If you haven’t heard yet, DraftKings is running a brand-new Team Pick’em game type that’s FREE to enter. In Week 1, there is $1 Million in cash prizes to be divvied up! Below is a quick summary of the challenge which you’ll quickly see is ultra-simple to play.
- Predict the outright winner of 15 games in Week 1
- Win cash prizes if you get more than half your picks right
- $1 Million total in cash prizes will be awarded
Note: Eligibility restriction apply. See DraftKings website for details
This piece is intended to give you things to look for and consider in each matchup while also highlighting my two favorite picks and a differentiator pick. A differentiator selection opens things up from the obvious top picks. In fact, this week’s is an underdog I expect to win on the road. Below you’ll also see spreads for the games just as a reference. As mentioned, the contest requires you to pick outright winners regardless of final score and spread.
Play FREE to win your share of the $1 million prize pool
Top Plays
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Spread: NO -9.5
Jameis Winston is suspended for this game and the first three of the year. Mark Ingram is suspended for the Saints as well, but Alvin Kamara should do a-okay if he’s asked to take on a larger role after his amazing rookie season. Drew Brees wasn’t asked to do as much last year thanks to the Saints defense going from one of the worst in 2016 to one of the best last year. The Saints are the biggest favorites in Week 1, and that’s for good reason. There’s no reason to overthink this pick.
Pick: Saints
LAR at Oakland
Spread: LAR -4
With Khalil Mack being traded, an already putrid defense now looks even worse. The Rams added stud pieces to their defense, giving defensive mastermind Wade Phillips the players necessary to help their defense catch up to their explosive offense that led the NFL in scoring last year. The spread seems light here (and might widen as the weekend approaches with the trade of Mack), and the Rams should steamroll the host Raiders.
Pick: Rams
Differentiator
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Spread: IND -2.5
Andrew Luck is back, but beyond T.Y. Hilton, there’s a serious lack of playmakers for him to air it out to. The backfield is inexperienced and a huge question mark, and this says nothing of the fact that it’s unclear how Luck will fair in his first meaningful football game since January 1, 2017. Andy Dalton‘s an erratic – putting it friendly – quarterback, but he flashes at times, and the Colts defense projects to once again be below-average. Dalton went 17-29 for 243 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions through the air against them last year in a 24-23 win at home. A healthy Tyler Eifert and field-stretching John Ross will complement A.J. Green and the backfield duo of Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard nicely, and their defense was roughly average ranking 17th in Football Outsiders DVOA in 2017. On paper, the Bengals look like the team with fewer question marks and a better roster. I’ll take them outright to win on the road in Week 1 as a small underdog.
Pick: Bengals
Other Games
Buffalo at Baltimore
Spread: BAL -7.5
The Ravens are sizable favorites at home against the visiting Bills. Buffalo’s just announced their starting quarterback, Nathan Peterman, over the promising rookie, Josh Allen, and the second-year signal caller will have his hands full with Baltimore’s defense. Like the Bills, the Ravens traded up to select a quarterback in the first-round of the NFL Draft, but Lamar Jackson is No. 3 on the depth chart, and Joe Flacco will continue to lead the offense that features a completely overhauled receiving corps. Baltimore’s strength remains their defense, and this contest has low-scoring affair written all over it. The uglier the better for the Bills odds of springing an upset, because it means Baltimore’s offense will also be wallowing in the mud with their own.
Houston at New England
Spread: NE -6
The scoring should be at the opposite end of the spectrum in this contest. Last year, Houston went into New England and lost a 36-33 shootout in Week 3, and they return once again led by their electric quarterback. Now that the NFL – and most importantly in this case, Bill Belichick – has had a full offseason to look at tape of dual-threat quarterback Deshaun Watson, will he fall into a sophomore slump? He has ample weapons at his disposal in the passing attack, namely DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, to give New England’s defense – no longer coached by Matt Patricia, who left to become Detroit’s head coach – headaches. New England’s tough at home, though, and they have their own matchup headache in the form of Rob Gronkowski, as well as field-stretcher and No. 1 receiver Chris Hogan, and the defending NFL MVP, Tom Brady, leading the offense. One matchup that could lead to Houston springing the upset in New England is the Texans defensive line versus the Patriots offensive line. Left tackle Nate Soldier departed in free agency, and first-round pick offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn will miss the season due to a torn Achilles.
