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The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 43.5
Line: JAX by 3.0

QBs
Gardner Minshew:
It was the first subpar performance out of Minshew last week, though if you were here last week, you’d have known it wasn’t a great matchup for the Jaguars offense. The Bengals, however, are a completely different scenario. It was also just the first time this year Minshew has finished with less than 16.1 fantasy points, so we don’t want to be too hard on him for one bad game. The Bengals are also the only team in the NFL who’s allowed six different quarterbacks 16.3 or more fantasy points, so we find ourselves with a situation where the fantasy floor should be in the low-end high-end QB2 range, which is rare to find. It’s not just one type of quarterback who’s done it against the Bengals, either, as they’ve played Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Josh Allen, Mason Rudolph, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson. The only quarterback who averaged sub-7.2 yards per attempt was Allen. They’re allowing 8.34 yards per attempt on the season. To explain just how bad that is, Patrick Mahomes averaged 8.79 yards per attempt last year. It also helps that the Bengals opponents have averaged 65.7 plays per game, which is quite a bit higher than the 61.0 plays per game the Jaguars average. Minshew should be considered a low-end QB1 who possesses a high floor in this matchup.

Andy Dalton: Has Christmas come early for Dalton? It’s been rumored that his superstar receiver may return to the field this week, which would dramatically change the way we look at this offense. Another thing that drastically changes an outlook is the Jaguars pass defense without Jalen Ramsey, who was inactive for a third straight game last week. We’ve actually seen three different quarterbacks throw for 300-plus yards against the Jaguars this year, a number that was hit just twice all of last season. Keep in mind that’s while quarterbacks have averaged just 34.5 pass attempts against them, which is roughly the league average. It’s also a number that Dalton’s hit in every game this year (36 is his minimum). The biggest issue for Dalton is the Jaguars 8.4 percent sack-rate, as Dalton was without his starting right and left tackle last week. Because of the lack of protection, it’ll be tough for Dalton to get the ball down the field to his receivers. It’s also why we’ve seen his average yards per attempt spiking over the last four weeks. If Green returns and Ramsey doesn’t play, you can consider Dalton a high-end QB2 streamer. However, if either one of those things doesn’t happen, Dalton is nothing more than a mid-to-low-end QB2. *Update* He’ll be down three starting offensive linemen this week. 

RBs
Leonard Fournette:
There was a quote from Fournette this offseason where he said he wanted to lead the league in rushing yards. He’s currently third behind only Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb. If he wants to earn that title, he needs to make the most of his opportunity in this game against the Bengals defense that’s allowed a league-high 10 running backs total 12.5 or more PPR points, including four of them to top 22.3 PPR points. Why is that number significant? It’s the number of points it took, on average, to finish as a top-24 running back last year. As a whole, the Bengals have allowed 35.5 PPR points per game to running backs. You’re all aware that Fournette has accounted for 88.2 percent of the Jaguars fantasy points to running backs this year, right? It’s not just touchdowns the Bengals are allowing, either. They rank 29th in yards per carry, 28th in yards per target, and yes, they’ve allowed 10 touchdowns to running backs, the most in the NFL. Many considered Mark Ingram chalk last week in this matchup, but he doesn’t sniff Fournette’s opportunity on both the ground and through the air. This is a smash spot where opportunity and matchup collide, which leads to an elite RB1 performance, and cash game viability.

Joe Mixon: Most wanted to dismiss the offensive line problems when drafting Mixon in the second-round this offseason, but knowing what we know now, he’d probably fall outside the top four rounds. The upsetting part is that Mixon’s seen eight-plus defenders in the box just 4.1 percent of the time, which is the lowest in the NFL. It seems Zac Taylor has done a good job setting up the run-game for success, but the injuries along the offensive line have been catastrophic. The Bengals were without 4-of-5 would-be starters last week (if you go back to their projected line with no injuries/retirements after the NFL Draft) and then lost one of their backups during the game. Mixon’s touch count has been 8-14-17-19-20-10, so while last week was disappointing, his touch totals were trending in the right direction. The problem, however, is his lack of involvement in the passing game, as he’s seen more than three targets just twice, and that’s while playing on a team that’s averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game. The Jaguars have allowed a league-high 5.39 yards per carry, so maybe this game plays into Mixon’s role a bit more. We’ve watched four different running backs total at least 80 yards on the ground against them, but will the Jaguars pull away the way most teams have done against the Bengals, leaving Mixon with a lesser role? Oddsmakers don’t think so, which bodes well for Mixon’s potential touches, though the team is projected for just over 20 points. Mixon can go back into lineups as a middling RB2, though you shouldn’t have sky-high expectations unless they increase his usage in the passing game. *Update* He’ll be down three starting offensive linemen this week, which most certainly won’t help his efficiency. 

