New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-6.0) Over/Under: 48.0
This game should be interesting, as it’s two teams that are struggling, though one is 2-0 and the other is 0-2. The Panthers are obviously the team who is 2-0, but I’d argue that their team is in trouble right now. Not only did they just lose Greg Olsen for at least 6-8 weeks, but Cam Newton doesn’t look very good throwing the ball, which is what he was able to do in their Super Bowl run. They have scored just 32 total points against the 49ers and the Bills, two of the teams in the running for the No. 1 overall pick. Meanwhile, the Saints have lost to the Vikings and the Patriots. Not quite the same, eh? The downside for the Saints is that they may be without their left and right tackle, as they were in Week 2 against the Patriots, while the Panthers are near full strength on the defense.
QBs: This is a team that knows Drew Brees pretty well, as they play against him twice a year. In their two matchups last year, Brees totaled 465 yards and four touchdowns in the first meeting and 285 yards and two touchdowns in their second one. Things have changed since then and Brees has started out somewhat slow by his standards, but he’s still a QB1 in this matchup. The Panthers defend the run much better than they do the pass, despite the fact that they haven’t allowed a touchdown pass this year. Cam Newton isn’t trustworthy right now, as he’s completed just 34 of 57 attempts for 399 yards against the secondaries of the 49ers and Bills. While the Saints aren’t any better, the loss of Greg Olsen is something that Newton has never experienced before, and it’s likely to have a big effect. Don’t be shocked if Newton runs a lot more than he has been over the last year and a half, simply because he doesn’t like what he’s looking at in the passing game. He was a bit Jeckyl and Hyde against them last year, totaling 322 yards and three total touchdowns in the first meeting and then just 192 yards and one touchdown in the second contest. Their implied team total is 27.5 points as of the time I’m writing this, so I’m a bit more optimistic than I typically would be. Consider him a great tournament option in DFS this week and a low-end QB1 in season-long leagues due to his expected rushing output.
RBs: The mess didn’t get any clearer last week for the Saints, as Mark Ingram played 36 snaps, Alvin Kamara played 17 snaps, and Adrian Peterson played 15 snaps. Game-flow will dictate how these running backs will be used and this game should be a much closer contest than the other two. The Panthers haven’t been able to rack up points against subpar defenses, so it’s likely that the Saints will remain in this game, if not lead at points of the game. Because of that, it’s a game to avoid if possible, as Peterson isn’t likely to do well against the Panthers front-seven that allowed less than 3.8 yards per carry last year and are coming off a game where they held LeSean McCoy to just nine yards on 12 carries. Peterson is just an RB4/5 for this game who can salvage his stat line with a touchdown, but don’t bank on it. Ingram will always be involved, but it seems that they don’t want to trust him with any more than 35-50 percent of the snaps, which will limit his potential. Considering how often the Saints score Ingram will always be in the RB3 range, but it’s fair to avoid him in DFS until we narrow down this timeshare as he’s limited on both ends (touchdowns with Peterson, receiving with Kamara) of production. Kamara can be considered as a RB4 in PPR formats going forward and this matchup is no different, as the Panthers have allowed nine running backs to rack up at least 32 receiving yards in their last 12 games. Jonathan Stewart is the Panthers early-down running back, as he leads the team in carries with 33 of them, while Christian McCaffrey has totaled 21 in the two games played. Most don’t realize the Saints have allowed just two running backs to go over 85 yards on the ground since the start of 2016. Devonta Freeman (did it twice) and Dalvin Cook were the only two to do it. Stewart doesn’t quite fit in with that crowd, but he doesn’t really need to because the Saints have allowed 19 rushing touchdowns in that same span. Stewart is a touchdown-likely RB2/RB3 this week. McCaffrey would benefit from negative game-script, but Vegas doesn’t appear to think that’s the case. Still, without Olsen, he’s likely to get a bump in targets and should be considered a rock-solid RB2 in PPR formats and a high-end RB3 in standard leagues.