San Francisco at Minnesota
Spread: MIN -6.5
San Francisco’s backfield was dealt a blow with the season-ending injury to off-season addition Jerick McKinnon. However, their outlook this season is much brighter at this point than it was opening last year thanks to the presence of Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers closed 2017 with five straight wins in Jimmy G’s five starts, but they’re road underdogs against last year’s NFC Championship Game loser. The Vikings are loaded on defense, and they’ll be led by free-agent addition Kirk Cousins on offense. Cousins signed a lucrative deal to replace 2017-breakout surprise Case Keenum, and he has a pair of stud receivers in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to pick the visiting 49ers apart with. The backfield will get a shot in the arm with the healthy return of second-year back Dalvin Cook, too. However, they’re banged up along the offensive line. Can the 49ers exploit the banged up offensive line and slow down Minnesota’s talented skill position players? This could be a lower scoring slugfest than even the total suggests if Minnesota’s patchwork offensive line stumbles. Of course, Minnesota’s talented defense makes it possible for them to come out victorious even if that turns out to be the case.
Tennessee at Miami
Spread: TEN -1
The Dolphins welcome back Ryan Tannehill after missing all of last season, and the bar’s low for him to outperform what Miami got from their quarterbacks last year. The Titans reached the playoffs last year, but they have a new head coach, Mike Vrabel, and new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur will look to get Marcus Mariota back on the positive development path after he regressed last year. On paper, the Titans have more talent than the Dolphins, so it’s not surprising to see them as favorites – albeit almost as small of a favorite as possible – despite being on the road.
Jacksonville at NYG
Spread: JAC -3
The Giants “earned” the second pick in this year’s NFL Draft as a result of a disastrous 2017 season that included losing star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to a season-ending injury early in the year, and Jacksonville gave New England all they could handle in the AFC Championship game in a losing effort. Yet, the spread is small for this contest at MetLife Stadium, and the Giants look to rebound this year with a healthy – and recently well paid – OBJ, exciting rookie do-it-all back Saquon Barkley, and new blindside Eli-protector Nate Solder, among the reasons for optimism about a major turnaround. Jacksonville’s defense remains elite, but if the Giants offense is able to hang some points early, can Blake Bortles do more than game manage and lead his club back? The Jaguars hope not to find out and instead ride second-year workhorse Leonard Fournette and their star-studded defense to victory.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Spread: PIT -4
The Browns won zero games last year, and they host their division rival Steelers to open this year’s campaign. That’s a tough recipe for getting off the schneid. However, it could be less difficult if Le’Veon Bell‘s holdout carries into Pittsburgh’s first game or results in him seeing a significantly reduced workload. Of course, even without him, Pittsburgh’s passing attack is stacked and headlined by the NFL’s best receiver, Antonio Brown. For what it’s worth, though, Roethlisberger has massive home/road splits throughout his career that favor playing at home, so adding to his plate could make this one interesting if he continues to underperform on the road.
Kansas City at LAC
Spread: LAC -3.5
Patrick Mahomes will be challenged in just his second start, and first as Kansas City’s top signal caller. Will the strong-armed quarterback be able to handle Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram breathing down his neck on the road? He has an embarrassment of riches in terms of skill-position talent to work with. Furthermore, the Chiefs won both matchups against the Chargers last year totaling 54 points to just 23 from the Chargers.
Seattle at Denver
Spread: DEN -3
Seattle’s offense goes as Russell Wilson goes, but the club hopes to ease his burden with an improved running game. They didn’t do much to improve the personnel on the offensive line and will be challenged in Week 1 by a defense that Football Outsiders ranked third defending the run last year. Denver signed Case Keenum to upgrade their revolving door at quarterback, and his job will be made easier if Emmanuel Sanders bounces back from an injury-plagued 2017. Denver has their own running game questions after jettisoning last year’s leading rusher, C.J. Anderson. They did add Royce Freeman to the backfield mix with the 71st overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. With new pieces at quarterback and running back, Denver will need them to gel quickly to win as favorites at home to start off the 2018 campaign.