WRs
D.J. Chark:
After a tough matchup with Marshon Lattimore, who did shadow him, Chark will look to get back on track against the Bengals. He still saw seven targets, which only increases the appeal in starting him every week. He’s now seen 39.6 percent of the Jaguars air yards, which ranks eighth-best in the NFL. The Bengals don’t shadow anyone, so they’ll get to pick their spots for Chark in this game. They’ll also likely be without both starting cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick, who had to leave the stadium on crutches last week with a knee injury, and William Jackson, who has a shoulder injury. That’ll lead to Tony McRae entering the starting lineup alongside B.W. Webb. This secondary hasn’t been tested very much, as they’ve faced just 14.7 wide receiver targets per game, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. When tested, they haven’t been very good, allowing a 68.2 percent completion-rate long with 8.67 yards per target, and that’s with their starters on the field. Many will see the fact that the Bengals have allowed the third-fewest points to wide receivers and think it’s a tough matchup, but that’s not the case, as their 1.82 PPR points per target to wide receivers ranks as the 10th highest mark. Knowing they’re missing both starting cornerbacks combined with the fact that Chark has seen at least seven targets in each of the last three games, he should be started as a solid WR2 here. The biggest concern with his outlook would be Fournette just absolutely destroying the Bengals so bad that they threw the ball less than 25 times, which does limit his cash-game appeal. *Update* Both Williams and Kirkpatrick have been ruled out, upgrading Chark’s matchup. 

Dede Westbrook: It was a disappointing game for Westbrook last week, though if we were to go back in time and know he’d see eight targets against the Saints, I would have had the same process in starting him as a WR3. He did have a better game than Chark, though both disappointed due to Minshew’s first bad game. The Bengals did have B.W. Webb covering the slot, but with Dre Kirkpatrick likely sidelined, it means Webb moves outside and Tony McRae takes over in the slot. He’s a former undrafted free agent who has been in the league since 2017 but has seen just 20 target in coverage. On those targets, he’s allowed 16 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns. This is another plus matchup for Westbrook, though I’m not as confident because Chark also has a good matchup in this game. Knowing wide receivers have averaged just 14.7 targets against the Bengals is worrisome, though the Jaguars don’t really have a tight end they target, so we should expect more out of them. Westbrook should be considered a decent WR4 option this week who’s yet to see less than five targets. *Update* Westbrook is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury.

A.J. Green: If he appears on track to play, I’ll come back and write some notes on him, but he didn’t practice on Wednesday. *Update* He’s officially been ruled out. 

Tyler Boyd: We watched Marlon Humphrey shadow Boyd last week, which is something that rarely happens with slot-heavy receivers, but it clearly worked as Boyd totaled just three catches for 10 yards on seven targets for his worst game of the year. The Jaguars aren’t going to have anyone shadow him in the slot, so that’s a plus. It would also help if Green came back to help remove unwanted attention with Boyd. It’ll be D.J. Hayden covering him most of the game, a cornerback who’s held his own this year, as he’s allowed just 5.35 yards per target in his slot coverage. Of the 63 cornerbacks who’ve played at least 25 percent of their snaps in the slot, Hayden’s 0.63 yards per covered snap ranks as the 16th best. Still, the Jaguars are one of nine teams who’ve allowed at least 1,000 yards to wide receivers, so those yards have to go somewhere, right? It’s not a pristine matchup, but Boyd’s volume keeps him in lineups as a middling-to-low-end WR2.

Auden Tate: After dropping three balls in the previous two games, Tate made a few highlight reel grabs in Week 6, re-instilling confidence in him as a primary target for Dalton. The issue is that he’ll match-up with A.J. Bouye. I will say that Tate would get a massive bump in the rankings if Green plays, as it would mean Bouye covering Green. If Green doesn’t play, you have to at least consider Tate, who’s now seen at least six targets in each of the last four games, including a career-high 12 targets last week. The Jaguars have only allowed a 60 percent completion-rate to receivers, but those catches have gone for an average of 14.2 yards per reception. Tate’s average depth of target is just 9.5 yards, so it’s tough to say he’ll be the one who benefits from that. He can be considered a middling WR4 with not much upside this week, though there’s a variable with Green.

TEs
Josh Oliver:
He might make his NFL debut this week, as he’s been working his way back from a hamstring injury and hasn’t been on the field since August 1st. With James O’Shaughnessy out for the year and Geoff Swaim knocked unconscious last week, the Jaguars need a tight end to step up. Oliver was running some routes during practice last week, so he was getting close. Still, this is a tight end situation you may want to avoid, as they could use Seth DeValve and Ben Koyack in order to ease Oliver back into the lineup. The Bengals have been horrendous against tight ends, allowing a massive 10.47 yards per target and 1.95 PPR points per target, but what good does that do us when we can’t project a tight end for three targets? The combination of Jaguars tight ends averaged 6.5 targets over the first six games, so it’s not as if they target their tight ends relentlessly.