WRs: The Saints will be without Willie Snead for one more week, which should help get this offense get back on track. Michael Thomas has had two brutal matchups to start the year, and while this one isn’t great against James Bradberry, it’s the best matchup he’s had this year. Bradberry did some shadowing last year, though it wasn’t often, but I suspect he’ll follow Thomas on the perimeter this week. I’d still trot Thomas out there as a WR1 who should score. Ted Ginn has been a miss so far in fantasy leagues, as he’s seen 11 targets, but turned them into just seven catches for 77 yards. Taking what he was thought as, Brandon Coleman now has 95 yards and a touchdown in his ‘big-slot’ role. This would be considered a revenge game for Ginn, but it also happens to be a great matchup for him. The Panthers were destroyed by quick wide receivers last year, allowing big games to guys like Torrey Smith, J.J. Nelson, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, and DeSean Jackson. Ginn is always going to give you a low floor, but his ceiling makes him worth WR3/4 consideration. Coleman is just a WR5, but one who will have a better opportunity to score than most in his territory. Kelvin Benjamin has always been a target monster, but he’ll see increased usage now with Olsen out. He should be considered a solid WR2 in this matchup, as the Saints are already lacking talent, but may be without first-round rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore who is going through the concussion protocol. Don’t forget they are already without Delvin Breaux, their top cornerback. Devin Funchess deserves consideration as a WR4 this week, as he is an every-down player and one that closely resembles the frame of Greg Olsen at 6-4, 232 pounds. He stepped up last week and played the most snaps at wide receiver, totaling four catches for 68 yards on seven targets in Olsen’s absence. If Newton can put together a solid string of passes, both Benjamin and Funchess can produce against the Saints. Curtis Samuel and Russell Shepard are fighting for snaps in the slot role, and though Shepard has it right now, it’s hard to trust either of them. Samuel should have the higher ceiling, but playing just 12 snaps a game won’t get you much.
TEs: In three games without Willie Snead on the field during his tenure with the Saints, Coby Fleener has scored a touchdown in each of those games. In the two games against the Panthers last year, Fleener was able to total 91 yards in the two games combined, but did score in each of the games. Since the start of 2016, the Panthers have allowed 11 tight ends to reach double-digit scoring in PPR leagues, with five of them able to top 14.5 points. Fleener has been a big part of the offense this year by necessity, and should continue his TE1 pace in this contest. Ed Dickson is the tight end who’ll step in for Olsen, but that doesn’t mean he’ll see the targets Olsen did. The Saints were actually really good at stopping tight ends last year as they allowed five touchdowns on the season, but they have allowed two touchdowns in two games in 2017. The catch is that they were Rob Gronkowski and Kyle Rudolph, two of the best tight ends in the game. Stay away from Dickson this week.
Prediction: Panthers 23, Saints 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (No Line ATM)
This is going to be a difficult game to write up, as we don’t know whether or not Sam Bradford will suit up. As of the time I’m writing this, there is also no Vegas line on the game because of this, though I suspect it’ll open somewhere around Vikings -4.5. But the reason everyone is so apprehensive is because Case Keenum (Bradford’s backup) stunk up the joint at Heinz Field last week, throwing for just 167 yards on 37 pass attempts. Meanwhile, the Bucs are healthy and looked sharp in their dress rehearsal game against the Bears. There are a lot of variables, but we’ll do our best to review all players involved.
QBs: Jameis Winston wasn’t asked to do much against the Bears last week, but his stat line may have been a lot bigger if he and DeSean Jackson would have been in-sync. Jackson stepped out on a would-be touchdown and then Winston overthrew him by one yard on what would have been a long touchdown. That chemistry will come over time, but this is a week where Winston is more of a QB2 than the QB1 you drafted him as. The Vikings have had to go against Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger in the first two weeks and held them to average just 16.5 fantasy points. Dating back to last year, the Vikings have allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than 291 yards and that was Aaron Rodgers. On the road, you may have a better solution this week. Let’s be honest, you won’t be able to trust Bradford if he does play and you aren’t playing Case Keenum. The Bucs have allowed just seven passing touchdowns while intercepting 12 passes in their last eight games, anyway.
