Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Total: 45.0
Line: Pick Em

QBs
Kirk Cousins: What a difference matchups make for Cousins, eh? Over the last two weeks, he’s completed 44-of-56 passes for 639 yards and six touchdowns, vaulting him up the rankings. If you were here, you knew those games were coming. Will it continue in Week 7? The one part many are missing here is that Cousins has still thrown just 56 passes in those two games. The Vikings were and still are a run-first team. Their 47:53 pass to run ratio is the second-most run-heavy in the league, so he needs to get it done on efficiency, or he’s not going to be a very good fantasy option. The Lions have not been a team who’s allowed very good efficiency, as quarterbacks have completed just 56.5 percent of passes (3rd-lowest mark in the league, behind only the Patriots and 49ers) and averaged just 7.04 yards per attempt. In two games against the Lions last year, Cousins threw the ball just 50 times in the two games combined. The good news for Cousins is that the Lions opponents have averaged a league-high 69.8 plays per game, which is quite the difference from the 59.2 plays per game the Vikings average. There should be more plays available because of that, but with how generous the Lions have been on the ground this year, it could just mean more rushing attempts. Gamescript will matter in this game, and if the Lions jump out in front, they’ll likely slow the game down quite a bit. Cousins should be considered a middling QB2 this week who will likely come back down to earth.

Matthew Stafford: It’s now four straight weeks we’ve seen Stafford throw the ball 34 times or less, which is not a great recipe for fantasy success when he doesn’t offer anything on the ground. Now on to play the Vikings defense that’s allowed just 6.43 yards per attempt on the season? That’s the sixth-lowest mark in football.  They’ve allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks despite seeing the sixth-most passing attempts against them. Many will look at the 10 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed and think it’s not a bad matchup, though a lot of that has come in garbage time against Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, and Carson Wentz. This should be a well fought game throughout as it’s a divisional matchup against two teams familiar with each other. In two games against the Vikings last year, Stafford totaled just 315 yards and no touchdowns… in the two games combined. Stafford is just a mid-to-low-end QB2 this week.

RBs
Dalvin Cook: Last week was a bit disappointing from a usage standpoint for Cook, as he received 16 carries while Alexander Mattison got 14 of them. The game wasn’t completely out of reach for the Eagles until the fourth quarter, so it wasn’t all garbage time. It was a brutal matchup, though, and that’s something we talked about here last week. Fortunately, the matchup this week looks much better. When the Lions acquired Damon Harrison last year, they became a much better run-stuffing unit, though it hasn’t transferred to 2019. They’ve now allowed 4.65 yards per carry and 7.53 yards per target to running backs, which are both above the league average. It’s led to four running backs finishing as top-12 options against them, including another two who finished as top-24 options. They’ve allowed a 20-plus PPR point running back in 4-of-5 games, with the only exception being the Eagles when Miles Sanders led their team with 14.6 PPR points. The Lions are also going to be playing on just five days rest, which benefits the Vikings, even though this game is in Detroit. Cook’s opportunity has been elite (outside of last week) and the matchup is above-average, which makes him an elite RB1 and one who can be safely played in cash.

Kerryon Johnson: Last week was supposed to be a smash spot for Johnson, though the Lions didn’t run the ball nearly as much as they should’ve. Just 13 rush attempts from Johnson when you were leading the entire game? The good news is that he’s now received 64-of-84 running back touches since they let go of C.J. Anderson. He’s seen at least three targets in three of the last four games, which also makes him gamescript-proof. The Vikings are not a fantasy matchup to target with running backs, as they’ve now allowed just one touchdown on 124 carries this year. Teams of running backs have averaged just 24.7 touches per game against the Vikings, which is not promising, but that’s where Johnson’s 76-percent touch-share comes in handy, as he’d get 18.8 touches if all those numbers held true. Any time you have a running back with that type of opportunity, you play him as an RB2, at minimum. We saw Johnson against the Vikings last year in Week 9 when he tallied just 37 yards on 12 carries and seven yards on three receptions. While that’s a worst-case scenario, that game was in Minnesota, which doesn’t help. Still, Johnson’s shown a floor of 11.3 PPR points over the last four games, so continue plugging him into your lineup. He’s a middling RB2 this week, but not one you should be playing in cash lineups.

WRs
Adam Thielen: We’re now six weeks into the season and Thielen doesn’t have a single game with more than eight targets. If that doesn’t highlight the lack of pass attempts, nothing will. Touchdowns have masked the fact that he’s been held to 57 or less yards in 4-of-6 games. The craziest part about it is that Thielen’s target share is 25 percent, which is top-10 in the league, so it’s difficult to ask for more than he’s getting. The Lions have been a brutal matchup for perimeter wide receivers, which is what Thielen has been this year (slot just 31.5 percent of the time). Allen Lazard was the first non-slot receiver who scored more than 11.3 PPR points against them. Of the big games the Lions allowed to wide receivers, they were to Larry Fitzgerald, Nelson Agholor, and Keenan Allen, all guys who play in the slot more than half the time. You have to wonder who the Lions will use Darius Slay to shadow, as he typically takes on the No. 1 receiver. That can be viewed as Thielen considering his target share, but it could also be Diggs based on his performance last week. The Lions did do a good job containing Thielen last year, as he finished with 4/22/1 in the first matchup and then 5/80/0 in the second matchup, and that was during the time he played much more slot snaps. He’s still in the WR2 conversation this week, but he’s not someone you need to actively target in DFS.