Tyler Eifert: After failing to do anything against the Cardinals, it’s going to be impossible to tell anyone to play Eifert confidently. Knowing he’s sharing pass routes with C.J. Uzomah (split was 21-13 last week) helps avoid the situation all together. After seeing five targets in three of the first four games, Eifert has seen just six targets over the last two weeks combined. He hasn’t topped 27 yards all season and it appears his scoring days are over, as he has just two touchdowns in his last 12 games. The Jaguars have allowed just a 57.9 percent completion-rate to tight ends, which ranks as the second-best mark in the league. They have allowed a higher yards per reception (13.1) but Eifert is not a downfield threat at this point in his career. When playing him, you’re looking for touchdowns and that’s about it. There are better streaming options than Eifert.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Total: 49.5
Line: NYG by 3.0

QBs
Kyler Murray:
Murray looked better than he has all year last week, though it’s important to note the Falcons will do that to any quarterback. Just look at Marcus Mariota a few weeks ago. Still, it’s good to see Murray take advantage of a great matchup and finish as the QB5 on the week. The Giants have played six games this year. In those six games, they’ve allowed five quarterbacks to average at least 8.2 yards per attempt, and they’ve also allowed four different quarterbacks to throw for at least 306 yards against them. For those who missed the game they played last Thursday night, Tom Brady rushed for two touchdowns against them. They also allowed Josh Allen to rush for a touchdown back in Week 2, which presents a bit more upside for the mobile Murray. The 9.34 yards per attempt allowed by the Giants defense is great for Murray, as it’s even better than the 8.63 yards per attempt allowed by the Falcons. It’s also good to see the Giants opponents averaging over 65 plays per game, as it’s what we target with the Cardinals – the volume. Murray should be considered a top-six option at the position again this week with No. 1 upside.

Daniel Jones: Don’t take too much away from the Week 6 performance. I mean, he’s a rookie quarterback who went into New England without his three-best skill-position players, and played in 25-plus MPH winds, yet managed to be the first quarterback to throw a touchdown against them this year. The good news is that he gets the Cardinals this week. The bad news is that they get their superstar Patrick Peterson back from his six-game suspension. That’ll be a welcomed addition for them, as their secondary has been among the worst in the league, allowing a league-high 16 passing touchdown while being the only team in the league without at least one interception. Could one player make that much of a difference? Jalen Ramsey does. Peterson will be playing in a new defensive scheme, though, which could take some time to adjust to. Another issue for Jones is that he may still be without two of his top playmakers in Shepard and Engram, though nothing is set in stone right now. That will dictate a lot of what his ceiling can be this week. One of the benefits of playing the Cardinals is the sheer amount of volume. Their opponents have averaged 65.8 plays per game this year while they’ve averaged 67.5 themselves, which amounts to 133.3 plays per game, which ranks as the fourth-most in the league. We watched Lamar Jackson rush for 120 yards against them, too. While Jones isn’t Jackson, he does add fantasy points with his mobility. If he’s forced to keep pace with Murray, Jones could be a solid high-end QB2 streamer this week, though it’d take Shepard and/or Engram returning to feel comfortable doing so.

RBs
David Johnson and Chase Edmonds:
Knowing that Johnson is dealing with a back injury, it seems the Cardinals are going to involve Edmonds more and that makes sense knowing the amount of plays they run. It didn’t even affect Johnson’s fantasy finish, as he was the RB3 on the week. Most would assume the Giants have just been smashed by every running back they’ve played, but that hasn’t been the case. In fact, outside of Dalvin Cook, no running back has finished with more than 16.3 PPR points. The craziest part is that running backs have averaged 31.2 touches per game against the Giants, which is tied for the third-most in football. Eight running backs have totaled at least 11 carries against them, so there’s been a lot of opportunity to go around. We also watched James White rack up nine receptions for 46 yards, Dalvin Cook record six receptions for 86 yards, and Chris Thompson tally four receptions for 56 yards. There have been eight running backs who’ve finished as top-24 options against them. The 8.95 yards per target to running backs ranks as the highest mark in football. Johnson is one of the best receiving backs in the game and has seen at least five targets in every game except for the one he left with a wrist injury. Johnson should produce like the top-12 running back you drafted him as. *Update* Johnson is listed as questionable for this game. It’s not good to hear Kingsbury say that if the game were played Friday, Johnson wouldn’t have played, so he’s a true game-time decision. If he were held out, Edmonds would be a locked-and-loaded high-end RB2. 

Saquon Barkley: It seems likely that he’ll be back for this game against the Cardinals, though make sure to check back here on Saturday, as I’ll update all players with injury question marks. The Cardinals have actually been a pretty solid team against running backs, allowing the seventh-fewest points to them on a per-game basis. It’s been a funnel defense that’s gone to the secondary, though now that Patrick Peterson is back, it could allow opposing run-games flourish a bit. How would that work? Well, part of the reason the Cardinals rank as the seventh-best team against running backs is due to the fact that they’ve allowed just four touchdowns to them, while allowing 12 touchdowns to wide receivers and tight ends. If some of those options become more tied up, we should see running backs get more opportunities on the goal-line. The 2.23 points per target the Cardinals have allowed to running backs ranks second to only the Dolphins, so if Barkley’s heavily involved, he should be gold in that area. They’ve allowed 24-of-26 targets to running backs be completed, though not many teams have needed to check down. The Giants are lacking weapons, so we should see Barkley heavily utilized. Provided he’s back in the lineup, Barkley should be played as a stud RB1. *Update* Barkley is good to go after being a full participant in practice all week. 

WRs
Larry Fitzgerald:
The Giants have already allowed five different wide receivers top 100 yards against them this season. The only downside to this for Fitzgerald is that just one of them was a slot-heavy receiver, though it was fellow veteran Julian Edelman last week. Grant Haley is the primary slot cornerback for the Giants, and let’s just say that the reason slot wide receivers haven’t gone off against the Giants isn’t due to his phenomenal coverage. He’s allowed 22-of-27 passing for 285 yards and a touchdown when covering the slot, bad enough for a 123.0 QB Rating when targeted. The Cardinals run multiple slot receivers which means Haley could see Kirk, but that would just mean Haley’s backup would cover Fitzgerald. Knowing Fitzgerald has caught at least five passes in every game, he’s someone you should have in your lineups as a high-floor WR2 this week.