RBs: It’s hard to judge Jacquizz Rodgers‘ performance in what was such a blowout against the Bears, but if there’s one thing for sure, the Bucs do not plan on Charles Sims eating into his carries. The Vikings are one of the better run stopping teams in the league, as they allowed just nine touchdowns total to running backs last year, and two of those were to David Johnson. Through two weeks, they’ve held the Saints and Steelers running backs to just 152 yards on 49 carries (3.10 YPC) without a single score. Rodgers is just a volume RB3 this week whose stat sheet will look really boring if he doesn’t score. Sims isn’t looking like he’ll be a big factor, as he touched the ball just four times last week. He belongs on waiver wires. Dalvin Cook had another solid outing on a per-touch basis against the Steelers last week, though it would have looked a lot better if his touchdown wasn’t overturned and C.J. Ham wouldn’t have stolen the goal-line plunge on the next play. Still, it’ll be hard to like him as anything more than an RB2 against the Bucs if Keenum is under center, which would limit scoring opportunities. In fact, we don’t know if the Vikings even plan on using Cook around the goal-line, as Latavius Murray may be the short yardage back. The yardage may be capped against a Bucs team that allowed just two running backs to go for more than 90 yards last year. You can feel a lot more confident about his ceiling if Bradford plays, but I wouldn’t bank on that happening. Jerick McKinnon appears to be second in line for touches, but doesn’t deserve consideration in fantasy leagues.
WRs: After last week’s game against the Bears, Mike Evans said, “It was nice seeing single man coverage.” That’s what happens when DeSean Jackson is on the field. Evans will get it again this week, but it won’t be such a pristine matchup as Xavier Rhodes is among the best cornerbacks in the league and over the first two weeks he’s held Michael Thomas to just 5/45/0 and Antonio Brown to just 5/62/0. Evans is always a touchdown away from hitting WR1 status, so I won’t move him out of that category, but he’s not worth his price of admission in DFS this week. As mentioned in the quarterbacks section, Jackson was just inches away from one touchdown (stepped out of bounds) and was overthrown on what would have been another one. Look for them to hook up on a deep ball of two this week, similarly to how speedster Martavis Bryant did last week. While his stat sheet showed 3/91/1, his game was bigger than that, as he drew a pass interference call on a bomb, and continually beat Trae Waynes and Terence Newman in coverage. Jackson should be in lineups as a high-end WR3 in this matchup where the Bucs will likely throw a bit more than they did last week. Adam Humphries isn’t on fantasy radars outside of potential shootouts and this game does not fit that bill. I’ll be honest, I didn’t think that Keenum would destroy Stefon Diggs‘ value the way he did in a plus matchup. Because of that, it’s fair to consider Diggs a risky WR3 until Bradford gets back in the lineup. He’ll draw Brent Grimes in coverage for a majority of this game, and while Grimes was really good last year, he’s been extremely inconsistent throughout his career. If Bradford returns, I’d confidently play Diggs as a WR3 in this matchup. Adam Thielen is in a similar boat as Diggs, though he’s a tier below most weeks. He’d draw Robert McClain in the slot, which is a phenomenal matchup, but it’s hard to say he’s anything more than a WR3/4 with Keenum under center. If Bradford plays, Thielen just might have a bigger game than Diggs – his matchup calls for it.