Stefon Diggs: Welcome back to fantasy owners’ hearts, Mr. Diggs. He saw a season-high 11 targets while dominating the Eagles secondary last week for 167 yards and three touchdowns. That helps make his overall target numbers seem respectable, but we cannot forget he’s finished 3-of-6 games with four or less targets. We could see the Lions use Darius Slay to shadow him this week, though that would leave Thielen with Rashaan Melvin, so they could choose to have the cornerbacks simply play sides. The Lions have been tough on perimeter receivers, as Melvin himself has been very good, allowing just a 48.4 percent catch-rate in his coverage. Knowing the targets are hard to come by in this offense, it’s not good to see the Lions allowing just a 53.1 percent catch-rate to wide receivers as a whole. The 1.38 PPR points per target they’ve allowed ranks as the third-best mark in the league, behind only the Patriots and Bills. While Diggs had a big performance in Week 6, he’s likely to cause some frustration in this matchup. His upside should keep him in lineups as a WR3 but he’s far from a sure thing this week.

Kenny Golladay: The eight-plus target streak continued for Golladay last week, and it’s now five games in a row to start the season. He’s clearly the alpha-dog in the offense while Jones has faded into the background, and that’s highlighted by his 38.5 percent of the team’s air yards, which ranks ninth in the NFL. The Vikings are likely to use Xavier Rhodes in coverage, though that shouldn’t scare you off him. Through six games, Rhodes has allowed 28-of-33 passes to be completed in his coverage for 266 yards and a touchdown. That’s just 9.5 yards per reception, but the Eagles gave a blueprint on how to get their top receiver involved heavily last week when Alshon Jeffery racked up 10 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. They’ll have to lower his average depth of target (13.4 yards) to get there, but it’s doable. Knowing he’s getting eight-plus targets per game, you play him no matter what, including this game. He should be considered a locked-in WR2 every week, though he may be towards the lower-end of that variety this week.

Marvin Jones: After he was going back and forth with Golladay as the 1A and 1B last year, Jones has clearly faded into the No. 2 option this year. He’s seen in-between 4-6 targets in 4-of-5 games with a nine-target game mixed in between. His average depth of target is two full yards higher than Golladay’s, so he’ll be more of the boom-or-bust variety regardless of the target numbers. He’s likely going to be covered by Trae Waynes this week, the speedy Vikings cornerback who has done a great job keeping the play in front of him this year, allowing just 9.6 yards per reception in his coverage. He’s allowed just one play of more than 26 yards (went for 37 yards) on 40 targets in coverage this year. You’ll want to consider Jones in games the Lions are forced into shootouts against reverse funnel defenses, but this isn’t one of them, making him nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR5.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph: He ended his streak of one-target games at three last week. It’s not anything to get excited about, as he saw three targets against the Eagles, totaling a season-high 36 yards. While some would say it’s a step in the right direction, I’d say it was simply due to increased pass attempts from a run-first team. The Lions have allowed two top-12 tight end performances to tight ends this year, though they were to Travis Kelce (TE5) and Zach Ertz (TE12), who both saw at least seven targets. Even if you’re hoping for a touchdown, the Lions haven’t allowed one of those to tight ends, either. While the 9.93 yards per target they’ve allowed to tight ends is tempting, it’s a very small sample size (29 targets). Guys, he has topped 12 yards once all season… don’t play him.

T.J. Hockenson: It’s been a bumpy ride for Hockenson, as he’s failed to top 27 yards in each of his last four games. He almost hauled in his third touchdown of the year, but when he landed hard on the ground, the ball popped out of his hands. He’s seen at least three targets in every game, which is not the highest floor, but among tight ends, it’s somewhat appealing in 2019. Hockenson’s top two performances this year came in games he had a great matchup (ARI, KC), so maybe we just pay attention to the defense to dictate whether or not we trust him. The problem with that is we have a mixed bag in Week 7 against the Vikings. They’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends, but that’s almost solely to do with the fact that they’ve seen 64 targets (over 10 targets per game), which is the most in the NFL. When you play against Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, Evan Engram, and Zach Ertz, your numbers are going to look a bit worse than most. Somehow, despite that competition, they’ve allowed just 1.30 PPR points per target, the third-lowest mark in the league. Hockenson is not a preferred option this week.

Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans

Total: 38.5
Line: TEN by 1.0

QBs
Philip Rivers: It was good to see Rivers come alive in the second half because it was getting a bit worrisome after his poor outing against the Broncos. He has now thrown for at least 293 yards in 5-of-6 games, so there’s no problem with his attempts/yardage, but knowing he has two games with no touchdowns mixed in is the part that’s worrisome. He had a stretch like this at the end of last year where he threw two interceptions in three straight games, and the slump lasted four weeks until he threw three touchdowns in the divisional game against the Patriots. The good news is that he now has all his weapons back on the field and healthy. He’ll need them against the Titans, who have been one of the better pass defenses in the league. They’ve yet to allow a quarterback to throw for more than 7.50 yards per attempt and haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish inside the top-12, which includes games against Matt Ryan, Josh Allen, and Gardner Minshew. Each of those quarterbacks did finish with 17-18 fantasy points, though each of them rushed for 18-27 yards, raising their ceiling a tad. I don’t know if Rivers could collapse after running 18 yards. I mean, c’mon guys, he needs to save some of that energy for his nine children. The Chargers are projected for just 18.8 points this week, which doesn’t bode well for his prospects in fantasy. It also doesn’t help that these are two of the slowest-paced teams in the league. Rivers should be able to post middling QB2 numbers this week but not much more than that.

