The 2023 season has only just ended, but before you know it we’ll be diving into draft prospects and figuring out the hypothetical ways to fix everything wrong with every team that didn’t win the Super Bowl. Before all of that though, let’s take a moment to reflect upon the 2023 season and bask in the things that the Expert Consensus Rankings got correct.

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10 Players the Experts Got Right

Bryce Young (QB – CAR)

Heading into the season it seemed like Bryce Young had been set up for failure ever since the Carolina Panthers mortgaged the house to move up to the 1.01 pick. In doing so they gave away the only good wide receiver the Panthers had, DJ Moore, and replaced him with Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo and DJ Chark. Thielen started the season strong, but eventually felt his age in the second half. Young struggled to get on the same page with his other receivers as Frank Reich’s hodgepodge offense put Young in a whirlwind of inefficiency behind an offensive line that heavily regressed in 2023. Young was ranked as the QB25 in expert consensus ranking (ECR) and finished as the QB23 in total points, which sounds a lot better than the QB39 ranking he finished with in total points.

Bryce Young played poorly in Week 17

but these three straight drops by DJ Chark, on three consecutive dropbacks, outlines again how this is a losing situation

from top to bottom ❌

1st & 10. 3rd & 7. 4th & 7. All 30-yard gains. pic.twitter.com/WfnzDWYP8T

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) January 1, 2024

Desmond Ridder (QB – ATL)

The Falcons opted to not pursue Lamar Jackson this offseason with owner Arthur Blank coming out at the earliest possible opportunity to tell the world they weren’t interested, a year after pursuing Deshaun Watson. Instead, the Falcons opted to draft Bijan Robinson and use Desmond Ridder, who ECR ranked as the QB31 after seeing three games from him in 2022 where he totaled 22.9 points. Ridder would go on to be benched twice during the season and averaged 11.8 points per game as he and Arthur Smith ruined many people’s expectations for this offense, eventually seeing Ridder end the season as QB22 in total points, but QB30 in points per game.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

Enough disappointment, let’s take a brief moment to examine something that went as perfectly as planned! Christian McCaffrey was the consensus RB1 heading into this season, with Austin Ekeler poised for some regression and Jonathan Taylor‘s shine had come off. The only knocks against McCaffrey were his age (27 years old) and his historical injury issues. McCaffrey showed these worries were much ado about nothing as he totaled 2023 yards, including 315 more rushing yards than the next closest back had. McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in both total points and points per game and looks set to be the RB1 in 2024 drafts, possibly even the 1.01.

With Christian McCaffrey resting in Week 18, he will finish the year with 2,023 yards from scrimmage.

He is the first player in NFL history to have as many yards as the season.

Next closest:
Gerald Riggs (1,986 in 1985)
Earl Campbell (1,981 in 1980). #49ers

— Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) January 2, 2024

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)

With the Seahawks bringing in promising rookie, Zach Charbonnet, the ECR saw Walker’s value drop down to RB17, expecting him to lose just enough of the high-value touches that he wouldn’t be able to break the top 12, something that seemed possible at the back end of 2022. Walker played well and if anything separated from Charbonnet, who never really showed the promise the draft community saw in him, but it wasn’t enough for Walker, who finished as the RB19 in total points and RB20 in points per game.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI)

The Eagles’ backfield was one of the greatest mysteries of the offseason, with Rashaad Penny expected to add meaningful contributions for much of the drafting season, only to see his contributions add up to six touches for 22 yards. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift was viewed with skepticism because of his chances of catching the ball in this dual-threat offense. Gainwell was hyped somewhat by members of the Philadelphia press, but the ECR was unperturbed and left Gainwell as the RB46, very close to his overall finish as the RB49 in total points and RB58 in points per game.

DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)

The Seahawks had one of the most exciting receiver rooms entering this year. There was plenty of debate about whether Jaxon Smith-Njigba could break out with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett playing ahead of him, and if Smith-Njigba would even see the field with the Seahawks’ propensity for playing two wide-receiver sets. Ultimately Smith-Njigba didn’t break out in a meaningful way, but he did see the field for an average of 64% of snaps, taking away enough work from both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, capping both their upsides as the offense regressed. Metcalf was ranked as the WR16 by the ECR, and perhaps it’s generous to say it was correct, with his finishing as the WR19 in total points and WR20 in points per game, but WR16 feels pretty close to the actual results.

Joey Porter Jr. aligned across from DK Metcalf on 26 of 32 routes (81.3%), his 6th shadow coverage game since Week 7 (T-most in NFL).

Metcalf caught 3 of 6 targets for 86 yards, the first WR to gain over 40 yards vs Porter in coverage this season.#PITvsSEA | #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/DTIMSOqtoF

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 1, 2024

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

It wasn’t easy to predict what this Broncos’ offense would look like in 2023 with Sean Payton trying to mold Russell Wilson into his preferred version of the quarterback. With Marvin Mims a popular sleeper pick in the offseason and the vibes around Jerry Jeudy far from immaculate, Courtland Sutton was ranked as the WR38, in an area of drafts that feels like receiver purgatory. Sutton looked like he might be able to outplay that when he went on a streak of scoring touchdowns in two-thirds of his appearances, but ultimately the yardage wasn’t there, averaging only 51 per game. Sutton ended up at exactly WR38 in points per game and just above that at WR35 in total points.

Gabe Davis (WR – BUF)

The Gabe Davis experience in 2024 was almost exactly as expected, with four top-12 weekly finishes, none of which occurred within consecutive weeks when you might have felt brave enough to start him, and Davis also had four games where he was held without a catch. The ECR ranked Davis as the WR39, and Davis finished 40th in total points among wide receivers and 51st in points per game. It’s long overdue that Buffalo added some help at the receiver position alongside Stefon Diggs.

Great angle of the Gabe Davis Touchdown!#BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/488WCCAkRk

— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) December 26, 2023

TJ Hockenson (TE – MIN)

When TJ Hockenson was traded away from the Lions in 2022 it felt like he was finally unleashed, playing alongside Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins in Minnesota. Heading into the year, the ECR seemed content to include Hockenson just behind the true elite tier of Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, but ahead of the question mark tier that included George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller. Hockenson dealt with questionable quarterback play after Cousins’ injury, but before that, he was averaging 14.85 points per game. This would have been equivalent to the TE1 overall, so even though Hockenson ended as the TE3 in total points and TE2 in points per game, it was a close-run affair.

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)

There were few rookies as divisive as Dalton Kincaid heading into the 2023 season, with everyone assured of his pass-catching talent, but many were divided on how much it would matter behind Dawson Knox and competing for targets as a rookie. Nobody expected rookie tight ends to perform as well as they did in 2023, and Kincaid did flash, but only when Dawson Knox was on injured reserve. He averaged 14.3 points in those games, but sadly when Knox played, Kincaid saw a massive drop in usage and finished as the TE12 in total points and the TE14 in points per game, exactly where the ECR had him ranked coming into the season.