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The Primer: Week 12 Edition (Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 12 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Going back about 10 years ago, I remember what used to be my favorite day of the week. Each Thursday, my local radio station 670 The Score would do a segment with Paul Charchian talking fantasy football for an hour. Sports radio was always among my favorite things to listen to, as the music on the radio gets stale rather quickly, but the fantasy football talk on that show was the highlight of my week.

Fast-forward a few years and I discovered podcasts, which essentially changed my daily routine. I no longer needed to listen to the radio and all the commercials that were required. With podcasts, you listen on-demand, whenever you want, with no commercials.

Why am I telling you this story? Well, it has been brought to my attention a few times in the last year that not everyone knows about podcasts, how they work, and how you get them. I have a friend who knew I did podcasts but had no clue how to access them and if they cost anything.

One, they’re free. Two, you can access them in multiple ways. If you want to listen in your car, you can do that through your mobile device. Most phones nowadays have apps built into them with podcasts, but here are the links for those who can’t find them:

Apple
Google Play
Tune-In Radio
Stitcher

Those are the ways to listen on your phone. If you want to listen on your computer, that’s no problem. You can listen to our podcasts right through the website, right here. For the FantasyPros podcast, we have four episodes a week where we deliver as much information we can in each hour-long show. When it comes to fantasy football, knowledge is a way to reduce variance. I’m on every show, trying to guide you through the fantasy season, while my co-hosts Bobby Sylvester and Dan Harris try to keep me from going on tangents too often. We also bring in some of the most respected analysts in the industry to keep things fresh. Listen to podcasts, profit.

Matchup Links:
NYG at PHI | JAC at BUF | SEA at CAR | OAK at BAL | SF at TB | CLE at CIN | NE at NYJ | ARI at LAC | PIT at DEN | MIA at IND | GB at MIN | TEN at HOU | CHI at DET | WAS at DAL | ATL at NO

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In case you’ve missed it, I’ve been going back into The Primer on Saturday morning trying to update you on the injury reports that impact your decisions. While I cannot write a whole new article, I do talk about a lot of these things on our Sunday morning livestream, which is FREE to everyone. It’s where I discuss all the latest injury news and then take your questions live from 11-12am EST. Click here to be taken to our YouTube page where you can get notifications when we go live.

If you’re new here, here’s what you can expect out of this article each and every week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. Whether it be season-long advice, DFS advice, or wide receiver/cornerback matchups, it’s all covered. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button each week. Who should be in your lineup this week?

And before I forget, us here at FantasyPros hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving with your families!

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 46.0
Line: PHI by 6.0

QBs
Eli Manning:
Fresh off his bye, Manning has now completed 36-of-49 passes for 419 yards and five touchdowns, all but locking him in as the starter for the foreseeable future. His completion percentage (69.0) is easily the best of his career (closest is 63.1 percent), while his 7.7 yards per attempt is his highest mark since way back in 2011. If you’re paying attention to QB Rating, his 96.6 is the best of his career. Now a matchup on the road against the Eagles whose secondary is ailing? Can he be trusted? Over the last five times he’s played on the road against them, here are his stat lines (most recent first): 366/3/2, 356/1/3, 189/1/2, 151/0/0, 246/0/0. So, he’s thrown for at least 350 yards in each of the last two games against them, but you’d hardly call his past a success against them in Philadelphia. On top of that, the Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Saints in New Orleans, and we should know better than to expect back-to-back horrid performances from the Super Bowl champs. They’ve played five home games this year, and of them, they’ve allowed two of those quarterbacks to finish top-10. Cam Newton and Dak Prescott, who both totaled at least 4.9 fantasy points on the ground. Neither of them threw for more than 270 yards or two touchdowns, which kind of shows the ceiling they’ve allowed through the air. The lack of talent/injuries in the secondary is tempting and it puts Manning in the middling to high-end QB2 territory, but he’s far from a sure thing on the road as a six-point underdog.