Ryan Tannehill: Well that was a quick change of heart. Going from no touchdowns entering Week 6, to not having a starting job in Week 7 is the reality that Marcus Mariota lives in. I’d talked about the fact that Mariota hadn’t been exactly good through five weeks, and apparently the Titans brass agreed, though I thought he should’ve at least got a warning shot. Whatever the case, the team announced Tannehill as the starter this week. He’s shown the ability to be competent in the NFL, and he’s been somewhat close to Mariota. This isn’t a new comparison for me, as it’s something I mentioned back in June on Twitter. Here’s the chart I posted back then:

That’s not including what Mariota has done this year, but you can see the resemblance. You can also say Tannehill didn’t have the talent Mariota’s had this year, so it’ll be interesting to see how he does. The Chargers used to be a daunting matchup for quarterbacks, but that’s not the case with all the injuries they’ve suffered. They haven’t allowed a quarterback more than 182 yards over the last three weeks, but when you see the lineup, you understand why. Josh Rosen, Joe Flacco, and Devlin Hodges are the quarterbacks they’ve played and none of them totaled more than 24 pass attempts, but each of them threw one touchdown. Despite those easy matchups, the Chargers have still allowed 8.26 yards per attempt and a touchdown rate of 6.45 percent. So, how have they allowed the ninth-fewest points to the quarterback position? Because their games have netted a league-low 118.5 plays per game, and their opponents have averaged a measly 55.5 plays per game, which has led to just 25.8 pass attempts per game. While Tannehill isn’t going to chuck the ball 40 times, he should be somewhat efficient when he does throw, making him a low-end QB2.

RBs
Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: Since Gordon returned to the team, he’s totaled 20 carries to Ekeler’s eight carries. On the receiving end, we’ve seen Gordon targeted 10 times to Ekeler’s 20 times, though 16 of them came in the Week 5 game against the Broncos. It sure seems like this has gone back to the timeshare it was in 2018, though they obviously haven’t been as effective. The Titans haven’t been a matchup to target heavily with running backs, as they’ve allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns in the 22 games under Mike Vrabel. They’ve allowed just three total touchdowns to running backs on the season, which ranks as the third lowest in the NFL, behind only the Patriots and 49ers. Going back to the start of last year, there have been just two running backs who finished better than the RB12 against them. Knowing we’re splitting touches, it’s tough to say Gordon belongs in the RB1 conversation like he used to be, particularly in a tough matchup. Another factor you must consider is the slow pace of play, as both of these teams are in the bottom seven in terms of total plays averaged per game. The one area they’ve been tagged, however, is through the air, as they’ve allowed 40-of-50 passing to running backs for 263 yards. We have seen Gordon involved in the passing-game (10 targets in the two games), so he should remain in lineups as a mid-to-high-end-RB2 who should get the goal-line carries. Ekeler falls into the RB3 category as someone who lacks major upside, as the Titans don’t pull away and blow out anyone, meaning it’s unlikely there’s a whole lot of passes thrown.

Derrick Henry: Will the move to Tannehill affect Henry in a big way? Probably not. What I will say is that Tannehill wasn’t big into targeting his running backs while with the Dolphins, though offensive scheme will come into play in a lot of cases. The Chargers had gaping holes all over the place against the Steelers, when they allowed them to run for 116 yards and a touchdown on 33 carries while also racking up eight receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown through the air. It was more of the same the prior week against the Broncos when Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman combined for 175 yards and a touchdown on the ground. It’s clear the Chargers have missed defensive end Melvin Ingram who’s been out the last two weeks with a hamstring injury. We don’t know if he’ll be out there this week just yet, but if he’s out, it’s an upgrade for Henry, as the Chargers have allowed 5.22 yards per carry on the snaps he’s not on the field (Ingram missed practice Wednesday). You are always looking for that big run with Henry, and the Chargers have allowed five run-plays go for 20-plus yards this year, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league. He should be in lineups as a solid RB2 this week and if Ingram’s out, it could be a big day. *Update* Ingram is listed as doubtful, upgrading Henry’s matchup. 

WRs
Keenan Allen: After he was the league’s No. 1 fantasy receiver for the first month, Allen has fallen by the wayside over the last three weeks while seeing just 5-6-6 targets. The matchup last week was the most frustrating because the Steelers had been absolutely railed by slot-heavy receivers this year, and the matchup seemed tailormade for Allen’s skill-set. This cannot last very long and it should come to an end against the Titans, as Logan Ryan has been the favorite target of opposing quarterbacks this year. He’s now allowed a reception every 7.5 snaps in coverage, which ranks as the 16th-most among the 63 cornerbacks who’ve played at least 25 percent of snaps in the slot. We saw the Falcons target Mohamed Sanu 12 times in their matchup that amounted to nine catches for 91 yards. It’s tough to say this is a smash spot for Allen, as the game pace is expected to be slow and the Titans have still yet to allow a bigger performance than Sanu’s WR12 finish, but he needs to remain in fantasy lineups as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 who’ll snap out of it sooner rather than later.