TEs: Some wanted to start Cameron Brate last week, but when the tight end position is as volatile as it is, why choose someone who is in a timeshare? Rookie O.J. Howard actually out-snapped Brate last week, 46 to 38. Granted, the game was a blowout, but Howard was involved throughout. They each saw three targets, making them difficult to trust against a Vikings defense that allowed just four touchdowns to tight ends in 2016. They did allow Coby Fleener to haul in a touchdown in Week 1, but bounced back strong last week holding Jesse James just four catches for 27 yards. Consider Brate a risky TE2, while Howard should be on fantasy benches until this gets cleared up. Just one year after leading all tight ends in targets, Kyle Rudolph ranks 15th right now with just nine targets through two games. It’s quite disappointing, but he’s made the most of them, hauling in seven passes for 71 yards and a touchdown. The matchup against the Bucs is a good one, too, as they allowed half the tight ends they played in 2016 to reach double-digit scoring in PPR formats. It’s risky trusting him with the lack of targets, but consider him as a mid-to-low-end TE1 this week.
Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Vikings 20
Cleveland Browns (-1.0) at Indianapolis Colts Over/Under: 40.5
It’s just one year after the Browns went 1-15 and they’re now being favored to win on the road despite missing their best defensive player. What a time to be alive. But it honestly may be too small of a line, though, as the Colts are just not a good football team. Andrew Luck was ruled out early in the week, so it’ll be Jacoby Brissett under center once again for the Colts. Top cornerback Vontae Davis has also been on the shelf, but he did return to a limited practice last week, so he may play here. The Browns lost Corey Coleman to a broken hand, so they’ll need other pass-catchers to step up.
QBs: As bad as DeShone Kizer was last week, he should still be considered in 2QB leagues this week and makes for an interesting DFS play. His legs are going to add value a lot of the time, as he’s fifth in the NFL in rushing attempts by quarterbacks, despite missing two quarters of the game in Week 2. The Colts have allowed both Jared Goff and Carson Palmer to finish as top-12 quarterbacks in each of the first two weeks despite throwing just one touchdown apiece and rushing for a combined one yard. It would help if Coleman wasn’t out, but Kizer is a rock-solid QB2 for this game. Jacoby Brissett at least gives the Colts skill position players hope, whereas they were flat out bench players with Scott Tolzien. Dating back to last year, the Browns have held just one quarterback to less than 14.4 fantasy points, which would have been the QB17 in each of the first two weeks. Brissett is definitely on the QB2 radar this week, as he’s someone who’s not afraid to take off running when the pocket breaks down. He’s got three starts under his belt now and in those games, he’s totaled 93 rushing yards and a touchdown. You don’t need to play him in 1QB leagues, but he’s likely going to finish as a top-18 QB play this week.
RBs: Anyone who drafted Isaiah Crowell in the third-round this offseason is likely kicking themselves at this point, but if there’s silver lining to all of this, it’s that he plays the Colts this week. After shutting down the backups of the Cardinals, their stat sheet looks better, but they’ve still allowed the opposing running back at least 15.7 PPR points in 14 of their last 18 games, including 19 touchdowns to them during that span. Crowell is a high-end RB2 this week who should find the end zone. Duke Johnson actually played some snaps at running back last week (didn’t in Week 1) and got four carries. It’s a step in the right direction, but frustrating that he’s not getting more of a look. Maybe totaling 80 yards on seven touches against the Ravens will warrant that. Until we see him get more work, he’s a risky flex play, but we’ve already talked about how good this matchup is. We had a Frank Gore touchdown run last week, something that hadn’t happened since Week 9 of last year. He’s doing exactly as he has the last two years with the Colts, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown from time to time. Did you know that in his 34 games as a Colts running back, he’s topped 100 rushing yards just twice? He needs to score in order to give you great results. There were just four times last year where the Browns didn’t allow a rushing touchdown, but it’s hard to bet on Gore as anything more than a low-end RB2. Marlon Mack didn’t look quite as good in Week 2, but that’s the type of runner he is – all or nothing. When Luck comes back, there should be more room to operate for him. Avoid him in season-long and DFS for now.
