Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Total: 44.5
Line: TEN by 3.5
QBs
Jacoby Brissett: Heading out on the road to play the Chargers in Week 1 was no easy task, but Brissett was up for the challenge, completing 21-of-27 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns, though it’s worth noting the Chargers were missing one of their starting cornerbacks in the game, as well as their starting strong safety. The Titans secondary doesn’t have the greatest talent, though their pass-rush was all over Baker Mayfield in Week 1, sacking him five times and forcing three interceptions. Brissett happens to have a much better offensive line in front of him, which should allow him more time, though it’s worth noting that just four quarterbacks were able to finish as top-15 options against the Titans last year (Watson twice, Luck twice, Carson Wentz, and Philip Rivers). I don’t think anyone would put Brissett in that group, though it is worth noting that Luck and Wentz are both part of nearly the same offenses, which is the one Brissett is now commanding. After losing Devin Funchess, the Colts are suddenly short on proven options to pass to, however. Brissett can be used in 2QB formats relatively safely, though I don’t want to put him in as a streamer in 1QB leagues just yet.
Marcus Mariota: Many are saying to themselves right now that Mariota is healthy and that’s why he was bad last year. Let me be clear: He wasn’t great in this game. In fact, simply removing the one pass to Derrick Henry (that he threw at Henry’s feet on a screen) where he gathered all 75 yards after the catch, Mariota’s day would’ve been a mediocre 13-of-23 for 173 yards and two touchdowns. There were plenty of balls he simply missed his wide-open target and was more than just a few yards off in his attempt. He did better than expected when you consider he was without his starting left tackle against a good pass-rush, but make no mistake about it, he was simply competent in this game. The Colts defense didn’t look so hot in Week 1, allowing Philip Rivers to dice them up for 333 yards and three touchdowns, which included a massive 9.8 yards per attempt. We watched 10-of-16 quarterbacks pile up at least 7.0 yards per attempt against the Colts last year, and though Mariota wasn’t one of them, he’s coming back with more weapons than he’s ever had while playing at home. Still, the Colts allowed just 21 passing scores all of last year and allowed just 21.2 points per game (eighth-fewest) while holding opposing quarterbacks to just 3.87 yards per carry. What Rivers did against them in Week 1 gives hope for Mariota, though he’s not someone you should be plugging in as a trusted option just yet. Consider him a middling QB2 who looks much better today than he did a week ago. It also helps the Colts are still without defensive end Jabaal Sheard.
RBs
Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: It’s official: The Colts were blowing smoke about using Mack on more third downs. Mack didn’t see a single target against the Chargers while Hines saw four of them. Mack leads the league in rushing with 174 yards on his massive 25-carry game, but if the Colts should fall behind, you’re going to see some duds out of him. The craziest part of his performance last week was that it required exactly two broken tackles to gain that much yardage. His offensive line is flat-out ridiculous. It’ll need to be against the Titans who just held Nick Chubb to just 84 total scoreless yards on 19 touches. While the Titans allowed just seven rushing touchdowns all last year, Mack scored two of them. He rushed for 119 yards on 25 carries in their second meeting against them after totaling 61 yards on 16 carries in the first one. Now that Mike Vrabel has seen the Frank Reich offense in action multiple times, it should be a bit easier to gameplan. It’s tough to see the Titans turn this game into a blowout, which is what it would take to knock Mack out of the RB2 range. It’s not a great matchup against the team that allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs last year, but Mack should be in lineups as a high volume RB2 this week. Hines played 17 snaps against the Chargers in Week 1, gathering four carries for 13 yards, as well as four targets that netted just four yards. He’s going to have some PPR value in games the Colts fall behind early, though this doesn’t look like one of them.
Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: Remember when I said Henry isn’t going to be very valuable in games the Titans lose or fall behind early? Well, let’s just say I was wrong about the Titans losing in Week 1 to the Browns. They won and Henry crushed. His work in the passing-game may have been a bit overstated, as he caught just one ball, though he made it count, taking it 75 yards to the house. Oddsmakers have him as a favorite this week, which is always a good thing, though the Colts run defense has been legit ever since Frank Reich/Matt Eberflus took over. They have yet to allow a running back rush for more than 95 yards in a game against them and have yet to allow one score multiple rushing touchdowns. Henry tallied 139 yards on 25 carries (5.56 yards per carry) in the two games against them last year, though he failed to score in both. Watching Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson combine for 115 yards on 18 carries (6.39 yards per carry) should make Henry owners happy, though. The Titans have said that Henry will be the focal point of their offense and that he’ll be in more of a workhorse role, though the 36-24 snap split with Lewis is the same as Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, even if the touch count was large last week (Henry 20, Lewis 6). With the Titans at home and as the favorites, Henry should be in lineups as a sturdy RB2, though Lewis may offer some potential in PPR formats, too, as the Colts have allowed 13 running backs to amass five-plus receptions in their last 17 games.