Christian Kirk: It seemed as if Kirk was close to returning to the lineup last week, so it appears he’ll be back for this game. Kingsbury said, “Kirk is closer than he was last week,” when asked about his availability on Wednesday. Kirk’s 22 percent target share is still among the higher marks in football, so don’t forget that he was actually targeted the same amount as Fitzgerald over the first four games. The Giants have been hammered by wide receivers this year, allowing nine different wide receivers to post at least 12.0 PPR points against them. That’s 1.5 per game, which bodes well for the Fitzgerald/Kirk combo, as they’re the point-getters of the top-heavy Cardinals offense. Provided he practices in full, you should be starting Kirk as a WR3 in this game. *Update* Kirk is listed as questionable after getting in limited practices all week, making him a tad more risky. 

Damiere Byrd/KeeSean Johnson: We don’t know if it’s due to him being eased back into the offense, but Byrd played just 15 snaps in Week 6 while Johnson played a team-high 56 snaps. Because of the uncertainty, it’s going to be difficult to play either of them with much confidence, though Byrd was the clear-cut starter before he injured his hamstring. The Giants are obviously a team you want to target with wide receivers, but with Kirk coming back to join Fitzgerald, the targets are going to be very top-heavy. If the Giants can put points on the board, we might see one of Byrd or Johnson become fantasy relevant, and my bet would be on Byrd, as he’s proved he’s a big part of this offense when healthy while Johnson hasn’t done much with his opportunity.

Golden Tate: With Sterling Shepard seemingly out of the picture for a bit, Tate should continue to eat up targets, as he did versus the Patriots last week. His nine targets ranked as the second-most by a Giants receiver this year, while his 102 yards were the most by a Giants receiver. The Cardinals playmaker returning on defense (Patrick Peterson) doesn’t cover slot receivers. That means Tate will see a lot of Tramaine Brock, a journeyman in the league who’s struggled while defending the slot. He’s seen 12 targets and allowed six catches for 115 yards and a touchdown on them. He hasn’t been targeted a lot, which has kept some numbers down in the matchups against him, but that won’t be the case with Tate, as he’s the No. 1 option in the passing game and should be locked into eight-plus targets. Tate should be in lineups as a high-floor WR3 for this matchup.

Darius Slayton: His eight targets in Week 6 were a season-high, though his three-catch, 32-yard performance won’t encourage fantasy owners to trust him. You shouldn’t be so quick to write him off, though. He’s now seen a 30 percent share of his team’s air yards, which ranks right up there inside the top-30 wide receivers. The matchup with the Cardinals might seem like a good thing, but knowing they’ll now have Patrick Peterson and Byron Murphy starting at cornerback, it’s a much less appealing matchup. While Murphy has not been a cornerback to shy away from, he’s a rookie who has been taught a few lessons by veteran wide receivers. Slayton doesn’t offer anything more than Murphy being a fellow rookie. If Shepard and Engram are out of the lineup, Slayton becomes a volume WR5-type play, though he should not be considered a must-play by any means.

TEs
Charles Clay:
It wouldn’t matter if Clay (or any other Cardinals tight end) were playing against his own defense; you’re not playing him. Cardinals tight ends have combined for 16 targets through six games. Zach Ertz saw that many targets in one week. Yes, Maxx Williams scored a touchdown last week. It was on a trick play where the Falcons essentially didn’t feel the need to cover the Cardinals backup tight end… well, because he’s the Cardinals backup tight end. Stay far away from this group. The Giants have also allowed the fifth fewest points to tight ends.

Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison: He was diagnosed with a sprained MCL, which is typically a multi-week injury. That means he’s no sure thing to play in this game, and it could mean we see another game of Rhett Ellison. He played 50 snaps against the Patriots and saw six targets while playing in relief of Engram, though his three catches for 30 yards didn’t do any wonders. Whoever gets the start becomes a great play, as we’ve watched the Cardinals get absolutely destroyed by tight ends this year. There are teams who are bad against the position, but none compare to the Cardinals. They’ve allowed 24.7 PPR points per game to tight ends while no other team has allowed more than 18.1 points per game. They’ve allowed 2.64 PPR points per target while no other team has allowed more than 2.16 points per target. The have allowed an 82.1 percent completion-rate and 10.7 yards per target, both of which rank as the second-most. Their touchdown every 8.0 targets also trumps everyone. If Engram plays, he needs to be inserted into lineups as a high-end TE1. If he is forced to sit this game out, Ellison becomes an intriguing low-end TE1. *Update* Engram was a full participant all week in practice and will play in this game.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Total: 39.0
Line: BUF by 17.0

QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick:
What can we possibly say here that’d make any difference in who you would/wouldn’t play? After getting benched against for Josh Rosen multiple times, you’re not considering any Dolphins quarterback, even if it is a “revenge game.”