Carson Wentz: What in the world happened to Wentz last week? The process for those who started him was right, though the results were not kind. After not having a multi-interception game since Week 13 of 2016, he threw three of them against an improving Saints defense. After throwing for at least 278 yards and two touchdowns in each of the previous six games, we’ll have to shake it off as a bad game. The Giants aren’t a defense that many have had success against, despite the perception that they’ve been bad. They’ve yet to allow a quarterback finish better than the QB8 this season and have played against Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Wentz, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton. Wentz completed 72 percent of his passes against them in Week 6 while throwing three touchdowns, so it’s clear he had no issues moving the ball. He also played against them in Week 3 of last year but finished with a measly 176 yards and one touchdown, and that game was in Philadelphia. The Giants have really struggled against the run without Damon Harrison and have allowed three straight 100-yard rushers, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see the Eagles lean on their run-game a bit more this week. Wentz is the only one to throw more than two touchdowns against the Giants, so it’s tempting to expect more, but he’s teetering on the QB1/QB2 radar with so many variables and limited upside in the matchup.

RBs
Saquon Barkley:
The Eagles have been known as a brutal matchup for running backs, though Barkley started the movement that you don’t need to be scared of them, as they’ve now allowed three 100-yard rushers in their last five games. He posted a season-high 229 total yards against them in Week 6 while ripping off quite a few highlight-reel plays. Running backs are averaging just 22.4 touches per game (16.2 carries, 6.2 receptions) against the Eagles, which is the second-fewest in the league, and the Eagles figure to slow down their pace this week which could create even less plays for the slow-paced Giants, who averaged just 60.4 plays per game (sixth-fewest). We did find out that linebacker Jordan Hicks is likely to miss some time with a calf injury, which does upgrade Barkley’s matchup. He’s totaled at least 94 yards in every game this year and has scored at least one touchdown in 7-of-10 games, so he’s an every-week RB1, though the only concern is that he’s on the road against a desperate Eagles team. The oddsmakers have also projected the Giants for just 20 points, which is never a good thing. Barkley should be played as an RB1 in season-long leagues but approach with some caution in DFS.

Josh Adams, Wendell Smallwood, and Corey Clement: I’ve stayed far away from this backfield all season, but I’m buying into Adams as a legitimate play in Week 12. In a week that was filled with disappointments, Adams was the lone bright spot for the Eagles totaling 72 yards and a touchdown on 10 touches against one of the league’s best run defenses. The part that makes me feel comfortable is that he saw six targets, which would signify he’s somewhat gamescript-proof. Of the 18 total possible carries/targets, he totaled 13 of them while Clement saw just four, and Smallwood has just one lone carry. The Giants traded defensive tackle prior to Week 8, which hasn’t worked out too well for them, as they’ve allowed back-to-back-to-back 100-yard rushers against them, and it’s not as if Adrian Peterson, Matt Breida, and Peyton Barber were the stiffest competition. Since losing Harrison, they’ve allowed 406 yards on 77 carries (5.27 yards per carry) and five total touchdowns (3 rushing, 2 receiving) to running backs over the last three weeks. Look, I understand that it’s worrisome playing a running back from the Eagles, but if you’re not going to use Adams here, you might as well drop him. He’s got the looks of a solid RB2 who has RB1 upside in this matchup. Smallwood can safely be dropped, while Clement is teetering on that point as well, though he’s one injury away from a bigger role (he can still be dropped in most 12-team leagues).

WRs
Odell Beckham:
It was a low-volume game for the entire passing offense, so seeing Beckham walk away with 85 total yards and a touchdown should be considered a success. He’ll likely see a bit more volume this week against an Eagles secondary that’s been left starting Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox at cornerback. Maddox is now expected to miss this game with a knee injury, while Douglas also exited the game against the Saints with a knee injury and is considered day-to-day. Meanwhile, they also lost their starting slot cornerback Sidney Jones for multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. This may sound odd, but the Eagles really need Jalen Mills back. One thing is certain… Beckham can go bananas on this secondary if they let him. They may have undrafted free agent rookie Chandon Sullivan and 2015 undrafted free agent De’Vante Bausby as their starters this week. No matter who is out there, Beckham is an elite WR1 play who would only struggle if Manning lost some of his sight and part of his arm during the six days in between games.