WRs: Through two weeks, the Browns free agent signing of Kenny Britt is looking like a bad one, as he has totaled just two catches for 15 yards. Rumors are swirling that he may be cut at some point and it wouldn’t be the worst thing if Corey Coleman was actually healthy. Until then, Britt is going to be involved in the offense. Expect him to pick it up a little bit this week, though I’d prefer to keep him on fantasy benches until we see Kizer actually target him frequently. Someone who was targeted quite a lot last week was Rashard Higgins, who was called up from the practice squad just before the game and wound up playing the more snaps than any Browns receiver last week (55/71) and was targeted 11 times. This may be a connection to watch, as young quarterbacks are very impressionable and you saw Kizer targeting Coleman a ton (13 times) before breaking his hand. I’d prefer to wait and see it happen again before trusting him, but Higgins can be played this week. He has the looks of a WR4 with upside in a plus matchup. If you drafted T.Y. Hilton, this is a matchup where you may actually want to play him as a WR3. The Browns have actually allowed at least one pass catcher to score 15.4 or more PPR points in each one of their last 18 games, whether it be a wide receiver or tight end. Brissett isn’t afraid to throw the ball down the field and hooked up with Hilton on four of six targets last week in a tough matchup. This is a game where he can provide value. Brissett didn’t have chemistry with Donte Moncrief, though, as he targeted him eight times and connected just twice for 18 yards. Moncrief may score a touchdown from time-to-time with Luck out, but predicting that isn’t worth playing him, even against the Browns. He’s just a WR5 until Luck comes back. Kamar Aiken is also off the radar, despite his team-high nine targets last week. He requires consistent plays to amount to anything in fantasy (Colts don’t have that right now), whereas Hilton requires one play to do that.
TEs: Now that Corey Coleman is out for 6-8 weeks, the Browns are going to need some of their guys to step up. David Njoku scored his first touchdown last week, but he’s still splitting time with Seth DeValve, who did play more snaps than Njoku in Week 1, but actually saw decreased usage in Week 2. They are both getting a run, but until one starts playing more than 50 percent of the snaps, it’ll be tough to decide which to play. As of now, Njoku is the one who presents the higher upside. It’d be nice if we had clarity, as the Colts allowed the second-most fantasy points per target to tight ends in 2016. They’ve played against Tyler Higbee and Ifeanyi Momah in the first two weeks, which won’t show you results. It was good to see Jack Doyle produce without Andrew Luck before this matchup, because the Browns continually get destroyed by tight ends. Dating back to last year, there have been 10 tight ends who’ve scored 17 or more DraftKings points against them in their last 17 games, including four tight ends who’ve scored 26 or more points. Doyle should be in the TE1 conversation this week.
Prediction: Browns 26, Colts 23
Miami Dolphins (-6.0) at New York Jets Over/Under: 41.5
It’s apparently the week of the home underdogs, as there are 10 teams at home slated to lose, according to Vegas oddsmakers. None are more likely than the Jets, though, as it seems as if they are really gunning for that No. 1 pick next April. The Dolphins implied team total sits at 23.8 points currently, implying that you can count on three touchdowns out of them this week. Both teams are relatively healthy, so there’s not much to see here. The Dolphins should win this game, though keep in mind that it’s a divisional game, which typically means it’ll be closer than most think.
QBs: Jay Cutler looked solid in his Dolphins debut and that was against one of the better pass rushes in the league, which bodes well for his outlook. His 230-yard, one touchdown performance was similar to what his lines were in Chicago when Adam Gase was there as the offensive coordinator. The Dolphins offense embarrassed the Jets secondary last year when Matt Moore threw for four touchdowns on just 18 attempts. This stat will be referenced every week until the Jets stop it: They have allowed 17 passing touchdowns on the last 155 attempts by starting quarterbacks, or one every 9.1 attempts. Cutler is streamer-worthy as a QB2, but doesn’t reach the QB1 territory with Jay Ajayi limiting his touchdown potential this week. Josh McCown played a lot better last week against the Raiders, but don’t get used to him throwing multiple touchdowns. He has thrown for just 187 yards and 166 yards in his two games and offers nothing on the ground. He’s outside the QB2 range.