Josh Allen: It was a good time for Allen to have his bye week, as his accuracy issues started creeping up again over his last two games. Returning to a week against the Dolphins, this game could serve as a confidence-builder for the entire passing game. The Bills are projected for a massive 28.0 points in this game, which is one of the highest on the slate. Through five games, the Dolphins have allowed every quarterback they’ve played to at least 15.6 fantasy points, including 4-of-5 quarterbacks who totaled 20-plus points. They played Lamar Jackson in Week 1, though he didn’t need to run the ball at all, as he threw for 324 yards and five touchdowns on just 20 pass attempts. Oddly enough, the Dolphins allowed a rushing touchdown to both Tom Brady and Dak Prescott over the following two weeks. We know Allen has rushing upside, but the fact that the Dolphins have allowed a 9.86 percent touchdown-rate through give games is incredible. How incredible? No quarterback has topped that in a single season since way back in 1954. The 9.66 yards per attempt they’re allowing is nearly a full yard more than Patrick Mahomes averaged in 2018. This is a great matchup and you don’t want to miss it if Allen is available in your league. He’s a rock-solid QB1 this week with a high floor.

RBs
Kenyan Drake:
If there was going to be a week to use Drake, it was supposed to be last week against the Redskins. He did finish the game with 19 total opportunities (10 carries, 9 targets), though walking away with just 70 scoreless yards feels empty. The Dolphins obviously want to involve Mark Walton a bit, but Drake is the only one worth considering. I mentioned it last week and it holds true after last week’s game, but Drake’s touch count has been increasing as the weeks have gone on. The touch totals for Drake are (in order) 6-11-15-12-16, so regardless of how frustrating the Dolphins are, he has opportunity that’s hard to find. The Bills opponents have averaged just 24.0 touches per game, which doesn’t bode well for Drake’s projected ceiling in this game, as he’s seen 55 percent of the overall touches that’ve gone to running backs. He is, however, the primary passing-down back, as he’s seen 59 percent of their running back targets, so knowing the Dolphins are projected to lose by 17 points, it should mean more touches for him. The Bills have allowed five running back touchdowns in their five games, though matchups with Le’Veon Bell, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Sony Michel, and Derrick Henry will make that happen. Drake is in the RB3/4 conversation due to his projected 12-14 touches, but he doesn’t offer much of a ceiling.

Devin Singletary and Frank Gore: It seems all but certain that Singletary returns this week, though the question is: Will he overtake Gore as the feature back? With the way Gore has played, it seems unlikely. Over the three games Gore filled the workhorse role, he totaled 245 yards on 45 carries (5.4 yards per carry) with one touchdown, though T.J. Yeldon did take on most of the receiving work. We’ve only seen 10 carries in Singletary’s young career, so it may be a bit premature to say he’ll take over anyway. Fortunately, both running backs should see a lot of carries in this game against the Dolphins. Their opponents are averaging 31.2 carries per game, and that’s not even counting the 4.6 receptions available to them. The craziest part is that the Dolphins have already had their bye week, yet there are just two teams who have faced more rushing attempts. Not a single team of running backs have totaled less than 27 rushing attempts. They’ve been high-quality attempts, too, as the Dolphins have allowed a flattering 4.80 yards per carry with at least one rushing touchdown in 4-of-5 games. Even through the air, they’re allowing a lot of efficiency, as running backs have averaged a league-leading 2.69 PPR points per target against them. The Bills have capped Gore at 19 carries over the first five games, so worse case scenario, we’re probably looking at 10-12 touches for Singletary. Gore should be startable as a solid high-floor RB3 who should be a lock for 80-plus total yards. Singletary comes with a bit more risk, but also a lot more upside, putting him in the RB3 conversation as well, though you must understand the risk associated with him.

WRs
Preston Williams:
He was tied for the team lead with six targets last week, though he remained inefficient on them, finishing with just two catches for 31 yards. Over the last three games, he’s racked up a massive 25 targets, but has netted just 10 receptions for 145 yards and no touchdowns. You do want to follow targets and Williams’ 20 percent target share makes you at least consider him as an option. Fortunately, you can do a quick “nope” when looking at the matchup this week, as the Bills have tormented opposing wide receivers. There’s been just one wide receiver who’s been able to post numbers better than the WR35 against them, and that was Jamison Crowder, who saw a ridiculous 17 targets. In fact, there’s been just five receivers to score more than 7.6 PPR points against the Bills and four of them saw double-digit targets, while the other one scored a touchdown. Williams is nothing more than a touchdown-or-bust WR5 and you don’t want to rely on that out of this Dolphins passing game.

DeVante Parker: He’s now scored a touchdown in back-to-back games, but he’s also seen four targets in back-to-back games, meaning there’s a bust game coming soon and the Bills are just the team to give it to him. They may not have Tre’Davious White shadow him considering how involved and targeted Preston Williams is, but it won’t matter all that much, as the Bills have seen far better receivers than this duo and have allowed just one wide receiver to finish higher than WR35 against them. You don’t want to keep playing a receiver who’s getting minimal targets in a bad offense who’s in a bad matchup.