WRs
T.Y. Hilton: It was a better matchup than it was supposed to be against the Chargers, who were down one of their starting cornerbacks. As a smart offensive coordinator would do, the Colts attacked backup cornerback Brandon Facyson. Against the Titans, they won’t have that luxury, though the Titans cornerback duo isn’t as talented as the Chargers is when at full health. Hilton will see a mix of both Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler in coverage, who combined to allow just 74 yards on 11 targets to the Browns receivers last week. Brissett should have much more time to throw than Baker Mayfield did, which should allow Hilton to get deep into his routes. After racking up 155 yards and two touchdowns on nine targets in their first meeting, the Titans were able to bottle him up in the second meeting, as Hilton finished with just two catches for 61 yards on six targets. He’s seemingly much more valuable with Brissett under Reich than he was in 2017 with Brissett under Chuck Pagano. Knowing they may struggle to run the ball, Hilton should be targeted somewhat heavily and started as a WR2 this week.
Parris Campbell: After learning that Devin Funchess broke his collarbone, we’re going to see Campbell as part of this offense right away. Even though he was fifth among Colts receivers with 18 snaps, he totaled two touches while Zach Pascal and Chester Rogers didn’t even net a target. The Colts drafted Campbell in the second round and were ecstatic about it, particularly Reich. He’s bigger than T.Y. Hilton and he’s actually faster than him, too. We need to see him in more of a full-time role before trusting him redraft leagues, but he’s a name you should have on your radar in case Brissett can support multiple fantasy options.
Zach Pascal/Deon Cain/Chester Rogers: This trio will be competing for snaps with Devin Funchess out for the foreseeable future with a broken collarbone. Parris Campbell is easily the most explosive one and worthy from a roster spot, but one of these three should have a big opportunity. Pascal played down the stretch last year and did fairly well, while Cain was someone they had high hopes for before he tore his ACL during his first preseason game in 2018. Rogers is who is he, though he’s familiar with the offense, and it’s likely when he ranked third in snaps among wide receivers last week. None should be near fantasy lineups until we have more answers.
Corey Davis: There are many panicking over Davis’ goose egg in Week 1, though if you read this article last week, you know how brutal of a matchup it was. Denzel Ward has drawn comparisons to Darrelle Revis for a reason. This week, the matchup improves significantly, though the Titans receiver didn’t bode too well against them last year, either. In two games, he caught seven balls for 78 yards with no touchdowns. To be fair, he was playing with Blaine Gabbert for most of those games, as Mariota missed one full game, and threw just 13 passes in the other. The Colts had big issues with Keenan Allen last week, though he’s a receiver who moves into the slot more than half the time, while Davis is primarily a perimeter player. He’s not someone you should be relying on as a starter right now, but he’s also not someone who should be let loose on waiver wires. Mike Vrabel said this preseason that Davis is their best receiver and that it’s not all that close. It’s only a matter of time before that shows up in the box score. I’d consider him one of the better WR4s out there.
Adam Humphries: After being hyped as someone who’d be a safety blanket for Mariota, Humphries saw just one target in a game against the Browns pass rush that seemed to fit Humphries’ role well. Instead, Mariota targeted his wide receivers just 10 times in Week 1, with Humphries getting just one of them. With Delanie Walker seemingly just as spry as he once was, Humphries is likely to take a backseat to Walker as the safety blanket in this offense. The Colts did struggle with slot receivers last year, as they allowed six different slot-heavy receivers total at least five receptions, including 11 receptions to Keke Coutee and nine receptions to Jermaine Kearse. Until we see it during the game, it’s hard to trust Humphries as anything more than a WR5, even in PPR formats.
A.J. Brown: There will be some who wonder if Brown is worth picking up and starting after his three-catch, 100-yard game against the Browns last week. The good news is that Brown is the No. 2 wide receiver behind only Corey Davis when it comes to routes run. He was listed as the No. 4 on the Titans unofficial depth chart, but real game action does the talking. The Colts had Rock Ya-Sin opposite Pierre Desir in Week 1, which was a mild surprise, as many expected Quincy Wilson to get the nod. Ya-Sin didn’t fare too well against the Chargers, allowing 3-for-3 passing in his coverage for 51 yards and a touchdown. The Titans have already told us that Davis is their top receiver and that’s true, though Brown is talented in his own right and can make things happen after the catch. He’s worth owning in 12-team leagues right now, though he’s the No. 2 option behind Davis for me, making him a WR5 against the Colts.
TEs
Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle: It was similar to last year with these two in Week 1, as Doyle out-snapped Ebron 43-25. Don’t get it wrong, Ebron is still the most valuable target in the passing game, as he’s targeted much more in the red zone, including the touchdown that Ebron dropped in Week 1. It doesn’t help Doyle’s case that he had a drop as well. The Titans were the No. 5 defense in the league against tight ends in 2018, allowing just 646 yards and two touchdowns all season. Sure, they allowed a touchdown to David Njoku in Week 1, but that was on a quick slant with Kevin Byard tight in coverage. That’s likely a touchdown against any team. It’s worth noting that Ebron did score one of the two touchdowns against them last year, though it came in Week 17 when the season was over for the Titans. The first meeting netted him exactly zero points on 25 snaps. With Devin Funchess out for the year, they’ll need the tight ends to step up in the red zone, though the matchup here isn’t good enough to consider either as anything more than a TE2 option.