Mike Williams: The Chargers really want to get Williams going, as evidenced by his team-high 23 targets over the last two weeks. He’s finished with 72 or more yards in three of the last four games he’s played, which is more than Keenan Allen can say. The Titans have been a tough defense to play for wide receivers, as they’ve allowed the ninth-fewest points per game to them. Williams will see a mix of all three cornerbacks, as the Chargers are moving him around quite a bit. Malcolm Butler should be someone they target with Williams, as he’s allowed 10 touchdowns in his coverage since the start of 2018, which is among the most in football. The lack of projected plays and points in this game is the biggest concern, though. Williams is trending in the right direction, but this matchup isn’t one you must play him if you have him. He should be considered a touchdown-reliant WR3/4-type option this week.

Corey Davis: Will Tannehill actually target Davis on a consistent basis? Through six games, Davis has yet to see more than six targets in a game. For context, his six targets in Week 4 ranks as the 227th highest targeted game in 2019. There have been 226 occasions this year where a receiver has seen more targets than Davis’ season-high this year. Ugh. The Chargers may not choose to have Casey Hayward shadow Davis with how little he’s been used, though if they do shadow anyone, it’d be him. Hayward has been the lone bright spot in the secondary, as injuries have decimated much of the talent around him. We’ve watched four wide receivers finish as top-15 options against the Chargers, so it’s not an absolute avoid matchup for every wide receiver, but it’s difficult to trust Davis when he’s not seeing more than 4-6 targets per game. He should be considered a WR5 until we see his target numbers increase.

A.J. Brown: Even worse than Davis, Brown has yet to exceed five targets in a game this year. He’s been highly efficient with his targets, so it makes little sense, but this is what we’ve come to expect from the Titans offense. While Davis likely deals with Casey Hayward, it should allow Brown to do some work against backup cornerback Michael Davis. He’s an undrafted free agent from back in 2017 who’s actually done a decent job when filling in over the last three years. On 78 targets in his coverage, he’s allowed just 50 receptions for 531 yards and one touchdown, though it’s important to note that all cornerbacks looked good in this scheme when the back-end of it (the safeties) were healthy. In the end, he’s still a backup player on an ailing Chargers secondary. There’s a reason they’re allowing 1.97 PPR points per target, which ranks as the eighth-most in the league. Even if that number holds true, Brown’s lack of targets make him nothing more than a WR5 alongside his teammate Davis.

Adam Humphries: Small sample sizes, guys. Remember in the first preseason when Mariota played his first game with Humphries and targeted him on essentially every pass he made? How’d that work out? Many are saying Humphries will be better with Tannehill because of the way he was used in Week 6. While this may be an upgrade for Humphries, we can’t make assumptions based on one half of a game where he caught six balls for 47 scoreless yards. The Chargers have Desmond King covering the slot, and he was a breakout star last year, but it’s proved to be a lot tougher when the back-end of the defense isn’t healthy. He’s allowed 12-of-14 passing for 187 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage, which makes for a perfect 158.3 QB Rating. This is just one year after he allowed just an 87.1 QB Rating in coverage on 91 targets, so it was no small sample size. It is worth noting that the struggles haven’t really been in large quantities, though, as no slot-heavy receiver has finished with more than four catches for 89 yards against the Chargers. In fact, we saw JuJu Smith-Schuster held to just one catch for seven yards last week. Let’s play the wait-and-see game with Humphries and this offense.

TEs
Hunter Henry: Of course it’s good to see Henry back in the lineup and healthy, but even more so when you know the current landscape of the tight end position. Head coach Anthony Lynn lied to us last week when he said that Henry would be limited in his return, as he played what was close to a full-time role in Week 6. It led to him seeing nine targets and hauling in eight of them for 100 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans were one of the best teams in the league against tight ends last year, as they allowed just three tight ends to finish as top-12 options. This year, they’ve apparently changed their priorities because 3-of-6 tight ends have finished as top-10 options with another two tight ends finishing as TE13 and TE15. But there’s a catch… four of the five top-15 tight ends have caught a touchdown. Without those touchdowns, none of them would’ve finished anywhere close to a top-15 option, as not a single one of them totaled more than 37 yards. The only tight end who’s topped 37 yards against them was Austin Hooper, who saw 11 targets and hauled in nine of them for 130 yards. You’re playing Henry as a TE1 from here on out for better or for worse, though this matchup may be more touchdown-dependent than most realize.

Delanie Walker: It was good to see Walker out there for more snaps in Week 6, as he played 38-of-66 snaps, running routes on 30 of them. So, he’s essentially no longer a blocker, but a receiver. On the year, he’s been kept back to block on just 21 percent of his snaps. He saw six targets last week, too, putting him back on the map after two two-target performances. The Chargers have been straight-up dominant against tight ends… in every game not against the Texans. For whatever reason, the Texans tight ends were able to crush them for eight catches, 122 yards, and three touchdowns in Week 3. Outside of them, the Chargers haven’t allowed more than one catch to a starting tight end. It does highlight that they’re able to be beat in that area if a team really wants to attack that part of the field, and it makes sense because the Chargers are playing backup safeties. Roderic Teamer has allowed 15-of-16 passing in his coverage for 230 yards and three touchdowns. Maybe attack him? Walker is back on the low-end TE1 radar with his increase in snaps. *Update* Walker is now listed as questionable after not practicing on Friday. It’s never good to see a player downgraded late in the week, so it’ll be good to have an alternate plan.

