR Draft Rankings
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1.
Jonathan Taylor
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
After playing just a 70% snap share once in 2020, Jonathan Taylor surpassed that number in nine contests in 2021, including eight weeks during the team's last eight games. Taylor also led the NFL in red-zone touches (92), which was not that surprising considering he ranked fifth in that category as a rookie.
That elite goal-line usage helped separate Taylor from the pack as the bonafide No. 1 running back in fantasy football. No player came close to sniffing his amount of volume near paydirt. Taylor's 42 carries inside the 10-yard line were 12 more than the next-closest back (Damien Harris, 30). Pairing Taylor's elite red-zone usage with his ascending role as a receiver - 11th in routes run and sixth in route participation in 2021 - makes him worthy of the 1.01 pick across all fantasy formats. No quarterback targeted running backs more than new Colts quarterback Matt Ryan did in 2021 - 8.6 targets per game. |
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2.
Christian McCaffrey
RB - CAR (at NO)
The injury concerns for Christian McCaffrey are justified. Since 2020 he's dealt with an ankle sprain, thigh injury, AC joint sprain, and high ankle sprain, missing 18 games. When he's on the field, though, he's still a top-three running back. Last season in the five games he played at least 48% of the snaps, he averaged 20.1 (0.5 PPR) fantasy points per game. This would have placed him as the RB3 in weekly fantasy scoring behind only Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry.
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3.
Austin Ekeler
RB - LAC (at DEN)
Austin Ekeler isn't used as a true three-down workhorse, but it's hard to tell based on the actual amount of touches he sees in the Los Angeles Chargers offense. At 5-foot-10 and 200 pounds, Ekeler finished 8th in the NFL in total touches (276) and 14th in touches per game (17.2).
But the raw touches hardly showcase the fantasy value Ekeler possesses, because he often commands an extremely high-share of high-value targets ie. targets and red-zone opportunities. His 13.9% target share and 70 receptions ranked second behind only Najee Harris. Ekeler's 18 red-zone touchdowns and 63 red-zone touches ranked first and second respectively. With such a secure role as a receiver out of the backfield and as a featured red-zone weapon in a high-powered offense, it's hard to imagine a healthy Ekeler not returning at least top-5 fantasy status in 2022. He wrapped a bow on the 2021 season as the RB3 in points per game and RB2 overall in half-point scoring. |
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4.
Justin Jefferson
WR - MIN (at CHI)
Justin Jefferson has been a yearly stud in fantasy football. Last year he was third in target share (29.2%) and first in air yard share (45.7%) among wide receivers as the WR4 in fantasy points per game. With Adam Thielen another year older and the Vikings failing to add another pass catcher in the offseason, Jefferson should further assert his dominance in 2022.
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5.
Dalvin Cook
RB - MIN (at CHI)
The injury bug has lightly nipped at Dalvin Cook in each of the last three seasons. Over that span, he's gutted out it, though, and only missed four games while dealing with a torn labrum, dislocated shoulder, groin strain, and left shoulder sprain. Despite the injury history, Cook will "shoulder" the load for the Vikings again in 2022. When he was on the field last year, he averaged 21.8 touches and 106.4 total yards per game as the RB11 in weekly fantasy scoring. He's still a top 5-10 option and 20 touches per game machine this year.
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6.
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN (at JAC)
Those that faded Derrick Henry as a first-round pick in 2021 received suboptimal results. The Tennessee Titans running back led the position in fantasy PPR points per game (23.4) through eight weeks and bested his 2020 2,000-yard campaign by more than 2.5 PPR points per game.
The unicorn running back averaged 29.6 touches per game - seven more than the next closest running back before his injury. And although he didn't play again until the postseason, Henry still finished 15th in the NFL in total touches and as the RB20 overall in just eight games played. No running back better depicts the "volume is king" mantra better than the King himself and his guaranteed volume make him near bulletproof. Coming off an injury-plagued season does raise some concerns about whether Henry's body is going to break down because of his insane workload. And the lack of pass-game usage is a detriment to his value in PPR formats. But it's impossible to ignore his workload opportunity in 2022 within a Titans anemic passing offense. They don't have any reason to not feature him and there are no indications that they are going to stop with him due $15M this season. Seems more likely than not they ride Henry did his contract expires before the 2024 season when he hits age 30. |
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7.
Cooper Kupp
WR - LAR (at SEA)
Cooper Kupp broke fantasy football last season. He led all wide receivers in target share, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He was also fourth at the position in weighted opportunity. Kupp averaged the most fantasy points per game (21.6, 0.5 PPR) of any wide receiver since 2012.
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8.
Joe Mixon
RB - CIN (vs . BAL)
Joe Mixon was an absolute steal in the second round of fantasy drafts in 2021 based on his easily projected large workload within an ascending offense. The Bengals running back finished the season third in total touches (334) and sixth in touches per game (20.9).
Mixon also ranked third in goal-line carries (16) and tied Jonathan Taylor/James Conner in red-zone touchdowns. 2021 was the perfect storm for the fantasy RB3 in half-points scoring coming off a truncated 2020 campaign, and there's reason to believe the positive production will continue in 2022. The Bengals offensive line has been revamped entirely, ensuring that Mixon will be able to repeat his top-10 PFF rushing grade from a season ago. He also flashed upside a receiver down the playoff stretch for the Bengals, averaging nearly six targets per game while running a route on 57% of offensive dropbacks through six games. That route participation would have ranked third among all running backs during the regular season. Mixon fits all the criteria that a fantasy manager would want as a mid-range first round selection in fantasy football. However, he owns the RB7 ADP at 12th overall in early best ball drafts. |
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9.
Ja'Marr Chase
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
Ja'Marr Chase broke Justin Jefferson's record for most receiving yards by a rookie, finishing 2021 as the WR5 in fantasy points per game and the WR22 in expected fantasy points per game. Only Deebo Samuel scored more fantasy points above expectation (+74.3) than Chase - a testament to his home-run hitting ability. Chase's 18.0 yards per reception ranked second-best in the NFL behind only Samuel.
The Bengals wide receivers' dominance continued in the postseason with back-to-back 100-yard games in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Chase commanded a 27% target share when it mattered most during postseason play, a 5% increase from his regular season target share. |
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10.
Najee Harris
RB - PIT (vs . CLE)
If there is any running back that could potentially de-throne Derrick Henry as the poster child for the "volume is king" mantra, it's Najee Harris. The Steelers rookie running back managed a league-leading 381 touches in 2021, and finished as the RB4 in half-point scoring as a result.
The volume he is going to see in 2022 will ensure he is one of the safest running backs available in fantasy football. Still, the issue with Harris pertains to his true upside potential in an potentially capped offense led by a rookie quarterback. An immobile Ben Roethlisberger was a check-down target machine to Harris in 2021 which may not be the case in 2022. And despite all of his total raw touches, Harris only saw 37 touches (22nd) in the red zone and scored six red-zone touchdowns. |
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11.
Stefon Diggs
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
2021 was a somewhat odd season for Stefon Diggs as his fantasy production took a step back from his first season in Buffalo. His 29% target share fell to 24% as did his yards per route run (2.5 versus 1.8). This resulted in Diggs finishing with just two games with at least 90 receiving yards, a dramatic decrease from his ten 90-plus yard outings during the 2020 regular season.
He finished as a top-15 WR just once through the first nine weeks of the season but improved down the stretch as Buffalo's offense hit its stride. He had three top-10 finishes as the WR8 in fantasy points per game in half-point scoring (14.8). Still, top-5 upside still exists with Diggs in this explosive Bills offense even if his target share holds at 24% in 2022. Because his command of high-value targets in the Buffalo offense was unmatched by almost every other WR in the NFL. He was one of just two WRs to hit over 2,000 air yards (Justin Jefferson). Diggs also commanded the most end-zone targets in the NFL (25) during the regular season - six more than the next closest receiver (Justin Jefferson). |
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12.
D'Andre Swift
RB - DET (at GB)
In Weeks 1-11, before suffering an AC joint sprain that kiboshed his season, D'Andre Swift was a fantasy monster. He was the RB7, averaging 19 touches and 97.5 total yards per game. While the Lions have added more passing game weapons in the offseason with D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams, Swift's efficiency through the air allows for hope that his target share (18.4%, second among running backs) won't see a drastic dip. In Weeks 1-11, he was ninth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets, per PFF) among running backs.
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13.
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO (vs . CAR)
Last year Alvin Kamara showed no signs of slowing down, logging his first 200-plus carry season. In the six full games with Jameis Winston under center, he was the RB5 in fantasy, averaging 23.2 touches and 5.5 targets (26.4% target share). Over that span, he was seventh in targets and sixth in receiving yards among all running backs.
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14.
Travis Kelce
TE - KC (at LV)
After finishing as the fantasy TE1 for three straight seasons, Travis Kelce was finally de-throned by Mark Andrews in 2021. The Kansas City Chiefs tight end posted his worst points per game average (16.6) dating back to 2017 while also posting a career-low in yards per route run (1.84) and PFF grade (81.8).
It seems logical that Kelce's reign as the perennial consensus TE1 has come to a conclusion as he enters his age-33 season in 2022. However, it's impossible to ignore the high-end target share that Kelce will command in the Chiefs offense after they traded Tyreek Hill. His 20% target share ranked second-best at the position in 2021. Although it was a slight fall-off from his 23% average target share from 2019 and 2020. |
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15.
Davante Adams
WR - LV (vs . KC)
A healthy Davante Adams has finished no worse than WR5 attached to Aaron Rodgers since 2018, and he ended 2021 third in fantasy points per game at age 29.
Adams' high level of play won't stop in Las Vegas, but his fantasy stock does get slightly dented going from Rodgers to Derek Carr. It's unlikely that Carr hyper-targets Adams to the length of a 28% target share as Rodgers has done for so many seasons. Incumbent Raiders pass-catchers Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow represent more target competition than Adams has ever played with since becoming the alpha in Green Bay. |
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16.
Saquon Barkley
RB - NYG (at PHI)
Last season was nightmare fuel for Saquon Barkley. In his return from the ACL injury, he posted his career's lowest breakaway run rate (3.1%, per Playerprofiler.com) and yards after contact per attempt (2.69, per PFF). With Joe Judge and Jason Garrett's special brand of season-destroying special sauce gone, Barkley has all the motivation to crush this year as a pending free agent. With the additions of Jon Feliciano, Mark Glowinski, and first-round pick Evan Neal to pair with holdover Andrew Thomas, the blocking upfront should be much improved. A massive bounce-back campaign could be brewing.
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17.
Aaron Jones
RB - GB (vs . DET)
Aaron Jones finished last season as the RB11 in fantasy points per game despite ceding more work to A.J. Dillon as the year moved along. In Weeks 14-17, Jones saw 38 carries, three red zone opportunities, and ran 76 routes. In that same sample of games, Dillon gobbled up 45 carries with 13 red zone looks and 54 routes run. With Davante Adams gone, Jones could save his fantasy scoring with a heavier target load. Since 2019 in the seven games Jones has played without Adams on the field, he's seen his targets bump from 3.9 per game to 6.7. His receiving yardage also increased from 21.6 to 55.4 per game. While he might not have top 3-5 upside anymore if Dillon remains involved, Jones could still be a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2.
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18.
CeeDee Lamb
WR - DAL (at WAS)
The engines are ready for ignition. CeeDee Lamb's rocket ship to the moon is prepped for launch. Last season Lamb was 13th in yards per route run in the regular season (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while excelling as a bully after the catch. He was fifth in missed tackles forced among wide receivers. With Amari Cooper gone and Michael Gallup likely to start the season limited, Lamb can take another step forward as an ascending alpha wide receiver.
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19.
Mark Andrews
TE - BAL (at CIN)
Last year, Mark Andrews was the early-round tight end who drove rosters to fantasy championships. The Baltimore Ravens fourth-year TE led the position with a 25% target share, 28% air yards share and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He ran a route on 84% of offensive dropbacks, which also ranked first.
With Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has solidified himself as clear TE1 with a still unproven second-year wideout as his main competition for targets. However, be aware that even if Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1 it may not be to the extent that it was in 2021. His 623 routes run were 209 more than he had in 2020 and fueled the career-year. Andrews' increase in route running was tied to the Ravens boosted pass-play rate (56%). From 2019-2020, Baltimore passed on fewer than 46% of their plays. Because Baltimore's increase in passing was due out of necessity in 2021, I'd project it to regress closer to the 2019-2020 rate for this upcoming season. |
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20.
Leonard Fournette
RB - TB (at ATL)
Workhorse Uncle Lenn is back to trigger the haters in 2022. In Weeks 4-14, Leonard Fournette played less than 61% of the team's snaps in only two games. Over that stretch, he averaged 19.7 touches and 103 total yards per game as the RB5 in fantasy. Fournette was also fantastic in the passing game. In that sample, he led all running backs in targets (63) and was fourth in receiving yards (344). Rachaad White might be his heir apparent, but Tampa Bay has Super Bowl aspirations, and it's difficult to envision Tom Brady trusting a rookie in the backfield to protect him.
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21.
Javonte Williams
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
Running back Melvin Gordon signed a one-year deal with the Denver Broncos, ultimately halting the Javonte Williams 2022 breakout season. The idea of Williams playing a three-down role was salivating, but Gordon's return should not be overlooked after a seriously underrated 2021 campaign.
MG3's return definitely hurts Williams' top-tier fantasy ceiling. He's going to split work with another capable back in Gordon which is exactly what new head coach Nathaniel Hackett desires and spoke on at the NFL owners meeting in March. However, keep in mind that Williams finished 13th in touches last season (246, 14.6 per game) and would be the favorite to take another step forward in the passing game - Aaron Jones-esque - after finishing as one of two rookie RBs inside the top-15 in route participation in 2021: Najee Harris (first) and Javonte Williams (13th). Williams falls just out of the fantasy RB1 conversation for me in redraft and best ball, but he's right on the cusp. I don't think he can be ranked worse than RB15 considering that's where he finished as a rookie amid a split workload in a much worse offensive environment. |
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22.
Nick Chubb
RB - CLE (at PIT)
As an elite rusher, Nick Chubb has finished as a top ten running back in weekly scoring in each of the last three seasons. While a passing game role is a wish that will likely never come true (1.8 targets per game, 2021), Chubb doesn't need it to remain a locked-in top 12-15 fantasy back. His prowess on early downs makes up for the lack of targets. Last year he ranked third in evaded tackles, sixth in breakaway run rate, and fourth in yards per touch last season. As soon as Deshaun Watson is under center, Chubb should see a bump in scoring opportunities. Last season Cleveland ranked 23rd in red-zone scoring attempts per game.
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23.
Deebo Samuel
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
Before excelling in the "wide back" role for the 49ers, Deebo Samuel was already an elite option at wide receiver for fantasy football. Last year in Weeks 1-9, he was the WR2 in fantasy points per game behind only Cooper Kupp. Over that stretch, Samuel was leading all wide receivers in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets, per PFF). He averaged an insane 10.1 targets, 6.1 receptions, and 110.3 receiving yards per game, so "wide back" or no "wide back" matters very little.
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24.
Mike Evans
WR - TB (at ATL)
Mike Evans' consistency in fantasy football is astounding. Over the last eight seasons, he's hit 1,000 or more every year. He's finished as a top 20 wide receiver in weekly fantasy scoring in every season but one. Last season he ranked 11th in red-zone targets and second in total touchdowns at the receiver position. With Tom Brady back in the fold, Evans is a locked-in top 12 option at the receiver position.
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25.
Tyreek Hill
WR - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. The 'Cheetah' wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2).
It's worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill's aDOT also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest it's been since his rookie season. And It's undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it's hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-5 season with a lesser passer. Especially with Tagovailoa's lack of a confident deep ball, a prominent running game, and Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently. |
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26.
A.J. Brown
WR - PHI (vs . NYG)
If you're concerned about A.J. Brown's move to Philadelphia, don't be. Brown is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, and talent plays regardless of area code or jersey. Brown was the fourth-highest graded wide receiver per PFF last season and fifth in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). Before switching to a run-first approach, the Eagles were sixth in neutral passing rate (Weeks 1-6) last season. We could see Philly go back to this pass-heavy offensive approach to see if Jalen Hurts truly is the guy. This means the target volume for Brown could surpass expectations.
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27.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
Pittman got the true WR1 treatment from the Colts coaching staff in 2021, running a route on 96% of offensive dropbacks - third to only Cooper Kupp (WR1) and Ja'Marr Chase (WR4) through 17 weeks. He also finished the season tied for the league's eighth-highest target share (24%), which was 11 percentage points higher than the next closest Colt, Zach Pascal, at 13%.
He also made 18 highlight-reel contested catches - fourth most in the NFL. And his 31% target share from Weeks 13-18 cemented his place in Indy's WR1 chair heading into 2022. With Matt Ryan under center Pittman has the volume potential to be a top-12 fantasy option. Ryan has a history of fueling top-end fantasy WRs like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, making a top-five finish not all that crazy for Big Mike in 2022. Don't forget that last season, Ridley as the Falcons' No. 1 receiver owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5). |
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28.
Tee Higgins
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
Tee Higgins' 23% target rate per route run was higher than Ja'Marr Chase's 21% during the 2021 regular season as was his 25% target share in the games they played together when healthy.
There's no denying that WR1 overall upside exists with Chase in 2022, but Higgins' constant command of targets in a loaded Cincinnati offense will make him a screaming value in 2022 fantasy drafts. |
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29.
James Conner
RB - ARI (at SF)
James Conner will be the Cardinal's dependable workhorse again in 2022. In Weeks 9-14, he never played less than 77% of the snaps averaging 21.8 touches and 114.4 total yards per game. He was the RB2 in fantasy behind only Jonathan Taylor in that five-game span. His 18 total touchdowns seem hard to replicate at first glance, but it isn't. Last season Arizona was eighth in red zone rushing rate.
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30.
Keenan Allen
WR - LAC (at DEN)
The 2021 season represented the latest installment of Keenan Allen just being straight a baller and one of the most perennially underrated wide receivers in the NFL. He caught 100-plus passes for the fifth straight season and finished as the WR14 overall and in fantasy points per game (12.8).
The Chargers slot receiver remained Justin Herbert's go-to option as his 17th-ranked 22% target share led the Chargers. But it's worth noting that Mike Williams out-scored Allen in half-point scoring in the season's totality, and that Allen posted his lowest yards per route run (1.78) since 2014. |
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31.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB - DAL (at WAS)
Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a down season where some of this could be related to the fact he dealt with a partially torn PCL for much of the season (since Week 4). The spliced-up workload and his declining effectiveness could result from the injury or his advancing age and the toll that the NFL has taken on him. Elliott has amassed 1,938 touches (22 per game) over his six-year career, never handling less than 268 touches in any season. Elliott should be viewed as an RB2 in many formats that could slowly dissolve into a high-end RB3 if Tony Pollard gets more run in 2022.
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32.
Kyle Pitts
TE - ATL (vs . TB)
Kyle Pitts lived up to all of the hype last season. Pitts ranked third in receiving yards and eighth in receptions among all tight ends. In deeper metrics, he was elite, ranking fourth in targets per snap and yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Since 2018 the only rookie tight end to finish their inaugural season with a higher yards per route run has been Albert Okwuegbunam (minimum 15 targets, per PFF). Pitts finished as the TE11 in fantasy points per game as the eyesore of only one receiving touchdown drug down his fantasy value. Pitts has TE1 overall upside if the touchdowns bounce back in a big way in 2022.
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33.
DJ Moore
WR - CAR (at NO)
Despite a smattering of atrocious quarterback play on his plate, D.J. Moore has been a model of consistent fantasy production. In fantasy, Moore has hit at least 1,157 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons as the WR14, WR23, and WR28. Moore has remained an efficient player despite his signal-caller quality, ranking 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF) and 16th in receiving yards per game. The issue capping his ceiling has been touchdowns, but unless he gets more usage near pay dirt in 2022, he's no more than a mid-WR2. Since 2019 Moore has ranked 29th, 60th, and 25th in red-zone targets.
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34.
Josh Allen
QB - BUF (vs . NE)
The back-to-back reigning fantasy QB1 showed no signs of slowing down in 2021. Allen led the quarterback position averaging 24.6 fantasy points per game and a whopping 26.7 expected fantasy points - nearly three points more than the next closest signal-caller. The Bills quarterback's dual-threat ability - third in rushing yards (763) and rushing attempts (122) - provides him a fantasy ceiling that only a few other quarterbacks can match. No quarterback had more top-3 finishes or top-8 weekly finishes than Allen did a season ago
That's why he's deserving of being the first quarterback drafted across all formats. Because even after taking a slight step back as a passer in 2021 - 104.9 passer rating vs. 97.9 passer rating - a higher passing touchdown ceiling exists for Allen in 2022. His 5.6% TD rate was worse than in 2020 and ranked just ninth in 2021. Case in point: despite finishing No. 1 overall, Allen ended with the 5th-most fantasy points under expectation. |
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35.
Travis Etienne Jr.
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
Travis Etienne Jr. was a standout college football running back for the Clemson Tigers from 2017 to 2020 and was selected by the Jaguars in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft -25th overall. However, his rookie season was cut short by a preseason Lisfranc injury. Some NFL personnel reported that Etienne could have come back towards the end of the year had the Jaguars been in playoff contention instead of being the league's laughing stock.
Etienne is expected to be fully cleared by training camp, giving him a leg up on the RB1 role as the Jacksonville Jaguars install a new offense under new head coach Doug Pederson. With James Robinson attempting to come back from a torn Achilles injury suffered on December 26th, Etienne figures to be the featured back during this spring/summer. Do not forget what this guy did at Clemson with Trevor Lawrence (QB - JAC) as his quarterback. During his final season as a Clemson Tiger, he led the country in receiving yards and ranked second in receptions among running backs. Etienne also racked up the most rushing attempts of 20-plus yards (40) from 2018 to 2019 while only carrying the ball 20-plus times once since 2018. |
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36.
Courtland Sutton
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
Entering Year 3, it looked like Courtland Sutton was on the cusp of true elite fantasy WR1 production, but his 2020 season was lost due to a torn ACL in Week 2. It was unclear how productive Sutton would be returning from the devastating knee injury.
But to start the 2021 season, the Broncos wide receiver looked like his old self. He averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game (17th) and had a 27% target share in Weeks 2-7 during the regular season. It wasn't until Jerry Jeudy's return from injury that Sutton - and the rest of the Broncos pass catchers - became obsolete in a crowded, run-heavy offense led by a combination of Lock/Teddy Bridgewater. Nevertheless, Sutton finished the season as the fantasy WR46. However, even in the anemic offense, Sutton still finished seventh in air yards (1,756), cemented in between Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, in 2021. Sutton has a real chance to recapture his elite form another year removed from his ACL injury. It also helps substantially that he has received an ultra upgrade at the quarterback position with Denver's trade for Russell Wilson. Wilson has always been an elite downfield passer - he had the sixth-highest passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season - which plays heavily into Sutton's strengths as a vertical threat. |
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37.