Delanie Walker: It’s like he never aged during his year away from the game. Granted, the matchup was pristine, and we talked about it here last week, but still, he needed to execute. The Colts may not be as easy of a matchup as the Browns were, but they’re still one you should feel comfortable attacking with Walker. They allowed a ridiculous 14 tight ends finish as top-16 PPR options (high-end TE2 territory) against them last year, with 10 of them finishing as a top-10 option. It wasn’t touchdowns, either. They allowed 103 receptions and 1,194 yards to the position; both of which were the most in the league. While the Colts allowed just five touchdowns to the position, we know that’s one of the more unpredictable things year-over-year. Follow the 25 percent target share that Walker got in Week 1 into a great matchup. He’s a solid TE1 once again this week and one you should consider in cash games.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
QBs
Tom Brady: After watching the Patriots steamroll the Steelers on Sunday night football, you hesitate to think what they’d do with Antonio Brown on their team, though we’ll find out this Sunday. That’s also before mentioning it’s the Dolphins they’ll be playing. You know, the team that just allowed Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin to complete 23-of-26 passes for 379 yards and six touchdowns? The odd part of projecting this game is that Brian Flores, the new Dolphins head coach, worked for the Patriots since 2004. He’s practiced against this team for the last 14 years, so he should have some idea about their weaknesses, right? Granted, it’s a different team without Rob Gronkowski, but that’s the lone hope the Dolphins have to slow down the Patriots offense. It’s not looking great for them considering Brady has thrown at least three touchdown passes against the Dolphins in five of their last seven meetings, and this defense has far less talent, particularly in the pass-rush department. They sacked the Ravens duo just one time on 28 dropbacks. Meanwhile, the Patriots offensive line allowed Brady to be sacked just once against a talented Steelers pass-rush. The Patriots can essentially pick their poison this week and it could be a game they use to get their run-game jumpstarted. That’s the only reason Brady wouldn’t go off, because they should be able to do what they want against this defense that lacks talent. Did you know there were multiple veterans who asked to be traded once this game was over? If Brady is wrong this week, I don’t want to be right. Play him as a QB1 and expect results in a game they’re projected to score 32.3 points.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: It seems the Dolphins are going to be okay with swapping quarterbacks mid-game, which means it’s going to be nearly impossible for you to rely on either of them as a streaming option. Fitzpatrick is the one who could deliver value, as he’s a veteran who’s been around the block enough times to know what he can get away with. His 185 yards and one touchdown against the Ravens was actually not horrible, knowing the state of his offensive line and receivers. The Patriots defense only sacked Ben Roethlisberger once last week and pressured him just 22.4 percent of his dropbacks, which was the fourth-lowest mark of Week 1. They’ll be able to get to Fitzpatrick behind his makeshift offensive line, but they may not be as bad as the Ravens, who pressured Fitzpatrick on a ridiculous 45.5 percent of his dropbacks. It’s impossible to start a quarterback from the Dolphins with the risk that he’ll get pulled at any minute. Not that the offensive line is a strength, but he just lost his starting right tackle to injured reserve, and his starting center popped up on the injury report this Friday.
RBs
Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: It was a very disappointing 2019 debut for Michel, who tallied just 14 yards on 15 carries last week against the Steelers, though he’ll have his shot at redeeming himself. The Dolphins allowed a ridiculous 190 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries by Ravens running backs. Prior to doing a purge on their defense, the Dolphins had already allowed 15 rushing touchdowns in 2018, which ranked as the fourth-most in the league. Michel was included in that number, as he totaled a massive 45 carries in the two games against each other, racking up 169 yards on the ground with one touchdown. There will be plenty of opportunities for Michel to bounce back in this game, even if they run a three-way timeshare. The Dolphins allowed 12 different running backs hit the 16-point PPR mark against them last year, which was nearly one per game. The Patriots shouldn’t have to dump off many passes to White in this game, making Michel a premier bounce-back candidate. He should be in lineups as an RB2, at worst. White is not someone who’s a must-play here, as there’s suddenly a lot of targets to throw to, and the Patriots shouldn’t have to throw the ball more than 25-30 times. With the Patriots seemingly locked into 30-plus carries in this game (totaled 64 carries in two games against them last year), Burkhead could be an emergency RB4 for fantasy teams, and even someone who you may want to throw in a tournament lineup or two after he outplayed Michel in the opener.
Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage: It was a frustrating game if you owned any Dolphins player in Week 1, but particularly the running backs. Ballage got the start but wound up playing just 20 snaps, carrying the ball five times for -1 yard and catching one pass for 13 yards. It’s more of what we saw in the preseason with him. Drake played 26 snaps, but they weren’t highly impactful, either. He totaled 27 yards on six touches. This offense isn’t going to be one that produces many great performances, but we want to figure out which one will be on the field more in games like this one right? Knowing that 22-of-26 Drake’s snaps came when they were throwing the ball, he’s probably the one, though with the makeshift offensive line up front, it won’t be easy. The Patriots bottled up James Conner last week to just 21 yards on 10 carries, though he did chip in with four catches for 44 yards. Not only are the Dolphins not going to score a whole lot of touchdowns this season, but the Patriots allowed just six rushing touchdowns all of last year, the second-lowest mark in the league. Ballage is nothing more than someone who needs to hit a big play on one of his 6-10 touches to have any relevance, while Drake is someone who’ll likely contribute as an RB3 in PPR formats due to his prowess in the pass-game, though it’s not going to be exciting to own him. Knowing the Patriots allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs last year, he should be the better option, though he’s just a weak RB3/4 option considering how little the Dolphins are controlling the ball.
WRs
Julian Edelman: It’s time to see just how much of an effect Antonio Brown will have on Tom Brady‘s favorite target, though with Brown on the team for just one week, it’s unlikely we see fireworks between him and Brady right away. The Dolphins are not using one cornerback or safety in the slot exclusively, but rather going with a mix of Minkah Fitzpatrick, Chris Lammons, and Jomal Wiltz. I promise these names are not made up. Wiltz allowed 2/72/1 on two targets in his NFL debut, while Fitzpatrick was rocked for 6/117/3. Keep in mind he allowed just one touchdown in his coverage last year on 62 targets. Three of the six touchdowns the Dolphins allowed came in the slot, which is where Edelman is likely to be 75 percent of the time. While Brown is developing chemistry and learning the playbook, Edelman should continue to be played as a strong WR2. He tagged a better Dolphins squad last year for 9/86/1.
Antonio Brown: How do we approach a guy who’s been with the team for just one week? My guess is that he’ll be out there in somewhat of a limited role, as he needs time to learn their playbook. Don’t forget that Josh Gordon‘s first two games with the Patriots netted him just 18 snaps in each game. While there was a questionable hamstring injury, it could’ve contributed to his limited play count. Brown is clearly in great shape and ready to play football, though the Patriots don’t need to force anything this week in a game that should be won with relative ease. Xavien Howard is a rock-solid NFL cornerback and the one starting cornerback who didn’t allow a touchdown in Week 1. It’s unknown if he’ll shadow anyone, though even if he did, it could be Josh Gordon. This is a week to exercise caution with Brown knowing he may be playing minimal snaps, though it’s tempting. He should be ranked as an upside WR4, as most wide receivers in the WR4 range are far from sure things, so why not shoot for the stars? *UPDATE* With the new allegations against Brown, it’s possible he’s held out this week. Stay tuned here for updates.
Josh Gordon: He wasn’t limited at all in Week 1 and played a full-complement of snaps. He was only targeted three times, but he made them count, racking up three receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown, including making the Steelers defenders look silly trying to tackle him on the touchdown. He’ll see a combination of Xavien Howard and Eric Rowe in coverage this week. While Howard would typically shadow a No. 1 receiver, there’s no clear-cut one on the Patriots, so my guess is that they’ll simply play sides. Rowe allowed 82 yards and two touchdowns on just six targets against the Ravens in a game they just looked unprepared. Similar to Edelman, Gordon gets a bump this week due to Antonio Brown‘s limited time with the team, as he’ll likely be eased in. In their meeting last year, Gordon tallied nine targets and turned them into five catches for 96 yards. It’s a different team, sure, but it’s definitely not better. Consider Gordon a high-end WR3 this week.
DeVante Parker: In a brutal matchup last week, Parker somehow managed to stay afloat on the stat sheet, finishing with three catches for 75 yards against a brutal Ravens secondary. Unfortunately, he has another brutal matchup this week against Stephon Gilmore, one of the top cornerbacks in the league. He allowed just a 44.0 percent completion rate in his coverage last year, which is even more impressive when you consider he covers the opponents’ top option most weeks. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Patriots just play sides in this game, as Preston Williams has looked good in his short time in the NFL. The Dolphins should rack up pass attempts when they have the ball, though the Patriots can play keep away, limiting even the amount of garbage time the Dolphins players get. Parker will have usable weeks, though this game is another tough one. He’s just a garbage-time-hopeful WR5.
Allen Hurns/Preston Williams: These two are now fighting for a spot in the starting lineup after the Dolphins traded away Kenny Stills and it appears that Albert Wilson will be out for a period of time with a calf issue. The targets have to go somewhere, right? Unfortunately, the cornerback trio of Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, and J.C. Jackson is one of the better ones in the league. The Patriots allowed the 19th most fantasy points to wide receivers last year, though it’s actually worse than that. They allowed just a 59.3 percent completion rate (third-lowest) and 7.25 yards per target (fifth-lowest), but the volume they saw propped the numbers up a bit. A lot of fantasy owners will be screaming “garbage time,” but the question is whether the Dolphins defense can ever get off the field. The Dolphins totaled just 32 pass attempts in Week 1 in a game that was essentially all garbage time. It’s best to wait and see which of these two emerges as the clear-cut starter, because even though Hurns played more snaps (34-20), Williams had more targets (5-2).