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 50.5
Line: SEA by 3.0

QBs
Lamar Jackson: After watching him demolish the Dolphins in Week 1, the passing attack hasn’t been very good the last five weeks. Here’s what I’m talking about:

He’s reverted to the quarterback he was last year, though it didn’t help that he was without Marquise Brown last week. Fortunately, he has started running the ball a lot more and has racked up an average of 90.8 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns over the last five weeks. The matchup against the Seahawks hasn’t been daunting to opponents, as they’ve allowed 5-of-6 quarterbacks finish as top-18 options. Over the last two weeks, we have seen the struggling Jared Goff throw for 395 yards and a touchdown, while the struggling Baker Mayfield was able to throw for 249 yards and a touchdown and added 35 rushing yards with a touchdown. Both of them were able to finish as top-12 options against the Seahawks. Looking back at 2018, the Seahawks played against one truly mobile quarterback and it was Cam Newton, who rushed for 63 yards while throwing for 253 yards and two touchdowns. Knowing how high the floor has been against the Seahawks this year, Jackson is obviously a safe floor QB1. You play him every week in season-long, though the question is whether to play him in DFS this week. He’s safe in cash lineups, especially when you consider this game has one of the highest totals on the slate. He’s always in play for tournaments, no matter the matchup.

Russell Wilson: He’s thrown the ball 35 times or less in 5-of-6 games, yet Wilson is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback through six weeks. He ranks second in passing touchdowns despite ranking 17th in passing attempts. He’s been pretty flawless. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense has not. The 8.16 yards per attempt they’ve allowed ranks as the seventh-highest mark in football, which is higher than the Raiders mark of 8.03 yards per attempt. Their sack rate of 5.0 percent is eighth lowest in football, as they’ve pressured the opposing quarterback no more than 33 percent over each of the last five games. The best part for Wilson is that the Ravens haven’t even played top-notch competition for much of the young season. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, none of the quarterbacks they’ve played have been particularly good this year. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph/Develin Hodges, and Andy Dalton. Those quarterbacks combined to average 8.16 yards per attempt while Wilson has yet to average less than 8.1 yards per attempt in a game this year. You likely now understand why they went out and traded for Marcus Peters. They’ve allowed just a 2.90 percent touchdown-rate, but knowing the quarterbacks they’ve played, it kind of makes sense, right? Does it help that Earl Thomas has intel on his former team? Not enough to worry about Wilson whose team is projected for 26.8 points. Wilson is locked in as a high-end QB1 for this contest. He can be considered for cash lineups knowing the Ravens have fared much better against the run.

RBs
Mark Ingram: Knowing how much Lamar Jackson took off the plate last week, Ingram owners are lucky he found his way into the end zone against the Bengals last week. He’s now finished with less than 77 or less total yards in 4-of-6 games, meaning he likely needs to find the end zone to get anywhere close to RB2 value. Against the Seahawks, his lack of workhorse role might work against him, as running backs have averaged a measly 22.5 touches per game against them. The Ravens running backs have amassed 27.8 touches per game, with Ingram getting 58.7 percent of them. The highest percentage he recorded was 66.7 percent of them back in Week 3. The Seahawks have been middle-of-the-road against the run, as Nick Chubb was the first running back who finished with more than 69 yards on the ground, though he was the second running back in as many weeks who scored two touchdowns, as Todd Gurley did the week prior. The Seahawks have allowed six rushing touchdowns this year, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in football. Ingram has received eight of the 14 team carries available inside of the five-yard-line, converting six of them for touchdowns. While he’s done well on them, it’s concerning that he’s totaled just 57 percent of those carries, while Gus Edwards has the remaining 43 percent. This is projected to be a high-scoring affair, making Ingram a middling RB2 who should score, but he has a lower floor than most in this territory.

Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: We saw another monster workload for Carson in Week 6, as he totaled 28 touches against the Browns, leading to 159 yards and a touchdown despite missing two starters on the offensive line. The Ravens might look like a great matchup on paper seeing they’ve allowed 4.46 yards per carry on the year with seven rushing touchdowns, but there’s more to that story. If you were to remove the Browns game when defensive tackle Brandon Williams was out, they’ve allowed just 223 yards on 67 carries (3.33 yards per carry) with three touchdowns in the other five games combined. “But Mike, we can’t just pick and choose which games we remove.” Well, we can when the evidence has been there with Williams for a long time now. When he’s out of the lineup, it’s a different team. Are they as good as the former Ravens teams have been? Probably not, but they’re not a matchup to aggressively target with running backs. It would certainly raise Carson’s projection if Penny missed another week, though he should be able to go. You’re playing Carson as an RB1 most weeks, though this is one you may want to dial back expectations to the high-end RB2 territory. If Penny is out, he’s absolutely worthy of cash-game consideration knowing the workload he’d receive.