Sterling Shepard: Similar to Beckham, Shepard suffered from lack of volume last week. He saw just two targets against the Bucs, but that won’t be the case against the Eagles. With Sidney Jones out a few weeks, the Eagles have turned to Cre’Von LeBlanc in the slot, who allowed two catches for 24 yards and a touchdown on three targets in his coverage last week. While with the Bears the last two seasons, LeBlanc played rather well in a backup role, allowing just an 83.9 QB Rating in his coverage on 72 targets. It’s a matchup that isn’t as good as Beckham’s on the perimeter, but Shepard is talented enough where he’ll get his own consideration. The silver-lining of hope with him is that the Eagles double-teamed Michael Thomas last week and forced the Saints to go to someone else in the offense, which the Saints had no trouble doing. If the Eagles give Beckham the same treatment, it’d be Shepard who goes off. Consider him an upside WR3/4 option this week.

Alshon Jeffery: He saw just five targets against Marshon Lattimore last week, so totaling four catches for 33 yards isn’t too shocking, especially when we know that Wentz struggled. The last time these teams met, we saw Jeffery destroy them for 8/74/2 when the Giants chose to not shadow him with Janoris Jenkins. Not that Jenkins is a shutdown cornerback this year, but it was odd to say the least. Again, even if they choose to put Jenkins on him, he’s now allowed seven touchdowns on just 63 targets in coverage this year, including a 73 percent completion-rate and 13.6 yards per reception. His seven touchdowns in coverage are tied with Malcolm Butler for the worst in the NFL. There have been just four wide receivers who’ve totaled at least eight targets against the Giants, and each of them totaled at least six catches for 74 yards, including two 100-yard games. Prior to Week 11, Jeffery had seen at least eight targets in 5-of-6 games. He should be plugged back in as a solid WR2 this week.

Golden Tate: Doug Pederson did say that Tate would be much more involved against the Saints, and while that was true, his five-catch, 48-yard performance was very Agholor-esque. Still, he’s a full-time wide receiver in the offense, so we have to consider him as a legitimate fantasy option. The Giants have had rookie free agent Grant Haley covering the slot the last three weeks, and in that time he’s allowed 7-of-9 passing for 76 yards and a touchdown (Adam Humphries last week). Tate should be able to take advantage of the matchup with the inexperienced cornerback, and knowing he saw a team-high eight targets last week bodes well for his fantasy floor. He still ranked third in snaps behind both Jeffery and Agholor, but he played double the snaps (18 to 36) from Week 10 to Week 11, so that shouldn’t last much longer, if at all. If the Eagles exploit matchups like they should, Tate should be a WR3 at minimum this week.

Nelson Agholor: We knew it was going to be tough for him with Tate on the roster, but zero catches against the Saints and Eli Apple? He saw just two targets in the game, but with Tate playing double the snaps than his first game with the team meant Agholor was almost exclusively a perimeter wide receiver, which is where he’s really struggled over his career. After that performance, we cannot put him into lineups with any confidence. He totaled 91 yards in their first meeting, but that was while playing most of his snaps in the slot, and a lot of that came on one 58-yard catch, as he had just two catches for 33 yards the rest of the game. Agholor is not worth considering in season-long leagues and isn’t even worth a dart throw in tournaments.

TEs
Evan Engram:
We knew it was a good matchup against the Bucs and we also knew that there was target risk with Engram in a game where the Giants had so many viable options, so walking away with two catches for 66 yards makes plenty of sense. The Eagles aren’t a team many have attacked with tight ends, as they’ve been the third-toughest matchup for tight ends this year. They’ve allowed just a 61.8 percent completion rate (24th), 6.73 yards per target (26th), and two touchdowns (28th) to the position. The only tight end who finished top-12 against them was O.J. Howard who caught just three passes, though one of them was a 75-yard touchdown. In the end, it’s just not a week you should feel pressured to play Engram, as he’s just a high-end TE2 in a bad matchup.

