Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 10

by Moody | @EricNMoody | Featured Writer
Nov 8, 2018

Drew Brees may be playing the best football of his career

How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us with a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective.

They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged, and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines. Do not stop reading now because we will discuss five games that offer the most upside from a DFS perspective for Sunday contests.

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Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Money Line Home Money Line
November 11, 2018 1:00 PM Saints -4.5 at Bengals 54.0 -222 +199

The Saints are 1-4 straight up and 0-5 against the spread in their last five games against the Bengals. The Bengals, on the other hand, are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as home underdogs. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

  • Drew Brees is currently the fantasy QB5 and averaging 292 passing yards per game. He faces a Bengals defense (319.4) that leads the NFL in opponent passing yards per game. Brees is the preferred play in this matchup.

Wide Receivers

  • Michael Thomas remains a weekly must start. The fantasy WR3 is averaging 9.9 targets per game.
  • Tre’Quan Smith has not been given enough targets since Ted Ginn‘s season-ending surgery to be fantasy relevant. It is in the realm of possibilities that this could change in a potential shootout against the Bengals. He is a risky flex option, but could pay dividends from a DFS perspective if he goes boom.
  • Benjamin Watson is a viable tight end option in this matchup. He has a scored a touchdown in two of his last three games, but will not command a high number of targets.
  • Tyler Boyd has averaged 8.25 targets per game this season. He will have a sizable target share while A.J. Green is out due to a toe injury. It remains to be seen how Boyd handles being the No. 1 receiving option.
  • John Ross returned to practice on Monday for Cincinnati and is an intriguing WR3 or flex option for DFS players this week.

Running Backs

  • Alvin Kamara has scored 27 touchdowns in 26 games. He is averaging 20 touches per game this season.
  • Joe Mixon is averaging 21 touches per games in six games played this season.
Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Money Line Home Money Line
November 11, 2018 1:00 PM at Buccaneers -3.0 Redskins 51.5 +138 -153

Did you know the total has gone over in eight of the Buccaneers last nine games with an average combined scored 62 points? The total has gone under in nine of the Redskins’ last 12 games. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick picked up where he left off prior to his benching in Week 4. He threw for 243 passing yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions with a 60 percent completion percentage in last week’s loss to the Panthers. The Buccaneers running game has been inconsistent all season and in many scenarios, they abandon it due to game flow. Fitzpatrick and the passing game are likely to be leaned on again considering the projected point total of this matchup.

Receivers

  • Mike Evans struggled mightily last week against the Panthers despite seeing 10 targets. He has been very effective all season, but finished the game with only one reception while being contained by underrated cornerback James Bradberry. Evans has still averaged more fantasy points in the four games with Fitzpatrick under center from start to finish than with Jameis Winston. He is tremendous DFS value, but is likely to be shadowed by Redskins cornerback
  • DeSean Jackson has failed to top two receptions and 35 yards in two of the last three games. He will have an opportunity to bounce back against the Redskins defense if they focus on taking away Evans. Jackson is a solid WR3 with upside in this matchup.
  • O.J. Howard is averaging 16 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. The only tight end with more Air Yards over that time frame is Travis Kelce. Howard has the potential to finish as the No. 1 fantasy tight end in Week 10.
  • Maurice Harris has the opportunity to emerge as the Redskins No. 1 receiver given the injuries to Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson. Did you know over the last five games he has led the Washington WRs in targets (29) and has the second most air yards (253)? The Buccaneers defense is allowing 307.1 passing yards per game and are vulnerable to slot receivers.
  • Jordan Reed has not topped 50 receiving yards since Week 3. He does have a great matchup and given the state of the Redskins receivers could finally go boom for fantasy players.

Running Backs

  • Adrian Peterson is a viable option this week. Many offenses attack the Buccaneers through the air, but the Redskins may lean heavily on the running game given their depth at wide receiver. The Redskins have lost offensive guards Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao for the season which is another hurdle that Peterson has to overcome. He has a high ceiling with a usable floor in this matchup which ultimately comes down to game flow considering that Peterson is not often used as a receiver out of the backfield.
Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Money Line Home Money Line
November 11, 2018 4:25 PM at Rams -10.0 Seahawks 51.0 +371 -432

The Rams are 5-0 straight up their last five games as a double-digit favorite. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

  • Jared Goff is averaging 312 passing yards and 21.6 fantasy points per game. I prefer him over Russell Wilson in this division matchup.

Receivers

  • Robert Woods has had 70 receiving yards or more in every game this season with a 25 percent target share.
  • Brandin Cooks is averaging 84 receiving yards per game this season with a 24 percent target share and leads the Rams receivers in Air Yards (882).
  • Cooper Kupp leads the Rams with 287 yards after the catch and owns a 20 percent target share.

Running Backs

  • Todd Gurley is averaging 136 total yards per game this season. He has the athletic ability to transcend any matchup.
Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Money Line Home Money Line
November 11, 2018 1:00 PM Falcons -4.0 at Browns 50.5 -201 +181

Quarterbacks

  • Matt Ryan is averaging 335 passing yards per game and is in the midst of an MVP caliber season. The Browns defense is allowing 285 passing yards per game this season.

Receivers

  • Julio Jones has the third most targets (91) entering Week 10. The only receivers with more are Adam Thielen (105) and Jarvis Landry (100).
  • Calvin Ridley has solidified himself as the Falcons No. 2 receiver, but be mindful of his target volume. He is only averaging 5.5 targets per game this season.
  • Austin Hooper has two games of 10 or more targets and five targets or less in the other six games. This type of variance in target volume gives him a boom or bust quality, but it is a risk worth taking from a DFS perspective given the favorable matchup.
  • Jarvis Landry is in the midst of one of his least efficient seasons, but he is still seeing a high number of targets on a per game basis.

Running Backs

  • Nick Chubb has one of the highest market shares of carries amongst running backs since Carlos Hyde was traded back in Week 7.
  • Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith are excellent options.  The Browns have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (138.9) and an NFL-high 14 rushing touchdowns against opposing running backs.
Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Money Line Home Money Line
November 11, 2018 1:00 PM at Chiefs -16.5 Cardinals 50.0 +1000 -2000

The Cardinals are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games on the road against teams with winning records. The Chiefs are huge favorites against a cumbersome Cardinals team. Here are the players I recommend you target at various positions.

Quarterbacks

  • Patrick Mahomes is averaging 322.3 passing yards and 3.22 passing touchdowns per game. He remains an elite QB1 who can be started regardless of the matchup.

Receivers

  • Tyreek Hill is averaging 7.6 targets, 5.1 receptions, and 81.7 receiving yards per game this season. He also leads the Chiefs in Air Yards and should be deployed into lineups by players willing to absorb his salary.
  • Travis Kelce is on pace to set career highs in multiple statistical categories this season. He is leading the Chiefs in targets with 78.
  • Larry Fitzgerald was targeted 12 times in Byron Leftwich‘s first game as the Cardinals offensive coordinator against the 49ers back in Week 8. This bodes well for his fantasy outlook moving forward.
  • Christian Kirk is an intriguing option in this matchup. He had the second most targets (7) in their last game prior to the bye week.

Running Backs

  • Kareem Hunt has averaged 20 opportunities (rushing attempts combined with targets) per game this season. He has the potential to finish as the top fantasy running back in a favorable matchup against the Cardinals soft run defense.
  • David Johnson has averaged 18.25 touches per game this season. He recent usage as a receiver out of the backfield the last two games is encouraging. The Chiefs defense has allowed an NFL high 634 receiving yards to running backs this season.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!

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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.

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