WRs
Marquise Brown: He didn’t practice all last week, so stay tuned to updates, though we’ll assume he’s going to play this week, as he wasn’t scratched until gameday, which should mean he’s close. The Seahawks play a zone-heavy coverage and keep to their sides, so there’s not one particular cornerback who’d cover him, though he does line up on Shaquill Griffin‘s side of the field most often. He’s their best cornerback in coverage, as he’s allowing just 6.43 yards per target in his coverage and has allowed just one play to go for more than 17 yards. Not knowing if Brown is fully healthy is the biggest concern, as they described his injury as an ankle sprain. He’s someone who had surgery on his foot this offseason, so you hate to see issues in that area, especially for a pass-catcher. We’ve seen three different receivers post 100-yard games against the Seahawks, though each of them saw at least 11 targets. Even if Brown plays, he should be considered a boom-or-bust WR4 option. Knowing the Ravens have their bye in Week 8, it might make sense to rest him. Stay tuned for updates. No practice on Wednesday. *Update* He missed practice all week and is listed as questionable, though it seems unlikely he’ll play.

Miles Boykin: If Brown is forced to miss another game, Boykin moves into the streaming conversation. He’s only seen seven targets on the season but two of them have been for touchdowns, so it’s clear that he and Jackson do well in the red zone. Boykin played 43 snaps last week and saw three targets from Jackson with the run-heavy gameplan against the Bengals, though this week will force them to throw quite a bit more. It’s not saying much, but Boykin did lead the Ravens receivers in air yards last week with his increased role. He also plays on the side of the field that Tre Flowers does, which has been a gift for opposing wide receivers. The former fifth-rounder has now allowed a 105.5 QB Rating in his coverage over the last two years over a span of 113 targets. Boykin is far from a sure thing, but I’d say he’s probably the best bet for a touchdown among the Ravens receivers. He’s just an emergency WR5-type option who’ll need to score in order to not let you down.

Tyler Lockett: Thank goodness for Wilson’s insane accuracy, because Lockett has now seen five or less targets in 4-of-6 games. In all seriousness, if he played with virtually any other quarterback, we wouldn’t be considering him a top-40 wide receiver for the rest of the season with that low of volume. While researching this game, you’d think it’d be a great thing that his team is implied for nearly 27 points, right? Well, based on a curve, his production has actually declined as the team’s total goes up. It’s one of the more oddball things I’ve come across. The Ravens are using Marlon Humphrey to shadow opposing No. 1 receivers no matter where they are on the field, and they used him to shut down Tyler Boyd last week. Do they have him shadow Lockett this week? It would make sense. Humphrey has allowed just a 48.3 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year and has allowed just one touchdown on 29 targets in coverage. He’s not the reason this team is allowing a lot of yardage. Knowing Lockett struggles to see a lot of targets and that he’s likely going to see Humphrey in coverage, it’s a good week to dial back expectations for Lockett, though he must remain in the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 column with the way Wilson is slinging the ball.

D.K. Metcalf: After seeing at least six targets in each of the first three games, Metcalf has seen just 4-3-5 over the last three games, though it’s important to note he’s had just one game this year where he’s finished less than 67 yards and/or a touchdown. As odd as it sounds, he still leads the team in air yards over Lockett, though that gap has shrunk to the point it’s almost non-existent. With Will Dissly out for the year, Metcalf may take on a bigger role in the end zone as the biggest target on the team. If Marlon Humphrey shadows Lockett, like many expect, Metcalf would see a lot of newly acquired Marcus Peters or Brandon Carr in coverage. Carr is an established veteran who’s solid in coverage, though he doesn’t have the speed to keep up with Metcalf over the top. Peters has been repeatedly burned over the top this year and doesn’t do well in shadow coverage. The Seahawks should be able to get the matchups they want with Metcalf if Lockett gets shadowed, so consider him a high-end WR4 who could lead the team in receiving.

Jaron Brown: After scoring two touchdowns last week, many will be asking about Brown and if he’s a viable option for those with bye week issues. Honestly, it might not be the worst idea. If Marlon Humphrey shadows Lockett and Brandon Carr takes D.K. Metcalf, that could leave Brown with third-string cornerback Maurice Canady or newly acquired Marcus Peters in a matchup the Seahawks are projected for close to four touchdowns. There are so many moving parts on the Ravens defense and Seahawks offense, it’s difficult to say anything with any certainty, which makes Brown a hail mary WR5 option.

TEs
Mark Andrews: For those who were concerned about his snap counts at the start of the year, hopefully he’s assured you not to be worried by this point. His 158 pass routes – what actually matters – rank eighth among tight ends, while his 2.59 yards per route run ranks as the best in the league. He’s seen at least seven targets in every game and has finished with at least 9.5 PPR points in 5-of-6 games despite Jackson’s struggles as of late. Even better, the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per target to tight ends. It’s not just touchdowns (they’ve allowed three of them), either. They’ve allowed 34 receptions (6th-most), a 73.9 percent catch-rate (7th-highest), and 8.80 yards per target (5th-highest) to the position. With Marquise Brown potentially out and a game with an over/under of 50.5 points, you’re going to want Andrews in your lineup as an elite TE1 who’s also in play for cash.

