This list is intended to reflect which players (based on roster changes during the offseason) have seen their fantasy stock trend up/down. After much research and careful deliberation, the following players are those I have deemed as good fits for these respective categories.
Trending Up
Has anybody been less lucky than Robinson in his pro career? Here is a list of QBs he’s played with since entering the league: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton and rookie Justin Fields. Yikes.
Despite the adversity, he’s managed three 1,000-yard campaigns (PPR WR6 in 2015, WR8 in 2019 and WR9 in 2020). If he can accomplish this with the list of passers mentioned above, imagine what he can do with the best QB he’s ever played with in his pro (or college) career.
He now joins a Matthew Stafford-led Rams team where, for once, he won’t be considered his team’s primary receiving threat. Instead, he’ll line up opposite Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp, taking over Odell Beckham‘s role, which netted the former Giant seven TDs in 12 games as a Ram in 2021.
Last season likely left a bad taste in your mouth from Robinson since he finished as WR83 despite an average draft position of WR11 (via FantasyPros). You’re not alone.
However, the good thing about hitting rock bottom is that there’s nowhere to go but up.
Robinson is guaranteed to see higher-quality looks while drawing less aggressive attention from opposing defenses. He’s most certainly trending upward.
Jerry Jeudy & Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
The Broncos have struggled to land a franchise QB since Peyton Manning retired. Luckily, they got their man this offseason, trading for perennial Pro-Bowler Russell Wilson. Unfortunately, the perception seems to be that Wilson fell off last season. This could be attributed to recency bias and the fact he missed games due to injury for the first time in his pro-career (he started 144 consecutive regular-season games prior).
Think about how Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton will benefit, going from Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Teddy Bridgewater to Wilson. The latter has never finished a season with less than a 92.6 passer rating or a 61.3% completion percentage. This one does not require too much analysis.
Wilson’s top two targets in Seattle (Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf) averaged a combined 15.2 and 14.4 PPR PPG (respectively) over their last three seasons. Considering both Jeudy and Sutton averaged less than 9.5 PPG in 2022, their stock should be up by default.
Carr has been arguably the biggest winner of the 2022 offseason so far. Now that the Raiders landed Davante Adams, it’s no exaggeration to say Carr will enter 2022 with the most loaded receiving core he’s ever had. The addition of Adams is especially encouraging for Carr’s fantasy value. Not only is Adams one of the premier receiving threats in the NFL (averaging 11.5 TDs per season since 2016), but he also happens to have chemistry with his new QB already. The dynamic duo of Carr and Adams connected with a whopping 24 TD receptions in their final season together at Fresno State.
Adams will join an offense that already featured two-time 1,000-yard TE Darren Waller and newly established slot threat Hunter Renfrow (PPR WR10 in 2021). So it stands to reason the man responsible for getting the ball to these dynamic weapons would benefit the most.
He now has Tyreek Hill. Need I say more? Adding Hill to your arsenal would benefit any QB, but the Dolphins didn’t stop there. They also managed to nab speedster Cedrick Wilson and receiving back Chase Edmonds this offseason. Last but not least, the often-injured but blazing-fast Raheem Mostert will be joining his former coach Mike McDaniel in South Beach.
Add those names to a receiving corps that already featured second-year WR Jaylen Waddle (4.37-second 40-yard dash), and the Dolphins, all of a sudden, have the fastest offense in the NFL.
Nobody benefits more than Tagovailoa, who will accrue all their yards after catch (YAC) as passing yards. Considering he finished last season as QB24 on a PPG basis, his stock is undoubtedly rising.
Think about it — a good route-runner with a top-eight fantasy finish under his belt is receiving a massive QB upgrade while facing little competition for targets outside of Travis Kelce. Love him or hate him, JuJu’s current ADP of WR32 is criminal.
Trending Down
So much for that, eh? Carter showed flashes of his fantasy potential in 2021, finishing with 10+ PPR points in seven of his 14 games. Some of us had hoped he might be in line for an increased role down the road. Unfortunately for him, the Jets traded up to select Iowa RB Breece Hall in the second round of this year’s draft.
I won’t beat around the bush here. Hall is a three-down back and a complete player (3,600+ scrimmage yards and 46 total TDs in his last 24 games at Iowa). I expect he finds himself in a featured role sooner rather than later.
This means Carter will likely be working with a smaller workload, if not phased out entirely. He went from being an RB2 with upside to little more than a handcuff.
Despite the trending down designation, Hill should finish near the top of his position. I still view him as a WR1, but making the transition from Patrick Mahomes to Tua would be difficult for anyone. Spoiler alert: Tua does not have the same arm power as Mahomes. Not many human beings do.
A drop-off in production is inevitable. Just how steep is yet to be determined.
Maybe Hill is used more creatively, similarly to how Mike McDaniel used Deebo Samuel last year. Maybe Tua makes a giant leap. That is anyone’s guess. Either way you slice it, losing Mahomes as your QB will negatively affect you one way or another. In my own opinion, Hill goes from an unquestioned top-three WR to somewhere in the WR7-10 range.
D.K. Metcalf & Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
These two are currently working with Geno Smith/Drew Lock as their QBs. The Seahawks landed Kenneth Walker in the draft and got Adrian Peterson-like production out of Rashaad Penny at the end of 2021. Something tells me they’re committing to the run game this year, which means less volume for Metcalf and Lockett.
Going from a perennial Pro Bowl QB to two who have never been more than backup-caliber means fewer quality targets. Unless Seattle makes a move for a half-decent QB, it will be hard to rank either WR inside the top-20 this season.
Woods is in a bad spot for fantasy, plain and simple. It’s no secret the Titans are a run-first team. As any team with Derrick Henry should be. AJ Brown was a good fit in Tennessee because his explosive skill set allowed him to make the most of the few opportunities he received (career average of 17.2 PPG on a measly 6.8 targets per game).
Even if he wasn’t coming off a torn ACL (which he is), Woods simply does not offer these same skills.
Let’s be clear. Woods is a great receiver, but he is best suited for a possession-type role. Considering Tannehill is coming off a campaign where he averaged just 219.6 pass YPG, it isn’t easy to imagine Woods seeing the volume necessary to produce consistent fantasy numbers.
Rookie Treylon Burks will now join the fold, so there is even an argument to be made that Woods ends up as the second option in the pass game. Look what happened to Julio Jones in that same role.
As far as Woods’ fantasy value is concerned, there is a disaster on the horizon in 2022.
Speaking of Titans trending down…it was a pretty bad weekend to be Ryan Tannehill. He was forced to watch as his team traded his top weapon in AJ Brown and drafted QB Malik Willis. Sure, he will receive a shiny new toy with Burks and a reliable vet in Woods. Yet, it’s hard to imagine two players he has no established rapport with remedying the fact Tannehill’s passer rating has been trending down for the past two seasons.
In 2021, he finished with his lowest single-season rating (89.6) since 2015.
It’s unlikely Willis gets the nod ahead of him this season, but Tannehill’s margin for error decreased significantly if nothing else. As someone who entered 2021 with an ADP of QB11, it’s safe to say Tannehill is trending in the wrong direction.
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