Mike Williams
WR - LAC (at DEN)
Mike Williams had the opportunity to take his talents elsewhere this offseason in free agency, but decided to stay in Los Angeles with quarterback Justin Herbert. Hard to argue with the choice to sign a three-year deal worth $60M attached to a young superstar quarterback, especially when that quarterback fueled a career-year.
He stormed out the gate in 2021 as the WR2 in fantasy through the first five weeks of the season, averaging 94.2 receiving yards and 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game. Big Mike finished the season as the WR23 in fantasy points per game despite cooling off considerably in the later weeks in addition to leaving a boatload of touchdown production on the table. He finished sixth in end-zone targets (16) but caught only five for touchdowns. With positive TD regression on his side, Williams looks like a sneaky candidate to repeat his WR12 overall finish in the half-point scoring format. |
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38.
David Montgomery
RB - CHI (vs . MIN)
David Montgomery finished as the RB12 and RB6 in fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons, surpassing expectations. The Bears' receiving weapons are depleted outside of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, so there's an easy pathway for plenty of check downs weekly. With Fields under center, he saw 4.75 targets per game, which would be a new career-high if that repeats this upcoming season. The problem for Montgomery is the new regime has no previous ties to him. He's seen an 80-90% opportunity share over the last two seasons, which has helped fuel his fantasy stock. Still, new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy comes from a system in Green Bay that hasn't pushed Aaron Jones over the 60% opportunity share mark since 2020. It's conceivable Montgomery will lose snaps on early downs to Khalil Herbert or Darrynton Evans and routes to Trestan Ebner. If that comes to fruition, he's better viewed as a high-end RB3 with low-end RB2 upside.
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39.
Terry McLaurin
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
Terry McLaurin has dealt with a history of sprains, strains, and putrid quarterback play that have limited our view of his true ceiling potential. Since 2019 McLaurin has endured two hamstring strains and two high ankle sprains that have only cost him three games but have drastically hindered his effectiveness at points. Since 2019 he's suffered catchable target rates that have ranked 70th, 77th, and 41st in the NFL. Carson Wentz might not be amazing, but if he continues the deep ball prowess that he flashed last season, McLaurin could offer fantasy managers high-end WR2 production. In 2021 Wentz was fourth in deep-ball accuracy, which pairs well with McLaurin, who was second in deep-ball targets last year.
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40.
Justin Herbert
QB - LAC (at DEN)
Justin Herbert finished third in touchdowns and fifth in PFF passing grade (91.8) from a clean pocket in 2021. The Bolts quarterback also wrapped up the season as PFF's third-highest-graded quarterback overall, third in fantasy points per game (22.7) and fifth in expected fantasy points per game (21.7)
The Los Angeles Chargers signal-caller is a certified stud - a top-five, elite-tier fantasy quarterback in 2022. Only Tom Brady and Josh Allen posted as many top-5 weeks as Herbert did last season. He and Brady led the NFL with nine 300-yard passing games. Since entering the NFL in 2020, Herbert has thrown for 300-plus yards in 53% of his games played. Even if his rushing doesn't stack up with the league's elite, Herbert's cannon provides almost everything he needs to close the gap. |
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41.
Breece Hall
RB - NYJ (at MIA)
My highest-ranked rookie running back is Breece Hall. The Jets selected the Iowa State product at the top of Round 2, signifying his status as the team's locked-in RB1 for the foreseeable future. Hall's three-down skill set suggests he never has to come off the field, and the sheer volume he garners will vault him into redraft top-20 running back territory.
The Iowa State product totaled over 4,500 yards from scrimmage, 50 touchdowns and 80 catches over three seasons in the college ranks. A workload of approximately 240 touches - based on ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay's projections and how many touches the cumulative Jets RB1 earned last season - would place Hall inside the top-15 considering every running back last season that hit that threshold finished inside that ranking. 2021 fourth-rounder Michael Carter had his moments as a rookie, but the Jets know he's just a No. 2 running back. Anticipate Hall to shoulder 15-20 touches per game based on the workload that Carter received last season when Tevin Coleman missed time. From Weeks 7-9 with Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. Upon Coleman's return from injury in Week 10, Carter averaged 14 touches per game and a 55% snap share in the games they played together. |
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42.
Diontae Johnson
WR - PIT (vs . CLE)
The ADP market believes that Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett can take the Steelers to the fantasy promised land. I am not as optimistic.
The best-case scenario for the Steelers' No. 1 wide receiver is seeing a boatload of targets - albeit inefficient like last season when he ranked second in that category - to deliver for fantasy. Whether it's Trubisky or the rookie under center, that is the reality with DJ. Let's not forget that last year's heavily-coveted rookie quarterback class produced almost zero reliable options outside of Brandin Cooks (WR20), Jakobi Meyers (WR33) and Kendrick Bourne (WR30). So with a top-15 early best ball ADP in an offense with more competition for targets between Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens and Calvin Austin III, I would need Johnson to fall significantly in drafts before selecting him. |
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43.
Jaylen Waddle
WR - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Jaylen Waddle looked primed to make the leap into the top-12 conversation after a stellar rookie season. Along with breaking Anquan Boldin's rookie reception record, Waddle commanded a 22% target share and 24% target rate per route run - 18th-best in the NFL.
But with the expensive addition of veteran Tyreek Hill, it is less likely that Waddle is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Miami. Hill is coming off a season where he commanded the league's seventh-highest target rate per route run (27%). The trade moves Waddle down from a fringe WR1 to mid-range fantasy WR2 after seeing almost zero target competition last season. |
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44.
AJ Dillon
RB - GB (vs . DET)
A.J. Dillon started to emerge from his protege's shadow with 187 rushing attempts, 803 rushing yards, and an RB29 fantasy points per game finish last year. Dillon isn't the home run threat that Jones is (43rd in breakaway run rate), but he can still punish an opposing defense. He was 17th in yards created per touch in 14th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 100 carries, per PFF), immediately behind Jones. Unless Jones succumbs to injury, Dillon is likely stuck in a 1B role with a healthy red-zone role.
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45.
Elijah Mitchell
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
Elijah Mitchell ran away with the job last season en route to finishing as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. He was third in opportunity share, but his underlying rushing metrics were a lackluster ball of meh. He was 36th in juke rate, 30th in breakaway run rate, and 34th in yards created per touch. With his 7.0% target share and 25th ranking in route participation, he doesn't have the pass game usage to save him if the rushing volume and efficiency aren't there. Even though Mitchell has been sidelined for much of camp with an injury, the 49ers have stated that once healthy, he's their lead back.
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46.
Cam Akers
RB - LAR (at SEA)
Cam Akers wasn't expected to return last year in time for the playoffs, but he pulled it off. He saw snap shares from 39% to as high as 81%. While he racked up volume in the process with 18.7 touches per game, his efficiency numbers were middling at best. His 2.31 yards after contact per attempt was a far cry from the 2.96 he rattled off in his rookie season (per PFF). With a full offseason to hopefully recoup any lost juice and return to his first-year form, Akers has the upside to be a workhorse in one of the best offenses in the NFL.
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47.
Brandin Cooks
WR - HOU (at IND)
Brandin Cooks has finished worse than the fantasy WR20 only once since 2015, and that was due to injury. He has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards six times with four different teams during that span.
At just 28 years old, Cooks shows little signs of slowing down. Last season, he was a target and air yards hog, finishing fourth in air yards share (36%) and ninth in target share (24%). And during the final four games of the season with Davis Mills at quarterback, Cooks was top-10 in fantasy points per game (15.0) to go along with a top-5 target rate per route run (33%). |
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48.
Allen Robinson II
WR - LAR (at SEA)
Allen Robinson slots in alongside Cooper Kupp as the Rams' number two receiving option after a down year with the Bears. In his final season in the Windy City, Robinson's yards per route dipped to a career-low of 1.13, which ranked 79th out of 90 qualifying wide receivers with 50 or more targets. If his efficiency bounces back to previous levels, Robinson is a WR3 with WR2 upside.
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49.
Patrick Mahomes II
QB - KC (at LV)
Despite the ups-and-downs of the KC Chiefs offense as a response to the Cover 2 defense, Patrick Mahomes was as a stellar as ever from a fantasy perspective. The former MVP ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0) tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2).
Additionally, the loss of Tyreek Hill cannot be ignored heading into 2022. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 - despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018. Mahomes can't totally be written off as a top-five fantasy option - .QB4 without Hill through the first five weeks of 2019 averaging 25 fantasy points per game - but there's real concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill. Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and career-high in interceptions (16). He's likely being overvalued as the QB2 in early best ball drafts on name recognition alone. |
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50.
Lamar Jackson
QB - BAL (at CIN)
Lamar Jackson had a season to forget in 2021, as he dealt with a plethora of injuries/illnesses and regressed immensely as a passer. Two key metrics at PFF that are important to analyze for QBs are performance in a clean pocket and throwing at the intermediate level.
Jackson ranked 28th in passer rating from a clean pocket (90.4) and 22nd in PFF passing grade at the intermediate level (70.0). Despite all his shortcomings as a passer, Jackson still finished the season second in expected fantasy points per game (23.8) and seventh in fantasy points per game (21.3). His expected fantasy point per game output marked the highest of his career thanks to the Ravens' willingness to throw more in 2021. From 2019-2020, Jackson had 37 or more passing attempts in a game only four times. He did so five times in 2021, with Baltimore throwing at a 60% clip. However, I would not anticipate the pass-heavy approach to continue into 2022. Their philosophical change on offense was forced out of necessity based on the injuries. But a lack of passing doesn't impact Jackson they way it does most other QBs with his greatest fantasy asset being his legs. Jackson may never recapture his 2019 rare MVP form when he averaged north of 28 fantasy points per game, but a 22-point per game average seems like his norm based on his last two years of fantasy production. In 2020, he led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback. That cements him as a clear-cut top-5 fantasy QB. |
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51.
DK Metcalf
WR - SEA (vs . LAR)
D.K. Metcalf played last season with Geno Smith and a watered-down version of Russell Wilson under center and still managed to finish as WR20. While the pairing of Smith and Drew Lock might hamper his ceiling, Metcalf's floor is as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3. Metcalf's volume and efficiency should still lend to spike weeks regardless of the quarterback. Last season he was eighth in target share (27.3%), 24th in targets per snap, and 20th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF).
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52.
George Kittle
TE - SF (vs . ARI)
George Kittle is arguably the most talented tight end in the NFL. If his health or offensive scheme would ever comply and allow him to be fed religiously, he would be the TE1 by a decent margin. Over the last three seasons, he has been the king of efficiency, leading the position in yards per route run each year and never finishing lower than third in yards after the catch per reception (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). If Trey Lance can unlock another level to this offense, Kittle can recapture the TE1 crown that he last held in 2019.
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53.
Marquise Brown
WR - ARI (at SF)
Marquise Brown was the WR21 in weekly fantasy scoring last season, setting career-highs in targets (146), receptions (91), and receiving yards (1,008). Brown will take up the alpha role in the Arizona offense to start the season with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined by a suspension. He should have no issues leading the team in targets until Hopkins returns, with A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz being his main competition. While his volume will take a hit when Hopkins returns, he can still manufacture ceiling weeks late into the season with his role as a field stretcher. Last season he finished eighth in deep targets. He'll enjoy the deep ball upgrade he has received with Kyler Murray. Last year Murray was third in deep-ball accuracy rating (per Playerprofiler).
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54.
Darren Waller
TE - LV (vs . KC)
There's bound to be some hesitancy about drafting tight ends early after guys like George Kittle, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson and Logan Thomas failed to live up to their lofty projections (due to injury or not).
But the process was still sound behind adding some of those players in the early rounds if you look at their per-game production. Speaking to Waller, the Raiders tight end came in third in expected fantasy points per game (14.6), which ranked top-20 among all tight ends and wide receivers. He also ranked sixth in points per game (12.1) and second in targets per game (8.5) The major concern with Waller in 2022 is how much Davante Adams will eat into his targets. However, I'd focus more on valuing Waller based on how good the Raiders offense as a whole can be with the addition of Adams. I'd be willing to forego one or fewer targets per game for Waller, if it means more scoring opportunities. The big-bodied Black Hole tight end is primed for positive touchdown regression after converting just two of his 10 end-zone targets into touchdowns in 2021. |
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55.
Josh Jacobs
RB - LV (vs . KC)
The Raiders offense looks to reach new heights in 2022 with No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams added to the fold. And that greatly benefits the team's lead ball-carrier Josh Jacobs. A more efficient offense lends itself to more scoring opportunities, and Jacobs will reap the most rewards as the team's primary red-zone back.
Last year's RB13 smashed career highs in all receiving categories in 2021 despite playing alongside Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard. Injuries to the back-ups boosted Jacobs' role as a receiver slightly, but it was not the only cause. There was a deliberate effort to feature Jacobs more as a receiver with him catching at least two passes in 12 of his 15 games played. And more importantly, the receiving capability that Jacobs displayed puts to rest the narrative that he is "game-script" dependent. Whether the Raiders are winning or losing in a loaded 2022 AFC West, JJ has proven he can be used in all facets. Now the Raiders did elect to sign both Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah this offseason to bolster their running back stable behind Jacobs. Bolden has been a special teams guy nearly his entire career, so I doubt he carves out any legitimate role on offense. Abdullah has been used as a third-down back on the several teams he has been on at the NFL level, but I am not ready to declare him as a huge threat to Jacobs' workload. Sure he might work in some, but not enough to hurt Jacobs' bottom-line value. The team also drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, but I would not expect much from White in year one based on Josh McDaniels' track record from New England of not featuring Day 3 rookie RBs. The new head coach is more likely to run Jacobs into the ground on an expiring contract as he did with Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen during his Patriots tenure. And besides, the red-zone role is the most significant for fantasy points, and that looks to be clearly in Jacobs' grasp. Two-down back Damien Harris was in the red-zone role for the Patriots last season and flourished because of it. He ranked fourth in carries (46) and third in rushing TDs (13) from inside the 20-yard line. |
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56.
Chase Edmonds
RB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
This past year Chase Edmonds was viewed as the Arizona starting running back alongside James Conner. He stood as the RB21 through the first six weeks prior to suffering an ankle injury. Edmonds ranked fourth in the NFL in receptions among running backs (four catches and five targets per game).
Edmonds won't ever be a true three-down back due to durability concerns, as he missed seven games this past season. But used properly and kept healthy, there's no denying Edmonds can be a viable fantasy option because of his receiving and explosiveness. His spot-start usage/production in Weeks 16-17 without James Conner in the lineup - 23.9 expected fantasy points per game - showcases a running back who can deliver massive fantasy upside any given week. In 14 career games when Edmonds has commanded at least 11 touches - his average fantasy finish is RB18 (PPR). Edmonds should see plenty of work in a Dolphins backfield splitting snaps with Sony Michel and Raheem Mostert. Considering Gaskins' fantasy spike weeks in 2021 all came from his receiving usage, Edmonds should find similar success in that role with Miami. The late signing of running back Mostert and Michel might have some fantasy gamers soured on Edmonds. However, Edmonds was never going to see a full bell-cow workload. Losing out on some early-down carries to Mostert or Michel was to be expected. I'd still prefer Edmonds in fantasy due to the pass-catching and hope the other signings keeps his ADP at a value. |
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57.
Darnell Mooney
WR - CHI (vs . MIN)
Darnell Mooney is poised to take another step forward this season. Last year his 1.72 yards per route run (40th, minimum 50 targets per PFF) won't blow you away, but the inherent volume he's walking into and Justin Fields taking another step forward will be the tide to help fantasy gamers raise "ships." Last season in the five games without Allen Robinson on the field, Mooney averaged 9.6 targets and 78.2 receiving yards per game. The yardage mark would have been the seventh-highest mark. Mooney's median is a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3, but if he garners more than 11 red-zone targets (38th) he received last year, he could vault even higher.
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58.
Gabe Davis
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
Gabriel Davis averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game (PPR) and 16.0 expected fantasy points per game in his last six games while running a route on 88% of dropbacks as the Bills finally emphasized his playing time in the offense.
As a strong bet to earn the No. 2 wide receiver job come opening day, Davis has a legitimate shot to be a reliable fantasy option in a Josh Allen-led offense in 2022. |
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59.
Dameon Pierce
RB - HOU (at IND)
If you liked Dameon Pierce before the NFL Draft, then you should be thrilled about his landing spot in Houston.
There's a high chance that PFF's highest-graded running back from the FBS (92.0) in 2021 carves out a role on early downs after the team released Marlon Mack. He's already seen work with the first-team through training camp and rested as a "starter" during the team's second preseason game. He started the 3rd preseason game. And news flash, people - Mack only signed a one-year, $two-million deal with Houston, and that was less than the team is paying Rex Burkhead..1 million of Burkhead's $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed. I thought we could easily see Mack released as much as we could see Pierce become the team's starting running back. Looks like both are becoming a reality. Even though Pierce never topped 106 carries in college. There may have been some underlying issue with former Gators head coach Dan Mullen that prevented Pierce from seeing a more featured role. Case in point: Pierce only had two games with double-digit carries in 2021, both of which came after Mullen was fired toward the end of the season. Pierce's lackluster dominator rating doesn't capture his coach's potential ineptitude. The fact Pierce competed with NFL talent like Jordan Scarlett and La'Mical Perine very early in his college career paints a better picture of how his impact will be felt in years to come. And from the get-go, I think we see Pierce be a major fantasy factor to start the 2022 season. |
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60.
J.K. Dobbins
RB - BAL (at CIN)
Running backs tied to a mobile quarterback are often short-changed when it comes to the passing game. For as well as J.K. Dobbins performed in fantasy football from Weeks 11-17 in full PPR (RB11) during the 2020 season, guess who outscored him... J.D. McKissic. That's because McKissic caught 37 passes versus Dobbins' three.
Guys like Derrick Henry can overcome the lack of receiving work because they are entrenched bell cows, but that's not the case with Dobbins in Baltimore with Gus Edwards also in the mix. Dobbins only slightly out-touched Edwards 86-74 down the stretch in 2020. It would be pure ignorance to assume that Dobbins will take over the backfield considering Edwards has been excellent with every opportunity he has received. Dobbins also ran extremely hot when it came to scoring touchdowns, scoring at least one TD in every game from Week 11 on. His nine total rushing TDs ranked 12th in the league and nearly doubled his expected output (5.5, 30th) - the sixth-highest difference at the position. Drafters have to understand that to invest in Dobbins as a late third-rounder or fourth-rounder (RB20, 50th overall ADP) he needs to run hot in the TD category coming off the season-ending ACL injury. They also should expect zero-to-little pass-game work with Jackson's tendency to not check down along with the additions of receiving backs, veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie. |
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61.
Antonio Gibson
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
Antonio Gibson has been a solid option over the last two seasons as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked tenth in yards per route run, fifth in evaded tackles, and 14th in juke rate. He was tied for seventh in carries inside the five-yard line and eighth in weighted opportunities. We already know the pass game usage is capped with J.D. McKissic resigned. Still, with him putting the ball on the turf in the preseason, his early down work was out the window until Brian Robinson sustained multiple gunshot wounds in an attempted robbery. Gibson's hold on the job, even if Robinson is sidelined, should be considered tentative. Washington has repeatedly screamed at us that they do not trust Gibson. Don't rule out the team bringing in a free agent to compete with Gibson. He should be viewed as a risky low-end RB3 with upside should Robinson be out for an extended amount of time.
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62.
Jalen Hurts
QB - PHI (vs . NYG)
In his first full season, Jalen Hurts was the QB6 in fantasy points per game as the Eagles starting quarterback. An ankle sprain dropped his rushing numbers from 57.9 to 29.7 yards per game over his final three contests. Without that ding, his full-season numbers could have been even better. With another season in this offensive system incoming and A.J. Brown now on the roster, Hurts has "the QB1 overall" fantasy quarterback upside in 2022.
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63.
Jerry Jeudy
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
Entering Year 3, Jerry Jeudy finally has a quarterback who can take full advantage of his ability to separate from defenders - 96th percentile separation percentage in 2021 - with Russell Wilson taking the reins.
With Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick operating from the outside, Jeudy figures to become Wilson's go-to target in the slot unless K.J. Hamler pushes him out. Jeudy's efficiency metrics should also see a massive boost now that he's catching passes from a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, but it remains to be seen if Jeudy will play an ancillary role as a red-zone threat. Upgrading from Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater to Wilson is great for Jeudy, but we have to remember that he is still an unproven fantasy commodity. Great route-running and separation skills aside, he hasn't scored many fantasy points the last two seasons. And that's not the case with every Denver receiver, because Patrick's production last two seasons earned him a three-year, $34.5 million contract extension. Even so, Jeudy should easily experience his best NFL season to date in 2022, but it may not be as great as some die-hard Jeudy stans would care to admit. There are a lot of weapons in Denver, and predicting Wilson's best option on a week-to-week basis was often a challenge when it was only between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. As with those Seahawks receivers, there are going to be inconsistent weeks from Jeudy. And his lack of red-zone usage makes him more susceptible to bust games without having a touchdown opportunity to fall back on. |
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64.
Kyler Murray
QB - ARI (at SF)
Last season was another tale of two halves for Kyler Murray. In Weeks 1-8, with DeAndre Hopkins healthy, he was on fire as the QB6 completing 72.6% of his passes with 8.8 yards per attempt while averaging 284.5 passing yards per game. After Week 9, with Hopkins banged up and in and out of the lineup, Murray was the QB16 with a 65.3% completion rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 251.8 passing yards per game. Fast forward to this season, and Hopkins is now slated to miss the first six games of the season. The trade to acquire Marquise Brown's services and drafting Trey McBride will help.
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65.
Rashod Bateman
WR - BAL (at CIN)
The Baltimore Ravens traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, opening the WR1 role on offense. Bateman has the opportunity to step in and be the true No. 1 wide receiver for Lamar Jackson (QB - BAL) in 2022 and beyond.
With Brown's 23% target share departure, Bateman can seize a massive role for fantasy as a high-end WR2. 2022 is Shoddy B breakout SZN. |
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66.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR - DET (at GB)
Amon-Ra St. Brown's fantastic season-ending stretch was eye-popping, but it also needs context as we look forward to the 2022 season. St. Brown's final six games were filled with insane volume ranking behind only Justin Jefferson in targets (67) and target share (33.5%) and sixth in weighted opportunity, but his efficiency was also elite. During that stretch, he was also 13th in yards per route run immediately behind Davante Adams and Micheal Pittman (minimum ten targets, per PFF). T.J. Hockenson was out, and D'Andre Swift was a part-time player as St. Brown turned in full legend mode performances.
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67.
Dalton Schultz
TE - DAL (at WAS)
Dalton Schultz crushed last season at the TE5 in weekly fantasy scoring. His upside this season is even higher as he could enter the top three discussion at his position. In his first season with a featured role, he ranked 11th in yards per route run and 14th in targets per snap. With Michael Gallup questionable to begin the season at full health and only James Washington and Jalen Tolbert behind CeeDee Lamb, Schultz should easily carve out his role as the number two option in the Dallas passing attack.
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68.