Zach Ertz: He came into the game against the Saints with no games that netted less than six targets, so when you see he saw just three targets, it’s a shocker, especially when you figure the gamescript would’ve helped. The time of possession in that game was ridiculous, as the Saints had the ball for 62.6 percent of the game. The Giants average just 47.8 percent time of possession, so that’s not going to happen this week. The Giants have done a solid job with tight ends this year, as there’ve been just three tight ends who’ve finished top-12 against them all season, though Ertz was one of them when he totaled 7/43/1 on nine targets. In fact, all three tight ends who finished top-12 required at least nine targets to get there. From an efficiency standpoint, the Giants allow the fifth-fewest points per target (1.51) to tight ends, so Ertz will need the targets to come back this week. You shouldn’t overreact to one bad week against what might be the best defense in the league against tight ends, so trot Ertz back out there as a high-end TE1. You don’t need to spend up for him in DFS cash lineups, but he’s always worth a shot in tournaments.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

Total: 37.5
Line: JAX by 3.0

QBs
Blake Bortles:
The Jaguars have done their best to hide Bortles behind their run-game, but they just couldn’t do it long enough against the Steelers, as Bortles couldn’t complete a pass when they needed him to. He dropped back to pass just 26 times against the Steelers, his second-lowest total of the season, though he still managed to fumble twice, losing one of them. Against the Bills, the Jaguars are likely to do the same exact thing, though the Bills don’t offer the firepower on offense to come back that the Steelers do. Since the start of Week 3, there’s been just one quarterback who’s finished as a top-18 quarterback against the Bills, and that was Andrew Luck who is on a historic streak right now. Including Luck’s four-touchdown game against them, the Bills have allowed just eight passing touchdowns over their last eight games while intercepting eight passes. Due to the lack of dropping back to pass, Bortles has also lost his luster to run the ball the last two weeks, as he’s totaled just 25 yards on four carries. He’s likely on a very short leash as the starting quarterback, so he’s nowhere near the streaming radar this week.

Josh Allen: We’re likely to get Allen this week, as he’s been practicing, and Sean McDermott has said he expects Allen to be under center against the Jaguars. The bad news is that you want nothing to do with him. Sure, the Jaguars have allowed three straight 20-point performances to quarterbacks, but they’ve also played Carson Wentz, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger. Their defense played a great game against the Steelers, but were worn out by the end, as the offense went three-and-out on each of their last four possessions. We know better than to trust Allen throwing the ball, as he’s completed just 54 percent of his passes for 6.0 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and five interceptions. Allen can likely deliver a floor with his rushing totals, as the Jaguars run a ton of man-coverage, which should allow him to take advantage of empty spaces on the field. The 206 rushing yards they’ve allowed to quarterbacks ranks as the fourth-most in the NFL, and they’ve allowed three rushing touchdowns to them as well, which ranks as the second-most. Because of that, he might make his way into the low-end QB2 conversation, but that’s about it.

RBs
Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon:
Since returning to the lineup, Fournette has totaled a massive 52 carries and seven receptions. For those counting at home, that’s nearly 30 touches per game. The Bills have improved against the run this year, but they’re far from an elite unit that you need to stay away from. They’ve allowed 4.20 yards per carry on the year and have allowed a touchdown every 19.8 carries, which ranks as the third-most often in the league, behind only the Bucs and Falcons. The crazy part is that the Bills have allowed those numbers without allowing a single run of more than 40 yards this year. They’ve allowed five rushing touchdowns over the last four weeks, though the bye week should’ve allowed them to get a bit healthier. With the game highly unlikely to get away from the Jaguars, there’s not much risk with Fournette this week. You should lock him in as an elite RB1 who should post at least 100 total yards and a touchdown in this game. Yeldon shouldn’t be needed very much, as he’s someone who benefits from negative gamescript. Both him and Carlos Hyde are there to give Fournette breathers, though Yeldon gets more work in the passing-game. Consider Yeldon just a lackluster RB4 who might see just 5-8 touches this game.

LeSean McCoy: What in the world got into the Bills offense before their bye week? After totaling just 24 yards on 24 carries over the previous three games combined, McCoy tagged the Jets for 113 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. It was just the second time all season he’s totaled more than 100 total yards, but it’s a step in the right direction. The fact that Allen is returning should help, as his splits with and without Allen in the lineup are notable. He’s totaled 221 yards on 54 carries (4.09 yards per carry) with Allen as the starter and 159 yards on 57 carries (2.79 yards per carry) without him, and that includes the Jets game. Unfortunately, the Jaguars matchup is a bad one for him, as they’ve allowed just 3.90 yards per carry and 1.33 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the third-lowest in the league. Despite their defense somewhat falling apart, they’ve still held Marlon Mack and James Conner to just 87 total yards with no touchdowns combined. McCoy is nothing more than a high-end RB3 in this game and not one you should feel the absolute need to play, though he’s locked into 15-plus touches.