RBs: If you watched Ajayi against the Jets last year when they actually had Sheldon Richardson, you know that he’s a must-start this week. In the two games against them, Ajayi rushed for 162 yards and a touchdown. It’s a stat that bears repeating – Jay Ajayi averages 95 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns in wins, but just 30 rushing yards and 0.3 touchdowns in losses. The Dolphins should win this game and Ajayi is an RB1. He received 30 of 31 touches last week, leaving no one else as a consideration. What excuse do the Jets have to play Bilal Powell just 48 snaps over the first two weeks, while Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire combine for 73 snaps? It’s a touchy subject to say a team is tanking, but Powell was someone who dominated for them down the stretch, totaling 552 yards and three touchdowns over the final four games of 2016. But now, he’s just backup material for a 31-year-old running back who averaged 3.7 yards per carry last year. There isn’t a Jets running back that you should be starting right now, as it’s a three-way timeshare on a team that is lucky to score two touchdowns. Powell is always the best bet because he’s the most dynamic of the trio, but he’s simply not getting the snaps to be a consistent contributor. Forte is just an RB4 who lacks upside.
WRs: Some walked away from the Week 2 game against the Chargers as a disappointment for DeVante Parker, but you shouldn’t be one of them. If you read The Primer last week, you’d know that he was going to be matched up with Casey Hayward, who shut down some great wide receivers last year. So to see him snag four balls for 85 yards, you should be excited. He had nine targets, which was the 13th-most among wide receivers in Week 2, and his 85 yards was the 10th-most. His matchup is much better in this game, as he’ll see a mixture of Morris Claiborne and Juston Burris, who have combined to allow nine receptions for 99 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets in coverage this year. Jarvis Landry saw an astronomical 15 targets last week, which was the way to beat the Chargers, and they did. This week is another solid matchup in the slot with Buster Skrine, but his ceiling is limited because Parker has a much better matchup this week. Landry should be a solid WR3 in standard formats and a WR2 in PPR, while Parker should be considered a strong WR3 in all formats. Kenny Stills is always an interesting guy to throw in lineups as a desperation because he’s often the forgotten one, so he’s almost always going to be on the WR4/5 radar. Call me crazy, but I just cannot get on the Jermaine Kearse bandwagon, simply because I’d never feel confident putting him in my lineup. He scores just one touchdown from Russell Wilson on 89 targets, but scores twice on 14 targets from McCown. I’m calling fluke. He may be the best option to choose from on the Jets, but that’s not saying much. I wouldn’t play him outside of the deepest leagues in this matchup. The Dolphins have been prone to allowing big plays over the last year, so it’s possible that Robby Anderson makes a mark on the stat sheet, though he should be on waiver wires in season-long leagues. He’s a better tournament option who’ll be less than two percent owned.
TEs: The Dolphins weren’t lying when they said they had a few plays designed specifically for Julius Thomas – he caught three passes for 26 yards against the Chargers. That may be the extent of it, as the Dolphins have much better options to use outside of the red zone. He’s going to catch 5-8 touchdowns in he remains healthy and this matchup is interesting, as the Jets allowed the third-most touchdowns to tight ends last year. They already allowed one to Charles Clay this season, so Thomas should be considered as a solid touchdown-dependent TE2 this week. Tis the week that Austin Seferian-Jenkins returns to the lineup after serving his two-game suspension. While some are convinced he’ll have a big role, don’t take anything for granted with the Jets offense. It shouldn’t shock you if Will Tye sees more targets than him. This is a great matchup for tight ends, so you can take a shot in your DFS tournament lineups, but I’d give it a week to see how it plays out in season-long leagues.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Jets 16