Luke Willson: There were times in the past where Willson needed to step in and fill the starting spot with the Seahawks, and fortunately, he has chemistry with Wilson. From 2013-2017 with the team, he saw 137 targets and turned them into 1,129 yards and 11 touchdowns. With Will Dissly out for the season, he’ll be the starting tight end for the Seahawks this week. The Ravens haven’t seen much volume from tight ends this year, as they’ve faced just 32 targets over six games. When targeted, though, they allow production. They’ve allowed 10.0 yards per target to tight ends, which is what you typically want to look at because touchdowns can be fickle. The yards per target they’ve allowed ranks as the fourth-highest number in the league, and by comparison, just 0.70 yards per target less than the Cardinals. The tight end position in the Seahawks offense has netted 38 targets, or 6.3 per game, which isn’t bad with Wilson completing such a high percentage. As odd as it sounds, Willson is in the mid-to-high-end TE2 radar this week.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

Total: 38.0
Line: CHI by 3.0

QBs
Teddy Bridgewater: You were warned about trusting a performance against the Bucs as a benchmark for Bridgewater. He’s still the check-down king to this point, averaging just 6.0 air yards per pass, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league, and that’s despite taking 2.78 seconds to throw, which ranks as the 15th highest mark in the league. The Bears will be coming off their bye and an ugly loss to the Raiders where their defense was the reason. They played extremely poorly, particularly against the run, though they likely come back with a vengeance at home against the Saints. Not one single quarterback has finished top-15 against the Bears this season and there were just three quarterbacks who finished as top-12 options against them last year. Bridgewater has been pressured just 33 percent of the time, and outside the Week 5 performance against the Raiders, the Bears defense pass-rush was escalating as the weeks went on, and they’ve still generated a 8.2 percent sack-rate this year, which is among the best in football. The loss of defensive tackle Akiem Hicks is really big, though that affects the run defense a bit more. Against the Bears, you’re not playing Bridgewater unless it’s a dire emergency, especially when you find out their implied team total is just 17.5 points.

Mitch Trubisky: He should be back from his injury this week, though he’s likely to have to play with a brace of some sort. The Saints have not been a matchup to target over the last three weeks, as they’ve allowed just 196.7 passing yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game to the combination of Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, and Gardner Minshew. What changed from the first three weeks when they allowed three top-eight performances? They got back their two starting interior defensive linemen is what happened. They will have a loss this week, though, as their nickel cornerback P.J. Williams has been suspended for two games. The area there’d usually be hope for Trubisky was on the ground, as the Saints have allowed four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, the most in the NFL. The problem is that Trubisky may not be suited to take big hits coming off the injury, and let’s not pretend his passing will carry him through, as he’s been wildly inconsistent this year. This game has one of the lowest totals on the slate and for good reason. He’s nothing more than an emergency low-end QB2.

RBs
Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: Not only did Kamara come into the Week 6 game with an ankle injury that he suffered in practice last Thursday, but according to Sean Payton, he also suffered a knee injury during the game against the Jaguars. Then, on Monday, it was reported that Kamara’s sprain is of the high-ankle variety, though he “hopes” to play this week. If it’s of the high-ankle variety, he’s not playing. We’ll assume it’s Murray as the lead back against the Bears this week, and though it’s not a good matchup, it does help that the Bears will be without stud defensive tackle Akiem Hicks, who was placed on IR this week. With Hicks on the field, the Bears allowed just 2.78 yards per carry. With him off the field, they’ve allowed 3.78 yards per carry. While it’s not a high mark, it’s much more manageable, especially when a running back should be in line for 18-plus touches. Hicks was hurt (again) at the start of the Week 5 game against the Raiders and Josh Jacobs went off for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Just two running backs rushed for more than 88 yards all of last year while they allowed just four rushing touchdowns to all running backs. You have to upgrade Murray based on this information. If Kamara is out – like we’re expecting – Murray should be in lineups as a low-end RB2 with the volume he’ll get. *Update* Kamara has been ruled out for this game.

David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen: We’d been watching Montgomery’s role grow into what many had hoped heading into their Week 5 game against the Raiders, but after his 12-touch performance that netted just 36 total yards, many are concerned. Knowing there were just 15 carries to go around, the fact that he got 11 of them was a good thing. The offensive line took a blow this week, as guard Kyle Long was placed on IR. He’d been brutal this year, though Ted Larsen may not be much better. The Saints got Sheldon Rankins back on the defensive line in Week 4 and got David Onyemata back in Week 2. With these two back in the fold, the Saints are not a team you can run the ball against. Over the last three weeks with both of them on the field, the Saints have allowed just 171 yards on 57 carries (3.00 yards per carry) to the combination of Ezekiel Elliott, Ronald Jones/Peyton Barber, and Leonard Fournette. This is very reminiscent of last year when they allowed just 3.22 yards per carry and seven touchdowns, finishing as the fourth-best defense against fantasy backs. Not many realize they haven’t allowed a single running back to top 83 yards on the ground against them since way back in 2017. Knowing Montgomery hasn’t topped three targets in a game, he’s likely a touchdown-or-bust option in this game. He should be placed in the high-end RB3 conversation. Many criticize Cohen about his lack of role in the run-game, but his usage in the passing-game is worth enough to be considered for a flex option. With all things equal in every offense (they aren’t, but for this they have to be), Cohen ranks 33rd among running backs in fantasy opportunity. The Saints haven’t been a particularly giving defense when it comes to fantasy points through the air, but the Bears will have a better chance doing that than moving the ball on the ground. Cohen belongs in the middling RB3 conversation.