Chris Godwin
WR - TB (at ATL)
Chris Godwin posted another stellar season last year as the WR7 in fantasy football. He set opposing defenses on fire as Tom Brady's underneath weapon, ranking eighth in YAC per reception and fifth in overall YAC yardage. The biggest question for Godwin in 2022 isn't talent, but his recovery from an ACL and MCL tear sustained in Week 15 of last season. Godwin is a top 15 fantasy wideout when 100%, but tempering expectations early on if he's limited pushes him into WR3 territory.
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69.
Michael Thomas
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
The last time we saw Michael Thomas, he limped to a WR41 finish in fantasy points per game. While this sounds horrendous, much of it is related to the fact he scored zero touchdowns in 2020, as his underlying metrics were still strong. Thomas ranked 24th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF) and drew a 27.9% target share in his seven games played. With a better supporting receiving class around him now, the Saints could throw the ball more often this season. If Thomas can get back to full strength, he should still be a fulcrum for the New Orleans aerial attack as a target hog.
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70.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB - KC (at LV)
Although Clyde Edwards-Helaire's rookie season showed signs of hope - RB11 through his first six professional games - the step backward in Year 2 is cause for concern.
CEH finished 59th out of 64 qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt (2.4) and third-to-last in target rate per route run at the running back position (13%). The poor rushing efficiency is bearable, but the poor receiving usage is hard to ignore. Especially considering his calling card out of LSU was catching balls out of the backfield. His 0.73 yards per route run ranked 64th out of 68 qualifying running backs - also significantly worse than his teammates Darrel Williams (1.28) and Jerick McKinnon (1.15). Some may also feel that the Ronald Jones addition is the final nail in the coffin for CEH, but it's not that black and white. Don't get me wrong though - Jones is a significant threat to earn more carries than Edwards-Helaire after the former first-rounder posted worse rushing efficiency numbers than his rookie season. But full transparency - Jones was not much better ranking 51st in the same category (2.5). It's actually a positive sign for Edwards-Helaire that the team brought in Jones instead of re-signing McKinnon or Williams. Those ex-Chiefs backs were proven pass-catchers and limited CEH's role as a receiver. I'd presume that Edwards-Helaire will fully take over the primary pass-catching role - which was the reason why the Chiefs drafted him in the 1st round in any way - while also working in tandem with Jones as a rusher on early downs. Jones splitting work might also help keep CEH healthy after his 10 missed games the past two seasons. The other RBs on the Chiefs current roster include Derrick Gore (4th-year UDFA), Isiah Pacheco (2022 7th-rounder), Jerrion Ealy (2022 UDFA) and Tayon Fleet-Davis (2022 UDFA). |
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71.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR - KC (at LV)
It always seemed more probable than not that JuJu Smith-Schuster would find his way to Kansas City in free agency. The Chiefs were interested in him last season, and the landing spot is perfect to revive Smith-Schuster's fantasy football value. He's just one year removed from a WR17 finish in PPR between two injury-plagued seasons.
Let's not forget JuJu had an elite sophomore campaign - 1,400-plus receiving yards - and he is still just 25 years old. With the most vacated targets available in Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes his new quarterback, 2022 will be a return to form for Smith-Schuster. He can operate from his natural position in the slot and benefit from the playmakers around him. After all, Smith-Schuster was at his best as a Pittsburgh Steeler during his first two seasons playing opposite of Antonio Brown. |
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72.
Damien Harris
RB - NE (at BUF)
Damien Harris' ADP has dropped nearly a full round since the NFL draft took place and it's unwarranted. All the Patriots did was draft two Day 3 running backs who will most likely be red-shirted their first seasons.
Harris should be the bellcow back for the Patriots in the final year of his contract as has been the case for many New England backs playing on expiring contracts. And should he see a heavy workload, there's going to be fantasy points to come by. In 2021, Harris finished 2nd in carries inside the 10-yd line, second to only Jonathan Taylor. The former Alabama back also led all running backs during the 2021 regular season in fantasy points per snap. As PFF's highest-graded running back (91.8) over the past two seasons, Harris needs to be held in extremely high regard. With one more year on his rookie deal, New England has all the incentive to ride Harris for the entire 2022 season. Although there is some risk that he will be used in a 50/50 split with second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team's remaining seven games. In the six games they played together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs 8.9). |
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73.
Rashaad Penny
RB - SEA (vs . LAR)
Rashaad Penny was excellent to close the season in 2021. In Weeks 14-18, he averaged 18.4 rushing attempts and 134.2 rushing yards per game as the RB1 in fantasy football. He only ran a route on 32.2% (per PFF) of Russell Wilson's dropbacks last year, so don't expect up from him in the passing game. His rushing prowess is legit, though. Penny could be stuck in a committee with Kenneth Walker, but don't rule out him running away with the job for 2022.
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74.
Elijah Moore
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
Elijah Moore ranked as the fantasy WR2 over his last stretch of six games played.
His 16.1 fantasy points per game would have ranked fifth had he continued the production the remainder of the season. Unfortunately his season was cut short due to injuries and COVID-19 implications. The addition of Garrett Wilson makes Moore's second-year ascension less certain as he did not have much target competition during his scorching finish outside of veteran Jamison Crowder. |
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75.
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB - NE (at BUF)
Rhamondre Stevenson experienced a very successful rookie season that should not be overlooked. After fully escaping the Bill Belichick doghouse in Week 9, Stevenson earned top grades across the board.
He was PFF's third-highest graded running back (84.2). Stevenson also ranked 13th in rushing yards and in yards per route run (1.41). For fantasy, the rookie running back was the RB25 in total points scored, eight spots behind his backfield teammate Harris. There's a high ceiling for Stevenson, especially if you ask former Patriots linebacker Rob Ninkovich. The ESPN analyst went as far as saying that Stevenson "...will be one of the better, if not one of the top three, running backs in the league based on what I saw with his strength, explosion and catch-and-run ability." |
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76.
Joe Burrow
QB - CIN (vs . BAL)
Joe Burrow finished the regular season as PFF's highest-graded passer (91.2) while also ranking first in super sticky stats like passing grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing grade throwing at the intermediate level (95.6). He finished the season as the QB8 averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game.
The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly entered the conversation as one of the league's best real-life NFL passers, but might be slightly overvalued based on early best ball ADP with impending regression. He's the QB6 despite finishing as a top-6 fantasy quarterback just thrice in 2021. No quarterback scored more fantasy points over expectation, which hints that regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The LSU product also rushed for just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low across consensus due to his lack of upside as a rusher. However, there is a legitimate path for Burrow's upside to be further unlocked if the Bengals increase their pass rate as they did during his rookie season and down the playoff stretch. Burrow led the NFL in passing attempts per game (40.4) during his rookie season and averaged 38 passing attempts/23.0 fantasy points per game in his final six weeks An uptick in passing volume won't help Burrow's efficiency per se, but his fantasy numbers will be much more stable from week to week. Also can't forget to mention the Bengals revamped their offensive line as they look to not let their franchise quarterback get sacked 70 times - 22 more than the next closest quarterback. |
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77.
Dallas Goedert
TE - PHI (vs . NYG)
Dallas Goedert was an efficiency monster last season. He ranked first in yards per route run, seventh in YAC per reception, second in fantasy points per route run, and third in fantasy points per target (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). The arrival of A.J. Brown does hurt his ceiling, but he's still a locked-in top 12 option at his position.
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78.
Kareem Hunt
RB - CLE (at PIT)
Kareem Hunt's been rumored to be on the trade block this offseason. His contract expires in 2023, and the Browns have a mighty stable of backs behind Nick Chubb including D'Ernest Johnson, Jerome Ford and Demetric Felton.
If no deal is reached by the time the season starts, it would be much less likely that Hunt stays in Cleveland, making him a primed trade target for any team that suffers an injury at running back through training camp/preseason. . Last year Hunt was limited to just eight games due to a calf injury - but he maintained his effectiveness when healthy through the first six weeks of the season. He was a top-10 running back in PPR averaging 17 fantasy points per game averaging just south of 15 touches per game. Hunt's true upside will always be capped in a backfield as the Robin to Chubb's Batman. But should an injury occur to Chubb or another star running back, Hunt would easily flirt with league-winning upside if he is awarded the requisite volume to do so. His 6th-ranked yards after contact per attempt (3.54), 6th-ranked yards per route run (1.81) and 26% target rate suggest he's not slowing down entering age 27-season. All he needs his a change of scenery to recapture his rookie year accolades when he lead the NFL in rushing yards. |
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79.
Tony Pollard
RB - DAL (at WAS)
Tony Pollard is coming off a career-high in rushing attempts (130) and targets (46). Pollard was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. Last season he was fourth in yards after contact per attempt behind only Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor (minimum 100 carries, per PFF). He was also first in yards per route run at the position. Pollard offers stand-alone RB3 production as he was the RB30 in fantasy points per game last season. If anything happens to Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard has league-winning upside.
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80.
Amari Cooper
WR - CLE (at PIT)
Amari Cooper finished last season 27th in half-PPR per game (11.2), which was in line with his career average.
There is hope that he can provide a higher floor as the clear No. 1 wide receiver in Cleveland. And that floor will be accompanied by an extremely high ceiling with Deshaun Watson entrenched under center over the final 10 games of the season. The ex-Texans quarterback fueled top fantasy WR finishes for the likes of Brandin Cooks (WR16, 2020) and Will Fuller (WR8/game, 2020) the last time he played. And prior to that, he supplemented DeAndre Hopkins as the fantasy WR4 and WR10 from 2018-2019. However, the boom-or-bust nature to his game will likely remain a staple of his game. Having Brissett over the first six weeks - alongside a projectable run-heavy offense - will make Cooper inconsistent. Although Brissett can prove to be serviceable, he is a significant downgrade compared to Dak Prescott. If Cooper only managed to finish as WR27 in 15 games with Prescott, it's hard to be optimistic about him as the Browns WR1 or your fantasy WR2. There's also a glaring issue of the indoor/outdoor splits that Cooper has posted during his career. |
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81.
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN (at CHI)
Adam Thielen has been a model of consistency with top 14 fantasy point-per-game finishes in four of the last five seasons. Last season he finally began to show his age, though. After strong seasons in yards per route run since 2016, Thielen finally slipped to 1.63, which ranked 48th (among wideouts with 50 or more targets, per PFF), immediately behind Mecole Hardman. Thielen has been top 23 in red-zone targets in four of the last five seasons, with three years on his resume with nine or more receiving touchdowns. With declining per route efficiency, he'll need the touchdowns (and many of them) to continue as a productive fantasy wide receiver.
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82.
Miles Sanders
RB - PHI (vs . NYG)
Miles Sanders opened the year playing 60-83% of snaps in the first six games but only averaging 9.5 rushing attempts per game. He did see 3.8 targets per game. He then sustained an ankle injury that landed him on the injured reserve. When he returned from the ankle injury, he was the Eagles' clear lead back (Weeks 11-15), averaging 16.8 carries per game, although his pass game usage dried up (1.8 targets per game). Despite seeing 23 touches inside the 20, he failed to get into the endzone in 2021. While Sanders will see touchdown regression this season, he will still have to deal with Jalen Hurts near the goal line and the looming specters of Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. He could return RB2 production this season, but there's the risk with his injury history which has already reared its ugly head in camp (hamstring). Gainwell has also been rumored as the red zone back, so the high-valued touches for Sanders are not a lock.
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83.
Russell Wilson
QB - DEN (vs . LAC)
Russell Wilson's weapons/supporting cast overall are pretty even going from Seattle to Denver, but Nathaniel Hackett calling the shots is an upgrade over Pete Carroll.
Hackett's obviously had success with Aaron Rodgers that has translated into fantasy, so a top-five fantasy quarterback outcome is firmly in play with Wilson in 2022. After all, Wilson's long track record of efficient fantasy play is undeniable - he has finished among the top-six fantasy QBs five times since 2014. I like his chances of making it seven in 2022. Because Wilson is still among the league's elite passers when healthy. Before the finger derailed his season, Russ led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before Week 5. Wilson also finished the season on a high note, averaging over 24 fantasy points per game in his last three contests. All in all, 2021 was a typical season for Wilson: peaks and valleys. He averaged 23 fantasy points per game from Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 16-18. In his six games post-injury, Wilson averaged an abysmal 13 fantasy points per game. Buy the inevitable 2022 dip on the future Hall of Fame quarterback in a new situation. That combined with a plethora of weapons in Denver, makes it very plausible he sees similar immediate success that other quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford have had since changing teams late into their careers. However a QB10 ADP might be too rich, as I think he belongs in the same tier as Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Matthew Stafford. Currently, he's the only QB drafted inside the top-12 that failed to hit the fantasy QB1 mark at least 50% of the time in 2021. He also has the lowest top-6 hit rate (15%), lowest top-12 rate (46%), and second-highest bust rate among the top-12 ADP. Considering the only "upgrade" Wilson has moved from Denver to Seattle is more favorable coaching (not necessarily receiver personnel, especially with the underrated loss of Tim Patrick), he's likely going to be inconsistent and overvalued due to a lack of rushing juice. |
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84.
Tom Brady
QB - TB (at ATL)
At age 44, Tom Brady attempted the most passes in the league (719) and finished with the most passing yards (5,316) and second-most passing touchdowns (43) in any single season of his career. Brady was the QB3 in fantasy points per game. While he might not reach those heights in 2022, he will still be leading one of the NFL's fastest-paced and most talented offenses. If Brady's fountain of youth and avocado milkshakes can hold off father time, he's a top 5-10 option at the position in fantasy.
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85.
T.J. Hockenson
TE - DET (at GB)
We have likely seen the ceiling already for T.J. Hockenson, but that shouldn't be construed as shade. Hockenson has now logged back-to-back TE7 finishes in fantasy points per game which is still extremely good, but it's doubtful he ever reaches the heights of top 3-5 status. He's also ranked 11th in each of the last two seasons in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). With added target competition with the additions of Jameson Williams and D.J. Chark, Hockenson remains a top ten option at the position. Still, his ceiling is likely capped, keeping him outside the top five.
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86.
Brandon Aiyuk
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
After escaping the Kyle Shanahan doghouse, Brandon Aiyuk played at least 90% of snaps in every game after Week 9. Over that stretch, his efficiency was off the charts as he was 13th in yards per route run and the sixth-highest graded wide receiver (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). Aiyuk was the WR21 in fantasy points per game among all wide receivers that started at least three games during that period. Aiyuk's talent is apparent, but he resides on a run-first offense with little touchdown equity (44th in red-zone targets). He's an upside WR4 this season.
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87.
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
Cordarrelle Patterson enters his age 31 season, coming off a career year as the RB16 in fantasy points per game. After beginning the season in a hybrid role, the team moved him to more of a traditional running back role as the season rolled along. In Weeks 1-10, Patterson played running back on 56.2% of his snaps and outside or in the slot on 37.7% of his snaps. He was a running back for 69.9% of his snaps for the rest of the season, with only 29.5% of his playing time coming as a receiver. Patterson flourished in his swiss army knife role as the RB10 through the first ten weeks before fading as the RB31 over his final seven games. The receiving game is where Patterson needs to be utilized to hit a ceiling. Last year, he was incredibly effective, ranking behind only Christian McCaffrey in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). With age, role, and increased target competition factoring into his 2022 outlook, Patterson is best viewed as an RB3/RB4 with upside.
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88.
Devin Singletary
RB - BUF (vs . NE)
Buffalo invested second round draft capital into a rookie James Cook this offseason, but that's no reason to totally write off last year's starting tailback Devin Singletary. The fourth-year back was unleashed down the stretch for the Bills, finishing as the RB3 in PPR scoring over the final six weeks of the season - 17 fantasy points per game. He gained the coaching staff's trust by earning 54-plus snaps to close out the season, the highest snap number Singletary saw all season dating back to Week 1.
Buffalo also didn't let off the Motor Singletary when the team hit the playoffs, with the RB1 averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game from the Wild Card Round through the Divisonal Round. With a proven track record and two years of bell-cow back usage in spurts, don't be surprised when PFF's fourth-ranked running back in rushes of 15-plus yards and seventh-ranked player in forced missed tackles in 2021 is the highly sought-after RB breakout that emerges from a high-octane ambiguous backfield. |
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89.
Dak Prescott
QB - DAL (at WAS)
Dak Prescott rebounded nicely from a lost 2020 season (due to injury) as the QB9 in weekly fantasy scoring. Prescott's former rushing floor evaporated as he finished with the lowest rushing yardage total (146) for a full season of his career. Despite losing Amari Cooper this offseason, the Cowboy's passing attack should be fine as the team retained Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz and added Jalen Tolbert. Dallas led the NFL in neutral pace last season. With heightened play volume helping his passing numbers, Prescott should have no issues compensating for the lost rushing production as a locked-in top ten fantasy quarterback. The loss of Tyron Smith could lead to some of his rushing production returning.
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90.
DeVonta Smith
WR - PHI (vs . NYG)
DeVonta Smith concluded his rookie campaign as the WR36 in weekly fantasy scoring. Smith was productive in yards per route run, ranking 30th (1.77) among all wideouts with 50 or more targets and third amongst rookies with 25 or more targets (per PFF). He surpassed fellow highly touted receivers Elijah Moore (1.75) and Jaylen Waddle (1.75) in this metric. With A.J. Brown in town, the Eagles could return to the pass-heavy ways from the beginning of 2021. If this happens, Smith's low-end WR3 status from last season could be the floor if he can increase his touchdown output. Smith was the WR37 last year in receiving yards per game.
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91.
Melvin Gordon III
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
Gordon is bound to be written off by fantasy draft pundits this offseason due to his age, but he proved that he still has gas in the tank in 2021. The 29-year-old running back was efficient across the board, ranking eighth in both PFF rushing grade (83.4) and forced missed tackles (45) while compiling 231 touches (16th).
With him back on a high-powered offense and with the potential to receive goal-line touches, he could easily become a screaming value in 2022 like James Conner or Leonard Fournette last year. |
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92.
Christian Kirk
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Everything came together for Christian Kirk in 2021 because he was finally used from the slot. Unsurprisingly, Kirk established career highs across the board in targets (112), receptions (83), and receiving yards (1,035) while filling the void left by an injured DeAndre Hopkins.
Kirk commanded a 21% target share without Hopkins in the lineup and averaged 13.8 fantasy PPR points per game - a top-10 per-game average. In addition, he finished with the second most receiving yards from the slot among all wide receivers. Kirk should stay kicked iside with the Jaguars after they got little production from that position in 2021. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault ranked in the bottom 10 with 1.30 yards per route run from the slot. Kirk ranked 13th with 1.80 yards per route run from the slot. He is shaping up to be the new Amari Rodgers for Trevor Lawrence, operating from the inside. At worst, Kirk takes shape as a strong WR3 asset who can elevate to WR2 status quickly with an up-and-coming quarterback. |
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93.
Hunter Renfrow
WR - LV (vs . KC)
There's really not much left to say when it comes to Hunter Renfrow. The kid's a certified stud and doesn't get the respect he deserves. The Raiders slot receiver hung a WR13 overall finish last season due to a spectacular late-season surge.
He went over 100 receiving yards in three straight games (Weeks 12-14) while maintaining a 25% target share. From Week 12 onward, his production generated a WR8 standing in half-point scoring. Renfrow made the most of the opportunities he got in 2021, and that won't change in 2022. Adding Davante Adams and Darren Waller will make targets for Renfrow harder to come by, but stay rest assured that the shifty wideout will perform if either guy is forced to miss time. |
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94.
Drake London
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
Drake London arrives in Atlanta to give Kyle Pitts a run for his money as the Falcons' target leader in 2022. In his final season at USC, London gobbled up looks, averaging a mind-melting 14.8 targets, 11 receptions, and 135.5 receiving yards. He's primed to vacuum up opportunities in his rookie season as a versatile wide receiver that ranked fifth in yards per route run among FBS wide receivers last year (minimum 50 targets per PFF). The rookie wide receiver explosion in recent years could easily continue with the London liftoff this season.
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95.
Allen Lazard
WR - GB (vs . DET)
Allen Lazard could be the leading wide receiver for the Packers this season. The chemistry with Lazard and Rodgers has been battle-tested. Lazard wins with regularity in the areas of the field where Rodgers likes to pepper targets. Over the last three seasons, Rodgers has ranked 13th, 8th, and 13th in pass attempts between 0-9 yards from the line of scrimmage (per PFF). Over that same time span, Lazard has ranked seventh, first, and 25th in yards per route in this area of the field (minimum 20 short-area targets, per PFF).
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96.
Trey Lance
QB - SF (vs . ARI)
Even with Jimmy Garoppolo remaining on the team in a backup role, Trey Lance should be considered the team's starter barring a full faceplant this season. In the brief two-game sample of Lance starting last year, we got a glimpse at the biggest factor for his fantasy ceiling: the rushing upside. In those two games, Lance averaged 12 carries and 60 yards on the ground as the QB20 and QB10 in weekly scoring. Even with Garoppolo at the helm, the 49ers were sixth in EPA per play and second in yards per play. Lance's legs give him a top 12-15 fantasy quarterback floor with top-five upside should he light it up through the air.
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97.
Zach Ertz
TE - ARI (at SF)
The stage is set for Zach Ertz to volume hog his way to another top 12 tight end season. With DeAndre Hopkins missing a chunk of the season, Ertz should get off to a fantastic start. Last season without Hopkins in the lineup (Weeks 9-11, 15-18), Ertz saw a 23.7% target share and finished as a top ten tight end in 71.4% of his games. Arizona adding Marquise Brown and Trey McBride will muddy the target waters some, but Ertz's role in the offense and Hopkins' missing time should allow him to get off to a fast start and propel him to another TE1 season.
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98.
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA (vs . LAR)
Tyler Lockett is slipping down draft boards because of the impending dumpster fire that will be at quarterback. Lockett was one of the most efficient wide receivers in football last season, so despite the obvious downgrade in quarterback play, there are reasons to remain hopeful for his 2022 season. Last year he ranked ninth in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) and receiving yards per game. If Lockett can hold off father time one more season, he can return WR3 numbers with boom weeks still in the range of outcomes.
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99.
Matthew Stafford
QB - LAR (at SEA)
Matthew Stafford is thoroughly enjoying his new marriage with Sean McVay. His first year in a Rams jersey led to a career-high completion rate (67.2%) and tying his career-high in passing touchdowns (41) en route to a Super Bowl title. Stafford was the QB11 in fantasy points per game after ranking inside the top ten in deep ball attempts, deep ball completion percentage, and pressured completion rate. Stafford should be considered a rock-solid back-end QB1.
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100.
Aaron Rodgers
QB - GB (vs . DET)
Aaron Rodgers doesn't look like he's lost a step after finishing last season as the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Rodgers was top-five in fantasy points per dropback and clean pocket completion rate. Losing his bae Davante Adams hurts his ceiling and per-play efficiency outlooks. Efficiency has been the driver of his fantasy goodness because he resides inside one of the NFL's slowest-paced offenses. Raw volume won't be there to help counteract the dip there, so Rodgers falls into the QB2 bucket with weekly top 12 upside.
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101.