Albert Wilson: There have been five wide receivers who’ve finished with double-digit PPR points against the Bills, and three of them have been slot-heavy ones. Knowing that Wilson played 88 percent of his routes in the slot, it’s important information. They have had a mix of Taron Johnson, Siran Neal, and Kevin Johnson covering the slot, though they do run a lot of zone over the middle of the field, so there’s not one matchup in particular. The reason you should still be fading Wilson is due to the fact that he was sharing snaps with Allen Hurns, who actually ran more routes than Wilson. When playing a slot-heavy receiver, you need him to be locked into targets, and we cannot say that about Wilson right now, even if he did see six targets on a small amount of snaps last week.

John Brown: It’s always going to be difficult to rely on a Josh Allen wide receiver consistently, but knowing Brown has seen at least five targets in every game, including eight or more in 3-of-5 games, it’s a bit easier. Both he and Beasley have a 22 percent target share but the difference is that Brown has seen 34 percent of the team’s air yards, while Beasley has seen just 19 percent. The Dolphins were without their top cornerback Xavien Howard last week, though he hasn’t been good to begin with. On the year, he’s allowed 162 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets in coverage. His replacement was Ken Webster, who proceeded to allow two catches for 38 yards and a touchdown on just three targets in coverage. There’s just one team who’s seen fewer targets in coverage than this Dolphins secondary, and that’s because they’ve been unnecessary, as the targets have netted a robust 2.30 PPR points per target. Just five wide receivers have finished as top-30 options against them, so it’s been very top heavy, and Brown would likely be the one to benefit considering his share of air yards. He’s not a lock for production given the blowout nature of this game, but not many WR3s are, and that’s where Brown slots in this week. It’s worth noting he was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday with a groin injury.

Cole Beasley: As mentioned in the Brown paragraph, Beasley has seen practically the exact same target share as Brown, but his 19 percent of the team’s air yards pales in comparison to Brown’s 34 percent. It’s worth noting that Beasley has yet to score, too. But if you play in a PPR format, Beasley has totaled at least 9.0 points in 4-of-5 games, including 12.3 or more in three of them. The Dolphins have been forced to start Jomal Wiltz in the slot after they traded away Minkah Fitzpatrick, and that’s been a good thing for opposing receivers. Wiltz has allowed 7-of-11 passing for 121 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. Five of the 14 touchdowns the Dolphins have allowed have come in the slot, so it’s possible we see Beasley find the end zone for the first time this year. The issue is that the Dolphins haven’t allowed more than one top-36 wide receiver in any game this season, which seems likely to be Brown. Beasley is definitely in the WR4 conversation, but the lack of volume the passing game will need could lower his floor.

TEs
Mike Gesicki:
The good news: Gesicki finished with a career-high in yardage last week. The bad news: Gesicki was not a top-15 tight end. That’s how bad his career has gone, as his best performance isn’t even starter worthy in 14-team leagues. The Bills are not a team to target with any pass-catchers, as they’ve allowed a grand total of just 24 passing touchdowns over their last 21 games while intercepting 21 passes. On the year, they’ve allowed just 151 yards and no touchdowns to the tight end position, which amounts to the second-fewest points per game behind only the Patriots. Gesicki did see a career-high seven targets, so we’ll pay attention to see if he’s a thing moving forward, though this isn’t the matchup to play him and find out.

Dawson Knox: After playing a part-time role in the first three weeks where he tallied 51-57 percent of the snaps, Knox has slowly trended towards workhorse status. We’ve seen his snap percentage rise from 56.6 percent in Week 3, to 67.1 percent in Week 4, and then peaking at 71.9 percent in Week 5. During those three weeks, there were just six tight ends who ran more routes than him: Austin Hooper, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Gerald Everett, Zach Ertz, and Jason Witten. Now headed into a matchup with the Dolphins, he’s on the streaming radar. They’ve allowed a league-high 11.27 yards per target to the tight end position, which is nearly a full yard more than the Raiders did last year. The issue is that we haven’t seen a quarterback throw more than 32 pass attempts against them all year, which has limited the number of targets that tight ends can see. Fortunately, tight ends have caught 83.3 percent of targets thrown their way, which is also a league-high. If you’re desperate and looking for someone to fill your TE slot, Knox is not a bad option to take a shot on this week as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2.

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers

Total: 46.5
Line: GB by 7.0

QBs
Derek Carr:
He’ll come off his bye week to play a Packers defense that pressures the opposing quarterback an average of 43.3 percent of the time, which ranks second in the NFL. Of course, it helps the Packers will be on a short week while the Raiders have had two weeks to prepare. The Raiders pace of play has been among the slowest in the league, and it’s very unlikely Jon Gruden wants to go toe-to-toe with Rodgers, so expect them to stick around the 60-ish plays per game unless they fall behind early, which is possible. That’s happened with two quarterbacks this year, as both Mitch Trubisky and Dak Prescott are the only two who finished with more than 32 pass attempts. Prescott did throw for 463 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw three interceptions. Trubisky was horrendous and didn’t throw a single touchdown while finishing as the QB31. It’s difficult to trust Carr knowing the Packers defense has more forced more interceptions (7) than they have allowed touchdowns (6). They’re allowing just a 57.4 percent completion-rate, which is likely due to the pressure they bring. Carr has been the second-best quarterback in the league under pressure, as he’s posted a nearly identical quarterback rating while under pressure than he has while in a clean pocket. It’s a small sample size, though, as Carr ranked 23rd among 30 quarterbacks last year. Carr is the opposite of a safe streaming option. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finished top-15 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he finished outside the top-25 this week. He’s not a recommended streamer on the road as a 7.0-point underdog.