TEs
Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo: Something that was quite crazy to learn after last week’s game was that the Patriots ran 25 snaps without a tight end on the field in Week 1, something they did just eight times last year. Adding Antonio Brown isn’t likely to help shift things towards tight ends, either. While the starter LaCosse was inactive, Izzo saw just two targets. The Dolphins are a team to attack with tight ends, as we saw the Ravens tight ends rack up a combined 14 receptions for 175 yards and a touchdown… on 14 targets. It was something I’ve never seen before. Many looked at the fact that the Dolphins allowed just the 19th-most fantasy points to tight ends and figured it wasn’t a great matchup, but it had everything to do with the targets they saw (or didn’t see), as they allowed 2.17 PPR points per target to tight ends last year, the second highest mark in the league. Still, it’s impossible to trust either of these tight ends knowing their role on the offense.
Mike Gesicki: The good news is that Gesicki saw six targets in his first game under the new regime. The bad news is they netted just two catches for 31 yards. The Patriots are far from a dominant team against tight ends, as they allowed eight touchdowns to them last season. Not just that, but there were eight tight ends who managed to total 44 or more yards against them. The Dolphins are running out of targets to throw to and the Patriots opponents averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game in 2018, the fifth-highest mark. Knowing that Kenyan Drake isn’t being used very much and that Albert Wilson is likely out this week, there’s a scenario where Gesicki sees eight targets in this game as the primary target over the middle of the field. Now, whether he does something with them is a different story, because he’s been wildly inefficient to this point, but he is on the TE2 streaming radar as someone who should be locked into at least five targets.
Buffalo Bills at New York Giants
Total: 43.5
Line: BUF by 1.5
QBs
Josh Allen: While it was always going to be a tough game for Allen with the Jets pass-rush, owners should feel good they walked away with nearly 16 fantasy points with all things considered. The Giants, on the other hand, do not have a ferocious pass-rush. Dak Prescott was pressured on exactly four of his 32 dropbacks in Week 1. Not only couldn’t they generate a pass-rush, but edge rusher Kareem Martin suffered a sprained knee and may be unavailable for this tilt. Allen posted just a 47.4 QB Rating while under pressure last year, but that number rose to 79.8 when he was kept clean. While neither is great, you don’t want him pressured, as he’ll make mistakes. The Giants also allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks last year, which included five running for at least 29 yards, though none topped 45 yards. We may not see a whole lot of pass attempts in this game out of Allen, though that may be a good thing, as three of his top four games in 2018 were games he threw the ball 26 times or less. He’s absolutely on the streaming radar this week as a borderline QB1/2 – just don’t watch if you don’t have to.
Eli Manning: He did much better than anyone will want to give him credit for in Week 1, though it’s not getting any easier in Week 2. Sterling Shepard is in the concussion protocol and Manning will play a Bills defense that allowed just 21 passing scores in all of 2018, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. They were consistent, too, allowing just three quarterbacks to finish inside the top-15. The craziest stat of them all, however, is that they held 10-of-16 quarterbacks to 177 yards or less. That trend continued in Week 1 when they held Sam Darnold to just 175 yards on 41 pass attempts. Even if Shepard were playing (he’s not), it wouldn’t be a week to have Manning near any lineup, including 2QB formats.
RBs
Frank Gore and Devin Singletary: The snap count breakdown last week was probably a lot different than most think. Singletary 45, Gore 19, T.J. Yeldon 2. So, while Gore wound up with 11 touches to Singletary’s nine touches, it appears Singletary is the lead back here. With that being said, the gamescript in this one projects as a heavy Gore game. The Giants stopped the run against the Cowboys pretty well last week, though it came at a hefty price, as they allowed 12.7 yards per attempt through the air. The Giants should honestly do the same thing again this week and force Josh Allen to beat them, though that’s rational thinking, which isn’t allowed in the NFL at times. Once the Giants traded away Damon Harrison last year, they fell-off as a run defense, allowing 984 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 218 carries (4.51 yards per carry) in the 10 games without him. Opponents averaged 27.8 rushing attempts against the Giants last year, the seventh-highest mark in the league, so there should be enough for Gore to reach his boring high-end RB4 numbers, while Singletary should be played as the upside RB3. Despite catching just six passes all season in his final college season, Singletary saw six targets in Week 1, catching five of them for 28 yards, though he also dropped one.
Saquon Barkley: When fantasy owners drafted Barkley, they didn’t ever see a scenario where he’d total just 15 touches in a game, though that’s what happened in Week 1 against the Cowboys. On his first carry of the game, he ripped a long 59-yard run, which just brought back memories from his rookie season. The issue was that he didn’t score, something that’ll be a problem with the state of the offense. Offensive guard Kevin Zeitler hurt his shoulder in this game, though he’s expected to be available this week. It’s a situation we’ll monitor. The Bills held Le’Veon Bell to just 60 yards on 17 carries last week, though he also added six receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown. Oddly enough, no running back totaled 20 carries against the Bills last year, though they did allow six RB1 performances to them. Something they all had in common? They all scored touchdowns. The 4.14 yards per carry the Bills allowed ranked as the 11th lowest, but they allowed a touchdown every 21.2 carries, the second most-often in the league, behind only the Bucs. It was an issue the Bills had in 2017 as well, as they allowed a touchdown every 20.3 carries, which was the most often. Barkley is going to get his yards more often than not, as he’s almost always breaking a play, but it’s good to know the Bills struggle most where he struggles most. Play him as a high-end RB1 and he’s in-play for tournaments as well.