Dawson Knox
TE - BUF (vs . NE)
Dawson Knox has major red flags on his profile from his impending touchdown regression to super-low target rate per route run (14%), so any role that O.J. Howard potential earns
coming in is a massive problem. Considering Knox is being drafted in the middle-range of TEs (TE9) that typically have poor ROIs compared to guys going later, the Bills tight end remains hands-off. |
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102.
Robert Woods
WR - TEN (at JAC)
Robert Woods was traded to the Titans after the Rams signed Allen Robinson in free agency. The move was less about Woods' ability, but rather his salary cap hit that the Rams were looking to free themselves from.
Still, entering his age 30-season fantasy managers should question whether Woods has the juice left to continue producing for fantasy. Often viewed as a safe fantasy WR2 during his time in L.A. - he was WR17 before his injury in 2021 - Woods might be subject to some poor game conditions in the Titans' run-heavy approach that could nuke his weekly fantasy appeal. He's got a chance to be the No. 1 receiver if rookie Treylon Burks fails to hit the ground running, but anything less will not be fruitful for the seasoned veteran. Over the past two seasons, production has not been kind to WRs over 30 years old. Only three receivers over 30 - Cole Beasley, Adam Thielen, and Marvin Jones Jr. - finished as top-40 fantasy options. If he stays healthy, Woods could easily beat his ADP. But I'm just not sure how high his fantasy ceiling is based on the situation. |
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103.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
RB - LAR (at SEA)
Darrell Henderson has flashed during his career, but injuries and inconsistencies have held him down during his time in Los Angeles. In Weeks 1-12 last season, as the Rams' lead back, he was the RB14 averaging 16.9 touches and 82 total yards per game. Those numbers make his performance look far better than it was. After ranking 36th in yards created per touch and with 2.49 yards after contact per attempt (per PFF), he will need to handily outplay Cam Akers to unseat him. Henders is best viewed as a high-end handcuff.
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104.
James Cook
RB - BUF (vs . NE)
Rookie running back James Cook has immediate sleeper fantasy appeal across all PPR formats based on his second-round draft capital, pass-catching prowess, explosiveness and offensive situation. The 5-foot-11, 199-pound running back has more than enough heft to manage a decent workload especially as a receiver out of the backfield. The 5-foot-7, 203-pound Devin Singletary was the RB3 over the last six weeks of the regular season when the Bills entrenched him as the featured guy. Cook with an ECR of RB44 seems priced closer to their floor than his ceiling considering Round 2 running backs have finished as top-36 running backs more than half the time (55%) since 2013.
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105.
Michael Carter
RB - NYJ (at MIA)
RIP Michael Carter RB1 szn. The Jets drafted workhorse running back Breece Hall at the top of the 2nd round, but even considered trading up for him in Round 1 before selecting him 36th overall. The draft capital shows New York's commitment towards Hall being their clear-cut RB1 for 2022 and beyond, which makes Carter nothing more than a hand-cuff. It's a reminder to always sell high on Day 3 running backs that flash as rookies; they can be easily replaced and likely won't "survive" draft after draft without investment from their team.
Carter's looking anywhere between five-to-eight touches per game with Hall entrenched as the bellcow, making the former UNC back near obsolete as anything other than a backup with some upside. From Weeks 7-9 with Tevin Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. He also finished 10th in yards after contact per attempt (3.4) and third in PFF's elusive rating. Carter's receiving ability also fueled four top-17 weekly finishes in 2021, three of which were inside the top-13 in games that featured quarterback checkdown king Mike White under center. |
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106.
Kadarius Toney
WR - NYG (at PHI)
Kadarius Toney is a boom or bust type proposition for 2022. When Toney was on the field last year, there's no denying that he flashed immense upside. In 2021 among all wide receivers with 100 or more routes, only Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Antonio Brown, and Toney finished with a 29% target per route run rate (or higher) and at least 2.20 yards per route run.
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107.
DeAndre Hopkins
WR - ARI (at SF)
DeAndre Hopkins wasn't completely washed last season, but his days as an elite alpha wide receiver could be over. Last season he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game as he logged his first season since 2017 outside the top 20 in targets per snap. Hopkins only commanded a 20.5% target share which was good for 35th among wideouts. While the suspension should ensure that Hopkins will return fully healthy, it's not a sure thing that we don't see his numbers decline further in 2022. He ranked 31st in yards per route run last season (minimum 50 targets, per PFF).
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108.
Cole Kmet
TE - CHI (vs . MIN)
Cole Kmet ranked inside the top 12 amongst tight ends in targets (93, eighth), target share (17.7%, 11th), receiving yards (612, 12th), and air yard share (17.6%, 11th). With the depth chart devoid of receiving talent outside of Darnell Mooney, Kmet should see a similar share of the passing offense (if not more) in 2022. With touchdown regression poised to strike his box scores, Kmet is a high floor and ceiling option in fantasy.
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109.
Chris Olave
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
The Saints aggressively moved up for a player they have faith in with Chris Olave. If Michael Thomas isn't fully healthy, Olave could be pressed into number one wide receiver duties as Jarvis Landry is merely a complementary piece at this stage of his career. Olave is a polished prospect who finished 11th or better in yards per route run in two of the last three seasons (minimum 50 targets per PFF).
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110.
Kirk Cousins
QB - MIN (at CHI)
Kirk Cousins is the ugly duckling fantasy quarterback who found his way inside the top 12 producers (QB11, QB12) in back-to-back seasons. Cousins did so last season by directing a surprisingly up-tempo and more pass-heavy Vikings offense. Last year Minnesota was eighth and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate. With Kevin O'Connell at the controls this season, the passing rate could continue to be healthy (LAR, seventh), but the neutral pace could decline (LAR, 16th). If this happens and Adam Thielen takes a step back entering his age 32 season, Cousins will be rendered as a mid QB2.
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111.
Pat Freiermuth
TE - PIT (vs . CLE)
No rookie tight end flew up the dynasty rankings more than Pat Freiermuth, who made his case as a fringe fantasy TE1 in Year 1. The Pittsburgh Steelers rookie ramped things up in Week 6 after an injury to Eric Ebron and never looked back.
Baby Gronk was the TE7 from that time forward, averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game seventh). He would go on to finish the year as the TE13 overall despite running a route on just 56% of dropbacks. When starting and healthy, Freiermuth ran a route on 67% of dropbacks - a rate that would have ranked 15th-highest at the position in 2021. That's the bare minimum usage fantasy drafters should expect to see from the Penn State product with Ebron gone in free agency. |
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112.
Derek Carr
QB - LV (vs . KC)
The biggest winner in the aftermath of the Davante Adams trade is Derek Carr. He now has the luxury of throwing to a surplus of offensive weapons including arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in his old college teammate.
Let's not forget that when Carr had everybody available last season, the Raiders quarterback ranked second in the NFL in passing yards and 15th in fantasy points per game. However, his ceiling was limited due to his lack of mobility and weaponry; Carr did not finish better than a top-8 quarterback at any point in 2021. But Adams figures to provide Carr with a red-zone weapon like no other that will unlock his fantasy ceiling. He's the exact positive touchdown regression that should launch Carr's fantasy numbers. Carr's 3.7 TD rate in 2021 was below his career average (4.3). And his 23 total passing touchdowns were seven below expectation. Fully anticipate Carr throwing for 30-plus laser scores bare minimum with Adams at his disposal. Every quarterback last season that threw for at least 30 touchdowns finished inside the top-10 in 2021. |
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113.
Ken Walker III
RB - SEA (vs . LAR)
Kenneth Walker's 99th percentile college dominator and 96th percentile speed score will be a welcome sight for Pete Carroll. We know the Seahawks want to establish the hell out of it with Geno Smith as the Week 1 starter at quarterback. Since 2018 the Seahawks are third in neutral script rushing rate, so the volume will be there to support one elite-level back or tandem of backs with weekly RB2 or high RB3 potential. Walker has seen his ADP dip since he was sidelined after a hernia procedure. Enjoy the dip, and don't rule out him eventually stealing the job from Rashaad Penny sometime this season.
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114.
Treylon Burks
WR - TEN (at JAC)
Treylon Burks finished first in his class in yards per route run (3.57) while also ranking No. 1 in yards per route run when lined up outside (6.08) among all receivers. It's an encouraging sign that a size-speed specimen delivered when aligned on the perimeter, as he spent 77% of his career in the slot.
The rookie's 8.5 yards after the catch rank 14th among 169 qualifying wide receivers (92nd percentile) over the past two seasons.His elite college production and top-notch 32% dominator rating speak for themselves. And the best part is, he should produce from Day 1 after being drafted by the Tennessee Titans in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. There's hardly any competition for targets outside of Robert Woods), who is coming off a torn ACL. And with a similar YAC-ability to A.J. Brown, Burks should be able to step on the field on day one and offer immediate fantasy football appeal as a top-30 fantasy option. |
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115.
James Robinson
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
James Robinson operated as the pseudo bellcow for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2021 after Travis Etienne went down with a preseason injury. He posted inconsistent fantasy production as the RB24 overall and in points per game in 14 games amid horrible usage deployed by the 2021 Jags coaching staff.
His touches varied from 21-to-2 depending on the week, so he was nearly impossible to project in fantasy. It's possible that 2022 presents a similar issue with Robinson as Etienne makes his professional debut. But JRob does deserve credit for maintaining efficient play whenever he got opportunities last season, finishing 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.3) and 8th in red-zone touchdowns (8). His real hurdle for fantasy relevance besides fending off a 2022 first-round running back is attempting a speedy recovery from a torn Achilles suffered in late December. He was unable to participate in OTAs, while his backfield counterpart is full-go as the team installs the new-look Doug Pederson offense. The former undrafted free agent is not guaranteed to be ready for Week 1. Although he did avoid being placed on the PUP list, which is encouraging for his short-term availability. It's hard to envision Robinson being anything more than a speculative zero-RB target, with hopes that he can recapture 2020 form if given the volume. However, Pederson's track record of deploying a multitude of backs does make it seem like Robinson will be a 1B to Etienne's 1A, with his clearest path to fantasy relevance coming through goal-line opportunities. |
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116.
Nyheim Hines
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
Nyheim Hines posted career-lows across the receiving board in 2021, but there's hope that with a new quarterback under center that he can bounce back in 2022.
No passer targeted running backs more than new Colts quarterback Matt Ryan did in 2021 - 8.6 targets per game. Bodes well for Hines to provide more usable weeks like he did in 2020. That year, Hines finished as RB18 in PPR scoring. |
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117.
Chase Claypool
WR - PIT (vs . CLE)
Chase Claypool's second-year breakout was inevitably halted by Ben Roethlisberger's lack of downfield throwing ability: On throws with 20-plus air yards, Big Ben graded 31st out of 38 qualifying QBs.
Claypool commanded a 27% air yards share on the season and led the team in the metric over the final four weeks. Better days should be ahead of the Notre Dame product if Pittsburgh can get better downfield quarterback play from Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky. Claypool is also due for positive touchdown regression after catching just one of his 12 end-zone targets last season. The 6-foot-5 monster is no stranger to hitting paydirt, after being one of eight wide receivers to score double-digit touchdowns as rookies since 1998. However, Claypool's range of outcomes is quite wide heading into his third season with 2022 second-round pick George Pickens, chomping at the bit to be the No. 2 on the offense behind Diontae Johnson. |
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118.
Tyler Boyd
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
Tyler Boyd was a victim of circumstances more than anything else in 2021, with two alpha wide receivers in the Bengals offense leaving him nothing but scraps. The Bengals slot receiver commanded just a 15% target share and target rate per route run.
The target rate per route ranked dead-last among 73 qualifying players last season that commanded at least 100 targets. It's clear that Boyd can't be viewed as much working as a clear ancillary piece of the Cincinnati passing attack. Tight end C.J. Uzomah's departure does open up the potential that Boyd could shoulder a larger target workload, but his upside remains extremely limited while Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are healthy. |
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119.
Kenneth Gainwell
RB - PHI (vs . NYG)
Kenneth Gainwell was in the backfield mix all season long, but he wasn't given a prominent role. The most we saw of Gainwell was 53% of the snaps played in Week 18, where he turned his 16 touches into 87 total yards. With Jordan Howard not returning, he's in the running with Boston Scott and Kennedy Brooks to mix in behind Miles Sanders. Gainwell was sixth in yards per route run last season, which isn't shocking considering his receiving chops coming out of Memphis. His ability as a pass-catcher could be his easiest path to earning more playing time this season.
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120.
Alexander Mattison
RB - MIN (at CHI)
Alexander Mattison has played out of his mind when given the opportunity with Dalvin Cook sidelined. In the four games since 2020 with 60% or higher snap counts, he's averaged 23.5 rushing attempts with 148.2 total yards per game. In that quartet of games, he was the RB7, RB6, RB8, and RB4 in weekly scoring. Mattison is primed to remain one of the top handcuff options in fantasy.
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121.
Garrett Wilson
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
After enjoying a breakout sophomore campaign in 2020 that saw Garrett Wilson earn a 34% dominator rating - which considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a player commands within their offense - at 20 years old, the Ohio State product ran it back in impressive fashion in 2021.
The Buckeye scored 12 receiving touchdowns, compiled over 1,000 receiving yards and generated the FBS' 12th-highest passer rating when targeted (141.7). He also proved to NFL teams that he was more than just a shifty slot receiver, averaging 3.00 yards per route run despite operating on the outside on 83% of his routes run, which nearly matched his same yards per route run average from 2020 when he spent most of his time inside. And although Wilson's 2021 24% dominator rating was less than his sophomore campaign, that's really due to Ohio State's talent in the wide receiver room. He was competing for targets with senior Chris Olave and sophomore standout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the nation in PFF receiving grade (91.7). Going beyond the box score reveals that Wilson is a versatile route runner who can align anywhere on the field and still win. He was selected by the New York Jets 10th overall and joins a somewhat crowded WR room. And nobody can be sure Zach Wilson can support one or multiple fantasy assets. There are definitely question marks. However, Wilson is worth betting on because he's shown the ability at Ohio State to command targets and produce in an offense littered with other elite talents. Doesn't hurt his chance that he was deemed open on 84% of his targets last season. |
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122.
Jakobi Meyers
WR - NE (at BUF)
Jakobi Meyers is easily the most slept on wide receiver in fantasy football. The former undrafted free agent has been the Patriots target leader for the past two seasons, with his most recent accomplishment finishing top-12 in target share (23%) in 2021.
The high-end target share also aligned with Meyer's deployment in the Patriots passing attack, where Meyers was running a route on 92% of team dropbacks - the sixth-highest mark in the league. New England's No. 1 receiver just needs to cash-in on more touchdowns to unlock his fantasy ceiling. He has been extremely underused in that category; his 866 receiving yards resulting in two touchdowns were the lowest of any WR in 2021. |
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123.
George Pickens
WR - PIT (vs . CLE)
The Steelers selected George Pickens at pick No. 52 in the 2022 NFL Draft, with WR3 an area of need and Diontae Johnson (slated for free agency in 2023. I absolutely love the fit for Pickens here with the Steelers, who seem to never miss selecting wideouts on Day 2.
Injuries and off-field issues plagued Pickens' draft stock, but he looks fully healthy based on his testing at the NFL Combine. And Pittsburgh seems like the right spot for him to get his head on straight. I already can't wait for the heated training camp fights between him and Chase Claypool as the gloves come off - well not really - for target supremacy. Pickens' college profile screams that of a true alpha, so I'd be looking to stash him across the board before he is fully unleashed. The Georgia Bulldog WR broke out as a true 18-year old freshman, finishing 2019 as PFF's the 17th-highest-graded receiver in the nation (88.0) - ahead of future NFL wideouts like Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. |
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124.
Tua Tagovailoa
QB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Somebody on the Miami Dolphins is in for a rude awakening come September. Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are all being pushed up the rankings/draft boards with hopes that Tua Tagovailoa takes a massive step forward in Year 3 under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel.
I am not as optimistic that Tagovailoa can be the vehicle to deliver fantasy goodness to all these pieces in South Beach because this offense is going to be run-heavy. McDaniel made his way up the coaching ranks under Kyle Shanahan as a standout run-game coordinator. And should he follow in the footsteps of Shanahan as the offensive mastermind in Miami, fantasy managers should expect a lot of rushing and YAC schemes. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior. Tagovailoa's aDOT was 34th in the league (7.6) in 2021. Jimmy G's most productive seasons have seen him average just north of 16 fantasy points per game - good for QB17 in 2021. Tagovailoa has yet to eclipse 14 fantasy points per game two years into his career. He also ranked 31st in throwing at the intermediate level (62.5 PFF grade) among 37 qualifying passers last season. So although Tua is viewed as a popular late-round quarterback among fantasy circles, I have to admit I won't be pulling the trigger on him in 1QB redraft formats. Especially with his brutal early schedule. New England, Baltimore and Buffalo are hardly the stream-worthy spots you will be confident in starting the southpaw QB. In the Dolphins quarterback's four combined starts versus those teams in 2021, his fantasy finishes were QB23, QB24, QB18 and QB16. |
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125.
Khalil Herbert
RB - CHI (vs . MIN)
Khalil Herbert should enter camp with a leg up on the competition to be David Montgomery's backup. Last year in four games as the lead back when Montgomery was down, he was the RB40, RB11, RB6, and RB33 in fantasy. Among backs with 100 or more rushing attempts, he was 25th in yards after contact per attempt, ranking immediately ahead of Antonio Gibson. With a new regime at the helm, Herbert could be the guy if Montgomery misses any time, but don't rule out Trestan Ebner getting involved.
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126.
Hunter Henry
TE - NE (at BUF)
Hunter Henry emerged as Mac Jones' No. 1 red-zone weapon in his first year with the New England Patriots, finishing second in end-zone targets (13) and tying for first in red-zone touchdowns (9) with Mark Andrews.
But Henry's dependency on scoring touchdowns for fantasy made his production extremely volatile with just a 14% target share (13th). In seven of his games he finished as a top-12 tight end. In the other eight games, he finished outside the top-18. |
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127.
Skyy Moore
WR - KC (at LV)
Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore is being undervalued versus other Round 1 rookie WRs because he was a second-round pick as the 13th wide receiver selected in the draft. But Moore has a chance to hit the ground running in the post-Tyreek Hill era, competing for targets with fellow newcomers Juju Smith Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His impressive YAC ability - tied for first with 26 forced missed tackles in 2021 - and ability to play both inside/outside helps him stand out from the other Chiefs WRs. With Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, Moore could smash his current ECR into the stratosphere. It's not that outlandish to think a second-rounder can make an immediate impact considering six of the 12 highest-scoring Round 1 & 2 rookie WRs selected since 2017 were second-rounders.
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128.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - KC (at LV)
Just less than a day after trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, the Chiefs have signed his replacement Marquez Valdes-Scantling. It's a three-year deal worth up to $36 million. Essentially the same money that Russell Gage got from the Buccaneers and what Zay Jones got from Jacksonville.
The ex-Packers field stretcher has ranked inside the top-5 in yards per reception over the last two seasons, so he will feel right at home catching bombs from Patrick Mahomes. He is sure to experience spiked weeks of production attached to the Chiefs' big-armed quarterback, but valuing him more than a weekly boom-or-bust fantasy WR3/4 would be malpractice. MVS does get a bump up in the WR rankings with a slight upgrade at QB and the opportunity to see a larger target share, but I wouldn't view him too dissimilarly to how he was perceived in Green Bay for the past four seasons. He has never commanded 75 targets in a season. His 2022 wide receiver ranking is comfortably behind JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore. |
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129.
Justin Fields
QB - CHI (vs . MIN)
Justin Fields closed the season out with a promising stretch run as a top ten fantasy quarterback in each of his final four full starts. Fields showed growth in this quartet of games, completing 62.5% of his passes with 7.6 yards per attempt. The rushing is what we covet with the Windy City signal-caller, and we got a look at that as well, as he averaged 64.2 yards per game on the ground. Losing Allen Robinson hurts even more, with the team replacing him with Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Velus Jones. The massive weekly upside is still in the cards for Fields with his playmaking ability, but he's tough to trust as anything more than a QB2 or matchup play, considering the cast of characters surrounding him.
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130.
Russell Gage
WR - TB (at ATL)
With the arrival of Julio Jones, the runway for Russell Gage isn't as clear as it once was. Chris Godwin's health reports returning with positive marks also muddies the water even more. Gage is a talented player who has the talent to take on a major role in this offense, but it's impossible to predict that now outside of Godwin missing time or a Julio Jones injury. Last year Gage was 17th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) and 12th in route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com). With his target share in limbo, Gage has gone from a WR2/WR3 candidate to a WR4 with a possibly huge upside.
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131.
J.D. McKissic
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
In fantasy, J.D. McKissic has stacked back-to-back seasons of top 36 running back production (RB25, RB28). The Commanders are hell-bent on capping Antonio Gibson's ceiling, but you can't fault them because McKissic remains one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. Last season he ranked fourth in target share and yards per route run among running backs. McKissic could see a hit to his raw volume and touchdown expectations (which were already low) if Brian Robinson gets involved on early downs and even a smidge in the passing game when he returns. Because of this, McKissic is best viewed as an RB4 with some upside.
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132.
Raheem Mostert
RB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Raheem Mostert will also be 30 years old by the season's start. He has played 16 games once and never started more than 8 games in a season.
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133.
David Njoku
TE - CLE (at PIT)
Franchise-tagged tight end David Njoku has a golden opportunity to break out in 2022 with Deshaun Watson and Jacoby Brissett as his quarterbacks after an encouraging 2021. He set career highs in PFF grade (70.9, 10th), yards per route run (1.56, 8th), and yards after the catch per reception (7.0, first) among tight ends that commanded at least 50 targets in 2021.
The Browns also released Austin Hooper, which should open up the opportunity for the athletic Njoku to take a major leap. Don't be too quick to forget that Njoku already as a top-10 TE finish on his career resume. And with Brissett under center for the first six weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see Njoku lead this team in targets. Former Colts tight end Jack Doyle led the Colts in targets/receptions in the seasons started by Brissett a few years ago, which suggests that Njoku could be a prime buy-low target. The Browns offense ranks top-three in target share to TEs over the past two seasons under head coach Stefanski. |
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134.
Irv Smith Jr.
TE - MIN (at CHI)
Assuming Irv Smith is at full health to start the season, he could compete with Adam Thielen as the second target in Minnesota behind Justin Jefferson. Let's not forget that Smith was eighth in yards per target and second in QBR when targeted among tight ends in 2020. The Vikings surprised everyone by ranking 12th in neutral passing rate and eighth in neutral pace last year. If that repeats, the volume will be there for Smith. As an unrestricted free agent in 2023, Smith should be heavily motivated to post career-best numbers.
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135.
Michael Gallup
WR - DAL (at WAS)
Michael Gallup is questionable to start the season at full strength. Gallup has been a run-of-the-mill receiver in three of his four NFL seasons, with yards per route run totals ranging between 1.32-1.37 outside of his breakout 2019 season (per PFF). Gallup is a risky WR4/WR5 type.
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136.
Trevor Lawrence
QB - JAC (vs . TEN)
Joe Burrow's massive second-year jump is encouraging for this year's second-year QBs like Trevor Lawrence. The Jags quarterback finished with the same expected fantasy points per game average as Burrow in 2021 (17.3) but underwhelmed tremendously in a poor situation. His -72.3 fantasy points versus expectation were the most of any QB in 2021.