Dallas at Carolina
Spread: CAR -3
Dallas is sort of banking on addition by subtraction helping Dak Prescott revert back to or build on his rookie form after an underwhelming sophomore season. Jason Witten retired, and they cut former top-flight wideout Dez Bryant. Allen Hurns was signed as a free agent, and Michael Gallup was picked with the 81st pick in this year’s NFL Draft to help fill the voids in the passing attack. Realistically, though, Prescott will probably benefit most from a full season of Ezekiel Elliott working as the bell-cow and focal point of the offense. FO ranked Carolina a stout fifth defending the run last year, so Zeke will have some tough sledding in Week 1, perhaps forcing Prescott to demonstrate he can take some heat off of the running game with his revamped cast of weapons to throw to. Speaking of weapons in the passing attack, Cam Newton got a big one with the selection of wideout D.J. Moore in the first round of this year’s draft, and after his reliable tight end Greg Olsen was limited to only seven games last year, getting him back this year will provide the passing attack a shot in the arm. C.J. Anderson joins second-year back Christian McCaffrey in Carolina’s backfield, and the pieces are there for an explosive offense. Will Cam’s below-average accuracy and interception issues (16 last year and 30 in 31 games played over the last two years) undermine the offense, though? Can new offensive coordinator Norv Turner coax more out of the offense? The defense remains talented and might be able to carry the team to victory even if the offense struggles.
Washington at Arizona
Spread: ARI -1
Both Washington and Arizona will be rolling out new starting quarterbacks this season. Alex Smith replaces Cousins, and Sam Bradford is the new starter in the desert after Carson Palmer retired. The Cardinals will also have a new leader on the sideline with former head coach Bruce Arians retiring and being replaced by former Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Washington hoped to bolster their running game with the drafting of Derrius Guice, but he suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. They’ll instead look for late free-agent addition Adrian Peterson to do the bulk of the early-down work with returning Chris Thompson complimenting him as the explosive satellite back. Arizona’s backfield has an even more explosive returning back in David Johnson. Both teams have numerous questions to answer out of the chute, and this contest is hovering around a pick’em.
Chicago at Green Bay
Spread: GB -7.5
Green Bay might have a slightly tougher time beating the visiting Bears if all-world addition Khalil Mack is ready to contribute for his new team. Aaron Rodgers remains arguably the most gifted quarterback in the NFL, and the team essentially swapped in tight end Jimmy Graham for wideout Jordy Nelson this offseason. The Bears defense is quite good even if it doesn’t get the recognition of other top defenses, and their offense will look to pick things up this year with new offensive-minded head coach Matt Nagy. Mitchell Trubisky was ho-hum at best as a rookie, but it’s hard to fault him for failing to light the world on fire when the cupboards were nearly empty for him in terms of weapons to work with. The Bears have made a point of beefing up the offense with the additions of Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton. Can Nagy and Trubisky replicate the Rams 2017 leap? The Packers defense was well below-average last year, but new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine provides hope for significant improvement.
NYJ at Detroit
Spread: DET -6.5
Last off-season’s chatter was that the Jets might go winless. They won five games and were generally competitive most weeks despite being in an obvious rebuild. Their rebuild now includes rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. Asking a rookie to go on the road and win his first NFL start is a big ask, hence the spread favoring the Lions. Detroit fired head coach Jim Caldwell after they went 9-7 last year, and they’ve replaced him with Matt Patricia. The track record for Belichick assistants as head coaches at the NFL level isn’t exactly as glowing as some other all-time great head coach’s assistants departing for their own head coaching gigs. Will Patricia buck the trend? Detroit’s offense will have a familiar voice running things with offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter retained on the staff, though, so the entire coaching staff wasn’t overhauled. Detroit has struggled mightily to run the ball in recent seasons, and they hope to fix that this season. The Jets were much stronger against the run than the pass last year, per Football Outsiders defensive rankings, so it might be wise for them to lean a bit more heavily on the passing attack anyway.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is JoshShep50) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