WRs
Michael Thomas: One of the craziest things in 2019 is the fact that Thomas went from Drew Brees to Teddy Bridgewater and hasn’t missed a beat. He’s the No. 2 receiver in fantasy football and has now seen at least 12 targets in 4-of-6 games. Thomas has also caught a ridiculous 79.1 percent of the passes thrown his way, finishing with at least eight receptions in 5-of-6 games this year. His worst PPR performance of the year was 7/54/1. That’s flat-out stupid. So, when you see the Bears on the schedule and get worried, you really can’t be when you consider what he’s done this year. The Bears aren’t the shutdown unit they were last year, as they’ve already allowed four wide receivers to post 17.8 or more PPR points against them. Every one of them was a perimeter receiver, so it’s not like they’ve allowed a bunch of short targets to some slot receiver. They aren’t a defense who allows much after the catch, but this match suits Thomas fairly well. Receivers have caught 70.5 percent of their targets against the Bears, which ranks as the seventh-highest mark in football. Thomas needs to be in fantasy lineups as a WR1 every week, and knowing Kamara is likely out, we should see another double-digit target game out of him.

Ted Ginn: While Thomas hasn’t missed a step with Bridgewater under center, Ginn cannot say the same. He’s seen five or six targets in 3-of-4 games but he’s finished with just 15-36 yards in those contests, so he’s clearly a touchdown-or-bust option, which means you’re not playing him against the Bears, who’ve allowed just three wide receiver touchdowns all year.

Allen Robinson: If not for Robinson, I don’t want to know just how much worse the Bears quarterbacks would’ve looked to this point. He’s routinely made highlight catches and been stable in fantasy despite the issues with the offense. He’s yet to see less than seven targets and the only time he finished with less than 12.0 PPR points was against Chris Harris Jr, who’s been shutting down a lot of wide receivers. Robinson will have a tough task this week when he goes up against Marshon Lattimore. Over the last three weeks, he’s been a lights out cornerback, shutting down Amari Cooper (5/48/0), Mike Evans (0/0/0), and D.J. Chark (3/43/0) in coverage. Many will talk about Deandre Hopkins in Week 1 having a big game, but if you go back and watch that game, Lattimore was rather tight in coverage most of the time. Robinson is good enough where you have to start him in any matchup, but he’s in the WR3 group this week and shouldn’t be considered in cash lineups.

Taylor Gabriel: After missing two games with his concussion, Gabriel is due back with the team this week. He’s going to be matched up with Eli Apple for much of the contest, who’s been a bit of an up-and-down throughout his career, though he’s played well in 2019. He’s allowed just 9-of-17 passing in his coverage this year, though the receptions he has allowed have gone for an average of 19.9 yards. He’s allowed at least one 20-plus yard reception in 4-of-6 games, so it’s possible Gabriel gets behind him. The problem is that he’s impossible to trust as anything more than a hail mary WR5 with the way Trubisky has played this year. Yes, Gabriel finished with 75 yards and three touchdowns the last time he played, but against the Redskins, it’s a bit less impressive. In a game with a low total, you can likely do better.

Anthony Miller: Many have moved on from Miller, and rightfully so, as he’s seen just 15 targets through five games. He did see a season-high seven targets against the Raiders, but that was with Gabriel out of the lineup and with Chase Daniel under center. No matter who is under center, they should be looking Miller’s way early and often in this game. The Saints have been trotting out P.J. Williams to cover slot receivers and it hasn’t worked all that well, but he was suspended for two games. That means we’ll see Patrick Robinson fill in for him. He was a high-priced free agent they signed prior to the 2018 season, who was then hurt and forced to miss the whole season. When he returned for camp, reports were horrible, and the Saints agreed by continually putting Williams out there despite his struggles. Robinson has been extremely hit-or-miss throughout his 10 years in the league, allowing anywhere from a 67.9 to a 111.7 QB Rating. The fact that Williams was playing over him says a lot. Miller isn’t someone you can trust with a high floor replacement for bye weeks, but he does have what might be the best matchup among Bears pass-catchers.

TEs
Jared Cook: He’s still yet to record more than 41 yards in a single game but he’s scored touchdowns in each of the last two games. If you can rid yourself of Cook, now is the time to do it. He’s never caught more than six touchdowns in his 11-year career, so why assume it starts now with Bridgewater under center? The Bears have yet to allow a top-10 performance to a tight end, and that includes Darren Waller, who was held to just four catches for 39 yards in their Week 5 matchup. Going back to the start of last year, the Bears have allowed just one tight end (George Kittle) more than 49 yards, so feel free to keep Cook on the bench this week if you have another viable option. He’s a touchdown-or-bust TE2 option on a team who’s projected for 17.5 points. *Update* Cook has been ruled out for this game with an ankle injury. 

Trey Burton: We were watching Burton’s role grow each week this season, as he started out playing just 43.3 percent of snaps in Week 2, was then around 60 percent the next two weeks, and then played a season-high 75 percent of snaps in Week 5 before the bye week. He should be locked in as a full-time tight end going forward. He’s seen 3-4 targets in each of the four games he’s played, so he’s someone who can be considered in a great matchup. The issue’s that the Saints ranked as the eighth-best team against tight ends last year and have ranked as the eighth-best team against tight ends this year. Will Dissly was able to post a top-six performance against them, but he saw seven targets from the quarterback who’s the current MVP. Burton is looking at potentially 3-6 targets from Trubisky or Daniel. While I do believe there are going to be usable weeks out of Burton in the coming weeks, this one is tough to see.