Lawrence posted a season-high 85.1 PFF passing grade in the season-finale, offering some hope that he can turn things around in 2022 with a new coaching staff in place. There's a strong chance that Jacksonville dials up the passing attempts with Doug Pederson calling the shots on offense. During his five-year tenure in Philadelphia, only once did the offense not finish top-10 in pass attempts. |
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137.
Jamaal Williams
RB - DET (at GB)
Last season in the early going, Jamaal Williams was the understudy to D'Andre Swift, which is a role he will reprise this season. In Weeks 1-7, he averaged 12.4 touches and 58.7 total yards per game playing 29-49% of snaps per game. He was the RB37 in fantasy points per game. When Swift was out and Williams was active, he played 42-47% of snaps with 18 rushing attempts and 74 rushing yards per game. Williams isn't the sexiest handcuff or late-round selection, but the Lions' offense should take another step forward this year, and Williams will be the primary back if Swift were to miss time again.
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138.
DeVante Parker
WR - NE (at BUF)
2021 was a typical season for DeVante Parker. The former first-round pick had at least seven targets in seven of his nine game played, scoring double-digit fantasy points in more than half of them. He averaged 12.9 expected fantasy points per game through 17 weeks (28th).
His acquisition by the Patriots helps shore up the need for a big-bodied wide receiver on the perimeter that can make plays downfield. But the extent of how high a target share Parker will command remains to be seen. If anything, he probably has the most touchdown upside of the New England Patriots WRs. Just don't be overly bullish on him being available all season-long, as his injury history proceeds him. His 1.48 yards per route run was also his worst mark since 2018 as was his 55% catch rate. |
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139.
Jahan Dotson
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
Jahan Dotson should immediately start in two wide receiver sets opposite Terry McLaurin. Dotson's 90th percentile college dominator and 95th percentile target share while at Penn State illuminate the caliber of player he is. The Commanders' passing rate could cap Dotson's ceiling this year if the coaching staff comes to the same realization that the Colts did. That Carson Wentz is nothing more than a glorified game manager at this point in his career. As erratic as Wentz is, Dotson should enjoy an upgrade over the collegiate quarterback play he suffered through. The lone bright spot for Wentz is if Dotson can use his speed to get loose deep, Wentz should be able to hit him in stride. Wentz was fourth in deep-ball accuracy last season.
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140.
Albert Okwuegbunam
TE - DEN (vs . LAC)
Albert Okwuegbunam tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season (23%). Now entrenched as the presumed full-time starter with Noah Fant traded to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, the uber-athletic tight end can break out in Year 3.
It bodes well in Albert O's favor that Noah Fant finished last season as the TE12 while the duo played in 14 games together. |
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141.
Julio Jones
WR - TB (at ATL)
Julio Jones might not be the same player he was during his prime, but he's definitely not washed up. Last year Jones ranked 25th out of 90 wide receivers (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) in yards per route run (1.84). For added context, this was immediately ahead of Stefon Diggs and Diontae Johnson. Yes, this was also his career's lowest yards per route run, but even a watered-down version of Jones isn't a scrub. Now add that he's being air-dropped into one of the league's fastest, most pass-happy, and highest scoring offenses, and Jones becomes a magical upside ticket depending on where the market settles on him.
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142.
Jarvis Landry
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
Jarvis Landry earned targets at a high rate last season in Cleveland, ranking 16th in targets per snap. If Michael Thomas isn't healthy, Landry could easily do this again in 2022, competing against Chris Olave, Marquez Callaway, Tre'Quan Smith, and Deonte Harty. He showed that he had some gas left in the tank in 2021, finishing 28th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) and 22nd in yards after the catch per reception.
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143.
Rondale Moore
WR - ARI (at SF)
The target waters for Rondale Moore are muddy entering his second season. The bull case for Arizona's slot Mighty Mouse is that he drew targets at a high rate when on the field in 2021, and he was successful in making plays with them. Moore was third among all wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). He also ranked 28th in route win rate and 30th in targets per snap. This is a perfect time to buy the dip for a talented second-year wide receiver.
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144.
Mike Gesicki
TE - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Mike Gesicki may see his target numbers dip in 2022 in a run-heavy offense alongside target magnets Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. That will make his 2021 production difficult to replicate.
The tight end/slot receiver hybrid finished sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, fourth in route participation (78%), and fifth in target share (17%) through 18 weeks of action of the 2021 season. This receiving and route volume led to only moderate success in fantasy football, as Mike Gesicki finished as TE9. His efficiency metrics left something to be desired, though - he was 13th in fantasy points per game (9.9) and 15th in yards per route run. Part of that does fall on the up-and-down quarterback play, but it just further cements Gesicki as a good, not great tight end in fantasy football. My biggest concern is that Gesicki has almost always underwhelmed after the catch - which will likely be a large part of the Dolphins new-look offense. His 3.2 YAC/reception ranked 41st of out 42 qualifying tight ends. Gesicki did deliver worthwhile fantasy production at times, as displayed by his TE6 standing from Weeks 3-15 (11.5 fantasy points per game). And 94% of his snaps came lined up in the slot or out wide in 2021, which is another advantage for creating mismatches. But all in all, he tends to only rise to the occasion for fantasy purposes when targets become available in the offense because of injuries to other players. The athletic tight end will end up meeting his mid-range 2022 ADP/ECR based on his consistent play the past two seasons, but won't enter the top-tier fantasy tight end conversation. |
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145.
Tyler Allgeier
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
Tyler Allgeier has been tossed into a backfield with aging and unimpressive parts, where he could ultimately take over the lead role. Allgeier closed out his career at BYU with a pummeling 275 carry season that he turned into 1,611 rushing yards. Allgeier shined with 4.16 yards after contact, ranking tenth among all FBS running backs with 100 or more carries last season (per PFF). Sadly he bombed his athletic testing and fell in the draft before Atlanta scooped him up. Atlanta may lean on this young volume rusher, but it's also conceivable that Patterson and Damien Williams eat into the rushing pie enough to render Allgeier an afterthought.
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146.
D.J. Chark Jr.
WR - DET (at GB)
D.J. Chark is likely a better NFL signing than an addition to your fantasy squad. Chark has eclipsed 1.50 yards per route run in only one season (2019), so expecting him to enter this target tree and contend for the top option is asking a lot. His ability to stretch the field is real, as he's finished with a 119.4 or higher passer rating on deep throws in two of the last three seasons. If the Lions sustain injuries to their depth chart, Chark has shown the ability to lead a passing attack, but outside of that scenario, he's best viewed as a matchup flex play.
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147.
Rachaad White
RB - TB (at ATL)
Despite inking Leonard Fournette to a new three-year deal, resigning Giovani Bernard, and still having incumbent Ke'Shawn Vaughn on the roster, the team spent a third-round draft pick on Rachaad White. White followed up his final season at Arizona State, where he racked up 3.38 yards after contact per attempt and 2.25 yards per route run (ninth, minimum 20 targets per PFF) by blowing up the combine. White finished with an 84th percentile speed score and 87th percentile burst score. This looks like a crowded backfield on paper, but the team has shown the willingness to utilize one back as a do-it-all rusher and receiver. This would leave White as the Uncle Len backup plan with workhorse upside if the injury bug bit Fournette.
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148.
Jameis Winston
QB - NO (vs . CAR)
Last year the Saints put the handcuffs on YOLO Jameis Winston. They ran a slow as molasses offense, relying on their run game and limiting Winston to 25.2 pass attempts and 185.7 passing yards per game. This could easily be the case again in 2022, but there are some reasons for optimism here. Winston will be entering his third season of this offensive scheme, so he should know it inside and out by now. Hopefully, the Saints can keep Michael Thomas healthy to pair with Chris Olave. Jarvis Landry is arguably one of the best WR3s in the NFL. This cast of weapons with Alvin Kamara also on board could lead to more passing attempts that we didn't see in 2021.
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149.
Gerald Everett
TE - LAC (at DEN)
Gerald Everett was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.
Everett proved he can be a featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch - sixth-most among tight ends. His peripheral metrics in Seattle's offense - 12% target share, 63% route participation and 17% target rate per route run - were nearly identical to Jared Cook on the Chargers offense last season. Cook finished as TE16 overall which seems like Everett's fantasy floor heading into 2022. The tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook's average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1). L.A. ranked third in that category last season (39.6). Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season's star at the position. |
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150.
Matt Ryan
QB - IND (vs . HOU)
After spending his entire 14-year NFL career with the Atlanta Falcons, Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts in his 15th season. Atlanta traded Matt Ryan to the Colts for a 2022 third-round pick.
It's a major upgrade for Ryan's fantasy appeal that he was able to get out of Atlanta - a franchise that looks to be in a massive rebuild. Last season, Ryan lacked a strong supporting cast which contributed to his lackluster numbers. Calvin Ridley played five games, and the Falcons owned the league's second-worst blocking offensive line per PFF. Ryan faced pressure at the sixth-highest rate (40%). That won't be the case in Indianapolis with a better offensive line in place, a stable running game, and playmakers like Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor to boot. Ryan was also vastly underrated as a passer despite the ongoing turmoil ranking above average in many of PFF's sticky efficiency metrics in 2021: 12th in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket, second throwing at the intermediate level, and ninth throwing on early downs. Entering a Frank Reich system that prides itself on churning out play-action (5th) and screen passes (10th) will make Ryan's life a helluva lot easier than it was in Atlanta. Ryan ranked 33rd in screen throw rate and 12th in play-action rate in 2021. The new Colts quarterback is back on the fantasy QB2 radar for 2022. |
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151.
Nico Collins
WR - HOU (at IND)
Nico Collins commanded end-zone targets and high air-yard throws in 2021 but ultimately never put together a true breakout game. He finished behind Brandin Cooks in air yards and all other receiving categories. Still, he should open the 2022 season at worst as the de facto No. 2 option for up-and-coming second-year quarterback Davis Mills.
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152.
Tyler Higbee
TE - LAR (at SEA)
Since his legendary stretch run in 2019, Tyler Higbee has been a ho-hum option in fantasy football. Over the last two seasons, he's finished as the TE13 and TE20 in fantasy points per game. His yards per route run dipped to 1.23 (25th amongst tight ends) last year, which isn't a trend you want to see out of a fringe (at best) top 12-15 option at tight end. With Allen Robinson in town and Van Jefferson returning to compete for targets behind Cooper Kupp, the arrow for Higbee is pointing down. He's nothing more than a streaming option in 2022.
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153.
Robert Tonyan
TE - GB (vs . DET)
This season, Robert Tonyan could reenter the top ten tight end realm if his health complies. Tonyan is recovering from a torn ACL, but the Packer's receiving hierarchy is wide open after Davante Adams' departure. In 2020, Tonyan ranked tenth in yards per route run during his breakout season, but he was only 24th in receiving yards per game (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). He'll have to pick it up in the volume and yardage departments because repeating 11 receiving touchdowns (tied for the most among tight ends with Travis Kelce) is a lofty goal.
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154.
Noah Fant
TE - SEA (vs . LAR)
Noah Fant will find it tough to log a third straight season as a top 12 fantasy tight end this year, catching passes from Geno Smith or Drew Lock. Fant was the TE12 and TE11 in fantasy points per game over the last two years. Fant's unreal athleticism carried him to 12th in yards per route run at the position last year (minimum 20 targets, per PFF), but it's unlikely to overcome a putrid offense this season. With the offense likely to struggle to put up points weekly with replacement-level quarterback play, Fant is best viewed as a TE2 option.
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155.
Ryan Tannehill
QB - TEN (at JAC)
A.J. Brown's absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill's fantasy success as a Titan. Even with Treylon Burks in the fold, it's hard to get overly excited about the Tennessee QB in one of the NFL's most run-heavy offenses devoid of any elite, proven pass-catchers. He got exposed without offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and weapons last season in 2021, finishing the season with his lowest passer rating to date as a Titan (88.1, 23rd). Tannehill's passer rating off play action throws also fell off (96.1 versus 109.5). 2022 is going to be a rude awakening for Tannehill, who has the largest cap hit in the NFL this year ($38.6M).
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156.
Evan Engram
TE - JAC (vs . TEN)
Evan Engram's PFF receiving grade has declined over the last four seasons, bottoming out in 2021 at 54.9 - 40th among 44 qualifying tight ends.
And he hasn't disappointed due to a lack of opportunities, either. He finished top-15 in route participation (68%) and had almost zero competition for targets with injuries to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard. Alas, Engram failed to command any worthwhile target share with his abysmal 14% target rate per route run. So consider me slightly hesitant to buy into Engram breaking out in 2022 because his new head coach has a history of featuring tight ends. Sure, it works in Engram's favor, but last I checked Dan Arnold is still on the team. And Doug Pederson has also been known to heavily feature two tight ends in his offense, which doesn't always translate to fantasy success. |
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157.
Austin Hooper
TE - TEN (at JAC)
Austin Hooper signed with the Titans this offseason after being cut loose by the Cleveland Browns. The formerly highest-paid tight end in the league has seen his fantasy stock crash since leaving the Falcons, finishing back-to-back seasons outside the top-20 in TE scoring. Even as the perceived starter in Nashville, Hooper has an extremely low-ceiling in the Titans' run-heavy offense. Despite all the injuries last season, no tight end on TEN saw 45 targets or a greater than 10% target share.
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158.
Joshua Palmer
WR - LAC (at DEN)
Mike Williams' return to the Chargers in free agency puts a slight damper on the sophomore breakout for Josh Palmer. But, there's still fantasy appeal to rostering the No. 3 option in a Justin Herbert-led offense.
As a rookie, Palmer averaged over seven targets per game and scored a touchdown in his three games with a 60% snap share. He was also extremely efficient in the end zone, catching three of his five total end-zone targets for TDs. His separation skills - 71st percentile, equal to Keenan Allen and 92nd percentile vs single coverage - further showcase his versatility. |
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159.
Kenny Golladay
WR - NYG (at PHI)
At age 28, it's fair to wonder if Kenny Golladay has hit the age apex wall. Last year Golladay saw his yards per route run dip to 1.36 as he finished 74th in route win rate. Improved play calling should help Golladay, but Brian Daboll can't run Golladay's routes for him. Golladay is cooked if his declining efficiency continues and his catchable target rate (87th) doesn't improve from Daniel Jones.
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160.
Zamir White
RB - LV (vs . KC)
You can take Josh McDaniels out of New England, but you can't take the New England out of McDaniels. He found his new early down grinder in waiting from the SEC in the draft this year in Zamir White. This season, White should be viewed as the early down handcuff to Josh Jacobs. While White is a former five-star prospect, injuries have zapped him of his once special juice. He ranked 39th in yards after contact per attempt and 138th in breakaway rate last season (minimum 100 carries, per PFF). Despite residing in what we project to be a good offense, with limited burst and pass game upside, White is a last-round dart throw at best.
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161.
K.J. Osborn
WR - MIN (at CHI)
Minnesota Vikings WR K.J. Osborn flashed at times during the 2021 season, but never more so than when he filled in for Adam Thielen. From Weeks 13-17, the second-year pro averaged 12 half-PPR fantasy points per game to go along with six targets.
He also cracked starting lineups as a fantasy WR3 at 44% clip and posted just one fewer top-24 finish than his veteran teammate during the entire 2021 season. If Thielen starts to break down entering his age 32-season, Osborn would be the prime benefactor in a more pass-happy, fantasy-friendly and 11-personell Vikings offense under new head coach and play caller Kevin O'Connell. The Rams ran 11-personnel at a league-high 86% of offensive plays last season; Minnesota ran 11-personnel at the fifth-lowest rate in the league. |
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162.
Mark Ingram II
RB - NO (vs . CAR)
By NFL standards, Mark Ingram might be elderly, but he isn't washed up. Last year when he was called upon to carry the load in the Big Easy, he stepped up. In his three games as the lead back, he averaged 18 touches and 95 total yards finishing as the RB24, RB8, and RB15. He ranked 27th in yards after contact per attempt, immediately ahead of James Conner and Alvin Kamara (minimum 100 rushing attempts, per PFF). After his return to New Orleans, he posted 1.31 yards per route run which would have ranked 25th last year among all running backs with 20 or more targets (per PFF).
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163.
Daniel Jones
QB - NYG (at PHI)
Daniel Jones finished last year as the QB17 in fantasy points per game, but his rushing (298 yards, 11 games) was a decent part of that production. As a passer, he still struggled, ranking outside the top 20 at his position in pressured accuracy, catchable pass rate, and true completion rate. Jones better hope Brian Daboll has the secret sauce to get him on track because it's not looking good. This year, Jones is a matchup play that I'll happily leave on the waiver wire in 12-team formats.
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164.
Buffalo Bills
DST - BUF (vs . NE)
Buffalo's D is slightly overrated from last year. To open the season, they get the Rams and Titans - two offenses that aren't exactly the prime matchups you'd expect from the No.1-ranked DST. Still, they rank inside the top-5 after boasting the league's No. 1 pressure rate per dropback with Von Miller added into the fold.
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165.
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR - NYG (at PHI)
Wan'Dale Robinson concluded his career at Kentucky with a 98th percentile college target share and 95th percentile breakout age (per Playerprofiler.com). Last year he was 18th in yards per route run and 13th in receiving yards from the slot (minimum 20 slot targets, per PFF). He'll compete for targets in year one for targets against Kadarius Toney, dusty Kenny Golladay, and Sterling Shepard, who is recovering from an Achilles tendon rupture. It doesn't take a wild imagination to envision Robinson taking over the slot role and leading the team in targets this season. He's an upside later-round flier in all formats.
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166.
Robbie Anderson
WR - CAR (at NO)
Robby Anderson resembled a wide receiver near the line's end last season. Despite ranking 27th in targets and seventh in routes run, Anderson stumbled to a WR56 finish in weekly fantasy scoring. He finished as a top 36 wide receiver in only four games last year. After ranking 94th in yards per route run and 56th in route win rate, there are better late-round darts you can toss this year
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167.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DST - TB (at ATL)
It's a tough first four games for the Buccaneers DST to start the season. On the road versus a high-powered Dallas offense followed by a Divisonal road matchup versus the Saints, who have owned Tampa during the regular season. After that, it's home versus a non-turnover prone Aaron Rodgers and then Kansas City.
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168.
Mac Jones
QB - NE (at BUF)
The rookie quarterback was highly efficient as a passer, finishing 18th in PFF passing grade, throwing 10-19 yards, 13th from a clean pocket and 10th on early downs. Those specific metrics tend to be sticky year over year and more predictive than raw counting stats.
Still, those numbers were equally impressive for Jones, who posted the sixth-highest passer rating (92.5) and second-highest completion percentage (67.6%) for a rookie quarterback with at least 300 attempts in NFL history. |
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169.
San Francisco 49ers
DST - SF (vs . ARI)
You want the 49ers defense in fantasy football drafts. Their two first matchups - Chicago, Seattle - should allow them up to dial up pressure on fringy QBs. They were PFF's 4th-highest graded pass-rush unit a season ago and added USC pass-rusher Drake Jackson in the second round of the draft.
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170.
Corey Davis
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
Corey Davis has an opt-out in his contract in 2023, so the writing is on the wall about his future in Gang Green. The team has invested high-end draft capital in WRs in the last two drafts, with their latest pick in Garrett Wilson profiling as someone that could line up in Davis' spot on the perimeter.
Still, Davis probably will be a starter to open the season, and he showed chemistry with Zach Wilson before he got hurt in 2021. The former Titan was the WR25 in half-point scoring with a 21% target share. He never played a game with fewer than 5 targets through his first six games. |
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171.
Hayden Hurst
TE - CIN (vs . BAL)
Bengals tight end Hayden Hurst is hardly a world-beater, but it's hard to not view him as a winner post-draft. The former Falcon is in sole possession of C.J. Uzomah's vacated role from last season offers some fantasy appeal.
Uzomah's 78% route participation ranked fourth-highest among tight ends in 2021 Every-down tight ends on the field that often in high-scoring environments will stumble into fantasy scoring. It's a highly coveted role primed to ooze fantasy points. However, being on the field doesn't always translate to the requisite fantasy production especially in offenses loaded with other weapons. Uzomah's 13% target rate per route run ranked last among tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2021. Hurst's 15% target rate wasn't much better. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence that Hurst is the clear-cut late-round tight end to target in 2022, but he is well worth targeting late in drafts. Hurst is just one year removed from a TE9 overall finish in 2020. |
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172.
Mecole Hardman
WR - KC (at LV)
Mecole Hardman will see an expanded role after the Tyreek Hill trade, but too often he has failed to fire when asked to take a step forward in the No. 1 WR's absence.
The Chiefs adding a plethora of WRs in free agency along with second-rounder Skyy Moore in the NFL Draft hints they aren't expecting a massive leap for Hardman. My advice is to not get overly aggressive drafting a player that has yet to rid the role of a gadget player since entering the league. Because although the thought of a speedy wide receiver attached to Patrick Mahomes is enticing the on-field production really has not been there for Hardman even from a spiked-weeked perspective. Case in point, he has finished a a top-18 weekly WR in PPR once in three years to go along with a handful of 18-20th overall finishes. |
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173.
Isaiah McKenzie
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
Isaiah McKenzie looked primed to take on the starting slot role after the team moved on from Cole Beasley. After all, McKenzie showed up big-time in his last two starts with Beasley sidelined.
But the dream of a full-time role for McKenzie will have to wait after the team signed former Jets slot wide receiver Jamison Crowder (WR - BUF) to a one-year $4M deal. He is making almost as much money in 2021 alone as McKenzie is over two years ($4.4M). Needless to say, Crowder will likely be the Day 1 starter in the slot and fantasy gamers will have to wait for another injury for McKenzie to see a fantasy-worthy role. Remember this coaching staff is the same unit that played 33-year-old Emmanuel Sanders (WR - BUF) over Gabriel Davis (WR - BUF) for 80% of the 2021 season. I don't doubt they will do the same with Crowder and McKenzie in 2022. |
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174.
Marvin Jones Jr.
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Marvin Jones' recent track record is super solid, averaging 950 receiving yards and 8 TDs over the past three seasons - including last season when he finished WR35 in total points. But his efficiency was horrible in the disaster that was the Jags in 2021; he averaged just 9.9 points per game. Good for WR51. Woof.
Entering his age-32 season it remains to be seen whether Jones can keep up his steady production in a brand new offense with new pieces littered throughout. However, the fact that he will be starter on the outside in a pass-happy offense is not being considered enough in his WR78 ADP. He's hardly a breakout candidate by any means, but his 120 targets and 19% target share from Trevor Lawrence last season due lend some credence that he's priced at his absolute floor, with WR3 range very realistic with his projected full-time role. His 17 end-zone targets last season ranked fourth-most among all players in 2021. |
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175.
Jared Goff
QB - DET (at GB)
This season, Jared Goff is a sneaky streamer or QB2 option for Superflex leagues. The artillery cupboard is full to the brim with D.J. Chark, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, and D'Andre Swift all at his disposal. After Week 11 last year, the Lions increased their passing rate to 55% (20th) in close games, and Goff responded with some efficient outings. He completed 69.5% of his throws in that five-game sample while throwing for multiple touchdowns four times (three passing touchdowns twice). You might have to pinch your nose when you press the draft button, but you could be smelling roses a few weeks into the season.