WRs
John Brown: To see Brown get 10 targets in his first game with Josh Allen, owners should be jumping for joy. He’s taken over the role that was occupied by Robert Foster late last year that produced WR2 numbers over the final six weeks of the season. If there’s one thing Allen has, it’s a big arm that can launch the ball down the field, even if he did underthrow Brown on his long touchdown. Brown is a great talent, so it’s good to see Allen continually looking his way. The Giants shadowed Amari Cooper last week, though that didn’t turn out so well, so it’s unlikely they have Janoris Jenkins shadow Brown this week. The Cowboys continually picked on DeAndre Baker and Antonio Hamilton last week, as the duo combined to allow 11-for-11 passing for 209 yards and a touchdown. The question is whether there’s enough attempts to go around this week. Allen should have much more time to take shots down the field to Brown, and all it takes is one for him to pay off as a WR3. He definitely moved up the rankings with his performance last week, but you have to understand the risk when you play him.
Zay Jones: If there’s any receiver who’ll be followed by Janoris Jenkins, it’s John Brown, meaning Jones will see DeAndre Baker most of the time. He’s a rookie who really struggled in his first NFL game, allowing 4-of-4 passing for 54 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. That’s obviously a good sign for Jones, though the issue is that he was on the field for just 29-of-66 snaps in Week 1. Because of that, you can’t trust him in fantasy leagues. This game also projects to be a lower attempt game for Josh Allen.
Cole Beasley: He played as the No. 2 receiver for the Bills, ahead of Zay Jones. He also saw nine targets, which highlights just how much he means to the Bills offense. He’s treated as a safety blanket for Allen, which will have a role in fantasy football if the Bills fall behind and throw a lot of pass attempts, like they did in Week 1. Still, even in a great matchup with the Jets, he posted five catches for 40 yards and finished as the WR58 in Week 1. This isn’t a week where Allen should throw a whole lot, so feel free to pass on Beasley.
Sterling Shepard (OUT): He’s currently in the concussion protocol, so be sure to check back on Saturday morning for updates (I do this with all players on Saturday). We watched Jamison Crowder rack up 14 receptions for 99 yards against the Bills last week, which is huge because he’s their full-time slot receiver. We had our questions about Shepard this year and whether he would play that role, but with Golden Tate suspended for the first four games, Shepard played 70 percent of his snaps in the slot. Taron Johnson is their primary slot cornerback, though he strained his hamstring in Week 1, so the Bills were forced to go with backup Siran Neal. To be fair, the Bills play a ton of zone coverage, so the Giants can pick their matchups most of the time. If Shepard is cleared, he should be the featured player for the Giants in this matchup, making him a mediocre WR3 option. Stay tuned for updates on his status. *Update* Shepard has been ruled out for Week 2.
Bennie Fowler/Cody Latimer: These two are going to be the starting perimeter wide receivers, though it’s not something to be excited about against the Bills perimeter cornerbacks. The combination of Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace combined to allow just 40-of-71 passing for 451 yards and three touchdowns last year. You attack the middle of the field with the Bills, so neither of these wide receivers is worth a sleeper-type start in Week 2.
TEs
Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney: There was a three-way timeshare among Bills tight ends last week, as Knox led the way with 38 snaps, Lee Smith played 26, and Sweeney played 21. None of them were targeted more than two times in a game Allen threw the ball 37 times. While the Cowboys tight ends combined for 6/54/2 on six targets against the Giants last week, you cannot start any Bills tight end with any confidence. If you wanted to pick one, it’d be Knox due to the fact that he ran 27 pass routes, while Sweeney ran just 12.
Evan Engram: He was one of the easier picks at tight end last week, though it gets a bit more difficult this week. The Bills were brutal to tight ends last year, allowing just a 56.3 percent completion rate, 5.89 yards per target, and 1.41 PPR points per target. No tight end was able to eclipse 55 yards against them, which included Eric Ebron, Trey Burton, and Rob Gronkowski twice. Kyle Rudolph was the only one who finished as a top-10 tight end against them, which took a touchdown for him to do. If Sterling Shepard has to miss this game with a concussion (he’s since been ruled out), it’s hard to see a situation where Engram doesn’t see eight-plus targets. You have to play him as a TE1, but it’s not a week you must attack him in DFS.