Aaron Rodgers: Here are Rodgers’ finishes by week: QB24-QB19-QB24-QB2-QB22-QB12. He’s finished outside the top-20 quarterbacks more than he’s finished inside the top-12. This is the world we live in. The lack of continuity with his wide receivers is real and it appears he lost another one (Geronimo Allison) on Monday night. If his starting receivers are Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, and Jake Kumerow, you just kind of throw up your hands and admit defeat. The Raiders are a team that can be exposed through the air, as they’ve held just one quarterback under 7.7 yards per attempt this season, and that was Jacoby Brissett when he was without T.Y. Hilton. Still, he somehow managed to throw three touchdowns in that game. Patrick Mahomes played against them without Tyreek Hill and threw for 443 yards and four touchdowns. The Bears played against them with backup Chase Daniel and he threw for 231 yards and two touchdowns. Your move, Rodgers. The Raiders have had to deal with injuries/suspensions of their own on defense. Bottom line is that the Raiders have allowed 8.03 yards per attempt and a 6.35 percent touchdown-rate through five games while playing against handicapped opponents, and they’re only generating a league-low 24.2 percent pressure-rate on quarterbacks. You should expect the Packers to play to their strengths, which is running the football right now. They don’t have a ton of time to gameplan for this game, so they’ll be happy to just walk away with a win. The Packers team-implied total is 26.8 points, so he’s still in the QB1 conversation, but he’s no longer an elite starter in fantasy. Can Rodgers go off? Sure, and you should slide him up a tier if Adams returns, but it doesn’t appear likely.

RBs
Josh Jacobs:
Where did we leave off with Jacobs? We know Gruden talked about getting him more involved in the passing-game, and he did see a season-high three targets against the Bears in a game they were leading throughout, so it seems things were moving the right way. He’s now totaled 24, 19, and 29 touches in their three wins, but just 12 and 10 touches in their two losses. This is worrisome when you see they’re full touchdown underdogs going into Green Bay. The Packers have been a run-funnel defense, allowing a massive 29.2 PPR points per game to the position, though they have been better over the last two weeks, which likely has more to do with gamescript, as Ezekiel Elliott finished with just 12 carries and Kerryon Johnson finished with just 13 carries. If we don’t get the passing-down work Gruden talked about, you’re left with a big dud in fantasy lineups. Again, we seemed to be headed in the right direction before the bye week, but I’m not buying that it’s set in stone after one week with three targets. If Jacobs were locked into 18 touches in this game, I’d be all over him as an RB1 this week, though that’s hardly a guarantee. Knowing the Packers have allowed 4.92 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns (tied for the most in the league), Jacobs should be locked into season-long lineups as an RB2. As for DFS, he is appealing for tournaments, but he’s not quite safe enough for cash games, though his price makes it tempting.

Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: How quick can the perception surrounding a running back change? A lot when you have Matt LaFleur as a head coach, apparently. After Jones flat-out dropped an easy touchdown pass, Jones found himself on the bench for much of the game, allowing Williams to play a ton of snaps. He did extremely well with that opportunity, racking up 136 yards and a touchdown on 18 touches. Was this a one-game punishment for Jones or has this turned back into a 50/50 split? Don’t be dramatic? In the four games both of them were on the field, Jones has played 136 snaps while Williams has played 128 snaps. The Raiders have faced an average of 27.2 running back touches per game and that’s with a record of 3-2. In their two defeats, running backs totaled 62 touches in those games. Knowing the Packers are seven-point favorites, they’re likely to win this game, which, in turn, should make 30-plus touches available between these two running backs. The Raiders have been good against the run this year, as they’ve allowed just one running back to total more than 58 yards on the ground, though losing linebacker Vontaze Burfict for the year (suspension) surely won’t help. When contemplating what to expect in this game, it comes down to your thoughts on how LaFleur handles the snaps. My best guess would be that Jones edges out Williams in touches, though it’s near an equal split. Jones should be played as a middling RB2 with upside, while Williams can be slotted in as a semi-decent floor RB3.

WRs
Tyrell Williams:
He was expected back for this game, though it appears he’s no lock to play, so we’ll pay attention to the practice reports throughout the week and I’ll update the notes here by Saturday. Knowing it’s a foot injury, it could be problematic to his effectiveness, too. We’d watched him decline as the year’s gone on, as he’s failed to top 46 yards since Week 1, though a touchdown in each game has kept him afloat. The Packers aren’t using Jaire Alexander in a shadow role right now, which means Williams would see a mix of Alexander and Kevin King. That’s a good thing for Williams, as King has been beat deep rather routinely. He’s allowing a massive 20.1 yards per reception this year. Over the last four weeks, he’s allowed a league-high 383 yards in his coverage. King’s side of the field is where Williams lines up 55 percent of the time. The injury is the biggest concern, so check back on Saturday, but if he does play, he has the looks of a receiver who should be in lineups as a low-end WR3 with some upside. Update: Gruden revealed that Williams is dealing with plantar fasciitis. We’ve seen Amari Cooper play through it, so it doesn’t slam the door shut on a return. *Update* Williams has been ruled out for this game. If you’re looking for his replacement on the team, Trevor Davis is likely to walk into the starting lineup. 