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176.
Logan Thomas
TE - WAS (vs . DAL)
Logan Thomas is on the comeback trail after a torn ACL in 2021. The problem for Thomas is that even assuming he's fully healthy in 2022, the path to repeating his TE5 in fantasy points per game finish (2020) will be difficult. Thomas hasn't been an efficient player as a starting tight end, ranking 41st and 22nd in yards per route run in each of the last two seasons (minimum 20 targets per PFF). With the addition of Carson Wentz, the team could easily be a run-oriented squad. If that doesn't come to fruition, the return of J.D. McKissic, the addition of Jahan Dotson, and the possible resurrection of Curtis Samuel could severely dent his 2022 outlook and target expectations.
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177.
Indianapolis Colts
DST - IND (vs . HOU)
The Colts are likely due for some defensive regression with all the turnover they had on that side of the ball this offseason, but it's hard to ignore their two juicy matchups to start the year: @HOU and @JAC.
They are definitely worth drafting if you can't get a better option, but don't view them as an elite unit. Two road Divisonal games may not be as easy as they look on paper. Indy also tied Dallas with the highest turnover differential in 2021, despite ranking 31st in pressure rate (18%). |
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178.
Brian Robinson Jr.
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
The dependable 6'2" 224 lb Brian Robinson landed in Washington in the third round of the NFL Draft. Robinson bided his time behind many talented backs at Alabama before finally taking over in 2021 as the lead guy. He responded by ranking fourth in missed tackles and eighth in ten-plus yard runs last year (per PFF). Robinson might not wow people, but he's s battle-tested and sure-handed depth player. After Antonio Gibson's butter fingers cropped up again in the preseason, Robinson was on his way to supplanting him as the lead back. Then tragedy struck. Robinson sustained multiple gunshot wounds in an attempted robbery. While none of his injuries were stated as life-threatening, his rookie season has been left in limbo.
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179.
New Orleans Saints
DST - NO (vs . CAR)
The Saints still possess a top-tier defense, and therefore should not be overlooked with a cakewalk of easy matchups. Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Carolina round out New Orleans' first 3 games. Two are against pushovers at QB, while Tampa is a matchup the Saints have dominated since TB12's arrival. In four regular season games versus Brady's Buccaneers, the Saints have never scored fewer than 16 fantasy points.
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180.
Justin Tucker
K - BAL (at CIN)
Justin Tucker rebounded after a "bad" season in 2020 when averaged 9.1 fantasy points per game as the K7. He finished 2021 as the K2 with the No. 1 FG% (95%). Arguably already the best kicker in the history of the NFL, Tucker is by far the safest bet to return top-3 fantasy kicker status, making him worthy of the No. 1 ranking. Since 2016, he's finished outside the top-4 once (2020).
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181.
Carson Wentz
QB - WAS (vs . DAL)
The Commanders will learn the same thing that the Colts did last year. Carson Wentz can manage a game, but don't ask him to lift up your passing attack. Wentz was 20th in clean pocket completion and 32nd in catchable pass rates. Washington was 11th in neutral rushing rate last year, which could creep even higher in 2022.
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182.
Denver Broncos
DST - DEN (vs . LAC)
The Broncos fit all the criteria you are looking for a draft-able fantasy DST. They boast an elite real-life defense that features the likes of Randy Gregory, Bradley Chubb and Pat Surtain II. Denver will pose problems for their two first opponents: Seattle and Houston.
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183.
Isaiah Spiller
RB - LAC (at DEN)
The Chargers are no strangers to taking shots on bigger but unathletic running backs on Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Joshua Kelley was the guy in 2020 and Larry Rountree was the guy in 2021.
Isaiah Spiller represents the latest rehash of the Chargers trying to find an appropriate thunder to Austin Ekeler's lightning, and I for one think Spiller is already the best bet currently on the roster. The former Texas A&M running back has the capacity for three-down spot start duties with an all-encompassing skill set and desirable size - 6-feet and 217 pounds . Spiller should be a solid producer for the Chargers if given the opportunity although his lack of top-notch speed could keep him from being elite. He had only eight carries of 20-plus yards in 2021. But I'd be hard-pressed to ignore his impressive age-adjusted production as one of his most encouraging traits. Since Day 1 at Texas A&M, Spiller has been the lead dog for the Aggies. As a true freshman in 2019, he scored 10 rushing touchdowns and finished 16th in the nation in yards after contact per attempt en route to a 22% dominator rating. The power running back capped off his first year in impressive fashion with back-to-back seasons of 1,000 rushing yards and 100 missed tackles. Spiller also displayed receiving prowess, commanding at least an 8% target share and an average of 25 receptions per season. With Justin Jackson still an unsigned free agent, Spiller looks slated for instant impact in Year 1. |
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184.
Van Jefferson
WR - LAR (at SEA)
Last season, Van Jefferson showed some life, finishing with a career-high 802 receiving yards and six scores as the WR41 in fantasy points per game. Jefferson should reprise his field-stretching role for the Rams this year on the outside opposite Allen Robinson. Last year Jefferson was 11th in aDOT, but with a route, win rate ranked 91st, his ceiling games will be scattered despite Matthew Stafford's proclivity for going deep.
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185.
Baker Mayfield
QB - CAR (at NO)
Last season before Baker Mayfield reinjured the partially torn labrum in his left shoulder (Weeks 1-5), he was on his way to a solid if not underrated season in Cleveland. While he was on QB23 in fantasy points per game, his efficiency metrics painted a rosier picture. He was 14th in big-time throw rate, seventh in yards per attempt, and held the eighth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 20 dropbacks, per PFF).
While Carolina looks like a lousy landing spot, Mayfield will be flanked by Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, which isn't a bad start for any quarterback. If Ben McAdoo can recreate his former magic as an offensive coordinator, Mayfield could be an easy QB2 target with some upside. Before taking the head coaching reins in New York, he led an offense that was top 13 in yards and total points in back-to-back seasons. |
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186.
Los Angeles Rams
DST - LAR (at SEA)
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187.
Jalen Tolbert
WR - DAL (at WAS)
With Michael Gallup's health questions and underwhelming effectiveness and the departure of Amari Cooper, Jalen Tolbert can compete for the number two role behind CeeDee Lamb immediately with Dalton Schultz. Tolbert dominated at South Alabama with a 96th percentile college dominator and 95th percentile target share (33.4%). Over the last two seasons, he was seventh and sixth in receiving yards among all FBS wideouts. If he seizes the number two spot, he'll be a screaming value in fantasy football.
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188.
Romeo Doubs
WR - GB (vs . DET)
Romeo Doubs checks some prospect boxes I value. After four seasons at Nevada, he leaves with a 73rd percentile collegiate target share and 80th percentile breakout age. He is fresh off back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Doubs was 71st in yards per route run last year, which isn't eye-popping, but he was also 30th in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets). Building an early rapport with Aaron Rodgers could go a long way toward surpassing his fourth-round draft capital and emerging as a consistent NFL weapon.
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189.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
Jeff Wilson definitely has merit as a last-round selection as the RB2 on the 49ers' depth chart. When he's been called upon, he's been a productive volume back for San Francisco. Since 2020 he's played 50% or higher in seven games averaging 19.7 touches and finishing as a top 20 fantasy running back in 71% of those games.
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190.
Isiah Pacheco
RB - KC (at LV)
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191.
K.J. Hamler
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
K.J. Hamler possesses enticing upside as a speedy slot receiver that could be Russell Wilson's new version of Tyler Lockett, but he could be a total zero with his inability to stay healthy the past two seasons.
Had it not been for the two-touchdowns game versus Carolina back in 2020 - Hamler would probably be viewed closer to Parris Campbell despite the latter being an actual starter on his offense. |
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192.
Tyler Bass
K - BUF (vs . NE)
The hope for Tyler Bass is that the Bills offense isn't has effective in the red zone as they were a season ago. The Josh-Allen led offense ranked No.1 in RZ efficiency in 2021, which can be difficult to replicate year over year. That would set up Bass -- No. 3-ranked K in 2020 -- to recapture his elite fantasy form.
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193.
Alec Pierce
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
Alec Pierce earned solid Day 2 draft capital with the Indianapolis Colts, but I'd be hard-pressed to admit I like the landing spot with Matt Ryan. Pierce figures to slide-into that vertical field-stretching role for the Colts vacated by veteran T.Y. Hilton based on the rookie's speed and vertical profile from his college career at Cincinnati. But how valuable of a role is that with the team committed to both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. as the clear touch hogs of the offense. Not to mention, Ryan's deep ball rate (9.1%) ranked 32nd out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in 2021.
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194.
Christian Watson
WR - GB (vs . DET)
Christian Watson has the opportunity to become Aaron Rodgers' new bae. He'll have some catching up to do after missing nearly all of camp, but it's still in the range of outcomes for this season. His athleticism is a known commodity as he sports a 98th percentile speed score and 95th percentile burst score. Marrying Watson's immediate YAC ability with Rodgers will be a nice pairing. Watson has finished 12th, seventh, and 17th in the last three seasons in YAC per reception (among FCS and FBS wide receivers, minimum 50 targets per PFF).
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195.
New England Patriots
DST - NE (at BUF)
The Patriots tend to be one of the more reliable units from season-to-season - top-12 DST since 2018 - and 2022 is no different. They open up against Miami and Pittsburgh, who will feature QBs that should scare no fantasy GM.
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196.
Matt Gay
K - LAR (at SEA)
You can never go wrong drafting a dome kicker attached to a high-powered offense. That's the move behind Matt Gay, who hit a career-high 94% of his FGs in 2021 -- second only to Justin Tucker.
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197.
Jameson Williams
WR - DET (at GB)
Jameson Williams' early-season status is still up in the air, but one thing that's for certain is that once he hits the NFL field, he's a big play waiting to happen. Williams' electrifying speed helped him finish 13th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) with the fifth-most deep receiving yards in the nation last year. Outside of his health, Williams' biggest obstacle to a monster rookie season is Jared Goff, who was ninth in catchable pass rate but sadly 24th in deep accuracy.
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198.
Boston Scott
RB - PHI (vs . NYG)
Boston Scott was a touchdown magnet last year, rolling up seven scores with only 100 total touches. Touchdowns aren't sticky year to year, so this isn't something we should bank on when projecting Scott in 2022. Scott's efficiency on early downs was simply meh, as he ranked 50th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 75 carries, per PFF). While the backfield seems more streamlined for a weekly role for Scott with Jordan Howard gone, the Eagles could easily roll with a two-headed approach with Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell leading the way. Don't rule out Trey Sermon also working his way into the rotation. Scott is a player to monitor on the waiver wire unless injuries strike the Philly backfield.
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199.
Darrel Williams
RB - ARI (at SF)
Darrel Williams is not an efficient runner of the football, but he is exquisite in the passing game in 2021. He ranked outside the top 40 backs in true yards per carry, juke rate, evaded tackles, and breakaway run rate. Williams was 12th in yards per route run which helped fuel his 12th ranking in yards per touch. Conner should still be considered the workhorse, but Williams could steal some routes and touches as the season progresses. If Conner goes down, he proved that he could perform in an every-down role last year.
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200.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
WR - CLE (at PIT)
Donovan Peoples-Jones is an intriguing late-round dart throw as the Browns' other primary "X" receiver - assuming they don't also bring in free agent Will Fuller. DPJ finished 2021 second in yards per catch (17.6) last season.
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201.
Parris Campbell
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
I get that fantasy managers have been burned repeatedly by Parris Campbell's previous injury woes. Maybe I have an eternal blind spot for Campbell, but I'm willing to reinvest for 2022. We need to flashback for a second and realize how talented Campbell is. During his final two seasons at Ohio State, he ranked sixth and tenth in yards per route run and sixth and first in YAC per receptions among all FBS wide receivers with at least 50 targets (per PFF). The Colts still have a void that needs to be filled behind Michael Pittman. If Indy passes more this season than consensus is projecting, one of these Colts' receivers will be a significant value in fantasy. My money rides with Campbell.
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202.
Brevin Jordan
TE - HOU (at IND)
The Miami product enjoyed a decent rookie season, finishing with a 19% target rate per route run and four top-12 weekly finishes over his last nine games.
Jordan also dominated the receiving usage over the team's last two games, running 40 routes to Pharaoh Brown's 18 and Anthony Auclair's five. It's a great sign that Jordan should lock down the primary receiving role at tight end in Houston, especially with Jordan Akins signing with the New York Giants this offseason. It's easy to envision Jordan carving out a solid receiving role in a lackluster/unproven receiving corps behind Cooks. He's an athletic tight end with YAC-ability that I will gladly draft as my second or third tight end across any squad. |
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203.
Evan McPherson
K - CIN (vs . BAL)
As a rookie, Evan McPherson tied Justin Tucker as the K2 averaging 9.6 fantasy points per game. He finished as PFF's second-highest graded PK and led the NFL in 50-plus yards converted attempts (9-11). His reliance on long FGs could be a sign that regression is on the horizon as the kickers that have done supremely well in that metric -- Jason Sanders, Matt Prater, Joey Slye -- have fallen from top-5 kickers to back-end starters the following year.
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204.
Los Angeles Chargers
DST - LAC (at DEN)
The Chargers obviously boast a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but their two matchups to start the season against AFC West foes might make them tough to trust right out of the gates.
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205.
Dallas Cowboys
DST - DAL (at WAS)
Dallas owned the No. 1 turnover differential in the NFL in 2021, which is likely going to regress. 26 interceptions is just not repeatable. It's hard to draft them confidently with that in mind, considering they also open the season versus Tampa Bay and the Bengals.
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206.
D'Onta Foreman
RB - CAR (at NO)
D'Onta Foreman performed well last season as Tennessee's garage sale version of Derrick Henry. In Weeks 12-18, he turned 18.3 rushing attempts per game into 80.3 rushing yards per contest. While he was outside the top 20 in yards created per touch and yards per touch, he was still superior to Chuba Hubbard in both of these metrics.
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207.
Davis Mills
QB - HOU (at IND)
Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills is one of my biggest offseason risers. He ranked outside my top-40 dynasty quarterbacks as a rookie after being selected by the Texans in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Mills was extremely shaky to start the year, sitting with the league's 31st-ranked PFF passing grade through his first nine games.
The Stanford product turned it on over the final five weeks of the 2021 season, finishing with a 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging a respectable 17.4 fantasy points per game. With a full offseason ahead as the presumed starter, Mills is shaping up to be a strong fantasy QB2 with room to grow in 2022. |
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208.
Daniel Carlson
K - LV (vs . KC)
The highest ranked kicker based on projections is Las Vegas Raiders kicker, Daniel Carlson. He finished last as the K4, despite leading the NFL in attempts. Carlson owns easy K1 overall upside playing in a high-powered offense that benefits from indoor conditions. Not to mention, his new head coach Josh McDaniels' play calling a season ago fueled a renaissance K1 performance for long-time veteran Nick Folk in New England. And that came with the Patriots offense converting TDs at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL last season.
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209.
Green Bay Packers
DST - GB (vs . DET)
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210.
Curtis Samuel
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
Curtis Samuel is coming off a lost season in which he dealt with groin and hamstring issues. Samuel could only gut out five games played and never saw more than 39% of snaps in any of them. Despite the team addressing the wide receiver depth chart with the selection of Jahan Dotson in the first round, Samuel still has a clear path to playing time as the starting slot wide receiver. Outside of health, the other looming question is how many receiving options can Carson Wentz support at this juncture. Samuel is a late-round dart throw only in redraft.
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211.
Gus Edwards
RB - BAL (at CIN)
Gus Edwards is a true underdog story - a former undrafted free agent who owns a top-5 PFF rushing grade and yards per carry (5.1) since 2018. But with coming off a torn ACL and J.K. Dobbins entrenched as the 1A starter in the Ravens backfield, is the efficient GusBu even worth the squeezer in fantasy football?
Consider in his best season, 2021, Edwards finished RB35 in 0.5 PPR scoring. That low-end RB3 upside is gone now. He can't be viewed as much of anything but a hand-cuff to Dobbins, with hopes that he can also occasionally find the end zone to make up for a lack of pass-game work. Because ten touches per game in the form of carries is going to do literally nothing to help your fantasy lineup. Do not buy into the fallacy that Edwards owns "stand-alone value." |
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212.
Miami Dolphins
DST - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Miami's defensive is legitimately one of the best-built units in the NFL. They are stacked nicely at all three levels and ranked third in pressures a season ago. They are in play as a fringe DST1 at home versus New England in Week 1, who routinely drop the ball every time they play in South Beach.
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213.
Rex Burkhead
RB - HOU (at IND)
The highest-paid running back on the Houston Texans roster is Rex Burkhead. $2.1 million of Burkhead's $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed. Meanwhile, Marlon Mack signed a 1-year $2 million deal, and rookie Dameon Pierce was drafted in the fourth round.
I envision Mack/Pierce duking out work on early downs, while Burkhead slides in as the primary pass-catching back after he ranked sixth in route participation over the last four weeks of the 2021 season. The receiving role is the one to target in this backfield for a team that projects to be playing from behind frequently. Not to mention that Burkhead came over from the New England Patriots last year alongside general manager Nick Caserio, so there's a built-in connection from management to the field. It's no coincidence that Burkhead nearly doubled his career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and games started in his first year with Houston in 2021. And over the past two seasons, Burkhead has flashed a high weekly fantasy ceiling. He's crested 22-plus weekly fantasy points thrice since 2020. Mack has totaled 21.5 fantasy points over that span. |
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214.
Harrison Butker
K - KC (at LV)
Butker has fallen out of the elite kicking category over the last two seasons, finishing outside the top-10 Ks after ranking top-7 his three seasons. It's through no fault of his own as Butker has maintained solid efficiency, but he's just been assigned fewer opportunities in the Chiefs high-powered offense. However the loss of Tyreek Hill could present a return to form for Butker if the team struggles to convert TDs in the red zone.
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215.
Ryan Succop
K - TB (at ATL)
Ryan Succop is a curious case at the kicker position because he should be a top option based on the offensive environment he plays in. However, not much has changed about his situation from a year ago when he finished as the QB15 averaging fewer than 8 fantasy points per game. It's possible Succop's just not that good after finishing with the 25th-ranked FG% in 2021 (83.3%). He also doesn't have the leg strength to nail longer field goals with just 2 50-plus yard kicks converted over the last 3 seasons.
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216.
Philadelphia Eagles
DST - PHI (vs . NYG)
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217.
Sterling Shepard
WR - NYG (at PHI)
Simply put: When Sterling Shepard is healthy and on the field, he gets peppered with targets.
He has been a top-40 wide receiver in terms of fantasy points per game (PPR) over the past three seasons, commanding nearly eight targets per game. But with his health status off the Achilles tear a major concern and the Giants featuring highly-competitive wide receiver room, 2022 might be the year Ol' Shepard falls to the wayside as nothing more than bench depth with a decent floor in PPR formats as his main selling argument. |
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218.
David Bell
WR - CLE (at PIT)
David Bell might be my favorite WR to draft from Day 3 of the real NFL draft. He has an awesome landing spot with the Cleveland Browns and quarterback Deshaun Watson .
The Browns understand his limitations as an athlete, but his strengths as an underneath wide receiver can help him produce after the catch. Bell finished third in the FBS in receiving yards on the outside (1,097), second in total forced missed tackles (25) and 10th in PFF receiving grade (86.9) among his draft class. He's a perfect fit alongside prototypical No. 1 WR Amari Cooper and the speedy duo of Donovan Peoples-Jones/Anthony Schwartz. |
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219.
Damien Williams
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
Damien Williams is a name to keep tabs on simply because of the coaching connection with the new Falcons' RBs coach, Michael Pitre. Both spent the 2021 season with the Chicago Bears. In his two games with a lead role last season, Williams averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game. And per the Falcons official depth chart - it is depth chart szn - he is listed as the RB2, behind Patterson.
If C-Patt is used more as an actual WR in a offense lacking weapons, Williams seems slated for the next opportunity. |
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220.
Mo Alie-Cox
TE - IND (vs . HOU)
With Jack Doyle officially retired, newly re-signed Mo Alie-Cox TE1 szn could finally become a reality. The towering, 6-foot-5 tight end played in three games last season with Doyle limited or inactive. In those games, Big Mac caught eight of 12 passes for 112 yards -- 2.04 yards per route run -- and two receiving touchdowns.
His big-body type will earn him looks in the red zone from new quarterback Matt Ryan among a very barren Indianapolis Colts receiving corps outside of Michael Pittman Jr. Alie-Cox should be the favorite to earn starting tight ends duties over second-year slot/tight end Kylen Granson after the Colts dished out a three-year, $18 million contract to the 28-year-old former college basketball standout. |
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221.
Baltimore Ravens
DST - BAL (at CIN)
Week 1: Jets. Week 2: Dolphins. Health withstanding, expect the Ravens to regain top-5 form sooner rather than later. They are overdue for positive TO differential after finishing five-worst in that category from a season ago.
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222.
Sony Michel
RB - LAC (at DEN)
Give credit to Sony Michel after he ranked third in rushing yards and first in carries over the final six weeks of the 2021 season. The former Rams running back performed admirably in relief of Darrell Henderson Jr., but he was immediately supplanted by Cam Akers once the second-year back was deemed healthy enough to play a full-time role.
He signed a 1 year, $1.75M contract with the Miami Dolphins this offseason, joining a backfield with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. Michel offers the least explosiveness of the bunch but has the most proven track record of shouldering a workload that translates into fantasy production at 5-foot-11 and 216 pounds. However, that was not enough to secure a roster spot, as he was released by the Dolphins. Michel did not stay on the FA market for very long, signing with the Chargers almost immediately after his release. Michel has super interesting appeal as late-round RB target in a high-powered L.A. offense as a nice compliment to starting RB1 Austin Ekeler. Chance he carves out some standalone value with the Chargers looking to lighten Ekeler's load. |
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223.
Jerick McKinnon
RB - KC (at LV)
Kansas City re-signed Jerick McKinnon to a one-year deal, adding him to a backfield alongside Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones and Derrick Gore.
It'd be easy to brush off the McKinnon signing based on the mid-June timing, had he not fully taken over the backfield during KC's playoff run in 2021. In fact, from Week 18 through the first 3 rounds of the playoffs, McKinnon averaged 14.3 fantasy points (PPR) and over four receptions per game. When CEH returned from injury in the Divisonal Round, McKinnon doubled his touches (30 vs 15). With an established pass-catching background and obvious trust from the coaching staff to let him loose during the postseason, McKinnon should be considered with a late-round pick across all fantasy formats. As for Edwards-Helaire, it further creates doubt about his pass-catching role in the Chiefs offense. His 0.73 yards per route run ranked 64th out of 68 qualifying running backs in 2021. The mark was also significantly worse than his teammates Darrel Williams (1.28) and McKinnon (1.15). |
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224.