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
QBs
Russell Wilson: Remember when I talked about the concern that Wilson would throw the ball just 25 times last week? Well, he threw the ball just 20 times, and it wasn’t even due to gamescript. The Bengals brought some exotic packages that the Seahawks had no way to prepare for. Now they head out to Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers defense that lacked any sort of competence in Week 1. The communication was brutal in their secondary and Terrell Edmunds played what may have been the worst game I’ve ever seen a safety play, even if he wasn’t charged with allowing much in coverage. They only sacked Tom Brady once, though he was pressured quite a bit. Similar to Brady, Wilson will make you pay if you don’t get to him on a blitz. Wilson had the fifth highest QB Rating in the league under pressure last year. The Steelers are likely without top cornerback Joe Haden in this game, as he suffered a sprained AC joint in their Week 1 matchup. Even with him, the Steelers allowed 9-of-16 quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns against them in 2018. T.J. Watt, their best pass-rusher also had to leave the game in Week 1 with a hip injury, which would be a massive blow. Wilson hasn’t played against the Steelers since way back in 2015 when he threw five touchdowns on just 30 pass attempts. He’s going to throw the ball a lot more in this game and should be able to live up to low-end QB1 numbers. He also has sneaky tournament appeal, should the Steelers offense come to life and force them to abandon the run.
Ben Roethlisberger: There was a lot of concern on my end without Antonio Brown, but I don’t think I ever envisioned a situation where the Steelers would lose 33-3 in the opener. It was on the road, where Roethlisberger has struggled throughout his career, though he returns home this week. We just watched the A.J. Green-less Bengals throw for 418 yards and two touchdowns in Seattle. That just sounds weird, right? You’d have to go all the way back to Week 13 of last year to find the last Seahawks interception. They’ve intercepted just three passes over their last 12 games. Seven of the last nine quarterbacks who’ve played them have finished as top-12 options, including Nick Mullens (twice), Cam Newton, and Andy Dalton. Provided JuJu Smith-Schuster is healthy and able to play, Roethlisberger should be considered a solid low-end QB1 streaming option with upside for much more.
RBs
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: It was supposed to be a game the Seahawks ran the ball 30-plus times, easy. Instead, we watched the Bengals control the time of possession. The Seahawks had the ball for just 24 minutes and ran 51 plays. That’s likely to change against the Steelers, whose opponents averaged nearly 62 plays per game last year. While the Patriots passing game was on fire, the Steelers did hold the combination of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead to just 84 yards on 27 carries (3.11 yards per carry). The good news for Carson, however, is that he’s one of the primary pass-catching options for Russell Wilson, as he saw six of the 20 targets available (30 percent target share). Burkhead and White combined for 10 catches and 97 yards last week. Penny will be on the field in a bigger role when the Seahawks are able to run the ball consistently, but in a game like this on the road, Carson is the only fantasy viable option. If there’s another running back who resembles Carson’s ruthless style, it’s Leonard Fournette, who tagged the Steelers for 141 total yards and a touchdown last year. Carson needs to remain in fantasy lineups as a gamescript-proof RB1/2 option, even in a tough matchup like this one.
James Conner and Jaylen Samuels: It wasn’t the way Conner owners were hoping the season would start, especially against a Patriots team that allowed a robust 4.78 yards per carry last year. The good news is that he was still the workhorse, totaling 14 of the 17 running back touches available. Don’t panic just yet. The Seahawks run defense looked good against the Bengals last week, though Joe Mixon was hurt, and they were missing multiple starters on the offensive line. The area the Steelers need to attack this defense is through the air, though. The Seahawks allowed 7.25 yards per target to running backs last year, which was the third highest number in the league. There were 11 teams in the NFL who allowed fewer yards per attempt to quarterbacks, highlighting just how high that number is. Because of that, the Seahawks allowed 10 top-15 performances to running backs last year with all but one of those running backs totaling at least 7.0 PPR points through the air alone. Get Conner back in lineups as a backend RB1/high-end RB2 who should deliver a high floor. Samuels did play 22 snaps, so he’s not a forgotten man in this offense, but it’s clear they want Conner in that workhorse role and Samuels in a change-of-pace role. Because of that, he’s nothing more than an emergency RB4/5 option in a matchup that would actually favor his skillset in the passing game.
WRs
Tyler Lockett: We talked about Lockett quite a bit on our podcast throughout the offseason, saying he’d been in the league for four years and had yet to see more than 71 targets. The departure of Doug Baldwin seemed to open the door to much more, but after seeing just two targets in Week 1, it’s worrisome. There were only 20 pass attempts, which makes it tough regardless, but D.K. Metcalf looked like a player who can do some damage. We just got done watching Phillip Dorsett cripple the Steelers secondary for 95 yards and two touchdowns on just four targets, so all hope isn’t lost for Lockett here, even if he doesn’t see a high target share. He played 65 percent of his snaps in the slot, which is where two of the three touchdowns came from against the Patriots. Mike Hilton appeared to have a miscommunication with the safeties on one of them, but the Steelers continually had problems with slot receivers last year, too. Lockett may not be as safe as you’d hoped, but he should still be in lineups as a low-end WR2 this week.