WRs
Donte Moncrief:
We knew that Moncrief would have his hands full against the Steelers and Joe Haden, but his one-catch, 11-yard performance should remind you why we really don’t want to trust Jaguars receivers. He’s going to see a lot of Tre’Davious White in this matchup, a cornerback who has allowed just a 53 percent completion rate and 10.6 yards per reception in his coverage. A lot of his targets in coverage are against the opponent’s top receiver, which makes his numbers even more impressive. If last week told us anything, it’s that the Jaguars are trying to hide Bortles, which could limit him to 20-25 attempts in this game. This isn’t a week where you should expect big volume from Bortles, so despite Moncrief’s No. 1 role on the team, he’s nothing more than a low-end, unattractive WR4 option in this game.

Dede Westbrook: He’s quietly seen 62 targets this season (30th among wide receivers), though his average depth of target is so small (7.4 yards) that it’s relying on him to do a lot after the catch. His 6.4 yards after the catch ranks 12th among receivers who’ve seen at least 30 targets. The Bills slot cornerback has been Taron Johnson, though he left the game against the Jets with a shoulder injury, so he’s likely going to be questionable for this game. If he’s out, that would leave Rafael Bush to fill his spot, which would be a big upgrade for Westbrook. Bush has allowed an 80 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year with 77 of his 144 yards allowed coming after the catch. If Bortles is throwing the ball, Westbrook is likely the one who should see the most targets, as the Bills have been beat deep (20-plus yards) just 25 times this year, which is the lowest mark in the league. Westbrook should be considered a mediocre WR4/5 if Johnson plays, but can be moved into the upside WR4 range if he sits. He’d be the Jaguars wide receiver I’d prefer in this matchup if you want to play one.

Kelvin Benjamin: This might be the worst part about The Primer, as Benjamin shouldn’t receive any consideration, but he continually sees 5-9 targets, so there’s bound to be someone who asks about him. Benjamin ranks as the second-worst receiver in fantasy with 1.00 fantasy points per target (him and Jermaine Kearse are the only receivers under 1.23), while the Jaguars allow the fourth-fewest points per target (1.53) in the NFL. This is not a good marriage. He’s not playable.

Zay Jones: He’s been the one stepping-up as of late, though going back to Allen likely won’t help his production. During the Week 2-6 time that Allen started, Jones didn’t top four catches in any game and failed to record more than 38 yards in 4-of-5 games. If there’s one thing the Jaguars struggle with, it’s slot receivers, which is where Jones plays most of the time. The Jags did get D.J. Hayden back the last two weeks, as he’d been out since Week 2, so they’re likely to improve in that area of the field as he gets reacclimated. The biggest issue with trusting Jones is more on Allen than anything, so he’s just a low-upside WR6-type option.

TEs
James O’Shaughnessy:
After seeing a season-high six targets in Week 10, we saw O’Shaughnessy suffer to a lack of pass attempts against the Steelers, as he totaled just two targets. He ran 19 pass routes in the game while no other tight end totaled more than five routes, so it’s his job, though this isn’t a week to attack him as a streamer. The Bills have allowed a league-low 56 percent completion rate to tight ends, so when you combine that with Bortles’ inaccuracy, it’s not a great marriage. There’s been no tight end to post more than 55 yards against them this season and it’s the reason we’ve seen just one top-10 performance against them all season. He’d need a touchdown not to completely bust and it’s not as if you want to bet on that considering the Bills have allowed just eight passing touchdowns in their last eight games. He’s not a streamer this week.

Jason Croom: It appears that Charles Clay is still nursing a hamstring injury, so it’d be unwise to rely on his services this week. That leaves the combination of Croom and Logan Thomas to run the routes for Josh Allen. Despite Thomas’ breakout performance against the Bears where he totaled seven catches for 40 yards, he ran just six routes against the Jets and saw one target while Croom ran 12 routes but saw no targets. It’s clearly a situation to avoid, as even Clay hadn’t topped 40 yards with Allen under center. There’s been just two tight ends who’s caught more than three passes against the Jaguars and they were Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. Clearly, you’re not interested in starting any Bills tight end this weekend.

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