Cleveland Browns
DST - CLE (at PIT)
The Browns are strong across the board on defense and get dream matchups during the first month of the year. At Carolina, home versus the New York Jets, home versus the Steelers and at Atlanta should result in double-digit fantasy points from Myles Garrett and company. It's by far the easiest schedule for any DST to open the season.
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225.
A.J. Green
WR - ARI (at SF)
A.J. Green was a shell of his former self last year, finishing as the WR42 in fantasy points per game. While his healthy return to the NFL was a heartwarming story, Green shouldn't be viewed as a difference maker at this point in his career. That doesn't mean he can't be a productive NFL player and a matchup-worthy play in a pinch. Green ranked 54th in yards per route run last year, immediately behind Laquon Treadwell, which is as nauseating as it sounds (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). While that looks ugly from a macro view, Green flashed his veteran savvy against zone coverage. He was 11th in yards per route run against zone last season, immediately ahead of Hunter Renfrow (minimum ten zone targets, per PFF). Temper your expectations for Green this year, but look to flex him against zone-heavy teams in 2022.
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226.
Marcus Mariota
QB - ATL (vs . TB)
Marcus Mariota is best viewed as a QB3 in Superflex or a redraft streamer. However, there could be sneaky upside here if he holds the job all year. Mariota looked revitalized in the preseason flashing his mobility and rushing while pushing the ball down the field. As the very last of the Konami quarterbacks in drafts, Mariota offers some appeal.
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227.
Kansas City Chiefs
DST - KC (at LV)
The Chiefs have the NFL's most difficult strength of schedule, and it starts right from the get-go. You can't trust them as a draft-eligible fantasy DST.
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228.
Samaje Perine
RB - CIN (vs . BAL)
Samaje Perine should still be considered the primary backup to Joe Mixon despite social media's obsession with Chris Evans. Perine has done nothing over the last two seasons to lose the role as he's been excellent when called upon. Since 2020 he's ranked fourth and 18th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 50 carries, per PFF). Last year he also finished 31st in yards per route run among running backs (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). While Evans might arguably be the better passing down back, if Mixon were to go down, Perine would own the early down work with the upside to take all the action.
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229.
Zay Jones
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Zay Jones played better down the stretch than second-year receiver Bryan Edwards, which earned him a three-year $30 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jones averaged a 25% target share, 10.7 half-point fantasy points per game (27th) and 12.8 expected half-point fantasy points per game (18th) in the team's final five games including playoffs. He also led the team in total air yards (1,136). The former Raider is bound to be overlooked in fantasy despite a strong 2021 finish, so consider me a buyer in the very late rounds and in dynasty. Jones will be a starter on the outside and inherit the wide receiver role previously occupied by Laquon Treadwell. The former first-round pick finished the final six weeks of the fantasy season 10th in receiving yards with 381 - 64 per game. Jones, like Treadwell, also finished the last five weeks top-10 in PFF receiving grade versus man coverage - further bolstering Jones' case as a future playmaker on the boundary. |
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230.
Mike Davis
RB - BAL (at CIN)
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231.
Matt Prater
K - ARI (at SF)
Despite Matt Prater's inconsistent first year with the Cardinals, he still managed to finish as fantasy's eight-ranked kicker. His 37 field goals attempts were a career-high and ranked 5th in the NFL. Bodes well for him to be a draft-eligible kicker that can provide spike weeks in the Cardinals' dome. Not to mention, we could see the Arizona RZ offense struggle to start the year with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined.
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232.
Pittsburgh Steelers
DST - PIT (vs . CLE)
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233.
Zach Wilson
QB - NYJ (at MIA)
Everything about Wilson's situation is improved from a year ago. The Jets have stockpiled their offense with WR Garrett Wilson, OG Laken Tomlinson, RB Breece Hall and a plethora of tight ends to give their young quarterback a chance of succeeding in his second season.
If New York's offensive line can hold up in pass protection, Wilson has a chance of delivering fantasy value. |
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234.
Kendrick Bourne
WR - NE (at BUF)
Kendrick Bourne didn't absorb the same high-end target share that Jakobi Meyers did in the Patriots offense in 2021, but he posted career-high efficiency marks across the board. He caught 83% of his targets (2nd) and finished 14th overall in yards per route run (2.01).
After such an impressive first season in New England, it wouldn't be outlandish to see Bourne earn more targets in Year 2. After all, his 70% route participation has room to grow. |
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235.
Eno Benjamin
RB - ARI (at SF)
Eno Benjamin looks slated as the No. 2 complementary running back in the Cards backfield. He profiles more as the pass-catcher at 5-foot-9 and 207 pounds. Tough to see him earning the bellcow work over Darrel Williams if Conner goes down.
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236.
Ronald Jones II
RB - KC (at LV)
The Kansas City Chiefs signed running back Ronald Jones to a one-year deal to help bolster their running back room behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
The former Buccaneer took a major step backward in 2021, being regulated to strict backup duties after losing out on the starting gig in Tampa Bay to Leonard Fournette. And even when loaded to take on the bell-cow role with Fournette sidelined during the end of the season, RoJo failed to fire. He earned 20 carries in Week 16 versus the Panthers but totaled just 65 yards. The plodding runner also finished 51st out of 64 qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt (2.5). Jones is a one-dimensional grinder back, whose fantasy value will be super reliant on carry-volume, offensive line play, and overall offensive efficiency. That in itself means he will have fantasy appeal as a late-round running back in redraft if he can carve out a role on early-down and/or at the goal-line in a high-powered Chiefs offense. |
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237.
Jamison Crowder
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
If Jamison Crowder can just do what Cole Beasley did last season - 82 receptions for 693 yards, WR40 in PPR, WR48 in HPPR - he will vastly out-produce his ADP outside the top-60.
Playing in a super pass-heavy offense will allow Crowder the opporuntity to soak up targets underneath, as he has done when healthy for the New York Jets. Just last year, the 29-year old commanded at least five targets in every single game he played without leaving due to injury. In those ten healthy games, the slot receiver averaged nearly five receptions and seven targets per game. |
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238.
Tyrion Davis-Price
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
It's possible that Tyrion Davis-Price could be that dude. After the team burnt a third-round pick the year before on bench warmer extraordinaire Trey Sermon, the hesitation to invest in this backfield is real. Davis-Price performed well in his athletic testing with a 77th percentile 40-yard dash and 73rd percentile 10-yard split time. Since 2020 the 49ers are fifth in neutral rushing rate (47%). There's volume to support multiple rushers as matchup or flex players or one rusher that could easily be a weekly top 20 option. The team has stated Elijah Mitchell is their lead back, but as last season showed, that can change.
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239.
Kenyan Drake
RB - BAL (at CIN)
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240.
Brandon McManus
K - DEN (vs . LAC)
Despite Brandon McManus' big leg, he's only finished as top-10 fantasy K once. I'd stay away considering the projected success we will see from a Russell Wilson/Nathaniel Hackett red-zone combination in 2022.
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241.
Rodrigo Blankenship
K - FA (BYE)
2020's K6 was lost in 2021 due to an injury, but the combined efforts of Rodrigo Blankenship and Michael Bagley would have produce the K9 last season. Considering the Colts have ranked top-10 in FG attempts the past two seasons, Blankenship is an extremely safe option to return top-10 value.
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242.
Jason Sanders
K - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Jason Sanders' massive drop-off from K1 to K20 is a reminder that you don't want to be caught chasing the No. 1 overall scorer from last season when it stands out like an outlier. Sanders' extremely high conversion rate on FGs of 50-plus yards in 2020 was a prime sign that regression would follow.
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243.
Nick Folk
K - NE (at BUF)
2021 was the perfect storm for Nick Folk. He finished as the No. 1 fantasy kicker after finishing third in attempts and fifth in FG%. Folk connected on 90% of his fields goals for 30-plus yards. I'd be easy to brush off Folk's career year and point to regression in 2022, but the Patriots track record of reliable fantasy kickers suggests he can be a trusted commodity.
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244.
Younghoe Koo
K - ATL (vs . TB)
Younghoe Koo's top-12 ADP is based on his merits during an outstanding 2020 campaign, not necessarily based on his 2022 projection. Because based on the outlook of the Falcons offense -- not great, 24th in RZ efficiency last season -- we should be ranking/drafting him more like he was last season. He was the K18.
Admittedly though, I'd expect Koo to regress positively closer to his 2020 form after finishing the season as PFF's second-highest graded kicker with the 5th best FG% (93%). Doesn't hurt either that he plays predominately in a dome. |
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245.
Robbie Gould
K - SF (vs . ARI)
As good as Gold? Not so fast. Robbie Gould has finished outside the top-15 in FG% and total attempts the past 2 seasons, resulting in fantasy finishes beyond 20th. I'd be bearish on him as a reliable kicking option week-to-week. The 49ers top-10 red zone offense that past two seasons has not helped create more opportunities for Gould.
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246.
Jake Elliott
K - PHI (vs . NYG)
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247.
Tennessee Titans
DST - TEN (at JAC)
At home versus the turnover-prone Daniel Jones and New York Giants in Week 1.
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248.
Cincinnati Bengals
DST - CIN (vs . BAL)
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249.
Dustin Hopkins
K - LAC (at DEN)
Dustin Hopkins is this year's Nick Folk: A Darkhorse to finish as fantasy's No. 1 kicker. It's probably more of a longshot with the Chargers' aggressiveness to go for it on fourth down, but hear me out. Hopkins was the K7 after joining LA in Week 8, going a perfect 7-7- on kicks between 40-49 yards while converting 90% of his kicks. And when he play indoors over that stretch, his points per game was just north of nine fantasy points per game.
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250.
Arizona Cardinals
DST - ARI (at SF)
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251.
Jonnu Smith
TE - NE (at BUF)
Jonnu Smith's talent didn't disappear overnight. Whether he struggled to pick up the playbook or the team shifted their preconceived notions on personnel usage in season, the fact remains that Smith didn't get the playing time that we projected entering 2021. Last season Smith still popped in per route metrics ranking eighth in yards per route run and first in YAC per reception (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). When he was on the field, the team did make it a point to get the ball in his hands as he led all tight ends in target per route run rate. Sadly, he eclipsed 60% of snaps played in only three games. If Smith can earn more snaps in 2022, there's still a ceiling to chase in the final rounds of your fantasy drafts.
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252.
Chuba Hubbard
RB - CAR (at NO)
Chuba Hubbard started with solid showings in his attempt to replace Christian McCaffrey's production last season after he was sidelined in Week 3. Hubbard averaged 20.4 touches and 83.4 total yards per game over the next five weeks as the RB36, RB16, RB22, RB29, and RB20. Hubbard's underlying metrics weren't so pretty as he finished the season 45th in juke rate and 41st in yards created per touch. By the end of the season, the team worked in multiple backs with Hubbard. Throughout the preseason Hubbard and D'Onta Foreman split work, so currently this is a situation to avoid if you're looking for clear handcuffs.
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253.
Sammy Watkins
WR - GB (vs . DET)
Sammy Watkins' fantasy points per game over the last four seasons are as follows: 9.5, 8.0, 7.0 and 5.2. Not the direction you want to be going after joining his third team in three seasons.
ESPN's Rob Demovsky said that based on the investment the Packers gave Watkins - $350,000 signing bonus as part of a one-year deal - he's hardly a lock to even make the Week 1 roster. |
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254.
D'Ernest Johnson
RB - CLE (at PIT)
The Cleveland Browns tendered Johnson to prevent another team from adding him this offseason. He is certainly capable of being more than a third-stringer after an extremely impressive 2021 campaign that saw him finish as PFF's highest-graded rusher (90.6).
Johnson also delivered in his three starts, averaging a whopping 22.6 fantasy points per game. He's a great player to target late with the hope that he finds more opportunity in 2022. Kareem Hunt's contract ends at the end of the 2022 season, so the Browns could move on from him a year early with a mid-year trade and elevate Johnson to the No. 2 on the depth chart. |
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255.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR - CAR (at NO)
Laviska Shenault looks like the odd-man-out entering Year 3 with Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones and Zay Jones ahead of him in the target pecking order. Viska-stans might need a trade for him to revive his plummeting fantasy value.
Because his team-leading 21% target rate per route run on 99 targets does suggest that maybe he's not as bad as the market perceives him. Especially considering the wide receivers going into Year 3 drafted in Round 2 that have eclipsed 170 targets since 2018 is a solid group to be associated with. Those names include JuJu Smith-Schuster, D.K. Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr. and Christian Kirk. |
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256.
Byron Pringle
WR - CHI (vs . MIN)
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257.
Mitch Trubisky
QB - PIT (vs . CLE)
After backing up Josh Allen in Buffalo last season, Trubisky will get a chance to start, this time with the Steelers. He'll have to beat out first-round rookie Kenny Pickett, however. Trubisky's 2018 season with the Bears raised hopes; his 2019 and 2020 seasons dashed them. Running ability and an NFL-caliber arm raise hopes that Trubisky's fantasy value can be rehabilitated.
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258.
Minnesota Vikings
DST - MIN (at CHI)
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259.
Braxton Berrios
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
Braxton Berrios ran a route on 88% of the Jets' dropbacks and commanded a 23% target share in Jamison Crowder's absence in Week 16. The plucky Berrios stepped up again with Crowder out in Week 17, commanding a 35% target share without even leading the New York Jets in routes run. He finished the day catching eight of 12 targets for 65 yards to go along with two touchdowns (one rushing and receiving).
He's worthy of as a depth stash because of his ability to command targets at a high rate: Berrios' 24% target rate per route run over the last two seasons ranks 14th among WRs with at least 100 targets. |
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260.
Wil Lutz
K - NO (vs . CAR)
If Wil Lutz is fully healthy, he is a steal in fantasy drafts. The Saints K has the following finishes in his career: 7th, 6th, 4th, 2nd and 12th. Hard to beat his upside playing in a dome attached to an offense that is good not great -- a recipe for success with a fantasy kicker.
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261.
Carolina Panthers
DST - CAR (at NO)
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262.
Randall Cobb
WR - GB (vs . DET)
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263.
Zack Moss
RB - BUF (vs . NE)
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264.
Bryan Edwards
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
I have a confession to make. I have been an ardent Bryan Edwards supporter and truther. Edwards can still carve out a productive NFL career, but the tantalizing heights I once envisioned in his range of outcomes have evaporated. Edwards was sadly ranked 98th in route win rate last season while displaying some qualities that could mesh well with Arthur Smith's offense. Edwards' size will fit in as well as his after-the-catch ability. While his overall efficiency was putrid, Edwards did manage to rank 16th in YAC per reception (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). He likely never develops in the high target share earner I hoped for, but he can still pan out as a decent WR3 or WR4 in the NFL.
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265.
Mason Crosby
K - GB (vs . DET)
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266.
Chris Boswell
K - PIT (vs . CLE)
Chris Boswell's high 2022 ranking seems a bit point-chasey from 2021, after the Steelers kicker doubled his attempts from the year prior. Pittsburgh never attempted more kicks than they did in 2021 versus recent years, so expecting Boswell to run back a K3 performance seems slightly far-fetched. His 89% conversion rate on 50-plus yard FGs is primed to regress.
Although his routine 90%-plus FG hit rate does suggest he can be a low-end kicker or streamable piece if the Steelers offense plays conservatives with a rookie QB. |
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267.
Nelson Agholor
WR - NE (at BUF)
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268.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
WR - CAR (at NO)
Terrace Marshall's outlook isn't rosy, with a pitiful 0.50 yards per route run in his rookie season and a foot injury that landed him on the IR (per PFF). The glass-half-full view of the situation is that the foot injury suppressed his effectiveness throughout the season. In a small sample, Marshall was snatching opposing corners' souls from their bodies in the preseason, securing 75% of his targets with 3.93 yards per route run (per PFF). The upside could be quite nice as a (nearly) free dice roll late. Robby Anderson looked like he was on his last legs in 2021.
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269.
Greg Joseph
K - MIN (at CHI)
If we just knew that Greg Joseph was good, he'd be a lock for production in 2022. The Vikings kicker was the K6 last season and missed the top-3 by fewer than 7 points. He's basically free in all of drafts because of his real-life stats -- PFF's 27th-graded K in 2021 -- but his projection in a high-powered dome offense can't be overlooked.
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270.
Cameron Brate
TE - TB (at ATL)
Gronk's departure from Tampa also impacts the Buccaneers tight end room massively because it thrusts Cameron Brate in the starting tight end role - the Harvard man is under contract till 2024.
Although Brate was a non-factor in the games he filled in for Gronkowski last season. He averaged just three targets and 3.8 fantasy points per game. However, he was splitting snaps with O.J. Howard (signed with Buffalo this offseason), so there's reason to believe he will have a more fruitful role in 2022. Not to mention his competition for targets last season - Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown - will look much less menacing to open the year between mostly Evans and Russell Gage. He's easily worth drafting in Best Ball drafts while his price remains cheap, but don't go out over your skies to snag him in redraft formats. His sub-9% target rate per route run while Gronk was sidelined doesn't necessarily enthrall confidence that Brate is Brady's guy. You're hoping he emerges as a boom-or-bust TD scorer based on his 20 red-zone targets - tied for 2nd with several tight ends - from last season. It wouldn't be the first time Brate would be a fantasy TE1 having finished top-8 in 2016 and 2017. |
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271.
Washington Commanders
DST - WAS (vs . DAL)
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272.
Chicago Bears
DST - CHI (vs . MIN)
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273.
Greg Zuerlein
K - NYJ (at MIA)
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274.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
WR - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Cedrick Wilson will be facing an uphill battle when it comes to demanding targets in an offense with Waddle, Hill, Edmonds and Mike Gesicki Injuries lit the path for Wilson to be productive last season in Dallas and may be required for a second straight year.
After all, Wilson is a 27-year old wide receiver that has yet to total 1,000 total receiving yards since being drafted in 2018. Leaving a high-powered Dallas offense for a Miami offense led by an unproven quarterback makes it less likely Wilson delivers as many spike weeks as he did in 2021 - even as a more full-time player. |
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275.
Graham Gano
K - NYG (at PHI)
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276.
New York Giants
DST - NYG (at PHI)
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277.
Adam Trautman
TE - NO (vs . CAR)
Adam Trautman missed three games last season due to an MCL sprain, but his season was still a massive disappointment outside of the injury. His 1.05 yards per route run and 4.1 yards after the catch per reception won't get anyone excited for his 2022 prospects. Last year's depth chart was a perfect storm scenario for him to step forward if that was in the cards for his career arch. Sadly he only logged one top 12 tight end fantasy finish last year. The hope helium has been drained from his balloon. He's waiver wire fodder or a streaming option should injuries strike the Saints depth chart.
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278.
Deshaun Watson
QB - CLE (at PIT)
Deshaun Watson is a top-five option when he gets back on the field after his six-game suspension.
He was exactly that from 2019-2020, and there is no reason to think the 26-year-old won't pick up where he left off. During his last season of play, Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt (8.9). Considering some best ball leagues are won in November/December, not September, he's worth stashing if you opt to wait on the quarterback position. |
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279.
Matt Breida
RB - NYG (at PHI)
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280.
Seattle Seahawks
DST - SEA (vs . LAR)
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281.
Randy Bullock
K - TEN (at JAC)
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282.
Myles Gaskin
RB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
With all the new additions Miami has made in the backfield this offseason, Myles Gaskin seems like the odd-man out. Can't imagine he has any fantasy role unless injuries thrust him into action. The 2019 7th-round pick finished with the second-worst yards after contact per attempt average (2.2) in 2021 among 61 RBs with at least 70 carries.
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283.
New York Jets
DST - NYJ (at MIA)
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284.
Ameer Abdullah
RB - LV (vs . KC)
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285.
Jason Myers
K - SEA (vs . LAR)
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286.
Kenny Pickett
QB - PIT (vs . CLE)
Pickett wasn't on the prospect radar until he blew up as a fifth-year senior at Pittsburgh, throwing for 4,319 yards and 42 TDs in 13 games. Now, he'll compete with Mitchell Trubisky to be the Steelers' starter after being the only QB taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. Pickett's intangibles might be better than his raw tools, but the tools aren't bad.
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287.
Joshua Kelley
RB - LAC (at DEN)
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288.
Cairo Santos
K - CHI (vs . MIN)
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289.
C.J. Uzomah
TE - NYJ (at MIA)
C.J. Uzomah is a real-life upgrade over what the Jets had at TE last season. He showcased decent fantasy production in 2021 - at least five targets in his last seven games before his injury - but it remains to be seen who, if anybody, can be reliable in a Zach Wilson-led passing attack.
His 13% target rate per route run - last among tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2021 - doesn't exactly inspire confidence that Uzomah is the late-round tight end to targets in 2022. Tyler Conklin profiles more as the receiving tight end, with Uzomah shouldering more of the assigned blocking. |
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290.
Chris Evans
RB - CIN (vs . BAL)
Samaje Perine is viewed as the current backup to Joe Mixon, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Evans take over that role in 2022. The former Michigan Wolverine finished as PFF's fifth-highest graded receiver and 10th-best pass-blocker at the running back position.
His 2.11 yards per route run ranked 4th-best among all RBs, which suggests he has a legitimate shot to take over third-down duties in the Bengals backfield. But there's a case to be made that he would also thrive if an injury should occur to Mixon with an equally excellent rushing skill set. Evans' elusive rating ranked No. 1 and his yards after contact per attempt (4.05) ranked fourth. Fantasy gamers got a glimpse of Evans potential in a feature role in Week 18, when the Bengals rested their starters. Evans played 56% of the snaps in the regular season finale, compiling 13.9 fantasy points - seven carries for 35 yards and four catches for 24 yards on five targets. |
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291.
Geno Smith
QB - SEA (vs . LAR)
Don't label me as a Geno Smith stan, but I was pleasantly surprised by his metrics last year during his brief run as the starter for Seattle. Last season he was the 16th highest graded passer per PFF while also sitting at third in big-time throw rate and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks, per PFF). While it's impossible to expect him to keep up this lofty pace for a full season, even borderline league-average play from Smith would greatly improve the outlook for all of the skill players in this offense, beginning with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. While Smith won't be on my radar in drafts outside of sicko 16-team Superflex leagues, he might be good enough this season to support Seattle's other fantasy options.
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292.
Marquez Callaway
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
What a difference a year makes. Marquez Callaway was the hype machine target last year, but sadly he massively disappointed fantasy managers. He finished the season as the WR50 in fantasy points per game. Callaway simply isn't a wide receiver that should be expected to lead an NFL passing attack. Last year he was 62nd in route win rate and 69th in route win rate against man coverage (per Playerprofiler.com). These lagging metrics explain why he was 59th in target per route run rate. This season he slides back to the middle of the pack on the Saints' wide receiver depth chart and the fantasy abyss.
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293.
Dan Arnold
TE - JAC (vs . TEN)
Unlike Evan Engram in recent seasons, Dan Arnold has proven he can be an efficient NFL tight end. Arnold could overtake Engram as the Jaguars' top passing-catching tight end this season as the weeks roll on. In Weeks 5-11 last year, he played 62% or higher snaps in every game and was ninth in targets among tight ends (17% target share, 6.3 targets per game). In 2021 he was seventh in targets per snap and tenth in yards per route run immediately behind Darren Waller (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). While people worry about Engram or fawn over his athleticism, don't let Arnold's efficiency and own gym rat chops get lost in the mix. Arnold has a 98th percentile burst score (per Playerprofiler.com) and 93rd percentile agility.