D.K. Metcalf: Just two weeks removed from his knee scope, Metcalf saw a team-high six targets against the Bengals, turning them into four receptions for 89 yards. He looked good, battling with the solid duo of William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick, using his body to shield the defenders very well. It seems Wilson trusts him already, which is a great thing for him when in one-on-one battles. The Steelers may be without their top cornerback Joe Haden this week, which would leave them starting Steven Nelson and Artie Burns. This would be a big upgrade for Metcalf, as Haden is easily the most talented cornerback on the roster. Nelson is 5-foot-11 and under 195 pounds, while Burns was benched last year after allowing 290 yards and four touchdowns on 26 targets. We don’t want to overreact to one solid week from Metcalf but knowing there should be more pass attempts does help rise his projection a bit. Consider him a risk/reward WR4 who would benefit most if Haden had to miss the game. He saw a massive 59.1 percent of the Seahawks air yards in Week 1, the second highest mark in the NFL. *Update* Haden got in a full practice on Friday after being out both Wednesday and Thursday, so he appears to be set to play, which lowers the upside for Metcalf.
Jaron Brown: He was on the field in a full-time role during the Week 1 win over the Bengals, so he can pop-up on the radar out of nowhere. Both he and Metcalf played 40 snaps, though it was Metcalf who saw six targets while Brown didn’t get a single one. If Joe Haden is able to play in this game, it’s likely a good thing for Brown, as Haden would probably cover Metcalf. That would leave Brown in Steven Nelson‘s coverage, and though he was solid for the Chiefs last year, he’s not on Haden’s level, meaning Brown would have the better matchup. He’s nothing more than a hail mary in DFS but he does become more appealing if Haden were playing (seems like Haden will play).
JuJu Smith-Schuster: It’s been reported that he had an x-ray on the toe injury he suffered late in the game against the Patriots, though it came back negative and he’s considered to be just fine. Some are worried after his game against the Patriots, but you shouldn’t be one of them. He tallied six catches for 78 yards on eight targets against Stephon Gilmore in a game where Roethlisberger clearly didn’t have it. He now plays against a secondary that just allowed the combination of Tyler Boyd and John Ross to go for 15/218/2 against them, while at home. The Seahawks were so frustrated by the performances of their cornerbacks that they went out and signed Jamar Taylor, the guy they cut a few weeks ago. Taylor played for the Cardinals last year, allowing 22-of-26 passing for 376 yards and a touchdown. Provided Smith-Schuster is healthy, he should crush in this matchup as an elite WR1.
Donte Moncrief: He was targeted a team-high 10 times in Week 1, though they netted just three catches for seven yards, as he and Roethlisberger clearly weren’t on the same page. Moncrief also dropped multiple passes. That’s not going to help earn Roethlisberger’s trust, though it’s not as if James Washington did much, either. He will see a mix of Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers in coverage, but seemingly more of Flowers, which would be a good thing. Flowers was torched in Week 1 for 10 receptions, 170 yards, and a touchdown against the Bengals while Griffin allowed just seven yards on his side of the field. I’m not excited about Moncrief, but knowing he out-snapped Washington 60-35, you have to believe he has more potential, especially when he’s the only one who got 10 targets. He should be considered a decent WR4 option until we see the snap counts change.
James Washington: He was on the field for 35 snaps in Week 1, which was actually behind Ryan Switzer‘s 46 snaps. Whatever the Steelers did, it obviously didn’t work. At some point, they have to trust Washington to grow into his role, though you cannot play him in redraft until they do. If the Steelers want to take a page out of the Bengals book last week, Washington is the one who can get behind the Seahawks defense as one of the better deep-ball players on the team. Because of that, he’s a hail-mary tournament option, but nothing more until we see a consistent role.
TEs
Nick Vannett: After playing 26 snaps, Will Dissly suffered a knee injury and may miss some time. That means we’re back to Vannett, who disappointed in Dissly’s absence last year. He caught both of his targets in Week 1 for 16 yards. The Steelers were a matchup to target on the schedule for tight ends last year, as there were 10 tight ends who hit the double-digit PPR mark, including four tight ends who saw four or less targets. They didn’t allow anything to the Patriots last week, but that could have been due to them missing their top two tight ends, and running 20-plus plays with no tight end on the field. There’s no way we can lock Vannett in for anywhere close to five targets, making him a risky TE2 where you’re looking for a touchdown. Keep in mind that’s the best-case scenario, as Dissly may return. *Update* Dissly practiced throughout the week and will play in this game, making both of them rough options.
Vance McDonald: It was a frustrating start to the season for those who projected a breakout for McDonald, as he didn’t catch a ball until the fourth quarter. There was a positive to take away from the game, however. He played 48-of-67 snaps, a 71.6 percent snap rate, which would have been his second highest mark all of last year. Getting a tight end on the field is half the battle, so that portion looks very good. Unfortunately, the Seahawks haven’t been a team to target with tight ends. Bradley McDougald is one of the better cover safeties in the league and was a big reason they allowed just 6.99 yards per target to the position last year. While Kittle did have a TE7 finish against them last year, he also had a TE13 finish, while Travis Kelce finished as the TE14 in his matchup. There were just five tight ends who posted a TE1 performance against the Seahawks last year, with four of them scoring touchdowns, and the other one was Kittle who posted 6/70/0 on nine targets. McDonald doesn’t have a great matchup but remains in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 conversation due to the amount of snaps he’s playing.
