Skip to main content
PREMIUM

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 1 (2022 Fantasy Football)

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 1 (2022 Fantasy Football)

I must share a major disclaimer before jumping into to this: Pass Coverage performance as a whole, regardless of what metric you use, is by far the most volatile of datapoints. Hence, ANY model built to predict outcomes based on coverage ability (using the past to predict the future) must be taken with a hefty appetite for variance. This is said in the most macro of senses. That is, compared to other advanced statistics coverage data tend to be more elastic. As Pro Football Focus said in a relevant study in 2019:

“Coverage players who grade well one year are more likely to grade well the next year than those who do not, but the uncertainty is substantial. Second, and likely more importantly, your defensive success is largely a function of the offenses (and, more specifically, the quarterbacks) your team faces – something it has little control over even when sound personnel and scheme decisions are made.”

Essentially, how well a player is at covering a receiver is NOT as predictive game-over-game or even season-over-season, as other player performance metrics like pass pressure rate, broken/missed tackle rate, etc. Not to mention, figuring out WHO will cover a player, and how often is riddled with subjectivity. With that said, despite the fact it seems I’m telling you to stop reading, there is still some insight to glean from a properly calibrated model, WHEN YOU CONSIDER IT AT THE MARGIN (i.e., think when you choose a starter and have a 50/50 decision between WRs). Each week, FantasyPros plans to unveil our WR vs CB piece, utilizing our friends at PFF’s database, while applying our own model to determine marginal advantages for WRs in a given week for fantasy football, leveraging what we know to be predictive triggers between players.

 

Subscribe to Continue

Unlock powerful tools, features, and content for all sports. Dominate for as low as $3.99/mo.

More Articles

2024 NFL Draft Risers & Fallers

2024 NFL Draft Risers & Fallers

fp-headshot by Mike Fanelli | 3 min read
Dynasty Draft & Trade Advice: Reviewing 2023 NFL Draft Class

Dynasty Draft & Trade Advice: Reviewing 2023 NFL Draft Class

fp-headshot by Marco Enriquez | 6 min read
3 Overvalued Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks to Avoid (2024 Fantasy Football)

3 Overvalued Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks to Avoid (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by Jordan Woodson | 3 min read
12 Best Ball Draft Stacks to Target by Pick (2024 Fantasy Football)

12 Best Ball Draft Stacks to Target by Pick (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 4 min read
Top 5 IDP Linebackers Under 25 (2024 Fantasy Football)

Top 5 IDP Linebackers Under 25 (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by Adam Murfet | 4 min read
Fantasy Football Rumors & News: Kirk Cousins, Tyler Boyd, Nelson Agholor (2024)

Fantasy Football Rumors & News: Kirk Cousins, Tyler Boyd, Nelson Agholor (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 1 min read
Fantasy Football Rumors & News: Mike Evans, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson (2024)

Fantasy Football Rumors & News: Mike Evans, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 1 min read
2024 NFL Free Agents: Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Darnold (2024)

2024 NFL Free Agents: Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Darnold (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Isiah Pacheco, Jaylen Warren (2024)

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Isiah Pacheco, Jaylen Warren (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze (2024)

Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 4 min read

About Author

Current Article

7 min read

2024 NFL Draft Risers & Fallers

Next Up - 2024 NFL Draft Risers & Fallers

Next Article   arrow-image