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294.
Isaiah Likely
TE - BAL (at CIN)
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295.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
WR - TEN (at JAC)
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296.
Trey Sermon
RB - PHI (vs . NYG)
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297.
Hassan Haskins
RB - TEN (at JAC)
Michigan's Hassan Haskins was one of my favorite running back sleepers before the NFL Draft. I claimed I'd be in on him if he got Round 4 draft capital, and Haskins did exactly that being selected 131st overall.
He broke out in a big way as "the guy" for the Wolverines in 2021, earning a 23 percent dominator rating, raising his career dominator rating to 20 percent. With an identical PFF rushing grade to Breece Hall (91.6) over the last three seasons, Haskins looked primed to exceed expectations in the NFL. He offers a lot of size at 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds, so he can handle a heavy workload. The Michigan product also led his entire class in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line (29), which gives him a real shot at carving out a goal-line role in the pros. Haskins will never see the field as long as Derrick Henry stays healthy. But there's zero doubt in my mind that he's the clear direct back-up for Henry, who showed us last season that he is mortal. |
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298.
Quez Watkins
WR - PHI (vs . NYG)
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299.
Jacoby Brissett
QB - CLE (at PIT)
Jacoby Brissett was less than awe-inspiring in his last extended runs as a starting quarterback. He finished as the QB23 and QB28 in fantasy points per game in 2017 and 2019 while starting at least 15 games each season. Brissett was the 33rd and 35th highest graded passer per PFF, with anemic big-time throw rates ranking 39th and 42nd. While Deshaun Watson is suspended, the Browns can only hope for game manager level play as they attempt to grind out wins with their running game and defense. Even if you're streaming quarterbacks in fantasy, Brissett is unlikely to make the list often this season.
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300.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
RB - TB (at ATL)
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301.
Ka'imi Fairbairn
K - HOU (at IND)
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302.
Trey McBride
TE - ARI (at SF)
With DeAndre Hopkins slated to miss the first six games of the season, the Arizona Cardinals might have no choice but to feature more 12 personnel early and utilize their shiny new second-round pick, Trey McBride. McBride was the highest graded collegiate tight end last year per PFF, ranking fifth in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). While the track record of rookie tight ends producing out the gate in fantasy isn't good, McBride won't be drafted in most leagues, but he's a name that should be monitored closely. If Zach Ertz were to miss any time, McBride would be in the conversation as a top 12 weekly fantasy option at the position.
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303.
Jacksonville Jaguars
DST - JAC (vs . TEN)
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304.
Kyren Williams
RB - LAR (at SEA)
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305.
Devin Duvernay
WR - BAL (at CIN)
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306.
Josh Reynolds
WR - DET (at GB)
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307.
Velus Jones Jr.
WR - CHI (vs . MIN)
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308.
Daniel Bellinger
TE - NYG (at PHI)
Daniel Bellinger's overall prospect profile doesn't exactly jump off the page, but there's a ton of promise here. After failing to eclipse 1.05 yards per route run in his first three years at San Diego State, Bellinger posted 1.66 yards per route run (33rd, minimum 20 targets per PFF) in his final season. Where Bellinger really shined was after the catch, where he was seventh in YAC per reception (per PFF). He can further explore this part of his game at the NFL after testing extremely well at the combine. He finished with a 75th percentile or better speed score, burst score, and catch radius (per Playerprofiler.com). While rookie tight ends aren't usually players we look to in redraft, Bellinger could make some noise in his first season. From camp reports, he's already the team's unquestioned starter. We saw Brian Daboll heavily utilize a similarly athletic tight end in Dawson Knox last year in Buffalo. Knox finished as the TE9 in fantasy points per game on the strength of 19 red zone targets (fourth-most) and nine total touchdowns (second-most). The Giants' offense likely won't give Bellinger that many scoring opportunities, but the upside is there to carve out a weekly red zone role and surprise in fantasy football.
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309.
Tyler Conklin
TE - NYJ (at MIA)
Tyler Conklin posted highs across all receiving categories while also serving as the TE15 in fantasy in 2021. He finished ninth in route participation, 12th in target share and ninth in receptions.
His impressive season earned him a three-year deal worth $21 million with the New York Jets. But the Jets also signed ex-Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah in free agency and drafted Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert in the third round. The situation looks horrible for Conklin in a potential three-way tight end committee in a bad to below average offense. However, the situation alone has made Conklin virtually free across the board in early best ball drafts, and I think he's worth the late-round dart throw. The former Minnesota Viking should be the favorite to earn primary pass-catching duties. |
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310.
Kyle Rudolph
TE - TB (at ATL)
Kyle Rudolph arrives in Tampa Bay after a one-year stint with the Giants as a role player behind Evan Engram. Last year he only logged three games with 60% or higher snaps while seeing 21% of his target volume in the red zone. Rudolph could fill a similar role alongside Cameron Brate. Brate filled a role eerily similar to Rudolph's with the Buccaneers last year. Rudolph ranked 31st in yards per route run and 21st in YAC per reception last season among tight ends (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). Rudolph will only be a matchup streamer in 2022 unless there are injuries to the tight end room.
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311.
Dontrell Hilliard
RB - TEN (at JAC)
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312.
Jaylen Warren
RB - PIT (vs . CLE)
Former UDFA Jaylen Warren is in the driver's seat for the No. 2 RB role in the Steelers' backfield behind Najee Harris. The Oklahoma State product finished top-10 in broken tackle metrics in his draft class, and boasts pass-catching chops that should translate in fantasy-viability if he is ever given an opportunity to start. Although his size will limit him from being anything more than a weekly waiver wire plug-in, as opposed to a long-term answer at the RB position.
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313.
Odell Beckham Jr.
WR - FA (BYE)
Odell Beckham is questionable to play this season or be effective if he does after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl. Beckham was a productive player after joining the Rams last year, though. In Weeks 12-18 last year, he saw an 18.7% target share averaging 12.0 fantasy points per game which placed him as the WR31 in weekly fantasy production among wide receivers that started three or more games in that span.
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314.
Giovani Bernard
RB - TB (at ATL)
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315.
Jalen Reagor
WR - MIN (at CHI)
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316.
Tre'Quan Smith
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
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317.
Kyle Philips
WR - TEN (at JAC)
I'm disappointed to report that I acquired zero of Titans wide receiver, Kyle Philips, in my rookie drafts. First, he was taken one spot before me by FantasyPros' own Pat Fitzmaurice after I waxed poetic about him on Pat's Fitz on Fantasy podcast. Then he got swept up right before my pick in another dynasty rookie draft.
I believe he has some sneaky Hunter Renfrow-like slot skill that most will overlook, but NFL teams like the Titans will love. Philips commanded a 30 percent target share in 2021 at UCLA and could potentially become a top underneath option for Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. |
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318.
Darius Slayton
WR - NYG (at PHI)
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319.
Drew Lock
QB - SEA (vs . LAR)
Drew Lock has been nothing short of terrible so far in the NFL. He has never finished higher than 32nd in PFF passing grades while also watching his adjusted completion rate dip in each season (minimum 100 dropbacks, per PFF). I'll be fading Seattle pass catchers this season if Lock gets the nod any week.
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320.
Ty Johnson
RB - NYJ (at MIA)
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321.
Pierre Strong Jr.
RB - NE (at BUF)
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322.
William Fuller V
WR - FA (BYE)
Will Fuller only played in two games last season, drawing a total of eight targets. As good as Fuller was in 2020 (WR8), the long layoff for a 28-year-old free agent wide receiver is concerning. It's conceivable that we don't see Fuller play in 2022.
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323.
Dyami Brown
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
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324.
O.J. Howard
TE - HOU (at IND)
Once regarded as an up-and-coming elite fantasy TE, Howard has been useless the last two years. Even with the move to Buffalo, it seems unlikely that Howard will become an impact fantasy contributor unless an injury were to strike Dawson Knox.
At 27 years old, the verdict isn't really totally out on Howard, with tight ends not traditionally not firing until their second contract. He has at times performed at an elite level in the NFL - he was PFF's second-highest-graded tight end in 2018. He just needs to carve out a bigger role, where he can do damage as a receiver. |
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325.
Marlon Mack
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
News flash, people - Marlon Mack signed a 1-year $2 million deal with Houston, and it's less than the team is paying Rex Burkhead (RB95).
In fact, $2.1 million of Burkhead's $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed. We could easily see Mack released as much as we could see him become the team's starting running back. Because the former Colts running back has been completely off-the-grid the past two seasons after tearing his Achilles at the start of 2020. Since his 1,000-yard campaign in 2019, Mack has totaled 32 carries for 127 yards. |
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326.
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB - SF (vs . ARI)
Jimmy Garoppolo is a middling backup to Trey Lance these days. Last year he was QB15 in fantasy points per game with a stacked skill player cupboard around him. Without any rushing upside to speak of and a pop gun arm Garoppolo's weekly upside is vanilla at best. He's a better NFL quarterback than a fantasy option. Garoppolo ranked first in pressured completion rate and second in play-action completion rate last year.
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327.
Salvon Ahmed
RB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
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328.
Quintez Cephus
WR - DET (at GB)
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329.
Ty Montgomery
WR,RB - NE (at BUF)
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330.
Jerome Ford
RB - CLE (at PIT)
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331.
Greg Dulcich
TE - DEN (vs . LAC)
Greg Dulcich is headed to Mile High via the third round of the NFL Draft. Dulcich screams receiving upside after concluding his collegiate career at UCLA with an 84th percentile college dominator and 98th percentile yards per reception. Over the last two years, he ranked eighth and 20th in yards per route run and 24th and 16th in YAC per reception among tight ends (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). With Tim Patrick's season-ending injury and Nathaniel Hackett utilizing two tight end sets at the second-highest rate last year, Dulcich will have a role in this passing attack in year one.
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332.
Snoop Conner
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
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333.
Cade York
K - CLE (at PIT)
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334.
Justin Jackson
RB - DET (at GB)
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335.
Harrison Bryant
TE - CLE (at PIT)
Promising youngster has a chance to become the Browns' top TE now that Austin Hooper is out of the picture. The Browns' addition of QB Deshaun Watson helps make Bryant an intriguing late-round dart throw.
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336.
Brett Maher
K - DAL (at WAS)
Dallas has ranked top-10 in FG attempts per game over the last four seasons, including two No.1 finishes in 2019-2020. Bodes well for Maher who was recently re-signed by Dallas this summer. He was the K15 in points per game when he last kicked for Big D (2019).
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337.
Las Vegas Raiders
DST - LV (vs . KC)
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338.
Phillip Lindsay
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
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339.
Darrynton Evans
RB - CHI (vs . MIN)
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340.
Tommy Tremble
TE - CAR (at NO)
Baker Mayfield may makes some ancillary Panthers pieces like Tommy Tremble intriguing, to say the least.
The former Browns quarterback had an obvious connection with tight ends in both college and the NFL, so there should be some optimism that Tremble can do more in Year 2. The Panthers can't feature tight ends less than they have the past two seasons, ranking bottom three in tight end target share. It also works in Tremble's 2022 projection favor that he out-targeted teammate Ian Thomas despite running fewer routes. His 44% slot rate also ranked 15th at the position last season. |
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341.
Danny Gray
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
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342.
James Proche II
WR - BAL (at CIN)
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343.
Desmond Ridder
QB - ATL (vs . TB)
Four-year starter at Cincinnati has intriguing mobility and an NFL-caliber arm, but he needs refinement. Ridder isn't likely to start early in his rookie season but will get a shot to replace Marcus Mariota as the Atlanta starter at some point.
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344.
Jalen Guyton
WR - LAC (at DEN)
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345.
Donald Parham Jr.
TE - LAC (at DEN)
His 2021 season ended prematurely with a frightening concussion. The 6-8 Parham is expected to make a full recovery for 2022.
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346.
Taysom Hill
QB,TE - NO (vs . CAR)
Hill is a big-time runner but a CFL-caliber passer. The rushing ability gives him fantasy value whenever he sees the field, but the passing limitations prevent him from being anything but a Band-Aid for an NFL team. Possible he opens the 2022 season as the Saints' starter, but he'd probably only be keeping the seat warm for someone else.
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347.
Detroit Lions
DST - DET (at GB)
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348.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
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349.
DeeJay Dallas
RB - SEA (vs . LAR)
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350.
Khalil Shakir
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
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351.
Duke Johnson Jr.
RB - BUF (vs . NE)
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352.
Foster Moreau
TE - LV (vs . KC)
Didn't fully cash in on his chance after Darren Waller got hurt. Moreau has gone from prospect to suspect.
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353.
Chase McLaughlin
K - IND (vs . HOU)
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354.
Jaret Patterson
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
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355.
Travis Homer
RB - SEA (vs . LAR)
|
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356.
Jelani Woods
TE - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
357.
Josh Lambo
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
358.
Noah Brown
WR - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
359.
Atlanta Falcons
DST - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
360.
Tyquan Thornton
WR - NE (at BUF)
|
|
361.
Joey Slye
K - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
362.
Amari Rodgers
WR - GB (vs . DET)
|
|
363.
Joe Flacco
QB - NYJ (at MIA)
|
|
364.
Equanimeous St. Brown
WR - CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
365.
Cade Otton
TE - TB (at ATL)
|
|
366.
Tevin Coleman
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
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367.
John Bates
TE - WAS (vs . DAL)
But if, for some reason, Logan Thomas is not ready for Week 1, keep second-year tight end John Bates in the back of your mind. He would be the Day 1 starter. Bates played over 75% of the snaps as the starter to close out the final three weeks of the 2021 regular season.
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368.
Demarcus Robinson
WR - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
369.
Jauan Jennings
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
|
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370.
Tyler Badie
RB - BAL (at CIN)
Tyler Badie tied Kenneth Walker III in rushes of 10-plus yards (46) to lead the 2022 Draft Class. The undersized explosive running back enjoyed a breakout season in his final season at Missouri stepping out of Larry Roundtree's shadow. His 916 yards after contact ranked fifth-best in the class.
Quite the feat for a sub-200 pound running back. But what's more impressive is Badie's 124 catches during his four-year tenure in college - capped off by 52 receptions in 2021. That was the highest mark among all 2022 draft-eligible backs. There's no guarantee that either J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards will come out the gates hot coming off torn ACLs, so the 2021 sixth-rounder could see a larger role than many would expect from a Day 3 selection. At worst, he'd be my favorite to emerge as the No. 3 RB because I have zero faith in either Mike Davis/Justice Hill maintaining any consistent role on the Ravens offense. |
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371.
Sam Darnold
QB - CAR (at NO)
Got off to a fast start in 2021, with five TD passes, five TD runs and three 300-yard games in his first four starts. Then the roof caved in, with Darnold throwing four TD passes and 10 INTs in his other seven starts. So much for the idea that Adam Gase was entirely to blame for Darnold's non-development. He's entering his age-25 season, so there's a flicker of hope left, but the Panthers' acquisition of Baker Mayfield suggests that they've given up hope of turning around Darnold's career.
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372.
Keaontay Ingram
RB - ARI (at SF)
|
|
373.
Austin Seibert
K - DET (at GB)
|
|
374.
Rashard Higgins
WR - CAR (at NO)
|
|
375.
Kylen Granson
TE - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
376.
Calvin Austin III
WR - PIT (vs . CLE)
|
|
377.
Houston Texans
DST - HOU (at IND)
|
|
378.
Kene Nwangwu
RB - MIN (at CHI)
|
|
379.
Trestan Ebner
RB - CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
380.
Cole Beasley
WR - TB (at ATL)
|
|
381.
Dee Eskridge
WR - SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
382.
Will Dissly
TE - SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
383.
Josiah Deguara
TE - GB (vs . DET)
The former Cincinnati Bearcat has some impressive measurables - 55th percentile 40-yard dash, 77th percentile vertical jump - so a 2022 breakout is well within his range of outcomes. After all, he has led the Packers' tight end room in routes run in 2021.
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384.
James Washington
WR - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
385.
Tyler Johnson
WR - HOU (at IND)
|
|
386.
Anthony Schwartz
WR - CLE (at PIT)
|
|
387.
Benny Snell Jr.
RB - PIT (vs . CLE)
|
|
388.
Craig Reynolds
RB - DET (at GB)
|
|
389.
Malik Willis
QB - TEN (at JAC)
A slide into the third round of the NFL Draft was ruinous to Willis' fantasy value. He landed with the Titans, who don't seem to be in any hurry to replace starter Ryan Tannehill. Willis has a big arm and is a potential difference-maker as a runner, but he needs a lot of refinement. Whenever Willis gets his first NFL playing time, the results are more likely to be reminiscent of late-career Cam Newton than current Josh Allen.
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390.
Mack Hollins
WR - LV (vs . KC)
The Athletic's Vic Tafur believes that Mack Hollins will have a sizeable role in 2022.
It's important to denote that his deep-threat profile -- fourth in aDOT (16.7) in 2021 - suggests he will be the team's field stretcher on an offense filled to the brim with elite underneath options between Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller. The subsequent trade of Bryan Edwards further bolsters my take on Hollins carving out that No. 3 receiver role on a high-powered pass-heavy offense. He will never get doubled with all the other weapons on the Vegas offense, making him an extremely appetizing final-round best-ball option, especially in Raiders stacks. |
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391.
David Johnson
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
392.
Pharaoh Brown
TE - HOU (at IND)
|
|
393.
Zach Pascal
WR - PHI (vs . NYG)
|
|
394.
Juwan Johnson
TE - NO (vs . CAR)
Athletic youngster flashed playmaking potential early in the season but couldn't carve out a significant role for himself. Worth keeping on the radar.
|
|
395.
Ashton Dulin
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
396.
Malcolm Brown
RB - LAR (at SEA)
|
|
397.
Anthony Firkser
TE - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
398.
Devontae Booker
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
399.
Eddy Pineiro
K - CAR (at NO)
|
|
400.
Ty Chandler
RB - MIN (at CHI)
|
|
401.
Riley Patterson
K - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
|
402.
Jordan Mason
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
403.
Latavius Murray
RB - NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
404.
Tutu Atwell
WR - LAR (at SEA)
In deep leagues, consider 2021 second-rounder Tutu Atwell as a back-end roster stash. He was a monster producer at Louisville despite his extremely small size at 5-foot-9 and 155 pounds. However, there's no doubt the guy will have durability issues at such a small stature as displayed last season.
But a healthy Atwell could be unlocked by new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who vaulted fellow small WR Wan'Dale Robinson to an uber-productive final season at Kentucky as the team's play caller. So far, Atwell has looked solid during the summer and received praise from Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. |
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405.
John Metchie III
WR - HOU (at IND)
The Houston Texans traded multiple picks to move up for John Metchie during the 2022 NFL Draft in a similar fashion to how they acquired Nico Collins a season ago.
The former Alabama wide receiver caught 96 balls for over 1,100 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his final junior season. He just happened to be overshadowed by Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams. But don't sleep on Metchie because he possesses a nice skillset that will translate well with the Texans. He's a savvy route runner that understands how to get leverage and create separation from defenders. His game reminds me of Eddie Royal. He probably won't ever be a true No. 1, but that doesn't preclude him from carving out a niche role starting from the slot. But that will have to wait until 2023. Metchie was recently diagnosed with leukemia, making it likely he misses the entire 2022 season. |
|
406.
Brandon Bolden
RB - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
407.
Jared Cook
TE - FA (BYE)
|
|
408.
Emmanuel Sanders
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
409.
Jamal Agnew
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
410.
Geoff Swaim
TE - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
411.
T.Y. Hilton
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
412.
Ben Skowronek
WR - LAR (at SEA)
|
|
413.
Phillip Dorsett II
WR - HOU (at IND)
|
|
414.
Deonte Harty
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
New Orleans' WR room has gotten more crowded this offseason, but I can't help hyping up my guy Deonte Harty. Harty saw an extremely high target rate per route run in 2021 (27%) and finished sixth in both PFF receiving grade (86.8) and yards per route run (2.69).
He had over 52 receiving yards in three of Jameis Winston's starts last season, which indicates to me he has some built-in rapport with the quarterback. If a starting opportunity opens in the Saints offense, I'm confident Harty would deliver fantasy goodness. |
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415.
Tony Jones Jr.
RB - NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
416.
Durham Smythe
TE - MIA (vs . NYJ)
|
|
417.
Justin Watson
WR - KC (at LV)
|
|
418.
Devonta Freeman
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
419.
Ian Thomas
TE - CAR (at NO)
|
|
420.
Chris Moore
WR - HOU (at IND)
|
|
421.
Jake Ferguson
TE - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
422.
Tylan Wallace
WR - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
423.
Dare Ogunbowale
RB - HOU (at IND)
|
|
424.
Kyle Juszczyk
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
425.
Demetric Felton Jr.
RB,WR - CLE (at PIT)
|
|
426.
Wayne Gallman Jr.
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
427.
Mike Boone
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
|
|
428.
Justice Hill
RB - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
429.
Deon Jackson
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
430.
Chris Conley
WR - HOU (at IND)
|
|
431.
Jonathan Williams
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
432.
Noah Gray
TE - KC (at LV)
|
|
433.
Ryan Griffin
TE - CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
434.
Kalif Raymond
WR - DET (at GB)
|
|
|
435.
Jonathan Garibay
K - FA (BYE)
Dallas has ranked top-10 in FG attempts per game over the last four seasons, including two No.1 finishes in 2019-2020. If rookie UDFA Jonathan Garibay can win the job, he will be a heavily coveted kicking option as the season progresses. The former Texas Tech product hit 98% of XPs and 13-14 of his FGs his final year in school.
Dallas did re-sign former CFL kicker Lirim Hajrullahu, so he would have equal fantasy upside if he beats out the rookie this summer. |
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436.
Drew Sample
TE - CIN (vs . BAL)
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|
437.
Teddy Bridgewater
QB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Turned in an efficient if unspectacular season for the Panthers in 2020 but failed to unlock the Broncos' considerable pass-catching talent in 2021. Will now back up Tua Tagovailoa in Miami.
|
|
438.
Denzel Mims
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
|
|
439.
Gary Brightwell
RB - NYG (at PHI)
|
|
440.
Tyrod Taylor
QB - NYG (at PHI)
Taylor can still run even though he'll be entering his age-33 season, but he's always been a below-average passer.
|
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441.
Tyler Huntley
QB - BAL (at CIN)
Made four starts in place of the injured Lamar Jackson in 2021. Huntley ran for two TDs and threw for two TDs in a Week 15 win over the Packers, finishing as the QB1 for the week, but his overall performance in his second NFL season was a mixed bag at best. Huntley's rushing ability makes him worth monitoring.
|
|
442.
Erik Ezukanma
WR - MIA (vs . NYJ)
|
|
443.
Laquon Treadwell
WR - NE (at BUF)
|
|
444.
Jeremy Ruckert
TE - NYJ (at MIA)
|
|
445.
Brycen Hopkins
TE - LAR (at SEA)
|