Zay Jones: He was traded to the Raiders during their bye week, which allowed him two weeks to take in the playbook, though it’s tough to say Jones is on the fantasy radar. Outside of one eight-target game from Hunter Renfrow, no non-Tyrell Williams Raiders receiver has seen more than five targets in a game. It seems like they’d ask Jones to play on the perimeter, which is an area he hasn’t been nearly as productive over his career. He’s not someone you should consider this week, but we’ll revisit his usage after this game. *Update* With Tyrell Williams being ruled out, we could see Jones much more involved than initially expected, though it’s tough to rely on him for more than WR5 production. 

Davante Adams: From the interview Adams had last Friday, it sounded like he’d be out a while. If things trend in the right direction, I’ll come back and update his notes here. For now, prepare to be without him. *Update* He’s been ruled out for this game. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Despite no Adams the last two weeks, Valdes-Scantling has seen just six targets and recorded three catches for 66 scoreless yards. Apparently, he’s not quite ready for a featured role in the offense. The Raiders present opportunity to bounce-back, as they’ve allowed a massive 14.38 yards per reception this year, which is where Valdes-Scantling typically offers value (down the field). The 2.02 PPR points per target the Raiders have allowed to wide receivers ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. He’ll see a mix of Gareon Conley and Daryl Worley in coverage, a duo that’s allowed 30-of-52 passing for 356 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage. They haven’t been what you’d describe as good, but it’s worth noting the Raiders have been worked in the slot, big-time. Valdes-Scantling only plays about 11 percent of his snaps there, which obviously hurts his floor. It’s tough to say he’s not startable as Rodgers’ top option, though he’s not must-start material, either. Consider him a borderline WR3/4 this week who has a low floor with his recent target share. He missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle/knee injury. We’ll monitor this throughout the week. *Update* He did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but did get in a limited practice on Friday, and is listed as questionable. He doesn’t appear to be a lock to play in this game, so it’d be a good idea to grab Allen Lazard to replace him, if needed. 

Allen Lazard: You have to assume Lazard earned some of Rodgers’ trust last week. When the game was somewhat on the line in a third-and-long, Rodgers threw a dime along the sideline that Lazard hauled in for the touchdown. There were two targets like that where Lazard was trusted in a one-on-one situation, highlighting the trust he may have from Rodgers. He didn’t play a full complement of snaps, but given Valdes-Scantling’s issues and Allison’s likely absence, he might this week. The Raiders have allowed 10 wide receivers to finish as top-45 options against them, so it’s a matchup where there are likely to be two Packers receivers be relevant. If you’re looking for a hail-mary who’s available in 99 percent of leagues, Lazard could be an emergency bye week replacement.

Darrius Shepherd: With Geronimo Allison almost certainly out on a short week, Shepherd is the one who filled the slot role for the Packers in Week 6. He played over 80 percent of his snaps in the slot, which is where the Raiders have been absolutely crushed this year. Safety Lamarcus Joyner has been playing the role of nickel cornerback and it’s backfired, as he’s allowed 25-of-32 passing for 241 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. The issue with trusting Shepherd is because he saw just two targets in Week 6 and one of them bounced right off his facemask, popped up in the air, and allowed Justin Coleman to intercept Rodgers in the red zone. That’s not going to do him any favors. The matchup is a great one, but there’s too much risk here.

TEs
Darren Waller:
It’ll be good to get Waller back from his bye, as fantasy football cannot handle missing valuable tight ends. Waller has seen at least seven targets in 4-of-5 games this year, making him a must-start no matter the matchup. That includes the Packers who are very good against the tight end position. Over the last 22 games (back when the Mike Pettine defense was installed), they’ve allowed just 986 yards and five touchdowns to the tight end position. That amounts to just 44.8 yards per game and a touchdown every 4.5 games. There’s been just one tight end targeted more than a handful of times against the Packers, and it was Zach Ertz, who finished with 7/65/0 on eight targets. In fact, over those 22 games since the start of last year, there have been just six tight ends who’ve been targeted at least seven times. Each of them finished with at least 10.5 PPR points, which is like fantasy gold to tight ends in 2019. You have to start him as a solid TE1 regardless of the matchup, though it’s not a week to attack him in cash lineups.

Jimmy Graham: Watching Graham run routes out there is somewhat painful. He still has the ability to win jump-ball scenarios, but his movements are clunky, even worse than Rob Gronkowski’s last year. He’s currently the TE18 in fantasy football due to his one big performance against the Eagles, which was honestly the most unpredictable of them all, as the Eagles have done very well against tight ends. That was also the only game Graham saw more than five targets, so his floor is nowhere near what many want/need it to be. The Raiders were the absolute worst team in the league against tight ends last year (wasn’t even close) and have not been much better in 2019. They’ve allowed the seventh-most points per game to the position despite seeing an average of just 7.2 targets per game. With all the injuries to the Packers pass-catchers, it’s hard to completely pass on Graham, especially when the matchup is as good as this one. Knowing there’s no sure things outside the top six tight ends, Graham is one again on the low-end TE1 radar.

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