The coffee pot was empty. Dumbfounded, I glanced at the clock on the wall to confirm my suspicions. Yes, the time meant I was in the peak of morning office hours, but, alas the unthinkable had occurred.
Some poor, helpless soul both required the last drop of the coffee and lacked the fortitude to replace the morn’s nectar. Some people might call me a hero for brewing another pot, but I just did what anyone else with a conscience would do in that situation.
While I merely filled a filter with coffee and pressed a button, the NFL Draft has filled the fantasy football pot with sweet dynasty ambrosia. There are now plenty of rookie players to evaluate through the prism of opportunity and talent. Let’s hone our focus on the dynasty options with a chance for significant impact in 2017.
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Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
At first blush, Christian McCaffrey’s all-purpose skill set does not seem to fit with Cam Newton’s perceived strengths. It is no secret that Newton throws downfield often, and McCaffrey’s elite pass catching ability would not seem to be well utilized with that approach.
However, the early selection of McCaffrey at eighth overall should be a warning that change is coming in Carolina. The development of Cam Newton 2.0 is underway.
Newton 2.0 will run less and throw underneath more to the un-coverable McCaffrey and dynamic Curtis Samuel to relieve pressure. The exclusive combination of collegiate production and athleticism make McCaffrey my top rookie RB for 2017. Now, Jonathan Stewart still technically exists, but the McCaffrey will be the feature back and should be considered an RB2 with low-end RB1 upside.
Samaje Perine (RB – WAS)
At the top of the list of rookies with RB1 potential in 2017, Samaje Perine finds himself in an ideal landing spot. Although he shared a backfield with the talented Joe Mixon at Oklahoma, Perine acquitted himself well by leading the Sooners in carries in 2016. Perine has not been deployed heavily in the passing game, but alongside established passing down specialist Chris Thompson in Washington, this skill is not necessary.
Perine’s main competition for high leverage touches is Rob Kelley. Not to denigrate Kelley, but I expect Perine to command early down and goal line touches coming out of training camp.
After looking deeper at the Washington RB landscape this makes sense. Kelley was not particularly efficient in 2016, recording 4.4 yards per touch (No. 57) despite dabbling behind the fourth-ranked offensive line per PlayerProfiler.com.
Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC)
The simple fact is that Leonard Fournette’s high draft position affords him an immediate opportunity in Jacksonville. Granted, this is not an Ezekiel Elliott type situation from a year ago.
Fournette finds himself locked behind a below average offensive line, receiving handoffs from the inconsistent Blake Bortles. The draft addition of OT Cam Robinson may improve the line, but it will still be middling.
However, the touch volume Fournette will accrue provides a delightful floor. Also, Fournette is stealthily adept at contributing in the reception department. This is evidenced by Fournette’s 11.9-percent College Target Share (82nd-percentile) per PlayerProfiler.com. Fournette has all the makings of a steady RB2 this year in fantasy and is an RB1 in our hearts.
Jeremy McNichols (RB – TB)
After being unceremoniously selected in the fifth round of the NFL Draft, McNichols finds himself in a tantalizing offense. Doug Martin can be released at any time with no penalty and will be suspended for the initial four games of 2017. Although useful, Jacquizz Rodgers and Charles Sims have displayed they cannot reliably carry a large workload.
If nothing else, McNichols has displayed wild success when deployed in the bell cow role. While at Boise State, the McNichols roughed up opponents all the way to a 41.4-percent College Dominator (89th-percentile) and a 10.9-percent College Target Share (75th– percentile) per PlayerProfiler.com.
In conjunction with this rare production, McNichols’ also possesses supreme athleticism. It would be unrealistic to expect McNichols to be entrusted with early opportunity, but he can produce RB2 numbers in a David Johnson mold, if the seas part.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
Do not dismiss Alvin Kamara because of the presence of Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram. Just consider yourself warned. For one thing, Kamara profiles as the primary receiving option out of the backfield.
Given that Peterson lacks the raw receiving ability of Kamara, and Ingram cannot match Kamara’s explosiveness this expectation is reasonable. At Tennessee, Kamara recorded a 14-percent College Target Share (90th percentile) per PlayerProfiler.com. Also, Sean Peyton has shown an affinity for directing touches away from Ingram.
Now Kamara does not have an extensive history of production at the college level. However, as Kamara bounced between three different teams, developing comfortability with his coaching staff’s hurt his opportunity share. As a prospect, Kamara reminds me of Devonta Freeman in some ways.
Like Freeman, Kamara possesses outlier elusiveness despite mediocre athletic measurables. Freeman also lacked an impressive history of college production but was productive on an efficiency basis. Remember, in New Orleans, the receiving RB role regularly translates to RB2 seasons and this year Kamara will sneak in an RB3 campaign.
Corey Davis (WR – TEN)
The first WR off the board in the NFL Draft, Corey Davis, represents a true WR1 for the ascending Marcus Mariota. As an aside, Mariota has to be considered a top-five QB option in 2017. Despite Davis’ future running routes next to the ever under-appreciated Rishard Matthews, he can hog targets immediately.
A key predictor of NFL success is evidence of early production in college. By this measure, Davis must be considered a phenom given his 18.7 Breakout Age (95th-percentile) per PlayerProfiler.com. Though Davis will be a focal point in Tennessee, the WR landscape has such great depth that I see Davis only as a low-end WR3 in 2017.
Conspicuous By Their Absence
- Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
The Cincinnati offensive line projects to be below average and the offensive skill positions are stacked. Yes, Mixon is incredibly talented and carving out a significant share of the touches is possible, but his only likely source of upside is touchdowns. - Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
Yawn, hard pass. The Rams haven’t hit rock bottom yet. - Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)
The situation for 2017 is brutal. Cook’s upside is RB3 territory. - Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
Not sure Williams is a better option than Tyrell Williams at this point. I am sure Keenan Allen is a better option. - John Ross (WR – CIN)
A.J. Green is the alpha dog, Tyler Eifert is the touchdown cheat code, and Ross will help his real football team much more than fantasy owners in 2017.
Dynasty Long Game Buys
- Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
The WR3 chair behind Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson has Godwin’s name on it. Please note that Godwin has athleticism and big play ability coming out of his ears. Jameis Winston, your move. - O.J. Howard (TE – TB)
Find me someone that doesn’t like Howard, and I’ll show you a liar. - Curtis Samuel (WR – CAR)
When Samuel enters the Carolina locker room for the first time do you think he is worried about Kelvin Benjamin or Devin Funchess? Nope. Now that I think about it, putting Samuel in this section was a clerical mistake. Move Curtis Samuel into your impact rookies for 2017. Only Cam Newton can stop him now. - David Njoku (TE – CLE)
His name literally translates as “Beloved No Joke.” To bring you the previous analysis, I spent four weeks studying etymology online. You’re welcome.
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Nate Aucker is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @nathanaucker.
